When You Don’t Know What To Do Claim It’s All Part of a Long Term Strategy

Any wishful thinking that the US-China trade war would soon be over was dispelled by Trump’s announcement last week of a 10% tariff, effective September 1st, on the $300 billion of Chinese exports which have so far escaped.

The PAP Government have always claimed that it is only because of their careful planning and long-term strategy for Singapore coupled with efficient and incorruptible administration that we have become an economic powerhouse. I have instead argued that this is a case of the PAP claiming credit for economic trends that would have happened regardless of their leadership, or the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this therefore because of this). While we do not have the luxury of counter-factuals in economics, the probability is that Singapore would have enjoyed fast growth regardless of who was in charge. Singaporeans certainly never had to put up with the loss of freedom.

Neither was the economic austerity and forced saving that was imposed necessary. Famously Tharman justified this in Parliament as saying that our sovereign wealth funds, GIC and Temasek, were investing for the long term. Using the cover of “long term investing” and the bogus need for secrecy has allowed the PM to appoint members of his family, particularly his wife, to be in charge of managing your money and paying themselves secretly what are almost guaranteed to be obscene amounts while making unverifiable claims as to the returns achieved. All I can say is that if we have reserves even 10% of what we should have based on Temasek’s and GIC’s claims then why does Lee Hsien Loong constantly talk about the need to put up taxes?

Yesterday Chan Chun Sing in a state-media orchestrated pre-election speech to the Tanjong Pagar Club, continued the PAP tradition of claiming credit when things go well but blaming external circumstances when things go badly. By saying that the Government is adopting a “targeted and long term perspective in its economic strategies” (translation: the Government is “gasih buta” about what to do!) he is just asking Singaporeans to trust them in the same way the Government asks you to trust them when it says it is investing for the long term so you cannot have your CPF money back at 55.

In another laughable comment CCS said that “We have always been transparent and honest with our people”. In fact the transparency and honesty has been completely one-sided. The PAP have always imposed sacrifices on the people, particularly the poorest and most vulnerable, while trying to deceive Singaporeans in their Budget presentation as to the resources available and actual spending. They will not tell us what assets the Government owns and they certainly will not tell us how their spouses, offspring, relatives and cronies have profited in terms of jobs, scholarships and contracts as a result of Government connections. The Government is too afraid to tell us even the simplest piece of information such as how much the PM’s wife is paid let alone what assets the Lees have accumulated in 60 years of unfettered rule. Meanwhile Malaysia moves way ahead of us in good governance and transparency.

It has never been more true that people get the Government they deserve. I am not hopeful that anything will change after the coming election.

 

Kenneth Jeyaretnam

* The author blogs at https://kenjeyaretnam.com/.

 

 

yyy
SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENT
Loading...

30 Responses to “When You Don’t Know What To Do Claim It’s All Part of a Long Term Strategy”

  • nothing good to offer us sgs:

    yeah thats why i didnt bother to watch the PM’s ND message or the NDP.
    im quite sure i didnt miss anything.
    same old same old repetition i bet!
    moreover i cant bare to look at their ‘retard’ faces!

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • RDB:

    What can be done about dumb voters who complain about pap for 5 years and then still vote for them again for another 5 more years for themselves to grumble again till the next GE or BE.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • RDB:

    WE the not dumb voters do not deserve the darn govt that they the some 70% always voted for to complain about the govt they love/

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • The 70% Problem:

    I concur with KJ.

    Singaporeans will continue to vote P∆P.
    This is well proven.

    They do not want to force the garment to be transparent.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • pap S$m clan of lying liars:

    Open statement to the world, and to 70% sheep.

    pap operates on fake news basis, for the purpose of continuing in power so as to be able to continue to grab S$m swee swee via a pliant parleeement.

    how does pap do it?

    when market is good, and USA and China not on trade war, meaning a rising tide which lifts all boats, pap says economy chucking along due to pap talent and pays each other S$m in GDP growth bonus.

    any bonus less than a million will not do, since it is mediocre.

    when market is bad, and USA and China on trade war, meaning economy is bad in Singapore, pap says economy not chucking along due to market and continues to pay each other S$m in GDP growth bonus.

    one minute talent, next minute market. one minute chicken, next minute feather. This is how pap operates on fake news basis, aka fake talent and fake market basis, all for the purpose of S$m GDP growth bonus.

    70% sheep is truly WTF.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • More New Citizens than ever:

    The 70% will be 72% this GE, i suspect .

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Harder Truths:

    “It has never been more true that people get the Government they deserve. I am not hopeful that anything will change after the coming election…”

    Thank you for this frank and honest statement about the real situation in $G and the truth that nothing is going to get fixed.

    $G can have as many wayang leeders and elections as it wants – but the outcome will always be the same.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • On Chan's existentialism:

    “The ‘long run’ is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.”

    - John Maynard Keynes

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • TruBlu:

    First,show us how you manage your CIVIL SERVICE.
    Second,show us how you manage your GRASSROOTERS.

    Many sgs have seen how your civil servants treat your grassrooters favourably against common sgs.

    MANY civil servants seem to do the bidding of grassrooters instead if SERVING THE public with fairness and INTEGRITY.

    If you cannot even do these two things properly,forget about being PM?

    PLS SHOW US WHAT YOU CAN DO.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    And I had a critic who blamed me for continually “talking” down the S’pore property market such that he/she missed a buying opportunity between 2011 to the present day on S’pore’s property “bull run”. Please buy if you have the money, just don’t blame others for your fears.
    http://www.tremeritus.net/2019/08/07/want-singaporeans-to-have-more-babies/
    But I did no such thing ie. did not “predict” the property market downfall but simply laid out the facts that S’pore property market can’t hope to perform like an outlying market (contrarian market) when the global property market are all Synchronised to fall.
    S’pore is such a small market that even outlier transactions as Haigen-Diaz pointed out – $1.2 million deal on “City View @ Boon Keng when HDB resale price index has been on a declining trend since 2013. Maybe that’s why they think property prices haven’t come down yet.”
    The recent HK turmoil sparked a property euphoria for new launches (crowds & queues coming back) – I alluded it to speculative pre-booking of units in lieu of potential inflows of HK monies coming in due to their political uncertainty. Remember the HSR, where property punters were extremely bullish on Jurong East condos that @$1,700 psf, they’re a bargain! Those buyers must be kicking themselves!
    That is a huge problem with S’poreans today – they only want to view the world according to their own illusionary perspectives. And this had been reinforced by the S’pore Mainstream media who have a vested interest – tendency to parrot the govt views or to support their official narratives; downplaying the negatives while colouring the bleak landscape with vivid colours of positivity or promoting their god-like powers.
    Like Kenneth Jeyaretnam puts it succinctly, once the narrative landscape is well-controlled by the powers-to-be & there can be no alternative nor critical views, the masses begins to believe the BS without even trying. And there are just too much BS in our eco-system today!

    Kenneth Jeyaretnam: The PAP Government have always claimed that it is only because of their careful planning and long-term strategy for Singapore coupled with efficient and incorruptible administration that we have become an economic powerhouse.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Old Boy:

    Oh shut up KJ!

    You are so different from your dad! He takes action, wins a seat. What do you do – blaming fellow Singaporeans.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    CAVE-MEN AND CAVE-WOMEN ALL SUFFERING FROM THE SAME MENTAL WARP – confirmation bias, many carries this to the extreme myopia.

    Yet the irrefutable staggering evidence points to weak state of the global economy NO POLITICIANS IN GOVERNANCE would also likes to read or hear.

    I have added new comments to the weblink identified below. It would be nice to see who can come on board to REFUTE THE FACTS illuminated or challenge the analysis.

    OBVIOUSLY NO ADVICE GIVEN – to each his/her own investing decision and risks-taking, if ever – some even leave their money in CPF to be “eaten up” by white ghosts of PAPpypolitics & PAPpynomics.

    Rabble-rouser: And I had a critic who blamed me for continually “talking” down the S’pore property market such that he/she missed a buying opportunity between 2011 to the present day on S’pore’s property “bull run”. Please buy if you have the money, just don’t blame others for your fears.
    http://www.tremeritus.net/2019/08/07/want-singaporeans-to-have-more-babies/
    But I did no such thing ie. did not “predict” the property market downfall but simply laid out the facts that S’pore property market can’t hope to perform like an outlying market (contrarian market) when the global property market are all Synchronised to fall.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Rabble-rouser: That is a huge problem with S’poreans today – they only want to view the world according to their own illusionary perspectives. And this had been reinforced by the S’pore Mainstream media who have a vested interest – tendency to parrot the govt views or to support their official narratives; downplaying the negatives while colouring the bleak landscape with vivid colours of positivity or promoting their god-like powers.

    oxygen: @ Rabble-rouser

    CAVE-MEN AND CAVE-WOMEN ALL SUFFERING FROM THE SAME MENTAL WARP – confirmation bias, many carries this to the extreme myopia.

    Yet the irrefutable staggering evidence points to weak state of the global economy NO POLITICIANS IN GOVERNANCE would also likes to read or hear.

    @ Rabble-rouser & oxygen

    A democratic way of governing understands that having voters who get access to proven truths, are encouraged to fact-check, consult different kinds of media, support independent journalism, and engage in real, respectful debates with each other, is CRUCIAL in order for the nation as a whole to thrive.

    It also means that not everything can be proven, so we HAVE to rely on certain fundamental hypotheses, which ARE constantly debates, but cannot really proven to be true or false.

    The demagogic propagandist (CAVE-MEN AND CAVE-WOMEN) must be constantly dogmatic. There are no grays in their world image; everything is either diabolically black or celestially white … they must never acknowledge that one might be incorrect or that individuals with a distinct point of perspective might even be partly correct.

    It’s a black and white casino where the whites gamble, the blacks serve drinks.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • smoke:

    To all the great forcasters,isnt several years of predicting a property downturn too lenient to oneself?

    Rabble rousers are arguing that they are not wrong?

    So,if you are working for a bank or a reputable investment company and keep predicting downturn for several years on and lose money “shorting” the markets,you would still claim you are right?
    I tell you,you would be sacked even if you think yourself a genius.

    Every investment has a time-kline.
    Be humble.
    Dont just predict without a responsible accounting.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • TruBlu:

    Too many arrogant *cook$* spoil the broth is stilk true in present day SG.

    Actually,i mean to say TOO MANY ARROGANT *COCKS* spoil the broth..

    Pls be humble or just be fools.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble rouser

    YOUR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK of LEE-jiapore’s property market has been VINDICATED. SPOT ON, MATE.

    Real estate consultant Ku Swee Yong, believe the current optimism is misplaced. He warns today

    Ku Swee Yong:“I will sound like I am the most negative, anti-Singapore-property person … But the other indicators are not looking so positive,…..There’s too much hype, smoke and hot air in this market.”

    Hype, smoke, and hot air’ clouding Singapore real estate

    https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/singapore/hype-smoke-and-hot-air-clouding-singapore-real-estate/ar-AAFGEh3?li=BBr8Cnr

    Excerpts from the same hot news include.

    Meanwhile, foreclosures, or defaults on mortgages, have been on the rise. The number of properties put up for auction, including re-listings, hit a record 778 in the first half of this year, based on data from real estate consultancy Colliers International since 2008. This was up 23 per cent from the previous six months, and 71 per cent higher than the same period a year ago.

    Of the 778 listings, 362 were made by mortgagees – mostly banks that foreclosed properties in the residential and retail sectors.

    and

    Should the economy slump and incomes fall, housing demand and prices will naturally follow, said Dr Sing Tien Foo, director of the National University of Singapore’s Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies. Those who are highly leveraged or have taken on more loans than they can handle will face rising debt and mortgage default risks.

    “The lessons from the last crises, especially the 1997 Asian financial crisis that caused a prolonged recession, should not be understated or forgotten,” he said. “Similarly, the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 was rooted partially in overexuberance in the housing markets, which led to over-lending, especially the high-risk subprime loans.”

    CAVE-MEN AND CAVE-WOMEN ARE ALL IN SLUMBERLAND, dreaming of fantasy wealth fabricated OUT of a mountain of debt.

    I DON’T UNDERSTAND THEM???

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ smoke:
    Big difference between having “skin in the game” eg. Being a bona-fide property investor as opposed to working in the real estate industry with a vested interest. Vested interest means hidden agendas!

    You are thoroughly confusing between the two. That’s why I think you’re an IB working for 50 cents a post! Nothing you write makes sense especially when you wrote “lose money “shorting” the markets!” – for financial assets, yes you can but not for property!

    Real property investors do not read investment reports done by property investment analysts who are probably still living with their parents or renting an apartment themselves. The Real property investors work their brains out to find their ideal “undervalued” investment property, do their fieldwork by walking the ground & do their own quiet research. And they never broadcast their findings!

    Those lazy bums who only buy property by attending Property Investment Seminars & buying their “sure-win” properties were gullible fools. Like the proverb, A fool & his money would soon be parted!

    Remember Hyflux pref & perp instruments where 34,000 thought 6% was a pow-chiak investment & quickly rushed to ATMs to subscribe for it! At that time, nobody asks questions as to why SGX & the underwriting banks made it so easy for Ma ‘n Pa investors to invest via ATMs. Did anyone said any negative things about Hyflux then! If they did, they would have been crucified for it! Isn’t this the same situation? Am I wrong to say this?

    Which type of property investor are you? Do you seek comfort investing with a crowd? Or are you a contrarian?

    smoke:
    To all the great forcasters,isnt several years of predicting a property downturn too lenient to oneself?

    Rabble rousers are arguing that they are not wrong?

    So,if you are working for a bank or a reputable investment company and keep predicting downturn for several years on and lose money “shorting” the markets,you would still claim you are right?
    I tell you,you would be sacked even if you think yourself a genius.

    Every investment has a time-kline.
    Be humble.
    Dont just predict without a responsible accounting.

    oxygen: @ Rabble rouser

    YOUR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK of LEE-jiapore’s property market has been VINDICATED. SPOT ON, MATE.

    Real estate consultant Ku Swee Yong, believe the current optimism is misplaced.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    S’pore’s “Lies, Fantasy & Falsehoods” (your beautiful descriptive phrase) full of Grandiose media announcements & population growth narratives created an Euphoric & Buoyant property landscape.
    The Pow Chiak mentality of initially forecasting 6.9 million target in a White Paper, then cleverly adjusted to 10 million unofficial target numbers to induce wannabe property investors appetites.
    The drip feed of Infrastructural Spending of new MRT lines criss crossing build-up urban areas; the High Speed Rail project which cause investors to bid up Jurong East condos to over $1,700 psf. Port & airbase relocation releasing lands for more redevelopment & higher potential future pricing.
    Short of saying this! – Dr Ivan Pavlov would have been proud of such conditioning done on humans, not puppies. It validates his Conditioning theory. When one creates a beautiful stimulus (buying trigger) in parallel with an action (media announcement) in S’pore, the conditioning response is even better than salivation, you get FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out!). Ha-ha-ha-ha! What lessons? What learnings?

    oxygen: Should the economy slump and incomes fall, housing demand and prices will naturally follow, said Dr Sing Tien Foo, director of the National University of Singapore’s Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies. Those who are highly leveraged or have taken on more loans than they can handle will face rising debt and mortgage default risks.

    “The lessons from the last crises, especially the 1997 Asian financial crisis that caused a prolonged recession, should not be understated or forgotten,

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    oxygen: Meanwhile, foreclosures, or defaults on mortgages, have been on the rise. The number of properties put up for auction, including re-listings, hit a record 778 in the first half of this year,

    Rabble-rouser: Short of saying this! – Dr Ivan Pavlov would have been proud of such conditioning done on humans, not puppies. It validates his Conditioning theory. When one creates a beautiful stimulus (buying trigger) in parallel with an action (media announcement) in S’pore, the conditioning response is even better than salivation, you get FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out!).

    What spawned this “stupidity” was the profit motive. To quote Forest Gump, “Maybe it’s both stupidity & greed, happening at the same time.”

    If that dimwit can come to terms with the complexity of life surely we know that CAVE-MEN AND CAVE-WOMEN of LEE-jiapore’s property market(credit to oxygen) are doomed as a species because one would have to have exactly no brain cells not to know that an economy built on mortgages where the payments would escalate over time, is doomed to fail. It used to be that mortgages got better as they aged. Then some genius devised a mortgage that only made things worse the longer you held it!

    In the larger and more diverse jungle, competition and even predation is good for all the jungle’s inhabitants — their species, anyway. A true-blue LION lying with a SMOKE-lamb in a cave is an ideal. Thus, both epistemological groups are focusing on the same stupidity, and not the root cause. They both made the same one-way bets at the same time.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-Diaz, oxygen:
    I read a Bloomberg article that Warren Buffett “The Oracle Of Omaha”, had amassed a mammoth cash pile amounting to some US$122 billion worth of liquid funds. This was a very unusual thing for him to do especially as Buffett hates keeping large cash holdings earning virtually no returns given today’s low interest rate environment.
    As a renowned Global investor with a very successful investing track record, he must have very good reasons to do so. One, he probably finds the Global Stockmarkets especially the US stocks, extremely overvalued; & Two, he want to minimise any potential capital losses by exiting well ahead of the market’s turning points realising his capital gains ahead of time. At this time, I think he sees a lot of risks in the bubble markets.
    One also realises that he didn’t say that he had invested either in Gold or in Cryptocurrency; both markets rallying due to the FED rate cut cycle imposed by Trump on Jay Powell. Buffett’s actions speaks a lot about his investing philosophy – clear & simple.
    For him, there is no such thing as a long-term investment nor remaining fully invested in the stockmarket! If there were capital gains to be made, Buffett takes it & hold as cash to be reinvested at low points for the next rising stock cycle.
    And Buffett is totally transparent to his shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway. No such thing as secrecy. The crutch of secrecy is nothing but a veil for investment failures!
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-08-03/buffett-s-cash-pile-hits-record-as-berkshire-holds-122-billion

    And Buffett’s present day cash holding strategy coincides with my views that S’pore property market isn’t ripe for plunging into the deep end. Property investors should have sold off their property investments holdings between 2013 to 2015 & stayed in cash like Warren Buffett. Any recent property rebound was probably either a dead cat bounce or a bull trap with false buy signals generated by developers & vested interests. People who don’t understand deserved to lose their panties!

    Kenneth Jeyaretnam: Tharman justified this in Parliament as saying that our sovereign wealth funds, GIC and Temasek, were investing for the long term. Using the cover of “long term investing” and the bogus need for secrecy has allowed the PM to appoint members of his family, particularly his wife, to be in charge of managing your money and paying themselves secretly what are almost guaranteed to be obscene amounts while making unverifiable claims as to the returns achieved.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Smoke

    MATE, ARE YOU THE BLOGGER by the handle @ Truth seeker seeking/accepting truth presumably in this thread?

    http://www.tremeritus.net/2019/08/07/want-singaporeans-to-have-more-babies/

    THE CONTENTS OF YOUR ATTACKS of rabble rouser and subject-matter is the same.

    If you are, your netiquette is a BIT SAD of mischief of identity hiding and suggestive you are UNABLE OF TRUTH SEEKING you claims to be.

    smoke: To all the great forcasters,isnt several years of predicting a property downturn too lenient to oneself?

    Rabble rousers are arguing that they are not wrong?

    But leave that aside for the moment, you claims missing out buying your home resulting from @ Rabble rouser (and others) “advice” of negative posting. A bit sad that you are NOT TAKING OWNERSHIP OF YOUR DECISION.

    No one in TRE told you this @ smoke (aka @ TRUTH SEEKER) NOT to buy. It is your money and your final call. @ Rabble rouser et all, including Ku Swee Yong, Dr Sing from NUS or other property agency in my weblink supplied above with bearish narratives is stopping you from buying now, right?

    Do you blame them too?

    I hasten to suggest your immaturity and inexperience. I am confident that @ Rabble rouser is informed and has depth and breath of knowledge and experience and sharing that is not a display of pride or lack of humility. It is unfair of you to allege that.

    @ Haigen Diaz is no simple illiterate loitering in TRE.

    I share the same perspectives as both of them on economy and property market in LEE-jiapore. I dare say that I have more the 40 yrs of rough and tumble in the casino game (read investing) got defeated more than once. Where were you 40 years ago? I watch property stocks melt in ACC like MUI, Metroplex, HL Industries, MRCB, Crimson Land, IOI the same way I was shocked to see the overhead construction crane in KL all grind to a halt.

    As far back as 1987 Oct. 19 – Black Monday – I watch the computer screen the first few minute of the meltdown. Opening bids on SGX listed blue chips including property stocks were 70% or worst below the preceding overnight close.

    I take it that you are a millennial striking out with big dreams BUT HAVE NOT YET TASTED DEFEAT.

    I WAS INSOLVENT POST CLOB when Mahathir shut down CLOB in Singapore stock exchange.

    I came back so I am telling you that until you tasted defeat, DON’T DERIDE THOSE WHO ARE FINANCIALLY PRUDENT in the casino thrill seeking.

    MORTGAGE IS NOT EVEN FAKE WEALTH, IT IS REAL DEBT. No one got rich SIMPLY by getting deeply into debt he/she is over-extended.

    YOU CHOOSE YOUR OWN FORTUNE & OR FUNERAL.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen Diaz

    BEAUTIFULLY SAID, society and its complexity is mirror reflection of each other. The asset enhancement politics of PAPpynomics is a rotten scam and/or at least a MONUMENTAL FONT of perverse economic logic.

    Haigen-Diaz: If that dimwit can come to terms with the complexity of life surely we know that CAVE-MEN AND CAVE-WOMEN of LEE-jiapore’s property market(credit to oxygen) are doomed as a species because one would have to have exactly no brain cells not to know that an economy built on mortgages where the payments would escalate over time, is doomed to fail. It used to be that mortgages got better as they aged. Then some genius devised a mortgage that only made things worse the longer you held it!

    Why?

    oxygen: MORTGAGE IS NOT EVEN FAKE WEALTH, IT IS REAL DEBT. No one got rich SIMPLY by getting deeply into debt he/she is over-extended.

    DEBT IS AN OBLIGATION THAT MUST BE SETTLED or legally “stolen” by default of bankruptcy due process. I simply don’t understand how wealth economics can be achieved by stealing of failed mortgage default either at the individual level or in its magnification, state economy.

    And forced mortgage sales in LEE-jiapore is already on the rise BEFORE THIS ONSET OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN just underway. That means it can only get worst from here.

    CAVE MEN AND CAVE WOMEN DON’T UNDERSTAND THE SIMPLICITY OF ECONOMIC REALITY – when property market crashed, it MUST MEAN THE PREVAILING PRICE/MARKET is bubbly over-inflated i.e. the yield must have dwindled. Otherwise those forced mortgage will all be snapped up faster than the 5-star hotel free buffet fit for royalty.

    Did this already happen in LEE-jiapore with so many forced mortgage sales relisted repeatedly looking for buyers?

    SINCE THE CONTRARY IS TRUE – the consequences is not hard to imagine for any thinking mind – mortgage distressed property MUST BE SOLD AT A STEEP DISCOUNT TO IMPROVE ITS YIELD TO FIND THE NEXT BUYER (for the given risks) and THIS HAPPENS WITHOUT FAILED IN PROPERTY MARKET CRASHES.And if mortgage property price collapsed in the same near locality, DOESN’T THAT ALSO DEFLATE THE VALUATION of property of those living/owned nearby?

    That is to say, PROPERTY VALUATION has profound counter-party risks of forced mortgagee distress sales nearby – exactly the same as it bubbles on HYPE, SMOKE AND HOT AIR of Ku Swee Yong’s categorisation.

    And if global economy is good, why is negative interest rate in EU/Japan and falling in US?

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz

    THIS IS ANOTHER PAPpypolitics/PAPpynomic scam of FAKE ECONOMIC DOCTRINE belonging to the “wisdom” mindset prevailing in the cave-men and cave-women era – they want to increase the retirement age of those able and willing to work beyond 67.

    SEX-IN-A-TIGHT-SPOT bragged on 60,000 jobs (exactly or fictional imagination of this precise number) waiting to be filled to colorise this fantasy. Readers of PRAVDA-SINKIELAND PUBLISHING do not know if the 60,000 vacancies have how many openings for janitors, or table-top cleaning in food outlets or PIMPS in some massage parlours and chicken farms whilst PAPpypolitics/PAPpynomics seeks to supplement this with huge foriegn population influx.

    MASSIVE POPULATION INFLUX MUST MEAN ARTIFICIAL UPWARD DEMAND PRESSURE ON ALL GOODS AND SERVICES – inflationary spiral.

    So WTF is any good for the economy forced to spend a phenomenal amount of national savings and reserves on infrastructure, health care and welfare services on a HUGELY EXPANDED POPULATION whilst forcing aging pioneer and merdeka generations to work (until they drop dead on the job) WITH FASTER AND FASTER DWINDLING PURCHASING POWER as the age/year progresses?

    IT IS FAKE ECONOMY TO DRESS UP GDP STATISTICS – serving no other purposes – in effect a stupid puppy eating its own sh*t of coprohagia economics.

    Deceiving Merdeka and Pioneer generations also strongly suspected of serving a hidden agenda to delay CPF repayment back to peasants to even later years – a lot of “retirees otherwise” would NEVER SEE THE DAYLIGHT OF THEIR CPF SAVING except in the sleep inside their coffins ready for cremation.

    CAVE-MEN AND CAVE-WOMEN DON’T THINK, only dreaming, fantasizing their delusion EVERYDAY of bigger and bigger mortgage thinking that it is WEALTH CREATION INSTEAD POVERTY IMPRISONMENT OF A BUBBLE ECONOMY supported by foreign influx is inherently unsustainable.

    Haigen-Diaz: an economy built on mortgages where the payments would escalate over time, is doomed to fail.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble rouser

    IF WE ARE NOT NEAR THE PLUNGE OF PROPERTY MARKET next down cycle, we are nearly there now.


    Dr Sing Tien Foo, Director NUS Insitute of Real Estate and Urban Studies
    : Should the economy slump and incomes fall, housing demand and prices will naturally follow….. Those who are highly leveraged or have taken on more loans than they can handle will face rising debt and mortgage default risks.

    Here is CNBC latest update on the state of LEE-jiapore economy.

    Singapore second-quarter GDP falls 3.3%, cuts 2019 growth forecast

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/singapore-economy-q2-gdp-falls-3point3percent-on-quarter-cuts-2019-forecast.html

    Key points

    - Singapore slashed its full-year economic growth forecast on Tuesday, as global conditions were seen worsening and final second-quarter data showed the economy shrank 3.3% on the quarter.

    - The government cut its forecast range for the city-state’s gross domestic product to zero to 1% from its previous estimate for 1.5% to 2.5%.

    - Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the final reading to show a 2.9% fall in GDP.

    WITHOUT THOSE MASSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE REBUILDING – HDB carparks dig and rebuild and dig again, and roadways re-do repeatedly etc etc – Leejiapore GDP numbers must be negative growth as other sectors sunk.

    HOW CAN LEE-JIAPORE PROPERTY MARKET BE SUSTAINABLE IN THE NEAR TERM other than hype, smoke and hot air??

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    There is no question that tariffs are sapping global demand. Look at the commodities sector, look at copper, look at energy stocks, materials stocks, chemicals stocks, retail, the list goes on and on. Corporations are guiding lower and pulling capital investment in the expectation that tariffs are a cost that consumers cannot subsidize and that there will be no employment or supply side growth from protectionism. This is what is at risk of happening, whether it’s clear protectionism or protectionism by manic tweet; it won’t work.

    Speaking of dim economic bulbs, Trump mostly relies on fellow triumvirs Kudlow and Navarro for tariff advice. Mnuchin is mostly a weather vane offering half baked excuses on behalf of Trump. Trump has also claimed that unpredictability is a useful feature of his negotiating style. That’s awfully convenient when the real truth is that he lacks any preparation beyond concern about optics.

    Anyway, Trump will carry on as usual: often wrong but seldom in doubt.

    Assume that over the next year, or even beyond, the market becomes pessimistic about development. In that situation, by cutting short-term interest rates, the Fed will expect to react, and these expectations will be reflected in dropping long-term rates. That’s why it’s so troubling to reverse the yield curve— the spread between long-term and short-term rates. This has always signaled an impending recession in the past.

    According to URA, the expected number of private residential completions (excluding ECs) in 2019 has dipped from 10,119(projection as of Q3 2018) to 8,926 (as of Q4 2018), possibly because more projects were completed earlier than expected. As the number of completions this year is around the same level as last year (9,112 units), just 2.0 per cent lower, rents may remain flat between -1% and 1% this year.

    Over the problem of “returned” units, there was a lot of hullabaloo. This is a misnomer because it is not only the case that units are returned, but the option to buy (OTP) lapses and another OTP re-issue occurs at the same time. Media headlines appeared to imply that something mischievous and untoward had impeded the fl ow of accurate sales information. On the contrary, I believe that the market in 2019 and 2020 is harboring a latent fuse because both endogenous and exogenous conditions have changed and are continuing to change (for the worse since July 2018.)

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    oxygen: And forced mortgage sales in LEE-jiapore is already on the rise BEFORE THIS ONSET OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN just underway. That means it can only get worst from here.

    @ oxygen

    Out of the 300 cases reported in the last six months, about 25% or 8% of homeowners were unable to refinance because they either failed to satisfy the complete debt maintenance ratio (TDSR) or the loan evaluation criteria of the bank or both.

    Most borrowers face shortened tenure with the strict TDSR rules, which often results in greater monthly mortgage demands. Those who in the past had financed their property with the assistance of a guarantor are now also needed to remove the guarantor as a mortgage. Such borrowers would then be subject to an evaluation of TDSR without the revenue of the guarantor.

    There are other problems: loans with tenures based on the age of the younger applicant undergo income-weighted age calculation, resulting in shorter tenure and greater monthly installments.

    Some borrowers may also have retired with no revenue except for the rents they receive each month-which have to undergo a 30 percent haircut, bringing them beyond the 60 percent limit, even though their excellent loans have been steadily downward over the years.

    If the debt servicing burden spirals into something unsustainable as the economy go negative, the only choice available to such mortgage holders is to sell off the estate-even if at a loss.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Haigen-Diaz: Out of the 300 cases reported in the last six months, about 25% or 8% of homeowners were unable to refinance because they either failed to satisfy the complete debt maintenance ratio (TDSR) or the loan evaluation criteria of the bank or both.

    Correction: about 25 or 8% of homeowners were unable to refinance. Apology.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen Diaz

    THOSE CAVE-MEN AND CAVE-WOMEN who gamble on such tight financial affordability deserves what they got or came their way thereafter.

    Haigen-Diaz: Out of the 300 cases reported in the last six months, about 25% or 8% of homeowners were unable to refinance because they either failed to satisfy the complete debt maintenance ratio (TDSR) or the loan evaluation criteria of the bank or both.

    Anyone with investment experience must long know that the trough (bear market) last a LOT LONGER THAN THE NEXT UPTURN. Caught on the wrong end of the bet, you need a HUGE LAYER OF FAT to ride out the stormy upheaval before the next relief upturn and escape.

    OTHERWISE IT IS THE END.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen Diaz

    IT IS NOT JUST ME BEING PESSIMISTIC about the global economy, LEE-jiapore’s economy and particularly its bubbly en-bloc stimulated (hype, smoke and hot air as Ku Swee Yong now calls it) property market, OTHER FINANCIAL MARKET “REALISTS” SEE THE SAME DARKNESS OF CRAZY OPTIMISM in the social media too.

    Mainstream media is always behind the curve and it is the CAVE-MEN AND CAVE-WOMEN all blind-sight as sotong (squids). Here they come with headline reads AFTER THE FACT OF REALITY HITS THEIR FACE.

    Singapore is heading for a recession. The trade war is hurting

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/13/economy/singapore-gdp-recession-trade-war/index.html

    The Ministry of Trade and Industry said it expected that Singapore will “likely to continue to face strong headwinds for the rest of the year.”

    Me thinks the party could be about to commence soon.

    oxygen: IF WE ARE NOT NEAR THE PLUNGE OF PROPERTY MARKET next down cycle, we are nearly there now.

    @ Smoke should be thankful and grateful that he has NOT YET committed, so he can at least have the chance OPPORTUNITY of buying cheaper IF HE DARE THE RISKS SOON AND GAME TO TAKE THE PLUNGE.

    I WISH @smoke THE BEST OF HIS/HER LUCK.

    smoke: To all the great forcasters,isnt several years of predicting a property downturn too lenient to oneself?

    Rabble rousers are arguing that they are not wrong?

    The rest of us is watching the unfolding drama for entertainment and social media discourse only.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen Diaz & rabble rouser.

    TAKE A LOOK AT THIS – Marketwatch headline read.

    Dow tumbles 800 points in biggest one day fall of year on global economic growth slowdown.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-down-over-300-points-on-global-growth-concerns-yield-curve-inversion-2019-08-14?mod=mw_latestnews&mod=mw_theo_homepage

    Marketwatch : The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 800 points on Wednesday, its biggest one-day fall this year, after data showed world economic growth slowing further, undermined by President Trump’s trade protectionism, leading the U.S. Treasury yield curve to invert and flash a recession warning signal

    Like rabble-rouser, Haigen Diaz is correct of these observations

    Haigen-Diaz: There is no question that tariffs are sapping global demand. Look at the commodities sector, look at copper, look at energy stocks, materials stocks, chemicals stocks, retail, the list goes on and on

    EXCEPT FOR GOLD – COUNTER CYCLICAL – to industrial metals and bond yields – I noticed NEARLY ALL GRAPHITE, LITHIUM AND COBALT STOCKS THUNDERING DOWN in the last two month. These are metals sensitive to electric car battery demand, suggesting that big ticket consumer demand has its wheel fallen off.

    The signs forward of global economic outlook is ominous to say the least.

    Property market in Lee-jiapore looks vulnerable to me.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
Member Services
Self-SupportMembers Login
Sponsored Advertisement

Search On TR Emeritus
Sponsored Advertisement

Most Recent Comments
  • lying pap S$m thieving liars: when it comes to S$m there is no saint, not a single one, especially pap folks whose...
  • The Other Hard Truths: Simply put, everything that the Dowager touches turns into shit. And Singaporeans are made to...
  • Homeless Cat: Best President: The people only want the best President. They don’t care about his or her race or...
  • Police CLOSE DOWN: Use SCOOT to deliver instead?
  • mike: I disagree with you! Regime change may be first step but not really can ‘guarantee’ independent...
  • I Too Kana Ill Treatment: Me too kana ill treatment in NS. Now I grow up, I want to kill those who ILL treat me and I...
  • Dr. Chan: ‘White Horses’ voting for PAP is understandable. But if you are a conscript and family members...
  • Best President: The people only want the best President. They don’t care about his or her race or religion.
  • TruBlu: Whatever! Why sgs must go around delivering food for a living? Why cant the govt return decent paying jobs to...
  • About rulers and the ruled: Prophet Muhammad s.a.w. said: “The best of your leaders are those whom you love and...
  • Harder Truths: No despot ever thinks he is wrong. No point talking to him. If he is not shown the door now then he...
  • My Smart Doggie: @NotMyProblem: My doggie also don’t like to poop on the free newspapers. So I try putting...
  • Don't Lie Pinky: If we are really concerned that A Malay should take turn to be the President, then since the first...
  • Harder Truths: I saw a PMD rider with a T-shirt sporting the words ‘Will kill for food’ on a delivery...
  • Harder Truths: Mr Magoo also said he has 20/20 eyesight. Will you let him drive you anywhere?
  • Harder Truths: The problem is not the PMD per se – this is just an inanimate object. The people riding it are...
Announcements
Advertisements
Advertisements
Visitors Statistic
Latest Statistic