Property Market Almost Dead, Why Prices Still Climbing?

Recently so many en-blocs, Singaporeans seem to be easily swayed that market is recovering. I did a number of investigation and found the market was not recovering, almost cold. Transactions and volumes are also low, even COE has dropped below $30000. The reason for the en-blocs is all game plan by you know who, the banks lowered interested allowing developers to come into market to uplift, creating a fake buoyant recovering market to bluff investors to invest.

The cooling measure is pretty much bs, it is to make more money in a very quiet market. That is why prices of almost anything is going up, probably massive losses at our sovereign funds. To recover the losses, easy way out is to swallow or restrict your CPF with every changing rules and policies and raise prices of everything to ensure you pay more and more.

Those less than 10 year old 4 room HDBs at Airport Road was at one time selling $600,000++ and now they are asking for $700,000++. It was just 12 months, price went up $100,000++. Looking at the volume, it was really miserable. So did you study economics? Weak demand, prices still going up? Against all odds, damn unique in Singapore. I checked other areas, looks like less people are selling now as compared to last year but those selling are raising prices from $50,000 t0 $100,000++. In a weak market, sellers are doing the opposite?! Instead of lowering prices to sell, they actually raise prices?!!! Very unique situation in Singapore, it does not follow the law of newton!

Basically, the govt art of manipulation through the use of evaluation has managed to sustain or to raise the prices of property even in a very weak market. Fewer and fewer buyers, prices actually climb, strange phenomenon. But when I look at new BTO prices, they are
creeping up with every launch, with St Michael’s 5 room asking $800,000++. Now you get the picture? By pegging new BTO to resale prices, prices keep escalating. Whose’s benefits? LOL Do I need to tell you?

SERS, VERS an HIP; any use? Honestly no, only stupid people don’t understand the marketing gimmicks by PAP. After 70 years of lease, HDB is going to ask you to top up 70 years of lease at market rate; question is “Do you have the CPF or CASH?”. CPF has been swallowed by many policies and at certain age, you can’t even withdraw to pay for HDB anymore. Top up 70 years of lease or 60 years of lease; any difference? The thing here is HDB is no longer affordable; VERS and SERS would not help if you don’t have fat wallet!!!

They are very cunning, all sort of gimmicks to bluff naive dumb sinkies. They said stupidity has no cure, if you keep believing their
bs, you are digging your own grave anyway.

 

Kenneth Sim

 

 

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60 Responses to “Property Market Almost Dead, Why Prices Still Climbing?”

  • PC Ong:

    This article have many unjustified innuendo. Price increase simply because demand remains strong. The global economy has been solid and we are seeing strong wage growth. Singaporeans typically don’t overspend, so they have huge savings. And most Singaporeans feel property is still the best investment available. All these explain the continued demand and price increase for property

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  • gic temasick shouldn't be pap:

    … massive losses at our sovereign funds.

    1st, Singapore belongs to Singaporeans, not to pap. pap is a political party, like any other political parties, that happen to form government at the moment.

    2nd, it is very wrong for pap to abuse power in making national assets such as gic temasick as pap plaything. to reward pap clan members with S$m non accountable monies for being loyal to pap.

    after all, gic temasick belong to Singaporeans. so the holder of the 2nd key must step in and clean up the current legalized nepotism cronyism corruption in gic temasick.

    the current rot in gic temasick is very deep. when market is good, and everyone makes money, pap says it is due to pap talent and pay each other 20 months bonus. BUT, when market is bad, pap says it is due to market and continues to pay each other handsomely.

    so much so the current rot ensures 70% sheep continues to pay for their voting error. because when market is bad, and pap continues to pay each other handsomely in gic temasick, the only way for pap to top up emptying coffers is to raise taxes raise water raise electricity raise gas raise carpark and raise anything that can be raised.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    The concept of property holdings in S’pore hinges on the store of wealth mentality of Asians. They truly believe that property “asset” can hold a store of value much better than any other investments. But how do you explain the huge amounts of debt incurred to procure property?
    Indeed, the capital investment factor for acquiring S’pore property have far exceeded most individuals’ means to acquire property using accumulated savings (+ CPF) or using inherited equity/wealth. They need to borrow huge amounts; to pay off their mortgage debt using their future income streams. I dare say that near 100% of S’pore property buyers need substantial bank financing to acquire a property “asset” & decades to pay off this huge debt over time. Yet in today’s tumultuous times where job insecurities are a given & business disruptions were rampant, is this a good move to make?
    So this game of property investing were only possible if the banks & financial institutions were willing to fund those brave souls willing to put themselves under such indebtedness. The recent cooling measures have exactly done that – reduce the possibility of gung-ho investors borrowing from banks & putting their names on the dotted line for that new property to near zero. Without ‘real’ market liquidity, the high asking prices are just an illusion & a mirage number. No buying will get done at those prices – it’s the real estate agent’s dream to get those sellers listing through aspirational pricing but it’s frankly a waste of time (months, if not years of no buying interest nor viewings despite advertisement).
    Frankly, the real estate industry is the most unproductive industry in S’pore & was built on silly ‘dreams’ re: unsustainable! Indeed, S’pore & the PAP were ‘investing’ huge amounts of capital (& assuming humongous debt) chasing after a dream eg, GDP growth using enormous inputs factors but with NO RESULTS. This constant ‘chase’ has got very limited or in fact, no output growth factors ie. where true wealth gained from emerging & growth industries (from breaking technology, sciences & medical breakthroughs, etc) or from intellectual capital (arts, literature (“Crazy Rich Asians”), movie making, etc).
    The question that begs – how is S’pore property a good store of wealth “an asset” when the PAP doesn’t really ‘create’ wealth in the first place? What I see were rampant overspending & ridiculous values caused by a debt bubble.

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  • oxygen:

    EN BLOC IS LED BY HOT DIRTY CHINESE MONEY – fleeing China the legit way of taking out money. So the higher the bidding game, the better because in 2017, the Chinese govt banned outflow of investment in “sin” related sector of gambling, hotel and even speculative unproductive investment in property.

    Read this link.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/why-china-is-cracking-down-on-overseas-investment-commentary.html

    PRCs nationals too is fearful of the Yuan devaluation.

    https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/chinas-economy-could-grow-65-in-2017-devaluation-could-stabilise-yuan-think-

    and the Chinese stock market stumbled badly in February 2018.

    https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/916586/stock-market-crash-china-USA-wall-street-news-latest-worst-day-liquidity

    SO CHINESE DEVELOPERS BID AGGRESSIVELY IN LEE-jiapore and Hong Kong expecting that in any event, PRC nationals will buy up their projects when developed. For the Chinese, it is not a money making proposition but a decision to MINIMIZE LOSSES if China did a massive devaluation of its Yuan or Chinese stock market crash, collapsing their economy which is fast slowing amidst Trump’s rhetoric of trade wars.

    PRCs want their money OUT and to circumvent Chinese government restriction on overseas investment since August 2017, the legit “business” investment is through Ah Tiong developing housing projects overseas and silently providing a legit conduit for rich PRC to get their money out too.

    Local property developers watch in disbelief how aggressive Ah Tiong developers bid for en bloc land, and some cleverly REFUSED TO BE BAITED OF THIS TRAP. Chinese developers have got captive buyers of rich Ah Tiongs. Local developers have to find them. Also Chinese developers bulk buy their raw materials of steel, cement, and cheaper Chinese construction labor. Local developers have not – unless they partner Chinese developers.

    BUT THESE HOT MONEY INFLOW DO A LOT OF DAMAGE TO INFLATIONARY SPIRAL TO OUTSIDE ECONOMIES LIKE LEE-jiapore and Hong Kong.

    So not surprisingly PAPpy Wong slammed the brake in July 2018. And goondus who joined the Chinese hot money betting big ALL CAUGHT PANTS DOWN in the aftermath.

    Starhub retrenched 300 in one sweep. Me expect a lot of retrenchment to come as global economy peak of Trumponomic insanity of tax cut, record budget deficits and trade war eruption disrupting supply chain and global economic functioning.

    The low transaction in secondary market is because the lack of buyers. Trover in Pasir Ris sold less than 10% of the project on launch. New development sells better those cheaper priced units below $1.5m, mainly upgraders. How to sell their HDB now?

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  • Malaysia boleh Singapore bodoh:

    Why prices still climbing? It is a marketing trick. Everybody NOW knows that HDB flats are basically DEPRECIATING assets and it FAIR MARKET VALUE is the length of the REMAINING lease. (Therefore, at the end of the 99-year lease the property is worth ZERO as stated by Lawrence Wong). Desperate sellers are increasing their asking price because they know they buyers will bargain for a much lower price.

    It is easy to determine the REAL value of a RESALE flat. Use as a REFERENCE price the price of a NEW HDB flat (same size and in the same estate) bought directly from HDB EXCLUDING grants. The FAIR MARKET VALUE of a resale flat CANNOT BE MORE THAN the price of the NEW flat x (remaining lease in years x 99). This is comparing the old and new flat with the same remaining lease. Since the resale flat is actually older it should be less than this price.

    Resale transaction before August this year is not a good guide because there was a PROPERTY BUBBLE. Everything changed when PM confirmed during his National Day Rally Speech that there will be no lease extension and no conversion to freehold. HDB flats have to be returned to HDB at the end of the 99-year lease with no compensation.

    Upgrading like HIP1 and HIP2 will only SLIGHTLY increase the value of an old flat (by the cost of upgrading) but at the end of the 99-year lease, the flat will still be worth ZERO. VERS does not increase the value of the old flat because the amount the owner received when it returns the flat to HDB is based on the remaining lease – same as Leave Buyback Scheme(LBS) – and the seller will still have to buy a new flat from HDB at the usual high price. VERS is really the same scheme as Lease Buyback Scheme.

    To get a good indication of the FAIR MARKET VALUE of their old flat, owners should use the LBS. Offer to return HALF of the remaining lease on their flat to HDB under the Scheme. DOUBLE the price offered by HDB for the lease to be returned to get the REAL value of their old flat. It is that simple.

    HDB flat owners should stop dreaming. There is no more “free and easy money” to be made on their flat. Face reality. Get as much as money out of your depreciating HDB flat and put it back into your CPF where it can at least earn 2.5% per annum. Waiting is not an option because your flat depreciates DAILY.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Kenneth Sim,

    WONDER ALOUD TO MYSELF THIS – who is paying $800K for HDB 5-rm BTOs paying for land but no title when one could pay $1.1m for a private condo with same lease but it comes with leasehold land with en bloc optionality in the future?

    That said, there could be suckers around – thinking that their HDB BTOs could rise to $1.6m in 6 months time!! HILARIOUS.

    The THINLY-TRADED transaction volume & the fat spread between asking price of seller and buyer’s expectation is indicative of a frothy property market prevailing that this is a REAL BUBBLE between artificial valuation of false expectation and its variance from market affordability reality.

    In the finality, one side has to blink to close a transaction. Desperation loses in that calm before the storm. Rising interest rate, retrenchments and who dares sell to save his anus wins – if I am a betting man – I say the patient buyers lose less because IMF, top billionaire investors like Stan Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio, and investment bankers like Morgan Stanley are bearish. Property prices in Sydney, HK, Vancouver, Toronto, London, Munich, Dublin are falling dominoes – THE ENTIRE WORLD CAN’T BE WRONG and dumb Sinkie speculator the only one right. Of that, I am confident.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    - Cont’d -
    The greatest fallacy of people’s thinking is LINEAR THINKING ie. thinking that the past is conjoined with the present & will continue well into the future. But in reality, the world is disjointed, non-discrete & full of discontinuities. Property investing is a 30 year holding period where all things must hold constant for it to come true at last. But can it?
    A lot of buyers of S’pore properties (funded by huge mortgages) were banking on a perpetual low interest rate environment thus making their buying decision in the first place. This is an example of linear thinking.
    The concept of property asset as a good store of value eg. wealth had been historically embedded in Asian thinking. They believed that property will continue to grow exponentially in value over time. The Japanese had this sort of thinking during the early 1980s when the Japanese Economy was growing by leaps & bounds. But by the time the 1990s rolled by, the rising property mentality was gone forever. In over 3 decades, Japan property prices declined tremendously & then flat-lined from there on. The present day constraints are an ageing demographics & a tired economy where the economic participants aren’t able to work as hard as they used to nor consume due to a repressed wage eco-system. In Japan, there was a phenomena of deflation in the economy where people withheld spending & consumption in the hopes of future lower prices. Japan went from a very high cost of living environment morphing into a very price competitive market place because people became extremely thrifty & counted their pennies. The rise of the ¥100 shops in Japan was a sign while domestic Japanese manufacturers & service providers had to innovate & become price competitive in order to survive.
    PAP’s relentless drive to create high inflation will result in a broken down economy. The inclination to build ‘White Elephants’ & a Brick ‘N Mortar economy created a high cost structure eco-system because the high capitalisation cost of asset building (& asset enhancement programs re: HIP, HIP2) permeates upwards resulting in S’pore being the most expensive global city 5 consecutive year running.
    Yet the paradox of having a 1st world economy yet running on 3rd world wages can’t be reconciled. PAP’s ‘Who doesn’t want to collect more money?’ will run into a brick wall! Already the signs are there for those perceptive enough to see – capital & savings are exhausted, debts rising, CPF are trapped & the economic participants are tired, sick & penniless. The infusion of foreigners were not a panacea because they were just mercenaries.

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  • Thinkforothers:

    You really “NAIL IT” right to the point…I love it really!!!

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  • Meritocratic bluff:

    the prices are climbing because the owners donot want to let go of them in rock bottom prices…

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  • LIONS:

    Strange,govt controls PRIVATE HOUSING MARKET BUT ALLOWS prices of HDB flats to rise from $600k to $700k in secondary market for 4-room?

    Is the govt MEDDLING in the wrong sector.
    Is our govt public sector or private?

    Never mind our main role,we just simply wanna collect more money no matter how,no matter what.

    Dont like it still must take it.
    Who voted for us?

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  • We not suipid:

    Yes! the market is artificially given steroids. the property market is in a huge bubble worse than ever before. Stock Market is down, COE is down, retrenchment is up, employment is down but prices are increasing not just properties but almost all consumables.

    what does it tell you? Either Singapore is rewriting new economic theories or we are in a huge economic mess. What do you think?

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  • Python 5:

    Those less than 10 year old 4 room HDBs at Airport Road ….

    the lifts there….black buttons. the door slam close with a loud bang. wait about 3-4secs, then it start to move.

    asking price 600-700K?? antique lifts from 1958??
    any smart ass go take on a bank loan of 700k for 30yrs and buy??

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  • opposition dude:

    “if you keep believing their bs, you are digging your own grave anyway.”

    Tell that to the 70% and see what kind of reaction you get. Should be the usual shrug shoulders and bo bian comment.

    Is there enough anger on the ground for next year to make PAP lose more than a few GRCs? I don’t know myself what with all these kiasees around. There are already 5.64 million on the island and I haven’t heard much about it being overcrowded for a while now.

    Have we become used to paying 30% more for water with a still weak economy? Not to mention a 9% GST after the next election?

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  • Nice Try:

    This guy must be selling his HDB flats hoping the fake news here will earn him 800K.

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  • oxygen:

    @ PC Ong

    FIRST TO THE POST, all rubbish. It reveals that you must be a property maniac fanatic.

    PAPpy Wong who pressed down the brake in July must be laughing at your IDIOTIC ECONOMICS of hallucination fantasy. He comes from strong economics background.

    PC Ong: This article have many unjustified innuendo. Price increase simply because demand remains strong. The global economy has been solid and we are seeing strong wage growth. Singaporeans typically don’t overspend, so they have huge savings. And most Singaporeans feel property is still the best investment available. All these explain the continued demand and price increase for property

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Malaysia boleh Singapore bodoh:
    No rocket science to decifer! It’s the EnBloc beneficiaries who were cash-rich after receiving the bulk of their windfall either 6 months after the tender closed (if 100% consent) or after the STB ruling in their favour. Many despite getting million over in cash may need to settle outstanding mortgages or other debts, just leaving them enough to buy a HDB flat of reasonable age but not private property. Fact is that despite getting a million over in price for EnBloc units, the EnBloc sellers were trading down because the new launch price per sq.ft. for condos far exceed their EnBloc price psf received. So no choice but to trade downwards into the lease decaying HDB flats. Except that they have the monies to outbid others in getting a <10 year old HDB flat. Multiply this over many EnBloc beneficiaries – the relatively new HDB resale flat has no way to go but up. But this HDB Resale market for <10 year old HDB flat is unsustainable. By 2019, both the liquidity & demand will scaled down dramatically as the EnBloc market had shut down in 2nd half of 2018. Give a 6 to 9 month lag, the fact hits home by 2019. Comprende?

    Malaysia boleh Singapore bodoh:: Why prices still climbing?

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  • oxygen:

    @ We are not suipid

    EXACTLY RIGHT, MATE, only fools delude themselves of reality.

    We not suipid: Yes! the market is artificially given steroids. the property market is in a huge bubble worse than ever before. Stock Market is down, COE is down, retrenchment is up, employment is down but prices are increasing not just properties but almost all consumables.

    what does it tell you? Either Singapore is rewriting new economic theories or we are in a huge economic mess. What do you think?

    Reality is here.

    oxygen: IMF, top billionaire investors like Stan Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio, and investment bankers like Morgan Stanley are bearish. Property prices in Sydney, HK, Vancouver, Toronto, London, Munich, Dublin are falling dominoes – THE ENTIRE WORLD CAN’T BE WRONG and dumb Sinkie speculator the only one right. Of that, I am confident.

    And here is my proof for that-dancing-in-the-wind fiction economics from @ PC Ong.

    Are Global Property Bubbles Starting To Burst? GoldCore Video

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1538654400.php

    We saw a bond market rout and the velocity climb of yields shaking financial markets including the trend-fighting US market. China and Hong Kong is bruising for the last 2 months at least.

    and this

    Poland and Australia Buys Gold As Global Property Bubble Bursts – This Week’s Golden Nuggets

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1538745571.php

    Sovereign governments are buying gold.

    PROPERTY MANIACS ARE ALL STUCK WITH AN URN ON THEIR HANDS, THINKING THEY GOT THE EXPENSIVE TROPHY.

    Their economic perspective is NWOD EDISPU of reality and the entire world is wrong. Ha Ha Ha.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    Just reported today, as the stock markets are whipsawed by Trump’s trade tirades and tariffs, actual or threatened, no doubt some people are making tons of money buying on the dips and selling on the recoveries. The one clear trend is that volatility is back and that includes housing assets. There are lots of potential reasons for this. While the stock market gets its haircut the rest are getting scalped by unscrupulous corporate, banking, real estate and utility monopolies. The focus should be on people who can’t make their mortgage payments and trying to get rid of their houses. If a home seller who suffered foreclosure because the bank refused to negotiate a refinancing of the debt which would have allowed a continuation to pay and keep the home, owner would be forced to recoup losses (loan interests plus market depreciation) by asking for higher prices which is nothing new here. A last ditch @tikam. This is a very nice discussion of the market overreacting. But as a finance question, there is another consideration. Simply put, the market hyper-overreaction suggests that the markets are way overvalued and because of this they are essentially shaky. The above analysis suggests that the negative human impact is a lot more significant that the macroeconomic ones.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Meritocratic bluff

    PLEASE EDUCATE THE PEASANTS of your UNITARY DERIVATION of what is “rock bottom prices” of any property.

    I don’t think they teach that economic principle, methodology and its derivation in the Ivy League meritocratic universities like Harvard, Wharton, Chicago, Stanford, Cambridge or London School of Economics.

    Meritocratic bluff: the prices are climbing because the owners donot want to let go of them in rock bottom prices…

    Your expertise should be earth-shaking and definitely a Nobel Prize winning economic invention. When will it be likely you be nominated for this prized achievement?

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  • oxygen:

    @ Meritocratic bluff

    MATE, I ACTUALLY THINK THE EARTH-SHAKING TREMOR to hit the Sinkieland property market is just about to begin. Sorry to contradict your unwavering optimism.

    But here is some headline news from Marketwatch.com.

    China stocks return from holiday, tumble 3% as PBOC eases reserve requirements

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-lag-as-chinese-stocks-fall-after-weeklong-layoff-2018-10-07

    Chinese Govt is desperately trying to keep its economy from sinking in the face of looming trade war.

    Marketwatch.com : “This monetary policy tweak is the fourth in 2018 and despite the weakening Yuan and the Feds embarking on a more aggressive rate increase tangent than expected, suggests the PBOC are putting their greatest energies behind stimulating the flagging economy as opposed to the U.S.-China trade wars or Fed policy for that matter,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading APAC, at OANDA.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Property Index has fallen by more than 26% since January. That fortress has buckled in recent weeks as buyers fled, giving away their deposits instead of exercising their buy option. That tells me the price discovery to imagine future bottom has only just began – in the world’s most expensive realty market. China-US trade tension and rising US interest rate are creating tremors among buyers AND THE VELOCITY OF RISE IN BOND (read interest rate) yield accelerated in the last few days.

    I am confident that there will be blood on the street or in the water of floating corpses before you can discover its nearness to the hoped for bottom.

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  • oxygen:

    THIS IS HAPPENING IN CHINA NOW, it is gonna a repeat show in LEE-jiapore soon.

    Read this weblink from Bloomberg’s breaking news

    Angry Mobs Show All’s Not Well in China’s Toppy Property Market

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/angry-mobs-show-all-s-not-well-in-china-s-toppy-property-sector?srnd=premium-asia

    Why?

    Bloomberg : Home buyers angry that apartments are being sold for much less than they paid swamped property developers’ marketing offices across China over the Golden Week holiday, demanding their money back.

    Hong Kong property market cracked, China property market sold under the buyers’ feet.

    Leejiapore immune from market realities?

    Me thinks this will happen to us too….SOON!!

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  • Python 5:

    rabble rouser and oxygen….damn it. very chim. I need to copy out your posts into MS word and read it word by word.

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  • oxygen:

    ANOTHER HOUSING MARKET CRUSHED – here is CNBC LATEST news just out.

    Housing stocks just posted their longest losing streak ever.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/08/housing-stocks-just-posted-their-longest-losing-streak-ever-.html

    Here is the reason

    CNBC: Homebuilder stocks just got crushed, and some market watchers say there’s far more pain to come.

    The XHB, the popular homebuilders-tracking ETF, just posted its longest losing streak ever, falling for 13 consecutive sessions amid a breakout in U.S. Treasury yields that injected new risk into the rate-sensitive group. The XHB has tumbled 9 percent in just one month, entering into a bear market.

    Interest rates and mortgage rates are keeping potential buyers on the side, said Erin Gibbs, portfolio manager at S&P Investment Advisory Services. Those elements, along with other fundamental drivers, give her reason to believe investors should stay away.

    “On the other side, homebuilders are facing massive increases in cost, they’re really having problems with finding skilled construction workers; they’re also having higher material costs as commodity prices go up. So you’ve got higher costs in building, higher prices from a consumer perspective, and that’s just really making the earnings growth tank,” Gibbs said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

    Another sign that consumer spending in US hit the wall. Consumption accounts for 65% – 70% of the US economic base.

    IS THE RECESSION ON THE CARD??

    Remember these facts – the last GFC starts in the BUBBLE real estate sector in EU/US imploded, infected the financial markets which toppled the global economy.

    This time in an environment that is even far more leveraged of debt borrowing, even a relatively small rise (compared to 2009 much higher interest rate then) in bond yields is wreaking havoc in global real estate sector.

    The signs are OMINOUS of dark clouds ahead and real risks of another real estate bursting catastrophe awaiting.

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  • Jman:

    Before we jump to conclusions, we have to remember that the property market cycles take some time to play out. This is on thin volumes, so it isn’t likely to be sustainable.

    The property market is not like the temperaments of millennials. The property market isn’t going to respond immediately and fully straight after a Government announcement or policy change.

    Be realistic.

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  • rukidding:

    Sorry to say,…but it seems only PC Ong and Cynical are the two “fools” here.

    PAP “old tricks” are all “exposed”.

    I think PAP “days are already numbered”.

    It only remains to be seen,…how many and at what super speed rate had this Gov’t “exactly” done to “accept” New sillyzeans to help “drown off” impending opposition vote bank ??.

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  • TUCK WAN:

    This time round investors will be jumping from 10th floor. Not 2nd or 3rd
    Floor. Slim chance of surviving!!!
    Good Luck. Best Wishes.

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  • oxygen:

    TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN HONG KONG NOW – barely two weeks after the first sign of cracks there,

    “With few takers on the property market, jittery individual owners cut prices by up to HK$800,000″

    https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2167354/few-takers-property-market-jittery-individual-owners-cut-prices-hk800000

    SCMP:A 375 sq ft unit at Amoy Garden, in Kowloon Bay changed hands for HK$6 million against its asking price of HK$6.8 million, Midland Realty said on Sunday.

    “The owner reduced the price four times, dropping it by HK$800,000 before finding a buyer,” said Ricky Wong, senior sales manger at Midland Realty’s Kowloon Bay branch.

    THE VELOCITY OF PRICE FALL AND THE SPEED OF TURNAROUND IN MARKET SENTIMENTS MUST HAVE CAUGHT EVERY PROPERTY CONNOISSEURS BY TOTAL SURPRISE.

    This is typical of asset bubble burst in every financial market – no time and no opportunity for escape exit in the carnage & incineration of inflated valuation.

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  • oxygen:

    IN JUST ONE TRANSACTION ABOVE to find a buyer, the seller cut price by 13%. It is now benchmark of over-valuation. The next desperate seller cut price by another 10%, the total decline will be 23% – anyone who bought higher that is entombed of no escape and next the recovery cycle when it comes will take a decade or more to recover.

    Property speculation is plain gambling – how can valuation rise without productive input to add value other than a highly-leveraged bet on who-dare-die if they don’t win mindset.

    For a small apart of mere 375 sq ft unit in Amoy Garden, the $800K price cut is around 13% pain of loss for the seller.

    MASSIVE LOSS – the desperate seller must be fleeing for his dear life.

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  • HarderTruths:

    Property market is rigged. It has always been rigged. It dos not protect $G locals and is open to all – comers.

    Saying HDB is for $G is bullshit – the prices are set to market. Condos are too far beyond the reach of local $G.

    Yet they keep voting the despots into power. Strange indeed.

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  • nihon:

    the old airport hdb is likely to be a buyer who is NOT motivated to sell and just giving false signals.

    if resale price of 2nd hand hdb collapsed, then bto prices will also come down.

    and the white scums will have much less land revenues.

    smells like kelong – artificially pumoping up valuation just to suck in more cpf monies.

    it will be politically difficult if the white scums do not pump up hdb prices. their lie that hdb is an appreciating asset is now exposed. there are many disillusioned hdb lessees with about 60 – 70 years on their lease and are finding it v difficult to sell their flats.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @oxygen
    China’s real estate market, unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending, and the debt of many local governments is likely unsustainable. China’s off balance sheet “shadow banking” loans are estimated to be $10 trillion. These loans made outside of any regulatory oversight at high interest rates are a default disaster just waiting to happen.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-07/a-guide-to-china-s-10-trillion-shadow-banking-maze-quicktake

    Additionally, capital efficiency in China is very poor. State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are subsidized, and thus shielded from market forces that would ensure efficiency through the marketplace. Other businesses are majority owned by the government, and are not managed to be successful without government support. As for the mismatch between consumption and investment, the imbalance would continue until redistribution of income and resources is taken up as the immediate priority of economic development drive. Mere export oriented economic growth seems unlikely to be sustainable for long. Unfortunately, China’s coming implosion will be felt around the world, as markets are interconnected. China is deeply embedded in the world’s supply chain. They may only be relatively the size of Japan in some measures, but instability in China will have an out-sized effect on the world’s economy! Thus much of the reported GDP is really worthless (like Singapore’s). Getting those with surplus capital adequate investment opportunities is also a critical problem which the Chinese government has not yet adequately addressed.China’s economy is nearing the size of that of the US. But because it has been growing 3-4 times as fast its contribution to global growth is much greater than the domestic share. So a recession there would make for a huge change in global growth. A lot of that would fall on emerging markets, which have been heavily dependent on China for their incomes. Now emerging market GDP’s aren’t huge, but unlike China, they are integrated into the financial system and hence could be the trigger for the global crisis you fear.

    oxygen:
    THIS IS HAPPENING IN CHINA NOW, it is gonna a repeat show in LEE-jiapore soon.
    Hong Kong property market cracked, China property market sold under the buyers’ feet.
    Leejiapore immune from market realities?

    Me thinks this will happen to us too….SOON!!

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  • Python 5:

    oxygen, very simple conclusion. PC ong is a property agent.
    I know when i see one!!!

    oxygen:
    @ PC Ong

    FIRST TO THE POST, all rubbish. It reveals that you must be a property maniac fanatic.

    PC Ong: This article have many unjustified innuendo. Price increase simply because demand remains strong. The global economy has been solid and we are seeing strong wage growth. Singaporeans typically don’t overspend, so they have huge savings. And most Singaporeans feel property is still the best investment available. All these explain the continued demand and price increase for property

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  • oxygen:

    @ rukidding

    PAPpys VOTE BANK HAS ALL TURNED DEADLY TOXIC – they walked into PAPpys tall castle of fiction with their eyes opened mistaken that the white monkeys are angelic miracle of heaven on earth embracing them in this LEE-jiapore utopia. They thought that opposition dissenting thoughts are all ungrateful lost causes – the stupid discards of embittered failed souls thrown on the economic rubbish heaps – ALL NOT CREDIBLE OF THEIR SOCIAL MEDIA derision of their PAPpy angels.

    Well, they got it ALL WRONG – what they don’t know about PAPpys true color native born knows came back to haunt their own stupidity of ignorance. THE JOHNNY-CAME-LATELY FOREIGNERS came in just-in-time to rescue PAPpys from the electoral disaster, right on cue to clean the dishes AFTER THE PAPpys banquet is over.

    Very few Q up for BTOs, under pressure of renting costs going down the drain, MOST BOUGHT INTO THE RESALE MARKET in a hurry – they paid through their a*ses for flats at inflated land prices (for which like locals got no title to the land) – and found themselves TRAPPED with FAKE INVESTMENT of fast depreciating values with leases of 65 years remaining and PROBABLY UNSALEABLE SOON when their lease is < 60 years soon. Once trapped/displaced by new younger and cheaper FTs, they got NO ESCAPE ROUTE.

    IN OTHER WORDS, THEY SUPPLIED THE FODDER OF PAPpy electoral cannon in 2011/2015 – used/soon to be dumped – not realizing that PAPpy POPULATION RECYCLING ECONOMICS must fail and they too are recycled out like natives. The natives bought their DUD HDBs much lower, long before the foreigners stepped on this shore of FAKE ECONOMY filled with artificial beauties mostly worthless in this digital age.

    FTs thought they are smart but discovered too late THEY ARE THE STUPID ONES USED AS CANNON FODDER. Now they want to sell out to return home, no locals is buying their DUD HDB back from them.

    AND PAPpys DISCOVERED TOO LATE THAT THEIR VOTE BANK HAS TURNED TOXIC – FT sillyzeans are an angry lot, desperate and will sink them in the next GE.

    Haven't you noticed this yet? Not one of the 4Gs fart a word of wisdom on the HDB ownership/lease/tenancy scam. They know it is poison potato, speak up and you own the poison of no solution available.

    rukidding: Sorry to say,…but it seems only PC Ong and Cynical are the two “fools” here.

    PAP “old tricks” are all “exposed”.

    I think PAP “days are already numbered”.

    It only remains to be seen,…how many and at what super speed rate had this Gov’t “exactly” done to “accept” New sillyzeans to help “drown off” impending opposition vote bank ??.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Property Investing in Asia isn’t land investments per se. S’pore [>80% of land holdings], HK, China et al don’t convey permanent (freehold or in perpetuity) land title holding within their property acquisitions to buyers of the Brick ‘N Mortar structures. The freehold component or land title is ultimately kept either with the developer or with the govt [For S'pore, the SLA]. What is being traded (among property buyers) is the temporal 99-year or less leasehold component which is subjected to lease decay over time. That alone should have been a warning sign that their Brick ‘N Mortar structures would logically depreciate in line with the lease decay. But the pressures of housing demand (due to population numbers), high inflationary eco-system & loads of liquidity churning through the economy – all serve to boost asset values over time which is contradictory to the common wisdom.
    In truth, (leasehold) property is a greater fool game or rather, a Musical Chair game where you wouldn’t want to miss out on getting a chair (property) when the music stops.
    This current property “GOLD RUSH” is more a function of massive liquidity (QEs) & easy money schemes (Banks/Financial Institutions throwing caution to the winds).
    The two headwinds that will derail this phenomenal rise of property are (1) higher cost of funds/reassessment of lending risk = higher interest rate future; (2) economy collapse (trade wars & US$ reverse flow effect on indebted economies a-la 1998 AFC). Bear in mind, most Asian economies are configured to open trade & for GDP growth metrics;
    * Merchantilist economic model (to capture foreign currency reserves & accumulate capital for further reinvestment over (withholding) consumption);
    * Export-oriented policies, ultimately dependent on inward foreign investment or capital flows to work;
    * using prodigious amounts of economic inputs to ‘create’ economic growth due to State-influence (ultimately misallocation of capital, surplus & DEBT)
    Looking at this tells you that it is unsustainable. Any reversal would wreck havoc on economies built on sand (Export-oriented economies, trade dependent, continual reinvestment, suppressed consumption) & not stone (Strong Middle-class, stable job eco-system & fair wages based on strong consumption & not Investment, strong small businesses & trade

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  • What sort of life is this?:

    The property sector is a gambling casino.
    The few big boys with “doubtful” funds and whipped up sentiment driven strategies and other vague plots are anybody’s guess. These few affects the many.
    It has been going on over here and in waves in places with similar likeminded people.
    People who “enjoy” gambling and gets a kick out of it and gets their exciting adrenaline rush.
    Highly regarded people of standing indulge in it but lacking finesse in character and wholesomeness, obviously.
    Isn’t this a sickness or disease that very few acknowledge?
    Who is treating or handling this sickness or disease seriously?
    Wealth creation of this nature through speculative calculation and gambling chance produces people of “poor and inferior” quality. You are poor and inferior if your life revolves around such wealth creation activities only.
    What is the point of holding many properties and millions in the banks and all the material stuff and comforts when your spirit is dead.
    Do you educate and train and moralize your children to aim high to become property speculators and tycoons and making money this way.
    Compare that to a hardworking person who earns his living by the sweat of his brow and who lives a simple life raising his family, more involved with moral values and goodness and living a fulfilling life with less. He just wants a decent affordable roof over his head and to be left to continue focus on other more important things in life as a responsible human being.
    Who is seriously monitoring this phenomenon and development, and taking helpful corrective measures to safeguard the many?

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  • oxygen:

    @ rukidding

    Adding on to above, IN TERMS OF SURVIVAL SKILLS, me thinks the FTs are mostly dumb – instead of adapting and discovering the pit-holes in a foreign (LEE-jiapore) land, they worship the metaphorical PAPpygods of father son and holy ghost fiction – they should have cultivated a healthy dissenting contrarian viewpoint. Why is PAPpys so fearful of assembly, freedom of expression even in HLP and now even in the social media chatter of peasantry? Old Chinese wisdom has it that no honourable men or women is afraid of his/her bent shadows. If the world is one wisdom and one virtue incontrovertible, it must be of superior being even exceeding DIVINE and DIVINE CAN’T EVEN TELL ME IF GOD IS MALE OR FEMALE. The reality and mirage don’t add up – in a sea of artificial beauties and utopia, there is SO MUCH ANGRY NATIVE DISSENT AND THAT IS MATCHED EXACTLY IN EXCESS of oppression. There is no engagement in this internet age. Instead there is starkly fearful of shrinkage in engaging disagreeing voices. Something is missing and gone badly wrong. The natives born here – living here or abroad can’t be ALL wrong and stupid, right? And PAPpys are still at it of harsher and harsher and even more ridiculous oppression. The LEE-jiapore utopia of PAPpypolitics and PAPpynomics must be fiction – relying solely on foreign influx to survive in a sea of seemingly wealth standing tall towards the sky of artificial beauties hard to find anywhere else of this density and no beggars to be seen – not even in Hong Kong where poverty is highly visible.

    FTs didn’t ask themselves this simple question – WHY IS IT MORE FISHES THRIVES IN DIRTY WATER THAN IN AQUARIUM. Why is diversity in every living species on planet earth INSTEAD OF ONE UNITARY TYPE surviving and thriving. When something don’t add up, the truth will STILL rule from the BURIAL GRAVEYARD OF OPPRESSION and natives cannot be wrong – this is proven in history.

    Oppression is artificial and anything that is artificial don’t work or last for long. Chiang Kai-Shek army couldn’t defeat Mao’s peasantry and feudal emperor’s throne are all rotational. Natives can’t be wrong. The French got whacked in Dien Pien Phu, Americans defeated in Vietnam thereafter. Russian got whipped by Talibans, Americans got the same caning next. Iraq is easy to defeat but impossible of occupation rule. When Indonesia invaded East Timor, Australia intervened militarily of containment but no Vietnam-type intervention, USA just watched and laughing in Washington. Foreigners can’t know more than the locals of native conditions and realities on the ground.

    DUMBFARKED FT Sillyzerean got used. PAPpys vote bank turned toxic.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz,

    VERY FEW PROPERTY MANIACS KNOW OF THESE FACTS – very dangerous blissful ignorance I would say-

    - US 10 yr Treasury bond yield was 1.43% in June 2016

    - the same 10-yr Treasury last week close at 3.23%

    - in September it was only 2.9%

    TAKE A LOOK AT THIS INTERACTIVE CHART – HISTORICAL CHARTS DON’T TELL LIES.

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate

    THAT IS TO SAY, in slightly more than 2 years, US interest rate measured on 10-yr bond yield, have moved up by 125% in such a short time. IF YOUR MORTGAGE INTEREST RISE 125% IN TWO YEARS AND YOUR PAY GREW BY 5% (GDP growth matched presumed), is there no pressure on living budgets?

    And in less than 2 weeks since turn into October, interest rate moved up by 10% – THE VELOCITY IS TELLING. Adding fuel to fire, Jerome Powell TURNED HAWKISH with little voices of dissension within the Fed. They must all know the inflation risks of runaway costs-push pressure now that Trump tariff trade war is disrupting global supply chain network creating shortages everywhere adding to costs push in the production channels and surplus unwanted in the wrong places.

    There is a lot more than meeting the eyes. And property maniacs totally blind to this tectonic change of interest rate environment yet they borrowed through their a*ses of debt leverage betting on risks they neither aware and comprehend of consequences. And there are those still buying private condo launches rushing to beat PAPpy Wong’s July 2018 property cooling measures??

    AND THEY EXPECT THAT PROPERTY PRICES WILL STILL GO UP as if the FAST ESCALATING UPWARD SHIFT in interest rate is of benign relevance. The good old days of yesteryears and decades of runaway property prices is waiting at their door of fortune to flood their lives with wealth.

    HOW MORE STUPID CAN THAT BE, MAY I ASK THIS LOT?

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  • oxygen:

    @ KENNETH SIM

    I WONDER ALOUD NOW WHO IS PAYING $800k++ for St. Michael’s 5-room BTO when that price embedded include “LOCATION” (impliedly, land value) when the title in 30 years times WILL ONLY evident A LEASOR/LESSEE transaction EXCLUDING any interest in the land?

    Unless the buyers of those 5-room HDB BTOs thinks a thousand bricks (or much less than that) and maybe 20 bags of cement (or less) plus some copper wires is worth $800K++ to pay with a mortgage of maybe $600K++ owed to financing institution with interest rate rising on the uptrend.

    Either they are very CLEVER or I am very stupid in derision of them here or both. I doubt I will live that long to discover, the buyers and peasants watching will enjoy the LAST LOUDEST LAUGHTER AMONG THEMSELVES!!

    I hope that he/she won’t be selling it one year after occupation or shorter period for $700K++ giving a 12.5% discount just like that Hong Kong property speculator (I illuminated above) did for his 375 sg ft apartment in Amoy Garden, Hong Kong recently.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @oxygen
    Just in: Global bonds are hitting fresh milestones of misery.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/bonds-in-916-billion-wipeout-spark-fear-of-worst-run-since-1976

    Singapore braces by introducing new regulatory measures for bond defaulters.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/singapore-opens-new-door-for-bondholders-to-chase-default-losses

    When interest rates increase, two things will occur: 1) Rates of saving will increase as socking money away becomes more lucrative. This will subtract from capital available for consumer purchases and expansion, and; 2) The amount the government will pay in service to the national debt will increase, further increasing the deficit along with the pressure on capital markets. Longer term the main problem is higher mortgage rates. The entire world is like financed between 3.5% – 4.25%. The prevailing SIBOR is pushing upwards 2% – 3.5%. Suppose one have a $950,000 mortgage at 3.5%. One will never move, not ever. You would pay massively more than you are now, and you would lose deductibility over $750,000. Now think about new first time buyers. Their standard deduction has doubled, meaning there is no incentives to owning a starter home.

    https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/singapore-condo-resale-prices-see-2nd-month-of-decline-with-02-dip-in-september-srx

    The legacy from the great era of low borrowing costs is over. At best this is a period of stagnation. At worst it’s financial turmoil. Here’s a short list of possibles:

    • Asset bubbles burst
    • Falling stock market due to higher interest rates and/or political uncertainty
    • Slowing economy, with fewer jobs, for the same reasons
    • Higher mortgage rates, making it harder to buy or sell a house
    • Wages rising, but not fast enough to help many families

    oxygen: VERY FEW PROPERTY MANIACS KNOW OF THESE FACTS – very dangerous blissful ignorance I would say-

    - US 10 yr Treasury bond yield was 1.43% in June 2016

    - the same 10-yr Treasury last week close at 3.23%

    - in September it was only 2.9%

    TAKE A LOOK AT THIS INTERACTIVE CHART – HISTORICAL CHARTS DON’T TELL LIES.There is a lot more than meeting the eyes. And property maniacs totally blind to this tectonic change of interest rate environment yet they borrowed through their a*ses of debt leverage betting on risks they neither aware and comprehend of consequences.
    AND THEY EXPECT THAT PROPERTY PRICES WILL STILL GO UP as if the FAST ESCALATING UPWARD SHIFT in interest rate is of benign relevance. The good old days of yesteryears and decades of runaway property prices is waiting at their door of fortune to flood their lives with wealth…

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    WAGES IS UNLIKELY TO BE RISING FORWARD, it will be down-trending globally as competition forces businesses towards automation via artificial intelligence.

    blockquote cite=”comment-1833953″>

    Haigen-diaz: • Wages rising, but not fast enough to help many families

    Those who think that they can gamble the property bet with employment income to sustain that mortgage lives in their own fantasy world. I am seeing this even in complex intricate unpredictable mining operations in Africa now. Look at Resolute Resources Limited (RSG)newest gold mine at Syama – IT IS GOING TO BE FULLY AUTOMATED – jobs including highly-skilled mining geologists/mining engineers will be gone. RSG is cutting costs from US$928 per oz to US$746 per oz to raise its profit profile and dividend for shareholders. See page 10 to page 13 in this weblink.

    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180925/pdf/43ylvjq4kdywxh.pdf

    I see the same thing in Barrick Gold in US – underground mining operations needing a few hundred employed now needs literally less than a handful comprising ONE mining engineer above ground with a LAPTOP as his entire workstation and a few low skilled workers underground to retrieve stuck equipment or merely checking fire safety in FULLY-AUTOMATED MINE – they even have smart sensors to detect where the mineralised gold veins traveling to eliminating jobs of underground exploration geologists – it now runs just like your computer game on your PC.

    Even direct-sonsumer service retailing jobs will be gone.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-5-retailers-are-following-sears-into-irrelevance-2018-10-08

    Starhub retrenched 300 jobs last week.

    Those who can work and work to the death on the job of diligence IS STILL NOT NEEDED SUDDENLY.

    Jobs will be increasingly scarce. Mortgage is 30 year slavery serfdom traps. Who can guarantee an INCOME FROM EMPLOYMENT forward from real estate engineers to accountants to mining engineers, to merchandising supervisors, to operations manager, to buyers to safety engineering to logistic managers. ALL these jobs can just disappear for someone with long-dated underwater mortgage. A retrenchment is a heart attack life ending episode.

    THOSE WHO SURVIVE I SUSPECT IS THOSE WHO ARE GOOD IN SELF-EMPLOYMENT OR AT LEAST ASSET TRADERS – jobs are disposable like napkins, so its businesses that is traded in the market place. But jobs depends on employer’s survivability. Self-employed you escape this trapped little mercy of job disappearance/sudden wage cut.

    YET IDIOTS STILL THINK THEY CAN GET RICH BY GAMBLING ON FALLING PROPERTY VALUES.

    AMAZING!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    SINKIE PROPERTY RAPISTS ARE THAT STUPID that it is just not funny anymore. In a world in which money source (employment/business) and liquidity (access to and affordable financing costs) vaporized to nothing at the blink of the eye – this fanatical mob does NOT think twice about leveraging on the future retirement security by maximising their CPF access and bank borrowings to speculate on property gambling.

    That they had to severely dependent on CPF for deposit PROVED that the property speculation is BEYOND their recurrent stable/unstable income reach of paid employment. As income stagnates over the last 10 years or grows marginally at snail’s pace, how can rising property prices sustain of economic value OTHER THAN PURE SPECULATION bubble unsustainable? Without the CPF accumulated over the years – barred of their finger’s and mind reach in that interval- property developers WON”T sell it to them with a smile on the buyer’s face!

    What sort of life is this?: The property sector is a gambling casino….Who is seriously monitoring this phenomenon and development, and taking helpful corrective measures to safeguard the many?

    Property-mad Sinkies is PILING RISKS on top of risks. One retrenchment, they are busted!

    Too many got sucked into PAPpys asset enhancement politics scam of -buy-property-vote-PAPpy deception – totally brainwashed and stopped thinking. Whoa, property is the stairway to Heavenly wealth – “underwritten and guaranteed” by PAPpy – just buy property and vote us (not the opposition or you repent), you “own” your HDB and it will rise forever like economics is fake and irrelevant. Well for this lot of STUPID ASS IMPOSSIBILITY, they deserves what they vote for – deceptions have caught up with PAPpys trickery.

    The outside world – the corporate mentality – is different – THEY WORKED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION of living and competing on the lean. Resolute Resources FULLY AUTOMATED in underground mining operation in African mine – the same way as Barrick Gold did at Artez gold mine. They know that DEBT AND EXTRAVAGANCE IS DEADLY.

    John Thorton, Barrick Chairman told shareholders that it nearly died from overloaded debt dependency.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/barrick-says-china-partner-for-copper-makes-all-kinds-of-sense-1.1121768

    Barrick, world’s largest gold mining entity got itself married to Rangold recently to save its ANUS.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/09/27/barrick-gold-randgold-merger-a-new-gold-mammoth-in-the-making/#4622807a211e

    Singkies stupid!

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  • Runaway situation.....:

    Over here, housing and also cars are expensive; two main items.
    It takes up a big chunk of one’s earnings.
    The expenses figures in the main part of one’s life.
    How did this come about?
    Why is it happening?
    Is it necessary?
    How do we compare to other countries where the necessary turnover of housing and car are concerned for the average individual.
    The Developers and the Bankers and the Administrators apparently worked together.
    The buying and selling of properties engaged the minds of most people over here throughout their lives.
    Upgrading, downgrading, speculating hopefully to make a quick buck, such thoughts occupy the minds of those many who don’t want to lose out or miss the chance or the boat.
    How do we compare to the average lives and livability of societies in other countries?
    Are we healthy in terms of wants, of necessities, of needs, of group societal mentality, individual mental development against such a position.
    Have we got our priorities correct in our development as a society, as a grouping, that is to raise quality families.
    Or are we not creating a climate tolerating speculation, encouraging participation in “gambling” in the property market building up greed.
    If not “gambling” then how do you define it, skills and smartness?
    And what happens to those who overstretch with wrong bets?
    And what happens to the many who are cautious and who are afraid and do not indulge and hence do not “benefit”.
    Those who made from enblocs, some happy, some unhappy as not enough or forcibly have to move out, and not forgetting many watching at the sidelines green with envy.
    And on and on this unique situation continues.
    Is it good to stop it, control or just condone it?

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  • oxygen:

    @ Runaway situation.

    BELIEVE ME, I MET LEE-jiapore trained property-mad MBAs this STUPID who claims that property value will easily doubled or even more WITHIN 10 YEARS. That was maybe 7 to 8 years ago. I didn’t see their predictions came to fruition. I didn’t want to rebut then – it is unsociable.

    Runaway situation.....: Or are we not creating a climate tolerating speculation, encouraging participation in “gambling” in the property market building up greed.
    If not “gambling” then how do you define it, skills and smartness?
    And what happens to those who overstretch with wrong bets?
    And what happens to the many who are cautious and who are afraid and do not indulge and hence do not “benefit”.
    Those who made from enblocs, some happy, some unhappy as not enough or forcibly have to move out, and not forgetting many watching at the sidelines green with envy.
    And on and on this unique situation continues.
    Is it good to stop it, control or just condone it?

    BUT IT TELLS ME THEY ARE STUPID TO RIDICULOUS. The economy is growing at 2% to 3% annually – most of that comes from housing, infrastructure construction supported by foreign influx and at least half a million cheap foreign construction workers. Take this out, the GDP will slow to sub 0.5% growth per annum. Ignore this distortion and assuming the average of 2.5% growth is evenly spread through all sectors of the economy, your ACCUMULATED WEALTH GROWTH WOULD BE 25% TO 30% TO ORIGINAL BASE.

    How can property price rise 100% within a decade (or even more they claim!!) UNLESS ALL THOSE GDP GAIN is somehow channeled to and restrict to benefit only property investment which exerts NO PRODUCTIVE EFFORTS AND NO REAL WEALTH CREATION?

    The mob of property fanatics must have been stupid working on the job struggling to achieve 2.5% to 3% GDP growth or getting 10% salary growth per year for 10 years WHEN THEY COULD HAVE JUST SAT ON THEIR A*SE and collect more than 100% gain in property gambling in 10 years. I assume they have no borrowing costs. Still it is a MYSTERY to me why property gambling exclusively “must” generate at least 10% wealth gain when the rest of the economy is struggling to do 0.5% growth (if you take out the construction-related gain) in the economy.

    That is minus property gambling, the rest of LEE-jiapore Sinkies must be really stupid to work in whatever job they are doing when they should all speculate in property and reap at least 10% growth per annum.

    The moral of the story is when you get 5 to 10 “smart” MBAs TOGETHER, they all reduce to MORONS.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @oxygen
    @Runaway situation

    Conspicuous consumption filters its way down society’s material chain too. How many people do you know who have the most recent (and expensive) iPhone/watches but no real need for it? Or drive an expensive vehicle they can barely make lease payments on? Sometimes, however, the fault lies not in ourselves but in our stars. Sometimes it’s fair to evaluate a system by the results it produces. We have to decide what kind of society we want to have, and then honestly evaluate the trade-offs to get there. Is this the kind of Singapore we want to live in? And if not, what can we do about it. As soon as people have a little, they seem to want a lot more. In highly unequal societies that becomes politically unstable ostentatious display of wealth becomes dangerous until the shrinking pie that is our economy/employment/wages contract by something like 30% while costs have continually risen and particularly in the sectors where the less economically viable people have to spend money: gas, rent/mortgages, groceries, insurance, medical bills which Oxygen & others had been warning about in this thread. When reality hits home, the meltdown already started!

    oxygen: Property-mad Sinkies is PILING RISKS on top of risks. One retrenchment, they are busted!

    Runaway situation.....: Over here, housing and also cars are expensive; two main items.
    It takes up a big chunk of one’s earnings.
    The expenses figures in the main part of one’s life.
    How did this come about?

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    I TOO HAVE A STRONG PREMONITION that a nasty meltdown already underway too. A lot of fools are going to get badly hurt and reduced to a lifetime of servitude economic slavery if they survive.

    Haigen-diaz: Oxygen & others had been warning about in this thread. When reality hits home, the meltdown already started!

    With virtually naked brevity & fairy-tale like hallucination, @ PC Ong wrote this opening volley.

    PC Ong: The global economy has been solid and we are seeing strong wage growth. Singaporeans typically don’t overspend, so they have huge savings. And most Singaporeans feel property is still the best investment available. All these explain the continued demand and price increase for property

    To which I kicked head 4 days ago

    oxygen: @ PC Ong

    FIRST TO THE POST, all rubbish.

    and now Dallas Fed President, R. Kaplan warned of these

    Dallas Fed President :The 10-year Treasury yield, which reached a fresh multi-year high on Tuesday, shows “there are lots of conflicting factors going on” including trade and waning fiscal stimulus,…Prior to last week’s abrupt market move, the year-long flattening of the yield curve suggested that “prospects for future U.S. growth are somewhat sluggish,”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-kaplan/rising-yields-suggests-conflicting-factors-over-u-s-growth-feds-kaplan-idUSKCN1MJ1LO

    Of course, @ PC Ong is clueless of how fast bond yields runs away since October and that in the last 6 months BOND YIELDS ARE ALSO RISING IN EU as well.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned yesterday that there could be “a sudden deterioration in risk sentiment.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/listen-to-the-imfs-new-warning-economist-says-and-cut-your-exposure-to-us-stocks.html

    AS I WRITE AT THIS MOMENT, BREAKING NEWS ON CNBC SAYS THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL INDEX OPENED AT A 250 POINTS DROP, led by tech sector – this is much bigger than the futures index traded all day today.

    The financial market is not just very nervous of bond yield volatility BUT ALSO THE VELOCITY OF CLIMB before global economy recovers on a firmer footing.

    I suspect the feel good factor of Trump tax cut on earning is over. Budget deficit/trade war/rising bond yield is gonna sink global economy…

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz, YOU ARE DAMNED RIGHT – the bloodletting has begun as I also warned @ Meritocratic Bluff below THREE DAYS AGO of blood on the street or water before we may discover the near bottom of this market/economic cycle downturn.

    Well, the SLAUGHTER has just begun last night in NY. The Dow tumbled 831 pts (SPX 74 pts and Nasdaq 315 pts) the biggest ONE-DAY fall since the end of tthe last GFC.

    oxygen: I am confident that there will be blood on the street or in the water of floating corpses before you can discover its nearness to the hoped for bottom.

    And one economist – post hindsight – warned of this

    M. Pearce, Capital Economics : the U.S. economy is close to a tipping point.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-one-economist-says-trump-is-right-about-the-fed-2018-10-10

    Like I said 5 days ago, @ PC Ong was talking rubbish of strong global economy.

    oxygen: @ PC Ong

    FIRST TO THE POST, all rubbish. It reveals that you must be a property maniac fanatic.

    PAPpy Wong who pressed down the brake in July must be laughing at your IDIOTIC ECONOMICS of hallucination fantasy. He comes from strong economics background.

    Those property-mad fanatics are either CLUELESS of the real state of global economy and/or the shivering state of financial market (evident in the bond market volatility) or they are IN DENIAL OF REALITIES obvious to others.

    Same like those Sinkieland-trained MBAs I met 7-8 years ago, they are TOO CLOSE STARING THE TREE TRUNKS (of irrational exuberance) that they CAN’T SEE THE FOREST of complex realities i.e. property gambling CAN’T YIELD 10% CONSISTENTLY FOR 10 YEARS when the underlying economy is barely struggling head above water at 0.5% GDP growth per annum. It is IMPOSSIBLE of reality except in a crazy bubble. In analogy, it is like you have $100 in a bank which pays you 0.5% interest pa and you expect your balance to reach $200 or more in less than 10 years WHEN YOU BARELY EARN ENOUGH TO FEED YOURSELF IN THAT 10 YEARS AND NOT ADDING TO YOUR BANK DEPOSIT BALANCE.

    Property speculator’s mind resides in a bubble of their own living in their own fantasy of fiction.

    Oil last night fall in NY – that is another danger sign that the US/global economy is tipping over. IMF warning of a sudden shift in credit/risks sentiments is to be taken seriously. I am seeing OZ mining stocks taking big hits too.

    STAY TUNED.

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  • oxygen:

    DOWN UNDER, BASE METAL SHARES of industrial demand is down 3% across the board – mirroring the percentage decline in NY stock indices. Oil shares down closer to a whopping 5% on an average – a hint of falling energy demand in any economic downturn forward. My manganese share (used in steel manufacturing needed for housing and infrastructure construction) down almost 6% from opening bell.

    BUT GOLD SHARES ARE UP OR AT LEAST HOLDING TO OVERNIGHT LEVELS – an indication of market flight to “safe haven” – despite an easing overnight of bond yield in NY.

    Financial markets turmoil in NY and commodities heavy-laden Australian stock exchange is telling me this conflicting risks which Kaplan, Dallas FED President (above in this thread) in economy and financial markets. Trump’s good news of better corporate earnings this qtr helped by tax cut WON’T be repeated forward. The “good news” of strong corporate earnings in US is already priced-in the valuation of BUBBLY STOCK PRICES on NYSE and that took a big punch on the nose and black eye last night. Trumponomics is FIRST JOY, PAIN LATER is coming to roost. Chinese wisdom says Sian Koo Hou Tain (first the bitterness struggle will bring the sweetness of success later) is hitting home now as I can see. Trumpnomics tax cut is UNFUNDED of expected tax revenue from tax cut – TOO BIG in relative contrasting offset – the gain in earnings is not generating enough tax to offset the costs of Trumps tax cut. THAT AGGRAVATES THE US BUDGET DEFICIT and national debt now hitting past US$21 trillion – bigger than its GDP base. As the Fed raise interest rate, the budget blowout is expected to blow out yet again BECAUSE RISING INTEREST PAYMENT. That will aggravate national indebtedness further. IT IS A VICIOUS CYCLE OF CONTINUING PAIN PILING ON MORE PAIN REPEATING.

    Buyers of US treasury bills will demand higher and higher interest rate WHICH IN PRACTICAL REALITY IS BEYOND THE FED CONTROL. The Fed can adjust the short-term interest rate of Fed fund, maybe 2-yr treasury bills BUT LONGER YIELD BOND ISSUES IS MARKET DETERMINED WHOLLY. Which global investors like Chinese sovereign wealth funds will buy US bonds at low interest rate when the US Government is heading the direction of insolvency of self-made misery??

    Higher interest rate will hit corporate earnings bottom line too. There could be retrenchments ahead as corporate struggles to leaner operaions in effort to shore up their balance sheet just like Barrick Gold/Resolute Resources as examples.

    Saw last night the big fall in tech stocks – they are NOT spared of the market slaughter.

    HOW CAN PROPERTY MARKET IN LEE-jiapore not get badly bruised forward??

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  • Keep your counsel, thanks:

    Jman:
    Before we jump to conclusions, we have to remember that the property market cycles take some time to play out. This is on thin volumes, so it isn’t likely to be sustainable.

    The property market is not like the temperaments of millennials. The property market isn’t going to respond immediately and fully straight after a Government announcement or policy change.

    Be realistic.

    Be realistic. The property market is a gambling den, a casino.
    What are your views about gambling and gamblers?
    You don’t go through life living as a gambler.
    There are other more important and useful things to do in this short transient existence.

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  • oxygen:

    RIGHT FROM THE PROVERBIAL HORSE’S MOUTH, this is what Ravi Menon, Managing Director of Monetary Authority of Singapore said in an interview yesterday.
    It is in bloomberg.com website today for those property-mad fanatics can Google this.

    Singapore Central Bank Keeping Close Watch on Property Market

    Ravi Menon:Singapore’s surging property market had been out of sync amid slowing economic growth and a rising interest rate environment, and that was not sustainable….The property market, before we implemented the cooling measures, was pretty hot,” said Menon. “This was a wrong time to see a renewed property bubble. Not that there was a bubble, but we wanted to preempt that.”

    My question back to Ravi Menon is this – WHEN IS A PROPERTY BUBBLE BECOMES A BUBBLE? Is it after a global financial market crash, economy recession and property owners doing sky diving spattering blood on the street or otherwise learning to swim leaving blood in the water of floating corpses?

    BUT A FEW THINGS IS CLEAR.

    Those who bought property before his property cooling measures of July and thereafter (he say it takes at least 2 qtrs to see if it does the price correction he wants to see taking effect) PAY WAY TOO MUCH for their buy because it is out of sync with rising interest rate environment and weaking global and domestic economic conditions emerging.

    Secondly those who bought in the last 18 months has no upside potential, only downside risks BECAUSE THEY OVERPAID.

    Thirdly, MAS has silently stated that it won’t let property prices climb back to its 2011 peak again unless economy boom is roaring away. Given property prices – despite the cooling measures of July this year – is hardly a steep fall from 2011 levels, there must be a lot of room for it to correct downwards. This is consistently with my own interpretation above.

    oxygen: I am confident that there will be blood on the street or in the water of floating corpses before you can discover its nearness to the hoped for bottom.

    and FINALLY, IF GLOBAL ECONOMY TAKES A BAD TURN FOR THE WORST, and Trumponomics is getting us all there of trade wars screwing China and the world, his tax cut and runaway budget deficit and national debt borrowings EXPLODING, we might just get there with rising interest rate as inflation soared undercutting corporate profits.

    With retrenchments, more desperate sellers than eager STUPID buyers, MY TAKE IS THAT PROPERTY PRICE IS HEADING FOR A BIG FALL in LEE-jiapore.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    Asian equities have followed the U.S.’s negative lead and so far, five of the region’s 12 biggest equity markets have exceeded the S&P 500′s 3.3% slump from Wednesday — including China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. China shares down more than 4% Stocks slumped across Asia, where China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 5.2%. Taiwan’s technology-heavy TWSE Index tumbled over 6%, Japan’s Topix declined 3.5% while South Korea’s Kospi fell 4.4%. EM currencies are relatively unscathed today, they might have fallen along with stocks — if it weren’t for President Donald Trump’s comments about a “loco” Fed putting the dollar on the back foot. Given the trade war isn’t easing and the U.S. mid-terms are coming up with geopolitical, trade and rate pressures show no sign of diminishing, we probably haven’t seen the end of this rout. While the numbers may suggest the bulk of the selling might be over, it would be naive to suggest American equities will have a V-shaped recovery today. Oxy, I absolutely AGREE with your PROPERTY MARKET IN LEE-jiapore will get badly bruised forward. So buckle up for more fireworks tonight, but also keep one eye open for bargains if you’re short-selling.

    oxygen: Saw last night the big fall in tech stocks – they are NOT spared of the market slaughter.

    HOW CAN PROPERTY MARKET IN LEE-jiapore not get badly bruised forward??

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    INDEED THERE WERE MORE FIREWORKS LAST NIGHT, both in US and major EU bourses.

    Haigen-diaz: So buckle up for more fireworks tonight

    Your illumination of Asian market is informative, thank you for that. The steep falls, I discovered, is NOT the first one in 2018, it is the third in 10 months,. How many more “accident/s” to come before mortality fatality? This one is toxic – equities/bond market lost their usual negative correlation – that means people who sold out of stocks usually find refuge in bond and reverse. This time they fled into gold – just like sovereign govt like Poland, Australia, India, Thailand, China, Russia and even shaky emerging economies like Argentina and Indonesia!! Can’t believe this is happening of flight into gold as safe haven. Me suspect that Christine Largarde, IMF boss, is correct – it is the devilish results of Trumponomics payback time.

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/10/tariff-decisions-are-eroding-confidence-in-many-corners-of-the-world-imfs-lagarde.html

    His trade war agenda is hitting every corner of the earth. He even double down on his attack on Fed’s J. Powell calling him loco (Spanish word for crazy).

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/trump-says-the-federal-reserve-has-gone-crazy.html

    He ven calls the Fed “cute”, another snide attack on Fed independence mandated at law.

    Christine Largarde won’t have a bar with that in this rebuke.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/crazy-fed-imfs-lagarde-refutes-trump-on-jay-powell-policy.html

    Sly D. Trump is playing devil with global economy. He is that corrupt judge hurl excrement on everyone else as if he is the DIVINE saint and all those disagreeing are evil and wrong.

    The TRUTH IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE.

    Judge “Trump Boy” is the devil tyrant who, perhaps, deliberate confusing “event” with “response.” He is pretending he does not know that an insect (event) cannot be an animal (response) and an animal cannot be an insect. It is a VERY DANGEROUS WORLD to live in if the two are the same. A tyrant tiger eats you up and a mozzie only irritates you for a moment.

    An event is a happening of causative trigger and a response is a reaction. US manufacturing outsourced its cheap parts and labor to China – there is SEQUENTIAL INTERDEPENDENCY in global supply chain. Trump’s response? Tariff on Chin and screw the world even when Trump knows he is wrong. C. Largarde is right of Trump’s tariff convulsion to the rest of the world.

    GLOBAL ECONOMY IS HIT, MORE DANGEROUS of survival each day, if Trumps rules the earth. Lee-jiapore will die. Property, how ah?

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    ADDING ON to my comments on Trump’s vitriolic attacks on Fed independence and IMF’s boss, C. Largarde’s public rebuke, he does NOT repent. All tyrants behaves the same, THEY BOTH STOPPED THINKING AND STOPPED LISTENING and the finality outcome is always predictable – a ruin of wreckage destruction in the aftermath. Trump said he will meet up with Xi in Argentina in a global forum to find a solution. He has the brute force of power and will BUT HE UNDERESTIMATED THE RESISTANCE ON THE GROUND (Xi’s Chinese will take a lot more pain than American can last of same punishment inflicted on the entire world, both US and China included). Remember Vietnam war, the communists took not days or months to agree to the sitting and shape of the negotiating table BUT YEARS just to agree on sitting arrangement for Vietcong & South Vietnamese regime. The Chinese backed North Vietnam – a weaker party has the advantage of resolve – NEVER SAY DIE, so dictatorship ALL FINALLY FALLS in disintegration.

    In that Paris peace talks, the communist dragged negotiation to infinity deadline and in the darkness of peaceful overtures, they launch a surprise attack on the southern Highland, split S. Vietnam into two, Danang without a fight and in a few weeks conquered Saigon. The moral of history is that China, like Vietnam, will outlast endurance of suffering than American could last of one year of financial hardship. Trump is going to win the battle in Argentina, the Chinese making no concession AND WIN THE WAR OF ATTRITION in a protracted trade war.

    And in this scenario, global economy, especially emerging countries will live near starvation of too much US$ debt, higher interest costs (Fed fighting inflation because disrupted supply chain means shortages in everyting everywhere and tariff imposition adding to costs). The World Bank President is correct, poor countries needs free trade to live slightly above poverty starvation.Imagine Indonesia, just next door collapse alongside Thailand and Philippines – a bigger crisis than the 1997 Asian currency crisis erupts and China in a turmoil, can’t spend on infrastructure to lift the global economy out of a tailspin.

    BOTTOMLINE IS THIS RAVI MENON, MAS BOSS, DID A VERY GOOD THING – he slammed the brake on property speculation just in time. He saved a lot of stupid soul from walking blind into the abattoir. Those PROPERTY-MAD IDIOTS who rushed in just B4 2011 election year peak and in that en bloc craze B4 july 2018 anti-cooling measure are ALL DEAD CORPSES, can’t be rescued. They way overpaid beyond sustainable economic drivers. MAS will not let property PRICE rise back to 2011 insanity.

    SAVE THE REST!!

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @oxygen
    On Thursday, Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients. Singapore housing curbs won’t cool prices which is expected to rise 10% by end-2019, double by 2030.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-12/singapore-housing-curbs-won-t-cool-prices-morgan-stanley-says?srnd=markets-vp

    Watching the bankers in JP Morgan/Morgan Stanley on Wall Street in America and those in Singapore is, to say the least, surreal. JP Morgan changed its’ status to commercial while Morgan Stanley to investment banks so they could access cheap money from the Fed, using this free money to create leveraged trades in currency, stock and forex markets. Now with FED hikes looming, they are no longer borrowing at close to zero percent so instead try lending it out to businesses under real estate and project finance. All of the real estate investors (aka PC Ong), convinced they were missing the boat to vast riches. Never underestimate the ability of someone to not understand something when his livelihood depends on him not understanding.
    Ravi Menon attempting to strengthen the Singdollar at faster pace as reported shows that our assets are dropping in value quickly, and in order to keep prices steady MAS has to take actions.

    https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/mas-to-strengthen-singdollar-at-faster-pace-expects-economic-growth-to-moderate

    It also shows that price of our exports decline by a greater rate than our imports, and the terms of trade have deteriorates….so a weak currency where the property is located poses risks for international/local landlords as this reduces sale/rental income.

    What Trump loves about tariffs is that he can impose them selectively and capriciously, the kind of power all authoritarian leaders yearn for. Not even two months after the start of Trump’s trade wars, companies are shifting to production centers outside the US and closings of US plants, one was announced in South Carolina last week. So far, hundreds of jobs have been lost in both US & China as a consequence of this stupidity. There is no sign Trump will relent. Yet Trump, with the blessings of the GOP, is hurting the global economy each rising day. Unless Trump is denied his second term and the trade wars subjugated, property market here rises? Beats me.

    oxygen:
    GLOBAL ECONOMY IS HIT, MORE DANGEROUS of survival each day, if Trumps rules the earth. Lee-jiapore will die. Property, how ah?
    BOTTOMLINE IS THIS RAVI MENON, MAS BOSS, DID A VERY GOOD THING – he slammed the brake on property speculation just in time.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    MATE, IT BEATS ME TOO, I am flatten by this knock-out forecast. MS is sticking to ITS GUN of its LAST YEAR FORECAST when conditions were very different.

    Haigen-diaz: @oxygen
    On Thursday, Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients. Singapore housing curbs won’t cool prices which is expected to rise 10% by end-2019, double by 2030.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-12/singapore-housing-curbs-won-t-cool-prices-morgan-stanley-says?srnd=markets-vp…..

    Beats me.

    Unless MS knows something that R.Menon of MAS doesn’t know, I did glad to be “advised” other than its long-horizon telescopic vision 10 yr down the track. The strong growth of GDP in MS forecast were all based on CONSTRUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURAL SPENDING – it is, in economic reality terms, our own stimulus spending of quantitative easing i.e. manuring the economy of tax-funded money. Those few projects of MS mention isn’t going to remotely double our GDP base in 10 yrs.

    I haven’t seen property prices rises 100% in the last 10 yrs since 2011 peak under most favourable interest rate environment, why is the next 10 yrs be any better in adversity of interest rate upswing? Interest rate have in the last 10 yr fallen drastically, mind you, down to a low of US 10 yr Treasury touching 1.25% in June 2016 bottom and now dancing much higher at 3.15% overnight in NY. The credit cycle has turned – MS forecast casually mentioned that without rigorously assessing its impact of risk speculation. Since the last GFC, it was cheap money until 2016, and then the reverse in UPTURN this time. So MS forecast BEATS ME FLAT DOWN ON THE CANVAS in that metaphorical ring!

    Perhaps, the analysts at MS wants to read this scary reality news, not speculation or clairvoyant telescopic vision. The mining industry spoke of the extent of disruption in the physical commodities market – it is near frozen of active trade because of Trump’s trade war taking effects.

    LME Week metals puzzle is how to trade a trade war

    http://www.mining.com/web/lme-week-metals-puzzle-trade-trade-war/

    There is surplus/deficits and BOTTLENECKS in the same commodities everywhere that left metal traders bewildered of trading. Coupled that with supply risks from geopoliticals upheavel of Trump’s instigation and causation of trade sanctions against Iran,Venezuela, Russia etc etc, price volatility will disrupt global economic production function of final goods supply and also mining production. Inflation is creeping in everywhere as govt in China, USA collects tariff, pass it on to consumers.

    to continue.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz,

    continue from above…inflation is on the run hitting consumers’ pocket never mind the fiction of CPI fake inflation statistical measure of basket of goods and service WHICH NO LONGER REFLECT THE REAL CHANGE in consumer’s costs of living (CPI stats no longer reflective of inflationary spiral) in the world, more notably in US and China as key protagonists with ripple effects around the world. Trump belittled J. Powell & Fed repeatedly – that justifiable deserved the slap from C. Largarde from IMF and World Bank President. The White House stupidly told the world this – stock price will boom after this current correction. In over 40 years of gambling in the casino, I have never heard an incumbent president or retired president or Head of Government obssessed with stock market as if it is the correct sole proxy of his/her administration performance. TRUMP IS A IDIOT COMPLETE of no comparison. He can’t fired J. Powell because if he dares, the financial market will slap him with a massive waterfall collapse that he won’t mention about stock market performance for the rest of his lift. Powell did the right thing – sent Trump to his little stupidity corner of the Oval Office and suck his thumb.

    Trump probably haven’t woke up yet. The US market is SELLING BOND (yields are falling off a little from its high of 3.24%) instead of merely selling equities. That tells me that investors are fleeing from US treasuries in times of uncertainty. They think long-dated bond yield will NOT compensate for higher inflation that is seeping in and rippling apart wealth underneath. And the certainty is that with this clash with Xi China, Trump threw away 4 decades of trusts and reciprocal cooperative relationships on the economic front at least and worst still political warmth even of contested global hegemony. IT WILL NEVER BE THE SAME. If Chinese bought US Treasuries in the last 3 days, you will see falling yields (bond price move inversely to yields) and rising US dollar. THAT IS NOT HAPPENING AT ALL! Financial markets sold equities, SOLD COMMODITIES including oil BUT THEY BOUGHT GOLD AND GOLD SHARES (another scary ominous sign)

    US market wipes out more than 400-pt gain at opening to close merely up 287 pts on DJIA.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dows-powerful-opening-friday-rally-is-fizzling–fast-2018-10-12

    That tells me the rebound is weak and vulnerable next week. When Chinese don’t buy bond, no big buyer left to support US treasury. That means higher bond yields and interest rate which CAN TURN VICIOUS OF ITS OWN VOLITION. The US dollar will fall adding to import costs for US consumers.

    to continue

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen Diaz

    continuing from 2 posts above, a falling US dollar will pose more risks for foreign investors stuck with existing holdings of US Treasury. Higher yields forward will depress bond valuations and prices. There is no net gain forward but ONLY RISKS ESCALATION as Trump’s corporate tax cut is ONE-OFF boosting corporate earnings this qtr and next but that could vaporized as IMPORTED CHEAP CHINESE INTERMEDIATE GOODS AND RUNAWAY COMMODITIES PRICES (make worst by falling US dollar) fuels inflation and US costs of production. This trade tariff war is a NO WIN for US, China and the world too. Foreigners invested in US faced additional jeopardy – HIGHER US FISCAL BUDGET DEFICIT AND NATIONAL INDEBTEDNESS as higher interest rate environment add to its interest servicing costs of government. This is another vicious cycle waiting to slap Trump the idiot in the face again.

    You see the US created its own problem and blames China for it. It has been living beyond its means and pay it with fiat currency (US$) by selling its Treasuries to China/Chinese investors. To feed its greed, it outsourced cheap manufacturing to China and the rest of the world. Now it wants those jobs back but no capacity to replace this low-wage costs manufacturing UNLESS IT WANTS TO PAY HIGHER WAGES and uncompetitive in global market. They are stuck.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/12/treasury-secretary-mnuchin-china-selling-us-treasurys-in-relatiation-over-trade-would-be-costly.html

    Treasury Secretary S Mnuchin boasted he is not afraid of China selling its holding of US treasury. He talked CAWKED.

    If China sells US treasury now, bond yields will collapse, US interest rate skyrocketing, US stock market will crash and banking sector lending will face another tremor much worst than 2008 when total household and govt debt was much lower than present. Households in US will bankrupt like dominoes.

    Without the Chinese selling US Treasuries, interest rate in US will continue to rise until the economy breaks of collapsed consumer spending capacity.

    Either way, I see dark clouds ahead -

    - rising interest rate will hurt consumers spending and escalated US govt debt implosion

    - and when that happens, recession will come visiting.

    THIS WILL BE AT A TIME CHINA IS WEAKEN BY PROTRACTED TRADE WAR AND OVER-LEVERAGED DOMESTIC ECONOMY.

    A recession in US alongside China in 2019 and Singapore economy still got strong growth forecast of MS?

    And property prices in Singapore rise by another 10%?

    ME THINKS THIS IS CATCHING WIND BLOWING PAST WITH YOUR CLENCHED FIST!

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @oxygen
    Thank you for a labor of complete illuminating analysis.
    The Trump administration is just transferring taxes from the passive income of corporate shareholders to the consuming public. If prices can be passed along tax receipts from corporate tax cuts will be replaced by the tariff when it enters the US. If they can’t be passed along, corporate profit will decline and corporate investment will decline with it. Political vitriol will probably make the US loss of market share permanent. USA is no longer a taxable wealth creating nation, but is now a taxable wealth consuming (destroying) debtor nation. Its’ citizens are selling or letting the government mortgage privately held US located assets as collateral for US treasury bonds to pay for government payrolls, entitlements, contracts and other government activities (plus foreign made consumer products). In any trade war, the nations that accumulates more (taxable) wealth VIA FOREIGN TRADE wins, and some nations go bankrupt by spending their existing wealth, plus borrowed money using their existing privately owned taxable wealth as collateral for loans. If every week the tariffs change, which is exactly what has been happening. The markets will remain in a constant state of chaos. Nobody sensible will spend capital to build new factories when that investment could be wiped out overnight by yet another tariff change. For instance, Korea make steel faster and cheaper than the U.S. does, so no problem sourcing new buyers. That leaves the U.S. with only one customer, itself. The law of supply and demand is axiomatic. In order to grow, companies have to expand their customer base i.e. demand. With higher domestic production costs, the other countries can take advantage of that, and build their customer base larger. Once that customer base is in place, it is very difficult to break into it. Trump has to learn that the United States is no longer the center of the universe.

    oxygen: Higher yields forward will depress bond valuations and prices. There is no net gain forward but ONLY RISKS ESCALATION as Trump’s corporate tax cut is ONE-OFF boosting corporate earnings this qtr and next but that could vaporized as IMPORTED CHEAP CHINESE INTERMEDIATE GOODS AND RUNAWAY COMMODITIES PRICES (make worst

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    THANK YOU @ Haigen Diaz FOR SHARING THIS CONVERSATION, I am also enjoying your insightful thoughts.

    Haigen-diaz: @oxygen
    Thank you for a labor of complete illuminating analysis.

    In particular, I like your reference to

    Haigen-diaz: USA is no longer a taxable wealth creating nation, but is now a taxable wealth consuming…. nation

    LEE-jiapore is heading the same way. MS optimism is resting on the same premises of economic fallacy that wealth is created by massive spending of “house shifting” and infrastructural blow-out funded out of tax-funding – PAPpys intending on increasing GST to 9% consumption tax from mouth to anus. In similar vein – if U go back to economic history – US shift from taxable wealth creating nation to taxable wealth consuming economy began in the Nixon era. Nixon’s notorious Treasury Secretary, John Connally, famously said these words when he forcefully uttered these words – THE DOLLAR IS OUR CURRENCY, BUT IT IS YOUR PROBLEM.

    https://www.ipe.com/the-dollar-is-our-currency-but-its-your-problem/25599.fullarticle

    Conally famously earned a nickname Typhoon in Tokyo in US political lexicon. He has neither kindergarten education in economics and finance but brazenly abandoned the US$-gold convertibility, and inter alia, unilaterally imposed a 10% TARIFF IMPORT DUTIES on all dutiable goods into US. This is called “Nixon Shock”. LEE-jiapore is heading the same way – aspiring leadership are economics and finance illiterate coming from one familiar background. When challenged of his economic credentials, Typhoon Connally quipped – I can add!.

    HILARIOUS!!

    I am reminded of David Stockman’s revelation of Ronald Reagan’s expertise on finance and economics and numerical skills. Stockman was, of course, Reagan’s Budget Director, who quit in utter exasperation of not only Reagan’s void emptiness of finance but more tiresome that Reagan COULD NOT ADD UP CORRECTLY two sets of numbers! He was a Hollywood “economist” before elevation to Presidency. When asked of the 19 October 1987 global stock market crash and what is its impact on US economy – Reagan grinned and said this – IT IS THE STOCK MARKET THING!

    John Conally is a little bit smarter than Ronald Reagan in the pervese. It brutally twisted the Japanese into silent agreement to manipulate the Japanese Yen upward (de facto devaluation of US$) in that now notoriously known Plaza accord.

    to be continued.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    JOHN CONNALLY is dead right of his brutality – the dollar is our currency, but it is your problem! In effect, the US upturn the downturn of economic doctrine – it is making foreigners paying tax on its export to US, just like Trump did to Chinese and other foreigner exporting to US now. Since the days of Nixon’s era, US really became a tax regime on wealth consumption. We eat, spend, and party beyond our economic productive capacity and sustainability – YOU B*STARDS FOREIGNERS will supply us cheap, pay tax at our door to sell us, AND WE PAY YOU WITH PRINTING MORE US DOLLAR of fiat (decreasing value) dollar and we shall pay for your trade deficit by selling you US Treasury bill that is progressively of diminishing value as well given inflationary effect of purchasing power over time. And that is what China is stuck with – trillions of US Treasury – the US printing press just work over-time and cheap Chinese exports into US is killing US jobs and productive capacity. Instead of leadership in innovation and manufacturing prowess, US is a consumption economy and its government tax on consumption “wealth” to pay for its bills of interest costs on national sovereign and private household debt accumulating- just like YOU HAVE SAID OF TAX ON CONSUMPTION “WEALTH”.

    In reality, it is NOT wealth. It is this of a more succinct interpretation is provided by Paul Krugman: “Americans make a living selling each other houses, paid for with money borrowed from the Chinese.” Given its fundamental flaws… will certainly lead to a dramatic decline in the US dollar. However, the timing of this collapse is anything but certain and unlikely to be imminent.

    LEEjiapore is no different. We are hollowing out our manufacturing capacity, and every other dumdfarked Sinkies’s mindset is this – we strive to make a living selling each other houses (property) at higher price.. and trying to get rich by borrowing from the banks and finding suckers to take it of our hands in the soonest possible future. And the govt? It has its own queer economic formula – spend spend spend – by using detained CPF money, bring in planeloads of cheaper foreigners to add to consumption (never mind no productive enterprise) to construct artificial beauties etc etc but tax all inhabitants higher GST from mouth to anus.

    The US$ has global convertibility, they can let foreigners pay for it with Tresury bills, printing US$ and tariff duties.

    And LEE-jiapore, sell backside or what? Our population recycling economics has failed. Without strong earnings growth sustainable to fund property SPECULATION (not production), can property price rise forever??

    STUPID ECONOMICS, LAH!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    RICHARD NIXON AND RONALD REAGAN are two outstanding economic and finance morons unparalleled of modern economic history. They thought that the US is the centre of the universe.

    Haigen-diaz: Trump has to learn that the United States is no longer the center of the universe.

    Trump is the next/most recent moron economist – in reality,only a monkey dressed up in a tuxedo. Still a monkey, he hasn’t quite woke up to two realities

    - the US dollar is our currency, but it is your problem fallacy has BACKFIRED since Nixon’s era and the trials/tribulation and turbulence now are a lot bigger now of containment and risks management.

    - no US govt or a collective of governments be that G7 is/are a master of our economic destination by architectural and engineering design, the unpredictable force of economic evolution is too powerful to resist, just like the tsunami rolling in from the sea sweeping out all and sundry without discrimination. Smarter lucky ones survives another day, stupid ones just extinct faster.

    LEE-jiapore is the same – if we have the next leadership without the strongest economic bent, we will extinct faster. We can’t afford a Nixon, Reagan or Trump economic illiterate in the driver’s seat and we certainly no LONGER AFFORD TO THINK OF SELLING HOUSES TO OUR NEXT DOOR NEIGHBOURS looking for profits, mortgaging our backsides to the lending bankers and failing that of property speculation casino, we incinerate ourselves.

    PAPpys can NO LONGER rely on these failed formulae

    - doubling down on its failed population economics to lift consumption spending at the margin of low income-driven mass consumption and the Govt taxing its impoverished inhabitants (including foreigners) from the mouth to anus to survive the day waiting for the next tsunami economic hit rolling in to determine who will survive and who will be drowned in debt.

    - doubling up its FIX the Opposition politics in seeking to brutally exerts AND EXTENDING ANOTHER DAY of its hegemony and longevity by escalation with its obsession of M*ST*RB*TING its law of oppression and THEY ARE STILL AT IT NOW.

    And as for the 70% peasants too stupid to even begin to discover they are stupid to impossibility, you mob better wake up now before the next GFC tsunami rolls in and drown you lot of idiotic witless monkeys. WAKE UP TO THE REALITIES NOW THAT YOU DON’T CREATE WEALTH AND SUSTAINABLE PROSPERITY SIMPLY BY SELLING YOUR HOUSE TO THE NEXT MORE STUPID KIND.

    If the contrary is true, which developers will make you rich instead of themselves? STUPID MONKEYS!

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