With the price difference between older and younger HDB flats decreasing rapidly by as much as 40% now – can these owners wait 20 years for VERS?

I refer to the article “Commentary: Mind the varied impact of HDB schemes on different groups of home owners” (Channel NewsAsia, Sep 22).

It states that “The impact of expiring leases can be expected to hit first- and second-generation satellite towns first and foremost, including Bukit Merah, Queenstown, Geylang and Toa Payoh, which have a large number of units with less than 50 years of lease remaining.

Interestingly, the impact of the expiring leases was a lesser worry in the past. In Toa Payoh, prices of HDB flats with expiring leases moved in tandem with the rest of the market.

The differences in prices of HDB flats between those with leases of less than 60 years remaining, and those with more than 60 years left, only emerged in 2015.

Average prices of HDB flats (S$ per sq ft floor area) with remaining lease tenure of less than 60 years and more than 60 years in Toa Payoh. (Graphic: Author provided. Source: Data.gov, HDB. Prices are in S$.)”You can see from the above chart that the price difference between more than and less than 60 years’ lease left 5-room flats in Toa Payoh is about 40 per cent ($420,000 (approximate) divided $680,000 (approximate)).

As to “It is also possible that it reflected lagged effects from concerns when then National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan broached the topic in 2013 and 2014.

Since then, HDB flats with more than 60-year leases in Toa Payoh started appreciating, while prices of older flats continued to descend.

OLDER FLATS DEPRECIATING IN VALUE

When a Facebook post in March 2017 by the Minister of National Development Lawrence Wong expounded that not all aged flats will undergo SERS, more prospective buyers began avoiding older flats” – it is quite obvious that the recent rapidly declining prices of older HDB flats may be due to the sudden turnaround in the rhetoric from ‘HDB asset enhancement’ to ‘zero value at the end of the 99 years lease’.

With regard to “For the Voluntary Early Redevelopment Scheme (VERS), besides deciding on the level of home owners’ consensus and the corresponding compensation package, the scheme should bear in mind that some home owners may also be more affected than others, in particular those who may have to pay sellers’ stamp duties and a resale levy if VERS occurs shortly after they purchase an impacted home.

Should these home owners be further compensated if VERS pays out less than market value for these homes? If they make up a significant number, how else would the Government intervene to prevent these sellers from voting “no” and holding the other residents hostage?

As some of such HDB home owners belong to the low- or lower end of the middle-income group, having to fork out an extra sum offhand may also impose financial difficulties on them.

Additionally, home owners who are retired and do not have much capital may have difficulty getting a new flat of similar size to their current home, due to financing regulations” – how can HDB owners be expected to wait another 20 years for VERS, whilst their flat values may be literally dropping like a rock every year?

So, instead of relying on ad-hoc price data from private sector property experts, in articles like the subject article – the Government should start to provide regular data on the price gap between older and newer HDB flat types in the different housing estates.

After all, isn’t this arguably, in the public interest, and in line with the online falsehoods’ committee’s recommendation that the Government should give the reasons for decisions not to disclose information to the public?

 

Leong Sze Hian

 

 

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28 Responses to “With the price difference between older and younger HDB flats decreasing rapidly by as much as 40% now – can these owners wait 20 years for VERS?”

  • RDB:

    Politically it is not to pap’s favour to say anything. As they are Strung up by their pwn policies since 1959 under lkyism statutes and laws.

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  • Bapak:

    Can the bank loan me $10 million, I’ll give my answer 20 years later how I’ll return them. Can?

    By then, either they close shop first or I run road first.

    Do you expect PAP to be around 20 years later? All these PAPigs will be gone by then. New G will tell you we never promise you? You go chase after Pinky. And he’s nowhere to be found.

    Those who buy their story must be dumbass stupid.

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  • opposition dude:

    We only have around 10 years to wait for HIP2 for those flats built in the 1960s to be the first batch to undergo it. So this means that for the years leading up to HIP2 the flats’ values will continue dropping since I very much doubt that there would be a big pool of buyers for them as the flats get older. How much these flats will be by 60 before HIP2 remains to be seen.

    But even after HIP2 is completed how much will their values rise by? After all HIP2 is merely making the flats and the surroundings look prettier and that’s about it, it does not lengthen the lease by which time there would only be 39 years left.

    And what about if the flat owners pass on when the flat is between 70 and 80 years old? Who is going to buy it over since it’s a depreciating asset? Will the government just pay whatever the market rate is at that point and divide the money between the deceased’s children?

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  • So,did they lie to us?:

    https://youtu.be/vs1o2eYR8uU

    Straight from the horses mouths.
    Did they all wilfully treat us like fools or…??

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  • Tremendous:

    They want people to listen to them but look at the fake news they came up with. Many of them were in the cabinet when the asset enhancements were trumpeted over and over again. That included LHL and the mainstream media. Now he turns around and say something else. How to believe in the next thing he says ?

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  • pay more means smarter?:

    GE is soon, in 2019.

    pap thinks ang mo raffles is going to help pap GE2019, just as evil departed lky helped pap GE2015.

    with all prices already raised and in the pocket, pap can start to give S$200 to each citizen to buy loyalty votes. because of deep resentment since GE2015, pundits say an additional one time S$500 per citizen is in the offing.

    most WP voters say they accept the S$700 (S$200 + S$500) and will still vote WP. that is good news. even the old uncle nothing to do everyday and the old aunty cleaning the hawker centre toilet begin to say the same.

    if everyday everyone start to remind each other in the market, in the coffee shop, in whichever place, pap is rotten, soon, pap is voted out. self fulfilling prophecy, so the pundits say.

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  • Who want buy?:

    Which party want to buy my vote at $5000? Divide 5 years, $1000 per year. Nothing is free in this world. If not election time should I stay at home? Voting slip instead of paper, can use RFID tag? More fool proof? Smart nation?

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  • KNN:

    Both HIP2 and VERS are targeted at flats around 70+ yrs old.

    If residents select HIP2, then they won’t get VERS. And vice versa.

    Same as HIP1 — those old flats just got HIP1 won’t get SERS (at least not for next 20-25 yrs). Hint for those looking to buy potential SERS flat.

    Both SERS & VERS compensation is based on “market valuation”. For 40 yr old flat in good location the valuation, and thus compensation, can still be OK. But for 70 yr old flat most likely the compensation will be low — certainly won’t be enough to buy a new same size replacement flat.

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  • Policy failure:

    The whole HDB Asset Appreciation scheme is a policy failure.
    It will not help many retirees to retire comfortably.
    Only right that the Government do the right thing and make sure the value of their Flat is not zero at the end of the lease.At least return them the land costs value..maybe half of what they paid for the flat.

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  • Dr. Chan:

    @Policy Failure
    Fat hope PAP will return anything or even a cent.
    To them this is not a policy failure. Why? Because they are filfhy rich and the rest of the people are screwed – PAP love to screw and people love to get screwed.
    This is total success for them.

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  • Unequal Singapore:

    The laws and rules must be fair, if private property can be enbloc, so can old HDB flats.
    Why did PAP give generous grants and subsidies to people buying old flats near to their parents, etc?
    This will not only support prices but push up for old resale flats … more immigrants come here and converted to PRs to buy resale flats … the ponzi continues.
    A PR family (couple, son, and parents from overseas) renting a 4 room flat in Marine Parade for $30,000, decided to buy over the flat for $500,000 some years back. He made the “right” decision as the rental yield then was 6%. Recently, he sold the 4 room flat at $100,000 profit to buy a nearby 5 room flat.
    Singaporeans, like China and India people have a penchant for property, believing that prices will always go up.
    Yes, Singapore is land scarce, with the huge influx of foreigners to grow the economy, prices will go up … but a caveat, if you buy a resale flat, its value will become zero once the lease expires.
    In the short term, prices would go up, but when you retire or are forced to retire early and want to monetize your flat, you realize the price has dropped vis-a-vis the new flats and newer resale flats that PAP and the mainstream media love to report about asset enhancement. You reverse mortgage but the price PAP value your flat is so little based on the remaining lease, not the market price then.
    All of us are at the mercy of PAP.
    For majority of us, a flat cannot support us financially when we retire, whether we have a 5 room or 2 room flats.
    During our working years, we do not earn enough (with cheaper foreign talents and workers coming here displace us, ok, some of them will become Singaporeans or “us”), count ourselves lucky if we are not retrenched and have to go for training and retraining to get lower paying jobs. A large portion of our pay cheque goes to CPF to pay for the mortgage, to pay medishield premium, etc.
    PAP will say standard of living has gone up, lifestyle has changed! Really? many retires including those involuntarily in their fifties, hole up in their flats, to “save” cost, their lifestyle has not become more lavish.
    Why are our medical fees and the mandatory medishield premium going up so much? Even with 80% subsidies (now the mainstream media is spreading propaganda), the cost eats into our saving, and cpf. Due to our change in lifestyle?
    Prices of new HDB flats rise because private property prices rise and GDP growth. Why are people wages not rising (maybe the pay of public servants do, pegged to GDP growth), why are more people retrenched (dont believe PAP statistics) and retiring involuntarily at a younger age? They have enough saving, and need some exercise, so collect cardboard to sell, walk around hawker centres to sell tissue paper, work as…

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  • Population explosion:

    If PAP rule continues, it will import more immigrants.
    But we have not enough land to build more, so we have to recycle our flats. Too bad, you buy subsidised flats, so the flat will have no value once the lease expires, if PAP need to redevelop your precincts, they decide the value, you the owners have no say.
    Private property owners will enbloc and build taller buildings.
    Even with less coe issued, less cars, multi-level roads, can we trust the public transport, given the experience we have with our existing MRT, more shorter operating hours every now and then for maintenance going to be more frequent, is not going to help. Singapore is going to be very congested, not just your flat, your neighbourhood, etc.
    In 2030, we will have 7 million people, not including tourists. In 2050, 10 million, in 2065, 15 million.
    The rich can always live elsewhere, invest here like properties to earn rental. Helicopters or dedicated transport can be their mode of transport.
    People can move to JB and Batam, and commute to Singapore to work. Maybe even KL, or Batu Pahat with the HSR which will be revived. It already happens now, Malaysians are coming here to work, not only in factories but as plumbers, painters, etc.
    So, we can be believe PAP, our PM, next PM that we will survive another 50 years, SG100? How about SG150? I will be dead by then, so will LHL, CCS, the only difference is that their descendants are living on their trust funds, maybe somewhere less congested.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Que será será – Whatever will be, will be! The future’s not ours to see. This song by Doris Day awakens S’poreans to the Helpless State that you’re in. You can’t do anything to reverse nor get any compensation from the PAP system. Move along & vote wisely the next round!
    In a sense, this HDB Lease Decay problem had been embedded within the system from day one. It had been taken for a political joyride by the Politicians (who don’t lived in HDB flats) using the Asset Enhancement Policy guise as vote-winners! After joyriding it for nearly 3 decades, they proceeded to ditch the vehicle (Asset Enhancement Policy) into the long-kang (re: by telling you that there’s lease decay)! But what can you do?
    The% “owners” in ageing HDB PUBLIC Housing estates are the biggest losers in this political mechanism but does anyone have the courage to file a class action suit against the PAP & HDB? I don’t think so. So why rant & rave? Don’t you have anything better to do?
    The price disparity between younger vs ageing HDB is also senseless. As ageing HDB flats lose value (due to lower or no demand) while relatively new HDB flat prices goes up due to higher demand. Don’t you think that this leads to high risk downside for buyers of relatively new HDB flats (higher loan quantum, higher mortgage payments, loan default risk, etc) vs the depressed values for ageing flat which can be had for a song?
    Any smart guy who can do his financial sums would cash in on his relatively new HDB flat for analysing flat & in the process, pockets a fair sum of money. And that is called Price Arbitraging! All HDB Flats are subjected to the same 99-year leasehold.
    Even the price disparity between Private Property & HDB Public Housing estates is absolutely ridiculous! About 3x to 4x of HDB flat value psf. In an estate where HDB flats coexists with Private Condominiums, the rental yields were about the same between a HDB 4-room flat & a 2-bedroom condo unit with facilities. But on a rental yield basis, the 4-roo. HDB rent returns yields >5% pa but the Private Condo yields a measely less than <2% pa rental yield (& not including mortgage payments & higher outgoings like maintenance fees, etc. The cash earning component doesn't quite add up for investing in private properties. And global interest rates are rising in the US.
    The downside risks for Private properties are even greater than HDB resale units. Private properties today aren't a path to wealth & riches. You would had bought almost 2-&-a half decade ago if you were to see any capital gains today but then you aren't able to buy any replacement private property with your gains either!

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Should read as “Any smart guy who can do his financial sums would cash in on his relatively new HDB flat for AN AGEING flat…”

    Rabble-rouser: Any smart guy who can do his financial sums would cash in on his relatively new HDB flat for analysing flat…

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  • another0:

    Interestingly, the impact of the expiring leases was a lesser worry in the past. In Toa Payoh, prices of HDB flats with expiring leases moved in tandem with the rest of the market.
    ==============================================================================
    Yep,you are right.

    and,after LAWRENCE WONG opened his BIG MOUTH,suddenly,prices of older HDBs,even in choice locations,started to fall?

    so,govt has to make amends.
    RENEW THE LEASES! FOC!
    AFTERALL,objectives of HDB is to ensure ALL SGS CAN OWN THEIR OWN HOME?

    WHAT HAPPENED LAST 10 LOONG YEAR$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$?

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  • HDB is Concrete Slums:

    HDB dwellers are a greedy lot. Deserve to be in this dilemma due to their greed and stupidity. Then is it fair to private owners? Why have Private and Public housing? Might as well become Communist state.

    Unequal Singapore: The laws and rules must be fair, if private property can be enbloc, so can old HDB flats.
    Why did PAP give generous grants and subsidies to people buying old flats near to their parents, etc?

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  • Too scholarly by half:

    Who are those going to purchase our public flats in this overheated pressure cooker? Our healthy educated young ones are refusing to have children – even just a single one in some cases…

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  • another0:

    Population explosion:
    November 15, 2018 at 9:56 am (Quote)
    If PAP rule continues, it will import more immigrants.
    ===========================================================================
    THIS IS CERTAIN N DISASTROUS!
    already,our public spaces are so DISORDERLY.
    Trying to MIX GOOD SGS with uncouth Fake Talents.armed with fake credentials or even hidden CRIMINAL RECORDS,is just plain stoopid and only a stoopidLEE daft would do so.

    look at how they implement PMD USAGE.
    NOT INFRASTRUCTURALLY READY BUT ANYHOW ALLOW PMDs to have SAME RIGHT OF WAY AS PEDESTRIANS ON ‘PEDESTRIAN WALKWAYS’???
    SERIOUS ACCIDENST HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED,EVEN FATAL?
    AND,GOVT N LTA DIAM-DIAM,NO DECENT COMPENSATION OR LEGAL RECOURSE?
    WHERE IS LAW SOC?
    ONLY ONE VICTORIOUS LAWYER WHO REPRESENTED A CULPRIT/OFFENDER dared to tell the PRESIDING JUDGE THAT IT IS BETTER TO ABOLISH PMDs ???!!!

    still,no one cares.
    and,MILK-IS-MILK,after getting promoted to MINISTER after she promoted PMD usage on PEDESTRIAN WALKWAYS,cant be botehred if someone got injured or die unless her own aged parents or grandchildren get injured or killed?!

    this is just a simple example.
    there are many serious examples like train breaking down,hospital bed crunch n many more !

    the GOVT couldnt care less becos everywhere the ministers go,the road is *cleared* for them?

    lee ah long,if you think you want SG to have latest ‘modernities’ why not REMOVE THE DRACONIC GRC,you are really hypocritical laggard!

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  • rukidding:

    Is evrything about these old and New flats prices really “OK” ???

    If someone tells you its “OK”….hmmm…I think,..that is “Fake”news !

    So,…for someone to “promote” as well as “champion” Anti Fake News…and “themselves giving” Fake news ….is really “Puzzling and contradicting”.

    Sure you “Trust” this fellow????

    If you still do?…you must have your HEAD and HEART check !

    FEAR must have gotten the best of you !!!

    Ask yourself this,….do you want this “devil” ( satan) to continue “bluffing” you ????

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  • Remember Only One Rule:

    Why wait for VeRs when you can kick out PAP right away and regain your HDB?

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  • Longan Lee Lim Peh:

    Ignorance is an excuse not to be blamed.
    Ignorance is also bliss.

    Peasants proved they never really understood DEPRECIATION although they could read out to you what is it’s definition like as if he understands.

    They are also the world’s most easily dominated . Simply threaten them and they will surrender out of self preservation.
    This cna be proven anywhere in the peasant land. Find one peasant and ask them to talk politics. His balls shrink before your very eyes.

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  • Dont be conned by PAP policy:

    PAP policy is to enrich themselves and the rich.
    PAP will “feed” the rest just enough food and shelter, in return we work for the elite, and the men serve NS, risk their lives, arms and legs, to protect the assets of the rich.
    The rich can build on their freehold land and sell condo units on 99-year lease to buyers. 99 years later, the land reverts to the land owner.
    Is this equitable, fair?
    Social mobility means you study hard, get a job, work hard, save hard, have a flat, get married, have children, retrain, get displaced, downgrade “lifestyle” use less phone data, dont use water heater, use less water (maybe drink from the tap, dont boil), dont use aircon, eat at home, if eat out buy $2.80 food at hawker centre.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Too scholarly by half

    EVEN THE BLIND STUPID NO-ECONOMICS-TRAINED PEASANTS can see through CLEARLY the DECEPTION of PAPpys Asset enhancement politics – it is a SCAM of transferring wealth from the poor to the rich. But 70% daft too stupid to even begin to discover they are stupid to impossibility refused to admit the heinous deception – greed ruled their lives in assuming that the deception is going to harm somebody else instead of themselves included as sacrificial lambs of PAPpy’s wealth extraction politics.

    Too scholarly by half: Who are those going to purchase our public flats in this overheated pressure cooker? Our healthy educated young ones are refusing to have children – even just a single one in some cases…

    PAPpypolitics knows very clear that the peasants lease only ONE HDB wasting liability with aging. They sold one lease, they are entrapped to buy another even more expensive PONZI SCAM. It is exactly like a stupid puppy chasing its own anus. But it is this stupid anus-chasing puppy ALONE which chase HDB prices higher and higher carrying on their shoulders more and more expensive (but decreasing value over time) shelter. That provide the base foundations support lifting private property prices higher BENEFITING ONLY MINI-STARS AND CRONY RICH owning multiple tradeable assets for higher and higher resale profits. To make it worst, peasants who sole their lease for profit FACED FURTHER (FICTITIOUS) WEALTH EXTRACTION via HDB resale levy – an illegal capital gain tax which the rich is EXCLUDED of this capital gain tax.

    SCHOLARLY ARISTOCRATS KNOWS THIS IS A ROTTEN SCAM BUT PUBLICLY PREACHED THE OPPOSITE IN MASS DECEPTION THE REALITY IS THE OPPOSITE OF PEASANTS’ WEALTH ACCUMULATION.

    The peasants carried the heavy burden load of PAPpypolitics deception, the sole beneficiaries are the ARISTOCRATS AND SELF-SELECTED CRONIES and their grasslooters IBs.

    Now the economic realities emerged from the burial plot of cruel concealment of HDB/Asset enhancement politics scam are deceptions, PAPpypolitics and PAPpynomics went into silent mode of SHTUM SHTUM SHTUM.

    The peasants trapped of this

    Longan Lee Lim Peh: Peasants proved they never really understood DEPRECIATION..most easily dominated . Simply threaten them and they will surrender out of self preservation..This dna be proven anywhere in the peasant land. Find one peasant and ask them to talk politics. His balls shrink before your very eyes.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Policy failure

    UNLESS THE PAPpys RETURNS THE LAND to peasants who paid for it BUT RECEIVED NO LEGAL TITLE OF OWNERSHIP to land, voters cannot and won’t be placated with any erection lolly this time.

    Policy failure: The whole HDB Asset Appreciation scheme is a policy failure.
    It will not help many retirees to retire comfortably.
    Only right that the Government do the right thing and make sure the value of their Flat is not zero at the end of the lease.At least return them the land costs value..maybe half of what they paid for the flat.

    TO ALLOW THIS SCAM TO SUSTAIN if like, in analogy, allowing a thief who broke in, entered your house, stole your cash, jewelry, raped your wife and daughters and you tell the burglar thank you for not hurting you (so in gratitude, you tell the burglar to keep the cash and jewelry he robbed from your family).

    IT IS WRONG AND WILL EMBODEN THE BURGLAR TO COME AGAIN TO DO WORST. What the peasant paid for – be that a car, land or property – belongs to that peasant and nobody else.

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  • Cant trust PAP:

    Very funny, Lawrence Wong said private property prices rose by 9% from mid 1997 to mid 1998, before PAP introduced the latest “cooling measures”.
    Didnt he and the Perm Sec in MND know that developers have been aggressively bidding government land in the last few years?
    There are about 10 plots of land for sale every year, yet there are at least 100 companies in property development and investment, not to mention more people are setting up companies to develop, buy and sell properties.
    Why did PAP not increase the land supply?
    If supply increases, prices will come down.
    The property companies and the rich hoard properties and sell only a small number of units to the public, those who want to upgrade from the 99-lease-up-zero-value HDB flats.
    All the cooling measures, Qualifying Certificate rules, stamp duties, ABSD duties, etc are but a farce, the rich can byass and avoid and they do that for years.
    When UOB Chairman Wee’s family bought a completed residential building for $400 million, how much stamp duties and other taxes did they pay?
    The rich are buying properties in blocks to live within their family, among friends, rich friends, local or overseas, I mean, besides for investment, helping one another to avoid paying duties and taxes.
    If CNA and SPH reporters are worth their salt, they could do an investigative journalism, dont just criticise other countries, but not ourselves. Maybe Singapore then would improve in ranking in press freedom ranking and capital cronyism ranking.

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  • Tan Soo Kheng:

    Please help to publish, all 100% real, 2nd cold storage=— all been covered up by MSM in mid 80′s

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  • nihon:

    hdb = zero

    jap 007 trait*r lied – ‘your hdb will always go up in value.’ useless woody lied ‘asset enhancement’ to suck more blood to enleech themselves.

    most sg were fooled.

    did you vote wisely?

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  • A New Start After 200 Years...:

    When one’s CPF is locked up, when one’s HDB flat is depreciating, when hawker food becomes more expensive thanks to Social Enterprise, what more can we take?

    Vote for Change is the best solution!

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