Authorities may have to do something but no good options

Winter is here and the White Walkers are expected to land at Changi Int’l or the port any time soon.

S’pore’s recent gloomy economic data

— Electronics exports, a major driver of Singapore’s growth over the past two years, saw their biggest decline in more than a decade, hit by a global downturn in the semiconductor industry, data showed last week.

— Overall exports in May declined the most in more than three years as shipments to China slumped.

— The number of retrenchments rose 40% in the first quarter of 2019 from a year ago, driven by cuts in the manufacturing sector, according to official data released this month.

The authorities have to act if there’s going to be a GE this yr. Problem is that there are no good options.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore closely tracks data and there is a growing chance it may ease its currency-focused monetary policy for the first time in nearly three years.

Some say the central bank could even ease outside of its bi-annual meeting schedule as it did in January 2015 when it sought to counter deflationary pressures amid slowing growth.

But a more accommodative stance won’t be enough to reinvigorate the economy, said CIMB Private Banking economist, Mr Song Seng Wun, as a weaker Singapore dollar will not necessarily push up exports.

“Singapore businesses won’t suddenly become so competitive that we are going to be selling a lot more of our goods and services,” he said.

The finance ministry also has limited space to help given already-low tax rates, along with numerous incentives and cost offsets and an expansionary budget this year.

Further stimulus could come in the form of tax cuts and more rebates but factory operators aren’t waiting for the government to come to their rescue.

Reuters

Reuters also reported Mr Sam Chee Wah, general manager at Feinmetall Singapore, whose products are used for testing semiconductor wafers, as saying

[H]e’s been bracing for a tech slowdown since last year – holding back hiring and major capital investments. He’s now considering offering discounts or delayed payment terms to customers.

With US-China hostilities showing no signs of abating, Singapore will have to weather the storm for some time to come.

We are not out of the woods yet,” said Ms Sian Fenner, lead economist at Oxford Economics. “We haven’t seen the worst.”:

— Winter is here, how big will the anti-PAP vote be?

— S’pore: the canary in the coalmine/ Is the ground sweet for the PAP?

How 4G leaders going to get 65% of the popular vote ( the pass mark for bragging rights that they have the people’s mandate)?

Remember

— Another reason why ground is not sweet for the PAP.

And there’s the promised 2 percentage points GST rise coming possibly, when the economy’s in a recession. This when the PAP govt has huge budget surpluses.

Next week, will forecast what the PAP govt will do.

 

Cynical Investor

Cynical Investor blogs at Thoughts of a Cynical Investor

 

 

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48 Responses to “Authorities may have to do something but no good options”

  • no end:

    The “give one chicken wing, take back whole chicken” has oredy begun.
    on news wef yesterday– Power rates to go up from july to september..by 6.4 pc..
    we can expect a $5 increase in our monthly bill.
    i guess we can expect more ‘horrors’ to come soon.
    these vampires are never satisfied.
    first the sweeteners then the bitter pill.
    #*&$#@!%

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  • copy and paste:

    anything new?

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  • TUCK WAN:

    Elections very near. Most probably end of 2019. Have ” U made up your mind”
    Good.

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  • oxygen:

    WINDY HAPPY CONTRADICTIONS or fantasy speculative conjectures?

    Headline read : Authorities may have to do something but no good options

    and this

    CI:Next week, will forecast what the PAP govt will do.

    No good options but still can invent “strategies” in that void of good options?

    The conclusion contradicts the headline read!

    Or is it more CI’s party propaganda spouting but empty of economic substance?

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  • another slew of hikes:

    on CNA news trailer just …
    City Gas also announced 1.6 percent price increases.
    what’s next?
    water tariffs or transport fares going up.

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  • Asd:

    Cyclic Investor you write as if you warrant buffet.

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  • Harder Truths:

    FT do not have to worry.
    They just make themselves cheaper and faster (not better).
    No problem.

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  • oxygen:

    DAVID STOCKMAN IS NOT WRONG in labeling Gonad Trump as the “delusional madman” in the Oval Office who will destroy the US (and the global) economy.

    https://www.ccn.com/donald-trump-delusional-destroy-us-economy-david-stockman/

    Trump might have been taking his medicine before showing up in Osaka today. He abandoned the MAD doctrine of tariff escalation in trade war dispute with China. MAD means mutual assured destruction yet got no concession from China in return.

    He must know that beneath the surface, US economy is in dire straits – a fiscal stimulus wasted of good outcome after a decade of monetary policy stimulus failed to take up the us economy up the self-driving trajectory. OECD told the world that CBs have run out of ammunition.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/central-banks-have-run-out-of-ammunition-says-oecd-angel-gurria.html

    Fed sucked in a lot of toxic sub-prime mortgage that can’t be unloaded. QT failed so soon after commencement. Much of EU is back to negative interest rate. Draghi’s famous “whatever it takes” threat vaporize into utter failure. For the first time in a long long time, bond rise alongside equities – financial market is gambling between risks taking and fleeing to safety. Trump’s tirade against allies and China leaves no friends distinguishable from enemy.

    He wants sanction against Iranian oil exports without exception. XJP can practically tells him to go and get farked. Chinese oil supply largely depend on Iranian crude for its transportation and economy.

    Even the Saudi was thinking of exporting oil and get paid in Yuan. Countries are now developing non-US$ settlement mechanism for global trade. Without the US dollar dominance, US can no longer depends on foreigners buying it currency and bonds in crisis.

    Without foreign buying of US treasury, who is buying US bonds to fund its govt deficit?

    CBs from Russia, China even Indonesia, Philippines are buying gold, not US treasury. Uncle sam is financially broke, there is no more creditors.

    how more dire can the situation gets if another gfc hits us and the world?

    IT WILL BE A GLOBAL CRASH BECAUSE NO PONZI SCHEME OF SUB-PRIME CRISIS CAN BE UNWIND GRADUALLY.

    PAPpys got solution for this???

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  • oxygen:

    IN THIS DIRE STRAITS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC TURMOIL made worst by the stupidity of TRUMP trade war against Mexico, Canada, EU, Japan, even India, China and threaten to include Vietnam, I would say that no CB or collection of CBs can come to any rescue of any meaningful hope or dream of survival outcome IF ANOTHER GFC SCALE TURMOIL ERUPTS.

    If PAPpypolitics/PAPpynomics invents one rescue package, it must be another of its usual electoral vote buying lie – just like the Merdeka Package.

    Remember a highly experienced longest serving EU leader once said this -

    Mr Juncker has never hidden his view that the compromises and deals being worked out in EU meetings or leaders or ministers need be protected from public scrutiny, by lies if necessary.

    “When it becomes serious, you have to lie,” he said.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10874230/Jean-Claude-Juncker-profile-When-it-becomes-serious-you-have-to-lie.html

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  • Lee Choon Sing:

    Singaporeans will create many excuses to vote for them :

    1. In good times : pap!
    2. In bad times : better keep pap or things get worse! Die ah!

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  • opposition dude:

    Election will probably be in August or September since the Merdekas are getting their packages in July. Must make sure the whole bunch get the “goodies” first and feel shiok shiok before you announce the GE a few months later mah.

    The useless 4G does not need 65% of the vote lah, you give them something in the 50% range and they will still declare it a victory but not a strong mandate only. Stroke man would be far more concerned if the unexpected happened and something like 3 GRCs or more lost, it would give him a whole lot more to do to win those seats back.

    Like I have mentioned numerous times, PAP needs to be shown very clearly in an election that we are unhappy. As long as they don’t lose too many of their people they will take it as business as usual and continue letting in even more non Singaporeans and making life even harder as we head into the next decade.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    oxygen: how more dire can the situation gets if another gfc hits us and the world?
    IT WILL BE A GLOBAL CRASH BECAUSE NO PONZI SCHEME OF SUB-PRIME CRISIS CAN BE UNWIND GRADUALLY. PAPpys got solution for this???

    @ Oxyen:
    Trump is out of his league in trying to outfox President Xi Jinping of China during the G20 summit. Xi will dance the tango with Trump and continue a strategy of continued negotiations and delays without concluding a trade agreement until the 2020 elections. Then China will have a different team to deal with and conclude a better trade deal with a Democratic President. More delay tactics as they wait out Trump’s presidency. Same thing Kim is doing (actually, by now I believe it’s what everyone is doing).

    There are no signs that Trump’s tariffs have brought about any changes in Chinese trade policy. Instead, it looks like fierce domestic pressure by hurting US companies is causing Trump to change his own trade practices and to climb down vis-a-vis Huawei. However, he lifted them solely as a bargaining chip to secure Chinese promises to buy some American agricultural products. Thus, Trump is by his own criteria jeopardizing US national security in exchange for money payment.

    China’s trade surpluses are held in trade currencies and reinvested in their trading partner’s home markets. In other words, they finance the mountain of debt that’s building in Europe and America. Right now a diminished increasingly irascible US is navigating this rocky fiscal road having already used its spare tire in the 2008 financial crisis. China has a US$ 4 trillion spare waiting in the trunk and they are already reaching for it – and you know that money’s not going to go to the bankers – it’s going to be spent on infrastructure and jobs with an eye on the future. Europe mixed bag that it is – will muddle along.

    Past Fed boards have been a mix of hawks and doves, creative problem solvers and orthodox thinkers. Today’s Fed doesn’t have the spark. They are almost all Trump appointees, chosen by conservative think tanks for their affection for the Taylor rule. This isn’t the Fed board for troubled times with Powell now ‘cowed’ by Trump. The dual mandate may take a back seat to inflation fears, and there may not be the creativity that QE can offer.

    Best bet is to make sure you’ve got 2-4 years of savings to wait this one out – if it comes -and hope the human instinct of using war to pull itself of dire financial straits doesn’t manifest. In the next precarious one & half years we will need serious humane humans running the planet – We’ll find out if this is a problem when it becomes a problem for the PAPpys.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Con’d-
    The securities markets of today aren’t the markets of yesterday. If you were asked to describe the equity market of 2008, it would be 80% major markets, and a smattering of alternative market players which were just approaching critical mass. Today, we’re over the Rubicon. Major exchanges are no longer associations, and are owned by foreign interests. There are now dozens of competing market venues, with varying degrees of transparency. In fact, this is by design: many of these new venues are designed for dark pool trading invisible to the markets.

    World leaders need to wake up and realize that Trump is a destabilizing force and needs to be contained. And I very much hope that the American people will do the right thing and vote this man out of office in 2020. If they do not, we all lose.

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  • TruBlu:

    look at them!
    they look more like cult member$.

    “PAP” = Prosperity Association of PAPple.

    WTF! CRAZY MONKEYS.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Cont’d

    In any trade war-disrupting world markets and economies with ad hoc, impertinent and manic policies – the nations that accumulates more (taxable) wealth VIA FOREIGN TRADE wins, and some nations go bankrupt by spending their existing wealth, plus borrowed money using their existing privately owned taxable wealth as collateral for Government loans, to pay for their nation’s government activities lose! Are we near the next stock market major adjustment? Are we near the downturn in housing properties? Are retirement incomes failing to keep up with inflation? Maybe sooner than we think.

    Any one of these can trigger higher inflation, negative growth, loss of jobs and economic shrinkage which we will be facing before end of the year…

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    S’pore Economy is at the crossroads – either pathway leading to the following:
    * Unsustainability – GDP growth-at-all-costs reliant on Population Expansion & Globalization process which can’t be sustained;
    * Geopolitical & Economic Irrelevance – Geopolitical tensions, technological breakthroughs, disruptions & discontinuities & Demographics.

    S’pore’s economic growth is predicated on continually expanding 2 basic factors of economic resources re: economic inputs: (1) increasing cheap labour workforce/expanding foreign expertise & (2) attracting cheap capital/enticing wealth parking. But S’pore’s economic input growth factor have created the following problems:
    1. Congestion – Infrastructure & Public Services;
    2. High Cost of Living;
    3. High housing cost; &
    4. High External Debts.
    Bear in mind, S’pore Economy has NO primary resource economy ie. No mineral wealth, no oil & gas riches, no agriculture/food production. Neither does S’pore have a significant manufacturing base [Secondary Industries] eg. China’s control over global manufacturing chains as well as advanced manufacturing economies like Germany, Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan.
    After 1998 ACC, S’pore actually morphed into a Post-Manufacturing Economy dealing more with financial services & intermediary business servicing. In truth, S’pore financial & business services can only extract between low-to-medium margins from the value-adding chain. Meaning that S’pore is only a price-taker, not a price-setter in the global economy, a mediocre economic player.
    S’pore’s saving grace is only the SG$ stable currency value amidst a currency war! You see, most currencies are trade-weighted in value whereas SG$ is investment-weighted similar to HK$, Swiss Francs, etc. Add in the favourable tax regime & casinos, one can see the implications of money flows into a corporate tax haven, wealth management & money laundering.
    But an investment-weighted currency brings in excessive investment & capital inflows. The side-effects are an extremely overinflated property & stock market; a high cost of living eco-system & a huge influx of foreigners hoping to earn the high value SG$.
    But all these are highly dependent on the health of Global Trading Economy ie. the exchange of real goods & services in the marketplace.
    The trade wars, currency wars, turmoils & actual hostilities can create a lot of “noise” in the global marketplace.
    S’pore is still good but only for the short-term re: HK protests benefits S’pore temporarily until the protest subsides or China takes action. US Fed dovish outlook for rates releases downward pressures on the stockmarket & on debtors.
    - Cont’d -

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    - Cont’d -
    You see, S’pore’s configured but very narrow Competitive Advantage can still reap quick profits from short-term issues like global instability & need for safe havens. But longer term S’pore faces serious headwinds:
    * our Demographics are ageing – the energy levels are weaker, health poorer;
    * High cost structure is an investment-deterrent;
    * Risk of high inflation from oil shocks, food shortages, water supply issues;
    * Wealth & capital destruction on a grand scale – people’s prosperity getting worse over time re: HDB lease waterfall, wealth transfer schemes like COE, development charges in property, etc;
    * S’pore’s hidden high inflationary environment or conversely, high depreciation of the SG$. A bowl of fish-ball noodles doubles in price within 1-2 decades while wages remained stagnant for the same period. Go figure that!; &
    * Govt GLCs & SWFs don’t operate on ROI & capital efficient basis – a lot of monies “lost in translation” – Wealth creation or more appropriate, Wealth Destruction?

    In addition, S’porean politicians are stuck with old, rehashed policies unable to confront the future. For example, we’re inside the Knowledge Economy well into the 3rd decade. Yet the S’pore govt still stubbornly adhere to their elitist Meritocracy Policy & academic exam-defined status. S’pore’s educational system should have trained an army of coding experts & technologically inclined workforce but we’ve missed that opportunity! Look at China – a strong player in the Smartphones & 5G mobile technology & where are we? Nowhere to be brutally frank. The PAP have failed the people! Wake up!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen Diaz

    Delusional madman finally slumber from his deep-freezed stupidity – he was worried that XJP won’t attend the G20 Osaka threatening even more tariff for possible “non-attendance”. Hilarious! He discovered belatedly that in Chinese mind – no table means no negotiation.

    Haigen-Diaz: Trump is out of his league in trying to outfox President Xi Jinping of China during the G20 summit.

    XJP promised to buy more US agri-produce all along, no real new concession there. Idiot slapped his own face.

    Haigen-Diaz: Trump.. climb down vis-a-vis Huawei. He…jeopardizing US national security in exchange for money payment.

    Fed still has doves and hawks but buried under a mountain of failed economic policies and Trump’s tantrum throwing disrupting financial market stability. Fed is driving mostly blindfold trying to avoid a crash.

    Haigen-Diaz: Past Fed boards have been a mix of hawks and doves, creative problem solvers and orthodox thinkers. Today’s Fed doesn’t have the spark

    IF TRUMP BENT LAW TO DEMOTE POWELL, FINANCIAL MARKET IS GOING TO CANE HIM BRUTALLY. He knows he can’t carry out his threat.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen Diaz

    YOU ARE DEAD RIGHT OF THIS OBSERVATION also noted by Jim Cramer at CNBC.

    Cramer: ‘The real world is much worse than the stock market indicates’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/21/cramer-the-real-world-is-much-worse-than-the-stock-market-indicates.html

    ASSET PRICES ARE ALL BUBBLY.

    Satyajit Das from Project Syndicate is a former banker who now lives in Sydney, Australia warned of this.

    The world needs shock therapy

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-world-needs-shock-therapy-20190629-p522i6.html

    He warned -

    Sayajit Das : Investors seem strangely content with this situation. Indeed, bad economic news is now taken as good news, since it presages more central bank easing.

    This is unsustainable. The boost provided by each injection of monetary stimulus is decreasing, even as the US Federal Reserve and its developed-world peers are reaching the limits of their ability to act. Wealth gains are ephemeral and contingent on central bank support never being withdrawn.

    Sooner or later, the divergence between the real economy and artificially inflated asset prices will have to be reconciled.

    For years, policymakers have hoped that time and traditional measures would restore normal growth and inflation. But repeating measures deployed over more than a decade isn’t suddenly going to result in a different outcome.

    Radical restructure needed

    which then brings this wisdom advice from another insightful mind in the same weblink.

    Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa’s novel “The Leopard” : If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change

    WITHOUT DRASTICALLY CHANGING LEE-JIAPORE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AFTER THE NEXT EELECTION, MY EASIEST MONEY BET IS LEE-JIAPORE IS GONE.

    CI talk of strategy forecast forward is fantasy dreamland hallucination.

    CI : Next week, will forecast what the PAP govt will do.

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  • oxygen:

    @ No end

    LEE-JIAPORE power stations are mainly fired by natural gas and natural gas prices are near its 20-year low.

    Energy retailers in LEE-JIAPORE is said to offer consumers up to 15% price discount if anyone signs on.

    WHO IS MAKING EXCESSIVE PROFITS at the expense of the daft 70% consumers?

    OZ natural gas producers share prices are lingering near their 52-weeks low.

    WTF IS GOING ON?

    no end: The “give one chicken wing, take back whole chicken” has oredy begun.
    on news wef yesterday– Power rates to go up from july to september..by 6.4 pc..
    we can expect a $5 increase in our monthly bill.
    i guess we can expect more ‘horrors’ to come soon.
    these vampires are never satisfied.
    first the sweeteners then the bitter pill.
    #*&$#@!%

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  • Andy:

    It’s the bloody summer ow,so what’s with the opening line about winter, you demented dotard, CI. Shut the [email protected]@@ up you PAP puppet.

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  • Andy:

    It’s the bloody summer now,so what’s with the opening line about winter, you demented dotard, CI. Shut the f#€k up you PAP puppet.

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  • BK:

    @Haigen-Diaz, morning my frd. My take is, Kim cannot wait. Which US President had bothered to meet him besides Trump? Trump is non-ideological, he is mercantile. He wants to reduce US presence in Asia. And in the security context, a non-nuclear situation in Korea, gives him that room. Look at Obama and especially Hilary’s discourse on N Korea, they will be harder to deal with because of ‘ideology’.

    As for this narrative of China holding the US debts, u cannot have it both ways. If u want to sell to US with a huge trade surplus, your only recourse is to buy US debts. Now, while it is true that countries liked Japan and South Korea have trade surplus with China, the reason they don’t hold that much China debts is becoz of China’s capital markets.

    And China’s capital markets reforms are inevitably tied to their control over the economy. It is quite clear China’s private sector are innovatively way ahead of the State enterprises, but becoz of politics, the State enterprises are favored to the detriment of the private sector.

    In any case, if I remembered the figure right, the foreign reserves will just be enough to pay for one year of imports.

    Bottom line, someone has to go into deficit to allow capital to lubricate the global economy. If China wants to be that, it must go beyond one road one belt, it must fundamentally alter their internal politics. Is HK a harbinger? Time will tell.

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  • Jman:

    This is the price we have to pay for the many nice things we have. We have some of the nicest stuff in the world, strong currency, high asset prices. Which puts our cost structure at the very top. And because of all that, only those Singaporeans who can perform to the top level, push things to the limit constantly, and run nonstop are going to get any decent life in such an environment.

    But when the chips are down, we’d be the first to go. And then the weeding will start from the weakest among us and gradually work its way upward. And if it lasts long enough, eventually the top bosses and civil servants and ministers will also get hit. And many Singaporeans who are sour about public service pay will have their day.

    But when we get to that day, these sour Singaporeans have to remember that they are at the bottom of the hull of the ship. And when the ship sinks so badly, there will be many Singaporeans who will be far deeper underwater and far worse off than they are today.

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  • Hai-Gon Diaz:

    “Democrats have largely agreed on trade matters with Donald Trump who has warned Beijing not to hope for a softer stance from a difference president”.

    “China is our biggest threat, say several Democrat Contenders for White House”

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3016290/china-our-biggest-threat-say-four-democrat-contenders-white

    Haigen-Diaz:
    Xi will dance the tango with Trump and continue a strategy of continued negotiations and delays without concluding a trade agreement until the 2020 elections. Then China will have a different team to deal with and conclude a better trade deal with a Democratic President. More delay tactics as they wait out Trump’s presidency.

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  • mike:

    I more incline to agree that whoever the new president of America will continue DJT strategy against China.

    It will be a great mistake to think wait out for a new president will be good strategy. Our great leadership had been betting the wrong horse for decades.

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  • Trump meets Kim in DMZ:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MltgcggG4dk

    Special Report : Trump meets North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in the DMZ – NBC News.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    BK:
    My take is, Kim cannot wait. Which US President had bothered to meet him besides Trump? Trump is non-ideological, he is mercantile. He wants to reduce US presence in Asia. And in the security context, a non-nuclear situation in Korea, gives him that room. Look at Obama and especially Hilary’s discourse on N Korea, they will be harder to deal with because of ‘ideology’.

    @ BK (thanks for an economic perspective)
    @ oxygen (a no-hold dissections on true human nature)
    @ Rabble-rouser for a macro on our real economic woes
    @ Hai-Gon Daiz (gon gon chiak ti kong)

    I am a liberal who disagrees with almost everything that the present occupant of the White House does. That said, I have no issue with giving “legitimacy” and compliments to a Kim-Jong-Un that we’re stuck dealing with, if it creates opportunities for peace.

    What will happen over the long run is that N. Korea will maintain a nuclear weapon capacity and be recognized as a nuclear power. This will become the new status quo — in much the same way that a nuclear Soviet Union was an accepted fact for many decades (and still is under the new regime.) That acceptance is the only path forward to improved relations with NK. However, Kim does have a vested interest to institute something permanent with President Trump that will last beyond this administration. It is unlikely that he will be able to either have the same amount of rapport or support from the next US president, and it is unclear whether President Trump will eke out a second term.

    North Korea has nothing to lose and everything to gain from this. The United States, on the other hand, gets nothing of substance – just more empty promises that are no different than the several “difficult signed agreements” that have already been signed before and are not new to Trump.

    We can always go back to the adversarial relationship if we find that Kim isn’t following through on his end of the deal. Donald Trump deserves no credit for the ahistorical “summit” in Singapore for the single reason that the bellicosity that preceded it was a sham piece of showmanship just like the “crossing to N. Korea” a few hours ago.

    For all we don’t know is that Mr. Trump may have made major concessions, in exchange for exactly nothing from North Korea except that “historic crossings” which Trump brought back to America as ‘bragging rights’ to his red base.

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  • oxygen:

    @ BK

    GREETINGS, here is my contributed thoughts to your comments below.

    BK: As for this narrative of China holding the US debts, u cannot have it both ways. If u want to sell to US with a huge trade surplus, your only recourse is to buy US debts

    Me thinks the reverse holds true as well. Without Chinese trade surplus to accumulate US$ debt and reserves, it is hard to imagine who has the US$ to buy US Treasury bond issues. Currently US govt is running at a annual budget deficit of around US$1.3 trillion and counting. it needs creditors. So either US govt raise taxes and screw up consumer spending and its GDP growth or raise its bond yields and screw up its highly leveraged corporate sector earnings or both.

    BK: Bottom line, someone has to go into deficit to allow capital to lubricate the global economy. If China wants to be that, it must go beyond one road one belt, it must fundamentally alter their internal politics. Is HK a harbinger? Time will tell.

    Yes China has to go into deficit spending if it go aggressively on OBOR, final repayment could be repaid with commodities much like its investments in Africa.

    But going by the HK route, I doubt it. CHINA WILL NEVER ADOPT WESTERN CORPORATE LAW CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS prevailing in HK. It is socialism with Chinese characteristic of mixed capitalism, not capitalism riding on top of socialism.

    Chinese listings on NY stock exchange DO NOT COMPLY with regulatory framework there.

    Rubio leads charge to delist Chinese companies, including Alibaba

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dc-is-finally-paying-attention-to-scary-chinese-stocks-but-wall-street-may-pay-the-consequences-2019-06-25?mod=mw_theo_homepage&mod=mw_theo_homepage&mod=mw_theo_homepage

    DESPITE THE RISKS OF DELISTINGS, CHINESE LISTINGS IN US WON’T CHANGE AND COMPLY.

    BEIJING HOLDS THE SWORD OF OBEDIENCE FOR CHINESE PRIVATE SECTOR ENTERPRISE OR ELSE!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Hai-Gon Diaz

    I SUSPECT HAIGEN-DIAZ IS CORRECT. He spent a lot more years in China than myself. So it is likely he got more ground level experience than myself who has seen a good number of foreigners whose signed contracts with CHINESE PARTIES even seemingly respectable institutions got ripped apart.

    Without stating explicitly so, Chinese sides seems to play the “battle of forms” applications in western contract law very well. Only the last contract signed inside China counts and they bend rules and terms then.

    Whatever agreed upon and signed earlier counts for nothing.

    US Democrats knows Chinese hardball can’t be played on US terms which Trump is about to find out soon. Mnuchin and Lightizer growls bitterly that the Chinese side backflipped after agreeing earlier.

    NO SURPRISE TO ME THERE.

    US negotiators are learning the hard lessons now i saw so many in Shanghai happened to foreigners.

    Hai-Gon Diaz: “Democrats have largely agreed on trade matters with Donald Trump who has warned Beijing not to hope for a softer stance from a difference president”.

    “China is our biggest threat, say several Democrat Contenders for White House”

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3016290/china-our-biggest-threat-say-four-democrat-contenders-white

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  • oxygen:

    @ no end

    THIS IS ALSO VERY STRANGE, natural gas is the second worst commodities decline in price this year, yet our gas-fired power station is raising prices!!

    Here are the best- and worst-performing commodities in the first half of 2019

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-best–and-worst-performing-commodities-in-the-first-half-of-2019-2019-06-28?mod=mw_theo_homepage

    no end: The “give one chicken wing, take back whole chicken” has oredy begun.
    on news wef yesterday– Power rates to go up from july to september..by 6.4 pc..
    we can expect a $5 increase in our monthly bill.
    i guess we can expect more ‘horrors’ to come soon.
    these vampires are never satisfied.
    first the sweeteners then the bitter pill.
    #*&$#@!%

    IT IS UNBELIEVABLE.

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  • BK:

    @Haigen-Diaz, @Oxygen, of course @Rabble-rouser, thank you for the exchanges.

    Interesting from @Jman.

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  • BK:

    @Oxygen, I just want to add that, the longterm strategy of trying to find trade parity by Trump will eventually wither down US prestige and value.

    @Hagen-Diaz comment, directed me to the question; what is the liberal agenda in today’s context? A context of middle classes being decimated, rising nativism. Economically, we talk about Universal income etc. But the liberal agenda needs a new vision and strategy.

    The lack of this vision and strategy is giving ground to the conservatives. And the liberals, and a case in point is Obama, who I admired, but who laughed at the notion that Trump can be elected. It is this arrogance, this dismissal of how much the blue collars are suffering. They are not xenophobic but worry about their future.

    The liberals have no real answers yet.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-Diaz Et al:
    Bro, N.Korea’s nuclear weapon capacity is more of a worry to North Asia’s manufacturing backyard (China, South Korea, Japan & Taiwan) than to the US. Similarly, Iran’s uranium enrichment program worry the Middle-East countries & European countries more than the US.
    North Korea’s economy are already a basket case, wrecked with food shortages (famine) & regular bloodletting of generals & administrators – Look at Kim Jong-Un & his portly figure – how long can he continue to rule as Fatty Bum-bum when those below him are starving? Kim Jong-Un is living on borrowed time! North Korea has no choice but to merge with the more prosperous South in order to have a future (Much like East & West Germany after the collapse of the Berlin Wall). Kim would have to be assassinated sooner or later by his own generals.
    Other than the US & their war mongering hawks, no-one really want to go to war with Iran. Everyone knows that the US had achieved some level of Energy self sufficiency with their fracking industry. Also, considerable US investments into renewable energies have reduced certain dependencies on fossil fuels. Plus Trump’s renunciation of the Paid Accord on Climate Change was a game changer! Energy & fossil fuels dependency are still a critical element for Global industry & essential services in the short-to-medium term. No one wants to go to war with Iran because they have more to lose than the US. Any war with Iran would caused Middle-East oil & gas exports to be halted because Iran controls one side of the Straits of Hormuz & oil & gas shipping flows through this channel.
    What these rumblings coming mainly from Trump’s temper tantrums were just highly dangerous moves to destabilize the World. Perhaps, Trump was patronizing the US defence industries hoping to start a war simply to boost US fortunes. But this comes at the expense of the US Stockmarket & the Global Economy.
    At the end, what Trump would have achieved would be US economic isolation; re-routing of global trade bypassing US ports & avoiding US trade as a means to avoid US tariffs & financial sanctions! This simply plays into China’s Belt Road Initiatives. Trump is killing the US global influence, not “Making America Great Again”.

    Haigen-Diaz: What will happen over the long run is that N. Korea will maintain a nuclear weapon capacity and be recognized as a nuclear power.

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  • BK:

    Nice @Rabble-rouser.

    @Haigen-Diaz has his points. But if N Korea is to be an accepted nuclear power. I don’t see how Japan or South Korea will in the longer term not acquired nuclear capabilities. And in this scenario, US may help the allies to do so before quitting the scene.

    China will do all to resist this scenario.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ BK:
    The US & China are on different pathways of Economic Development & thus different stages of maturity. The US are on a downward descend because their Industrial Complex had already reached maturity during the 1980s. China’s rise circa late 1980s to early 1990s gave US Corporations a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to arbitrage (outsourcing/ Globalization) on China’s low cost structure reaping huge corporate profits for themselves. But this comes at the expense of hollowing the US Middle class & decimating the US blue-collar workforce.
    China, on the other hand, was smart enough to demand technology sharing on inward manufacturing investments investments & JV terms. This help them scale the learning curve considerably. Another was the huge exodus of Chinese scholars to Western Universities. It began as early as the mid-1980s & continued thereafter in masses. The pain I felt inside my heart was S’pore govt spurning of local talents opting to educate/train foreigners instead! That is the reason why S’pore had no residual of Hard Disk Drive technology left while China had build on Smartphones & began dominating 5G mobile technology. The difference – China had a strong Private sector which were given enough leeway to coexist with SOEs; the Central govt (Planning) worked closely with the external economists & industrial leaders to formulate Long-term Industrial Plans to not only dominate manufacturing but also scale the technology ladder! China has a bright future!
    Contrast this to the US – Industrial Complex policy were fragmented through management self interest & hidden agendas. US CEOs were more interested with their renumeration schemes & share options based on quarterly KPIs. Much of the US corporate entities are playing the financial engineering game of share buybacks & debt-funded dividend payouts to enhance share price. GE was a classical case of one charismatic CEO (Jack Welch) who not only handed a poisoned chalice to his successors but poisoned the corporate ground, too.
    Trump is chasing a futile dream!

    BK:
    @Oxygen, I just want to add that, the longterm strategy of trying to find trade parity by Trump will eventually wither down US prestige and value.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ BK:
    Liberal ideology espoused by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, AOC’s New Green Deal are especially attractive to naive Millennials, piss poor voters (usually minorities) & those sitting on the wrong side of the Wealth inequality equation. Socialism, populist policies & their resultant election “freebies” sounds great in today’s deeply divided US electorate. Let someone else (the rich) pay the bills while the majority enjoys those fruits obtained through populist votes. The Democratic process has degenerated into a game of vote buying so long as whomever get the most votes would be the politician who promised the most. Democrats are the masters of this.
    Fortunately, there are enough conservatives & sensible people (usually Republicans) who understand that “freebies” are never free. But most Americans are extremely confused about their predicament because the conservative political narratives have also become judgemental ie. looking for a scapegoat to trash. Most Americans hate illegal migrants coming into the US. Yet the cheap Avocado they buy from their Supermarket comes from illegal migrants labour on the farms. Legitimate labour would cost much more & the Avocado might be quite unaffordable instead. The wealthy whose garden landscaping, lawn mowing & house maintenance chores are all done by Latinos (most of whom are illegals). The conservatives, too, are hypocrites because they have selective blindness to Trump’s rhetoric against migrants. Yet without cheap labour, US inflation would be unbearable, services unaffordable!
    US politics have become ugly, divisive & confrontational. There are no common ground left.

    BK: @Hagen-Diaz comment, directed me to the question; what is the liberal agenda in today’s context? A context of middle classes being decimated, rising nativism. Economically, we talk about Universal income etc. But the liberal agenda needs a new vision and strategy.

    The lack of this vision and strategy is giving ground to the conservatives. And the liberals, and a case in point is Obama, who I admired, but who laughed at the notion that Trump can be elected. It is this arrogance, this dismissal of how much the blue collars are suffering. They are not xenophobic but worry about their future.

    The liberals have no real answers yet.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    BK: @Hagen-Diaz comment, directed me to the question; what is the liberal agenda in today’s context? A context of middle classes being decimated, rising nativism. Economically, we talk about Universal income etc. But the liberal agenda needs a new vision and strategy.

    The lack of this vision and strategy is giving ground to the conservatives…
    The liberals have no real answers yet.

    @ BK, et al: (Got transfixed by the live streaming on HK protestors inside the LegCo chamber. Heart goes out to them but I think they would had ‘crossed the line’ if they had refused to vacate.)

    Trump has capitalized on the tried and true theme of the Republican party that lawless, lazy, undeserving immigrants and minorities are responsible for middle class stagnation. True, Trump has added a new twist of fake populism and the evils of globalization, but he had predictably failed to make any new and better trade deals nor put in place any economic plan to benefit the middle class, other than the old trickle down scam of tax cuts for the wealthy. The argument that they have used to propel themselves into this position; by being the champions of the working-class and fiscal austerity, have since been disproved; starting with their catastrophic tax reform bill that rewards the wealthy and corporate elite.

    The two party system when filled with those who think government is there only for their own personal benefit or some ideological bent, lead to the squalor US have today. And every politically astute liberal knows that, if you start a new, truly progressive national party, it will merely split the vote left of center, insuring Republican victories. Politically astute conservatives know this too, and that’s why the Tea Party scares them to death.

    It has been many years since I felt that either major party represents any core values and addresses most urgent concerns. As more private money is spent on elections, and term limits remain a distant mirage, the control of government will continue to be directed by an increasingly smaller number of Americans plutocrats.

    US is now standing at a dangerous crossroads that has more to do with the ability to remain morally upright, rather than if one is right. Or left. Or conservative. Or liberal.

    Trump has energized a large segment who are on the far right of the spectrum. The Democrats have not unified their beliefs regarding where they should be positioned on the left of the spectrum. Hopefully, most Americans reside somewhere close to the middle and democracy will prevail.

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  • BK:

    Yo bros, I enjoy how we obviously differ but without casting the canvas in black and sharing our colors and space (:

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  • glaring noticeable difference:

    //The pain I felt inside my heart was S’pore govt spurning of local talents opting to educate/train foreigners instead! That is the reason why S’pore had no residual of Hard Disk Drive technology left while China had build on Smartphones & began dominating 5G mobile technology.//

    sinkie land is operating like an army system. i (general) say you do (lots of soldiers) so that more or less everyone is moving in one same direction / objecctive ; and the whole pysche of the nation (especially the pinear or macdeka or the one after generations) is precisely moulded to such mentality; a lot of hard working soldiers just need to do as commanded without the right to question upper authority; and being disagreeable is termed subordination with penalty meted out (more stick) ??

    151th standard (like 4 = 5 and selected = elected) only believes the intelligence of a few wise men (the aristocrats) and every other daft sinkie has to second their awe to this privileged white group. and a lot of wayang laws and environmental messages are invented (propagated) to perpetuate this system and control ??

    China is quite similar to singapore of course in different periods economic wise. different countries doing different catching up work from a low base.

    singapore (being open presenting itself as a business centre namely manufacturing) in the 60s and 70s while china is doing what it is doing now (manufacturing, technology and engineering) both capitalizing what the world has to offer during different periods.

    however, one thing to note singapore is more open-leg while china is still insular in terms of openness to outside ‘elements’ (inward migration of so-called talent) ? one glaring noticeable difference, china builds while singapore imports (too open-leg and the white idiots are still sounding out the same message) ? and china is trying to export their competence which they have built to other projects (BRI) with strong message while sinkie land is pretty loud (also strong message) in their open-leg policy.

    singapore being early in the so-called open market game has hardened its own approach and inertia which it finds it very difficult to change (top-down approach, one party system, ownself check ownself, etc, etc very sweetened for the white idiots and gang).

    perhaps to change or for sinkie land to change, the white idiots are waiting for others to do them a favor by VTO as the white idiots probably know that they cannot change themselves (as the fortune of many kaki lang is too intertwined with the way they run the system).

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  • effect of snowballing chaos:

    //But when we get to that day, these sour Singaporeans have to remember that they are at the bottom of the hull of the ship. And when the ship sinks so badly, there will be many Singaporeans who will be far deeper underwater and far worse off than they are today.//

    well, just loud thinking, and what to do if a situation is bad enough for people to reach this stage (reaching the point of buay tahan that the sour sinkies feel that there is nothing more to lose) ?

    once people reach a buay tahan or buay song stage, the emotional part of the brain starts to take over the rational thinking part of the brain lar ? e.g current HK protests (or riots as the pro-establishment would like to paint), are just one example ? no one wants instability or chaos, but you never know how one seemingly innocuous act may trigger a butterfly effect of snowballing chaos (black swan) if the conditions (unpredictable) are already there ?

    but using your analogy, why should be deeper underwater ? unless the white idiots & gang shu-bu-qi (cannot afford to lose and start to roll in tanks in a freak election) and start to deliberately poke holes at the hull ?

    and of course, ,if the white idiots win in any “election” (like 4 = 5 and selected = elected), then no classification of freak election ?? of course, white idiots must always be positioned at the upper deck with all the good life jackets ready for them to bail out if the ships start to sink ?

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  • blame game propaganda:

    //Got transfixed by the live streaming on HK protestors inside the LegCo chamber. Heart goes out to them but I think they would had ‘crossed the line’ if they had refused to vacate//

    it is like playing poker. each side is trying to paint the other side with one broad brush stroke as bad guys. and each side is upping the ante to show that they are still in the game.

    of course, there are pockets of bad protesters and bad policemen – just pockets not all but now one brush stroke is always convenient and neat and the blame game propaganda and follow up action is turning more noisy on both sides;

    and the original agenda (opposing the extradition bill) has now branched out to a confusing mix (each seemingly small event has it own cause and bigger resulting effect) of police brutality, unlawful riot, public safety, incompetence, etc, etc (many many many issues perhaps bringing more indifferent players (e.g family members and friends from both sides) in the first place now into the game and a more divisive society).

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ glaring noticeable difference:
    China is driven to recapture their Paramount status many centuries ago when the Middle kingdom was once the most civilized nation in the world at a time when the West were full of barbarians who were pillaging villages; as marauders, rapists & murderers. But China went off the rails because of the inherent “Chinaman Mentality” aka Selfishness of preserving their own genes & using political elitism & aristocracy to support nepotism & cronyism within the Imperial structure (Emperor). This lead to the most humiliating period for the Chinese people towards the end of the Qing Dynasty.
    Read my comment in “Useless PAP MPs who keep quiet in parliament” July 1, 2019 @ 8.04 pm.
    Open leg policy coupled with MAS SG$ stable exchange mechanism (read: appreciating against regional currencies) is a bankrupt mechanism (no-brain power required to make it work) which is unsustainable mid-to-long-term. It has to do with 80% State ownership of land in S’pore plus 100% over the reclaimed land. Easy work entry plus SG$ Forex attraction – drive up housing demand, lower wages & enhanced rent-seeking activities eg REITs & Kopi-tiams. You think they care about the side-effects of their policies ie. people & traffic congestion, congested public transportation & healthcare, high cost of living, unaffordable housing, etc.
    But ask yourself these questions:
    * how much more influx can S’pore take on when S’pore has already exceeded the geographical limits of living intensities;
    * how long can the SG$ preserve their value when our SWFs are throwing monies into the wind? In addition, our GLCs are failing in the market place while their crony management were still collecting millions inspite of their s**tty performance?
    The difference is China is building on a future as an Economic Superpower but S’pore is being harvested by the powers-to-be before the s**t hit the ceiling fan.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Rabble-rouser: @ Haigen-Diaz Et al:
    Bro, N.Korea’s nuclear weapon capacity is more of a worry to North Asia’s manufacturing backyard (China, South Korea, Japan & Taiwan) than to the US.

    @ Rabble-rouser, et al:

    Bro, What is the least bad option? Getting China to agree to rein in North Korea. There can be no change without China getting comfortable with the 800 mile border and the probability of vast numbers of vastly poor refugees. China’s one worst nightmare is a collapse of the NK regime and millions of NK refugees fleeing into China. Their other worst nightmare is a growing US military presence in the Pacific, especially around Taiwan.

    The NK leader went to China first, before signaling any potential concessions. He almost certainly received security guarantees from President-for-Life Xi and the possibility of renewed trade with China in return for a freeze of provocative actions. Watch China and Xi, not Trump.

    Trump did not tighten sanctions, the UN did, after successful ICBM tests started during the Trump Administration, threatening many nations. The US has never traded with NK, whose primary trading partner is China, for both food and energy. Moreover, it was more effective enforcement, especially by China but also through interceptions of ship-to-ship oil transfers that violated sanctions. Make no mistake, China has all of the cards here but they don’t want to show them.

    The game changer here is that a formal Peace Treaty is on the table, not just a ‘peace declaration’ as has happened before. The other overlooked factor here, I believe, is Kim Jong Un’s age. Kim still has half-a-century more to live, and as a de-facto-ruler-for-life, his only chance for survival and peaceful death is to raise the living standard of his people. He can’t just bid to ride out a wave, wait out the passing of time, like his father or grandfather did when they were in power. To hold on to power till his old age, Kim needs to revive his crumbling country and raise his impoverished people. He has seen how China has survived (and thrived) by doing so.

    This is the calculus and opening for a formal Peace Treaty, and that will make a difference.

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  • Always Ask:

    who transformed China into what it is today?

    The descendants of 5000 yrs of civilisation or the descendants of “barbarians who were pillaging villages; as marauders, rapists & murderers”?

    Middle East and south America also got most civilised nation in the world at a time, so ?

    When a sick man fully recovered because the treating doctors had skills and good medicine, now want to be yaya and try to beat up these doctors?

    Rabble-rouser:
    China is driven to recapture their Paramount status many centuries ago when the Middle kingdom was once the most civilized nation in the world at a time when the West were full of barbarians who were pillaging villages; as marauders, rapists & murderers.

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  • Please Lah !:

    NK is conjoined to China since time immemorial. If Kim got good concession or guarantees, then long long time got already.

    Still must so troublesome meet here, meet that meh ? Must borrow aeroplane, must take long train trips, must pretend to smile in front of cameras, still must make sure can come back after leaving.

    More like “Trump’s Visit to North Korea is an Alarming Message to China”

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-visit-north-korea-alarming-135700737.html

    Haigen-Diaz:

    The NK leader went to China first, before signaling any potential concessions. He almost certainly received security guarantees from President-for-Life Xi and the possibility of renewed trade with China in return for a freeze of provocative actions. Watch China and Xi, not Trump.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Always Ask:
    What is the phrase that the PAP & their sycophants followers always tell you when you have problems, “No one owes you a living!”.
    Suck it up, mate! If they can do it to others, they ought to be able to take it as no one owes them a living, right?

    Always Ask:
    who transformed China into what it is today?

    The descendants of 5000 yrs of civilisation or the descendants of “barbarians who were pillaging villages; as marauders, rapists & murderers”?

    Middle East and south America also got most civilised nation in the world at a time, so ?

    When a sick man fully recovered because the treating doctors had skills and good medicine, now want to be yaya and try to beat up these doctors?

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Always Ask:
    34,000 investors lost their monies in Hyflux. They asked the govt for help & even organized a rare protest at the city’s Speaker’s Corner. The demand that the Singapore government should step in has been a non-starter – This is the way capitalism works, the aggrieved investors are being reminded by the authorities.

    Link:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-04-09/blame-for-singapore-s-hyflux-failure-goes-beyond-investor-greed

    On the same note, the “doctors” have to tell themselves “This is the way capitalism works”. At least, what was lost were tax-payer’s monies & S’pore’s future for PMEs. What did they lose on their own, nothing to be precise! In fact, they had raised their pay many times more since. Unlike the 34,000 Hyflux investors who lost their “blood, sweat & tears”. They were told to suck it up.
    What is your point, really? Don’t like China? You got problems, meh?

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