Are we adopting the correct strategy to deal with the spread of coronavirus?

I listened to this video  where health minister Gan KY explaining about the coronavirus.

I was struck with the following points:

a) The risk of infection during the first 14 days (before the infected person shows symptoms) is actually quite small.

b) The infection rate is much higher when the infected person has symptoms, i.e. cough and sneeze.

If this is the case, it does seem that the current strategy of quarantine and contact tracing is less important than identifying infected persons who are already showing symptoms.

The question is – how many of these symptomatic persons are being treated now, and how many are in the community – not realizing that they are infected?

If there is a large number of infected persons with symptoms that are not identified, I suggest that our strategy is to identify them and to treat them early.

This is how they can be identified and treated.

a) Engage 2,500 workers to take temperature of people. Issue s QR coded card to each scanned person with normal temperature. This card will show the time and location of the temperature check.  These workers can be located in MRT stations, bus interchanges, malls, markets where there are large numbers of people.

b) Each worker can take 200 readings every hour or 1,000 readings on a 5 hour shift. The 2,500 workers can take 2.5 million readings a day. It will cover the population of 5 million people every 2 days.

c) If the temperature exceed the threshold, the subject is given a card to visit a nearby booth for a more thorough check, free of charge, by a medically trained person. This is to determine if the subject needs to be admitted to a hospital. Treatment in the hospital is also free of charge.

d) The holder needs to show the QR coded card (taken during the previous 48 hours) to enter certain locations, such as malls and MRT stations. It can be read quickly with a QR code scanner. This will make everybody undergo the compulsory temperature scan every 2 days.

I believe that the cost of this operation is lower than the cost of quarantine and contact tracing. It is likely to be more effective in catching the people with symptoms and treating them early.

 

Tan Kin Lian

 

 

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25 Responses to “Are we adopting the correct strategy to deal with the spread of coronavirus?”

  • mike:

    @ Mr TKL

    At this moment you are still talking about cost-efficient this and that…
    rather than what is more important and effective to do in short term and then mid & long term.

    That is the point of billions and trillions of $$$ made in the treasury if it is not for the beneficial use for this tiny island?

    F-35s will be useless if it cannot fly.

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  • opposition dude:

    Too much trouble to take the temperature of people in MRT stations and other crowded places. I’m sure the majority of people would decline this.

    People who are coughing and sneezing should go see a doctor instead of assuming they do not have the virus.

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  • pap has a nandate:

    Any thing that cost PAP Government money, you can forget about it. The PAP Government do not want to expend any resources. The reason why the PAP Government does not want to proclaim airborne because it will affect business. The PAP Government is only interested in making money. They said no need to wear mask but they will wear a mask themselves. [email protected]#* u PAP.

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  • TKL believe PAP:

    What the MOH is saying is not what China is saying. China has lots more experience. In China, the doctors dealing with this virus are making the announcement.

    Who do you believe? First hand knowledge from medical doctors in the centre of dealing with this virus, or politicians who may or may not be getting the correct knowledge from the right sources?

    Just take one public case, for example.
    The UK man who attended a conference in Singapore. He got it here, but with no sign of the disease.

    He went to France for skiing, still no sign of the disease. About 10 persons kena from this seemingly healthy man.

    He went back to UK. Still no sign of sickness. He infected more people. Then he got sign of the disease.

    Just from this case, MOH information is totally not correct. If TRE techie can pofma them, he would. Right?

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  • TKL zip up:

    Believe them you die faster, because the minister talk without concrete evident. You should say, the minister speculate that the risk is “quite low”. But exactly how low, he won’t be able to tell you.

    The question is would you risk your family lives based on the minister’s speculation of low? I don’t need me to remind you of the various bloopers before, under his purviews.

    I think, if such similar speech was from the SDP or WP, they get POFMAed for risking citizens lives.

    TKL usual silly ideals like quarantine in hotel room etc…. if you are the boss of the hotel, would you allows it? Your hotel bankrupt in no time.

    And TKL can devise ideas based on speculation. I think that’s silly to the maximum and exposing workers to unnecessary risk.

    TKL should zip up.

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  • @TKL believe PAP

    There is a saying in China (maybe even among all Chinese) that some people you say wat also no use, must let them knock the head against the wall jialut jialut then they know is pain. POFMA them also no use one.

    If I remember correctly, one ivory tower resident last time said “no local transmission only imported infected” so no need simi precaution therefore also no need mask.

    Then suay suay come 1st case of local “community transmission” but that resident again play words say simi isolated case so “limited community transmission”. Again no need simi precaution therefore also no need mask.

    Then again suay suay more cases of “community transmission” confirmed liao until he bo bian must admit got “community transmission” liao but he still want face, die die still say “no need to wear mask”.

    Now some experts in Shanghai say got airborne transmission liao and this resident if got brain will sure err on the safe side (at least I would) and introduce advisory to wear mask when in crowded place, but surprisingly he still say “no need to wear mask”.

    Anyway, what is puzzling to me is that masks are dirt cheap (RMB 0.50 in China), why is this resident die die resisting to announce the wearing of mask? is it because Sillypore with masks everywhere will look no good and cause panic to visitors coming in, i.e. no tourist money?

    Maybe since the party is known to be money minded, but more so, I am inclined to believe the main reason is that the stocks of mask are grossly insufficient to cater to the needs of everyone in the little island in the long run.

    Like I estimated in another thread, yearly 1.3 billion masks are needed for everyone on the island if there is a huge and uncontrolled outbreak. This is about 100 million masks a month.

    Do you honestly believe that the island has 1.3b masks or maybe even 650 million (@50%) masks stashed somewhere on the island?

    My cow using her brains can also count the demand per year by the various hospitals and clinics also cannot exceed 100 million masks maybe. Without the virus infection, would the MOH stock 100 million masks since it can be readily ordered? My gut feel says if can find 50 million masks all should be sibei happy liao.

    Anyway I hope and pray to God not, but at the rate that this “no need to wear mask” fiasco is going, in no time the little island will be another city in Hubei province liao, with infection figures shooting through the roof – if it is eventually proven that the virus is even remotely airborne.

    What do you think?

    .

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  • no accountable:

    TKL like the MIW, talk no accountability and responsible one.

    CISCO serves quarantine orders also ganna already. Don’t know he how-lian mask or not mask himself. If masked, maybe mode of transmission even worse for no fever temperature quarantined suspect.

    TKL please talk wiser lah.

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  • tan kin lian is pea brained:

    we sincerely hope tan kin lian is not local born but is like pap cow boon hwan from penang who run road to Spore.

    because it is a shame for Sporeans to be associated with such low level, even below pap level.

    such pea brained. yet so stubborn to notice no substance. stupid as 70% sheep is, none is as pea brained as tan kin lian.

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  • Precaution Pls:

    To contain the virus, Best all who has cough and flu symptoms go to be tested for the virus to detect infected case and get early treatment.
    All frontline staff dealing with the public should wear masks to help reduce local transmission.
    If possible wear Mask in a crowded place.
    Did the Certis case serve quarantine order wear any protection mask?
    All those who serve quarantine order should wear protective masks for protection.

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  • REGIME CHANGE is the solution:

    TKL believe PAP:
    What the MOH is saying is not what China is saying. China has lots more experience. In China, the doctors dealing with this virus are making the announcement.

    Who do you believe? First hand knowledge from medical doctors in the centre of dealing with this virus, or politicians who may or may not be getting the correct knowledge from the right sources?

    Just take one public case, for example.
    The UK man who attended a conference in Singapore. He got it here, but with no sign of the disease.

    He went to France for skiing, still no sign of the disease. About 10 persons kena from this seemingly healthy man.

    He went back to UK. Still no sign of sickness. He infected more people. Then he got sign of the disease.

    Just from this case, MOH information is totally not correct. If TRE techie can pofma them, he would. Right?

    No symptoms do not wear mask. A new low in PAP stupidity.

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  • tan kin lian is pea brained:

    PAP leaders and Ministers keep saying you don’t need to wear mask if you are not unwell.

    At the same time propaganda machine works over time to brainwash Singaporeans that mask is ineffective in prevention of infection, etc etc…

    BUT their own MPs are most honest with their actions… Do they believe their own propaganda?

    above is cut and paste from Internet.

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  • Can you handle it?:

    REGIME CHANGE is the solution: No symptoms do not wear mask. A new low in PAP stupidity.

    How come big bro XJP play safe wearing mask while our $m monkeys so gungho, said no need.

    Incompetence and stupidity aat the highest level.

    Really we pay millions, but get idiotic monkeys

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  • Money sickness is the issue:

    Quote……I believe that the cost of this operation is lower than the cost of quarantine and contact tracing. It is likely to be more effective in catching the people with symptoms and treating them early…..unquote

    What costs? Lives are more important. Fight this virus from all angles. Spend what you have. Learn to live on $5 per head per day if need be if funds run out. Lives are important.

    Another big looming issue is climate change. Don’t be stingy, spend what you have. Don’t let climate issue knock you down because you did not do enough. You will not be alive to regret it.

    Another major mammoth problem yet to be seriously discussed and tackled. Mothers should stay home to manage her home and look her husband and children. That’s topmost priority for her. That’s her number one role as wife and mother. Create an economy where ONE WAGE is sufficient to run a home decently. The man brings home the bread.. By all means educate women to get a double PHD if they could do it. Then let them decide. But emphasis, encouragement must be the woman manage the home at home. Trouble begins when the woman leaves the home and go out to work. Hundreds of problems. That’s against the natural order. Think seriously about creating wholesome quality families and only the real mother homemaker could do it.

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  • Money sickness is the issue:

    Money is the root cause of the issues in this world.
    The greedy chasing for still more money is the disease.
    More workers, increase in population, pioneer tax exempt status in business locations taken advantage of; benefitted the few insatiable super rich at the top alongside their never ending plans to further expand their businesses forever.
    But realization is increasing all over the world about the situation, it is a learning process.
    Not being backward looking, but realistic moderation with less is the key to happiness.
    More money do not guarantee happiness.
    Happy family units are the answers.
    Don’t be an economic animal with nothing left for the soul.
    The world has gone through wars and epidemics and pandemics and political upheavals of all shades and colors.
    Human beings are resilient and has almost always coped and bounced back.
    The best is yet to come.
    The evolution towards a better world is still continuing and in progress.
    Have faith in the goodness of mankind.

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  • Harder Truths:

    It is retribution time for $inkies putting idiots in power.

    Every action has a payback – karma – so when you choose clowns to rule you expect to live in a circus where you pay for them doing nothing.

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  • subsequent plans or steps:

    //How come big bro XJP play safe wearing mask while our $m monkeys so gungho, said no need.//

    path dependency ? maybe our white idiots must project a consistent message (especially when the top white monkey idiots said to the effect that ‘do not need to wear if well”) ? orelse, someone will lose face or get their face torn apart ?

    so, whatever and whenever any subsequent plans or steps (however costly ?) taken by the white monkey idiots must be conditional to the mother-of-all-messages (do not need to wear if well) ?

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  • UniQ:

    TKL,

    Bottomline, education, education and more education, using all dialects, languages (foreign included), internets and standard medias.

    These education covers :

    - Daily updates : Allows people to conduct daily life as usual

    - Knowledge : Prevent panic, info mongering and provide security.

    - Processes : proper hygiene, avoid contact to public surfaces if
    possible. Proper precaution when unwell. Flow Charts.

    - Formulate Leaders Protocol

    That’s my take, as currently most under educated are running around like headless chickens effected by info mongers.

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  • Worse is yet to come:

    The only “correct strategy” ( acc to sg gov) that our useless inept sgov will adopt is, to introduce a new slew of price & tax increases once this crisis cools down.
    For a start our cpf withdrawal age will he pushed up to 90yo..u die your bizness.
    After that mrt/bus fare hikes..every year occurence lately.
    Then utilities water, gas, electricity — thats for sure.
    They will give us reasons like economy downturn due to the wuhan virus– its never their fault, always outside forces…gov needs our money!
    Im afraid of being infected this virus, but more afraid of the rise in prices etc.
    We are retired citizens with limited financial resources..
    Not like gov ppl with millions in the banks who keep telling us not to worry..dont use masks, theres enough food etc in stores etc.
    Are they aware that prices of kopi, tea n essentials have already gone up at our neighbourhood shops.
    Dont talk about masks n medical supplies eg sanitizers!
    Who did these shop keepers learn this profiteering from? From the best-our SGov!

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  • Bad Boy:

    Xi 玩失蹤咁耐 ……

    Today then make appearance to ” 作秀 “. Somemore with mask.

    还真是我将无我.

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  • REGIME CHANGE is the solution:

    Worse is yet to come:
    The only “correct strategy” ( acc to sg gov) that our useless inept sgov will adopt is, to introduce a new slew of price & tax increases once this crisis cools down.
    For a start our cpf withdrawal age will he pushed up to 90yo..u die your bizness.
    After that mrt/bus fare hikes..every year occurence lately.
    Then utilities water, gas, electricity — thats for sure.
    They will give us reasons like economy downturn due to the wuhan virus– its never their fault, always outside forces…gov needs our money!
    Im afraid of being infected this virus, but more afraid of the rise in prices etc.
    We are retired citizens with limited financial resources..
    Not like gov ppl with millions in the banks who keep telling us not to worry..dont use masks, theres enough food etc in stores etc.
    Are they aware that prices of kopi, tea n essentials have already gone up at our neighbourhood shops.
    Dont talk about masks n medical supplies eg sanitizers!
    Who did these shop keepers learn this profiteering from? From the best-our SGov!

    Virus tax coming after GE to set up “virus fund” to pay for masks, etc. nothing is free in Singapore. You must Pay And Pay.

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  • Defy logic:

    The biggest booboo in Sinkapore is to put a non-medical clown to handle a health crisis, what’s more it has now become a global one. And this inept clown is well known for making blunder after blunder.

    We have also a high power committee chaired by two equally incompetent clowns, again no medical qualifications nor training whatever.

    That’s why their advices lack medical rationale and devoid of layman’s logic!

    Ironicaaly, medical superstars are found in defence and foreign matters.

    What’s a mismatch! Classic example of putting round pegs in square holes. Hahaha….

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  • straight from the textbook:

    //Virus tax coming after GE to set up “virus fund” to pay for masks, etc. nothing is free in Singapore. You must Pay And Pay.//

    aiyoh ? and the white monkey idiots end up having a surplus in the exercise -and straight from the textbook, turning a crisis into a $$$ making opportunity ??? how can be liddat ???

    caveat lar : just a slippery slope spinning practice (unless it is really implemented by the white monkey idiots as in cost recovery) ????

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  • Gov never lose out:

    All we get for this stressful period and inconviences are 4 face mask, compliments if sgov.

    Give four cheapo masks,later take back a whole box full!

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  • nizhemoshou:

    On what basis the minister now say the infectious risk is low in the lst 14 days ? If that is true, hhe better explain if he still consider the risk low taking into account that we were given to understand that the many infected persons including spreaders who arrived from China to SG could enter SG bcos they werent sick and have no fever when they were checked for temperature at the airport.

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  • @Defy logic for $$$:

    What’s the difference between a genie and an academic?
    One can grant wishes, the other only wishes for grants.

    What’s the difference between an electrical engineer (GanKY) and the health minister (GanKY)?
    The Potential Difference in his salary is like a lightning thunderbolt from heaven compared to a mrt train battery.

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