Why is PAP planning for T5 when our airspace is already restricted?

I have read in Channel NewsAsia that a total of 6 flights scheduled to land at Singapore Changi Airport on Thursday were diverted to land at other airports due to bad weather, airspace restrictions and air traffic congestion etc.

The PAP government is currently building a newer and bigger airport terminal 5 which is costing us much land and money and is expected to handle much more air traffic, both in terms of passenger and cargo loads and bigger aircraft when completed.

However, after reading that CNA news, I think our sense of ambition, euphoria and optimism must be dosed with very cold water and tampered with some harsh realities. Is the book-smart and super greedy PAP government biting off more than they can chew?

If our airspace is alearly STRETCHED with air-space restrictions and air-traffic congestions that resulted in those 6 inbound flights having to land between Paya Lebar airport and Senai airport in Johor, are we seriously being too greedy and asking for trouble by courting bad reputation for ourselves or even tempting air disasters to happen?

If given that the capacities at our current 4 operating terminals are clearly facing challenging air-space restrictions and air-traffic congestion that resulted in those 6 inbound flights having to land between Paya Lebar airport and Senai airport, are the PAP ministers seriously being too greedy, too irresponsible and asking for troubles by courting bad reputation for ourselves and even tempting air disasters to happen?

In time to come, if we cannot maximize the full capacity of terminal 5, the operations of terminal 5 will compound our problems big, big time. Singapore is a highly urbanised and a highly dense population city. Any air disaster above Singapore could potentially wipe off hundreds or even thousands of people in one go.

Official greed knows no bound.

 

Simon Lim

 

 

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38 Responses to “Why is PAP planning for T5 when our airspace is already restricted?”

  • N.Jungne:

    Aiyah most important is to increase Tarma-de assets. Next T6 and so on, knows no limit, how to stop?

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  • Bapak:

    I think that “air traffic congestion” was due to giving priority to various country’s leaders leaving SG after the meetings.

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  • RDB:

    Like some small size boys trying to act tough with big size ones until they get flow with heads bleeding end up in hospital intensive care. Then luckily recovered to learn a huge lesson.

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  • Selfish Sinkie Syndrome:

    Little island got big dreams to conquer the world of air network lah…thats why next time half the island will become an airport and the other half become shopping malls. Ha!
    Head so tiny, but still want to wear big big hat.

    No need to bother anymore.
    No one will bother until big accident happens, then they KPKB also no use.
    If the bad thing happens to other strangers, apathetic 70% Sinkies also don’t bother. Only care about their next holiday destination. Then if the accident happen to themselves or family, they cry like babies, then after that helpless cannot sue gahmen also, so they just keep quiet.

    Wait… in fact, I don’t think Sinkies will dare to KPKB.
    Just look at those cases of NS deaths. Their parents just snif snif and then say “bo bian lah”, no money to sue gahmen also wat….so just accept it that their children die for nothing.

    Selfish Sinkies will still praise their masters and vote for them lah.
    I’m just here to observe how it will all end.

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  • 70% pse vote wisely in next GE:

    Greed has no limit.
    One day, Indonesia and Malaysia will restrict planes in their airspace for whatever reasons, and our airport will be a big white elephant.
    We are short of land, PAP keeps importing planeloads of foreigners and tourists, many coming here to look for job or work illegally.
    Yet, PAP is not building enough HDB flats, people have to wait for years to get a BTO flat (PAP will say these people are choosy, really?).
    PAP is not selling enough land for private development in order to support land and private property prices. Property developers are collaborating and bidding agressively for the few plots of land the government sells every year, and sell their units gradually in phases in order to increase their prices at each phase.
    Analysts will over-estimate the cost of building to justify developers ever increasing selling prices.
    The government will keep quiet, it has to because HDB never wants to reveal its flat construction cost so as to justify its new flat prices and claim flats are subsidized.
    Remember PAP CEC member Tan Chuan Jin said a $900,000 new HDB flat some years ago is justifiable – because of the land cost, building cost and profit margin of the private developer that is building the flats for HDB.
    PAP policy of jacking up prices, subsidizing minimally the poor and destitute, be it housing, medical care, social welfare, impact adversely the middle class the most, and enrich the rich.
    Corporate and income tax are kept low to attract FTs and enrich the million dollar salary guys like PAP ministers, while GST is raised to fund government spending.

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  • PC Ong:

    QUOTE “Singapore is a highly urbanised and a highly dense population city. Any air disaster above Singapore could potentially wipe off hundreds or even thousands of people in one go.”UNQUOTE

    This is such a stupid narrative. You might as well say everybody should just stay home, don’t go out because what if we kena tsunami/hail storm/sandstorm etc..

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  • HarderTruths:

    It is about making GDP great again.

    Government deficit spending replaces real production – meaning more taxes, higher real inflation and increase in government and private debt that will kill the economy in the near future when people cannot pay their loans or live on their inflation-adjusted salaries.

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  • We're screwed !:

    I just dont know what theyre up to..
    But it makes ne nervous cuz the costs will be sucked from our oredy half drained blood sweat n tears bodies.
    For sure!
    They need more n more terminals to cater for the ever increasing millions of fakes and 3rd world trash they planning to cram in our little country.
    Ey care hevk what we think..we are dafts after all…70% keep voting them in to screw us !

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  • rukidding:

    Their “brains” only “thinking” of $$$$$ !!

    Their “Brains” only “interested” in “wanting to be No 1″ this and that for “beauty and pride”.

    They were “thinking” of “numbers in physical figures”…but they “forgotten” about “the space above” !!!!

    Everything still under Malaysia /Indon airspace from Pekan Nanas Air traffic Control lah!

    Pay them “Millions”…this is what you get,…”Total distraction from REAL WORK” !!!!

    “Addicted” to $$$$$ only !

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  • PAP.GUARANTEE.WIN.GE2019:

    rukidding:
    Their “brains” only “thinking” of $$$$$ !!


    “Addicted” to $$$$$ only !

    Hahaha…

    If opposition supporters never think money, then why kpkb about low pay.

    Typical mindset of whining opposition supporters.

    Look at yourselves first ok, you not addicted to money, then why so many of you here kpkb about low pay eh ?

    Hahahaha….go look yourselves in the mirror before you criticized our great leeder PM Lee and PAP.

    PAP.Guarantee.Win.GE2019

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  • LIONS:

    all these expenditures will prove to be naught in time,probably as soon as the next decade,wait and see.

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  • IB Ong:

    your stand-in while you go on holiday might need a little help here.

    It is not that we stay home because “what if” kena tsunami/hail storm/sandstorm etc.

    It is why increase that risk of “what if”.

    The author question why is it necessary to increase the risk of the possibility given that Singapore is so densely populated.

    Ref: “If our airspace is alearly STRETCHED with air-space restrictions and air-traffic congestions that resulted in those 6 inbound flights having to land between Paya Lebar airport and Senai airport in Johor, are we seriously being too greedy and asking for trouble by courting bad reputation for ourselves or even tempting air disasters to happen?”

    you are welcome

    PC Ong:
    QUOTE “Singapore is a highly urbanised and a highly dense population city. Any air disaster above Singapore could potentially wipe off hundreds or even thousands of people in one go.”UNQUOTE

    This is such a stupid narrative. You might as well say everybody should just stay home, don’t go out because what if we kena tsunami/hail storm/sandstorm etc..

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  • BullyBully:

    Construction has always been used to lift the economy
    when thing are bad. Can u imagine how bad things are
    tt they are going to such lengths?

    Anyway all these complaints about the PAP will turn out
    to be just whinings, come 2019, when the party will be
    voted into power with gusto to continue powering this
    country into the ground.

    Right now we’ve moved from sense to weird policies complete
    with nonsense reasons for these actions to be carried out.
    Too many believe life under the PAP is the only way to go.
    A helluva lot believe the opposition cant run the country.
    They certainly cant, since they’re not given the chance to
    do so. Or at least have an impact on how some are running it.
    No one’s considering whether the PAP can.

    Things are bad. Pass the chocolate plse….

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  • rukidding:

    Typical “twisted minds” of a “satan infested” person !!!

    “They” cannot hear nor understand what the other party is talking about .

    Not that “they” act blur,…but its because “their minds” ardy “poisoned and dirted” by satan.

    “They” cannot differentiate between “fairly paid” and “Obscenely paid” ?

    Good that my post have been “taken noticed”

    “Pay back” time is coming…where all those “twisted minds” WILL BE JUDGED before GOD !!!

    Beware !!!!….the “end” is near !

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  • reasonably mature market:

    aiyoh. most likely. nothing to build, find something to build lar, economic stimulus lar. a lot of new buildings have been built already before it gets old for the next cycle of tearing and rebuilding – so must find even more infrastructure / even more new buildings to build; and regular upgrades / maintenance (sometimes “wasteful”) to match 6.9m or 10m.

    T5 and maybe T6 … T999, then can upgrade T1, T2 and the cycle goes on and one. else, where to find gdp in a reasonably mature market.

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  • oxygen:

    @ BullyBully

    MATE, EXACTLY RIGHT AND BEAUTIFULLY SAID, AFTER 5 DECADES since independence, PAPpys still is dependent on CONSTRUCTION MANURES to fertilize the beautification of GDP statistics!

    They just simply look past and remains oblivious to global economic turbulence and its challenges in recent decades – pretending that these have no negative risks impact on our national survival.

    Take out the 0.75 million at least cheap foreign construction labor and casino, what is left of LEE-jiapore?? I haven’t discover ONE, JUST ONE DOMESTIC ECONOMIC PILLAR other than the eat-n-sh*t economy of foreign population recycling economics also nearing its doomed extinction failures.

    Yet they sing fiction of 1% truth that LEE-jiapore was a fishing village in their reign transformed into a first world metropolis (in reality debt-funded/GST-funded artificial beauties)

    COMPLETELY HOPELESS ECONOMIC MANAGERS!

    BullyBully: Construction has always been used to lift the economy
    when thing are bad. Can u imagine how bad things are
    tt they are going to such lengths?

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  • TL Tan:

    Actually, the economy is doing fine. I work in commodities trading. While construction and real estate in China is slowing, it is still positive growth. Copper price has remained largely the same at around 6,000/MT for the past 3-6 months as demand in China is still strong. The flow of LNG and petrochemicals into China is similarly strong. The financial markets currently worry about US interest rate increases and trade tariffs, but the fundamentals of the global economy, namely consumer demand and private investment, remain robust

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  • Why suffered in silence:

    PC Ong the die hard pay and pay party IB,you again.Public doing business in toilet also hit by plane crash,so hiding in HDB also not safe.You like to wait till disaster strike then act,just like your master,pathetic.

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  • SG Changi Ground staff Jr:

    What kinda of stupid article is this? Air Restriction is due to VIP leaving and nothing to do with supply/demand

    Air congestion is due to lack of runway, we have only 2 at the moment while HK and other country are using 3. T5 and 3rd runway are the project we are doing. There is no limit to the ‘air space’ its the que to land. More runway will solve that problem.

    T1-4 is just copping with demand now, thus T5 is for after 2024′s demand. We build T2 way head of the demand as well.

    Any air disaster above Singapore could potentially wipe off hundreds or even thousands of people in one go.
    this i dun even want to comment..hahahahahaahhaha

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  • Japan for SIngapore:

    ANA has been lobbying CAG for the last 2 years to increase flight to Singapore.
    But this was reject due to LACK OF AEROBRIDGE. airport operation are depending on gates and runway not the floor space in your Lobby!

    More flights mean cheaper ticket for Sinkie to go on holiday

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  • Right on Greed, Greed, Greed:

    It is a Singapore cliche since GCT succumbed to seat warm n aided in finalization of Le’nepotic regime that economic gain is 99.9 to top n 0.1 to bottom. This led to another cliche among the lower income group Singapore economic gain > double cost of living > exploding fissure wealth line > political mmillionairs overnightie conversion to political billionaires. In short announcement is heavenly to political billionaires n nightmare to patrons of dirty wet market food centres. Econ gain means high bonuses for political plps contrary to increasing cost n faster decreasing standard of living among daft Sinkies. The big n mighty political lps n plps lie in comfort on greed, more greed n more more greed while the daft sinkies lie on more pointed nails hammered in as political greed explodes mindlessly. Rationality erodes acceleraing with greed.

    Greed has no room for professional judgement, rationality n sensibility. Anyway the lineup for the next cycle of seat warming is heartening with berrachan stpudius sinking the gorilla den painfully nurtured by the le Nepotist I failed by his billions investment on stamp cells by greed fakes. Mahathir’s response to the recommendation of Harvard medigiant for his hear ailment that he trusted his own people more proved that he was right else he will miss his 92.

    Will daft Singaporeans be really that stupid to elect a man who has threaten them that he has no problem to import more foreigners esp to replace Singaporean pmets n extrapolating he should have no problem to import foreigners to replace his predecessor’s plps even mps with foreigners who could be his plps to help secure his nepotic regime? will daft Singaporeans be so stupid to elect some shit to look down on them eating at wet market food centres food not worth the 2.50-3.00$ charged? Will there be another gorilla with negative investment skill or donkey degenerated? Will they??? ????

    Singaporeans, if fellow Singaporeans aren’t that stupid as le nepotist thinks then the world wait to witness how the infilial left over by le nepotic regime buries it ss his blood fellow look sadly on at foreign shores n the other weeps in le broken structures.

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  • oxygen:

    @ TL Tan

    MATE, YOUR OBSERVATIONS BELOW DOES NOT gel with REALITIES. Are you too close to your screen live quote and lost bearing with historical price shifts over the last 6 month.

    I see all my mining shares taken a BIG CANING – be that base metals or gold. Surely that is telling of realities UNLESS YOU HAVE COMPELLING REASONS OR EVIDENCE that all my investment picks are DUDs ( Ooops, I hope not).

    Me thinks the negative performance in my portfolio is due to WEAKENED OR WEAKENING COMMODITIES PRICES including copper, zinc, nickel and of course the waterfall decline in crude oil price since end September.

    TL Tan: Actually, the economy is doing fine. I work in commodities trading. While construction and real estate in China is slowing, it is still positive growth. Copper price has remained largely the same at around 6,000/MT for the past 3-6 months as demand in China is still strong. The flow of LNG and petrochemicals into China is similarly strong. The financial markets currently worry about US interest rate increases and trade tariffs, but the fundamentals of the global economy, namely consumer demand and private investment, remain robust

    And I think my observations are objective of truth and realities prevailing. Please take a look at Kitco.com historical chart over the last 6 months on copper, nickel and zinc – THE PERCENTAGE FALLS ARE HUGE for a short interval of 6 months only – and this alone account for the dismal decline in my portfolio values of mining stocks.

    http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html

    Take a look at the historical 6-months for copper above. You can check nickel, & zinc.

    And for the records, three investment banks are negative of global economic outlook.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-stock-market-and-economy-are-set-to-skid-goldman-says-cash-will-be-king-2018-11-20

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-growth-will-slow-from-here-say-nomuras-economists-2018-11-13

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/jp-morgan-sees-a-slowdown-coming-with-economy-growing-at-less-than-2-percent-in-2019.html

    OECD is bearish of 2019 outlook too.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/11/21/business/economy-business/oecd-lowers-global-growth-forecast-2019/#.W_ZGLbdMS1s

    Oil is transportation of humans and goods, the speed of oil price fall despite political tensions, tells me the risks is STACKED HEAVILY ON THE DOWNSIDE.

    I am facing the WORST outcome conceivable – LIKE IT OR NOT.

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  • Oops !:

    > “Why is PAP planning for T5 when our airspace is already restricted?”
    -
    AristoCATs first reaction – “Ooops !”
    Some heads will roll for incomplete homework !!!
    -
    AristoCATs later reaction –
    When all they have is a hammer, every problem is a nail !!!
    -
    The “solution”??? “pay n pay”
    ERP in the Sky . . . . :(
    -

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  • gungho for suggesting:

    //This is such a stupid narrative. You might as well say everybody should just stay home, don’t go out because what if we kena tsunami/hail storm/sandstorm etc..//

    aiyoh. tsunami / hail storm / sandstorm are natural disasters lar – not “man-made lar generally” and if you do know (from reliable forecast) that it is going to strike beforehand, indeed don’t go out lar and stay at home lar – or if cannot stay home, run for your live lar.

    some people (position of influence / power) are just gungho for suggesting all sorts of risky ventures and transferring the risks to others while may still get rewarded highly for it lar.

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  • Technically Speaking:

    I would like to ensure proper governance and, for citizens, to challenge and ensure we get the best from our government.

    But articles like this make us look like complainers and not savvy. This is written by someone with no technical background on the subject matter.

    T5 will be accompanied with a runway upgrade which will ease the airspace congestion in a big way and allow the airports (incl the currrent terminals) to grow whilst waiting for T5 to be ready many years down the road.

    Lets be proffesional in our criticism so that we can keep the government in check and give credibility to any opposition to take over.

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  • Vincent Tan:

    2nd coldstorage To be continue later part 2

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  • oxygen:

    @ TL Tan,

    YOUR ENTHUSIASTIC OPTIMISM may be too premature.

    TL Tan: Actually, the economy is doing fine

    I have just stumbled on CNBC read which says our economy is already adversely hit.

    Singapore’s third-quarter economic growth comes in well below forecast

    Singapore’s economy grew 2.2 percent in the third quarter from the year earlier, slower than the advance estimate of 2.6 percent growth.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/22/singapore-economy-third-quarter-growth-below-forecast-on-trade-war.html

    And the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Trade & Industry has this cautionary warning forward.

    Loh Khum Yean, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Trade & Industry : The external demand outlook for the Singapore economy in 2019 is slightly weaker as compared to 2018. At the same time, risks in the global economy are tilted to the downside,

    MY SUSPICION IS THAT MITI already well aware of the downside 3rd GDP risks in June 2018 – IF IT IS COMPETENT in their roles – because commodities prices have fallen, something which I saw in the DECLINING valuation of my mining investment portfolio.

    MITI’S pessimism forward is similar to my cautionary warning.

    oxygen: Oil is transportation of humans and goods, the speed of oil price fall despite political tensions, tells me the risks is STACKED HEAVILY ON THE DOWNSIDE.
    …….facing the WORST outcome conceivable – LIKE IT OR NOT.

    And CNBC noted the beginning of slump in Chinese consumer spending now felt in China – that can’t be good for global economy outlook in 2019.

    Chinese consumers aren’t spending as much. Many are worried about the future

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/22/chinese-consumers-arent-spending-as-much-because-theyre-worried.html

    SO AGAIN, I PROPOSITION TO YOU AGAIN, the global economy outlook is TILTED HEAVILY ON THE DOWNSIDE.

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  • TL Tan:

    @Oxygen

    The commodity price falls that you refer to, are a result of hedge funds unwinding their bullish bets (financial derivatives trades) over the past year. These bullish bets, were in turn driven by easy liquidity. But now with the US Fed raising interest rates, the cost of borrowing to finance carry trades becomes increasingly unprofitable. Similar for equity markets. Bond markets, being comparatively illiquid, have fewer transactions but price falls will be more pronounced. However, in commodities trading, the flow of physical cargos into China remains robust. Therefore, what happens in financial markets (driven mostly by liquidity and sentiment) do not necessarily reflect economic activity in the real economy (driven by actual demand).

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  • oxygen:

    @ TL Tan

    THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR REJOINDER in this conversation. So you agree with my reality observations that commodities prices DID IN FACT FALL substantially, in the last 6 months?

    TL Tan: The commodity price falls that you refer to, are a result of hedge funds unwinding their bullish bets (financial derivatives trades) over the past year. These bullish bets, were in turn driven by easy liquidity.

    You attribute these price declines to hedge funds unwinding, pressured by unprofitable carrying trade due to rising interest rate in the midst of tightening liquidity.

    I doubt this assertion is correct. Interest rate bottomed in 2016 – not just in 2018. The credit cycle therefore turned by early 2017 but nickel, copper, zinc, cobalt took the caning since 6 months ago. My mining investment portfolio DECLINED ONE-WAY since then. So I see things differently from your perspective of hedge funds unwinding as explanatory. The timing of credit cycle turn and commodities prices DON’T COINCIDE to convince me of your stance. I doubt hedge funds are equally aggressive or competent/incompetent of risks betting across all commodities sector – particularly gold which is dominated – not be hedge funds – but by ETFs like SPDR and increasingly the weight of central bank buying. Which hedge funds on carrying trade dares to bet against one central bank, much less the growing central banks collectively across the world. Financial market players knows very well this – you can bet with anyone BUT IF YOU BET WITH CENTRAL BANK it is suicidal. Why? Central banks print money i.e. ammunition unlimited which they can withdraw without notice at any moment and silently. So the fall in gold price can’t be due to hedge funds unwinding. Even Central banks buying didn’t stop the bleeding.

    I can’t see hedge funds speculating in oil futures – THIS ONE IS TOO POLITICAL – from Venezeula to Nigeria to Libya, to Iraq to Iran (sanction) to falling prices hitting the profitability of US shale gas production. The waterfall speed and virulent slaughter of crude oil price since October speaks volume of the volatility and total unpredictability of oil bet. I am sure the bulls got slaughtered like pigs in the abattoir.

    The FAANG stocks steep fall in recent weeks says a bubble economy losing its air. More damaging is interest rate rise impact on mortgage taking a UNIFORM COLLAPSE in property prices from Sydney, HK, China, Vancouver to Toronto to Dublin – all assets are repriced ahead of a SLOWER ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AHEAD.

    Sgp 2nd qtr GDP numbers is telling. THE ECONOMY SOURING.

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  • objective:

    You are right.
    Look at Bitcoin.
    Its recent price movements were simply irrational of economics.

    Oftentimes,speculative investors using Algos move markets erratically.
    Better way of judging real economic activity is via physical movements like you say.

    Good analysis.

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  • important standard:

    //Lets be proffesional in our criticism so that we can keep the government in check and give credibility to any opposition to take over.//

    aiyoh. how leh. when garment could wayang (not so professional) @ the top level (when important standard should be set) e.g 4 = 5 and selected = elected with ownself-check-ownself shifting rules to ‘fix’ even people who are trying hard to be ‘professional’ and some ‘saint’ (playing on people’s general nature of wanting to be fair and nice) expects lesser mortal (who have lesser resources to be funny) to be professional. ?

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  • Bobo:

    Just have to look at our neighbour country. Every projects the BN signed are generating big money. On the overlook, the ideas are fantastics. They are growing GDP for the country and creating jobs for the citizens. GST implemented and increasing gradually sounds great for the future, but when asked where is the collected GST money? No one could answer.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Objective

    FACILE ASSERTION below. Since which date is the price of bitcoin has underpinning of economic rationality?

    objective: You are right.
    Look at Bitcoin.
    Its recent price movements were simply irrational of economics.

    Oftentimes,speculative investors using Algos move markets erratically.
    Better way of judging real economic activity is via physical movements like you say.

    Good analysis.

    And algos move markets erratically? How come nickel, copper, zinc ALL TIPPED OVER TOGETHER from 6 months ago COLLECTIVELY IN CONJUNCTION instead of erratically you claimed?

    And how come Goldman Sachs, Nomura, JP Morgan and even OECD all turned bearish at the SAME TIME TOGETHER of global economy outlook consistent with falling base metals prices and now extended to crude oil?

    Either the investment bankers/OECD is telling us tall fairy tales or you!

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  • Change We Must:

    Ok what! they must have did a detail study before they spend so much money. If the projection is correct, T5 is still not enough if the AP air traffic projected growth continues to climb.

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  • oxygen:

    @ TL Tan & @ Objective

    HAVE YOU BOTH NOTICED YET THESE FACTS – two days ago, I wrote

    oxygen: Oil is transportation of humans and goods, the speed of oil price fall despite political tensions, tells me the risks is STACKED HEAVILY ON THE DOWNSIDE

    oxygen: The waterfall speed and virulent slaughter of crude oil price since October speaks volume of the volatility and total unpredictability of oil bet. I am sure the bulls got slaughtered like pigs in the abattoir.

    oxygen: And CNBC noted the beginning of slump in Chinese consumer spending now felt in China – that can’t be good for global economy outlook in 2019.

    Chinese consumers aren’t spending as much. Many are worried about the future

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/22/chinese-consumers-arent-spending-as-much-because-theyre-worried.html

    SO AGAIN, I PROPOSITION TO YOU AGAIN, the global economy outlook is TILTED HEAVILY ON THE DOWNSIDE.

    If you both writers are “objective”, you will further notice that the writing is on the wall since October 2018. The proof is below from CNBC

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/31/chinese-consumers-are-becoming-wary-of-spending.html

    And you also will discover in hindsight of truth/reality, crude oil prices collapsed like a waterfall, speed and of violent impact exactly since the end of October. Oil bulls were slaughtered like pigs in abattoir as I posited in this thread.

    AND GUESS WHAT? Here is this morning read on Marketwatch.com on why oil prices tumbled. CHINESE DEMAND FOR OIL AND OIL DERIVATIVES SLOWED DOWN recently. Here you go.

    Marketwatch.com : China demand: China’s demand for oil byproduct, gasoline, dropped to a the lowest level in 13 months, according to a Reuters report on Friday, offering further signs that the Beijing-Washington trade spat is hurting the world’s second-largest economy and one of the biggest importers of energy-related products.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-key-reasons-the-bottom-is-falling-out-of-oil-prices-on-black-friday-2018-11-23

    and this is contrary to what @ TL Tan posted here.

    TL Tan: The flow of LNG and petrochemicals into China is similarly strong.

    @TL Tan…

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  • oxygen:

    @ Objective

    Your facile narrative resides in fantasy land – not found on facts and substance of evidence.

    Goldman Sachs, Nomura, JP Morgan, OECD are correct and so is our own Ministry of Trade and Industry.

    I think you and @ TL Tan should watch carefully not just the crude oil price (affected by political triggers and contamination too on the supply side) but also stainless steel prices (because this illuminated the extent of construction and real estate acknowledged by @ TL Tan correctly in this thread). If you check historical records, stainless steel prices ACTUALLY LIFTED UP to higher elevation/trajectory when the credit market cycle turned from the bottom of the 2016 negative interest rate cycle in EU/Japan and interest rate in US was nearly 30 years low. Rising steel prices gave me some comfort of confidence that negative interest rate of 2016 DID NOT SPELL a collapse of global economy then.

    Recent data coming out of metal market bulletin speaks of chilly demand conditions in China – yet another signal of consumption weakness of real estate and infrastructure construction in China.

    My take is that IF THE STAINLESS STEEL MARKET collapse alongside oil price, all hell breaks lose – particularly if this also coincides with falling real estate prices in HK and in big Chinese cities continues to exacerbate.

    The global economy, including Singapore continues to sour and THE RISKS – as MITI also admits – is TILTED ON THE DOWNSIDE.

    So, unless @ Objective can supply evidence to the contrary of the spread and weight of adverse opinions from investment banks, OECD, Ministry of Trade & Industry, and of course THE BELOW-TREND Singapore GDP growth numbers, I am forecasting Singapore GDP numbers to come in weaker in the final qtr and worst prognosis in 2019.

    IT IS NOT HARD FOR ME TO COMPREHEND WHY OUT OF 2000 gawking eyes in a recent property launched, only 30 were allegedly claimed to have been “bought” but only 13 of these transaction were registered in official record.

    Conditions are much more gloomier than official pronouncement from MITI – they were slower to note of forward risks in July 2018 (post the strong June qtr GDP surge) that September qtr will be bad when

    - metal prices from nickel, copper, zinc TOGETHER have all swing south
    - stainless steel prices rise have slowed
    - Australian property prices falling as Chinese hot money inflow cooled off even without a raise in interest rate
    - the Fed is hawkish
    - the effects of Trump’s tax cut manuring of the US economy is transient and temporary
    - rising US dollar is pressuring emerging market financial stability from Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Argentina etc

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  • oxygen:

    @ Objective

    EVEN WILDLY-BULLISH Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Savita Subramaniam has joined the bearish chorus forecasting a US stock market decline in 2019. Read this weblink.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/bank-of-america-sees-market-decline-next-year-there-is-now-an-alternative-to-stocks.html

    I am TOTALLY FLUMMOXED by her apparently wildly optimism for year ending 2018 preceding her equally stunning gloomy 2019 forecast IF CNBC IS CORRECT of quoting her. Why?

    CNBC :We believe the peak in equities is likely before the end of 2019,” wrote Savita Subramanian, equity and quantitative strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a note this week. She sees the S&P 500 rising slightly to 3,000 before the end of this year and then falling 3 percent in 2019 to 2,900.

    S & P 500 closed Black Friday at 2,632. That means that for S& P 500 to peak at slightly above 3000, it must rise by at least 368 points or 14% in just 5 weeks to yr end December 31. This, to me, is MISSION IMPOSSIBLE unless BOAML’s Savita Subramaniam knows something of economic fundamentals and market conditions I have not yet discover!

    As far as I am aware, in this Thanksgiving shorten 4-days trading week, the US market HAS FALLEN 4-STRAIGHT DAYS in a row. The Dow, SPX, Nasdaq futures all points to negative territory next week’s opening i.e. heading down.

    Savita is negative of 2019 – just 5 weeks from now, why is the last 4 weeks so bullish? I am totally flummoxed BUT CERTAINLY AGREE WITH HER that 2019 is bearish US stock market outlook for these reasons/observations.

    - all major US stock indices are pointing south and heading south with no apparent reprieve in sight
    - US bond prices slim lower as US dollar rises hinting investors are fleeing to bond buying up US dollar to pay for bond purchase
    - gold prices does not react positively to stock market decline, the usual negative correlation of safe haven buy is missing.
    - bitcoin, the biggest cryto-currency also out of favor and some analysts are forecasting further downside risks.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-selloff-has-more-room-to-go-says-analyst-2018-11-23

    @ Objective, all evidences before my eyes points to souring economy and all asset classes – with possible safe haven exception of US bonds and US$ – are re-pricing downwards which even “very positively bullish” BOAML also agrees of downside risks in 2019.

    MITI shares that negative downside risks perspective.

    @ Objective, do you have anything contrary to these compelling evidences otherwise?

    Me thinks the next big hole is SGP property.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Objective

    READ HOW BRUTALLY BITCOIN TREATED a new wave of recent retail punters. Here you go.

    Bitcoin tumbles again, loses a quarter of its value during Thanksgiving week
    PUBLISHED FRI, NOV 23 2018 • 11:50 AM ES

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/bitcoin-tumbles-again-loses-a-quarter-of-its-value-during-thanksgiving-week.html

    Why this brutal merciless caning of Bitcoin & its investors?

    Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors : Markets around the world are fragile, and panic and sentiment are playing a disproportionate role right now,”

    It market panic, there is NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP CREATED AND THIS ALONE WILL COMPOUND AND EXAGGERATE ASSET PRICE DEVALUATIONS.

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