What proportion of the population is already infected?

The government has decided to implement a lockdown in Singapore. All non-essential workplaces have to close for one month.

I guess that they have no choice. The new local infections has increased to an alarming number (about 50 cases a day). There is widespread panic among the people.

There is a belief that a lockdown will stop the spread of the corona virus. Many countries or cities are already adopting this approach. It seemed to be safer and wiser to follow them.

We should take advantage of the lockdown period to gather a vital piece of information – what proportion of the population is already infected with the virus?

We do not need to test the entire population. It should be possible to select sample of 5,000 people that is representative of the population by age group, health status and social economic status.

There is a general assumption that most people are not yet infected, and if containment measures are not taken now, the number of infected people could increase ten or hundred folds.

This assumption may be wrong. It may be possible that 25% or 50% of the population are already infected and have developed the immunity to the virus.

If indeed more than 25% of the population is already infected with the virus (and a large proportion is now immune to it), there is no need to impose a lockdown or to extend it.

This vital piece of information is necessary to do a reliable projection of the number of people that will be sick and need medical care.

During this time, we can also prepare for an increase in the hospital beds that are needed to treat the increasing number of patients.

In the UK, they have already converted a stadium that adds 500 beds. This facility could be expanded eventually to 5,000 beds. They are also recruiting and training the medical staffs to manage this facility, including recalling the retired health professionals. This will stop the health care system from being overwhelmed.

We should make similar preparations during the period of the lockdown.

I am still optimistic that the corona virus will not result in the large increase in deaths globally that some projections showed, i.e. figures of 10 million or more. I believe that the eventual number will be much less than 1 million. It will still be a large number.

I am more worried that the extreme measures that are being taken around the world will have a economic impact that will outweigh the actual harm caused by the corona virus. This economic damage could be reduced by making the right decision on dealing with the corona virus.

 

Tan Kin Lian

 

 

 

yyy
SPONSORED ADVERTISEMENT
Loading...

16 Responses to “What proportion of the population is already infected?”

  • wear Mask lah:

    Need to do more to reduce the spread.Hopefully the new measures announce will help.
    Better to implement wearing of Surgical masks ASAP like in the case of Taiwan.
    Seem it helps them to reduce the spread.
    We need to produce adequate masks here quickly…not good to depend on oversea supply in such critical items.
    Make it a national project…put more resources into this.
    GLCs should help.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • NotMyProblem:

    It was reported; “The WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who goes by Dr. Tedros (though he is not a medical doctor)…”, may be asked to resign.

    @Mr. Tan, maybe you can take over! With your stupid theory, you can also be in that position.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • opposition dude:

    “If indeed more than 25% of the population is already infected with the virus (and a large proportion is now immune to it), there is no need to impose a lockdown or to extend it.”

    Poor Kin Lian, still living in his dream world. Even if 25% have developed immunity there is still 75% not yet accounted for. In this current situation it’s better to be safe than be sorry and dead you know.

    “I am more worried that the extreme measures that are being taken around the world will have a economic impact that will outweigh the actual harm caused by the corona virus.”

    Doesn’t this sound like something PAP would say without saying it directly? Mr Tan, you are afraid your investments will sink under this pandemic and thus have no dividends ah?

    The economy comes second, nothing is more important than peoples’ lives. Once this pandemic is over we can then all sit down and count the cost. But not right now!

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • patriot of TUMASIK:

    you are not only Idiotic and sick of mind BUT Mad lah!!!…infected and IMMUNED so why worry…tell that to those who lost their love ones

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • 9th April:

    9th April …..

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Wear mask:

    wear Mask lah:
    Need to do more to reduce the spread.Hopefully the new measures announce will help.
    Better to implement wearing of Surgical masks ASAP like in the case of Taiwan.
    Seem it helps them to reduce the spread.
    We need to produce adequate masks here quickly…not good to depend on oversea supply in such critical items.
    Make it a national project…put more resources into this.
    GLCs should help.

    Already 3&1/2 months elapsed & SG/GIC factories have not been converted to produce surgical masks (like some said “improvise”)? Only sitting on their laurels waiting for foreign suppliers? Don’t you think we should be more proactive?

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • TanKinLian Lao Quee:

    if you can remember, Tan kin Lian predicted on 26 March 2020 that “In a few weeks time, they will reduce the extreme measures.”

    I want to remind him to be accountable to himself and do Tremeritus’s readers a favor not to continue with those rubbish of his and not Ti-cum, Ti-cum here , try his luck and waste our time.

    Sia Suey and Lao Quee really.

    http://www.tremeritus.net/2020/03/26/death-of-a-young-person-from-corona-virus/

    Credibility zero in this regard, so please stop making stupid suggestion. Many People here will not be reading your articles surely. And don’t be mistaken that I did. Stop wasting TRE’s readers time.

    BTW, how is the one card system of your “creation” hahahahaahah LOL…. coming up? Better take down the video showing your silly presentation.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • TruBlu:

    Not just personal hygiene but even more IMPORTANT FOR GAHMEN TO ENSURE PEOPLE HERE OBSERVE SOCIAL HYGIENE LIKE DISPOSE USED MASKS PROPERLY.
    MANY SGS KEEP THEIR OWN PREMISES CLEAN BUT HAVE NO QUALMS LITTERING IN PUBLIC OR CAUSE NUISANCE TO THEIR NEIGHBOURS.

    NEA MUST STEP UP DUE DILIGENCE TO ACHIEVE SG CLEAN,NO USE MARKETING ON TV.
    DISTRIBUTE FLYERS N SEND LETTERS TO INFORM RESIDENTS BOTH IN HDB N PRIVATE ESTATES TI REMIND THEM NOT TO LITTER.

    PUBLIC CLEANING COMPANIES MUST ENSURE PUBLIC CLEANLINESS.THEY HAVE BEEN PAID TO DO IT.

    GRASSROOT MEMBERS MUST ENSURE THEY SET GOOD EXAMPLES INSTEAD OF BEING ARROGANT.

    TOGETHER,SG CAN BE CLEAN NATION AGAIN.
    IF YOUR NEIGHBOUR IS SICK,YOU ARE ALSO AT RISK.
    SO STOP BEING SELFISH.

    FIGHTING GRRMS IS NOT PERSONAL,IT IS A SOCIAL RESPONDIBITY

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Harder Truths:

    The pappies are only worried about their GDP and spending unnecessary money on locals that they need for their own pockets. The quality of care will be to make sure you expire quickly so that they can burn you and make way for the next victim. Why spend millions on ballsless that can be replaced?

    Instead of a doctor in charge of the CoV emergency telling what we need to do we have an idiot and his useless communist gang making medical decisions that will see more people die and maimed for life. CoV is not a one-off – you cannot escape the long term effects and it will possibly kill you before your time when you get older.

    This is the karma of voting evildoers as leeders. People must suffer for their actions. Life will not let you escape.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Educating Singaporeans:

    Let me educate you, Singaporeans.
    Share my post to all social media, Whatsapp, Line, Viber, printed materials etc.

    I speak the truth, nothing but the Hard Truth just like LKY did.

    Hard Truth #1 Stupid DPP #1
    用電鍋乾蒸口罩8分鐘即可重複使用
    Steam your mask for 8 minutes and you can reuse it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlfVzUvRGts
    Hard Truth #2 Stupid DPP #2
    指揮中心示範電鍋蒸口罩!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JblFcTAbcJo

    DPP stand for Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan (呆湾)
    Their President is Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) who does not allow anyone to question her qualification as it could be fake.
    Hard Truth #3 Stupid DPP #3
    https://www.quora.com/What-do-you-think-of-the-fake-diploma-controversy-of-Taiwans-President-Tsai-Ing-wen

    Our founding father LKY is right. If you don’t pay top money for top talents, you get stupid unqualified people at the top position.

    PAP.GUARANTEED.WIN.GE2020
    Vote PAP, Vote for 9% GST to give PAP millionaires more 9 months bonus.
    PAP Huat, Huat, Huat arh

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • N.Jungne:

    All under cover and Under Control

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • orange to red:

    the gov will continue to wayang. with the many shades of (Droscon) Orange until one of the ministars or their family members get hit with the virus.
    then like lightning theyll turn the Orange to RED!
    now we die not their business cuz we not their brother.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • If the gahment is really serious in tackling the spread (instead of holding back to hold a GE), at this stage in time, it has to assume that the entire population is already infected ans then take measures based on that assumption. If you look at the current rate of infections, contact tracing is no longer effective and probably a waste of time as Sinkapore is a small place and everyone has either met someone or talked or in contact with someone during the period when distancing measures were not implemented.

    Otherwise whatever measures including current ones would at most slow the infection but will not contain it.

    China, especially Wuhan has shown the world how. Unless the residents in the ivory tower are dead sure that they can defeat the pandemic quickly (not after a year said the LEEder) using their own measures, otherwise it is better to learn from China and stop acting like they know all and put the safety and lives of sillyzens at risk.

    My 1.5 cents.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Asd:

    I think it is irresponsible to inform the nation via tv no need to wear mask if not sick when any sensible person knows it reduces the spread by leaps and bound but then unfortunately the tv got disclaimer that use the tv info at your own risk so you can only blame yourself for listening to untrained person talking as if they are doctors and have through knowledge of this infectious virus

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Alvin Lam:

    No one knows how much SG reserves has. Until now ,the govt have not release our CPF during this COVID-19 crisis. they only handed out some paltry some amount to us. Mind you this amount is not immediately.Instead FT gets priority first. SG govt better wake up.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • why u so liddat:

    yesterday went to collect the one face mask..but im not ungrateful. like to thank the gahment ..
    imagine at my rc..the volunteer or grassroot rep in charge scanned people’s IC front n back then can collect the face mask.
    as tho giving us $1mil?
    whatever the gahment gives out they must account for each cent..
    but what they take from us and been grabbing from us, no one knows or will ever.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...

Leave a Reply

 characters available


Scroll Down For More Interesting Stuff


Member Services
Self-SupportMembers LoginSelf-Support
VirusVirusVirus
Sponsored Advertisement
Search On TR Emeritus
Sponsored Advertisement
Most Recent Comments
  • nature: If there are no water puddles, long grass wouldn’t breed mosquitoes.
  • oxygen: BUSINESS IS ABOUT RELATIONSHIPS OUTSIDE AND ITS CULTIVATION, the office is constantly reminding me of (past)...
  • TRE Techie: @Python 5 PRC businessmen are a bunch of very proud and arrogant people. One thing I learnt from this...
  • Xia suay ministers: These millionaire monkeys are doing great entertaining us with their idiotic acts and speeches....
  • Vote for change: Your comparison of right to drive vehicle vs right to vote is bad as you are comparing apple vs...
  • Is Bala still around?: How on earth did this goondu slipped in become a millister? Old man can’t breathe and is...
  • CCS your time is up: strike 3 you’re out! already 3x opened his gap and put his foot in it.. one was calling...
  • Bernard: This whole COVID 19 fiasco management is beyond words. A city of 6+ million on CB (assessed Lockdown) over...
Announcement
Advertisements
Advertisements
Visitors Statistic
Latest Statistic

UA-67043412-1