Eviscerated PAP

Dr Rais Hussin, a leader under Dr Mahathir’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) had threatened Singapore with ‘pain by a thousand cuts’ . Hyperbole is not just in President’s Trump political lexicon.

Over the years of observing the opposition parties, you can honestly say that at the moment, they are not really in a position to take over government. The Workers’ Party (WP) trouble with AHTC shows a certain naivety. Not that surprising given that most are lawyers, and with none ever managing any big companies. But didnt Lee Kuan Yew said thats the reason why GRC is formed? To help opposition build and develop their expertise?

So lets understand that the opposition parties we have now are undernourished, undermined and severely understaffed in their capacity. But to even get to this point is great credence to WP. They moved away from JB Jeyeratnam’s flamboyance and into a more methodical party with emphasis on grassroots building. But clearly, AHTC does show some, if you must, inevitable lapses of managerial know how.

The political scene in Singapore is a bit liked someone young, who has been listening to a certain kind of music from infancy. If PAP is popular music, full of populism. We are less likely to be appreciative of musical diversity, be that ethnic music, jazz, or musicians liked Miles Davis etc.  We are conditioned to a fixed point where our dopamines get released.

But as we mature, the foundations of music becomes a curiosity. We become more involved with the technics, the rhythm, the notes and the creativity of the musician. In other words, we become adults rather than a child. From consuming, away from nestling between your mum’s bosoms to taking an interest in the process, the appreciation of the details, the ‘wow’ moment when you get that epiphany that marries the senses, the intellect and the spiritual. The difference between a fxxker and a lover.

Why is color more important than monochrome? Let’s take a look at the recent farcas over the Seletar Airport. Malaysia wanted to reclaim the airspace over Southern Johor ‘delegated’ to Singapore to manage since 1974. The main reason seems to be Singapore’s decision to implement ILS (Instrument Landing System) procedures for Seletar Airport from Jan 3, 2019.

Minister Khaw Boon Wan stated that, “But I think the situation seems to be using this technical excuse to trigger demand, to change the airspace arrangement which was brokered by ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) long, long ago in 1973, which has worked very well, benefiting all stakeholders in this region.”

But an article in The Online Citizen; “Looking beyond Seletar Airport…”, succinctly shows that it is about competition between Malaysia’s Senai International Airport and Seletar Airport, both hoping to capture the lucrative private jets market.

Why is it that PAP seems to love Najip’s Malaysia more than reinvented Mahathir’s Malaysia? I guess cause Najip had such a huge corrupted burden on his shoulders , he is easier to be amenable to Singapore. We are dealing with a new political epoch in Malaysia. Our intelligence, our foreign service, our government had failed to predict this, despite being Malaysia’s closest neighbor!

Being wrong is one thing, who is not? But to insist on an anal political personality is going to cause alot of friction going forward. And with Malaysia playing an Ace card, wanting to implement a permanent restricted area over Pasir Gudang for military purpose, PAP relented and suspended the implementation of the ILS.

Whether it is domestic or external political problems, PAP likes to rely on so called ‘laws’. The black and white laws are comforting in a monochrome world where you don’t need too much energy to display the colors of perspectives. It is chaotic to them.

It is the natural cycle of any country to be renewed periodically. But we are an unusual country, East to West, less than 3 hours , you will drive straight into the sea. But eventually the natural cycle catches us all.

You have Kishore Mahbubani vs Bilahari Kausikan over how assertive a small State can or should be. You have Tony Tan vs Tan Cheng Bock, elites vs grassroots. You have Tommy Koh and Lim Chong Yah vs PAP on minimum wage. You have Lee Hsien Loong vs his siblings over LKY’s heritage. You have more engagements from citizens through social media, chewing data and opinions, no longer satisfied with just news from mainstream media.

I think you are seeing the inchoate of opposition coming from within the elites themselves. This will bolster the much needed foundations for a stable and accepted opposition to the 70% voters.

Dr Rais Hussin (as above) is full of theater. I am not unused to elites in Malaysia mocking Singaporeans, I have experienced it myself. So what. The point is to understand that the game is multi-dimensional, no longer can we hope and rely on authoritarian and corrupt governments to ease our way. No longer can we just rely on international laws and efficiency to carry our economy.

And the first thing is to quickly build our social compact. Unlike the highly intoxicated PAP IBs, this is not about giving vouchers and freebies, but about coalescing political opinions. And that means sharing an equitable economic pie with ordinary Singaporeans. That Singapore belongs firstly to Singaporeans.

Tommy Koh and Lim Chong Yah are right about the minimum wage. Even if you argue about the merits, it cannot be denied it has a social objective to give financial security, cementing a social compact. Workfare is just as expensive, but gives ‘power’ to employers rather than empowering workers.

Tan Cheng Bock represents the interests of ordinary Singaporeans versus the business interests, he will have the balance that PM Lee and his cabinet do not have. PM Lee is into billionaires, and his stooges online have called Singaporeans advocating for social balance, ‘politics of envy’.

Mahbubani is too enthusiastic about China. But he is right in that how we punch above our weight may need some recalibration. And here, I suggest that the shift of that responsibility should fall on the shoulders of ordinary Singaporeans rather than the government. And with the lineup of the PAP 4G leadership, it will be inevitable.

Finally, PM Lee taking on his siblings and their family is quite astonishing. LHL is losing his father’s family. It is broken and eviscerated. Technically, I see the next election, PAP will retest the low of 60%.

PAP is ripe for imploding. It is not the end yet. But we should as citizens recognize that we better give a more solid foundation to the opposition as a bulwark against a dilapidated PAP.

 

BK

 

 

 

 

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41 Responses to “Eviscerated PAP”

  • Despicable LHL:

    In red dot, ah long is called D*shonourble One.

    In HK, he is remembered as Bai Ka Chai (destroy family son)

    Shame, shame…

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  • opposition dude:

    How all these issues will play out remains to be seen. PAP cannot run away from whatever percentage of votes they will get at the next GE and no one in their right mind will say they can maintain their 69.9% share.

    Since the goondu of a PM does not mind embarrassing himself against his family with multiple news media reporting on it then so shall it be. We just sit back and watch the drama unfold bit by bit.

    As for Singapore suspending the use of ILS this was surprising since PAP likes to do things the hard way. If they are so confident that ICAO mandated whatever shit it was back then I’m very surprised they did not press and demand Malaysia adhere to the agreement. Perhaps Mahathir is too much for PAP to handle?

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  • patriot of TUMASIK:

    Well written simple layman terms no Highfalutin to impress or self glorify…Thank you BK

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  • Old man:

    Ìam praying for a below 50%!

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  • MarBowling:

    Great comments by BK.

    The future of SinKapore going forward depend a lot on the 69.9% DAFTS. If they are still more concerned with the VALUE of their prized possessions(hdb flats, EC, condo and landed property)rather than the future generations, when the next GFC hit us, it will take years for us, esp the common folks to recover. Most folks would be under waters when the housing bubbles POP! When SHTF, expect lot of retrenchment Involving locals with those without poly cert or degree Kenna affected the most.

    A lot of our foodstuffs and essential products are imported from Malaysia. Once the Malaysian government restricted a certain amount of imports to SinKapore, we will be in deep shits. They can give their reasons and we have to accept them. First it was eggs, then fish. Later, it will be non-foodstuffs!

    So the current 69.9% DAFTS have to think in DEPTH the consequence of giving A BLANK Cheque AGAIN to the PAPigs in the GE. We need more opposition to get into Parliament to provide the Check and Balance so that there is NO GROUP THINK and rid off certain individual who has ONE HAND that covers the whole sky in SinKapore when everything and anything he says is the Imperial Decree and Mandate. Do you still have TRUST and CONFIDENCE in that person to run our country when he couldn’t even able to put his FamiLEE and house in order. Btw the so-called 4G LEEders are just a bunch of JLB, useless buggers. They are SELECTED NOT ELECTED via the Crap GRC scheme of things into Parliament NOT because of Calling to SERVE the people But because of the obscene $millions salaries, period. Should opposition is able to unseat the PAPigs in the next GE, FIRST THING THEY MUST DO, IS TO REDUCE THE OBSCENE SALARIES OF MINISTERS AND TOP GUNS BY 50 to 70%! Go back to basics!

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  • The Nightmare’s Just Begun...:

    “PAP is ripe for imploding. It is not the end yet.” – BK

    Not the end but the beginning of the end. Hence the process must be accelerated in order to avoid the mistakes of others in Man’s history.

    And if the time is ripe, since the time is ripe
    - and the outcome a foregone conclusion -
    we cannot afford to (continue to behave like the Chinese people for so many episodes in millennia of their history, leading to consequence after disastrous consequence with horrifying impacts still being felt today, with no recovery in sight for the next half a millennium at least by some estimates, and simply) wait for the impending implosion that we already saw coming to naturally occur, can we!?

    Rather than wait
    - like the Chinese who, even today, are still repeating their ancestors’ mistakes by sitting around & waiting fingers crossed for the ‘natural’ implosion of the Communist Party (BFF comrades to PAP) while Mao’s successors devise & scheme to keep themselves in power and yet again destroy the country in the process and tear it into shreds -
    for the eventual to happen,
    we can, we should and we must HASTEN THAT PROCESS!

    For we owe it to not only ourselves and our children and our children’s children, we also owe it to history and all of humanity
    (before more banana republics, especially in our immediate neighborhood with the likes of Hun Sen’s Cambodia and even Aung San Suu Kyi’s Burma, pick up even more from LKY’s playbook of impunity for tyrannic autocracy to put the filthiest & cruelest tricks to play with no repercussions)
    to do so and to do so with immediacy.

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  • Barry:

    Nice share @BK

    PAP has crossed the line to the point of no return with it’s self serving objectives in oppose to putting in place polices and laws foremost in the interest of the nation and her citizens. Thus, it has to continue with it’s one-trick pony ways for it’s stranglehold on power to govern absolutely with fear and intimidation.

    Anything less than a two thirds majority is not an option for PAP. It couldn’t afford a coalition government. With obfuscation, no accountability and transparency, all we have been presented for our eyes, ears and for some, brain as well, are at best, opacity.

    What possibly could transpire if indeed a coalition government is in place? Books will have to be opened for scrutiny, issues regarding conflict of interest to be addressed and certainly many more. The floodgate couldn’t be contained anymore. It will burst and people will be drowned.

    So, the consequence is dire for PAP. Hence, however distasteful, disgusting and unscrupulous the way it conducts itself, it has no qualms in doing so as it’s arse is on the line.

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  • The Nightmare’s Just Begun...:

    “PAP is ripe for imploding. It is not the end yet.” – BK
    Not the end but the beginning of the end. Hence the process must be accelerated in order to avoid the mistakes of others in Man’s history.
    And if the time is ripe, since the time is ripe
    - and the outcome a foregone conclusion -
    we cannot afford to (continue to behave like the Chinese people for so many episodes in millennia of their history, leading to consequence after disastrous consequence with horrifying impacts still being felt today, with no recovery in sight for the next half a millennium at least by some estimates, and simply) wait for the impending implosion that we already saw coming to naturally occur, can we!?
    Rather than wait
    - like the Chinese who, even today, are still repeating their ancestors’, their predecessors’ mistakes by sitting around & waiting fingers crossed for the ‘natural’ implosion of the Communist Party (BFF comrades to PAP) while Mao’s successors devise & scheme to keep themselves in power and yet again destroy the country in the process and tear it into shreds -
    for the eventual to happen,
    we can, we should and we must HASTEN THAT PROCESS!
    For we owe it to not only ourselves and our children and our children’s children, we also owe it to history and all of humanity
    (before more banana republics, especially in our immediate neighborhood with the likes of Hun Sen’s Cambodia and even Aung San Suu Kyi’s Burma, pick up even more from LKY’s playbook of impunity for tyrannic autocracy to put the filthiest & cruelest tricks to play with no repercussions)
    to do so and to do so with immediacy.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    BK:
    We are dealing with a new political epoch in Malaysia. Our intelligence, our foreign service, our government had failed to predict this, despite being Malaysia’s closest neighbor! …Whether it is domestic or external political problems, PAP likes to rely on so called ‘laws’. –

    @ BK
    It’s an astute piece. Thanks.

    We embraced the idea of ‘international governance’ in the form of the UN, and various related international ruling bodies. Our so called ‘international governance’, like our dollars, are essentially fictions whose value and power reside in the credence, interpretation, consent and adherence that we –and especially those of us in positions of authority– place in them.
    In large measure our political divide is due to structural problems with the current electoral system and ‘legal issues’ that have considerable bearing on our social and political life. In a society as divided by class, by culture and by values as ours, the opportunity to achieve national reconciliation and economic justice, via civility and forbearance, seems indeed remote.
    One of the most important lessons in sports is that ‘away’ team that works together wins and those that abandon that focus lose. Fear and paranoid always work in politics. But anger and rage are even more powerful to get voters into the voting booth to put the Govt. to rout.
    History suggests that many societal transformations usually occur in the blink of an eye rather than in slow motion. Look at the current situation in Malaysia, we are at beginning of a cataclysmic change, and it does not appear that it will be for the better.
    We are essentially fighting over a shrinking pie. If global economy is booming, as it was in the past, many people would be more inclined to share some of their ever-increasing pie. Then we could be confident that there would be more for everyone tomorrow in a booming economy. We have leaders, but they only serve their interests and agendas. That’s was what got us into this mess in the first place with our closest neighbor. Don’t you think this nation’s paralysis has gone on for far long enough?

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    Correction:
    Our so called ‘international governance’, like our economy, are essentially fictions whose value and power reside in the credence, interpretation, consent and adherence that we –and especially those of us in positions of authority– place in them.

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  • Elitism Is A Dirty Word:

    Very good article but not persuasive enough, no sufficient “punch”.

    In addition, some of the “incidents”, external and internal, could have been manufactured and manipulated to gain sympathy votes.

    The General’s Erection is Cuming.

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  • Flabbergasted:

    Good article, points valid and well articulated.

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  • More Pain Change Will Come:

    The naivety is in the voters, the author represents one such typical voter, who believe PAP will listen and capable of change, the naivety is in the voters to expect a ‘ready’ oppositions to take over when PAP has a stranglehold on all the resources and government institutions to fix the opponents and elections.

    AHTC is a clear sign of political fixing, at a great expense to nation, not that oppositions do not have the experience but rather, underestimate the great evil that PAP will go through to remove any sign of criticisms and any potential challenger to their stranglehold on power.
    Why would anyone pursue that with such intensity?
    The obvious is absolute power breeds and preserve absolute corruptions. Any change would expose the great decay within.
    Why would policy shift be feared? That deep ingrained cronism be weaken and corruptions exposed. PAP has depended on milking money to feed the large crony empire for self preservation and gain.

    Sinkies can naively wait for better days that will never come with status quo. The author could “philosophise” and reason all he wants, but the outcome is already there, every ordinary sinkie is already facing the decline and hardships created by PAP.
    The real seasoned businessman will not hesitate to change the failing team. Corporations do that all the time by removing non performing managers and the teams that they installed. The changes needed are not just tweaks but mindset and uprooting corruptions. Any change can be disruptive, but only with changes than there can be reasonable hope for better outcome.

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  • Non natural aristocracy:

    The hypocrite bears four indelible marks: as he speaks he lies; what he promises he does not fulfill; when he is entrusted with something he will betray that trust; when he disagrees with you over matter he resorts to unfair tactics.

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  • LIONS:

    Well said,author.
    PAP is over complacent.
    The gahmen are HAUGHTY BUT EMPTY.

    TIME TO RID OFF EMPTY VE$$EL$.

    TIME FOR OTHER SGS TO SHINE.

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  • Layman:

    What’s “Highfalutin”? Sounds like falun gong.

    patriot of TUMASIK:
    Well written simple layman terms no Highfalutin to impress or self glorify…Thank you BK

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ BK:
    S’pore is a well-organised (govt) Arbitrage Economy. We’re dependent on exploiting the low cost resources &/or cheap labour inputs from our surrounding region. Which is then parlayed into playing in the Globalization process (free trade agreements, Corporate tax haven preying on tax inefficiencies, clever tax accounting practices) &/or lop-sided trade flows with Developed Economies ie. Regional HQ treasury ops, transfer pricing tactics, bidding 1st world pricing but using unfair labour practices (rig building, ship repairs eg. Keppel, Semb Marine) to reap exceptional profits. It’s a game well-honed over a long time – I dare say since the British came to S’pore.
    The Reagan-Thatcher economic doctrine in the 1980s played well into S’pore’s Arbitrage Economy. The height of the Economic Cold War used S’pore as a pillar of Democracy never mind that it was clearly Authoritarian.
    But the end of the Cold War in late 1980s/1990s signified with the collapse of the Berlin Wall laid a marker for a changing World (with deep implications for S’pore). The rise of China (forsaking Marxism for State Capitalism) meant the eventual decline for S’pore.
    The 1998 ACC laid another marker for S’pore. The end of General Economic Prosperity for the masses. S’pore Economic Restructuring that took place since reconfigured S’pore to take advantage of Globalisation’s late stage re: repatriation of huge accumulated profits from inward manufacturing investments from China to low tax shelters. S’pore’s wealth redistribution from here on had very little trickle down economic flows. The General Prosperity of the masses were over but few knew it.
    And the 2008 GFC laid the biggest marker of all – the liquidification of the world’s economy with excessive monetary growth. It was done to elicit economic growth conditions. Truth is that it inflated Asset prices & created the Everything-is-a-Bull-Market eco-system. It even took risk off the table with risky Investments palatable for yield-hungry investors. Debt was the main course on the menu & literally everyone partake in it. A lot of Developed & emerging economies were wallowing with debt at this point in time.
    There is a new marker but few can see it. It is the end of the oil-driven Global economy. The long links of Globalisation & the specialised Economy like S’pore’s Arbitrage Economy are especially vulnerable. Renewable energy weaned consuming nations off oil addiction. The emergence of EVs, ride share apps, autonomous vehicles will be a new paradigm shift of huge consequences, a game changer. The US-China trade tantrums is just a sign. Signs that a well-diversified, self-sufficient economy will be winners, Specialised Economies would suffer greatly.

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  • BK:

    Haigen-diaz:
    Correction:
    Our so called ‘international governance’, like our economy, are essentially fictions whose value and power reside in the credence, interpretation, consent and adherence that we –and especially those of us in positions of authority– place in them.

    Hahaha, yes. It was said that bankers live in a metaphysical plane. If u reduce the financial world to a symbol; a currency, what is a currency, but confidence?

    And confidence is of course, “credence, interpretation, consent and adherence”.

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  • BK:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    Thanks for your usual (:. I think there is another factor at work. It is the declining confidence in the global order. Historically this shifts funds not on the basis of yield, but of preservation.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    Rabble-rouser: There is a new marker but few can see it. It is the end of the oil-driven Global economy. The long links of Globalisation & the specialised Economy like S’pore’s Arbitrage Economy are especially vulnerable.

    BK:If u reduce the financial world to a symbol; a currency, what is a currency, but confidence?
    And confidence is of course, “credence, interpretation, consent and adherence”.

    @ BK, Rabble-rouser:

    Whatever the state of the world economy, it is now built entirely on the house of cards that is the world financial system, which can collapse at any time. WHITHER FREE MARKET?
    It has developed a new strain of investors that are expert at subverting the best attempts of authorities to channel economic energies towards socially relevant causes. It is a school of piranhas waiting for the next erratic move within the money system to attack at its most open and vulnerable point.
    But how does the future look for currencies? US or otherwise, such as the Chinese Yuan. Currency manipulation is great – as long as YOU’RE the one doing the manipulating. The US have many fiscal mechanisms in place at the Federal level that redistribute funds from richer and more productive states like New Jersey and Illinois to poorer states like Alabama and New Mexico. But no such mechanisms exist in Europe as far as I know other than the absurdly dysfunctional interactions that characterize the response to the Greek crisis.
    Yes, the Eurozone truly is out of balance. The idea of a one-size-fits-all monetary policy meeting the needs of 19 countries–each with different sizes and needs–is truly ludicrous. Until Europe develops more centralized fiscal policies, ones that can legally transfer wealth from richer countries to poorer ones, don’t try to predict where it’s headed.
    As Rabble-rouser mentioned. Investment opportunities for profit – in cheap labor markets and on poor countries with a wealth of natural resources – It has become THE major problem for the world economy (Trump’s wall, Brexit, Yellow vests), instead of being a positive force for business and trade. Who believes in the good fairy called “free markets?” now.

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  • oxygen:

    “HOW DID YOU GO BANKRUPT?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly according to Ernest Hemingway.

    https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/102579-how-did-you-go-bankrupt-two-ways-gradually-then-suddenly

    Me thinks degenerated society and political institutions are like that too. Degeneration is concealed and oppressed of public mind awareness BUT THE ROT CONTINUES GRADUALLY, then suddenly one big trigger (like the next GFC) brings about sudden death collapsed FOR THE OVER-LEVERAGED.

    Haigen-diaz: @ BK, Rabble-rouser:

    Whatever the state of the world economy, it is now built entirely on the house of cards that is the world financial system, which can collapse at any time. WHITHER FREE MARKET?

    @ Haigen Diaz is, of course, correct. The world is dancing on the precipice of oppression in cover of fake economics. IT WON’T LAST.

    Even Kim Jong Un knows he has to walk back from dumbfarked nuclearisation & authoritarianism akin to a banana republic and find the survival pathway through economic development/liberalisation just like China, Vietnam.

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  • BK:

    @ Haigen-diaz

    Interesting. EU does not have the recycling mechanism of the US, moving money from rich areas to invest in poorer areas. And Germany is the biggest culprit. Germany’s mercantile policy and austere nature is hoarding much needed funds to the south of EU.

    The breakup of Bretton Woods has shown how currencies can be used to offset different productive, industrial and intellectual capacities. Greece would have a chance to move out of its woes if it had its own currency. Iceland is an example.

    For EU to recycle it would need to consolidate its debt. Meaning all debt is aggregated at Brussels. US can do it because its people see themselves as Americans.But can you imagine Germany agreeing to take the debts of Italy, Spain, Greece etc. Politically impossible.

    They thought monetary union will give them political union. Instead it shows, unfortunately, how politically fractious Europe was and is. This EU experiment is going to end, we hope without blood.

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  • oxygen:

    YET ANOTHER PAGE OF RBILLIANT WRITING and contributing comments in this thread.

    Rabble-rouser: And the 2008 GFC laid the biggest marker of all – the liquidification of the world’s economy with excessive monetary growth. It was done to elicit economic growth conditions. Truth is that it inflated Asset prices & created the Everything-is-a-Bull-Market eco-system. It even took risk off the table with risky Investments palatable for yield-hungry investors. Debt was the main course on the menu & literally everyone partake in it. A lot of Developed & emerging economies were wallowing with debt at this point in time

    Exactly what Frank Giustra,a Canadian philantrophist, very successful mining tycoon.He wrote this warning.

    Dancing on the Precipice: ‘Bankruptcy Happens Gradually, then Suddenly’

    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-10/Dancing-on-the-Precipice-Bankruptcy-Happens-Gradually-then-Suddenly.html

    Asset bubble economies live a precarious life on “confidence” of bubble illusion without substance, in reality, self-delusion.

    BK: Hahaha, yes. It was said that bankers live in a metaphysical plane. If u reduce the financial world to a symbol; a currency, what is a currency, but confidence?

    And confidence is of course, “credence, interpretation, consent and adherence”.

    The same warning came from Li Ka-shing who told Hongkonger of looming global gloomy dark clouds.

    If you’re going to buy a house in Hong Kong, live in it, warns tycoon Li Ka-shing as he forecasts global slowdown

    https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2181753/if-youre-going-buy-house-hong-kong-live-it-warns-tycoon-li-ka

    Read this caption from SCMP.

    SCMP :Developers have been offering steep discounts at recent project launches to drum up sales. For instance, China Overseas Land & Investment offered units at the Regent development in Tai Po for 32 per cent lower than a nearby project launched five months ago.

    A tycoon forfeited his US$4.6 million deposit after signing on just 11 days ago for property purchase.

    In a digitized global market turmoil, financial market separates very quickly, resolutely and in utmost clarity those with substance and those fake of substance.

    Like Ernest Hemingway said – Bankruptcy comes onto in two ways – gradually, then suddenly.

    Li Kah-shing, Frank Guiustra etc are proven quantity, battlefield tested – scholars are…

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  • Ang San Sue Chee/Tang/Leong/等:

    We would all much prefer an EVAPORATED PAP – any day!

    Agree boh, every able- or disadvantaged-body of true-blue Singaporean descent? KEECHIU!

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ BK, Haigen-diaz & oxygen:
    The problem is not with economic growth per se but it is the sharing of the spoils that is the crux. Income inequality is the biggest problem. None so much than in the US. The US Middle-class had withered through phases:
    * Initially, Globalization & outsourcing which sent factory jobs to new destinations;
    * With advanced telecommunications & digital broadband networks, even white collar work could be outsourced re: IT jobs & call centres;
    * Then came reversed insourcing, the influx of 3rd world economic migrants displacing locals. In the US, it was H1-B (mainly IT jobs) & H-4 (for their dependents). It was Silicon Valley/Redmond that were the beneficiaries of this trend.
    Summed up, US Corporations with vast global networks were the initial beneficiaries of Globalisation. But the late stage of Globalisation, it was Wall Street (NYC), Technologists/IT (San Francisco) & Politicians (Washington DC). The US Corporations themselves now face existential threats – Brick ‘n Mortar industries, declining growth, even negative, saturated consumers dealing with poor income/debt issues, business disruptions from technogy & online innovators, etc.
    The 2008 GFC caused a tidal wave of liquidity which inflated Asset values, caused a misguided monetary-fuelled Everything-Bull-Market conditions & encouraged overborrowing as a smart virtue. The consumption growth was a factor of debt, leveraging & unsustainable expectations
    With decades of debt excesses comes eventual payback – AUSTERITY, DELEVERAGING & A PERIOD OF STAGNATION – EVEN BANKRUPTCY.
    Politicians do well with positivity & growth, they can’t be bringers of bad news – it would kill their re-election hopes. Same for MSM – who would advertised for they’re forever sprouting poor economic news? That is why this is an era of cognitive dissonance where the Political Narrative, MSM media statements don’t quite rhyme with the
    reality on the ground. Why the establishment were so quick tarring & feathering the Alternative News media & elements of social media as the source of Fake News & Falsehoods.
    Even the mainstream statistics used by govts to paint a bright picture had lost it’s credibility & integrity. Examples
    * Positive job gains (but many were temporary & near minimum wage levels – those who gave up looking were excluded);
    * GDP growth rate (but little trickle down benefits);
    * High GDP number per capita (but median wage remained low);
    * CPI Low Rate (but how come things were so expensive on the ground & at the supermarkets?)

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    - Cont’d -
    The next Global period would be a period of massive economic migrations & outflows, border security, controls & skirmishes, famines & starvation & lots & lots of natural disasters & even man-made ones.
    And when the DEBT FEAST ends, a period of AUSTERITY begins, periods of DELEVERAGING, BANKRUPTCY, RESTRUCTURINGS & POOR GROWTH.
    The oil-driven economy with long global networks, long distances global supply chains & a globalised settlement system were essentially over! The oil price rapid rise & equally sudden price collapse in 2018 confirms that the oil supply shocks don’t have the same intensity & effect as in the past. OPEC nations are facing their own financial future because they were so used to the big windfalls bought on by high oil price that their extravagant spending habits became entrenched & ingrained within their psyche.
    S’pore’s similarities with their Arbitrage Economy had also ingrained themselves with high political rewards, excessive Infrastructural Spending & overfocus on real estate developments that the weaknesses of a Specialised Arbitrage Economy were overlooked in favour of enhancing even more resources into the Arbitrage Economy; expanding large tracts of land re: Tanjong Pagar, Telok Blangah, Paya Lebar, etc; building Airport Terminals, Seletar Airport expansion & Seaport relocation to Tuas West, etc. It look increasingly futile if the Arbitrage Economy fails.
    The US is looking inwards because they had achieved some form of self sufficiency in energy (Fracking, Tar sands in Canada, Renewables, etc). They have already achieved not only food self-sufficiency, also food exports. Automation, robotics & developments in 3-D printing make manufacturing extremely efficient with little to no human participation. And that was why Trump killed TPPA, made tax reforms & trigger/revamp NAFTA in favour for new bilateral trade agreements with Canada & Mexico separately. This were all done as he went on a Trade rampage against China. Trump is withdrawing/folding global trade into the US borders & with vassal states which he can control & dictate terms to.
    This will be what eviscerates the rigidity of S’pore’s Arbitrage Economy. S’pore is being laid out to be hung dry!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    MATE, HAVE TO DISAGREE WITH YOU on this call.

    Rabble-rouser: The problem is not with economic growth per se but it is the sharing of the spoils that is the crux. Income inequality is the biggest problem

    On my book, the greater risks for LEE-jiapore forward is erosion/loss of income base and that must aggravate and exacerbate the distress of income inequality re-distribution. I am seeing this happening now – the arbitrage economy of tax-loophole inefficiency exploitation is fast disappearing. Plse read this link.

    BHP paying $530m to settle Australian tax dispute

    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/bhp-paying-530m-to-settle-australian-tax-dispute

    Straits Times :BHP will also raise its stake in BHP Billiton Marketing, which is the main company conducting the miner’s Singapore marketing business, to 100 per cent from 58 per cent. The change in ownership will make all profits made in Singapore from Australian assets owned by BHP fully subject to Australian tax, the miner added.

    The same pressure is applied by the Australian Taxation Office on Rio Tinto.

    Corporate tax is the largest component of IRAS revenue base. That is being eroded. It has to find other tax sources to cover this shortfall amidst intense pressure on fast expanding budgetary spending needs of a rising population. PAPpys population recycling economics is NOT working. Despite rising productivity afforded by technology advancement, GDP growth is slower than population growth. Hence the relative imbalance of output gain weighing less than the escalating input costs of foreign population influx such as transportation infrastructure, health costs, home security and all kinds of accommodation and social amenities needed to house a much bigger population. The gains from population recycling economics is PARTICULARLY NON-RECURRING.

    Most economists looks past the unquantifiable of practical reality of flawed population economics – that is intensification of population density via urbanisation brings only TEMPORARY LOW HANGING FRUITS of GDP gain which has no recurrent export value. Shifting of military airfield to Changi and port from P> Panhang to Tuas adds to GDP growth in the year of “shifting houses”. GDP gains is mirage- income benefit flows to foreign labor. Native Sinkies got nothing.

    To pay for it, MORE GST RISE AWAITS – income is redistributed REGRESSIVELY from poor to elite’s multi-million paid politicians!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    NO THINKING MIND SWALLOWS – except perhaps the 70% daft too stupid to even begin to discover they are stupid to impossibility – what they are regularly fed of mainstream statistics cheerfully trumpeted by mainstream media

    Rabble-rouser: Narrative, MSM media statements don’t quite rhyme with the
    reality on the ground. Why the establishment were so quick tarring & feathering the Alternative News media & elements of social media as the source of Fake News & Falsehoods.
    Even the mainstream statistics used by govts to paint a bright picture had lost it’s credibility & integrity. Examples
    * Positive job gains (but many were temporary & near minimum wage levels – those who gave up looking were excluded);

    IT SIMPLY MADE NO SENSE AT ALL. In aging demographic – a structural impediment to increase in labor manpower but instead imposing a dwindling impact of labor supply – and PAPpys claims of slower foreign labor importation, HOW CAN INCREASE IN THE NUMBERS OF JOBS EVERY MONTH NOT REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTIC TO ZERO than its official recurrent pronouncement that unemployment remain constant at X % ? Doesn’t shrinking lab supply due to aging demographic and alleged curbs on foreign labor import -even without increase in job creation – necessarily reduce official statistics of national unemployment level?

    SO IT MUST BE EITHER ONE OR COMBINATION OF THREE OF THESE STATS ARE FAKE NEWS:

    - aging demographic retirement-induce fall in labor supply is false.
    - curb on foreign labor supply is false
    - number of news jobs created is false

    OR THE UNOFFICIAL STATISTIC ON UNEMPLOYMENT IS FALSE.

    NOW LOOK AT THE CONTRAST OF SIMILAR UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTIC RELEASED IN US in January 2019 – SOMETHING IS VERY DIFFERENT HERE.

    U.S. gains 312,000 jobs in 10-month high that shattered Wall Street forecasts

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gains-312000-jobs-in-final-month-of-2018-soaring-above-wall-street-forecast-2019-01-04

    Now let me capture the essence of differentiation of statistical figures announced found in that link.

    Marketwatch.com : The numbers: The U.S. gained 312,000 new jobs in December ………The unemployment rate, meanwhile, rose to 3.9% from a 49-year low of 3.7%.</blockquote

    Notice INCREASED JOB CREATION resulted in HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT from 3.7% to 3.9% because more unemployed are returning to the workforce. Official stats is "live" of changing unemployed pool relative to available jobs created.

    LEE-jiapore? Unemployed…

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    Jeffrey Gundlach, global bond king, said the US economy is floating on an ocean of debt.

    http://fortune.com/2019/01/12/jeffrey-gundlach-us-debt/

    Rabble-rouser: The 2008 GFC caused a tidal wave of liquidity which inflated Asset values, caused a misguided monetary-fuelled Everything-Bull-Market conditions & encouraged overborrowing as a smart virtue. The consumption growth was a factor of debt, leveraging & unsustainable expectations
    With decades of debt excesses comes eventual payback – AUSTERITY, DELEVERAGING & A PERIOD OF STAGNATION – EVEN BANKRUPTCY.
    Polit

    Just like you, me thinks that is a global scourge & economic decline -exactly like what Frank Giustra warned of bankruptcy awaiting – it comes in two step, gradually and then suddenly.

    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-01-10/Dancing-on-the-Precipice-Bankruptcy-Happens-Gradually-then-Suddenly.html

    Frank warned of the “power of greed” insatiable and of loose threads soon to unravel. The obsession with debt is mind-boggling from sovereign to corporate to peasantry in an orgy of wild spending and speculation, A lot will get drown – the writing is on the wall. The bond market is pricing risks of a recession waiting at the door but the Fed is a little bit more optimistic of disagreeing. That prove the lack of synchronised agreement between what the financial market thinks and what central banks like Fed reads of the true state of global economy. One of them or both of them could be utterly wrong and THAT IS VERY DANGEROUS when trigger set off the panic button pandemonium of reaction.

    Li Kah-shing is gloomy too. Without explicitly telling the world that economy is on the knife-edge and the FED IS CLUELESS (it confessed as much that it will be patient watching market conditions, weighing shifting conditions before deciding the next interest rate move) the wisdom-laden Li is telling Hongkongers this – DO NOT SPECULATE in property. Buy only for sole reason of affordable occupation use. Debt is very dangerous – superficially looks gradual of calm sea but in reality you are likely to get drown suddenly floating in that ocean of debt (Gundlach warned). How come in just 5 months, the pricing of new launch in HK for same near locality DIFFERS BY AN AWESOME 32%? Another tycoon gave away US$4.6 million in just 11 days of misadventure of property bet?

    En Bloc new launching in Sgpore is huge – developers trapped with massive inventory and debt ridden are under enormous to offload. Those early birds speculators will be drowned by fat discount to late home owners.

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    BK: The breakup of Bretton Woods has shown how currencies can be used to offset different productive, industrial and intellectual capacities. Greece would have a chance to move out of its woes if it had its own currency. Iceland is an example.

    @ BK
    The Bretton Woods system has been torn asunder in 1971 of fixed exchange rates when Nixon severed the link between the dollar and gold. In fact, Greece was buried in debt to a very high % of GDP, maybe over 100%. Also tax collections there were but a fraction of what they should have been due to massive evasion. But most importantly, they were in the Euro zone and could not depreciate their currency.
    So the EU forced Greece to deflate to cut wage rates to the point where they could be competitive for what exports they could sell to be able to pay back the Euro component of their debt.

    Iceland is heavily integrated into the European Union via the European Economic Area and the Schengen Agreement, but it is not a member state. Iceland was only in trouble due to an unwise political decision to guarantee the debt of failing banks and recovered much faster than Greece as I recall. EU forced austerity was an economic and political disaster for Greece. Let’s see how the EU handles Italy, the next basket case.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Yes, Currency is dependent on people’s confidence to accept it’s value in exchange for physical goods & for services rendered. But that’s only one viewpoint – an economic one!
    But looking at it from another angle. Currency is like a stored value card – the stored value allows the holder to consume at a future point in time. Pension funds are the classical examples; retiree’s liquidity preference for fixed deposits are another. But inflation or declining purchasing power were the biggest bugbear of store value attribute.
    Yet looking from another angle, currencies that doesn’t have historical stability nor a legacy of people’s confidence – it is quickly converted into hard assets of realisable value re: Foreign Property, even English Soccer Clubs. All one needs is to follow the money trail of Chinese capital flight to Vancouver, Sydney & Melbourne. Chelsea FC has a Russian oligarch owner; Leicester City, a Thai billionaire & Manchester City, Abu Dhabi’s Regent.
    Our S’pore “The Arcade” has the most competitive money changers in town. Yet their Forex rate board tells a 20/80 story ie. Less the 20% of the currencies traded have 2-way liquidity (money changers will buy foreign currencies for SG$ & vice-versa). These currencies are usually “White” countries which have a strong currency confidence with JP¥ an exception. The over 80% either have a wide spread (money changer indirectly telling you that they don’t want to buy your foreign currency for SG$ except very cheaply) or no quotes on the buy side ie. sell foreign currencies for SG$ only, not the other way around.
    This tells us that the investible universe is very limited in the global context. Blue-Chip Investments are only possible in Western Democracies. Emerging markets carry many hidden risks especially currency translation risk, Nationalisation or Capital control. That why Emerging market yields were very high while Developed Economies’ yields low.
    - Cont’d -

    BK: Hahaha, yes. It was said that bankers live in a metaphysical plane. If u reduce the financial world to a symbol; a currency, what is a currency, but confidence?
    And confidence is of course, “credence, interpretation, consent and adherence”.

    BK:
    @ Rabble-rouser

    Thanks for your usual (:. I think there is another factor at work. It is the declining confidence in the global order. Historically this shifts funds not on the basis of yield, but of preservation.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    In the Finance/Investments universe, there must be 2 modes under investment universe – either in cash or near liquidity instruments, or under invested state. Of course, investment funds preferred being fully invested because the bonus & performance incentives favour a fully invested state.
    Likewise capital preservation is either in currencies/govt treasuries or in precious metals – a 3rd element was Cryptocurrencies but we all know how it fared for capital preservation.
    But precious metals have physical holding costs, no yield & have border restrictions in moving physical holdings. Paper trade in precious metals are speculative in nature & carry no physical settlement features. And precious metal prices can be in long periods of stagnation & bearish price actions.
    Central bankers called precious metals a barbaric relic.
    Yet currencies are subjected to “money printing” – a practice which debased the value (subtle currency depreciation), reduces the purchasing power (inflation) & affects the future consumption (wealth erosion).
    What many don’t realised was that the recent excessive money printing – created rampant asset inflation, easy money process encouraged excessive debt undertaking behaviour & the lack of a risk premium in interest rate, caused excessive high risk investing for yield hungry hunters.
    This “money printing” is unsustainable because the liquidity must be provided by bonafide capital providers & savers. But a period of excesses (asset bubbles) have dried up people’s savings & the people’s psychology had shifted from a savings & frugal culture to an extremely reckless debt-infused one.
    The future is bleak because the world of debt zombies outnumber the frugal, the sensible saver & the really smart investor who preserves capital & achieved consistent ROI. The latter is smart enough to realise that one doesn’t need to be fully invested nor to remain in buy-&-hold investments in a volatile climate. In a world full of overpriced asset bubbles, he seeks value investments or simply stay in cash consuming frugally, patiently awaiting for investment bargains to emerge. A smart Investor refuses to be drawn into a YOLO or Conspicuous Consumption lifestyle. He uses debt wisely for Investments, never for consumption knowing the investment appreciation would outpaced the cost of debt. But people like that are as rare as Dodo birds.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    Mankind have reached “Peak” urban living – it will deteriorate rapidly from here on. As Globalisation recedes & global trade winds down as Austerity bites after it replaces Debt binge. Economic consumption activities will collapsed while Investment opportunities dwindled. The golden era of mega-cities would lose their lustre because the next coming wave would be huge job losses, lots of corporate restructuring, even bankruptcies & liquidation, personal bankruptcies with lots of property foreclosures.
    The end of the oil-driven Global Economy will also be a game changer. Trade routes may disappear; long distance global supply chains shrink as manufacturing relocated closer to wealthier consuming economies. Trading & value exchange only done with people & counterparties you know & trust. This is a scary future but it’s coming.
    The ones who will survive would be prodigious savers, hobby farmers & frugal minded people. Debtors & conspicuous consumers will be caught in the undertow of debt problems & inability to service debts. This scenario will happen.
    If you read Li Ka-Shing’s article, you would realised that he is a hypocrite. He bought a hotel in the New Territory & is going to carve about 50 living spaces (apartments) per floor. That’s an extreme congestion cramming so many households into a concrete structure which might not have been built to house such loads. It reveals the corrupted minds of the uber rich still bent on reaping profits off the masses selling overpriced properties. The analogy is he is converting a hotel into a chicken coop & in the process, steals their eggs from buyers.
    High rise buildings & intensive living spaces coupled with high prices paid for them is a stupid & poor Investment. The concrete structure is already subject to physical deterioration while housing such heavy loads create geotechnical loads which stresses the building further. It is also highly inefficient living.
    I reckon that the city landscape would be littered with lifeless & abandoned buildings a few decades from now as people move in search of food & water much like those Apocalyptic movies. There are too many people lulled by govts, MSM media spin & cultural & personal noise that they are impervious to the coming shifts that will greatly impact lives.

    oxygen: Asset bubble economies live a precarious life on “confidence” of bubble illusion without substance, in reality, self-delusion.
    The same warning came from Li Ka-shing who told Hongkonger of looming global gloomy dark clouds.
    If you’re going to buy a house in Hong Kong, live in it, warns tycoon Li Ka-shing as…

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  • oxygen:

    @ BK & @ Haigen-Diaz

    BOTH INSIGHTFUL THOUGHTS ARE CORRECT of relevant Bretton Woods historical perspective.

    BK: The breakup of Bretton Woods has shown how currencies can be used to offset different productive, industrial and intellectual capacities. Greece would have a chance to move out of its woes if it had its own currency….

    and

    Haigen-diaz: The Bretton Woods system has been torn asunder in 1971 of fixed exchange rates when Nixon severed the link between the dollar and gold. In fact, Greece was buried in debt to a very high % of GDP, maybe over 100%. Also tax collections there were but a fraction of what they should have been due to massive evasion. But most importantly, they were in the Euro zone and could not depreciate their currency.
    So the EU forced Greece to deflate to cut wage rates to the point where they could be competitive for what exports they could sell to be able to pay back the Euro component of their debt.

    Remember, John Connally, then US Treasury Secretary, in Nixon era of Bretton Woods operative (before the Nixon shock abandonment of the dollar-gold fixed peg) told his European counterparts in Rome this – The dollar is our currency, but it is your problem”.

    https://www.ipe.com/the-dollar-is-our-currency-but-its-your-problem/25599.fullarticle

    Nixon imposed a 10% import tariff on all imports going into US but that decision was reversed just 4 months later.

    Donald Trump – the dumbfarked arrogant “Tariff Man” he tweeted, haven’t learnt from Nixonian mistake of 1971. That is the reality in fact that the US dollar is our currency, IT REMAINS OUR PROBLEM, the shifting of burden does NOT work in the finality of inevitable outcome.

    The US can print money and pay foreigners for its own unsustainable spendthrift consumption, foreigners will use the US dollar to buy American hotels, invested in US govt bonds and listed investment. Americans will forever owes foreigners dividend, interest and working to clean toilets in hotels that these rich foreigners will enjoy of their vacation stays.

    https://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2016/04/15/remembering-1971-richard-nixon-and-tariffs-david-glasner-also-don-trump-is-a-creampuff/

    So the short-term trade imbalance and extravagant consumption will end up shifting into long-term poverty slavery of permanent indebtedness but short-term tariff has other woes – it create un-competitive jobs within US displacing cheaper foreign imports.

    to be continued.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    No worries about the disagreement. I was pointing to the Global Context of Income Inequality. You know there is a undercurrent of extreme sensitivity towards criticism about S’pore & the govt. But since you’ve already said it out loud. I concur but add the following:
    For the S’pore context. there are more inherent risks for the Arbitrage Economy:
    * The dramatic decline of the Local PME class which is in defacto, the Middle class of S’pore;
    * The loss of General Prosperity Effect since 1998 points to a loss of Income Generating Base;
    * The Arbitrage Economy is very specialised; the rewards accrued right at the top; to the govt, to tax accountants, tax advisors, corporate structure advisors, bankers, etc. The TRICKLE DOWN EFFECT is minimum, hence the huge Income Inequality;
    * The govt incentivise their own performance schemes according to their Arbitrage Economic model which skews the focus for greater effect without any Plan B in case it fails (Strengthening Income Inequality rather than addressing it); &
    * The weak electorate which allow for market inefficiencies to wreak havoc & imposed an overall high cost of living eco-system in addition to the income inequality. In addition, the GDP growth habit, the need for a 1st World facade & maintaining these structures – all contribute to an erosion of living standards, a high cost structure, imposed collections to fund greater Infrastructural Spending, etc.
    When “the arbitrage economy of tax-loophole inefficiency exploitation is fast disappearing”, this creates a huge “Funding Hole” with huge swathes of Infrastructural Spending committed & (maybe?) unfunded. The seismic reverberation could be immense.

    oxygen: MATE, HAVE TO DISAGREE WITH YOU on this call.
    On my book, the greater risks for LEE-jiapore forward is erosion/loss of income base and that must aggravate and exacerbate the distress of income inequality re-distribution. I am seeing this happening now – the arbitrage economy of tax-loophole inefficiency exploitation is fast disappearing.

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  • oxygen:

    @ BK & Haigen-Diaz

    Continuing from above, IF APPLE i-phone is manufactured in US, it will sell only in US – if at all. Already it is uncompetitive of pricing of made-in-china (& foreign supplied parts outside US as well) against Realme, Xiaomi, Oppo, Huawei inside China, India and Africa. Given economies of scale impact, these Chinese manufactured will be even more competitive of aggressive pricing against much steeper higher-priced MADE-IN-USA Apple i-phone outside US and potential of volume economics over time will even overcome US-made Apple i-phone even inside US and behind Trump’s imposition of tariff duties. Apple as a global business will be eliminated along with US tariff-sheltered jobs.

    So tariff lifted US GDP numbers and employment numbers but the real pain and consequences is NOT captured in these contemporary economic statistics but by future generations when Trump is no longer sitting in the Presidential office.

    Trump’s tariff threats, if implemented is disruptive to global economy including the US. The risks factors is now enlarged. The Chinese which negotiated its WTO entry in 2001 lives by the shattered Bretton Woods and the continued US dollar convertible as a reserve currency (meaning Americans overspends and foreigner get paid with fiat US currency of diminishing real values). Trump now wants to change the rule of his Trump’s shock, not quite dissimilar to the Nixonian shock of ripping apart the Bretton Woods agreement. Trump wants to change the rule of the game with his trade war tariff threats. The CHINESE ARE NOT STUPID FOREVER.

    They won’t buy anymore US Treasury whilst Americans lives beyond their means and wants jobs behind tariff walls displacing Chinese jobs as well. Living in deeper sovereign, corporate and individual debts leverage, Americans now have no more willing creditors UNLESS THEY PAY HIGHER AND HIGHER INTEREST on borrowing. that means more and more interest, dividends payout to foreigners and result in bigger and bigger foreign ownership of US business, real estate and in reality condemned to bondage of foreign masters. And foreigners in US-dollar debt borrowing sharing the same fate of escalating interest burden – the MARCH INTO BANKRUPTCY IS GRADUALLY and then SUDDENLY.

    The financial market might collapse when the bubbles implodes and dumbfarked property gamblers all send to the economic abattoir. And all asset class will be steeply priced down.

    What is the value of the fake asset enhancement politics scam then? Sinkies will be entrapped with no value housing bubbles, no CPF, jobless for the masses because no domestic economic sector.

    PAPpys laughing at dumbfarked peasants then?

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  • BK:

    Thank you kind Sirs for the inputs (:. Nice!

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  • Haigen-diaz:

    @ Oxygen, Rabble-rouser, BK:
    It is like my brethren indulging me with the best there is in a sumptuous buffet. Need time to savor. Lol.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    But smartphones are becoming commoditized products in the Product Life Cycle Theory. Apple simply goes against that grain because they think they can.
    But the common thinking is that the profits in hardware are dwarfed by the huge profits in the software & accessories eco-system. Think Inkjet printers, these printers are relatively cheap to buy but the ink replacement units costs a fortune to replace.
    And Made-In-China phones & tablets can’t download certain functions & programs because of no royalty payments to software developers or fear of copyrighted infringements. How did I know? I bought a Made-In-China tablet – there’s a lot of downloading issues which crippled it’s use & functionality. In the end, I had to buy another one from an established product manufacturer instead.

    oxygen: IF APPLE i-phone is manufactured in US, it will sell only in US – if at all. Already it is uncompetitive of pricing of made-in-china (& foreign supplied parts outside US as well) against Realme, Xiaomi, Oppo, Huawei inside China, India and Africa. Given economies of scale impact, these Chinese manufactured will be even more competitive of aggressive pricing against much steeper higher-priced MADE-IN-USA Apple i-phone outside US and potential of volume economics over time will even overcome US-made Apple i-phone even inside US and behind Trump’s imposition of tariff duties. Apple as a global business will be eliminated along with US tariff-sheltered jobs.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    IF THE COMMODITIZED CHINESE-MADE smartphone has functionality use issues as you found out, then they won’t sell in US (EU/Down Under etc etc), then the threatened imposition of Trump’s tariff has no effect on the sales of Chinese made digital phone.

    The impression I got is that China-made i-phone sells very well in EU, India, Africa for its cheapness and relevant functionality. Perhaps I was wrong of internet read?

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    Ha-ha-ha-ha! Haven’t you read that a whole host of Western websites are banned in China? Even Google Search is banned in China. Click the link below to read:
    https://startuplivingchina.com/list-websites-apps-blocked-china/
    As a result, Google’s Android system for Chinese phones lack certain features including Play Store – a window to lots of downloadable apps. The Chinese Smartphone manufacturers have to overlay their own software over Google’s Android O/S. That’s why China had to have their copycat versions of Western websites in Chinese-language medium. I even heard Netflix & Amazon Prime can’t download streaming movies on Chinese smartphones for fear of copyrighted infringements.
    Plus there’s a suspicion that Chinese smartphones have spyware embedded.
    Click the link below to read:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/lifehacker.com/avoid-huawei-zte-and-other-chinese-smartphones-1823010820/amp
    3rd world countries like India, Africa probably use Chinese smartphones like Status Symbols but with limited functionality. Probably limited to accessing their own streaming websites of Bollywood movies, online games, gambling websites & locally produced porn.
    Apple iPhone is a niche product with distinct snob appeal. But the overwhelming smartphone eco-system is Google’s Android O/S with their full suite of Chrome browser, Play Store, Google Maps, Gmail, YouTube, etc. Google (Alphabet) is the stronger player in the smartphone market. Apple happens to be more visible but the premium pricing policy for iPhone is stupid while their closed O/S eco-system doesn’t attract many users due to lack of choice in apps & alternative programs (such as voice recognition activated software – Siri is street’s inferior to Google’s Assistant, Amazon’s Alexa but probably better than Microsoft’s Cortana). The big money is in the Smartphone software/website/apps eco-system – Google win hands down because they’re churning lots of Internet advertising monies for ad placements. FaceBook is 2nd but they have privacy problems lately. Apple is so far behind that they’re not even significant. Internet Advertising is killing MSM Advertising worldwide because advertisers are shifting their $ Adspend over to the Internet. That is why SPH & MediaCorp are the dying icons of MSM.

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