Political Opposition in Singapore

Former NMP Calvin Cheng

A bit late to comment on Tan Cheng Bock’s entry into opposition politics but here is my take:

1) Have seen international media calling TCB a political heavyweight. Also saw Cherian George’s post opining that TCB might inspire other PAP chaps to breakaway.

I think this overstates TCB’s importance.

Yes, he did very well as a Presidential candidate and lost narrowly, and this was in fact what added to his (deluded) hubris.

The Presidential elections cannot be compared to any GE. Voters know that the President has no material impact on their daily lives and bread-and-butter issues. In fact, because of the mainly ceremonial row that the President plays, most people can expect to hardly hear from or see him/her. A GE is an entirely different kettle of fish.

In the final analysis, when TCB re-enters real politics, he will be a 78-year old former MP who has not been in real party politics for 12 years.

Also, TCB should remember that he ran not only as TCB but as TCB the PAP man. We will see how much of that is his personal charisma, and how much of that is the PAP’s.

The people who have joined him are also elderly PAP cadres.

This is NOT the split in the PAP that many think would bring about a genuinely strong opposition.

TCB is not a political heavyweight.

At the most, as I saw in another comment, he is a welterweight.

2) Threat to the PAP

Every time a new opposition figure emerges, be it TCB or Lim Team or whoever, there is some excitement that the PAP will finally be taken down.

This is logically wrong.

In the medium to long run, the threat of any new opposition force threatens not the PAP, but whoever is the STRONGEST OPPOSITION CURRENTLY.

Let me explain:

In the short run, because of dominance of the PAP, the opposition can be ‘united’ insofar as avoiding three-way fights.

But there will come a day when the strongest opposition party will want to be an alternative Government. As Pritam said, the WPs mid-term aim is to capture 1/3 of seats; what is left unspoken is in the long-term, the WP has to aim to be an alternative Government.

Sooner or later, even if every opposition party slowly chips away at PAP’s dominance, three-way fights will have to happen.

Opposition unity at this stage is unlikely. Any opposition unity will only be a marriage-of-convenience that will not happen unless there is a national crisis like that in Malaysia. And even then, after they take down their common enemy, such marriages of convenience will be fragile and cannot last. One party will want to emerge as the dominant force. The WP knows this the best.

The party that is threatened by any new political force like TCB in the middle to long run is therefor not the PAP, but the WP.

They are most likely to be the second party in a two-party system.

In a Westminster, first past the post system like ours, when a viable opposition emerges, it will take the form of two major parties taking turns to rule.

In a nutshell, the opposition at the moment is competing with each other to see who will be number 2, not with the PAP to be number 1.

3) I think TCB will suffer a humiliating defeat at the next GE and spend his retirement years in ignominy.

I predict the Opposition will make gains, but it will only be the WP that does so, provided that they don’t come off too badly in their lawsuit.

Again, I reiterate that in a first past the post voting system, opposition votes will eventually coalesce around a second big party.

This is the inherent logic of elections.

 

* Facebook post by Calvin Cheng.

 

 

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25 Responses to “Political Opposition in Singapore”

  • patriot of TUMASIK:

    Before I see it as it is, I would like to comment on the picture of Calvin…That is a Masterpiece Reminder of a B….. with an evil eye now dead…

    Now as I see it…Doc is or was a PAP man for the people and the Evil b….. saw it in him to rope him to deliver a single ward and he did it UNDEFEATED with the Highest Vote garnered…

    Doc was vociferous with his presence in Parliament and was willing to pick on Blue eye apple polishers and Boys of the s*ake eyes CON-master

    I personally will dare say that NS boys admire Doc and his practice as a village doctor in Ama Keng and gave 70-80% of their votes in PE that he lost to a White Horse Sire

    Need to say more Calvin, with a similar s*ake-eye??? (such man are dangerous) I dare Calvin to garner a team(GRC) or a TOP PAP man to contest against Doc when the time comes…Calvin will not only lose his deposit but his pants too on a single seat hence a GRC for him ie if the PAP thinks he is good enough an apple polisher

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  • Is this stupid shit ?:

    The famous quote that a shit is always a shit. So is this shit still around spewing his shit shamelessly. Many think that NMPs became so on their own merits but when this shit appears, all doubts evaporated. PAP brownosers, bootlickers or polampa n now not just PAP gorilla has bred a pack of them bur to the must repressed imbercile needing a strangling hold to hold it up. n grapevine has it that the late v3 n v4 r gorilla fart worms n the dynasty which lauli painfully n shrewdly but more appropriately evilliy manupulate the weaknesses, greed n mentally weaklings established is noticeably dwindled with the increasing presence of gorilla farts worms n suffocating the weak dragonfly.

    it wouldn’t be ing this shit has been gorillarised. A shit will always be a shit.

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  • rukidding:

    Another “useless” MP that “slipped thru the system”,..only to be found ” close to” the same standard as Cynical and PC Ong !

    I don’t know what to say ???

    Which amongst the three is more “stupid n Cunning” ?

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  • MorBowling:

    When the result of the next GE is announced, expect this MF Chiu Cheng Bugger to disappear into the sunset with his fiacking tail between his legs. Take a closer look at his Sneaky eyes…..macham like those of his mentor Lee Kayu!

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  • First Thing First:

    Remove the PAP first, the rest of changes will fall in place.

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  • No Man;s Person:

    What Have You Done For Me Lately?

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  • The Rot Started From The Top:

    How much are you being paid to write bad about oppositions, Calvin? We know you are trying to cause confusion into the opposition camps. You can fool us once, but you can’t fool us forever. Check it out Calvin, your look already revealed to us your a devil in disguise.

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  • opposition dude:

    Calvin Cheng forgets there was still quite a bit of anger with the PAP when the PE rolled around. Do remember we also had the Punggol East BE that same year when good old Palmer couldn’t keep his missile in his pants if you know what I mean.

    So Calvin says Dr Tan will fade into the sunset just like all those other parties set up before PSP. I’m ok with that since everyone is entitled to his opinion. However, should PSP actually manage to gain good support enough to actually get elected then we all must really give credit to Dr Tan and his colleagues for their hard work.

    As it stands now we only know Dr Tan has set up a party with some colleagues, we do not know what plans he has. Who knows Dr Tan might spring a surprise or 2 in the next few months?

    And anyway, what is wrong if PSP does grow to become dominant? A good number of voters are disappointed with WP as it is now so if PSP does become the defacto #2 opposition party in Singapore it would give WP a real good run for its money. It would also cause WP to up their game so as not to fall behind. And that, I think, is a good thing.

    At the end of the day if another party does rise up and become strong enough to challenge PAP I don’t see any problem with that.

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  • TCBA The Come-Back Angel 夢幻隊隊員:

    TCBA Tan Cheng Bock Adrian
    - The Come-Back Angel

    He and his Party of Progressives will certainly not win the next election, i.e. capture enough seats to form the next government. Hell, he might even be dead by the time the Party contested its fifth or sixth election and it still hasn’t become in charge. We accept that.

    We accepted this fact right from Day One, when PSP was formed.

    Remember this however:
    the ball has been set in motion,
    a movement has been started.

    Momentum is gathering and will go on gathering steam.
    Change – real change – is underway.

    Watch out, Stunted & Deformed Face翹面(Kieow Bin) Calvin, your party affiliation puts you in the direct line of the People’s fire & fury. Your time is more than overdue. So’s more facial readjustments/manipulations to come for you, just you wait, boy, woof!

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  • TCBA The Come-Back Angel 夢幻隊隊員:

    天令不可违【杀无赦】

    Watch out, Loong, we are coming squarely for you, we are coming to contest AMK GRC, it’s an all or nothing!

    Your Party may remain – even after we’ve kicked your butt out of Parliament – in government after GE2019, and you may act according to counsel from your inner circle of advisors (especially cajoling from your biggest j*n*) and go on to contest a by-election somewhere following an ‘evacuation order’ on that/those already voted-in PAP MP/MPs, but remember, TCBA will also be courageous enough to vacate his AMK GRC seat to fight it out again with you, for he, the PSP, the entire nation is ready to go after you. Wherever you scram and bundle yourself off to.

    Till the ends of the end!
    虽远必诛。

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  • 我黨為【總之不想再見到人民行動•黨】:

    THREE “ABC” ASPIRATIONS OF THE SG VOTER

    1. Anyone But Calvin

    2. Anyone But Cheng

    3. Anyone But Calvin Cheng (ok, ABCc, sorry, hehee)

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  • Official Millionaires Scam:

    Calvin (Devil-Face) Cheng,

    You talk like big time professional political analyst. You are not. That’s the fact.

    You are trying to break the Opposition unity and pitch WP to fight against PSP. Good try but too amateurish. WP is not going to fall for it.

    At this point in time, nobody, not even the best analyst in the PAP camp can safely predict the outcome of the next GE, unless it is being fixed behind the scene, which is not entirely impossible, though not probable.

    So, stop blowing your hot airs.

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  • oxygen:

    NEVER IRRITATES THE AGITATED PEASANTS, their voting behavior after that is UNPREDICTABLE.

    NAJIB FOUND THAT OUT TO THIS SURPRISE. Macron got the electric shock of Yellow Vest rebuke. That spread to India. Peasants are no longer meek of their discontent. Ray Dalio, CEO of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund manager says disgruntled politics swing to the extreme nationalist economic populism right is the biggest danger to global economy.

    POLITICS HAVE INVADED ECONOMICS – and that is even swinging in Merkel’s Germany – which no longer so willing to host economic refugees from easter Europe, Middle East and Africa and is beginning to take a hardline against Chinese economic hegemony in Europe.

    Calvin Cheng’s analytics is shallow of the political and economic nexus – specifically PAPpys decades of failed economic management. His facile narrative ignores realities sweeping the world which even top fund managers meeting in the world economic forum in Avos this year acknowledge of geopolitical risks which LEE-jiapore can only watch helplessly.

    Davos 2019: the thing that scares hedge fund titan Ray Dalio the most

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/davos-2019-thing-scares-hedge-fund-titan-ray-dalio-095020780.html

    Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates :What scares me the most longer-term is that we have limitations to monetary policy, which is our most valuable tool, at the same time as we have greater political and social antagonism.

    and this in 1987

    Why the Manager of the World’s Biggest Hedge Fund is Afraid of Populism

    http://fortune.com/2017/01/18/ray-dalio-davos-populism/

    Ray Dalio : it’s time to stop listening to Janet Yellen speak, and start watching Donald Trump’s tweets………In 2017 and perhaps beyond, the most powerful force driving the market will be populism……..Populism is the No. 1 economic issue that market participants should be watching, more important than central banks,….I want to be loud and clear—populism scares me.

    And look how much the world has changed since Ray Dalio’s warning. The Fed has lost control over financial markets. Equities and bond market lost their correlations – we saw equities rebound (risks on) and bond market rally driving yields down (risks off), and falling US dollar (presumption of interest rate hike paused or as measure of market confidence) and gold rocket up on Friday in New York (safe haven), an overwhelming overhang of pessimism in Davos.

    Calvin, where are you?

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  • 西北杜郎:

    The look of him can tell everyone he grown up eating grass.

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  • oxygen:

    Ooops, typo error

    oxygen: and this in 1987

    should be read as

    oxygen: and this in 2017

    was thinking back to 1987 October 19 global stock market crash.

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  • LIONS:

    If you dont understand what *stoopid* means,just look at CALVIN CHENG.
    what a blinking idiot!

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  • oxygen:

    Since Brexit in Britain in June 2016 and Trump’s stunning defeat of establishment’s hot favorite bet, Hilary Clinton same November, Ray Dalio’s warning in January 2017 is right on the dot.

    POPULISM TIDE SWEEPS GLOBALISATION (and central bankers) the world have never seen. It is UNSTOPPABLE.

    Macron done a political earthquake in France in May – he was AN APPRENTICE on the books of Donald Trump characterisation in reality television show.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39791036

    Najib got wiped out by his mentor in May 2018.

    Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) slumping to 27%, the party’s worst showing in the state since 1966 and a drop of 11 percentage points since Hesse last went to the polls in 2013.

    Traditional establishment voters deserted mainstream politics in droves – caught all politicians and pundits by total surprise.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/merkel-suffers-another-election-setback-key-german-state-of-hesse

    RAY DALIO WAS RIGHT IN JANUARY 2017 – the concept of establishment vaporized into DISINTEGRATION.

    Trump made an absolute mess of governance (shut down) and economic upheavel, is there a SINGLE DEMONSTRATION anywhere against his 5-year old ways of unpresidential and public behavior DESPITE SO MANY OF INNER SANCTUM now got jailed for criminal law offences? Trump surrounded himself with a nest of vipers ranging from liars to criminals and sane responsible ones like Tillerson, Sessions, and Mathis all consigned into dustbin at Trump’s order?

    TRUMP IS BENDING TO POPULISM AND SO IS HIS COTERIE OF VIPERS IN TOW.

    Politics is reduced to this simplicity -Bending to populism of groundswell angry politics demand (invading the economic space now), OR YOU BE THROWN INTO THE DUSTBIN.

    ENOUGH IS ENOUGH – no more space for groaning pleas from failed politics ONE MORE CHANCE and WORST STILL FAILED ECONOMICS to accompany as almost always the case (except Merkel as example), apprentice will sweep in – VOTERS WANT CHANGE AND THEY WON’T HESITATE TO USE THE election CANE TO FORCE CHANGE TRANSFORMATION they demanded.

    Calvin Cheng does not know of these realities? He should ask Ray Dalio before opening his silly mouth.

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  • oxygen:

    HUNGRY PEOPLE DON’T THINK deeper before they vote. Believe it or not, the BUTTER VS GUN model of macroeconomic thesis has now invaded the political sphere. Ray Dalio said that political activism have invaded the economic domain BUT I ACTUALLY THINKS THE CAUSATION IS BOTH WAY AND MUTUALLY REINFORCING.

    So in extension of that hypothesis, if there is NO BUTTER (read food on the table) voters will bring GUN (vote the b*stard politicians out, the lot indiscriminately) out at the election booth on polling date. Political manifesto counts for nothing. Either there is butter (food) on my table OR ELSE politically we shall extinct you into the dustbin of history. No complex calculus is needed – we saw that at Brexit, Macron, Trump, Merkel in that BUTTER-vs-GUN contest.

    I am betting (sure win one) that Morris in Down Under will be the next political corpse thrown into the bin in the election to come soon. It will be landslide too with Morris got buried in the rubble at the bottom of the avalanche.

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  • Merobok:

    Calvin has not been in the limelight of late! Naturally, his self-esteem is down and needs a prep -up…so in order to impress his bosses he needs to spew some nonsense with the hope that he may still be available for the GE!

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  • Python 5:

    oxygen: NEVER IRRITATES THE AGITATED PEASANTS, their voting behavior after that is UNPREDICTABLE.

    oxygen, I am not shooting you down.

    But you can talk about Msians, France, Americans, Germans or Arab spring.
    But you can never underestimate the level of stupidity the typical 70% singaporean has.

    You think the political scene here can change overnight like Msia???
    prove it to me and us all the 30%.

    don’t forget:
    The traits of the 70%: SHALLOW, GUTLESS, COMPLACENT and DEBT RIDDEN.

    I will savor and relish when all the DEBTS, DIVORCES, DEPRESSION, DESTITUTIONS AND DEATHS overwhelm the 70%.

    Because the 70% are WAY TOO STUPID to not even realise that they are THAT STUPID.

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  • Ku niangs will be ku niangs:

    @ Python5

    I’ll second that. Especially those in the realm of Mediacorpse channel 8 viewership.

    Python 5: oxygen, I am not shooting you down.

    But you can talk about Msians, France, Americans, Germans or Arab spring.
    But you can never underestimate the level of stupidity the typical 70% singaporean has.

    You think the political scene here can change overnight like Msia???
    prove it to me and us all the 30%.

    don’t forget:
    The traits of the 70%: SHALLOW, GUTLESS, COMPLACENT and DEBT RIDDEN.

    I will savor and relish when all the DEBTS, DIVORCES, DEPRESSION, DESTITUTIONS AND DEATHS overwhelm the 70%.

    Because the 70% are WAY TOO STUPID to not even realise that they are THAT STUPID.

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  • Notanothernameicannotuse:

    If tcb is a welterweight, what is Calvin Cheng? I don’t know why we give his opinion any notice in the first place.

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  • Another waste:

    Calvin’s parents wasted their money on his education.

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  • Harder Truths:

    You forgot $G locals have no balls.

    When the economy fails and pappies run off to foreign countries and FT return home while $G is run by criminal gangs, $G locals will be still standing there with big posters saying “Pappies – we love you – please come back”

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  • This focker spews nonsense, if no good, he wont be writing bad about TCB, he is a real threat.

    The fixing has begun..

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