We cannot be a successful financial hub with a moribund stock exchange

I was surprised to learn that the trading volume of Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE) is 16 times of the volume in the Singapore Exchange (SGX).

We know that Hong Kong has a bigger population than Singapore and benefits from its closeness to China, but I thought that a difference of 4 times would be justified but not 16 times.

The HKSE is clearly doing very well. By contrast, the SGX is doing badly. The decline of SGX has been happening for a few years already.

Many friends have told me that they gave up their occupation as a remisier in SGX. The trading volume is low. They cannot cover their operating cost, let alone earn a small income to live on.

What happened to SGX?

I organized a small discussion in my Facebook page last year and received many useful feedback.

The key factors were:

a) There were a few cases of manipulated trading of small penny stocks and China shares that caused losses by small investors. The investors blamed SGX for their poor regulation.

b) The removal of the share price display in teletext discouraged many older investors from trading in SGX. These investors were not technologically savvy and found it difficult to get the prices from the Internet.

c) Some elderly investors gave up trading in stocks after MAS introduced the financial literacy test. They do not feel confident of passing the test. It could be a language issue.

The low trading volume in SGX had a spiral effect. Other investors started to move out of SGX to trade in HKSE and other exchanges. I know of many people in Singapore who have moved to trade in HKSE.

The Internet makes it easy for investors to trade in other exchanges.

I suspect that 10% to 20% of the trading volume in HKSE are from Singapore based investors. These trading volume could have come to SGX to increase its volume by 4 times and give a better balance between the 2 exchanges.

What can be done to improve volumes in SGX?

I suggest the following steps:

a) For the MAS and SGX to be more active in protecting small investors from malpractices by listed companies. A more active regulator will build trust among the small investors.

b) For SGX to introduce a way of displaying the prices of the listed shares in the Internet that can be accessed by mobile phones and in the same format as teletext.

c) Remove the financial literacy test. Investors know the risks that they are taking. The test is not necessary and is a hindrance.

The people in charge have to take steps to improve the trading volume of SGX. We cannot be a financial hub with a moribund exchange.

 

Tan Kin Lian

 

 

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19 Responses to “We cannot be a successful financial hub with a moribund stock exchange”

  • 1 MDB 'Exposed' Us!:

    Better lie low and don’t be too boastful!

    Some of the Banks in Singapore were involved in ‘money laudering’ according to many international reports!

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  • oxygen:

    @ TKL, JUST TAKE A LOOK AT THE LISTINGS OF MINING STOCKS on the HKSE and compare it to SGX (only on catalist gold stock after Blumont, Asiaison and LionGold disappeared), you must know how backward we are missing out on a huge key global raw material sector investment opportunity. Imagine HKSE can even compete with Sydney when HK has no mining entity and Down Under has all the mines in production. HKSE did very well outside the London time-zone where Toronto is the only other mining listing jurisdictions.

    We lack expertise in mining stocks and its regulation. Remember Jade Technology great foray into coal-mining opportunity in Indonesia and a Russian geologist supplied an ore estimation quantification outside JORC code standards? Even the banker got duped. HK is vibrant because their culture is far more vibrant and horizon-seeking. LEE-jiapore is rule following and clueless about how rules works or don’t work. We can’t compete with HK.

    I also suspected that real reason why SGX attempted a FAILED TAKEOVER a few years ago of ASX is because it wants to broaden its product base of diversity of listings. Wayne Swan, then Australia’s Federal Treasurer SMARTLY BLOCKED THE DEAL offer as “no brainer” unwelcomed bid. SGX has no real depth and breadth of market offering since its economy is nearly naked of a strong domestic sector – so nothing to offer to Australian investors whilst Singapore investors would have easy access to investing in Australian mining shares (and Down Under does all the hard dirty work of corporate regulation of such listing).

    So until SGX attract quality foreign listing (and domestic economy can’t generate such entities), it will remain moribund of regional relevance of a backwater exchange which no serious money will be investing in.

    Singapore does have a significant role in fund management with money from foreign sources but very little of that flowed into existing listed mining stocks other than a handful of blue-chip (some say dying grandather and grandmother) stocks.

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  • HarderTruths:

    $GX is a manipulated stock market with undervalued stocks propped up by gahmen.

    Since gahmen manipulates everything in the local market how can there be a proper price discovery mechanism for stocks? Where are the private players? No one. Gahmen owns everything and sets the bar for everything (ownself manipulates ownself)

    Stock markets run on underlying confidence of the currency and the transparent open market operation of stocks. Is anyone surprised why $GX is doing so badly?

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    $GX is a joke! It is an indictment of PAP’s micromanagement of the S’pore Economy for over 50 years. S’pore under the PAP began using State Capitalism (with GLCs/SWFs) & relying on Export-oriented economic model (using MNCs) to grow. But the Export-oriented economic model by the 1990s were hijacked by China [who also benefitted from Suzhou SIP Experiment copied EDB/JTC formula] & they proceeded to steal not only our breakfast but lunch & dinner including the 2 tea-breaks in-between. S’pore hollowed out between 1990 to 2005 as MNCs relocated to China en-massed & our PMET class simply collapsed around 2000s.
    Long story short, S’pore GDP-focus (after 2004 & PM LHL ascension) became an obsession because the GDP growth metrics was “a means to an end”. THERE WAS NO OTHER WAY TO GROW THE S’PORE ECONOMY! The GDP growth figure was used twofold;
    1. Attract clueless migrants into S’pore (Population Growth polices) & creating a Self-fulfilling prophecy where GDP growth & population influx becomes intertwined. p.s. the local/PR segment were already tapped out; &
    2. Attract Billionaires & wealth capital into S’pore using Monaco’s own playbook of casino, F1 circus, seaside developments with yacht berths – This was reflected by the high External Debt figure of US$1.76 trillion by 2016.
    Of course, the Ministers’ KPI in turn were triggered by GDP growth metrics.
    The present-day PAP regime had to rely on external investments [& now using borrowings to invest] to churn out additional income, But their SWFs had gone through S’pore’s ACCUMULATED CAPITAL & now borrowing heavily from capital markets to invests for the sake of Investing. But like a gambling addict without self-control nor propensity for winning – they’re pissing into the treacherous markets without sense of fiduciary commitments nor showed any responsibility to capital providers (CPF). The desperation for monies are showing in the current situation.
    The “Who doesn’t want to collect more money? Philosophy” re: govt revenue collection measures of the PAP results in excessive hoarding of liquidity by the govt to channel into SWF’s investments.
    But there were trade-offs for PAP’s excessive hoarding of capital & liquidity. That is why S’pore SME to this day remained small unable to scaled up to large-sized status – the Domestic Economy always stunted from Malnutrition (starved of capital & liquidity) from ever expanding.
    And SGX total capitalization had halved within a decade since the last market peak in 2008. The number of corporate listings & IPOs had dwindled to a trickle indicating a lack of business enterprise & entrepreneurship).
    - Cont’d -

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    - Cont’d -
    And even PAP’s State Capitalism were failing. GLCs are facing technological disruptions & business discontinuities. We have seen the divestment of long failing NOL, privatization of breakdown-prone SMRT, the selling of heavily indebted HYFLUX to foreigners. SGX don’t even have any FAANG type stocks [FaceBook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix & Google] to call their own. And what had transpired inside SGX were stuffed full of Cash-flow type Asset Vehicles (REITs & Trusts) replacing real shares ie. public equity in bona-fide Large scale businesses. They are not growing businesses but asset divestment vehicles with a cash-flow component to attract investors. You are not buying into a share of a growing business but simply sharing in the cash-flow component realized by the asset’s “Brick ‘N Mortar” earnings eg. Rents.
    In truth, any Financial Professional will tell you that most REITs & Trust Vehicles were simply Perpetual Bonds [in like] but unlike Bonds, they carry many hidden risks. Most of these Asset Vehicles were injected by their Fund Sponsor with overvalued assets with associated debts into the Fund. It is a way for established businesses to lighten up their Balance Sheet, reduce borrowings & monetized their [illiquid] fixed assets for a fat profit. The risk is undertaken by the REITs & Trust unitholders who then have the following risks:
    * assume the liability to foot out monies during a cash call (Rights issue);
    * suffer any diminution of DPU (lower dividend payout) per quarter unlike Perpetual Bond holders who have a right to fixed payments.
    The decline in SGX trading revenue is simply because most buyers of REITs & Trust Vehicles don’t churn their portfolio – they keep it within their portfolio to continue receiving their DPU (quarterly dividends) like clockwork.
    The joke is that SGX had morphed into a [Perp] Bond dominated Market without people [& investors] even realizing it. What shares? Ha-ha-ha-ha!

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  • Bobo:

    Singaporeans knew that all biz and tradings are under tight control of one mighty ruling party. You can run, but you cannot hide whereas they can.

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  • Moribund existentialism:

    Now is Tan Kin Lian supra-mediocre or a lesser mortal?

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  • LIONS:

    Sgs no more money to *lose* to MAFIA INSIDER TRADERS like company bosses n stock-brokers???
    So,SGX No Business.

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  • Aziz Kassim:

    My remesier with degree helping his brother in cleaning cars. Better money to be make than being as dealer

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  • Selfish Sinkie Syndrome:

    You remember the NDP song about “there was a time, when people thought Spore cannot make it….but we did….but we did…”?

    Now, the lyrics should be changed to “…there was a time, when people thought Spore cannot make it…. but indeed…but indeed…” Ha!

    Almost everything about Sinkingpore under the Pee and Poop ledarship, now really CANNOT MAKE IT.
    What a shame.

    No need to talk about financial hub, IT hub, shipping hub, medical hub, all the hubs are all nonsense hubbub by the Pee and Poop party.

    Just a quick elucidation will tell you:
    - financial hub – Failure with their digital Bitcoin ventures, no progress with their FinTech sandbox since 3 years back.

    - IT hub – SngHealth and other depts. got hacked and they got no solutions except to tell you not to worry….until the next hack.

    - Shipping hub, gone case. Shanghai TEUs shipping tonnage has already exceeded us a few years back. Many other upcoming ports will be eating the same lunch.

    - Medical hub – ok for low end procedures, but high-end medical expertise in Cancer treatments are in USA, brain surgery expertise are in Taiwan, reproductive scientist are best in India & USA, eye surgery is best in Japan, plastic surgeons are best in South Korea etc. Here in Sinkingpore, medical field here got no outstanding breakthroughs, only good for standard procedures like straitening your teeth or some minor day care services.

    So, you tell me which “hub” of the Pee and Poop has succeeded, or all of their phub proposals all CANNOT MAKE IT??

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    It is a bit of a joke that so much financial and human resources are put into this industry, although this makes sense given how much money is to be made. What the financial sector (SGX) presently does is no longer “capitalism.” It has morphed into an industry based on Trading and manipulation for the purpose of generating “money”, but not real, tangible wealth. “Trading” activities… all of them from Derivatives to the buying and selling of stock solely for making profits. It is really now down to just playing with money, but of course financial innovation creates tangible benefits to the economy. It provides liquidity to the market, dilutes risk and creates funds for investments in new technology.

    There is no way to reform SGX as a shaft takes place. It is no longer the center of finance. That moved to HKSE. It is only time before another shaft takes place. Perhaps that will be in China where things are still produced. Capital goes with production and not with bigger houses or estates. With diminished hope of restoring the manufacturing base here to create true wealth, we will revisit these scenarios for some time to come, since we are actually getting poorer, relative to other nations with growing industrial bases.

    Virtually all the growth of our financial industry over the past 10 years was fueled by conversion of equity to debt. Now we are what we can borrow, not what we own. The truth is SGX is going the same way as the UK stock markets. The competition is beginning to match us. The other thing we have left is capital created in the past and that is slowly ending up in foreign countries where the return is better. The last thing anyone thinks about on SGX is about helping the economy and the country.

    My guess is that this is likely to return again soon – in fact evidence suggests that the return of highly leveraged transactions is just around the corner as the market searches for ways to increase the current returns and get capital into the marketplace. This goes up and down the chain from top management to the lowest associate and every firm is exactly the same.
    It is all about making money any way you can regardless of the larger impacts.

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  • LIONS:

    THATS WHY TAN MIN LIANG SMART.

    he listed elsewhere???

    our stock market is OVER-MANIPULATED over the years and small investors have been screwed,so much for SIAS??? … GO CHECK WHO ARE ON THE BOD???

    ANYWAY,i think SGX thrived becos sgs got more money then,20 years back when they were gainfully employed.
    now,the govt suck all their money,they cant even afford to own HDBs???

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  • Selfish Sinkie Syndrome:

    Rabble-rouser:
    $GX is a joke! … S’pore under the PAP began using State Capitalism (with GLCs/SWFs) & relying on Export-oriented economic model (using MNCs) to grow. But the Export-oriented economic model by the 1990s were hijacked by China [who also benefitted from Suzhou SIP Experiment copied EDB/JTC formula] & they proceeded to steal not only our breakfast but lunch & dinner including the 2 tea-breaks in-between…

    Rabble-rouser, excellent comments which sums up the sorry state of the current economy under the Pay And Pay mismanagement.

    I just want to add that actually the State Capitalism & export-orientation WAS a workable model during the initial phase of industrialization and trending globalization during the early 60s, 70s and even 80s.

    For a recently independent country on the cusps of a modernization drive, the general approach WAS correct, in trying to encourage foreign multinationals to invest here, build plants and create jobs for mostly mass-manufacturing and supporting industries.

    With little in the way of resources, it made sense for setting up GLCs and/or consolidating govt./ national resources to initiate the industrialization push forwards. During those days, many local SMEs are not far above sophistication from your local convenience shops operating out of old shophouses, so they have little in terms of size, skills nor capital to help the nation quickly move up the value chain.

    GLC conglomerates are also common in Japan after WW2 (i.e. Keiretsu companies led by govt. initiative such as the giant Mitsubishi), in South Korea (i.e. Chaebols that have now become Samsung, Hyundai etc.).
    In Taiwan too, many of their utility companies are also started by govt. using public money, but which later became privatised.
    In other continents too, this economic model to kickstart development is being applied in Africa and other countries based on the Asian experience.

    You also rightly mentioned, this was copied almost wholesale by China after Deng Xiaping opened up China. No thanks also to the overly ambitious and “itchy-backside” LKY who was the one who actually unwittingly Awakened the Sleeping Dragon that is China….but thats another story.

    This was and is the fastest way to building up your infrastructure, integrating into the supply chain and hitching yourself a ride onto the global economy.
    Hence, our rapid rise to become one of the wealthiest nations per capita within a single generation.

    Now, I emphasise again that this economic model back then WAS correct, BUT the same model now is unworkable.

    …cont’d

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  • Selfish Sinkie Syndrome:

    cont’d…

    I can write a book on why GLCs model and export-orientation is now unworkable for mainly 3 reasons, but I will summarize as best I can here:

    1) First is the famous economics of diminishing returns.
    As you already highlighted, as more and more countries ride up the same elevator into the same global markets, naturally, the early bird gets the worm while the rest of the slower ones will get less of the share of wealth and advantages.

    Back then, I remember the oft-quoted “4 Asian Tiger” economies, but today there are many more newly industrializing countries in Eastern Europe, in Africa and Latin America. Today, China and India could potentially soak up all the hardware and software manufacturing for the whole world using the same economic models.

    We have only one planet, so as more countries industrialize and “go global”, it only means markets become increasingly competitive. Thus, if everyone does export, who is going to import? That is why its inevitable to get more trade deficits and imbalances as more countries join the global trade game.
    Some countries will have natural advantages (especially in market size) to eventually dominate and destroy all the rest of the smaller economies.

    2) Secondly, the advent of the Internet, computerisation and global logistics have disrupted whole swathes of so-called economoic “middle-men”. Singapore is one such economic middle-man and we had a role to play.
    Today, there is less need for economic “middle-man” from hardcore manufacturing to even financial services.
    Using the same old economic models that had worked back before the commercialization of the Internet, is clearly a hopeless case. However, we all know that this is exactly what the Pay And Pay fools are sticking to simply because they have no better idea and are at a lost at what to do.

    Thus, they stick to what is most comfortable and what worked in the PAST, which is more training courses, more shopping malls, more airports and infra, more people, more HDBs etc….more of the SAME until everything breaks down fro a tiny island. Having 50 years of blind faith worshiping a deity called KY also does not help in developing creativity nor lateral thinking out of their literal boxes.

    The leedership is old, tired and complacent, while the people (specifically the 69.9%) are also equally dulled and lost; and so the status quo seems safest when in reality it is the most dangerous time for Sinkingpore.

    cont’d….

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  • Selfish Sinkie Syndrome:

    cont’d…

    3) Thirdly, all non-core GLCs (i.e. non basic transport, non basic utilities) need to be weaned off govt. largesse and become privatized with share ownership re-distributed back to the citizenry. The problem here is that the incumbent govt. has enjoyed so much popular majority support for so long, that they forgot their role as “Enablers” rather than as mere “profit-maximizers”.

    All companies are profit-maximization entities, but GLCs are meant to be more than that. They are morally obliged to “give back” to the society that funded their journey, and NOT as a private vehicle to enrich the political leadership who happen to be in control at that moment in time (although, sadly that is whats happening in Singapore and many other countries).

    A GLC is taking tax-payers money to grow, at least initially. So, GLCs should be mandated by law to re-distribute their shares back to the citizenry who had funded her from birth.
    Instead of dishing out one-time “GST vouchers” or “CPF top-ups”, wouldn’t it make more sense to give out ordinary shares of such GLCs to the citizens?

    In that way, the GLC answers to the citizens, and is also able to share the wealth with the people who had rightly funded them in the first place.
    A share of the company means rights to future dividends and also gives each citizen a proper stake in each GLC which impacts his/her country.

    I admit this is NOT an easy transition, especially where huge money is involved, but I’d say it is a necessary evolution.
    Otherwise, you will see all the same problems with South Korean Chaebols disenfranchising local workers or other local companies or Japanese Keiretsu companies becoming moribund and heavily-indebted companies over time.

    We must remember that GLCs are a TEMPORARY measure to kickstart a budding economy, and NOT a healthy long-term persistent feature. Why is that so?
    The reasons is the same as why capitalistic economies should not have huge Monopolies or Oligopolies because they tend to stifle progress and eventually, they gobble up all resources, become wholly inefficient and they will often abuse their positions of power in all sorts of devious ways.

    For Pay And Pay, they had it so easy and so good for so long, that they began to compete against their own SMEs, so much so that they started to destroy all internal capabilities and all local “competition”.

    Hence, you see gradual “hollowing-out” of our economy, with SMEs squeezed out by foreign MNCs and then also competing with local GLCs.
    Without local expertise being nurtured or a local vibrant SME ecosystem (which they realize now is exactly similar to the “start-up” innovative culture of Silicon Valley), everybody loses.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    Globalization doesn’t have to mean economic inequality and trade deals should be structured not just to maximize growth but must make sure that the benefit is equally shared in the society. The traditional conservative answer of bringing our economic models back down to its least common denominators won’t work. This adherence to extreme orthodoxy, for example, the all-powerful invisible hand of capitalism, is what lead us to today’s high inequality.

    It seems to me that we’ve reached a ‘tipping point’ at which human productivity is becoming increasingly less of a factor than it has been in the past. This is also compounded by the fact that ‘past’ economic models thinned and change from a ‘practical, human-hands-on economic model to a more ‘virtual, robot-assisted’ economic model. China and other countries appear to understand this. Major industrial countries with educational systems focused on the ‘new skills required’ and universal flexibility provide their citizens with a better foundation to compete in the new global order.

    Global corporations with transnational ambitions and no allegiance to anything but making a buck shouldn’t be running the show. Some of these companies have budgets bigger than third world countries. Conveniently, they get their raw resources from Africa (without any environmental protection), their labor from Asia (without any worker protection), and their hoard of money in some bank on an islet in the middle of the ocean (beyond the reach of the taxman).

    Fixing the domestic issues of global trade, and globalism’s influences, needs precision on our parts. This is due to the convergence of the “information age”, with the age of instant communications and rapid transportation. Our corporate cultures have not adapted quickly enough to the global world order that demands new and different skills among workers, allocation of capital to ‘new’ and emerging industries and total economic and political integration with the rest of the world.

    We are deluding ourselves that our quality of life is better than in many other countries. The ‘creative construction’ of human civilization is afoot, and we’ll be needing some leadership that can understand and deal with the underlying abstractions that are driving it.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Selfish Sinkie Syndrome:
    Two recent incidents were deeply disturbing. Both point to something serious brewing with the PAP govt & their finances.
    One, deeply indebted Hyflux’s 60% shareholding stake were sold off to Indonesian interests to starve off [Maybank] bank’s action on Hyflux cashflow problems. Apparently, there’s no GLC left within the Temasek stable with enough liquidity to be a “White Knight” to save Hyflux tells a huge story. So in the process, Electricity power generation & water desalination, two important Strategic areas & essential services were in the hand of foreign shareholders. In 2008, S’pore 3 largest power generating plants were sold off in a hurry to a Chinese State owned company, a Japan-Euro JV & a M’sian company YTL. For a so-called “Wealthy” country to have it’s strategic assets owned by foreign interest is an eye-opener. It points to something being not right!
    Two, the imposition of Social Enterprise Model on hawker trades. KF Seetoh blew the covers off the Social Enterprise with his expose of a litany of costs aimed at hawkers ie. to siphon off their “Blood, Sweat & Tears”. For years, the PAP were “red-eyed” at the amount of monies that the top hawkers were making & not paying tax. Indeed, the hawker trades are the last bastion of cash-only business in S’pore which is difficult to tax regulate & control. In addition, the additional 2% GST will add to more hardship on the ground for hawkers who are competing in a highly competitive area. When the “Hard-up” PAP govt focuses on an cottage industry that is already highly competitive with razor thin profits, high rents & expensive cooking gas rates [when global gas prices are at a historical low]. Something is not right!

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  • Selfish Sinkie Syndrome:

    @Rabble-rouser, yes, many things are brewing within Pay And Pay, coupled with many external trends are converging to negatively impact Sinkingpore economy.

    We could have made several course-corrections in many of our economic, educational and political systems, but alas, KY lived too long with his grip becoming too concreatized for any real change to leapfrog into the next level. Had Spore built upon on her great foundations and shifted gears starting from the 90s, we could be really a top-tier model city, instead of being increasingly sidelined by Greater China, India and many other countries.

    Pay And Pay really squandered almost 20 years of acquired social advantages, political goodwill and economic strengths, with their very piss poor planning policies.

    I happen to think we reached an apex way back in the late 1980s.
    Back then, many things were going right when the social compact was intact, the old guard political leadership was clear-headed and less greed-driven, the economic foundation was set straight and strong.

    Spore could have scaled greater heights with such a solid foundation and we could have even become a real Model city for the world, in terms of social equity, social and religious harmony, economic performance and practically everything in between.

    In short, we went from everything going right, to everythign going Wrong almost overnight and the Pay And Pay leadership was sleeping at the wheel while external global trends overtook us, and internal problems become increasingly bigger as LEEgime became increasingly self-absorbed in their ivory tower with outmoded thinking.

    I have a bad feeling the next generation of Sinkies will not even know what hit them until late.

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  • oxygen:

    BRILLIANT WRITINGS FROM @ Selfish Sinkie Syndrome and @ Rabble-rouser in this thread.

    Thanks for sharing.

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