Electric cars are about lifestyle

I am confused with the statement by the environment minister that electric cars are about “lifestyle” and does not help to combat climate change. Read the article here.

Let me deal with the points raised by the minister.

a) The minister mentioned that it is difficult to provide charging facility for electric cars. I suggest that this should be left to the car owner. Those who live in landed properties and in private condos with reserved parking lot should be able to install their own charging facility.

b) Due to the small size of Singapore, owners should be able to charge their car at home and the charge should be adequate to last a whole day.

c) While the govt wish to focus on public transport as the primary strategy to deal with climate change, there will still be a million cars running on the road. Surely, the electric cars are more climate friendly than the gasoline cars? If this is not so, why are many governments  giving financial incentives for owners to convert to electric cars?

d) If electric cars are not the solution to climate change, why are we inviting Dyson to build electric cars in Singapore as stated in this article. Furthermore, are we giving incentives and grants for Dyson to set up their facility in Singapore?

I hope that the environment minister can clarify the above points. Minister Masagos, are you listening?

Note - For the sake of transparency, I declare that I have a very small investment in Tesla. It is too small to give me any conflict of interest. But this investment make me understand electric car more than an ordinary lay person.

Tan Kin Lian

 

 

yyy
SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENT
Loading...

29 Responses to “Electric cars are about lifestyle”

  • RDB:

    Electric comes from natural energy sources. As such, they still contribution to climate change Mr. TKL. Only difference is they are now contributing to it at the source locations. True or not.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Dyson Investor:

    @ Tan Kin Lian

    I have shares in Dyson. So what say you?

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • rukidding:

    Ha,ha,…have a “Massage n go”….get the point ?

    No need “brain work”…just massage and go collect your well deserved pay !…dont ask too many questions.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • tan ah tan, so?:

    what is your problem?

    unless clown pap stops you from electric car, you have no problem.

    anyway, as long as you have car, you do fine because car lite is not meant for you or 30% OPPO. car lite is meant for pap ministers and their plps.

    unless you are pap plp, what is your problem? just buy electric car if you like it. for us, we like VW Audi and Infiniti. we no like electric car because we live in over priced Aljunied HDB rental unit.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Darth Vader:

    tkl, how shall we put this? OWNING A MINISCULE AMOUNT OF SHARES IN TESLA DOES NOT MEAN YOU KNOW MORE ABOUT ELECTRIC CARS THAN AN AVERAGE LAYMAN!!!! That’s like saying you invested money into your friend’s hawker stall means you know more about cooking hawker food than the average person!!!! Electric cars produce no carbon emissions????!!!! ABSOLUTE BULLSHIT!!!! If anything, they actually ADD MORE carbon emissions than a fossil fuel car! Why? You don’t know? Thought you’re the world’s wisest and greatest expert on anything and everything under the sun? Certainly all the crap you keep posting here indicates that you really think that way!!!!

    So WHY do electric cars actually add more carbon emissions then? Simple! The electricity that they run on must be generated. It goes without saying that the more electric cars there are, the more electricity must be generated to power them. And HOW is this electricity produced? BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS OF COURSE!!!! You NEVER knew this tkl? The ONLY way to produce electricity in such large amounts WITHOUT large amounts of carbon emissions are to use hydroelectric dams (not possible in Singapore due to the size and elevation of our rivers), geothermal energy (maybe we can ask Indonesia to produce it for us since Singapore is not volcanic in case you don’t know this tkl) and nuclear. Wind and solar energy output efficiencies are too low and erratic to be a reliable supplier of electricity to meet the demands of thousands of electric cars

    You know WHAT your problem is tkl? You’re a vain, arrogant, egotistical narcissistic old fool who thinks he’s a genius when everyone else KNOWS is a MORON!!!! Really, since you’re SO in love with yourself, you should just engage in coitus with yourself and leave the rest of here alone without having to put up with more of your insane lunatic ravings!!!!

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Harder Truths:

    Do you know what it takes to install, run and maintain an electrical grid? Clearly not.

    All electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels – so how is that helping climate change?

    You had shares in Tesla – so does it mean you are somehow responsible for unfortunate victims burnt to crisp in those exploding cars? Are you burning money for them this Hungry Ghost month?

    I expect you to give a full accounting of all your investments on TRE to avoid further misery. Clearly we need to find out more about your unfortunate life.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • TruBlu:

    TELL YOU WHAT.
    in the end all.its really not about electric or petrol cars.

    its how manufacturers build cars and if those cars can last???
    look at simpler things like your ewashing machines.
    my first one costed me afraction of what i am paying these days.
    and,their LIFE-SPAN GET SHORTER AND SHORTER!

    SAME FOR TV sets.
    what about mobile phones and computers?
    ppl who call out loud for GREEN,GREEN,GREEN AND DISDAIN USE OF PLASTIC BAGS ALSO KEEP CHANGING THEIR MOBILE PHONES ETC.

    WHAT IS GREEN AND truly green?

    too much hypocrisy …its about SOUNDING NICE AND MAKING MORE MONEY?

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Pls Reveal All Investment:

    Can TKL and Masagos please list down all your investment so that we know where you are coming from. Conflict Of Interest ?

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Lye Khuen Way:

    I was just as confused as Mr Tan KL when I came across the Minister’s statement about electric cars being a “lifestyle thing”.

    Sure, only those in landed properties would have readily available power outlets to charge their electric cars.

    I would expect the coverment to initiate the building /installation of charging points in HDB estates unless they are only comfortable with full Electric Cars like the Nissan Leaf?

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Lifestyle my freaking arse. These cheapo cars are aplenty on the roads in China, especially rural areas and costs as low as SG$5000 a piece.

    Talk until as if these electro cars are some big fiack thingy that only the rich and famous can afford. lol

    Some more, specialised charging outlets can install at Petrol Stations like what China is doing, what space constrains he toking about?

    Minister office got no internet connection or he dunno how to use Yahoo or Google issit? Tsk Tsk.

    Back to Mr Tan, if you use a home charger, it would take HOURS (normally 8 hours for a full charge – unless you modify the charger and up the A) compared to if the charge were to be done at a specialised kiosk (1 to 2 hours).

    .

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    No future for Electric Car in S’pore! Don’t be fooled. It can’t be a lifestyle nor a trend because going through life in S’pore is already so hard & would be even harder still. When housing are so expensive, cost of living are equally expensive & wages are so fiacking low!

    Besides, S’pore is currently too overbuilt & too congested; too overdeveloped to simply tear up existing roads & cable-laying to provide recharging points in providing an electric grid infrastructural network for Electric cars. Whose going to pay for all these stuff? Increase GST again? Up the road tax?

    Electric cars might end up being only niche products for wealthy households. And that’s about it!

    The future would likely be a car-lite society, public transportation with taxis, ride share supplementing “the last mile” stretch would dominate the landscape. Food delivery systems, online sales platform would reduced the need to travel further ie. Shopping for groceries, clothing, etc.

    Increasingly, personal mobility vehicles like cars are becoming too expensive for shrinking household budgets. Besides with emerging technology, taxis & ride share might even be autonomous vehicles (no drivers required) while delivery done by drones to special drop off points. As more technology users come on board, the user cost might drop further especially as manual labout cost is eliminated using AI, automation & robots. Owning cars might seemed too expensive by then!

    Note: James Dyson is in S’pore because of BREXIT. He is hedging his STG£ wealth with SG$ investments. £ is likely to depreciate further post-BREXIT because UK loses EU markets. After BREXIT situation clears up & the £ stabilises, he would likely relocate back to the UK!
    Dyson electric car still at either conception or infancy developmental stage. Good for him to get some S’pore govt grants to give Global Publicity to S’pore Govt. Whether the Dyson electric car would be a success is questionable? What do you think?

    KL Tan like our SWFs tend to buy overinflated, overvalued US stocks like Tesla. They seemed to possess the same mindsets that cuts across the typical S’pore investing eco-system ie. Crowd investing. And Tesla’s share price had been dropping!

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Except for giving some wealthy environmental credentials, the Tesla seems destined for a barn when the government subsidies run out. The LA Times recently reported that Tesla is supported by $5 Billion of taxpayer’s money. And savings through charging batteries is a scam.

    Anyone who has studied the laws of thermodynamics knows that there is a loss of energy at each transaction. Fossil fuels are mostly used to generate the electricity that charges the batteries. But if you insist, add in the true cost of government subsidized green energy from generation to transmission. Without the government subsidies on both ends Tesla is an economic bust. And not forgetting waiting around for hours or overnight to charge a car battery is untenable.

    If I were a Tesla investor, which I am not, I would be so not due to its auto products, which are currently too expensive to disrupt anything other than the bank accounts of their buyers, but for its battery division. And even then, I would recognize that I would be placing a bet that Musk has developed a sustainable advantage in battery technology that other, far larger companies haven’t been able to develop. Key word being sustainable.

    My guess, without taking the time to analyze Tesla’s financials, is that the way Tesla allocates direct costs of goods sold and indirect overhead costs shows positive gross profits but negative net profits. I.e., the marginal profit of producing one additional vehicle is positive. However there is so much “overhead” required to maintain the facilities where that production takes place, the sales network, etc., that the on the whole the company is losing money. If that’s the case, then Tesla’s eventual profitability is a question of scale — can they produce enough marginally profitable vehicles to pay for all their expensive overhead?

    At current PE, the risks to those future dividends don’t appear to be fully captured, or even remotely considered. As with so many names these days, the stock trades without regard to fundamental analysis. One has to take a leap of faith to expect the kind of growth, sustainable growth, required to rationalize many of these stocks prices. That’s not my cup of tea. Or, make that T. Tesla. Tesla may indeed someday invent a better battery or change transportation, but probably not in Tan Kin Lian’s lifetime.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    Hey Bro, Winds of change are starting to whip up with the escalation of Trump vs Xi Jingpin “war of wills” re: the ongoing US-China trade war. They have defy conventional Mainstream expectations of a swift resolution & a “back to business” outcome. And this is creating pain everywhere!

    Even G7 summit leaders were imploring Trump to “back-off” on the trade war with China. It is no longer politics nor economics but a totally personality driven crusade to address past US policies which he claims to have given away US competitive advantages. But hey! the US had enjoyed a decadent standard of living for decades inspite of that.

    The implications from this deepening conflict will be a deep division & many scarred Industries. The Automotive Industry is a highly Globalised Industry with very long supply chains to complement & supplement their production process! They are highly vulnerable to trade conflicts & tariff situations.

    Already the Global car manufacturing industry are in a state of retreat – a near crisis situation in manufacturing; the Global depressionary situations for sales globally.

    In a recessionary environment, few household budgets have the means for a new car replacement! New car dealers facing a depressing situation of clogging up their showroom space with unsaleable cars & vehicles.

    The question here is whether the Car manufacturing industry are facing Cyclical Business downturn or a more ominous one, a fundamental shift against car ownership & of the very purpose of a car itself – an Age of Extinction?

    Many Millenials being more eco-sensitive & of course, less economically predispose to buying cars. And Cars are a product of economic times – good economic times create more discretionary spending & upsizing. In today’s exceedingly poor middle-class to the mass economy, cars are the last thing in household budgets.

    And the electric car is just a derivative of the ICE car itself. They will not solve the eco-system questions of carbon emissions nor fossil fuel depletion; neither the traffic congestion & amount of time wasted in commuting.

    It just another wishful thought of an Utopia with boundless economic choices & futuristic modes of mobility. We forget that housing cost were already in crisis modes – the West having homeless people; water shortages & food production in crisis, etc.

    Haigen-Diaz: One has to take a leap of faith to expect the kind of growth, sustainable growth, required to rationalize many of these stocks prices. That’s not my cup of tea. Or, make that T. Tesla. Tesla may indeed someday invent a better battery or change…

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Rabble-rouser: Winds of change are starting to whip up with the escalation of Trump vs Xi Jingpin “war of wills” re: the ongoing US-China trade war. They have defy conventional Mainstream expectations of a swift resolution & a “back to business” outcome. And this is creating pain everywhere!

    @ Rabble-rouser

    It is embarrassing to watch Mr. Trump at these meetings. The lies…about the China phone call, Mnuchin’s body language gave that one away. China declined to confirm phone calls with the U.S. that President Donald Trump claimed happened over the weekend, during which Trump said China indicated it wanted to work toward a trade deal.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-27/after-24-hours-china-still-unaware-of-calls-mentioned-by-trump?srnd=premium-asia

    Latest news.
    Singapore Faces Rising Tide of Bad Debt With Record Bonds Maturing.
    Singapore firms are likely to see more soured debt as the trade-reliant economy takes a hit from U.S.-China tensions.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-26/singapore-seen-facing-tide-of-distress-as-trade-war-hits-economy?srnd=premium-asia

    The French resort city hosting the G-7 Summit is not a meeting of world leaders but rather a family gathering of responsible mature adults and a cantankerous, impulsive and outspoken “grandpa”. “Don’t upset grandpa, don’t get him mad,” – as immediate calm and relief came when trump was not in the room. Then it’s, “Let’s get down to real business,” as talk became rational and civil.

    It seems to me that the purpose of the G7 is to clean up the mess that Trump has made in the world: Iran, North Korea, the Climate, and Trade, to name a few. Since he never accepts responsibility for his mistakes and hasn’t shown one ounce of introspection throughout his presidency, one could legitimately question why Trump is even invited.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-Diaz:
    Yes Bro! I’ve also came across this article, too. About SG$12 billion worth of corporate bonds are coming due & need to be refinanced by next year, 2020.

    The usual frontline suspects from the Global Economy downturn eg, Offshore & Marine (euphemistically for Oil & Gas); Electronics (MMI defaulted) & Logistics. We can all thank Donald Trump for that.

    Also, some Debt Restructuring Experts are already including Construction companies & certain Highly Leveraged Developers into the mix. These are the next in line domino tiles in the cascading factor.

    Cashflow tightness in the business sector spilled out into the open after debt-distressed Hyflux was revealed to be unable to even pay for their employees medical expenses covered under a medical insurance contract with Raffles Health Insurance, a subsidiary of SGX-listed Raffles Medical Group.
    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/insurer-seeking-to-recover-medical-fees-hyflux-failed-to-pay

    PM LHL’s 2019 ND Rally speech touched on the wrong topic (Climate Change) when the real issue was the growing Systemic Risk from collapsing cash flows (money velocity, settlements) from a wrecked Trading Economy caused by Trump.

    Central Banks interest rate setting mechanism are facing resistance from global capital providers who are voting with their feet!

    And in 2020, whether there will be any appetite left after SG govt, Temasek & SIA all gobbled up a fairly substantial amount of liquidity ie. accumulated capital & Ma ‘N Pa savings from the market early this year.

    I did find it coincidental that they did all their fund raising ahead of the impending refinancing schedule of maturing S’pore corporate bonds.

    The QE-fuelled debt market over the last decade had created many Zombie-styled debt dependency companies conditioned on paying off interest payments to ward off debtors without any real capacity to draw down, pay off their debts.

    It would seem that their only hope is the perpetual continuation of the low interest rate environment & their wishful thinking that all debts can be easily refinanced (Wall of liquidity from Central Bank QE’s).

    No different from an individual income dependent wage earner with substantial credit card debts. They only rollover on a monthly basis with minimum sum payment; hoping to find another credit card issuer to refinance before hitting the card limits.

    Haigen-Diaz: Latest news.
    Singapore Faces Rising Tide of Bad Debt With Record Bonds Maturing.
    Singapore firms are likely to see more soured debt as the trade-reliant economy takes a hit from U.S.-China tensions…

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Rabble-rouser: Also, some Debt Restructuring Experts are already including Construction companies & certain Highly Leveraged Developers into the mix. These are the next in line domino tiles in the cascading factor.

    @ Rabble-rouser

    Bro, I recall you mentioned about CAVE-MEN & CAVE-WOMEN of LEE-Jiapore (credit to oxygen) flocking to buy up recent launches in anticipation of ‘flipping’ on HK housing buyers.

    Well, I thought the same & you’re right. As many may have assumed, the housing market in Singapore does not turn out to be the beneficiary of the increasingly heavy demonstrations in Hong Kong. Instead, shareholders look for smaller real estate economies such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Taiwan.

    “The Hong Kong protests are like hitting a beehive with a stick,” “The bees buzz out of the hive, but they’re not all flying to Singapore. They’re going everywhere else instead.” – Savills

    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/hong-kong-investors-shun-singapore-homes-for-cheaper-property-in-malaysia-taiwan

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-Diaz:
    Bro! I was exposed to real estate at an age when my Peers were busy trying to date girls or were going out enjoying themselves on their parent’s generous pocket monies. Ha-ha-ha, I was a penniless fish swimming against the flow.

    I had an unconventional life (a rebel, never listen to advice type). And you know, these attributes don’t sit well with Authoritarian, Conformist S’pore! Rather than make an emotional scene, I’d figure out to trade against conventional wisdom of the day. Try imagining people calling you stupid for making unconventional decisions especially in S’pore. Where conformism is so strong & there are never a shortage of “good advice” from people; doubting Thomas as well!

    Unlike many, I applied a lot of theoretical first principles I’ve learnt (either tested or discarded) & a hunger to research, observe & understand markets – in Equities & later, properties. You had to be analytical to reduce risks!

    Equities relied too much on management effort & on Michael Porter’s 5 competitive forces. And it doesn’t really work for Asian equity markets – very few growth type stocks. And you can’t leverage much on overseas stocks because of forex risk!

    Because for many entrepreneurs & businessmen, a public listing itself was an endgame. I had a relative who believed in Asian equities inspite of the numerous setbacks suffered eg. CLOB, S Chips, suspensions & delistings, etc.

    And I could see from this relative that Equity players loved crowing about their few winners but kept silent on their many losers. There had to be a better way of generating wealth!

    The S’pore Property game uses a CAPM model for my analytical process. The Alpha meant seeking out undervalued properties with strong rentals or a potential EnBloc type. The Beta for S’pore property market depends; low Beta during an elongated peak price period but a high & volatile Beta when in a crisis situation – sudden price crash. And that is the game I’m looking at!

    Haigen-Diaz: Bro, I recall you mentioned about CAVE-MEN & CAVE-WOMEN of LEE-Jiapore (credit to oxygen) flocking to buy up recent launches in anticipation of ‘flipping’ on HK housing buyers.

    Well, I thought the same & you’re right.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Rabble-rouser: The S’pore Property game uses a CAPM model for my analytical process. The Alpha meant seeking out undervalued properties with strong rentals or a potential EnBloc type. The Beta for S’pore property market depends; low Beta during an elongated peak price period but a high & volatile Beta when in a crisis situation – sudden price crash. And that is the game I’m looking at!

    @ Rabble-rouser

    What a coincidence. We’re peers in the same game! Had my PMI-PBA during my stint in the US. Recently I come home to roost because my two investments got enbloc (can’t go into details due to sensitivities). Like you, I am also looking for that price crash.

    The problem is those complaining to you (& oxygen)about property prices not dropping is because they conflate price with value when it should be value that has dropped while the price is an inflated bubble waiting to burst.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen Diaz & @ Rabble rouser

    ME THINKS THAT A PROPERTY BUBBLE ONLY COMES INTO FRUITION price runs ahead of “value” ( itself a subjective valuation of a moving feast). Which is why I think cavemen and cavewomen in buying their accommodation needs should only buy when the property market crashed in a deep recession. Except for a few lucky or shrewd investors relying on on bloc opportunity, property speculation of new hot launches is a high risk gamble of very low returns available – particularly in a world of negative interest rate environment.

    Haigen-Diaz: @ Rabble-rouser

    What a coincidence. We’re peers in the same game! Had my PMI-PBA during my stint in the US. Recently I come home to roost because my two investments got enbloc (can’t go into details due to sensitivities). Like you, I am also looking for that price crash.

    The problem is those complaining to you (& oxygen)about property prices not dropping is because they conflate price with value when it should be value that has dropped while the price is an inflated bubble waiting to burst.

    US 30 yr treasury is sub-2% yield and German negative 20-yr bond was way undersubscribed. That tells me even negative interest rate borrowings cannot yield an annualised return of 2% nominal for 30 yr entreprenuerial risks exposure. There is either a moribund investment opportunities or no interest in such entrepreneurial risks undertaking, hence no employment and income opportunity to fund all spending including property. Where got upside whatever valuation model once prefers.

    SAFETY HATCHES IS BATTEN DOWN.

    Syrian billionaire buys Gerry Harvey’s $45m Byron Bay resort

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/syrian-billionaire-buys-gerry-harvey-s-45m-byron-bay-resort-20190809-p52fqs.html

    The money will come handy to shore up his business capital raising to support it in the face of gloomy, maybe treacherous economy outlook ahead.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/harvey-norman-kicks-off-173m-share-sale-as-sales-at-its-stores-fell-20190830-p52mcd.html

    I am also doubtful of the CAPM valuation for all asset classes.

    https://financeformulas.net/Capital-Asset-Pricing-Model.html

    The ALPHA (risks free rate is now negative), so it is mathematically impossible to compute your BETA.

    STOCKS, BONDS AND PROPERTIES ARE INFLATED, IT WILL COME CRASHING DOWN.

    EXACTLY WHEN, I can’t tell. The risks is tilted heavily on the downside. Those heavily in debt has no escape.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-Diaz:
    Hey Mate! Small world indeed! Same minds who can think alike!

    Only people who can “understand the game” & recognised the “ingenious” math formula I just describe can affiliate.

    Everything in this present-day market situation are overpriced/conflated to the point of being utterly ridiculous.

    There are simply no values to be reap in this current “investment” market based on asset prices.

    At this moment in time, only scalpers or “up-&-down” market traders are the only ones taking enormous risks trading the yo-yo stockmarkets moved by Central Banks; by Trump on Twitter & by XJP on Xinhua.

    For S’pore Properties currently, the transaction cost are simply too high (ABSD, ASSD, etc) while the % in capital price movement ie. appreciation non-existent & yields worse than pathetic – actually disguised capital depreciation given S’pore’s high inflation rate [suppressed CPI numbers] & a horrible rental market plagued with declining rents, oversupply of units.

    (Perceived) value is very important for investing! It comes with the territory of being experienced, being open-minded & having cross-border exposure across many different countries especially SEA, North Asia & increasingly, OZ & NZ!

    Watch China’s BRI (Big road map like URA MasterPlans)! And Chinese investors like to crowd-invest like a herd.

    Property investing is becoming very internationalised. But most S’porean “wannabe” property investors were still very parochial with their views of S’pore property laughable to any shrewd investor.

    Haigen-Diaz: The problem is those complaining to you (& oxygen)about property prices not dropping is because they conflate price with value when it should be value that has dropped while the price is an inflated bubble waiting to burst.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Haigen-Diaz:

    oxygen: ME THINKS THAT A PROPERTY BUBBLE ONLY COMES INTO FRUITION price runs ahead of “value” ( itself a subjective valuation of a moving feast).

    When capital development becomes a by-product of a casino’s activities, the job is likely to be bad. – Keynes

    @ oxygen, Rabble-rouser

    The economists ‘theoretical model of a rational balance of risk against rewards for each investor—the so-called “Model for Capital Asset Pricing” or “CAPM”–is magnificently elegant. If one can accept this premise, it will also be extremely useful. In addition to telling you how to pick your portfolio, CAPM tells you how to prize financial derivatives from a financial industry point of view.

    That might sound strange as CAPM and its broader work were founded on the presumption that investors make mathematically optimal investment decisions with the information at their disposal. Eugene Fama of the Chicago Business Center therefore wrote that “actual market prices are, based on all information available, the best estimates of inherent values.” Fama called it a “efficient market” market with this virtue, and argued that the data showed that actual financial markets are very much so in the real world.

    Not all macro-economists were willing to take this path: many became self-described New Keynesians, who continued to believe in the government’s active role in Singapore. Yet, most of the time, they accepted the notion that investors and consumers are rational and that markets are generally right, the belief that financial markets could be trusted.

    Buffet has a way — find out what a company really worth and buy it, if you are able to get it cheap — but it is not a way that works with anyone.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Realistically:

    @ Darth Vader:
    August 26, 2019 at 8:57 pm

    “You know WHAT your problem is tkl? You’re a vain, arrogant, egotistical narcissistic old fool who thinks he’s a genius when everyone else KNOWS is a MORON!!!!”

    I agree with your perception of TKL. I’ve said that he thinks he is too clever by half.

    He is just SUPERFICIAL & rambles on any and almost all topic/issue but he thinks he is very clever & knowledgeable.

    That’s why I generally don’t bother with his inanity but visit this thread because I noted about Rabble-rouser’s postings.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Realistically:

    @ Rabble-rouser:
    August 31, 2019 at 9:50 pm

    I’m not sure about applying the CAPM model to the S’pore property market which I have been following for decades. I won’t go into my personal details about it though.

    However, I would like to caution that ours is quite a small mkt when taking into consideration that there is TRILLIONS floating around looking for decent returns. The latest I read is that US$17 trillions are invested in NEGATIVE yielding bonds.

    Concomitantly, it is the LOW to negative interest rates which keep the property mkt afloat……………but I’m not that optimistic about the SINKaPOOR’s property mkt where rentals are in decline.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-Diaz, Realistically:
    Read this first:
    https://jesscscott.wordpress.com/2015/09/09/pap-property/
    S’pore Property isn’t all about the PAP Govt or their GLCs (Ascendas, CapitaLand, Keppel, Mapletree, etc) even if they controlled 80% of S’pore land & properties. But unlike the S’pore govt, PAP Ministers are also cash flushed & owned considerable properties (I think).

    The 2 biggest group of S’pore Oligarchs are the Bankers (the Wees (UOB) & the Lees + the Tans (OCBC)); & the Property Meisters (CDL, FEO) with a lot of johnny-cum-lately cowboys. They have plenty of gunpowder. These guys are in Forbes richest list!

    For them, they have are a lot of monies vested in the property market [ie. outstanding housing loans, vacant landbanks, unsold units, rental units held as Investments, etc) for them to even contemplate the thought of allowing the total utter destruction of this market. It had been an invaluable resource which time after time had made so much money for them.

    The saying goes, “If you owe the bank SG$1 million, you (the borrower) can’t sleep at night; but if you owe the bank SG$100 million, it is the banker (the lender) who can’t sleep at night!” Ha-ha-ha-ha!

    @ Realistically:
    Not CAPM, Mate. Rather it is the Beta (% change in price ∆ factor ie. relative volatility) that I’m watching. Alpha is the undervalued component (that you have to research it yourself) which together with Beta (∆ volatility) will give you the highest return on your invested capital. CAPM is always dynamic, never a static measure!

    Like a car enthusiast whose driving a turbocharged car will say, “we haven’t reach the car’s full boost yet!”. Something like the laws of Thermodynamics which you want to achieve “something (maximum payout) for almost nothing (ie. minimum invested)” effect using certain natural laws to create an advantage for yourself. You want to overachieve without exerting too much on yourself!

    In this case, using precious capital, natural laws to work hard for you, & not be limited by your physical efforts!

    Human potential is obviously limited to a % of 24/7/365 parameters. But so many don’t understand it well! They think good education & hard work will deliver them to prosperity. Fat hope!

    And that is why Politics will forever fail – their gains were made through tax payers monies; through mindless Entitlements & Privileges. Bankrupt of ideas, void in mental gymnastics – the very stuff that you need to create self awareness, have achievements & for personal victory.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz & Rabble-rouser

    MATES, CAPM ELEGANCE OR OTHERWISE depends on one’s interpretation of “informationally efficient” in asset pricing relative to “risks”. It is a simple (though mathematically complex) model in a complicated world.

    Eugene F. Fama, efficient markets, and the Nobel Prize

    https://review.chicagobooth.edu/magazine/winter-2013/eugene-fama-efficient-markets-and-the-nobel-prize

    Haigen-Diaz: The economists ‘theoretical model of a rational balance of risk against rewards for each investor—the so-called “Model for Capital Asset Pricing” or “CAPM”–is magnificently elegant. If one can accept this premise, it will also be extremely useful

    How can CAPM quantify political risks in equities/financial market? I am in agreement with @ realistically on this count.

    Realistically: I’m not sure about applying the CAPM model to the S’pore property market which I have been following for decades

    I GOT BADLY BRUTALISED BY DR. MAHATHIR’s sudden decision and prata flipping on CLOB share suspension. Everything I touched lost at least 80% or more of values, often woke up from bed staring at ceiling wondering where my $1 breakfast money is going to come from.

    POST-SCRIPT, I WAS LATER TO DISCOVER THAT EUGENE AND FRENCH, using the same data set as Miller-Merton-Modigliani, reworked through found contradictory results!! So by the turn of the century, EMH is discredited on my book. It took others much latter to realize the elegance of CAPM does not lives up to its promise of efficient asset pricing. Here is one.

    David Dreman :Ironically, the father of efficient markets, Eugene Fama, began distancing himself from this famous theory years ago. In 1992 he and Kenneth French wrote a paper stating that there was no link between volatility (risk) and return. Said Fama, “Beta as the sole variable in explaining returns on stocks is dead.”

    Debunking Beta

    https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0927/finance-david-dreman-fixed-income-watch-debunking-beta.html#f49c4ca7bbdd

    It rings the bell for me. It now refresh my mind on how Black-Schole option pricing (resting on CAPM construct) is also flawed in mining industry.

    Valuing Mineral Opportunities as Options

    http://www.ehrenworthsyme.com/strata/Docs/Valuationofmines.pdf

    HOW DO YOU PRICE BURIED MINERAL RESOURCES SIZE AWAITING EXPLORATION DRILLING discovery?

    to be continued.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz, @ Rabble-rouser

    NO HARVARD, CHICAGO, NUS TOP MBA graduate or their finance professor or any other PRETENDED MERITORIOUS SCHOLAR/S from any sovereign wealth fund can answer that question below.

    oxygen: HOW DO YOU PRICE BURIED MINERAL RESOURCES SIZE AWAITING EXPLORATION DRILLING discovery?

    In a practical world, CAPM and all its derivative finance theories are reduced to simplicity of irrelevance of what really is simple theory flawed application in a complex world.

    Finance professors in virtually all graduate business school are mostly void of practical exposure to the real world. And their ivory tower graduates often fall into slumber in fantasyland dreamworld.

    I supply here one simple real world example – Telfer copper gold mine in Western Australia. The adage of a cat has 9 lives has its parallel in a gold mine having multiple lives. Read this

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telfer_Mine

    Discovered in 1972, it was shut down in 2000 on account of mine depletio after 23 years of rich production.

    NEWCREST MINING BOUGHT IT FOR A PRICE OF A SONG AND DANCE IN A WHORE HOUSE and went on to exploration drilling. They hit huge bonanza gold reef and Telfer got another lease of life longer than the first. As at 2016 estimate of resources discovered – post mining depletion since 2002 – it was

    Mining Weekly:Proven and probable reserves at the Tefler Main Dome openpit as at December 31, 2015, were estimated at 40-million dry tonnes, grading 0.63 g/t of gold, and 34-million dry tonnes, grading 0.091% copper. The West Dome openpit had 84-million dry tonnes, grading 0.68 g/t of gold and 0.058% copper. Telfer underground had 24-million dry tonnes, grading 1.4 g/t of gold and 0.28% copper.

    https://www.miningweekly.com/article/telfer-mine-australia-2016-05-13

    Of course mineable (economically extractable) reserve must have gone up a lot more on account of much higher gold and copper prices since 2019.

    Even mining geologists can’t put a definitive figure into valuation of this huge Telfer gold mine, how can CAPM, its derivative option pricing models like Black-Scholes model, top MBA finance graduate from any Ivy League universities or their finance professor or ANY OTHER HYPOCRITICAL GENIUS FUND MANAGER FROM ANY SOVEREIGN FUNDS PUT AN ACCURATE VALUATION TO THIS MINE.

    PRICE CANNOT BE CONFLATED TO VALUE AS ALSO VALUE CANNOT BE CONFLATED TO PRICE.

    Bubbles form when markets are informationally inefficiently informed.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz & Rabble-rouser

    MATES, MY BEEF AGAINST CAPM and its babies/derivatives is found in the INTERNAL CONTRADICTIONS of those models and their assumptions (such as Black-Scholes option pricing of mining investments illuminated above with respect to Telfer gold mine/Newcrest Mining – these are “moving feasts”).

    Take a look at my weblink supplied.

    oxygen: I am also doubtful of the CAPM valuation for all asset classes.

    https://financeformulas.net/Capital-Asset-Pricing-Model.html

    The ALPHA (risks free rate is now negative), so it is mathematically impossible to compute your BETA.

    CAPM ASSERTS -

    EXPECTED RETURN = RISKS FREE + BETA multiplied by the residual of Return on market MINUS the risks free.

    Risk free ( I call this Alpha) is taken to be government long-term bonds.

    In practical applications IN TODAY ECONOMIC CLIMATE, the risks free rate is FICTION because your ALPHA is highly risky in negative territory in Japan, EU including Germany and still sinking).

    And since your Alpha is negative and sinking to incapable of determination, the CAPM is MATHEMATICALLY INELEGANT OF ESTIMATION of both ALPHA AND BETA residual.

    That is to say,

    expected return on any investment/portfolio = inestimable + Beta multiply by estimatable!!!

    CAPM in a world of negative interest rate environment is A FINANCE GHOST OF FICTION!!

    IN BLUNT LAYMAN TERMS, ALL THOSE VALUATION MODELS – CAPM OR ANY OTHER – IS DANGEROUSLY FLAWED OF APPLICATION IN A WORLD SINKING INTO NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT.

    Look at this..

    Germany for First Time Sells 30-Year Bonds Offering Negative Yields

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-for-first-time-sells-30-year-bonds-offering-negative-yields-11566385847

    My head goes bonkers!!

    It means to me this interpretation at the simplest level.

    oxygen: US 30 yr treasury is sub-2% yield and German negative 20-yr bond was way undersubscribed. That tells me even negative interest rate borrowings cannot yield an annualised return of 2% nominal for 30 yr enterprenuerial risks exposure. There is either a moribund investment opportunities or no interest in such entrepreneurial risks undertaking, hence no employment and income opportunity to fund all spending including property. Where got upside whatever valuation model once prefers.

    SAFETY HATCHES IS BATTEN DOWN.

    Negative interest rate is destroying global economy. Central banks have lost control of monetary policy relief while Trump is SCREWING.

    I AM FEARFUL!!

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ TRE Techie

    MATE, ILLUMINATING POST which give insights into why lithium stocks have been falling off the cliff in the last 12 months DESPITE ALL THE EMOTIONAL HYPED, SMOKE AND HOT AIR on lithium-battery technology which China is said to be promising of astronomical demand pressure that allegedly cannot be met with new mine supply from Australia and Argentina.

    TRE Techie: Lifestyle my freaking arse. These cheapo cars are aplenty on the roads in China, especially rural areas and costs as low as SG$5000 a piece.

    Talk until as if these electro cars are some big fiack thingy that only the rich and famous can afford. lol

    Some more, specialised charging outlets can install at Petrol Stations like what China is doing, what space constrains he toking about?

    Minister office got no internet connection or he dunno how to use Yahoo or Google issit? Tsk Tsk.

    Back to Mr Tan, if you u’s se a home charger, it would take HOURS (normally 8 hours for a full charge – unless you modify the charger and up the A) compared to if the charge were to be done at a specialised kiosk (1 to 2 hours).

    Just google the recent “share price history” of the world’s largest listed lithium stocks – albemarle, orecobre, galaxy resources or lithium mine development stock like Pilbara minerals.

    They all fall off the other side of the steep cliff. Which is why @ Rabble-rouser is correct of risks warning buying into “crowd-investing” stocks hyped out into bubbly proportion.

    Rabble-rouser: KL Tan like our SWFs tend to buy overinflated, overvalued US stocks like Tesla. They seemed to possess the same mindsets that cuts across the typical S’pore investing eco-system ie. Crowd investing. And Tesla’s share price had been dropping!

    Lithium prices have been falling and buyers of Tesla might be in for a long wait for their investment fruition if any.

    Falling Chinese electric car production wrenches lithium price

    https://www.mining.com/falling-chinese-electric-car-production-wrenches-lithium-price/

    and

    even the Australian government is pessimistic about lithium price outlook

    Australia govt’s lithium price outlook is bleak

    https://www.mining.com/australia-govts-lithium-price-outlook-is-bleak/

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz, @ rabble-rouser

    BEFORE THE ONSET OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT now infected the bond market to the tune of US$17 trillion, ALL VALUATION MODELS works on the presumption of positive risks-free rate (Alpha) except the very sick economy of Japan.

    Not anymore.

    THE WORLD HAS CHANGED. SO MUST ALL VALUATION METHODOLOGY AND PRESUMPTION in finance.

    What do you folks think?

    GD Star Rating
    loading...

Leave a Reply

 characters available


Scroll Down For More Interesting Stuff


Member Services
Self-SupportMembers Login
Sponsored Advertisement

Search On TR Emeritus
Sponsored Advertisement

Most Recent Comments
  • Left to australia: Guess this is class case of monkey see and monkey do what are they complaining about? Monkey see ,...
  • oxygen: @ Bbc BY WHOSE LAW DEFINITION is your assertion of 1 country 2 systems? Bbc: China so far keep to 1 country 2...
  • Bobo: We are interested in a future not gov by failed systems can or not.
  • Left to australia: oxygen: @ Blueview NOT A SINGLE PAPpypolitics and PAPpynomics ownself-print-ownself paycheck...
  • oxygen: @ vincent tan Grant is gift or semantic accounting in selling price inflated valuation? I am confused. Is the...
  • Went to Japan: A lot of new citizens are from India, Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam and PRCs…. PAPPY only cares...
  • Bobo: Any meaning for 2/3 oppoS and 1/3 PAP? If your handphone had lost its functionality, do you still think of...
  • Lei Sor Hai: Increae citizens = grow economy??
  • Asd: Think its racism
  • Lei Sor Hai: Fark that noisy female customer at Isetan Westgate. These are the typs that should br gagged by law.
  • oxygen: @ Left to australia CLAP CLAP CLAP, MATE, you beaut! Innovation emanating from a sea of creativity is life...
  • Good-for-nothings: Dont talk so much TCJ. What have you done all this while to make a difference in our sg or in the...
  • patriot of TUMASIK: Foreign Talent Mantra… not “Maranatha” the Evil One recite for fear of...
  • Haigen-Diaz: Haigen-Diaz: What they don’t ask is why Britain never instituted democratic reforms in Hong Kong...
Announcements
Advertisements
Advertisements
Visitors Statistic
Latest Statistic