American professor Christopher Balding losses job

Christopher Balding

Christopher Balding, an American professor of business and economics at HSBC Business School, Peking University Graduate School has lost his job and will leave China.

The academic was a vocal critic of Beijing’s censorship, economic and trade policies. He is also an expert in sovereign wealth funds and has contributed many articles to TR Emeritus (TRE) in the past, commenting on Singapore and its sovereign wealth funds and engaging TRE’s readers as and when he finds time off his busy schedule.

In a posting on his personal blog, Balding said that he was given an “official” reason for his contract not being renewed and was informed of the school’s decision as early as November last year.

Although he had wanted to stay in China, Balding wrote that he had finally decided to leave as he “no longer feels safe” despite being “technically protected”.

The self-professed libertarian leaning professor wrote that has no immediate plans.

 I will announce my future plans, projects, and activities later though I am quite excited about where I will be going what I will be doing.

Balding was a professor of business and economics at HSBC Business School, Peking University Graduate School. He is an expert in sovereign wealth funds, has published in such leading journals as the Review of International Economics, the Journal of Public Economic Theory, and the International Finance Review, on such diverse topics as CDS pricing, the WTO, and the economics of adoption and abortion. His work has been cited by a variety of media outlets including the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times.

Professor Balding received his Phd from the University of California, Irvine and worked in private equity prior to entering academia. He currently blogs at Balding’s World.

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In China, there are 4 T’s that a visitor should refrain from talking about, they are Tibet, TianAnMen, Taiwan and The Party – Christopher Balding.

 

 

 

 

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51 Responses to “American professor Christopher Balding losses job”

  • puitam sing:

    Authoritarian rule relies on using brute force to stay in power.
    It relies on having extreme unfair advantage and absolute power to survive.

    It’s used by rulers who cannot lead . They only know how to rape.

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  • LIONS:

    the GIANT PANDA is angry at being ‘exposed’.
    in Sin city,PAPigs are just as angry should anybody expose them.

    maybe he should just go back to BIG APPLE COUNTRY?

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  • cheap cheaper cheaperest:

    in the early days of singtel tv, the only channel we subscribed was Al Jazeera. we are chinese but we find the reporting in Al Jazeera interesting, especially the unconventional footages.

    then Al Jazeera did the right thing. it reported on the homeless in rich Singapore. then suddenly chicken and hen reasons were given by pap minister why Al Jazeera no longer allowed in Singapore.

    such is what happens to pap regime that looks good on the outside but rotten on the inside, needing underhanded means to quell truth telling. good thing is, it doesn’t work since INTERNET ensures such underhanded means don’t work.

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  • Same in SG.

    Dr Chee
    Cherian George
    Bridget Welsh

    All good samples when you tell negative news on the regime.

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  • KNN:

    I’m surprised that he lasted as long as he did in BeiDa.

    No problem for Balding for his personal finances & career/job aspect. Quite sure he already secured lucrative job offer.

    In fact may be blessing in disguise as he uses the current late economic cycle to get a big jump in salary & perks in a more stable country.

    Very high chance of big recession in the next 2-3 years. With the USD5 trillion of bad debts in China (out of total USD15T debts), the next recession will be China’s Financial Crisis.

    China went from being a net creditor before 2008 GFC to now being a big net debtor, with debts way more than 100% of its GDP.

    Even if Balding not fired now, he’ll be certainly retrenched soon if he continues to work in China.

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  • East 101, Better Than BBC:

    cheap cheaper cheaperest:
    in the early days of singtel tv, the only channel we subscribed was Al Jazeera. we are chinese but we find the reporting in Al Jazeera interesting, especially the unconventional footages.

    then Al Jazeera did the right thing. it reported on the homeless in rich Singapore. then suddenly chicken and hen reasons were given by pap minister why Al Jazeera no longer allowed in Singapore.

    such is what happens to pap regime that looks good on the outside but rotten on the inside, needing underhanded means to quell truth telling. good thing is, it doesn’t work since INTERNET ensures such underhanded means don’t work.

    Al Jazeera, surprisingly had produced a fair number of good investigative documentaries. Go to their site to watch them.

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  • Great Asia:

    Angmoh worshipers must be very angry. Their angmoh god has to leave China.

    All the shallow Asian bananas!

    Ha ha ha!

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  • Cheers:

    Old movie by john wayne – have talents (guns) will travel. All the best !

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    The good Professor Christopher Balding is one of the rare breed of Financial Experts who specialises in Sovereign Wealth Funds & in the area of Global Finance. Hope he settles down with another University & continue to write on great finance articles in a world where truth are being trampled upon. His Sinophile experience will be sought after in the Western World.
    His past articles on Temasek Holdings/GIC, on CPF (National Savings) & on S’pore’s “exalted” foreign reserves (under TH/GIC/MAS) are Classical Reading stuff for those who would like to know what’s going on (behind the veil…) with those Institutions. It was unfortunate that he went quiet on writing about S’pore the past few years.
    Although we may not agree with some of the financial opinions he writes but he’s a rare mind who can see things differently/independently unlike the “rah-rah” Mainstream Media & Institutional (Broking houses, Economic research companies) Financial Reporting & Forecasting which were only capable of publishing ‘Clear Sky & Sunny Days’ financial reports/forecast without critical analyses.

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  • Bystander:

    Such good bed fellows, the CCP and the PAP Govts, could shake hands?

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  • HarderTruths:

    I only see these whites criticizing Asia.
    How about US UK EU economically trying to screw Asians?
    Always remember that a white man appears to be on your side when it suits him.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    For a highly placed person such as Christopher Balding, the topic on fiduciary relationship between Govt. and its’ citizen is a game of chicken. If someone doesn’t open their eyes, there’s going to be a terrible crash. Every Government arm themselves to the teeth against the ‘bloodthirsty mobs’ in their imagination. But the anger is not against a foreign entity, it lives inside themselves–and it is getting worse. The world economy is in a liquidity trap. With escalating trade-wars, interest rates, monetary policy is nearing the end of its effectiveness. We’ve hit the GDP plateau. Our SWF economic analysis has long been treated the way that shamans treat their fetishes. In other words, the sizzle is all that matters, not the steak.
    Our current economy is based on making a few people rich on the backs of the rest and is greed driven – hardly a recipe for a great country. While I haven’t check the numbers, my guess is the velocity money is stagnant and has been for some time. There is real economic and social misery in this country–and it is getting worse. Those who are dismissive of this reality usually are the ones who don’t live near it but high on the ivory tower.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-diaz:
    Money velocity is probably either contracting or negative. Don’t forget, the corporations & households in S’pore are heavily indebted – they need to either deleverage their positions or maintain their status quo by cutting costs (corporations) or by constricting their consumption pattern (households).
    S’pore is falling down the slippery road of Economic decline. The one that are making it in PAP’s political aristocracy eco-system are their political sycopants & cronies. Cheapskates MPs who can’t afford a S’pore Island Country Club Golf membership but used their political privileges to play golf in Yishun for free @ Orchid Country Club. They compounded it by driving expensive “Look-at-me” type of conspicuous consumption cars like McLaren or a Bentley to park there just to needle the common folks who patronized Orchid CC.
    LINK: http://theindependent.sg/netizen-alleges-that-pap-mps-drive-luxury-cars-and-play-golf-at-yishun-country-club-without-paying-for-membership/

    Haigen-diaz: While I haven’t check the numbers, my guess is the velocity money is stagnant and has been for some time. There is real economic and social misery in this country–and it is getting worse. Those who are dismissive of this reality usually are the ones who don’t live near it but high on the ivory tower.

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  • clown pap and S$m gang:

    Bystander:
    Such good bed fellows, the CCP and the PAP Govts, could shake hands?

    shake hands?

    can they?

    didn’t that pap departed evil lky jail other humans made in the same image as his make on fake charges of being communists?

    if communists are so bad in pap departed evil lky vocabulary can anyone from clown pap and S$m gang today with good conscience say communists are good and so shake hands?

    if they shake hands, someone has lied.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @ Rabble-rouser
    I believe they’re playing under the NTUC Union Corporate membership. Driving McLaren or a Bentley and can’t afford the membership? More like ‘sway kwan and ‘chow kwan’ That’s why sneek-play on weekdays or else the Individual Gold members playing on weekends will complain. You say çheapskates bor?

    Rabble-rouser:
    @ Haigen-diaz:
    Cheapskates MPs who can’t afford a S’pore Island Country Club Golf membership but used their political privileges to play golf in Yishun for free @ Orchid Country Club. They compounded it by driving expensive “Look-at-me” type of conspicuous consumption cars like McLaren or a Bentley to park there just to needle the common folks who patronized Orchid CC.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    Concur. The velocity of money has to do with domestic commerce, not international, not financial transactions. Our household, corporate, and governmental debt are all substantial … The need to grow the our economy to service debt sure won’t make it. But debt can only be positively resolved by either spending less or making more. I cannot imagine avoiding a period of consuming less… Maybe the employment slack is wider than reported. Many PAP leaders recognize that CPF scheme is in danger of running out of money, and that such an occurrence would be a disaster. CPF payouts are not funded by the general budget, they are funded by CPF members, and this fund must be kept solvent. After a potential 45 years in the workforce people can be just plain TIRED, not to mention fed up with corporatacracy and simply want to be free to live life on their own path. I believe a majority of working people will wake from their learned helplessness at some point in this century. I think it will end up being a generational thing. Also raising the retirement age really isn’t that great of an idea.

    Rabble-rouser:
    @ Haigen-diaz:
    Money velocity is probably either contracting or negative. Don’t forget, the corporations & households in S’pore are heavily indebted – they need to either deleverage their positions or maintain their status quo by cutting costs (corporations) or by constricting their consumption pattern (households).

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Bad politics & extremely poor behaviour of “aristocratic” politicians exploiting political privileges were what the PAP leadership are portraying to the voting electorate. Much like the MOE stance on teachers having to pay to park in school parking compounds & the so-called ‘Clean Wage’ Policy. Then the discovery of the $365 parking fee for island-wide parking privilege/no time limit for MPs & whosoever creating mass irate on the people. And MP’s allowances are definitely greater than Teacher’s salaries. Plus teachers spent great time in schools educating our kids/doing administrative work imposed by MOE. More time than MPs’ attending Parliamentary sessions. In fact, their Parliamentary absenteeism were so evident that it’s a national disgrace. S’pore politics are mere “Wayang-ism” – an autocractic regime masquerading as a democracy & generously paying “Actor” MPs to play out. It has come to that!

    Haigen-diaz:
    @ Rabble-rouser
    I believe they’re playing under the NTUC Union Corporate membership. Driving McLaren or a Bentley and can’t afford the membership? More like ‘sway kwan and ‘chow kwan’ That’s why sneek-play on weekdays or else the Individual Gold members playing on weekends will complain. You say çheapskates bor?

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-diaz:
    Unlike the US & the Developed Western Economy, S’pore under the PAP can’t make more money from their present Economic Model. S’pore economy is an indirect service economy highly dependent & configured on global trade flows. The PAP govt were relying on massive inputs of capital flows from Globalisation (MNC profit shielding, tax avoidance); from money laundering (1MBD, illicit funds); & capital flight (safe haven, Chinese mass capital flight) in order to work the economy re: just to crank it around since domestically, the local economy is already kaput! And their model is under massive threats going forward.
    S’pore just don’t have the technology, the critical innovators nor the innate creativity to manage new industries nor to participate in the innovative industries. The PAP were simply doing the same old, same old over & over again. In Electricity generation, the PAP were focusing on fossil fuels while developed nations were investing on renewable energy systems; in water recycling, they’re using the obsolete RO system which is a high energy consumption method when there is already a technological breakthrough using graphite coated membranes.

    Haigen-diaz:
    @ Rabble-rouser
    Concur. The velocity of money has to do with domestic commerce, not international, not financial transactions. Our household, corporate, and governmental debt are all substantial … The need to grow the our economy to service debt sure won’t make it. But debt can only be positively resolved by either spending less or making more. I cannot imagine avoiding a period of consuming less… Maybe the employment slack is wider than reported. Many PAP leaders recognize that CPF scheme is in danger of running out of money, and that such an occurrence would be a disaster. CPF payouts are not funded by the general budget, they are funded by CPF members, and this fund must be kept solvent. After a potential 45 years in the workforce people can be just plain TIRED, not to mention fed up with corporatacracy and simply want to be free to live life on their own path. I believe a majority of working people will wake from their learned helplessness at some point in this century. I think it will end up being a generational thing. Also raising the retirement age really isn’t that great of an idea.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-diaz:
    You must have already read about the cyberhacking of SingHealth’s 1.5m medical records which included PM LHL’s medical information. Methinks it’s must be a well-planned & systematic cyber-attack made for a certain agenda & for specific reasons. If not, why do it? And it is very disconcerting to find out how easy it was for cyberhackers to penetrate the firewalls & breach the security mechanism of SingHealth’s servers & IT security defenses. Employ Indian programmers under CECA scheme & come up with a wonky IT system which Cyberhackers could easily steal data. Ha-ha-ha-ha!
    More likely, it must be foreign elements who are doing this with assistance from local inputs read: CECA Indian programmers. A cyberhacking of medical records from S’pore might have tremendous political possibilities & grevious threats – population health weaknesses, general predisposition to certain diseases & the health of PM LHL.
    Next up, cyberhacking of Temasek Holding’s 2nd book financial data & ‘veiled’ investment portfolio. Any WikiLeaks divulging of such critical information would opened a lot of eyes in the still sleeping S’pore electorate. LOL!

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @ Rabble-rouser
    Tens of billions of our tax dollars has been spent on making us into a smart city. Yet, our governmental agencies have given our foreign enemies massive buffets of sensitive information that can cause serious threats and pain for its’ citizens. Everything is now accessible on the net, thanks to short sighted idiots who think network encryption works. Now all they use are firewalls that can be breached by inventive hackers. I thought the Govt. already mandated all sensitive government systems should be isolated from all access to public networks? I’ve a feeling that other identity thefts besides the SingHealth’s data breach are still undetected, and we may soon be hit by a tidal wave of fraudulent financial activity. In any case, such breaches also represents a grave threat to our national security. The outrage in all of this is that they have acted too late in dealing with the hacking…… I have come to the conclusion that trying to protect our national interest and security is hopeless due to the fact that so many foreign nationals without serious background checks are working at stations with access to data. This latest development compound the insecurity and vulnerability of our smart city and raises a lot of questions that are as yet unanswered. So, for the time being, homeland security can be considered a joke.

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  • dolphin81:

    On Prof Balding leaving PRC, let us not speculate too much for the reasons.

    It is likely the authorities simply do not want any foreign academic or foreign academic group to establish a firm foothold inside the country. Usually, only those recognised as “friends of China” are given some kind of long term privilege.

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  • oxygen:

    BRILLIANT EXPOSITION from @ Rabble-rouser and @ Haigen-diaz in this thread – just read it.

    Me thinks CPF/housing nexus will end up badly stitching a lot of dummies living beyond their means – they think the use of CPF to front load downpayment for property mortgage is their answer to fantasy dreamland.

    They are ALL WRONG – the burden of irrational exuberant lifestyle carries their mortgage indefinitely forward (until it is fully paid up) – any accident which thereafter triggered short-circuiting the CONTINUING ABILITIES TO FUND CONTINUING MORTGAGE LIABILITIES beyond the first downpayment is going to see the end of Alice-living-in-wonderland-amusement park.

    Given low interest rate environment prevailing, central bankers has no room to cut interest rate to resuscitate a sinking economy. Household/sovereign debt overload guarantees no banker will lend or no borrowers around except the desperate sinking borrowing more to cover existing overloaded debt recycling.

    It is our sub-prime similar to what experienced in US/EU before 2009 GFC crash – with property values sinking to depth unthinkable in which equity and CPF money bundled in the over-extended mortgage all wiped out for many. Taking on a mortgage with CPF is nearly as bad at extending your mortgage size to affordability of just paying interest, no capital requirement or inadequate capital provision upfront.

    A major downswing – not improbable outcome of massive asset & risks repricing – in the aftermath of escalated Trump’s trade war now spreading into contagion in the currency market. This is NOT SCAREMONGERING – the financial markets DON’T LIE.

    AFTER PAPpy Wong slapped in 5% ABSD, the stock market next day slapped property investors with a 15% devaluation of share valuation of both UOL and City Development overnight. This is before the MAIN COURSE – just the appetizer OF WHAT COULD COME IN THE ASSET REPRICING MASSACRE looming. Before the storm, financial market is already warning of risks of 15% decline in property prices.

    WHEN TRUMP TRADE AND CURRENCY WAR IMPLODE TO FULL BLOSSOM – expect the UNEXPECTED – a 30% to 40% from peak to bottom could eventuate- A FINANCIAL NIGHTMARE AWAITS THOSE WHO HAVE COMMITTED.

    On a property/mortgage risk costing $1.5 million exposure – a 30% to 40% fall in property values is going to wipe out $0.5 million to $0.6 million of invested risks. How many of those property mad rushing buying can take losses of $0.5 million to $0.6 million without wiping out their equity and CPF injection – IF THEY RELIED ON CPF contribution to fund this gamble?

    IF THEY ARE CLEAN OUT – the next generation will live in dire poverty of financially-broken family.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-diaz:
    Well said, Bro! The men-in-whites don’t fully understand the new parameters for war & the different landscape for future conflicts. It’s not the full frontal all-out, confrontational kind of first-shooter video games. Instead it’s a global digital format war being fought in cyberspace; stealing of vital information, creating chaos with leaking sensitive information, disrupting the economy & altering eventual outcomes using distorted info & data. THIS IS CALLED CYBERWAR!
    They spent millions (billions?) in scholarship monies for foreigners instead of investing in a local core of cyber-smart defenders (politicizing the economy & marginalizing locals). Then they compound it by employing armies of Indian programmers under CECA to expedite the IT learning curve. Too smart by half ie. the PAP so-called monopoly on wisdom & knowledge. In the process, our national interest and homeland security goes down the tube because like you rightly said “foreign nationals without serious background checks are working at stations with access to data.” Look like data breaches will occur with frequent regularity much like the MRT breakdowns.

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  • Anon:

    Associate Professors like Christopher Balding do not have tenure in their own country so I am not surprised he is on term contract which may not be renewed when it expires.

    For those not familiar with the academic scene in the US and now quite globally, tenure is given for high quality publications in top rated journals (what is often called at least 3-4* journals which all academics in Business Schools are familiar with. Looking at his CV and especially at his journal publications I can say they are not published in these high quality journals. Hence, it may well be that a top university like the University of Peking does not consider him good enough to be retained, and not just because he is critical.

    One has to ask, why he went to Peking University from Irving; was it because he could not get a tenure-track position in the US? And that because he did not have good publications? Many ‘ang mo’s’ go to the East, including Singapore, because they are unable to secure a permanent position in their home countries and because it is easier to be accepted in the East. I know quite a few in Singapore who come under this category; they have done well there. Better than if they had stayed at home because the competition is far more intense.

    So, Christopher Balding contract has not been extended; so what? He is not a major intellectual figure in the world of Business Schools!

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    Not only for the property market, Mate! Look at the lagged Infrastructural Spending requirements for S’pore as a result of the massive population growth (between 2004-2011). It comes at a time when capital resources are going to be scarce (ie. Interest rate yield curve inverting). S’pore under the PAP will be facing a highly inflationary period as costs have to go up (already went up for water, electricity & consumption re: GST). Yet our economic model is failing because we’re configured for global growth at a time of a trade war brewing, countries looking inwards, hostilities emerging (M’sia), etc. S’pore is thoroughly screwed because the PAP govt, the corporations & households are all heavily levered with debts & liabilities. At a time where there is no room for making financial mistakes & needing lots of savings but everyone in S’pore are thoroughly cash-poor & need to borrow heavily just to maintain the status quo going. The financial equation is bleak for S’pore & lots of people are going to be cooked eg, bankruptcy & foreclosures, etc.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @ Rabble-rouser, Oxygen
    Expanding and spending on infrastructure with 21st century improvements is the kindling that would ignite our economy. But we have elected precisely the wrong people to enact this obvious pathway. Starting 2004, good-paying jobs of all shapes and sizes that once belonged to the boomers simply evaporated and gradually “outsourced” to foreigners that will work for half the price. In order to keep up appearances of improving GDP and ignoring the hollowing out of our economy, the Govt. lost its’ focus while promoting globalization. From the stock markets, to bond prices, to urban real estate, to commodities, there has been an incessant run up in asset prices since 2004. All these borrowings is generating billions of dollars to chase investment assets. It is causing a massive distortion in the economy, and is, in fact, the number one reason for the increase in wealth/social inequality. With investment asset ownership heavily concentrated on the 5%, the massive liquidity is simply a giveaway to the wealthy. We have seen tremendous, just breathtaking asset price inflation. All of these measures were sold to the middle and lower classes as wealth generating policies that would benefit all. But now they’re mortally wounded and could be wiped out in this country without socially collective insight and action. The back-and-forth contentions of class economics, with fallacies challenged by charts and graphs, with simple debates shredding logic the recognition of common sense, only hides the real economic issues buried with the arena of political economy. As soon as any recovery (or even before, based on our huge debt, the cost of water, electricity & consumption re: GST and food), we will see spiraling inflation, perhaps hyper-inflation, in order to normalize these costs. Fiscal restraint, cutting the debt, reducing spending and revamping our socio-economic and political dynamics. We have a tough road to hoe.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-diaz, oxygen:
    Another brilliant analyses by our bro-in-arms, Haigen-diaz! I couldn’t write anything better than that. I encourage TRE readers to read it before it’s too late.
    Everything in the current global economy are expanding asset bubbles corresponding with growing debt bubbles that had been encouraged by the Central Banks’ massive inflating of liquidity to create cheap credit just to generate “fake” growth. But the Asset price escalation/debt expansion/central bank cheap credit policy Nexus can’t continue forever. Like a puppy chasing after it’s own tail to infinity, the puppy will be exhausted after a series of running around in circles – then the realisation hits (the tail can’t be caught because it’s connected to the puppy) so the puppy either collapsed from exhaustion or die from it’s exertions. LOL! If you see the global market dynamics re: from US Stockmarket to S’pore property market – it’s akin to Ivan Pavlov’s classical conditioning mechanism for dogs’ salivation upon ringing a bell. US stockmarket mantra “Buy on the Farking Dip” to S’pore’s condo buyers herd instinct to capture choice units were all Pavlov’s theory proven true in real life! In truth is that investing had become a greater fool game of unimaginable proportions. Growth was simply a mirage!
    The future is dim because I predict hyperinflation over the horizon (essentials prices becoming unaffordable – Venezuela), asset prices fall rock bottom, high interest rates & austerity programs everywhere. Those with capital will be king! The rest will be debt serfs or wage slaves in a future where jobs will be scarce!

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    Bro, thank you…All our kindred bros-in-arms in TRE grasp what is ‘asset inflation’ now. My two-cents is now worth twenty. lol.

    Rabble-rouser:
    @ Haigen-diaz:
    Another brilliant analyses by our bro-in-arms, Haigen-diaz! I couldn’t write anything better than that. I encourage TRE readers to read it before it’s too late.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser, @ Haigen Diaz

    PAVLOV’S DOG INDEED OF STUPIDITY all too keenly displayed public trying to beat PAPpy Wong’s caning deadline. City Devt & UOL sank 15% next day proved beyond all doubt that property market is over-inflated – a multiplier of 300% over-inflated valuation relative to Wong’s 5% caning whack represented.

    Idiots thinking that they can proper from over-extended debt leverage are nearly completely moron of intelligence. They live in the illusion that the yields on debt exceed the costs of debt i.e. THE PRODUCTIVITY OF DEBT EXCEEDS THE PRODUCTIVITY OF CAPITAL. The risks is two folds – wrong timing like the en bloc mad chase for 9 months of property fever, only to have PAPpys Wong taking out the fat cane. The other risk is financial of nature. The asset bubble can only sustain IF INFLATION FIRE RAGES ON – but that destroys economy forcing central banks reaction like MAS and PAPpy Wong timely caning. This CUT OFF the UPSIDE of inflation-fueled mirage of fake wealth in asset bubble economy.The DOWNSIDE SQUEEZE comes in rising costs of capital AS INTEREST RATE FROM CURRENT LOW MUST RISE because cheap money fuel asset bubbles instead of fuel economy. Squeezed from both the top and below, HOW CAN THE PRODUCTIVITY OF DEBT EXCEEDS THE COSTS OF CAPITAL FINANCING except a money losing proposition?

    PAVLOV’S DOGS INDEED RUSHING TO THE SLAUGHTER BEFORE PAPpy Wong caning stop them on track to sad self-destruction.

    Rabble-rouser: Everything in the current global economy are expanding asset bubbles corresponding with growing debt bubbles that had been encouraged by the Central Banks’ massive inflating of liquidity to create cheap credit just to generate “fake” growth. But the Asset price escalation/debt expansion/central bank cheap credit policy Nexus can’t continue forever. Like a puppy chasing after it’s own tail to infinity, the puppy will be exhausted after a series of running around in circles – then the realisation hits (the tail can’t be caught because it’s connected to the puppy) so the puppy either collapsed from exhaustion or die from it’s exertions. LOL! If you see the global market dynamics re: from US Stockmarket to S’pore property market – it’s akin to Ivan Pavlov’s classical conditioning mechanism for dogs’ salivation upon ringing a bell. US stockmarket mantra “Buy on the Farking Dip” to S’pore’s condo buyers herd instinct to capture choice units were all Pavlov’s theory proven true in real life! In truth is that investing had become a greater fool game of unimaginable proportions. Growth was simply a mirage!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Anon

    THOSE WHO HAVE SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL MARKET EXPERIENCES BEFORE GOING INTO ACADEMIA live in an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT ORBIT from those with prestigious doctorate degrees from Ivy League universities with NO FINANCIAL MARKET EXPERIENCE.

    THIS IS REALITY – so you can’t fault Professor Balding for his lack of publications in 3-4* academic journals.

    The GFC COMPLETELY DISCREDITED THE ACADEMIC FINANCE TEACHING – particularly the cornerstone of high finance thought of EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS (CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL – CPM in short) Nobel-prize winning scholarly publications. CPM postulates asset prices are efficiently-priced to fundamental and any mispricing of risks is quickly rebalanced by market action to fair pricing to risks relativity.

    UTTER NONSENSE – the sub-prime implosion proved the COMPLETE REVERSE. The 3-wise monkeys I call them namely Markowitz, Sharpe et al – ALL DIAM DIAM DIAM. Another distinguished finance professor, Eugene Fama – also without market experience – used the same dataset as Markowitz et al, restructured its analytical framework and come up with contradictory conclusion a few years later.

    SO MUCH FOR ACADEMIC RIGOR & PUBLISHING.

    Anon: Associate Professors like Christopher Balding do not have tenure in their own country so I am not surprised he is on term contract which may not be renewed when it expires.

    For those not familiar with the academic scene in the US and now quite globally, tenure is given for high quality publications in top rated journals (what is often called at least 3-4* journals which all academics in Business Schools are familiar with. Looking at his CV and especially at his journal publications I can say they are not published in these high quality journals. Hence, it may well be that a top university like the University of Peking does not consider him good enough to be retained, and not just because he is critical.

    One has to ask, why he went to Peking University from Irving; was it because he could not get a tenure-track position in the US? And that because he did not have good publications? Many ‘ang mo’s’ go to the East, including Singapore, because they are unable to secure a permanent position in their home countries and because it is easier to be accepted in the East. I know quite a few in Singapore who come under this category; they have done well there. Better than if they had stayed at home because the competition is far more intense.

    So, Christopher Balding contract has not been extended; so what? He is not a major intellectual figure in the world of Business Schools!

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    Finance is a subset of the broader Economics field & indirectly influenced through politics (policy, vested interest groups), psychology (greed, fear) & sociology (herd instinct). Many of the high priests of the finance world were revealed as false prophets & charlatans because they looked at high finance in total isolation & used flawed data sets thus compromised their logic in postulating their eventual findings. In short, they had “no skin in the game”. And when they had skin in the game, they always crashed & burned re: Long Term Capital (LTCM in 1998), Michael Milken (Drexel & Junk Bonds fiasco), GFC & the mortgage fraud, pooled securitized investments/ratings agencies debacle, crypto currencies, etc. Unfortunately, finance is a dynamic & a high octane field which constantly shifts & ‘crash & Burn’. The rewards are great but few ever achieved it. For many, tales of woe & sorrow abounds greatly. I lived it & I survived to tell. Understanding it is simple but unfortunately, not many gets it because the herd instinct, fear & greed are strong.

    oxygen: The GFC COMPLETELY DISCREDITED THE ACADEMIC FINANCE TEACHING – particularly the cornerstone of high finance thought of EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS (CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL – CPM in short) Nobel-prize winning scholarly publications. CPM postulates asset prices are efficiently-priced to fundamental and any mispricing of risks is quickly rebalanced by market action to fair pricing to risks relativity.

    UTTER NONSENSE – the sub-prime implosion proved the COMPLETE REVERSE. The 3-wise monkeys I call them namely Markowitz, Sharpe et al – ALL DIAM DIAM DIAM. Another distinguished finance professor, Eugene Fama – also without market experience – used the same dataset as Markowitz et al, restructured its analytical framework and come up with contradictory conclusion a few years later.

    SO MUCH FOR ACADEMIC RIGOR & PUBLISHING.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    That is why @Anon above in this thread is wrong of focusing on academic publishing as “proof” of intellectual prowess, at least in the field of finance which as you pointed out correctly dynamic and a high octane field of few success and a sea of floating skeletons in legacy after each tumultuous crash.

    Rabble-rouser: And when they had skin in the game, they always crashed & burned re: Long Term Capital (LTCM in 1998), Michael Milken (Drexel & Junk Bonds fiasco), GFC & the mortgage fraud, pooled securitized investments/ratings agencies debacle, crypto currencies, etc. Unfortunately, finance is a dynamic & a high octane field which constantly shifts & ‘crash & Burn’. The rewards are great but few ever achieved it. For many, tales of woe & sorrow abounds greatly.

    @ Anon above might not be aware of the scandalous reputation of Nobel Prize winning in economics/finance in the practical world. If only he/she reads this caption.

    Investopedia: What was ‘Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)’
    Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) was a large hedge fund led by Nobel Prize-winning economists and renowned Wall Street traders that nearly collapsed the global financial system in 1998. This was due to LTCM’s high-risk arbitrage trading strategies.

    The LTCM fund formed in 1993 and was founded by renowned Salomon Brothers bond trader John Meriwether.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longtermcapital.asp

    Welcome to the real world.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    GIVEN WALL STREET ALMOST WHOLESALE BURNT CRASH OF CAREERS FROM IVY LEAGUE UNIVERSITIES and the awesome failure track of Nobel Prize economics/finance winners in the practical world as well, IT IS NO SURPRISE TO ME THAT SWFs – not obvious names need mentioning here – inhabited by scholastic track from similar Ivy Leaque universities are MONUMENTAL FAILURES.

    They are TOO STUPID TO EVEN BEGIN TO DISCOVER THEY ARE STUPID TO IMPOSSIBILITY.

    Scholars are just scholars – they refugee camps are the universities – never in the outside world of practical reality challenges.

    IF YOU PUT THEM IN HEDGE FUND MANAGERS role, they will fail so fast that reputation legacy leaves them UNEMPLOYABLE in that industry. The idea that scholars are clever is plain stupid – only the performers outsmart, outwit and out run competitors in the real world are the clever ones.

    Ever wonder why so many of the tech bosses from Gates to Jobs are university dropouts?

    SCHOLARS ARE JUST FLASH IN A PAN.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    The sudden clamping down of the bouyant S’pore property market after 9 months of rising expectations has many hidden consequences.
    Noticed that the S’pore Economy is in the throes of a cost push (hyper?) inflationary state – the PAP are fast pushing essential service prices upward in a rocket trajectory. The smell of Financial crisis (a cash crunch) & Investment failures (Temasek’s sinking portfolio, Hyflux debacle, GLC limp performances, high debts, heavy liabilities, etc) are looming just below the calm water surface. The MSM paints an optimistic view of the future but below the water line lies a series of sunken ships & investment debris that has the hallmark of PAP’s poor Economic Management.
    After the disastrous 2017, the hollowing out (Broadcom) continues unabated. Tech giant IBM is relocating to Mexico & had laid off 600 staff from it’s Tampines plant within 3 months. The PAP never looked like having an alternative Plan B in case Plan A fails. And Plan A has configured the S’pore Economy to Global trade & financial inflows along with Infrastructural Spending & Construction. Kinda stupid!
    Along Bartley Road East viaduct lies massive earthworks & impending construction projects along Paya Lebar, Ubi & Tampines as you travel eastward. Towards the end of the viaduct reaching Tampines are massive sand stockpiles kept for future construction projects. This is the confirmation sign of PAP’s GDP growth addiction & senseless strategy.
    But the global scene are playing a different tune – the trade wars are morphing into a potential currency war scenario with financial consequences re:US$. Developed Economies are shutting their doors to immigration, looking inwards for sustainable growth, forgoing international trade as tariff structures begins to be erected. Instead they are looking at bilateral trade & mutual benefits between partners. S’pore is located in a hostile neighbourhood & has a belligerent China that dominates the neighbourhood.
    Look at the recent weather patterns, extreme weather in many countries creating unpredictability in food production. S’pore & the PAP are engorged with humongous debts created by cheap credit policy from developed economies Central Banks. But hey! everyone in S’pore is still so happy & oblivious to Global matters. Eat & be merry!

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    Excellent summation of the problems by Rabble-rouser & Oxygen. Actually, we have two monetary systems, one among the very rich who trade funds among themselves through all manner of investments and bets, and the other among the masses, which we call “the economy.” The rich have driven the creation of two monetary systems to create this disparity to increase their relative wealth. It is the sheer force of economic inequality that has created the two systems out of what we have always perceived as one system. It’s true, these two monetary systems are connected, even inter-related, but perhaps no more than any other currencies or monetary systems are. In a recession, everyone lost a certain amount of absolute wealth, but the rich lost relatively less wealth than everyone else. We need to identify segments that are at risk and develop well thought out plans. The property market is extremely overvalued and appears that the financial markets may have reached that point. News of price increases like increased ABSD, LTD, DC, spurs investor enthusiasm which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increase and bringing in a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about the real value of the investment, are drawn to it partly through envy of others’ successes and partly through a gambler’s excitement. I think what scares the PAP the most is some long-overdue regulatory bursting of their own bubble, blown to unsustainable proportions by sheer force of excessive and toxic hot air. Our economic model is already foregone broken. The answer is the market is NOT falling because of trade war scares. It’s falling because stocks are overvalued (look at the P/E), expectations of strong global growth are already baked in, bond yields are rising, the Fed is raising short term rates, the Fed is embarking on quantitative tightening, the yield curve is flattening and the Trump administration is going after big tech, which has been driving the whole market. When everyone is long and bullish, it’s easy for the market to fall under its own weight. Trade wars are a symptom of the general stagnation of the world economy. It is only a fight for the shrinking pie of profits. Once investor preferences shift from speculation toward risk-aversion, extreme valuations should not be ignored, and can suddenly matter to their full extent. The trade ware is one of many reasons to be prudent and move more into cash.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-diaz:
    Absolutely spot on! There are two monetary system in the Global Economy. The 1st monetary system is the Wall Street Banksters system. The US Wall Street Banksters actually controlled the US Federal Reserve & indirectly controlled the US govt’s fiscal & monetary policies through political contributions & largesse to US law makers. Most of the US laws passed actually benefit & protect the bankers from criminal acts & from fraudulent actions.
    The rich monetary system aka the Banksters monetary system is a direct beneficiary from the US Fed cheap credit policy (QEs, ZIRP). No-interest source of funds, virtual creation of immense liquidity through the fractional banking system – US Banksters create financial vehicles (Private Equity Funds, Hedge Funds, Venture Capital Funds, Seed money providers, etc) to influence the FINANCIALIZATION of the global economy. Having the 1st mover advantage, they maneuver to push up asset price inflation (asset bubbles) globally because they can. In addition, it is a US Hegemony strategy to push other economies to be indebted to the US$ being the world’s reserve currency & the only currency with sufficient liquidity for borrowing purposes.
    You see, the Banksters monetary system plays a greater fool game. It shifts the asset price inflation game over to the Classic monetary system (the 2nd & traditional lending/borrowing system) & takes profit from it. In the lending/borrowing monetary economy, it’s a matter of conditioning the market to react to stimulus & concerted actions of a few eg. Buy on the farkin’ dip, EnBloc sales of properties, etc. The asset market then takes a life of it’s own while the Banksters banked in their proceeds from the game. Even SWFs & non-US players fall victim to the US Wall Street operators – they (Wall Street) have no funding costs (ZIRP) & can virtually create money out of thin air. Unlike SWFs like Temasek/GIC who have to accumulate capital or borrow money (US$) to invest. That’s why the Asian & non-US Global economy end up being highly indebted & addicted to US$ funding mechanism.
    Trump’s trade war, US Fed tapering, US belligerent actions & hostile foreign policy to boost US$ – they’re are tipping the advantage to US Hegemony. There are Greater Minds at play here.

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  • Flickshit:

    If you want to be rich and famous. Join PAP and be a PAPPY puppy. You will become rich and famous in no time. Welcome to our PAPPY Dog Camp.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Flickshit

    MOST OF THE TIME, Pavlov’s PAPpy dogs SALIVATES in desperate hunger UNMET. Most dictatorship looks after their own inner circle only, the rest are just used doggies in history.

    Chinese wisdom saying has it that no banquet lasts forever, those who comes in late is just in time to do the dishes.

    PAPpy puppy thinks buy-property-vote-PAPpy is stairway to Heavenly wealth and fame – PAPpy Wong cane the lot – most them them who bought in the last 15 years are trapped with no upside, only downside as the economy grinds to a declining trajectory. PAPpy Wong & MAS are ever ready with a big sledgehammer ready to smash the puppy playing with property price bubble fire.

    So you are naively wrong in this one.

    Flickshit: If you want to be rich and famous. Join PAP and be a PAPPY puppy. You will become rich and famous in no time. Welcome to our PAPPY Dog Camp.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @ Rabble-rouser
    Thanks for the lucid comments. We’re not talking just parasitic class. We’re talking about a depraved form of “humanity” that has the U.S. — and by extension, the world — in a death wish of greed. These banksters are like three-year-olds who are used to having their way in a candy store without adult supervision. The Glass–Steagall Act, or the Banking Act of 1933, separated commercial and investment banking. Under those regulations, the US prospered in the fifties and sixties, and the middle class flourished. Commercial banking was known for being prudent and conservative. With the repeal of two provisions of the Banking Act in 1999, “the great wall” between the two types of banking institutions crumbled, and it wasn’t long before we had what nearly became a global financial meltdown. Mortgage derivatives, something that never would have been allowed under Glass–Steagall, played a significant role in the crisis. The problem is the leveraged bubble and many banks were insolvent (with no FDIC; plus small banks that never loaned money on stocks put their money in the big banks that did, and so were also insolvent). In response, Glass-Steagall was passed, making leveraged bubbles impossible. But (as the financial industry saw it) it imposed a Glass ceiling on their profits, so that great economist Summers pontificated that banking no longer needed Glass-Steagall, and Clinton had no trouble pushing its repeal through a receptive Congress. After that repeal, banks started by loaning money on real estate (not stocks), since everyone ‘knew’ that real estate prices can’t crash. Then the new and greatly improved bubble burst in ’08, just as the old one did in ’29. The moneyed sicknesses go on. In much of the coverage of the disgusting manipulation passing as business as usual on Wall Street, what s*ake oil salesmen like Goldman Sachs have been foisting on the public are often referred to as products–financial products. The use of the word products suggests something useful, something imbued with constructive qualities. Nothing could be less accurate. Credit default swaps, derivatives, complicated trading machinations, are nothing but scams. There is no “product” nothing but an opportunity for scam artists to bilk hapless investors and run off with their money. These weasels don’ make anything, don’t contribute to the welfare of the country or improve the common good. The USA is already neck-deep in debt of $21 trillion (2Q2018), 99% of consumers are tapped out, US private debt is highest in the world (savings at the bottom), so there’s no source of wealth left to steal except to start the global trade wars.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    OI OI OI, HAVE YOU HEARD THE HOTTEST BREAKING NEWS PROPERTY NEWS YET? Here it comes –

    The Tre Ver Condo to offer “significant 10 per cent discount” at Phase 1
    launch

    http://finance.theindependent.sg/the-tre-ver-condo-to-offer-significant-10-per-cent-discount-at-phase-1-launch/

    Rabble-rouser: The sudden clamping down of the bouyant S’pore property market after 9 months of rising expectations has many hidden consequences.

    @ Flickshit have not heard of it yet? Here is what the developers – UOL et.all – says

    Jesline Goh, senior general manager for asset management and marketing, UOL:“In the vicinity, we know that projects have achieved an overall average of around $1,750 psf. If not for the recent curbs, we would have priced this project at around this level. We are now giving a discount of more than 10 percent for our Phase 1 launch.

    @ Rabble-rouser, IN ONE FELL SWOOP, UOL UNDERCUT COMPETITORS SELLING ITS DEVELOPMENT AT 10% DISCOUNT AFTER THE LAST ABSD MEASURES OF PAPpy Wong. This is how damaging of “serious consequences” for those PAPpy fools who bought in the last 9 months of en bloc insanity fever. The properties they bought saw a 10% discount even before the developers poured the first concrete of brick-n-mortar construction commencement!!

    And if you recalls this – UOL/City Devt shares fell 15% overnight on Friday the moment PAPpy Wong’s ABSD measure took effect at the tick of mid-night clock the day before.

    @ Flickshit is definitely gullible naive to believe this that PAPpys looks after its tribal kind of buy-property-vote-PAPpy mindset when he said this

    Flickshit: If you want to be rich and famous. Join PAP and be a PAPPY puppy. You will become rich and famous in no time. Welcome to our PAPPY Dog Camp.

    The buy-property-vote-PAPpy Pavlov’s doggies all GOT SCREWED UP BIG TIME!

    UOL/City Devt are biggest developers in LEE-jiapore – THEY ARE ENGAGED IN PREDATORY PRICE CUTTING – SO ALL OTHER DEVELOPERS AND BUYERS OVER THE LAST 9 months GOT THOROUGHLY SCREWED UP AS I HAVE WARNED OF PROPERTY MARKET DOWNSIDE AFTER UOL/CITY DEVT SHARE PLUNGED 15% OVERNIGHT.

    From this point, I can see easily another 5% fall in property prices even without the rupture implosion of global trade war taking strangehold of global economy in hostage.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @ Oxygen
    Fully agree. Have no sympathy for those people who got in over their heads. We, as a nation, lost our way when we began to equate brains and accolade to whoever made the most money. It didn’t matter how they gathered this money, only that they possessed it. En bloc plans put on hold amid new curbs. On hold – Horizon Towers, Katong Plaza, Fortune Park, Teck Guan Ville and Waterloo Apartments. Dalvey Court condominium en-bloc plan, shelved. The result is a culture of exaggerated individualism, and a broad unhappiness. Any honest, broad look at Singapore society today would have to conclude that our culture is simply corrupt: morally, politically, economically. It doesn’t matter which facet you look into, you see the same thing – people deluded, deluding, willfully deceived and deceiving. We are in a morass, teetering on the brink of a financial and economic Black Hole.

    oxygen:

    The Tre Ver Condo to offer “significant 10 per cent discount” at Phase 1
    launch

    UOL/City Devt are biggest developers in LEE-jiapore – THEY ARE ENGAGED IN PREDATORY PRICE CUTTING – SO ALL OTHER DEVELOPERS AND BUYERS OVER THE LAST 9 months GOT THOROUGHLY SCREWED UP AS I HAVE WARNED OF PROPERTY MARKET DOWNSIDE AFTER UOL/CITY DEVT SHARE PLUNGED 15% OVERNIGHT.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen, Haigen-diaz:
    Churning of the S’pore property market is relatively easy to achieve. Use the clueless MSM to convey a message that the worst is over for the S’pore property market. Next, trigger a series of EnBloc transactions to parlay subsequent reentry of buyers into the property market. Hold a series of new launches, fill it with property speculators. You have a stampeding herd of clueless buyers clamouring to book units like some leaking sale.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    MATE, THANKS FOR that brilliant insightful economic history lecture!

    Haigen-diaz: @ Rabble-rouser
    Thanks for the lucid comments. We’re not talking just parasitic class. We’re talking about a depraved form of “humanity” that has the U.S. — and by extension, the world — in a death wish of greed…… The Glass–Steagall Act, or the Banking Act of 1933, separated commercial and investment banking. Under those regulations, the US prospered in the fifties and sixties, and the middle class flourished. Commercial banking was known for being prudent and conservative. With the repeal of two provisions of the Banking Act in 1999, “the great wall” between the two types of banking institutions crumbled, and it wasn’t long before we had what nearly became a global financial meltdown. Mortgage derivatives, something that never would have been allowed under Glass–Steagall, played a significant role in the crisis. The problem is the leveraged bubble and many banks were insolvent (with no FDIC……) In response, Glass-Steagall was passed, making leveraged bubbles impossible. But (as the financial industry saw it) it imposed a Glass ceiling on their profits, so that great economist Summers pontificated that banking no longer needed Glass-Steagall, and Clinton had no trouble pushing its repeal through a receptive Congress. After that repeal, banks started by loaning money on real estate (not stocks), since everyone ‘knew’ that real estate prices can’t crash. Then the new and greatly improved bubble burst in ’08, just as the old one did in ’29. The moneyed sicknesses go on. In much of the coverage of the disgusting manipulation passing as business as usual on Wall Street, what s*ake oil salesmen like Goldman Sachs have been foisting on the public are often referred to as products–financial products. The use of the word products suggests something useful, something imbued with constructive qualities. Nothing could be less accurate. Credit default swaps, derivatives, complicated trading machinations, are nothing but scams. There is no “product” nothing but an opportunity for scam artists to bilk hapless investors and run off with their money. These weasels don’ make anything, don’t contribute to the welfare of the country or improve the common good. The USA is already neck-deep in debt of $21 trillion (2Q2018), 99% of consumers are tapped out, US private debt is highest in the world.. so there’s no source of wealth left to steal except to start the global trade wars.

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  • oxygen:

    @Haigen Diaz, Rabble-rouser

    THAT MOB OF DUMBFARKED BUY-PROPERTY-VOTE-PAPpy absolutely deserves a SOLID HARD KICK in their a*ses. Their crazy minds think buy property get rich over-night rushing to beat PAPpy Wong’s deadline and all those insanity-driven craze of en bloc fantasy land dreaming in that 9 months prior.

    I AM COMPLETELY BEWILDERED BY THIS FANATIC NAIVETY – they seem to think money, fantastic amount of money that is, can be made SIMPLY OVERNIGHT by placing HUGE-LEVERAGED BETS when that is IMPOSSIBLE OF OUTCOME REALITY. People worked their a*ses and saves for decades or engaged for a long time in successful(a minority in reality) business to achieve the same outcome.

    THEIR ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE AND REALITY TOUCH IS UPSIDE DOWN.

    Now UOL discounted by 10% on Tre Ver Condo, who is selling at a bigger discount next to recently sold condos? Some will lose 15% to 20% in value – their invested equity and CPF – before they get their hands on the door key!!

    HOW TO FEEL SORRY FOR THEIR GREED-FED INSANITY AND STUPIDITY?

    Haigen-diaz: @ Oxygen
    Fully agree. Have no sympathy for those people who got in over their heads. We, as a nation, lost our way when we began to equate brains and accolade to whoever made the most money. It didn’t matter how they gathered this money, only that they possessed it.

    Rabble-rouser: @ oxygen, Haigen-diaz:
    Churning of the S’pore property market is relatively easy to achieve. Use the clueless MSM to convey a message that the worst is over for the S’pore property market. Next, trigger a series of EnBloc transactions to parlay subsequent reentry of buyers into the property market. Hold a series of new launches, fill it with property speculators. You have a stampeding herd of clueless buyers clamouring to book units like some leaking sale.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Flickshit:
    Your concept of wealth (re: being rich & famous) is all wrong. If fame was so great, why then do famous & rich personalities like Robin Williams, Anthony Bourdain & Kate Spade kill themselves? Why?
    The wealth that the PAP had bestowed upon themselves were artificial & unwarranted. It is a generous welfare payment which they have not rightly earned for themselves nor were proven in the marketplace. It is mandated through political authoritarian powers over a helpless electorate like extortion money.
    Like my mate oxygen says;
    1. They can’t even grow the business organically (see NOL, SPH, Hyflux) nor expand on a global scale.
    2. They don’t even know how to trade, invest, buy & sell businesses profitably.
    You see, wealth is all in your head. The ability to see right from wrong; sense danger before it hits you; anticipate potential opportunities before they emerged & most of all, be humble after taking profits.
    People who have real money don’t shout out that they are rich through their possession. Many are humble, low profile & low keyed people. They shun fame because it brings nothing except hangers-on & sycophants greedy for freebies or privileges. The PAP are infested with sycophants, cronies & brown-nosers – you’ll be better off spending your time elsewhere productively than serving the PAP & hoping to get rich. It doesn’t work that way.

    Flickshit:
    If you want to be rich and famous. Join PAP and be a PAPPY puppy. You will become rich and famous in no time. Welcome to our PAPPY Dog Camp.

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  • sginvestor:

    Oxygen!

    UOL bought land that is 37% cheaper than CEL’s Park Colonial (800 psf vs 1,100 psf), but they only offer a discount of 10%?

    They should be able to offer a much lower price!
    And Park Colonial is so much nearer than Tre Ver to the MRT

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  • oxygen:

    @ sginvestor

    THE LAND COSTS TO EACH DEVELOPER IS IRRELEVANT TO PRICE DISCOUNTING MARGIN. Why? Very simple! Why should UOL, a listed entity with public shareholders give away just one cent to buyers of its development project when that discounting (of whatever percentage) is detrimental to its shareholders’ interests? UOL is in the business of maximising its profit potential, not a charity taking risks and sacrifice profit potential to cheer up its grumpy customers?

    So the bottomline is that UOL is submitting to market pressure -as Jesline Goh, its senior general manager for asset management and marketing, confessed was due to changed economic landscape after the PAPpy Wong’s property cooling measure curbs.

    It is the forces of MARKET PRESSURES at work, not charity of profit minimization against the supplier of risks capital, its shareholders. And that is phase 1 OPENING VOLLEY OF ASKING PRICES. It sales can’t be seduced with this discounting to clear inventory fast, UOL, I am sure, will offer even more generous discounting margin to entice more buyers.

    Who knows, Phase 2 might be sweetened with 15% discount of stock clearance sales. Then Tre Ver Condo becomes the new benchmark and nearby condos like Park Colonials might see speculators offload at 10% to 15% discounting too – the price discounting, most likely, will cascade to similar suburban condos island-wide – if it is not already surprisingly so of contagion discounting desperation among developers.

    NO ONE IS IMMUNE TO MARKET DOWNWARD PRICING ADJUSTMENT – just like assets repricing in all asset classes when market finds new equilibrium.

    THOSE WHO GOT SUCKED IN over the last 9 months are fools – it is pure speculative bubbles since the secondary resale market for condos were as cold as a morgue. There is no snail mail in your letter boxes, haven’t you noticed this (according to my usual reliable informed sources)?

    sginvestor: Oxygen!

    UOL bought land that is 37% cheaper than CEL’s Park Colonial (800 psf vs 1,100 psf), but they only offer a discount of 10%?

    They should be able to offer a much lower price!
    And Park Colonial is so much nearer than Tre Ver to the MRT

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  • Anon:

    @oxygen:

    @ Anon
    THOSE WHO HAVE SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL MARKET EXPERIENCES BEFORE GOING INTO ACADEMIA live in an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT ORBIT from those with prestigious doctorate degrees from Ivy League universities with NO FINANCIAL MARKET EXPERIENCE.

    THIS IS REALITY – so you can’t fault Professor Balding for his lack of publications in 3-4* academic journals.

    The GFC COMPLETELY DISCREDITED THE ACADEMIC FINANCE TEACHING – particularly the cornerstone of high finance thought of EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS (CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL – CPM in short) Nobel-prize winning scholarly publications…’

    I am afrai, you misunderstand me. I am part of the academic system and I know how the game (yes it is a game) is played. I am merely saying that Within the academic system, if Balding were that well regarded, he would have been offered tenure AND this is usually based on whether he has published in so-called top journals. I have seen his list of publications and they are not. Whether papers published in top journals are actually practically useful is another matter; indeed they are often not because academics live in their own self-sealing world; I have actually heard some top academics in US business schools actually say that they do not care if their theories are usefully when confronted with the question. So, I am merely making an observation that the criteria adopted by universities for grantin* tenure is not whether their publications have practical value but whether it provokes academic reaction through measures like citation rates, impact factors etc. These have nothing to do with practical insights. If you think why and how this is possible, you are right to query. That is why sometimes theories and models can be very fundamentally flawed but nevertheless evoke the admiration of fellow academics. Robert Merton and Myron scholes pricing formulation inspired the founding of LTCM and its subsequent spectacular collapse is an example of what Hayek in his Nibel acceptance speech called The Pretense of Knowledge where he criticised his fellow economist for pretending that economics theories are like natural scientific theories. Robert Merton junior who won the Nobel prize for economics should have listened to his father a Robert Merton senior the sociologist abou the dangers of being overly confident in his models.

    As someone trained in Engineering and who has worked (slogged would be a better word) in shipbuilding, aviation and then manufacturing management for nearly twenty years before stumbling into academia, I can tell you that even the financial world is out of touch with real reality! Having spent a few years in wealth management hardly makes Someone an expert. Indeed true academics eschew the label of ‘experts’…..continued.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    One of the most important fact which was overlooked by wannabe investors in the property buying hubris is the level of foreign participation. IT’S ONLY 6% FOREIGN PARTICIPATION! And that is freakin’ low by standards for global cities. Which means that it is overwhelmingly a domestic buying frenzy & a burgeoning debt bubble process that’s building up for local indebted households. No wonder MND Minister Lawrence Wong took out the cane after 9 months of frenzied property buying. It’s not to protect the property buyers but to preserve the fragile banking system from the property lending systemic risk of an imploding property market.
    The PAP are the primary architects of this senseless property-centric investment binge (Asset Enhancement Scheme). Many people think they are safe because the PAP govt are underwriting their property buying risk (being 70%-80% land owner). But it’s not only that misconception but rather the debt default risk that is rapidly rising. And who are those hubris buyers? Methinks the buying lot are cronies, Superscale grade civil servants & GLC middle-managers, grassroots members, brown-nosers & sycophants who have great confidence in the PAP’s Economic Management & strong faith in the S’pore property market. Who else who have the job security & the pay levels that would allowed them to borrow from banks? The very people who strongly support the PAP. They are being lead like mice by the Pied Piper’s tune to the cliff.

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  • Anon:

    @oxygen….Continued;

    The real reason why financial models and indeed economic theories are so impoverished of practical value is because most academics in the field of economics today do not engage with a fundamental problem with their theories; the epistemological assumptions the6 make and most importantly the intractable problem of REPRESENTATION; how do you capture practical living reality unsing word, theories, models and indicators? Most of current economic theories are not practically useful, not because the6 are too theoretical, but because they are NOT THEORETICAL ENOUGH hence no5 practical; much theorising is HALF-BAKED!

    The point I am making is that academic rigour oftentimes is a mindless following of mehtodological procedures and protocols. There is little appreciation of what might b3 call ‘artistic rigor’ Rather than mindless scientific rigor.

    So, I do not disagree with you that most theories and especially financial models are abstracted from reality and pursuing and relying on them as if they reflected reality, is the cause of eventual collapse like LTCM AND like the global financial crisis of 2008. And there will be more because mos5 people still do not understand the epistemological GAP between REPRESENTATION and REALITY!

    In Singapore the so-called ‘scholars’ with their ‘book knowledge’ (produced by others who do not reveal their philosophical assumptions) will come to grief when it makes contact with lived reality; they mistake the map for the territory, eat the menu instead of the dish. That is how you lose touch, show your ignorance and ask for ‘Me Siam mai hum’. Eventually reality comes back and bites you in the form of unintended consequences.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Anon,

    YES MATE, I UNDERSTAND YOUR PREMISE – it is true that academic tenure is conditional on publishing in top journals in the respective fields. That is why it is sealed in its own bunker of irrelevance to practical applications. Occasionally, even data is fudged to get there….until caught and sin bin for academic fraud. Long retired, I worked with professionals in different fields – from securities dealers to fund managers to analysts, lawyers and hired external legal guns, to valuers to geologists (from exploration to mining to paper-trained geo with hardly any field experience), oil and gas exploration geologists, financial accountants, auditors to investigative accountants, economists etc. They are a fascinating lot, especially the older more experienced ones. I can never find anyone in the academic that can bring to the table of discussion insights which practical hands-on experience gives and the way they look at a problem/issues and the perspectives they considered of solutions. The publishing in the academic world – however prestigious it may be of say financial accounting or exploration geology as example – has nothing to match of mindset. Academic tends to veer of normative construct and worked their syntax to elaborate and “justify” their preferred perspective. Those with worldly practical bent does not speak like that – they are contextual of outlook and inviting of alternative construct of looking at specific issue/problem definition. Their mind thinks like water.

    That is why I think those highly academic of scholastic achievement are less likely to perform in the practical world. How many top academic make it very rich of financial success on their own? Remember the Gates, Jobs and Zuckerbergs are university drop-outs. As a mining equities investor – whenever I attend a AGM of shareholders, I get to speak to BOD at informal conversations in tea-break – the moment I speak to a geo-trained Board member and he/she speaks to me in normative language, my next probe must be how many years of practical field experience he/she has and where. If there is not much to show, I am incline to offload my holdings. Betting my risks luck with an academic geologist at Board level is a no no for me. And I look back the past, I see wonder achievement in some mining entities with geologists noted for renowned field experience of practical hand-on participation in actual big discoveries in unexplored geography. They “see” practical geology others don’t.

    That is why I suspect that those with deep experience entering the academia lives in a different orbit from those without. Universities are refugee camp of pure publishing academics.

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