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Social and Economic Inequality and Covid-19

Talk is cheap.

Let’s see the PAP Government walk the talk on their sudden impetus to “strengthen the social support system”. They need to put their money where their mouth is.

Quite apart from the rhetoric of wanting to “strengthen the social support system”, Covid -19 is simply not the reason that “widened the gulf between the haves and have nots” in Singapore. Covid-19 is certainly not the root cause of the chronic social and economic inequality here.

Inequality is infact an indictment of the PAP Government’s mismanagement of the country and its failed social and economic policies.

While we may well need a reset of the social compact, it’s not for the Covid-19 reason as advertised per se. Let’s not blame Covid-19 for a problem that the PAP is responsible for.

The social compact or contract is the political authority given to the PAP Government that embodies the will of the people to undertake responsibility for the people’s welfare and well being.

This responsibility of the PAP Government as defined by the social contract is immutable and does not need a reset.

Yes we deserve better. Yes we do deserve a new deal.

However what requires a reset is inter-alia, the nature and extent to which the Government must “strengthen the social support system”.

Infact we must address inequality in Singapore urgently.

Inequality is a symptom not the disease. The disease is systemic in nature and the disease Covid-19 per se is not the root cause of the problem though it certainly has made things worse.

What we have here is a system riddled with a debilitating cancer that is spreading within our body politic. The system is rotten to the core. It’s not fit for purpose and does not serve the ordinary citizen as it should.

The system needs a reset. It is our social and economic policies that require a reset and not just the social compact.

I have previously already several times called for a total systemic overhaul in setting new priorities to achieve a better quality of life for all here in Singapore. We need to reduce the cost of living, stresses and strains and anxieties that plague ordinary households in Singapore.

We need to change our way of life.

The Government’s key strategy to resolve the chronic social and income inequality in Singapore is job creation economic growth but 60 years of PAP economic strategies have had the opposite effect and have entrenched inequality here instead.

The PAP Government want to sell to you the “Singapore Dream” when in fact for most it is a “Singapore Nightmare” with ordinary citizens suffering to make ends meet; with escalating cost of living, depreciating HDB leases, retirement inadequacy and bleak job prospects not just because of the Covid-19 crisis but primarily due to ever increasing competition for fewer and fewer jobs against more and more people that are being brought to our shores under dubious PAP Government immigration and population policies.

Inequality makes the hard sell of the PAP Government’s “Singapore Dream” a joke.

The solution lies in getting rid of the PAP government as soon as possible since they have failed, neglected and/or refused to address the worsening social and income inequality that has taken root here despite having every opportunity to do so. We need incisive surgical intervention to change the system ; the social compact and the social and economic policies that have caused so much hardship here for ordinary citizens. Not just surgery but emergency surgery is required to get rid of this blight on our society to start the healing process of making Singapore better.

The PAP Government has been in consecutive power, being the first and only fully elected government of Singapore, for almost 62 years since 30 May 1959.

And chronic inequality is the outcome of their stewardship.

Is this the Singapore we want?

A reset is indeed long overdue.

 

Khush Chopra

 

 

 

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77 Responses to “Social and Economic Inequality and Covid-19”

  • Le chiens:

    Hahaha! Strengthen Social support system?

    By looting sgs’ national reserves of $100 Billion and grant a meagre $600 to needy n jobless sgs n poor retirees n dishing tens of thousand dollars to high-salaried people including HUNDREDS OF THOUSAND OF NON-sg-FTs.

    And,to make things worse,increase premium of 30 plus pct on medishit premiums.

    Strengthen social support?
    My toes are laughing.

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  • People Are Poor:

    In very simple terms so that everyone can understand.

    P.A.P. means People Are Poor.

    PAP is making Singaporeans poor.

    Are people poor? Just look at the numbers now. 400,000 households are so poor that they qualify for $50 vouchers. That’s 1/3 of Singaporeans.

    The $50 voucher for a household to last 6 month is just plainly insulting, ridiculous and WTF. The fact that the politicians can proudly and unashamedly call this good social support is beyond understanding.

    How does PAP make Singaporeans poor?

    1. Suck our money everywhere. Adds up to million dollars per person over a few decades. Suck costs. Suck HDB. Suck COE. Suck GST. Suck fines. Suck CPF returns.

    2. Suppress wages. $1000 a month is great income. Can buy apt. Can support family and children.

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  • Too Much Heaven:

    Is the Style Of Governance to suck as much as possible and
    and give back as little as possible?

    Give GST vouchers in bits and pieces?
    Increase water charges by whopping 30%?
    Increase Medishield premiums by whopping 35%?
    Many other forms of whopping increases?

    Ownself check Ownself?

    Enriching The Rich? Raping The Poor?

    Rubbish Bin Centre costing $880 000? Who are the
    Con sultans and Con tractors?

    50 Zinc-Rooofed 3mx3m Designated Smoking Points costing $10 000 each? Who are the contractors?

    Garden by The Bay’s maintenance costs at least $50M per year? Jewel’s? What about the upcoming Founders’ Monument?

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  • Tremendous:

    I know people are going to bomb me but the chance to get rid of these chiefs is low. They live in the heavens with heavenly salaries, they will find all means to keep that status quo, ethically or otherwise.

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  • xoxo:

    No worries,we will make sure no SINGAPOREAN is left behind…
    But,you must WORK TILL YOU DROP DEAD even if you are old granny COLLECTING CARDBOARD LITTER to earn a few dollars.

    Collecting money is our business.

    You die,your business.

    Why vote for us time and time again.
    We told you we will keep $crewing you.
    Cant stand it,you are all so daft.
    Our late mentor was correct.

    We know you are afraid we are no more the govt becos you simply love getting screwed.

    Hahaha! We are laughing all the way to the bank.

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  • TEMUSIK PATRIOT:

    Let’s RESET and Move Forward with a Helicopter View to Enhance …

    Parroting is the Game “cheat & deceive” is the NAME

    and the Name that started it all???… Lie Con You the man who Conned YOU!!!

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  • Billy ma:

    As the writer pointed out that ‘PAP is rotten to its core’, that also implies it’s smell to high heavens.

    And when it’s so used to the smell, not only it gets used to the rotten smell, it also certainly loved it now.

    The fact that PAP still believe they’re nit just well but reckon they’re better than ever.
    So don’t expect anything good to happen.
    Especially so if lhl is still around.

    Reset? Kidding rite?

    If anything, it must & can only happens by the vote of the citizens.

    No other force would be able.

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  • to extrapolate the 'ill' effec:

    //want to sell to you the “Singapore Dream” when in fact for most it is a “Singapore Nightmare” with ordinary citizens suffering to make ends meet;//

    aiyoh. so many white monkey elites from the white monkey gang right, they cannot see meh ?

    open-leg policy going to 6.9m or 10m (of course, white idiots say no 6.9m lar ??) ???, do not need any phd to extrapolate the ‘ill’ effects (physical, psychological, environmental, etc, etc) especially more so in a country with high cost structure (housing ?? now also food costs, just go to supermarkets after the so-called circuit-breaker ??) and a very limited land space ????

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  • oxygen:

    COVID-19 PANDEMIC scarred maybe 20% of the global economy, FAILED PAPpypolitic/PAPpynomics blind ruthless application of its population recycling economic policies trapped LEE-jiapore with no escape route.

    POPULATION-DENSITY and foot traffic dependent businesses are dead. Any recovery will be long and arduous. Without new economic pillars of imported cheap skills, there will be no recovery for LEE-jiapore.

    With bigger imports of foreigners, local poly graduates will be strongly encouraged to hawking.

    WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE REST STUCK WITH UNDERWATER MORTGAGES and unable to put even food on the table of retrenched PMETs?

    61% still lives in the fantasy world of “artificial beauties” built on the stupid PAPynomics of “asset enhancement politics” muddy foundations.

    They don’t want to face the hard truths/realities on – HOW TO CREATE REAL WEALTH SIMPLY BY SPENDING MONEY building concrete jungle to look at and self-admire – instead of manufacturing some product/services to sell to the rest of the world?

    PAPpypolitics/PAPpynomics are like cockroaches – they are well fed, mostly in the dark instead of daylight – cunning and fast disappearing when getting close to detection and apprehension from contrary voices.

    61% “stability-seekers” who don’t want to change in a turbulent world deserves what comes their way. Now they can rot in that undisturbed sh*t-hole.

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  • oxygen:

    FOR THE POOR, HARDER TIMES ARE AHEAD, most likely. Real interest and inflation pick-up seems most likely – post pandemic – if for no other reasons than

    - supply chain disruption aftershocks
    - production fall-off as shipping/supply chain got disruptions create artificial shortage relative to demand volume and shifts

    Here are other reasons.

    Why are real interest rates and inflation on the way up?

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-why-are-real-interest-rates-and-inflation-on-the-way-up/

    I suspect that only some employed can demand higher wages but most will get the flick out the farking door (too many on the unemployment Q waiting for the chance re-entry into a job on lower wages).

    BUT RISING REAL INTEREST MEANS HIGHER MORTGAGE AFFORDABILITY PRESSURE. And unless economy sustains of recovery (unlikely since it is temporarily floated up by govt stimulus spending), even those with jobs and mortgage will be be under pressure of risks chance of sudden retrenchment as corporate profits shrinks.

    HARDER TIMES ARE AHEAD THIS YEAR for most is what I think waiting.

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  • oxygen:

    OH, I almost forgot this “wet blanket” of property-mad crazy bumkins – hard headed but MOSTLY STUPID.

    CapitaLand and CDL Both Announced Profit Warnings

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/capitaland-cdl-both-announced-profit-233042058.html

    Yahoo.com :Fair value losses
    CapitaLand announced last week that its financial performance for the fiscal year 2020 will be “materially and adversely impacted”.Profit from business operations is expected to decline in the range of 20% to 30% year on year.
    Additionally, the group also expects to incur fair value losses relating to a portion of its portfolio of properties, as well as impairments on residential projects and equity investments.

    The total impact of these losses and impairments is around S$2.35 billion to S$2.55 billion.

    Property developer towkays are pessimistic, yet property-mad bumkins are hardcore irretrievably optimistic.

    ONE SIDE HAS GOT TO BE WRONG.

    WHO??

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  • PAP mandate strong:

    No doubt there are mistakes and areas to be improved. But China also faces inequalities. Needless to say USA , even Europe countries face similar issues.

    At least here u criticise PAP or use cuss words , u are still here. Imagine China u f Xi.

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  • Agree totally:

    Talk is cheap, especially from this Lawrence Wong.
    The rich are buying the much aspired private properties for their children.
    Look at his policy and impact when he was the MND Minister?
    Now as education minister, Temasek Poly is promoting 12 month Hawker course for its students! To level? level what?
    Even university graduates in their 40s cannot afford a condo, what about those in their 20s and 30s when they are in their 40s?
    They will be priced out not just in jobs but also condo by FTs.
    Sad very sad extremely sad.

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  • Dear Mr Wong:

    I would like to suggest Singapore Polytechnics here conduct cleaning management courses instead of hawkerpreunership?
    Maybe you should be delegated to be NEA senior minister, from your past performance as housing minister.
    OK ok, as you are LHL’s favourite spy, maybe you double as 2nd minister for MSE.
    Now the table cleaners are trained to clean table quite clean using the same old soiled table rags.
    Your greatest contribution could be train cleaners not to swipe food debris onto the chairs and floor.
    Customers will use less tissue paper to wipe their chairs and tables and get the paper blown all over the place.
    You can then save some cost by reducing the number of cleaners sweeping the floor.
    Clean environment whether it is hawker centre tables, toilets begets considerate users, the converse is true too, it is a self fulfilling cycle.
    How many rectangle trays can be placed on a six-seater table?
    If customers take out their bowl or plates from the trays and place the latter on the floor or another table, the hawker centre capacity is reduced temporarily or badly during peak hours.
    What are the chances these people will walk a bit and place their empty plates, bowls, saucers in the return tray areas?
    Please solve the basic problems first, you are paid to do that, not to sugar coat what you did wrongly or did not do with your pouting mouth.

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  • Inequality?:

    Who were the people who bought private properties when you were the national development minister?
    By age group, income group, nationalities (born here Singaporean, naturalised Singaporeans, PRs, foreigners), parentage (rich parents, etc).
    Why did the property price jump in a recession year in 2020?
    What is the supply during your tenure?
    Khaw kicked the can down the road to you and you to Desmond Lee.
    What is the point of getting a tertiary education now? Might as well be a hawker at 17 and hope to own a big house like many old hawkers now.
    No wonder Khaw said you cannot eat a degree – that is one of the few things he said that I agree. Already confirmed true.

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  • Who cares:

    oxygen:
    OH, I almost forgot this “wet blanket” of property-mad crazy bumkins – hard headed but MOSTLY STUPID.

    CapitaLand and CDL Both Announced Profit Warnings

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/capitaland-cdl-both-announced-profit-233042058.html

    Property developer towkays are pessimistic, yet property-mad bumkins are hardcore irretrievably optimistic.

    ONE SIDE HAS GOT TO BE WRONG.

    WHO??

    As long as I buy the price goes up, I am happy. I do not have to pay rental to rent one, I can rent out my 2nd property to earn passive income. I can also buy for my children using their names.
    The price is now is double the peak pre GFC, quadrupled pre AFC peak.
    Those who wait for price crash would unlikely buy because they hope the price would drift lower.
    Dream … your dream private house is realised through buying one not pure dream of getting it cheap or cheaper than last year’s.

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  • Aiyoyo:

    oxygen:
    FOR THE POOR, HARDER TIMES ARE AHEAD, most likely. Real interest and inflation pick-up seems most likely – post pandemic – if for no other reasons than

    - supply chain disruption aftershocks
    - production fall-off as shipping/supply chain got disruptions create artificial shortage relative to demand volume and shifts

    Here are other reasons.

    Why are real interest rates and inflation on the way up?

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-why-are-real-interest-rates-and-inflation-on-the-way-up/

    I suspect that only some employed can demand higher wages but most will get the flick out the farking door (too many on the unemployment Q waiting for the chance re-entry into a job on lower wages).

    BUT RISING REAL INTEREST MEANS HIGHER MORTGAGE AFFORDABILITY PRESSURE. And unless economy sustains of recovery (unlikely since it is temporarily floated up by govt stimulus spending), even those with jobs and mortgage will be be under pressure of risks chance of sudden retrenchment as corporate profits shrinks.

    HARDER TIMES ARE AHEAD THIS YEAR for most is what I think waiting.

    I think you have been saying this umpteen times here, by extrapolating like some PAP ministers did, I think you had been saying that since 2007.
    You cannot talk down the price, price is determined by demand and supply among other factors. The demand is huge, pent up demand has been building for years, supply is decreasing.
    That is why prices are rising despite the dubious efforts by the government.

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  • The owners are ...:

    … laughing to the bank together with the banks and property developers.
    Prices of private property and HDB flats rose in 2020 despite the pandemic and recession.
    CDL share price is still above 2020 low despite its concerning investment in China
    Capitaland price is still way above 2020 low despite expected big profit guidance.
    Why?
    They are making very decent profit in Singapore property market.
    Capitaland has a very wealthy god mother who will never let it fail, the same god mother who saves singapore airline.
    Her husband is doling out money to these companies which may buy back own shares, giving out dividends, these will support prices just like the government supporting property prices.
    If property prices were to drop, who will buy? It will lead to people holding back buying, leading to less consumption, less economic activities/ PAP Ministers did not say that publicly, but that is surely in their mind.

    oxygen:
    OH, I almost forgot this “wet blanket” of property-mad crazy bumkins – hard headed but MOSTLY STUPID.

    CapitaLand and CDL Both Announced Profit Warnings

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/capitaland-cdl-both-announced-profit-233042058.html

    Property developer towkays are pessimistic, yet property-mad bumkins are hardcore irretrievably optimistic.

    ONE SIDE HAS GOT TO BE WRONG.

    WHO??

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  • Singaporeans like that one:

    to extrapolate the 'ill' effec:
    //want to sell to you the “Singapore Dream” when in fact for most it is a “Singapore Nightmare” with ordinary citizens suffering to make ends meet;//

    aiyoh. so many white monkey elites from the white monkey gang right, they cannot see meh ?

    open-leg policy going to 6.9m or 10m (of course, white idiots say no 6.9m lar ??) ???, do not need any phd to extrapolate the ‘ill’ effects (physical, psychological, environmental, etc, etc) especially more so in a country with high cost structure (housing ?? now also food costs, just go to supermarkets after the so-called circuit-breaker ??) and a very limited land space ????

    The top 10% Singaporeans, FTs and wealthy families are doing well.
    That is why we see private properties being snapped up. Over 600 units of Normanton Park Condo were sold over the weekend.

    Majority of Singaporeans are struggling to sustain their jobs and mortgage payments. That includes naturalised Singaporeans because PAP practises displacement and pyramid policies. It is a Singaporean nightmare.

    Singapore dream is meant for FTs, say rom India, who make 10 times what they made back home, and can afford to buy a condo unit, even some foreigners coming here in the hope of making a pot of gold, went back home, 12 people had to share a 2 bedroom apartment with a single toilet, no space to even unpack their luggage, the landlord is making a pile instead, obviously PAP government is closing both eyes.

    Singaporeans may be educated but they have the mindset of ancient societies, like those who believe a country must have a monarch no matter how e*** or tyrannical he may be.

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  • Hi Oxygen:

    I am not sure whether you are (still) a Singaporean or living in Singapore.

    PAP understands the psychic of Singaporeans very well.

    People are willing to pinch on food and luxury to save to buy a private property, for prestige, social status reasons.

    Many Indian employment pass holders find rental in Singapore very expensive, so many save hard to make a down payment to buy a private property here, many Chinese parents buy property for their children working here, like Indonesians for their children studying here.

    The harder PAP makes one to own a private property, the more desired it becomes. This is to make those aspiring a condo to work harder until they pass on. That is why many young professionals in their thirties and forties plough their life savings into shoebox sized apartment.

    The government sell land for only about 5000 condo units a year on their confirmed sites, maybe less. The property developers game the system, and build smaller units and sell at higher psf prices.

    It works. Prices continue to go up. Government is playing the good guy by monitoring the market and introducing cooling measures to keep prices in line with economic growth as they keep saying when prices shoot up, or at least issue warning, not unlike you, but no effect. The difference is PAP has the power but not you.

    The property developers will game the system on QC, etc, by selling or buying among themselves (the rich can easily set up a company), just need to pay stamp duties which is peanut (more than Mrs GCT’s peanut amount) to them when prices rise together with their land bank in the next few years. It has been happening since 1990s.

    In 2020, the government played the good guy again, requiring the banks to provide mortgage relief. HDB will surely provide relief even if some families paid a over $1 million flat last year or earlier. What else will PAP do? Lose more votes?

    Your premonition of price crashing may not take place for a long time, when the time comes, the bottomed out price may still be higher than today’s prices. Same for the crash in 2008-2009.

    oxygen:
    COVID-19 PANDEMIC scarred maybe 20% of the global economy, FAILED PAPpypolitic/PAPpynomics blind ruthless application of its population recycling economic policies trapped LEE-jiapore with no escape route.

    WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE REST STUCK WITH UNDERWATER MORTGAGES and unable to put even food on the table of retrenched PMETs?

    61% still lives in the fantasy world of “artificial beauties” built on the stupid PAPynomics of “asset enhancement politics” muddy foundations.

    They don’t want to face the hard truths/realities on – HOW TO CREATE REAL WEALTH SIMPLY BY SPENDING MONEY building concrete jungle to look at and self-admire – instead of manufacturing some product/services to sell to the rest of the world?

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  • oxygen:

    @ Who cares

    YOUR NIGHTS MUST BE LONG and your dreams must be sweet.

    Who cares: As long as I buy the price goes up, I am happy. I do not have to pay rental to rent one, I can rent out my 2nd property to earn passive income. I can also buy for my children using their names.
    The price is now is double the peak pre GFC, quadrupled pre AFC peak.
    Those who wait for price crash would unlikely buy because they hope the price would drift lower.
    Dream … your dream private house is realised through buying one not pure dream of getting it cheap or cheaper than last year’s.

    I checked the private residential property index chart, it DIDN’T SUBSTANTIATE your happy dreams of price doubling the pre-GFC peak nor quadrupled pre AFC peak either.

    Take a look.

    https://data.gov.sg/dataset/private-residential-property-price-index-by-type-of-property

    The data comes from the Singapore govt source, not any other unreliable property business entity engaged in “hawking” of their services opportunities.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Aiyoyo,

    SORRY THAT I STEPPED on YOUR property-infected TOE, but I certainly DON’T “extrapolate” like some PAP ministers. My mental algorithm is different, hence my oft divergence of thoughts/conclusions from PAPpypolitics/PAPpynomics.

    Aiyoyo: I think you have been saying this umpteen times here, by extrapolating like some PAP ministers did,

    As for “talking down the price”, I don’t think this will ever or can ever happens. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE – the property market has a mind of its own -despite divergent views of observers like you and me.

    Aiyoyo: You cannot talk down the price

    You are wrong to presume I hold such an intent because I am NOT in this market to buy.

    As for the demand/supply balance of your claims, I have no clue.

    Aiyoyo: The demand is huge, pent up demand has been building for years, supply is decreasing

    I google one property service forecast on its Sgp property market outlook for 2021 – PropertyGuru, it says….”2021 is likely to remain a buyer’s market” and captioned that with this cautionary optimism that..”Of course, what lies ahead is highly dependent on the global COVID-19 situation”

    SO IT IS STILL A BUYER’S MARKET of some certainty affirmation from the analytical research of PropertyGuru at least, the seller is at the mercy of buyer’s demand – against a background of aftershocks of the pandemic.

    I believe PropertyGuru published forecast have UNDERSTATE OR NEGLECT fuller recognition of the SHIFTING MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES in that brevity of forecast.

    You are. of course, entitled to your contrary opinions BUT I SAY THIS SINCERELY, THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION in this discourse.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Aiyoyo

    Sorry I missed out the weblink support of PropertyGuru forecast just in case you want to verify the authenticity of my reference to their forecast.

    https://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-guides/property-market-outlook-pmo-2021-38009#conclusion

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  • oxygen:

    @ The owners are

    WHILST POSITIVISM in the face of engulfing bad times is good for a fightback to a comeback, one still needs to be realistic of sober recalibration.

    The owners are ...: The owners are laughing to the bank together with the banks and property developers.

    Capitaland/CDL are not entirely gloomy of their outlook, asset write-down in financial reporting have to meet with statutory law requirement of true and fair disclosure of its true financial position, income statement and cash flows.

    If you look at my weblink supplied (below)

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/capitaland-cdl-both-announced-profit-233042058.html

    and reads its content, you must notice two keynote points on Capitaland at least.

    - The total impact of these losses and impairments is around S$2.35 billion to S$2.55 billion.

    - Due to the occurrence of these financial items, CapitaLand is expected to report a loss for its fiscal year 2020.

    Capitaland said its its financial performance for the fiscal year 2020 will be “materially and adversely impacted”.

    The writedowns in asset values are huge, necessary and painful. All property businesses have big borrowings, the balance sheet impairment of this scale is not trivial concerns.

    I believe CDL and Capitaland are the only one adversely affected by the pandemic, other big property stocks will have to do significant write-down of asset values as well – even maybe capital raising to shore up their balance sheets.

    But it nevertheless reflect the gloomy property outlook in Singapore – IT WILL BE ACCORDING TO PROPERTYGURU research still a ‘buyer’s market” for residential property in 2021.

    I too is pessimistic but looking at property market from a MACRO-ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE.

    It is beyond the pandemic risks but rising tide of real interest rate (now negative adjusted for inflation) because of rising raw materials (witness iron-ore, base metals, even rare earth prices have never been so good for miners for many years despite covid-19 smack down of global economy.)

    The US fed is looking at holding the long-term 30-treasury bond yield will not curve up.

    If it does, nightmare for borrowers deeply in debt. If it doesn’t, it means the recovery path is not durable to be able of support of long-term higher interest rate, inflation and growth prospects.

    It is now between the devil and the deep blue sea.

    THANK YOU FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTING THOUGHTS SHARING.

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  • oxygen:

    @ The owners are…

    Sorry, typo error there, the caption below

    oxygen: I believe CDL and Capitaland are the only one adversely affected by the pandemic

    should be correctly read as

    oxygen: I believe CDL and Capitaland are NOT the only one adversely affected by the pandemic

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  • oxygen:

    @ Hi Oxygen

    The political play of property market is not ignored BUT ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY is another.

    Hi Oxygen: PAP understands the psychic of Singaporeans very well.

    MAS cooling measures speaks of the dangers of letting the property market runs amok, detached from sustainable reality. Take a look at the SGP private property index, it tells a compelling story – UNDENIABLE.

    https://data.gov.sg/dataset/private-residential-property-price-index-by-type-of-property

    Of course, all hard asset values OVER THE DECADES have to go up. So you are NOT entirely wrong of this observation (even though not explained of the economic logic underpinning)

    Hi Oxygen: Your premonition of price crashing may not take place for a long time, when the time comes, the bottomed out price may still be higher than today’s prices. Same for the crash in 2008-2009

    WHY IS THIS SO?

    Very simple.

    If the property prices fall X percent of its original buy price across the board, BANKING INSOLVENCY risks WILL ERUPT because of exposure to property loans. We saw some banks gone under, other merged to survive in the GFC due to sub-prime mortgage lending.

    But on the converse, if the property index – as a surrogate measure – did go up 15% from its peak GFC values over 10 years now, it is only gaining less than 1.5% annually compounded over 10 years.

    This has not factor in your interest holding costs of bank borrowing of say 1.5% per annum.

    THIS IS LOUSY RETURN.

    Remember, property is BOND PROXY INVESTING – if you bought US treasury 10-yr bond paying an average of 2.5% annually over 10 years horizon, YOU HAVE DONE A LOT BETTER.

    Let me set the record straight for the sake of our mutual enjoyment of this debating thread FOR WHICH I SINCERELY THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTION just like any other commenters.

    Hi Oxygen: Your premonition of price crashing may not take place for a long time

    I HAVE NO WISH FOR PROPERTY MARKET in SGP to collapse nor any premonition that it will happen.

    Please allow me the humility of pleading here again as I oft remind all – I am NOT DIVINE or clairvoyant OF WHAT “CRASH” ahead. Some readers either mistaken of quick read or completely mis-interpret my contributed thoughts on property investing.

    A FORECAST HAS GOT A SPECIFIC OUTCOME TO REACH BY A SPECIFIC DATE – it is DEFINITIVE AND EXHAUSTIVE of determined outcome. At no time did I mentioned, EVER, the word “crash” let alone of that imagined outcome by what date!!

    My weblink like this are factual.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/four-bedroom-unit-st-regis-220000035.html

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  • oxygen:

    @ Hi Oxygen

    I JUST DID A QUICK check on marketwatch. com, and saw all three major US stock market indices tumbled, US 10 year treasury bond yield fell more than 3 basis point, even gold taking a beating as well in company of sympathy and financial market players fled into the safety of US dollar again.

    Can’t be said that I can be optimistic of the pandemic and macro-economic outlook.

    Hence my pessimistic perspective on the outlook for the SGP residential property sector.

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  • Very good:

    It shows you have faith in PAP sanctioned official statistics.

    I heard before when the numbers turn out not to be in line with the PAP’s earlier proclamation, the numbers will be submitted to the PS/Ministers for review. That speaks volume.

    In Singapore, new condo prices are always at a premium over resale prices.

    When property developers increase the prices, the resale price will catch up eventually, but at a discount.

    On paper or in theory, the QC should force the property developers to sell at a discount from their earlier launch of the same project, instead they manage to sell all within the QC period, at even higher prices.

    The market is controlled by the big boys just like the supply (and demand too to a certain extent via taxes, duties, FT inflow and incentives to attract foreign investors) is controlled by the government.

    Numbers do not lie but there goes the saying stats stats lies.

    oxygen:
    @ Who cares

    YOUR NIGHTS MUST BE LONG and your dreams must be sweet.

    I checked the private residential property index chart, it DIDN’T SUBSTANTIATE your happy dreams of price doubling the pre-GFC peak nor quadrupled pre AFC peak either.

    Take a look.

    https://data.gov.sg/dataset/private-residential-property-price-index-by-type-of-property

    The data comes from the Singapore govt source, not any other unreliable property business entity engaged in “hawking” of their services opportunities.

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  • I am confused:

    oxygen:
    @ Hi Oxygen

    The political play of property market is not ignored BUT ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY is another.

    MAS cooling measures speaks of the dangers of letting the property market runs amok, detached from sustainable reality. Take a look at the SGP private property index, it tells a compelling story – UNDENIABLE.

    https://data.gov.sg/dataset/private-residential-property-price-index-by-type-of-property

    Of course, all hard asset values OVER THE DECADES have to go up. So you are NOT entirely wrong of this observation (even though not explained of the economic logic underpinning)

    WHY IS THIS SO?

    Very simple.

    If the property prices fall X percent of its original buy price across the board, BANKING INSOLVENCY risks WILL ERUPT because of exposure to property loans. We saw some banks gone under, other merged to survive in the GFC due to sub-prime mortgage lending.

    But on the converse, if the property index – as a surrogate measure – did go up 15% from its peak GFC values over 10 years now, it is only gaining less than 1.5% annually compounded over 10 years.

    This has not factor in your interest holding costs of bank borrowing of say 1.5% per annum.

    THIS IS LOUSY RETURN.

    Remember, property is BOND PROXY INVESTING – if you bought US treasury 10-yr bond paying an average of 2.5% annually over 10 years horizon, YOU HAVE DONE A LOT BETTER.

    Let me set the record straight for the sake of our mutual enjoyment of this debating thread FOR WHICH I SINCERELY THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTION just like any other commenters.

    I HAVE NO WISH FOR PROPERTY MARKET in SGP to collapse nor any premonition that it will happen.

    Please allow me the humility of pleading here again as I oft remind all – I am NOT DIVINE or clairvoyant OF WHAT “CRASH” ahead. Some readers either mistaken of quick read or completely mis-interpret my contributed thoughts on property investing.

    A FORECAST HAS GOT A SPECIFIC OUTCOME TO REACH BY A SPECIFIC DATE – it is DEFINITIVE AND EXHAUSTIVE of determined outcome. At no time did I mentioned, EVER, the word “crash” let alone of that imagined outcome by what date!!

    My weblink like this are factual.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/four-bedroom-unit-st-regis-220000035.html

    Do you believe in PAP policy or not?
    Do you trust PAP statistics or not?
    Do you think PAP/MAS is doing the right things or not?
    I do not believe entirely what I see or hear as far as PAP is concerned.

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  • To trust or not:

    Articles and statistics are written and compiled by people with vested interest.

    We can get very different “facts” from different parties.

    Victors write history and … facts too.

    oxygen:
    @ Hi Oxygen

    My weblink like this are factual.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/four-bedroom-unit-st-regis-220000035.html

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  • I tell you a secret:

    Property agents are afraid the government will introduce more cooling measures.

    Likewise, for property developers.

    So they tone down publicly and online.

    Talk to their agents on the ground, and you hear different stories.

    If it is a buyers market, why are new condo launched at higher prices one after another, not from their nearby condo, but from the same project later launch?

    One main reason buyers go for resale units is that they are cheaper than new launches and buyers can bargain. When a nearby new launch is priced 25% higher, will the seller sell at such a big discount, the answer is no, he will increase the selling price instead, unless he is desperate to sell, which is not the case now.

    What will PAP do when the market drops 5%?

    Stop land sale.

    It has already been reducing land sale the past few years under Lawrence Wong.

    oxygen:
    @ Aiyoyo,

    SORRY THAT I STEPPED on YOUR property-infected TOE, but I certainly DON’T “extrapolate” like some PAP ministers. My mental algorithm is different, hence my oft divergence of thoughts/conclusions from PAPpypolitics/PAPpynomics.

    As for “talking down the price”, I don’t think this will ever or can ever happens. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE – the property market has a mind of its own -despite divergent views of observers like you and me.

    You are wrong to presume I hold such an intent because I am NOT in this market to buy.

    As for the demand/supply balance of your claims, I have no clue.

    I google one property service forecast on its Sgp property market outlook for 2021 – PropertyGuru, it says….”2021 is likely to remain a buyer’s market” and captioned that with this cautionary optimism that..”Of course, what lies ahead is highly dependent on the global COVID-19 situation”

    SO IT IS STILL A BUYER’S MARKET of some certainty affirmation from the analytical research of PropertyGuru at least, the seller is at the mercy of buyer’s demand – against a background of aftershocks of the pandemic.

    I believe PropertyGuru published forecast have UNDERSTATE OR NEGLECT fuller recognition of the SHIFTING MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES in that brevity of forecast.

    You are. of course, entitled to your contrary opinions BUT I SAY THIS SINCERELY, THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION in this discourse.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Very good:

    FAR OUT, your extrapolation below is far too wide and reach of a net. Metaphorically, too many refinements got an easy escape, mostly unnecessarily.

    Very good: It shows you have faith in PAP sanctioned official statistics.

    Checking for validity of statistical claims and its construction is still the way to go.

    Very good: In Singapore, new condo prices are always at a premium over resale prices.

    When property developers increase the prices, the resale price will catch up eventually, but at a discount.

    As a generality, this would logically stays. Imagine a new development is lower than existing nearby, IT WOULD BE VERY HARD TO PERSUADE potential buyers because construction quality and design would be prime suspects – forget the decaying leasehold values with aging implicit.

    BUT HIGHER PRICING DOES NOT MEAN VALUE buy for new development nearby, it could appreciate or DEPRECIATE in value/pricing after purchase.Price is what you paid for purchase, value is it future potential realizable disposal value resultant.

    It is NOT DIVINE LAW written in Heaven that your sale price will exceed your purchase costs. Read all these weblinks below – THEY ARE NOT MY FABRICATIONS.

    https://www.srx.com.sg/singapore-property-news/7312/loss-making-property-transactions-on-the-rise-in-singapore

    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/158m-loss-in-st-regis-penthouse-sale-small-change-for-japanese-billionaire

    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3106071/billionaire-james-dyson-sells-singapores-priciest

    Dyson lost US$8 million in under ONE YEAR.

    And here is a composite features of both winners and losers.

    Another factual weblink I located.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/four-bedroom-unit-st-regis-220000035.html

    YOU CAN TAKE IT AS SWEET OR AS SOUR AS YOU LIKE – but reality confronts the face of truth happenings.

    THIS IS THE RISKS IN PROPERTY INVESTING – never a sure win bet that property maniacs would want the town to believe.

    Very good: The market is controlled by the big boys

    This is FICTION EXTRAORDINARY. Capitaland’s losses and impairments is around S$2.35 billion to S$2.55 billion is real. It put an announcement through the SGX which mandate BY LAW asset values valuation must reflect balance sheet reality.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/capitaland-cdl-both-announced-profit-233042058.html

    Directors in Capitaland are liable for price sensitive announcements like this. They yield to market forces and reality.

    HOPE THESE CLARIFY AND THANK YOU FOR SHARING.

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  • oxygen:

    @ I am confused:

    NO NEED TO BE CONFUSED.

    I am confused: Do you believe in PAP policy or not?
    Do you trust PAP statistics or not?

    I have correspondent to @ Very good above on trusts of statistics/policy, indeed from any source.

    oxygen: @ Very good:

    FAR OUT, your extrapolation below is far too wide and reach of a net. Metaphorically, too many refinements got an easy escape, mostly unnecessarily……..Checking for validity of statistical claims and its construction is still the way to go

    On this question of MAS/PAP property cooling measures imposition, I think they are doing it right.

    I am confused: Do you think PAP/MAS is doing the right things or not?

    Why?

    Very simple – simple macro-economic extension logic. Property is accommodation costs, travels to all other sectors of the economy. It is UNPRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT/SPECULATION otherwise and must reflect economic fundamentals.

    As to

    I am confused: I do not believe entirely what I see or hear as far as PAP is concerned.

    I see we are on the same page on this one.

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  • oxygen:

    @ To trust or not:

    MATE, NO NEED TO BE OVERWHELMINGLY CYNICAL in blanket sweep.

    To trust or not: Articles and statistics are written and compiled by people with vested interest.

    We can get very different “facts” from different parties.

    Victors write history and … facts too.

    The weblink I supplied below is NEUTRAL in factual historical accounting of gainers/losers in transacted – definitely NOT one-sided leaning on either a strongly optimistic or pessimistic bias.

    Any material lies told there can easily be exposed because multiple parties are involved in those transactions completed.

    No writer would want to be exposed of any wilful deceptions so blatantly against factual historical reality.

    oxygen: My weblink like this are factual.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/four-bedroom-unit-st-regis-220000035.html

    That said, I remain vigilant of distrusting ALL SELF-REPORTING from business/institutional/government sources.

    If a report from ANY prominent property-based business speaks of a “buyer’s market in waiting of forward recovery, pending resolution of big uncertainties needing resolution”, my antennae tells me that it is ALARM BELLS ringing loudly of sudden shock collapse risks is looming just ahead.

    Why?

    You can only talks of a “RECOVERY” only AFTER A BIG FALL PRECEDING which haven’t showed up as yet.

    By the same logic, I DISCOUNT all POSITIVE self-reporting of a business or govt by a huge spoonful of salt – always on the look-out of what that self-reporting haven’t or omitted to tell me rather than what spin of lies they “told” me in that report.

    No self-respecting business/govt degrades itself by revealing its weaknesses and failings.

    THE BIGGER THE ISSUE AND MORE IMPACTFUL is its forward implications, THE BIGGER WILL BE THE LIE TOLD to the target audience or truths hidden from the peasants.

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  • oxygen:

    @ I tell you a secret:

    YOUR POST COMMENTS IS STATING THE OBVIOUS & A MIXTURE of SPECULATIVE CONJECTURES, some not found on facts.

    I tell you a secret: Property agents are afraid the government will introduce more cooling measures.

    Likewise, for property developers.

    So they tone down publicly and online.

    Property business interest obviously afraid of additional cooling measures – jobs and business survival at stake. They are already been through hard times in recent years – none of the earlier LAYERED-ON harsher cooling measures imposed by the MAS have been eased.

    So what you said at opening is obvious facts.

    And this comment is illogical.

    I tell you a secret: If it is a buyers market, why are new condo launched at higher prices one after another, not from their nearby condo, but from the same project later launch?

    With fears of even more punishing cooling measure looming, which buyer is stupid enough to cough up more money to buy leftover unsold units presented to them by a desperate developer? The choices units with views would be been “sold” to early bird buyers. Developers face huge financial penalties for unsold unit a few years after TOP granted. Who is under pressure to unload and who is desperate to offer higher amount for “garbage” units that others refused to pay at opening launch?

    AND OF COURSE, NEVER NEVER NEVER TRUST THE DEVELOPER’S CLAIMS THAT XXX units were sold at initial launch.

    It is all a BIG FARKING LIE of false booking sale accomplished as URA found out.

    Read this weblink on how the DECEPTION works which is cleverly used to bait unsuspecting buyers to buy some units at launch – preying on their FOMO (fear of missing out) instincts like…the moment you walk out of here without booking a unit, you will regret for the rest of your farking life”. Ha Ha Ha, there are gullible fools around.

    https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/Guidelines/Circulars/COH20-03

    URA :we have observed that there have been instances where the OTP is re-issued multiple times to the same purchaser(s) for the same unit, which lengthens the option period significantly.

    That means the same unit in the same development project was “sold” to the same buyer many times over. And who knows he/she might walk away with little or no penalty,

    This is bullsh*t.

    I tell you a secret: What will PAP do when the market drops 5%?

    Stop land sale.

    Why MAS want more property cooling measure then?

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  • Factual:

    oxygen:
    Dyson lost US$8 million in under ONE YEAR.

    One swallow does not a summer make.

    On a side note, a few years ago, Dyson announced it was going to invest millions if not billions in Sg. The gahment reported foreign investment committed …

    Last year, Dyson announced it is quitting the plan. The gahment reported FDI increased to ….

    All these are facts, the gahment did not lie.

    Dyson received grants from Sg gahment.

    The grants may include not just plant equipment but also tables and chairs.

    Not sure if they include housing, furniture for staff transferred from India, UK, etc.

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  • Cynical thinking:

    oxygen:

    Any material lies told there can easily be exposed because multiple parties are involved in those transactions completed.

    No writer would want to be exposed of any wilful deceptions so blatantly against factual historical reality.

    That said, I remain vigilant of distrusting ALL SELF-REPORTING from business/institutional/government sources.

    Many articles are built upon one another, of course sometimes with outliers. I am sure you know about stock analyst reports, which I think are buy biased generally. Otherwise, brokers will drop or not cover the company concerned.

    Many reports are built on one single source – the official source, government statistics – assumed to be gospel truth.

    People involved may be silo’d on a need to know basis. Besides, there maybe discounts, rebates in kinds, business relationship, goodwill, etc.

    Lies, exposure of same, occur everywhere since time immemorial, not just in a dictatorship but also the most advanced democratic nation. Same for half truths, half facts, if there are such things. What is not reported or what I did not read does not mean it is not there. We choose the articles we like to read and quote what we believe is factual, but is it factual amongst all the factual?

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  • oxygen:

    @ Cynical thinking

    I LIKE YOUR COMMENT shared with all in this TRE thread, particularly this one

    Cynical thinking: Many articles are built upon one another, of course sometimes with outliers

    I stumbled on one such beauty in Singapore property market read – it is an OUTLIER and sharp informing critical mind.

    Allow me to share the weblink with all.

    HDB resale value distorted by newer HDB flats, high-floor units in resale market: 99.co

    https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/12/15/hdb-resale-value-distorted-by-newer-hdb-flats-high-floor-units-in-resale-market/

    AND SOME OF THE REAL BEAUT OBSERVATIONS therein from property portal 99.co

    99.co :Property portal 99.co reported on Saturday (12 December) that while Ang Mo Kio and Clementi both secured million-dollar HDB transactions this year, the towns provided “the most worrying picture” of the HDB resale price situation.

    Earlier in November, a five-room unit at Teck Ghee Vista in Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 was sold at a whopping price of S$1,008,888, making the second unit in Ang Mo Kio to have crossed the S$1 million mark

    …………For example, the old flats near Ang Mo Kio MRT –- which was built in the late 1970s with 55 to 56 years of a remaining lease –- have declined by 19.6 per cent. The price went down from S$551,174 to S$443,327.
    99.co’s report highlighted that the overall HDB Resale Price Index declined by about 10 per cent during this time, indicating that any decline in HDB resale prices may be “cushioned by the robust prices for newer resale flats”.

    The sale of HDB flat over $1 million is HYPED UP in property business circles to blanket conceal the overall DEPRESSING STATE elsewhere.

    I speculate that some of the $million HDB transacted is MONEY LAUNDERING scheme from China – it is paper transaction to enable PRCs to “legally remit “remit dirty funds out of China where for years now where their govt restrict outflow of funds for overseas property purchase. The seller of those HDB flats got a lot lower to shut up but better than others in the same block.

    SO I DON’T BELIEVE THE HDB transactions over $1 million in AMK where there is no water view when better located units at Pinnacle-upon-Duxton can’t match.

    My PRC friend who bought A$1 million house in Sydney remit money out from her HK banking account – no mortgage purchase – she knows she can’t remit the same money out of her Chinese banks in Guangzhou.

    I am sure that the buyers of over $1 million HDB won’t be Singaporeans who can buy a new BTO nearer to convenient locations for a lot less and a 99-year lease.

    THERE IS NO STUPID SINKIES except those property maniac living out their fantasy dreams.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Factual

    THESE OBSERVATIONS/COMMENTS from you must be factual rubbish of twisted facts in my opinion.

    Factual: Last year, Dyson announced it is quitting the plan…..The grants may include not just plant equipment but also tables and chairs

    How could Dysons “received” disbursements for all “tables and chairs” for which they presumably paid for BEFORE COMMENCEMENT OF ACTUAL OPERATIONS but quitting the plan before implementation?

    You mean EDB signed to Dysons a blank cheque/s of a grant/a series of grants for money yet unspent even for tables and chairs.

    Who signed that blank cheque/s? Did the Auditor-General allows such shoddy payment and accounting practices in SGP govt?

    MY CONCLUSION is this – it is your fart of fiction of factual rubbish.

    Your use of the word “may” points to your pure speculation, not declaration of claimed fact.

    And this denial of reality?

    Factual: One swallow does not a summer make.

    One swallow?

    How about the Japanese property developer billionaire loss in that luxury penthouse documented above?

    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/158m-loss-in-st-regis-penthouse-sale-small-change-for-japanese-billionaire

    AND THOSE LOSSES OF OTHERS identified here?

    https://www.srx.com.sg/singapore-property-news/7312/loss-making-property-transactions-on-the-rise-in-singapore

    Or were all these “pigeons” instead to you?

    COME ON, MATE, YOU WANT SERIOUS DEBATE, GET REAL.

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  • Open to another perspective:

    oxygen:
    @ I tell you a secret:

    YOUR POST COMMENTS IS STATING THE OBVIOUS & A MIXTURE of SPECULATIVE CONJECTURES, some not found on facts.

    Property business interest obviously afraid of additional cooling measures – jobs and business survival at stake. They are already been through hard times in recent years – none of the earlier LAYERED-ON harsher cooling measures imposed by the MAS have been eased.

    So what you said at opening is obvious facts.

    And this comment is illogical.

    With fears of even more punishing cooling measure looming, which buyer is stupid enough to cough up more money to buy leftover unsold units presented to them by a desperate developer? The choices units with views would be been “sold” to early bird buyers. Developers face huge financial penalties for unsold unit a few years after TOP granted. Who is under pressure to unload and who is desperate to offer higher amount for “garbage” units that others refused to pay at opening launch?

    AND OF COURSE, NEVER NEVER NEVER TRUST THE DEVELOPER’S CLAIMS THAT XXX units were sold at initial launch.

    It is all a BIG FARKING LIE of false booking sale accomplished as URA found out.

    Read this weblink on how the DECEPTION works which is cleverly used to bait unsuspecting buyers to buy some units at launch – preying on their FOMO (fear of missing out) instincts like…the moment you walk out of here without booking a unit, you will regret for the rest of your farking life”. Ha Ha Ha, there are gullible fools around.

    https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/Guidelines/Circulars/COH20-03

    That means the same unit in the same development project was “sold” to the same buyer many times over. And who knows he/she might walk away with little or no penalty,

    This is bullsh*t.

    Why MAS want more property cooling measure then?

    The real facts speak for themselves.

    Did the prices drop?

    No.

    So it is your buyers market that caused prices to go up?

    Or the cooling measures that caused prices to go up?

    Many developers are desperate to sell before TOP/QC. How many are stuck and have to pay penalty? So many like you infer .. . and prices still go up?

    Why prices rise? Because of private developers’ and agents’ lies about booking and extensions? If people fall for the “lies”, why did they not buy instead of extending the booking time and again?

    Why people FOMO? I look at it very differently from you – people fear more cooling measures (loan curb, supply cut, reduced launches, etc), prices going up yet again in the aftermath. People FOMO’d in the past are right in their decision, they live in condo (instead of renting) and prices go up.

    Whatever the developers say or do like the past booking extensions, your “factual” sources say about buyers market, cooling measures, the fact is prices go up!

    Why?

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  • Dear Oxygen:

    I can understand.

    It is very difficult to change one’s view about something after having the view for many years.

    Property market like stock market moves in cycle.

    I presume you are familiar with the stock market.

    Take OCBC stock for example. In the 1970s, it went up to $50 and then it crashed down to reality because some powerful man, LKY said not sustainable, hearsay. Yes, many people lost their shirts then.

    OCBC went up and down over the past few decades.

    The Lee family (and Tan family) holding the OCBC before and after the 1970s crash is still enjoying a good return on their holding. Yes, many could not recover after that crash and later stock crashes, but overall more investors make positive return on OCBC because its share price rises over the past few decades.

    (I am not a shareholder of OCBC, not related to the Lee or Tan families or any for that matter, not a broker, MAS licensed or otherwise)

    Unless there is a black swan, like a war here, like in some countries, property prices will generally go up with economic growth. Today, governments and their central banks are pivoted towards economic activities, and Singapore should benefit if it plays its cards right not just externally but also internally.

    If we live long enough, we may be able see the premonition or views we predict come true. In the meantime, we have to live with reality under a roof, in Singapore, the police or social worker will haul you away even if you sleep at East Coast Park, with a shelter or not.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Open to another perspective:

    WHOEVER YOU ARE, I SINCERELY SAYS, thank you very much for your participation in this interesting thread.

    I shall endeavor to respond as best as I could given my partial unknown of the Singapore property environment. You will note (and I must ask that you agree) my opening volley/ambit is MACRO-ECONOMICS perspective in this thread, at least.

    I look at the outlook forward -ALWAYS FROM A MACRO-ECONOMIC perspective – it has its limitations I am aware of. So be cognizant this – I didn’t set out to forecast a “crash” or advance a premonition that this is immediately inevitable.

    Your perspective is micro – I attempted to reach others also looking at mirco-data I can hunted around on the net.

    Having said these, I shall attempt to address the points you have raised.

    Open to another perspective: Did the prices drop?

    No.

    Me thinks the article write-up from 99.co explains a large part of price distorted perception.

    Secondly, like I said price have to go up nominally, even if minute for this reason already explained above.

    oxygen: WHY IS THIS SO?

    Very simple.

    If the property prices fall X percent of its original buy price across the board, BANKING INSOLVENCY risks WILL ERUPT because of exposure to property loans. We saw some banks gone under, other merged to survive in the GFC due to sub-prime mortgage lending.

    If the price rise by 2% per annum, & inflation/borrowing costs is 2%, the property investor makes no money in real worth. I pointed this out already.

    oxygen: Remember, property is BOND PROXY INVESTING – if you bought US treasury 10-yr bond paying an average of 2.5% annually over 10 years horizon, YOU HAVE DONE A LOT BETTER

    If it NOT NECESSARY for property market to crash to lose money. And nowhere in my writing spoke of imminent ‘CRASH” of property mkt in Sgp. That “UNHOLY” WORD is not in my vocabulary but some TRE readers.

    I merely pointed out the overzealous passion for property gamble is misplaced illogic – it has big downside as it has of big upside.

    It has never been and will never be a SURE one-way bet of up the heavenly trajectory UNLESS YOU DENY THE CHART READ OF PROPERTY CYCLE here.

    oxygen: Take a look.

    https://data.gov.sg/dataset/private-residential-property-price-index-by-type-of-property

    A picture like this speaks a thousand word.

    I shall leave my emotion in the dustbin, shall you too, mate?

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  • oxygen:

    @ Open to another perspective

    continued.

    This one didn’t comprehends me or its realism escape my notice – without being sarcastic at all.

    Open to another perspective: Or the cooling measures that caused prices to go up?

    you contradicted yourself a line preceding

    Open to another perspective: So it is your buyers market that caused prices to go up?

    Obviously, it is the paying buyer who caused the price (if it) were to go up, right? If MAS cooling measures caused prices to go up, what do you think MAS have been doing since 2013 and even now in this gloomy global economic outlook is looking at that option again?

    Your emotive rant makes to sense to me, mate.

    On FOMO, you could be right of some eager beaver buyers.

    Open to another perspective: Why people FOMO? I look at it very differently from you – people fear more cooling measures (loan curb, supply cut, reduced launches, etc), prices going up yet again in the aftermath

    After the purchase, what about affordability when interest rate spike up? Surely, I don’t think your lending banker dare to commit to a 30-yr loan for a fixed rate WHEN NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATE PERSIST in major financial market from Japan, EU and USA?

    And you think real negative interest rate will last forever? That is to say inflation is zero and no prospect for business to earn money and hire or give continued employment to those who have borrowed to their eyeball on cheap interest rate?

    And I submit to you that those who exit their condo lifestyle at a loss BECAUSE THEY LOST AFFORDABILITY HOLD after they got retrenched or their business fails.

    Covid pandemic gives both little chances of escape.

    So to answer your last question why despite what some property consulting services said of “buyer’s market”, price still goes up.

    IT IS I SUSPECT TO THE MINDSET OF PROPERTY DIEHARD/MANIAC who believes in the fiction that ‘buy property, sure make money one!”

    Me thinks this is self-delusion, the evidences available I supplied in this thread proved the contrary.

    Some will make, others will lose their shirt, pants and something else too.

    IT IS IMPOSSIBLE OF A SURE ONE WAY SURE-WIN BET – and THIS IS THE THEME AND CORE OF MY THESIS in this thread.

    Just imagine this simple reality, if property price rise forever, HOW ARE YOUR KIDS GOING TO BUY THEIR HOMES after you gone to Tern Sua (China) of involuntary permanent never-to-return retirement???

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  • oxygen:

    @ Open to another perspective

    Oops sorry, typo error there, the line below

    oxygen: Your emotive rant makes to sense to me, mate.

    should be read as

    oxygen: Your emotive rant makes NO sense to me, mate.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Dear Oxygen

    SPARKLING BRILLIANCE of YOUR opening gambit. Thanks for adding to the debating floor.

    Dear Oxygen: I can understand.

    It is very difficult to change one’s view about something after having the view for many years.

    Property market like stock market moves in cycle.

    EXACTLY where in the cycle is a debatable point. You think the recovery path has begun in view of two observations

    Dear Oxygen: property prices will generally go up with economic growth. Today, governments and their central banks are pivoted towards economic activities, and Singapore should benefit

    Me think the pandemic is the black swan and central banks – for all its largesse – is accommodating the turbulence by injecting massive, seemingly unlimited, liquidity to shore up falling asset values.

    Central bank “money printing” is debt financing. In low interest rate environment, it matters less, but low interest rate environment of negative real interest rate is TOXIC medicine when interest rate move up and must move up, maybe sooner than later.

    The US 10 yr treasury bond yield in the last 2 months have moved up a lot in percentage term – THIS IS FACTUAL, CAN’T BE DENIED – AND that is ominous sign of looming inflationary spiral.

    I worry for those deep in leverage mortgage.

    CHEAP MONEY IS ALSO CREATING HAVOC IN GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET INSTABILITY – the Gameout saga that played out in NY speaks volume of how little the US fed can control toxic money flow in “robinhood rookie” trading and disrupting asset pricing.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-vaccines-and-stimulus-not-monetary-policy-behind-higher-asset-prices-220735067.html

    When asked to comment on Gameout saga, JEROME POWELL OPENLY STATED IN CONGRESSIONAL HEARING, HE REFUSED TO COMMENT.

    To me, that reveals the Fed lost control of financial market and surrendered in submission to the tyranny of cheap money turned rogue threatening the stability of the global financial market system’s functioning.

    If the global equities market spins out of control and all other assets categories tumbled of sudden collapse just like Gameout, YOU SERIOUSLY THINK THE SINGAPORE PROPERTY MARKET WILL SUSTAIN, let alone climb higher?

    This could be your unseen next “Black Swan”

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  • I have a friend ...:

    oxygen:
    @ Cynical thinking

    I LIKE YOUR COMMENT shared with all in this TRE thread, particularly this one

    I stumbled on one such beauty in Singapore property market read – it is an OUTLIER and sharp informing critical mind.

    Allow me to share the weblink with all.

    HDB resale value distorted by newer HDB flats, high-floor units in resale market: 99.co

    https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/12/15/hdb-resale-value-distorted-by-newer-hdb-flats-high-floor-units-in-resale-market/

    AND SOME OF THE REAL BEAUT OBSERVATIONS therein from property portal 99.co

    The sale of HDB flat over $1 million is HYPED UP in property business circles to blanket conceal the overall DEPRESSING STATE elsewhere.

    I speculate that some of the $million HDB transacted is MONEY LAUNDERING scheme from China – it is paper transaction to enable PRCs to “legally remit “remit dirty funds out of China where for years now where their govt restrict outflow of funds for overseas property purchase. The seller of those HDB flats got a lot lower to shut up but better than others in the same block.

    SO I DON’T BELIEVE THE HDB transactions over $1 million in AMK where there is no water view when better located units at Pinnacle-upon-Duxton can’t match.

    My PRC friend who bought A$1 million house in Sydney remit money out from her HK banking account – no mortgage purchase – she knows she can’t remit the same money out of her Chinese banks in Guangzhou.

    I am sure that the buyers of over $1 million HDB won’t be Singaporeans who can buy a new BTO nearer to convenient locations for a lot less and a 99-year lease.

    THERE IS NO STUPID SINKIES except those property maniac living out their fantasy dreams.

    … a true blue Singaporean who paid over a million dollar for a resale flat in Clementi after selling his EC.

    I have no doubt about what you said.

    I had an ex colleague, a junior staff in her 20s from PRC whose parent bought a condo unit in Singapore for her to stay. I think her father was a civil servant then.

    Anyway, even junior civil servants in China can buy million dollar properties here, remember the clerk from Poyang municipal owning properties in Singapore and later he was charged in China for embezzlement.

    Singapore does not care where the money comes from, as long as you have money and invest here … Indonesians, Chinese, Indians, the list goes on.

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  • My dearest,:

    oxygen:
    @ Factual

    THESE OBSERVATIONS/COMMENTS from you must be factual rubbish of twisted facts in my opinion.

    How could Dysons “received” disbursements for all “tables and chairs” for which they presumably paid for BEFORE COMMENCEMENT OF ACTUAL OPERATIONS but quitting the plan before implementation?

    You mean EDB signed to Dysons a blank cheque/s of a grant/a series of grants for money yet unspent even for tables and chairs.

    Who signed that blank cheque/s? Did the Auditor-General allows such shoddy payment and accounting practices in SGP govt?

    MY CONCLUSION is this – it is your fart of fiction of factual rubbish.

    Your use of the word “may” points to your pure speculation, not declaration of claimed fact.

    And this denial of reality?

    One swallow?

    How about the Japanese property developer billionaire loss in that luxury penthouse documented above?

    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/158m-loss-in-st-regis-penthouse-sale-small-change-for-japanese-billionaire

    AND THOSE LOSSES OF OTHERS identified here?

    https://www.srx.com.sg/singapore-property-news/7312/loss-making-property-transactions-on-the-rise-in-singapore

    Or were all these “pigeons” instead to you?

    COME ON, MATE, YOU WANT SERIOUS DEBATE, GET REAL.

    It is a figure of speech.

    Every morning and evening, I hear birds chirping. It seems to be coming from millions of birds.

    On closer observation, I binocular’d and saw 2 big crows among hundreds of mynahs and koel.

    Like stock market you are familiar with, when the high end property market moved in the mid 2000s, the mass market moved. When the high end market dropped, the mass market continued to move up.

    Why? The demand is there, huge influx of foreigners.

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  • Don't be a frog in the well:

    oxygen:
    @ Factual

    THESE OBSERVATIONS/COMMENTS from you must be factual rubbish of twisted facts in my opinion.

    How could Dysons “received” disbursements for all “tables and chairs” for which they presumably paid for BEFORE COMMENCEMENT OF ACTUAL OPERATIONS but quitting the plan before implementation?

    You mean EDB signed to Dysons a blank cheque/s of a grant/a series of grants for money yet unspent even for tables and chairs.

    Who signed that blank cheque/s? Did the Auditor-General allows such shoddy payment and accounting practices in SGP govt?

    MY CONCLUSION is this – it is your fart of fiction of factual rubbish.

    Your use of the word “may” points to your pure speculation, not declaration of claimed fact.

    And this denial of reality?

    One swallow?

    ……

    https://www.srx.com.sg/singapore-property-news/7312/loss-making-property-transactions-on-the-rise-in-singapore

    Or were all these “pigeons” instead to you?

    COME ON, MATE, YOU WANT SERIOUS DEBATE, GET REAL.

    There is a Statutory Board that measures KPI of its staff but how much grants they give out.

    The grants are given out for equipment and furniture purchased. And these equipment and furniture are still in plastic wrappers in the plant and office months later.

    On Dyson, the government said to the effect it gave out grants to Dyson what it spent according to the grants terms and conditions. I do not know the terms, do you?

    Does it sound logical to you that the government give relocation grants to Dyson to transfer its staff from overseas? I am 61% sure it did.

    Does it seem logical that the government give out covid 19 funds to SBS, ComfortDelgo, Keppel Corp, SembCorp, SembCorp Marine?

    SBS (74% owned by ComfortDelgro) has some government bus contracts, it is getting paid for the contract service, yet it is getting the Covid 19 job relief, etc.

    ComfortDelgro is in black thanks to government relief package and SBS.

    Keppel also took the relief, I believe, plus cost of quarantining its foreign workers, and yet it retrenched its workers, and better still, going to give out dividend for FY 2020 despite $500 million loss. Logical? I am not sure it bought back its own shares. If it did, I won’t ask you the same question, logical? Instead it is – ridiculous?

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  • Haha:

    oxygen:

    Just imagine this simple reality, if property price rise forever, HOW ARE YOUR KIDS GOING TO BUY THEIR HOMES after you gone to Tern Sua (China) of involuntary permanent never-to-return retirement???

    Don’t worry, I would have already bought for them way before they become adult.

    If my great grand children cannot afford one or inherit one here from their parents or grandparents, I have already left a will or rather an advice … migrate maybe to Sydney … if Sydney is too expensive, then maybe Canberra, … if still expensive … Fremantle …if still expensive … Wave Rock, nice place where you can see millions of stars in a clear night …

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  • Think harder:

    Quote

    Obviously, it is the paying buyer who caused the price (if it) were to go up, right? If MAS cooling measures caused prices to go up, what do you think MAS have been doing since 2013 and even now in this gloomy global economic outlook is looking at that option again?

    Unquote

    So is each of the MAS cooling measures over the years effective?

    I remember a K drama where the family members do not want a comatose patient to recover.

    So in collusion with the family doctor, they give him a drug. Each time when he shows sign of waking up, they give him a higher dosage.

    Outsiders say they are very filial.

    In fact, the patient does not need the drug, he need samgyetang to wake up, not drug.

    Got it?

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  • Hi Oxygen:

    Quote
    Obviously, it is the paying buyer who caused the price (if it) were to go up, right? If MAS cooling measures caused prices to go up, what do you think MAS have been doing since 2013 and even now in this gloomy global economic outlook is looking at that option again?
    Unquote

    You quoted a writeup that today market is a buyer market.

    I take it that in a buyer market, the buyers have higher bargaining power. Am I correct?

    If the buyers have better bargaining power, why are they paying higher prices?

    I understand from the government/MAS/Ministers and you that MAS cooling measures are not supposed to cause price to go up.

    Prices go up.

    Am I missing something?

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  • PAP can answer better:

    oxygen:
    @ Open to another perspective

    Just imagine this simple reality, if property price rise forever, HOW ARE YOUR KIDS GOING TO BUY THEIR HOMES after you gone to Tern Sua (China) of involuntary permanent never-to-return retirement???

    Please ask Lee Hsien Loong how his (adult) kids are going to buy their homes.

    He won’t say I have Nassim Jade, Scotts 28, Mandarin Garden, this landed property and many more.

    Maybe ask GCT when he recovers from his surgery, the question how are your grandchildren going to buy their homes.

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  • oxygen:

    @ My dearest,

    Your contribution to this thread debate – if I am permitted to be disrespectful of feedback – is LOUSY!

    I explain why.

    My dearest,: Like stock market you are familiar with, when the high end property market moved in the mid 2000s, the mass market moved. When the high end market dropped, the mass market continued to move up.

    You meant the when property mkt is an upgrading ladder – when top end rises, the mass market tagged on and when top end punctured, the lower mass market with same or higher affordability pressure UPGRADE AGAIN?

    It is a one-way ladder – only up- that is sure win bet??

    Where is the market or property cycle another blogger here pointed out brilliantly?

    Dear Oxygen: Property market like stock market moves in cycle.

    And this one is a giveaway dead rat.

    My dearest,: Why? The demand is there, huge influx of foreigners.

    Read this article from Straits Times – definitely not my wishful or self-delusion fiction creation I promise faithfully.

    Foreign buying of Singapore private homes drops to 17-year low in 2020

    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/foreign-buying-of-singapore-private-homes-drops-to-17-year-low-in-2020

    YOU KIDDING ALL TRE READERS on your fake news.

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  • oxygen:

    @ My dearest

    BY THE WAY, there is no law or economics written in heaven which said that foreigners who bought properties in Singapore can’t be roasted if they bought on the top end of the property market cycle.

    Tada and Dyson are two luminary examples – they cleverly cut and run.

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  • oxygen:

    @ I have a friend

    I recalled too reading somewhere of a “junior” Chinese ex-official who traveled with more than a dozen false name and passport caught up and deported to China to face corruption trial.

    Property (and any other fake asset acquisition) like casino chips are used as conduits for illegal money laundering.

    THEY are relatively few isolated transactions and they DO NOT REFLECT TRUE PROPERTY MARKET CONDITIONS for the rest wanting to unload their unit/condo.

    I have a friend ...: Anyway, even junior civil servants in China can buy million dollar properties here, remember the clerk from Poyang municipal owning properties in Singapore and later he was charged in China for embezzlement.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Hi Oxygen

    SURE YOU ARE MISSING SOMETHING, I won’t bother to repeat my prior explanations.

    But thank you for your contributed thoughts, regardless!

    Hi Oxygen: I take it that in a buyer market, the buyers have higher bargaining power. Am I correct?

    If the buyers have better bargaining power, why are they paying higher prices?

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  • oxygen:

    @ PAP can answer better:

    MATE, SURELY YOU KNOW THIS TOPICAL DEBATE is NOT exclusively referring to a few niche high-net worth individuals particular.

    How many players in the Singapore property market can afford to PAY FOR THEIR KIDS’ housing needs when most or nearly all were struggling of decades-long mortgage in the private residential market?

    If affordability is so easy for all buyers, bankers have no business to do any business relating to mortgage financing.

    THIS IS NOT THE CASE.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haha

    MATE, IF YOUR AFFORDABILITY STRETCH from Sydney to downgraded Canberra or worst still Freemantle or the great Australian “bushland” near Wave Rock, me think you can’t afford to pay for part of your kid’s mortgage deposit downpayment.

    So your drivel here is meaningless of contributed thoughts BUT THANK YOU FOR YOUR REDUNDANT CONTRIBUTION, nevertheless.

    Haha: If my great grand children cannot afford one or inherit one here from their parents or grandparents, I have already left a will or rather an advice … migrate maybe to Sydney … if Sydney is too expensive, then maybe Canberra, … if still expensive … Fremantle …if still expensive … Wave Rock, nice place where you can see millions of stars in a clear night

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  • oxygen:

    @ Don’t be a frog in the well:

    MATE, EVEN THOUGH I DO NOT, and I repeat again, I DO NOT, by Sinkie shares, these backdoor corporate bailouts of your mention is NOT “NEWS” to me in assessing Singapore FORWARD PROPERTY OUTLOOK.

    Don't be a frog in the well: Does it seem logical that the government give out covid 19 funds to SBS, ComfortDelgo, Keppel Corp, SembCorp, SembCorp Marine?

    SBS (74% owned by ComfortDelgro) has some government bus contracts, it is getting paid for the contract service, yet it is getting the Covid 19 job relief, etc.

    ComfortDelgro is in black thanks to government relief package and SBS.

    Without those massive stimulus spending worldwide, global economies would have tanked into a tailspin.

    And as for this one of your challenge, I don’t understand its relevance either nor its validity of your strident stance.

    Don't be a frog in the well: Keppel also took the relief, I believe, plus cost of quarantining its foreign workers, and yet it retrenched its workers, and better still, going to give out dividend for FY 2020 despite $500 million loss. Logical? I am not sure it bought back its own shares. If it did, I won’t ask you the same question, logical? Instead it is – ridiculous?

    Whether Keppel dividend payout despite the losses is ridiculous or logical is NOT for me to decide. I am not privvy to its boardroom determination BUT I AM SURE THAT DIVIDEND PAYOUT are issues of corporate governance NOT TAKEN LIGHTLY in any boardroom deliberation,

    What seems “ridiculous” to you might be VERY LOGICAL from the corporate boardroom perspective – the decision-makers have, in corporate law application, obligation to make decision that serves the best interest of the company.

    The interest of specific shareolder/group of shareholders dissatisfaction can be over-ridden in the Foss v Harbottle corporate law.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foss_v_Harbottle

    As for outsider’s objections, the board can ignore these if it is NOT IN THE INTEREST OF KEPPEL AS A WHOLE.

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  • xoxo:

    On property.
    Me thinks property prices are likely to inch higher over the long haul barring any major economic disaster.

    Covid will gradually be over and ,with it,the COVID-recession.

    We shud,instead,allow for a separation of OUBLIC HOUSING and Private Housing markets.

    The govt must BEHAVE AND CONDUCT ITSELF as GOVERNMENT,not meddle incessantly with private sector excessively like it has been.

    Regulari$e and then regulate the PRICING OF HDB.Also reset Purchase and Sale guidelines.
    Non-sgs shud not be allowed to buy and speculate in HDB as is rampant now.

    Non-sg PRs can RENT FROM sgs or direct from HDB BUT NOT ALLOWED TO PURCHASE either primary or secondary markets.

    For a start,REPRICE HDB NEW FLATS TO COST-PLUS BASIS FOR SGS.
    NO MORE *MIS-ACCOUNTING* METHODOLOGY AGAIN!

    HDB MUST REMAIN AS PUBLIC HOUSING FOR SGS AND NOT A PROFIT-SEEKING TOOL FOR THE GOVT OR MON-SGS.

    SGS WHO ARE WELL OFF CAN COMPETE TO BUY PRIVATE WITH FOREIGNERS FREELY.

    WHY TREAT CITIZENS AS IF THEY ARE NON-CITIZENS AND NON-CITIZENS LIKE CITIZENS???

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  • Pse dont trust ST 100%:

    oxygen:
    @ My dearest,

    Your contribution to this thread debate – if I am permitted to be disrespectful of feedback – is LOUSY!

    I explain why.

    You meant the when property mkt is an upgrading ladder – when top end rises, the mass market tagged on and when top end punctured, the lower mass market with same or higher affordability pressure UPGRADE AGAIN?

    It is a one-way ladder – only up- that is sure win bet??

    Where is the market or property cycle another blogger here pointed out brilliantly?

    And this one is a giveaway dead rat.

    Read this article from Straits Times – definitely not my wishful or self-delusion fiction creation I promise faithfully.

    Foreign buying of Singapore private homes drops to 17-year low in 2020

    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/foreign-buying-of-singapore-private-homes-drops-to-17-year-low-in-2020

    YOU KIDDING ALL TRE READERS on your fake news.

    When Ramesh created a scene about his $1.5 million condo.

    He was reported as a Singaporean or PR.

    Then it was revealed wife is a Singaporean, naturalised or not, it is not reported.

    When ura reports majority of the condo are purchased by locals, the Straits times, Business times echo, sometimes louder.

    Locals mean Singaporeans and PRs, Fyi, in Sg context, PRs are not considered as foreigners.

    Also there are many inter racial marriages here naturally with inflow of foreigners, as long as a buyer is a PR or Singapore, and buys a property jointly with his foreign spouse, it is reported a local buys the property.

    Please be more discerning and differentiate fake news from propaganda or political speak.

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  • Aiya, this is Singapore:

    oxygen:
    @ Don’t be a frog in the well:

    MATE, EVEN THOUGH I DO NOT, and I repeat again, I DO NOT, by Sinkie shares, these backdoor corporate bailouts of your mention is NOT “NEWS” to me in assessing Singapore FORWARD PROPERTY OUTLOOK.

    Without those massive stimulus spending worldwide, global economies would have tanked into a tailspin.

    And as for this one of your challenge, I don’t understand its relevance either nor its validity of your strident stance.

    Whether Keppel dividend payout despite the losses is ridiculous or logical is NOT for me to decide. I am not privvy to its boardroom determination BUT I AM SURE THAT DIVIDEND PAYOUT are issues of corporate governance NOT TAKEN LIGHTLY in any boardroom deliberation,

    What seems “ridiculous” to you might be VERY LOGICAL from the corporate boardroom perspective – the decision-makers have, in corporate law application, obligation to make decision that serves the best interest of the company.

    The interest of specific shareolder/group of shareholders dissatisfaction can be over-ridden in the Foss v Harbottle corporate law.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foss_v_Harbottle

    As for outsider’s objections, the board can ignore these if it is NOT IN THE INTEREST OF KEPPEL AS A WHOLE.

    You asked about EDB issuing a cheque to Dyson. The examples are to show the government can anyhow give money. Read and digest and understand the essence of a write up please.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Xoxo,

    I SEE TWO RATIONAL DEBATING VOICE HERE, one is you

    xoxo: On property.
    Me thinks property prices are likely to inch higher over the long haul barring any major economic disaster.

    The other is here.

    Dear Oxygen: Unless there is a black swan, like a war here, like in some countries, property prices will generally go up with economic growth.

    THE BIG UNKNOWN AND CHALLENGE is the eruption of a “major economic disaster” or a “black swan”

    Now, the rest of TRE readers – opposing my views or otherwise – can consider if these observations provide the worrying backdrop besides the pandemic spread.

    thoughts of a few fund managers : Put in a different way — not only are stocks divorced from the performance of the economy, they are even divorced from the profits of the companies they seemingly represent.

    “This remarkable observation leads to a salutary conclusion. The global stock market has nearly doubled since 2008 because the multiple paid for unchanged profits has nearly doubled,……….. One important message for long-term investors is that when a sector’s profits go into structural decline, it is terminal. It is almost unheard of for these sectors to return to structural growth.

    Furthermore, the support to the sector price from falling bond yields is not enough to offset the weight of collapsing profits. In any case, bond yields cannot fall forever

    The incredible backdrop to the global stock-market rally — profits are flat since 2008

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-incredible-backdrop-to-the-global-stock-market-rally-profits-are-flat-since-2008-11611226707?mod=mw_latestnews

    The warnings – particularly the phrase – bond yields cannot fall forever (meaning interest rate must rise) haunts me in my sleep when considering sovereign governments, corporate sector, individuals have never been so highly intoxicated and drowned in debt.

    Central banks and govts lost control over the economy. Even J Powell (when asked of what action the Fed will respond to Gamestop debacle – shot back POINT BLANK – HE REFUSED TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION OF FINANCIAL MARKET STABILITY so critical to global economic functioning.

    WHO SAYS THERE IS NO LURKING BLACK SWANS AROUND THE CORNER or a major economic disruption will never happen in the foreseeable future???

    WHEN ASSET BUBBLES FUELED BY CHEAP MONEY DEBT LEVERAGE IMPLODES, banks veering on insolvency collapse like 2009, Singapore property rocket up to stratospheric height in outcome?

    MADNESS OR SELF-DELUSION? Which one? I don’t know but will know when it happens.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Pse dont trust ST 100%:

    It was @ my dearest (is that you??) who assert strong foreign buying allegedly underpinning Singapore property price resilience.

    Please ask @my dearest for clarifications, thank you!

    Pse dont trust ST 100%: Please be more discerning and differentiate fake news from propaganda or political speak.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Aiya, this is Singapore:

    MATE, IF YOU ARE SURE of your assertion and essence of YOUR WRITE UP, you would make claims of “maybe” paying for table and chairs.

    And you need not switch your moniker to avoid consistency of your presentation.

    Aiya, this is Singapore: Read and digest and understand the essence of a write up please.

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    and best of all, my essence and understanding of the subject-matter in this thread is illuminate in my rejoinder to @ Xoxo at

    oxygen:
    January 29, 2021 at 10:09 pm

    I half guess you are clueless of its content. You are not a rational debater in this thread.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Aiya, this is Singapore:

    Ooop sorry typo error there.

    oxygen: MATE, IF YOU ARE SURE of your assertion and essence of YOUR WRITE UP, you would make claims of “maybe” paying for table and chairs.

    should be read as

    oxygen: MATE, IF YOU ARE SURE of your assertion and essence of YOUR WRITE UP, you would NOT make claims of “maybe” paying for table and chairs.

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  • Thank you, Oxygen:

    oxygen:
    @ PAP can answer better:

    MATE, SURELY YOU KNOW THIS TOPICAL DEBATE is NOT exclusively referring to a few niche high-net worth individuals particular.

    How many players in the Singapore property market can afford to PAY FOR THEIR KIDS’ housing needs when most or nearly all were struggling of decades-long mortgage in the private residential market?

    If affordability is so easy for all buyers, bankers have no business to do any business relating to mortgage financing.

    THIS IS NOT THE CASE.

    You have answered what I was wondering.

    How many Mr Dyson and the likes can afford to buy close to $100 million for a bungalow and penthouse?

    Anyway, it is a small change to him.

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  • Dont get POFMA'd:

    oxygen:
    @ Aiya, this is Singapore:

    Ooop sorry typo error there.

    should be read as

    I won’t assert when I do not have hard evidence, in this case.

    Fyi, Dyson already has 100 staff, plus and minus in Singapore when it announced quitting.

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  • Yes, it is me:

    oxygen:
    @ Pse dont trust ST 100%:

    It was @ my dearest (is that you??) who assert strong foreign buying allegedly underpinning Singapore property price resilience.

    Please ask @my dearest for clarifications, thank you!

    It is the supply, or lack of same, big boys, local buyers, foreign buyers, easy money, property companies/agents’ strategy/tactics (booking extensions, QC avoidance, etc) amongst other factors.

    If you remove the foreign buyers from the equation, let say 5% of the total buyers, the price will drop.

    I have many foreign colleagues, friends who buy condos. Let me be clearer, most buy when they become PR or Singaporeans. Renting in Singapore is expensive vis a vis bank loan. I am happy for them for their right decision, don’t have to pay rent, and prices appreciate.
    Regarding the statistics and charts you quoted, the devil is in the details.

    Please note Singapore gives out more citizenship and PR to employment pass holders vis a vis other holders.

    I understand the China Poyang municipal was a Singapore PR.

    I am not sure if Mr Dyson is a PR, surely he is not a Singapore citizen, he must have some special privileges to buy a landed property here.

    Let me clarify, you keep quoting the drop in high end market prices, Mr Dyson’s penthouse, yes, the whole market crashed in the GFC, and the high end market (like Sentosa Cove’s) is still below the peak I presume based on the charts I saw on the internet, but the mass market is above the pre GFC peak, please scour for a chart that shows otherwise to convince me otherwise. I stand to be corrected.

    I always thought you are a micro guy as you proclaim, look at long term trend, yet you nitpick on my broad statement, if you look at your long term historical charts, is the mass market on the upward trend? Please do not wait for next quarter, if the mass market price were to take a slight dip and you would say now prices are below the peak and will trend downwards based on blah blah blah.

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  • Yes, it is me:

    oxygen:
    @ Pse dont trust ST 100%:

    It was @ my dearest (is that you??) who assert strong foreign buying allegedly underpinning Singapore property price resilience.

    Please ask @my dearest for clarifications, thank you!

    It is the supply, or lack of same, big boys, local buyers, foreign buyers, easy money, property companies/agents’ strategy/tactics (booking extensions, QC avoidance, etc) amongst other factors.

    If you remove the foreign buyers from the equation, let say 5% of the total buyers, the price will drop.

    I have many foreign colleagues, friends who buy condos. Let me be clearer, most buy when they become PR or Singaporeans. Renting in Singapore is expensive vis a vis bank loan. I am happy for them for their right decision, don’t have to pay rent, and prices appreciate.
    Regarding the statistics and charts you quoted, the devil is in the details.

    Please note Singapore gives out more citizenship and PR to employment pass holders vis a vis other holders.

    I understand the China Poyang municipal was a Singapore PR.

    I am not sure if Mr Dyson is a PR, surely he is not a Singapore citizen, he must have some special privileges to buy a landed property here.

    Let me clarify, you keep quoting the drop in high end market prices, Mr Dyson’s penthouse, yes, the whole market crashed in the GFC, and the high end market (like Sentosa Cove’s) is still below the peak I presume based on the charts I saw on the internet, but the mass market is above the pre GFC peak, please scour for a chart that shows otherwise to convince me otherwise. I stand to be corrected.

    I always thought you are a micro guy as you proclaim, look at long term trend, yet you nitpick on my broad statement, if you look at your long term historical charts, is the mass market on the upward trend? Please do not wait for next quarter, if the mass market price were to take a slight dip and you would say now prices are below the peak and will trend downwards based on blah blah blah.

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  • Yes, it is me:

    Yes, it is me: It is the supply, or lack of same, big boys, local buyers, foreign buyers, easy money, property companies/agents’ strategy/tactics (booking extensions, QC avoidance, etc) amongst other factors.

    If you remove the foreign buyers from the equation, let say 5% of the total buyers, the price will drop.

    I have many foreign colleagues, friends who buy condos. Let me be clearer, most buy when they become PR or Singaporeans. Renting in Singapore is expensive vis a vis bank loan. I am happy for them for their right decision, don’t have to pay rent, and prices appreciate.
    Regarding the statistics and charts you quoted, the devil is in the details.

    Please note Singapore gives out more citizenship and PR to employment pass holders vis a vis other holders.

    I understand the China Poyang municipal was a Singapore PR.

    I am not sure if Mr Dyson is a PR, surely he is not a Singapore citizen, he must have some special privileges to buy a landed property here.

    Let me clarify, you keep quoting the drop in high end market prices, Mr Dyson’s penthouse, yes, the whole market crashed in the GFC, and the high end market (like Sentosa Cove’s) is still below the peak I presume based on the charts I saw on the internet, but the mass market is above the pre GFC peak, please scour for a chart that shows otherwise to convince me otherwise. I stand to be corrected.

    I always thought you are a MACRO guy as you proclaim, look at long term trend, yet you nitpick on my broad statement, if you look at your long term historical charts, is the mass market on the upward trend? Please do not wait for next quarter, if the mass market price were to take a slight dip and you would say now prices are below the peak and will trend downwards based on blah blah blah.

    Oops, I’d better correct lest you say I twisted your proclamation.

    It is macro, not micro.

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  • xoxo:

    @ Mr oxygen

    Thanks for being the Voice of conscience
    here at TRE.
    Enjoy and benefit a lot from your generous contributions.

    If only more sgs wake up,it will be good for our nation as it matures.
    Education without DISCERNING is fruitless education.

    Look at scholars who are tasked to form the IB here.
    Very subjective and mostly arguing for argument sake.
    How can we progress like that?
    Elites becoming elitist will cultivate $elf-serving and ultimately destroy the nation.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Thank you, Oxygen:

    MR. TADA is a billionaire real estate developer. Read somewhere in the net that he also bought property in NY and didn’t do brilliantly well either.

    Investing in property for profit is NOT an easy game even for the most informed and experienced hands as real estate agents hawking that to be so.

    Thank you, Oxygen: Anyway, it is a small change to him.

    And yes, Dysons, Tada are rarity buyers class of their own. The million $$$ HDB buyers, if genuine, are also in the same category though of much lower $$$ value size deal.

    In Sgp case, some of the $million (much older with short residual lease) HDB resale buy could be just money laundering. Singaporeans are smart enough to buy new BTO for much cheaper – location doesn’t matter – if they can spent over $1 million for public housing, they can afford a car too.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Thank you, oxygen

    ALMOST FORGOTTEN, thank you for your participation.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Yes, it is me.

    THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTELLECTUAL HONESTY on the debating floor. I know I am debating with ONE mind – agreeable or disagreeing DOES NOT MATTER in finality.

    I am NOT surprised of what you (I abbreviated) what U wrote below

    Yes, it is me: I have many foreign …friends who buy condos…. Renting in Singapore is expensive vis a vis bank loan. I am happy …. their right decision, don’t have to pay rent, and prices appreciate.
    Regarding the statistics and charts you quoted, the devil is in the details.

    Given low interest rate environment globally, yields in “safe” investment like banking deposit/treasury bond yield is “SMALLER than peanut”. Liquidity fled to higher risks asset classes – BUBBLES EVERYWHERE AND EVERYTHING – from gold, to bitcoin, to GameStop, junk bonds, to SPACs, IPOs like Uber, Alipay got smacked down (is a warning sign of Govt fear of tech domination) to airline stocks bond issue to Tesla etc etc (shaking my head) and yes to property of course.

    My thoughts are that none of this is sustainable – property buyers are NOT THE SMARTEST LOT of investing for profit game – I call these asset traders. They look at BUBBLY INFLATED EQUITIES and say Tesla pay not dividend yield flew to MAR pricing on the NYSE, other’s paying 1% to 2% yields. These property buyers will do this – INSTEAD OF PAYING RENT of X$ per annum, WHY NOT EXTRAPOLATE 1% to 2% yield (rent pay to landlord) and project it to what would I pay by buying/owning the property myself.

    Besides property, I see brick and mortar, it is mine after X years.

    Clever move right?

    STUPID I SAY, when the economy is down, jobs disappear, foreigners leave, rent fall. SUDDEN THEY RE-CALCULATE, the yield (if they rent out to others) is 0.5%. They then realise, too late, THEY PAID TOO MUCH for the property bubble in good times.

    Which is why I said

    oxygen: Remember, property is BOND PROXY INVESTING – if you bought US treasury 10-yr bond paying an average of 2.5% annually over 10 years horizon, YOU HAVE DONE A LOT BETTER

    Property buyers’ don’t understand that, at macro-level – when BUBBLE BURST AND ALL BUBBLES MUST BURST guaranteed – equities, gold, bitcoin WILL COLLAPSE except debt (borrowings). And most maybe 98% rely on varying size banking loan to fund – will be trapped with insolvency. Brick & mortar looks secure, safe, prized possession BUT IT IS DEBT.

    Which is why I said

    oxygen: The warnings – particularly the phrase – bond yields cannot fall forever (meaning interest rate must rise) haunts me in my sleep

    I AM SERIOUSLY CONCERNING.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Yes, it is me.

    I AM A MACRO MIND, but don’t not leave/ignore the micro when the two disagree.

    If you think/conclude that I nitpick on your broad statement, I apologize even if you are “mistaken”

    Yes, it is me: yet you nitpick on my broad statement, if you look at your long term historical charts, is the mass market on the upward trend?

    I actually AGREES with your assertion above.

    Where is the proof?

    oxygen: Of course, all hard asset values OVER THE DECADES have to go up. So you are NOT entirely wrong of this observation (even though not explained of the economic logic underpinning)

    WHY IS THIS SO?

    Very simple.

    If the property prices fall X percent of its original buy price across the board, BANKING INSOLVENCY risks WILL ERUPT because of exposure to property loans. We saw some banks gone under, other merged to survive in the GFC due to sub-prime mortgage lending

    I haven’t MADE THIS UP now to sell you lies. Property is hard assets, not like bitcoin or even gold bars or treasury bonds (which may rise a little when bond yield falls)

    and as for this

    Yes, it is me: Please do not wait for next quarter, if the mass market price were to take a slight dip and you would say now prices are below the peak and will trend downwards based on blah blah blah.

    I don’t judge property outlook by qtrly statistics. Remember, please I am a MACRO mind.

    A black swan event or the pandemic/economic event is what I fear most of a threatening risks forward.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Xoxo

    I THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR your invigorating refreshing contributions to TRE read too.

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