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Four rings connected with the KTV clusters

The minister for health Ong Ye Kung explained the four rings of people who are connected directly or indirectly with the KTV clusters in this video.

Ring 1 – 170 staff and patrons of the KTV lounges captured by Safe Entry and Trace Together – 17 tested positive (10%)

Ring 2 – 1,664 staff and patrons not captured by SE/TT – 25 tested positive (1%)

Ring 3 – 2,000 people in close contact with the 17 infected people, mostly outside of KTV lounges – they are legally required to be tested

Ring 4 – 10,000 people who visited malls and other places that are visited by the 17 infected people (captured by Safe Entry) – advised to monitor their health.

Here is my analysis of the infection.

The 17 positive cases (10%) under ring 1 are likely to be mostly staff of the KTV lounges. Their exposure is high.

The 25 positive cases (1%) in ring 2 represents the rate of transmission of close contacts.

I would expect maybe 0.5% of ring 3 to b tested positive. That may give 100 cases. But the final number is likely to be much lower.

I expect 0 cases from ring 4. I believe that the Safe Entry recording is likely to be not useful.

I also believe that the infected cases are likely to be mild.

The minister mentioned the 14 day incubation period where more cases may be captured in the first 3 rings. I think that this may increase the 1% to 1.5%, but the impact is likely to be small.

Will this cluster explode and get out of control? If it does, we will see the number of new cases increasing in an exponential manner from the table below.

It has already started to decline.  So, the situation is probably under control.

 

Tan Kin Lian

 

 

yyy
READER COMMENTS BELOW

28 Responses to “Four rings connected with the KTV clusters”

  • liew mun leong must be jailed:

    all the CB and HA end up hurting only the innocent.

    why not close up the borders. wait until the covid virus has completely died down. then, selectively allow into pap island folks who present the least risk of re-infecting the innocent.

    the pap mantra the test, the trace, the vaccine won’t work unless the borders are all closed off completely.

    this is not a matter of bobian.

    it is a matter of lack of brains.

    lockdown seafood market. who suffers? everyone, cotton sheep and 39%. so stupid really. make own folks suffer by continuing to open up borders when everyone outside of pap island is almost 100% certain to re-infect the innocent in pap island.

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  • Unlinked cases Ezlinked?:

    Is it possible that the unlinked cases could be ezlinked by trains and buses?
    If it’s true, Mass Rapid Tests should be conducted on every commuter.

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  • Report:

    What 4 ,5 ring? One unlink taking MRT half day enough already….

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  • Asd:

    I think better stop bull shit theory about internal spread and just stop importing the few foreigner trash disease in the first place

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  • xoxo:

    The THING i abhor OYK for is the ACTSY MANNER he projects whenever he attempts to brush away his BIG POLICY ERRORS(or that of his BO$$’s,per se?).

    This bloke tries so hard to IMPRESS.
    But,honestly,if you are good(n capable),it projects naturally by itself,most naturally becos it is part of you,your nature.

    OYK is unfit for public DUTIES becos he is too vain.

    This is my sincere take.
    It is better for all,including his party n himself,that he considers to resign from his official post.

    The PAP SUCCESSION PLAN IS ATROCIOUS,imo.

    Put a square peg in a round hole,you get adverse outcomes.
    Maybe the hole becomes bigger…?

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  • xoxo:

    Health aside,i am sure H$K is way better than OYK in various aspects of govt.
    And ,even i consider HENG not the PROPER CHOICE at this unsteady moment.
    Who is OYK?
    WHAT ARE EXACTLY HIS VALUABLE N MEANINGFUL EXPOSURES in govt in reality?
    FTAs?

    Acting *great* is not the same as doing great.
    Lee Ah Long is at fault for putting the wrong blokes in his succession plan.

    At least,humbly take stock and rectify.
    Cant you even do that?

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  • xoxo:

    Look closely and see why this COVID PANDEMIC IS SO WIDE-SPREAD N PERSUSTENT.

    Very fundamental.
    There is too much *greed* in the current world!

    Govts are more concerned about ECONOMUC$ THAN HEALTH RISKS.
    This is the TIME TO SLOW DOWN N TAKE STOCK OF SO-CALLED GLOBALI$ATION that has been crazily taking place.

    If Jeff Bezo$ n Richard Branson can fly to outer space,why cant THE RICH N POWERFOOL$ try n help RESOLVE THE WORLD’S current ills?
    WHY ARE THE COVID BUDGET$ GOING *TRAFFUCKED* INTO PUMPING UP THE STOCK MARKET$ N MINTING MORE N RICHER BILLIONAIRE$?
    REMEMBER,IT IS A PANDEMIC PERIOD?
    STOCKS FLYING TO *OUTER SPACE*???
    MAYBE THEY SHUD TRY TO FLY TO MERCURY AS WELL?

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  • xoxo:

    Again,WHAT PROPORTION$ OF EXTRANEOUS COVID-DMBUDGET$$$ GO INTO MESSAGING REAL DOMESTIC AGGREGATE DEMAND(FOR GOODS N SERVICES) THAN INTO THE FINANCIAL MARKET$$$?

    WITHOUT PROPER ACCOUNTABILITY,WE WONT KNOW!
    LOOK,WHERE IS THE GROWTH?
    STOCKS ,BASICALLY.

    CAN YOU *EAT* STOCKS ?
    WHO GAIN FROM STOCKS’ PRICE INCREASES?
    THAT ELDERLY WOMAN WHO NOW IS NOT EVEN ABLE TO COLLECT CARDBOARD FOR A FEW CENTS BECOS OF COVID?

    GOOD MONEY GOING INTO WRONG HANDS N *MOUTH$*???

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  • 4G Leaders Got Fooled:

    Although 4G Leaders are good in studying, but they are not street smart. They got fooled by the KTV owners who are very smart in making money by hook or by crook.

    How can the 4D leaders trust the KTV owners by letting them convert their business to Food and Beverage joints ? The KTV owners are laughing their ways into the banks.

    We need leaders who are not only book smart but street smart and who have the brains to anticipate any future problems. I do not know whose idea it was to let the KTV owners convert their business into F & B joints and even subsidize them with S$50,000 each from Taxpayer money. WTF

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  • xoxo:

    See,even George Yeo kena fired by AJ.
    What about those are no better than him?

    GRCs or not,if one lousy minister is in that GRC,VOTE THEM OUT altogether so that MAKING USE OF GRC TO GET VOTED IS RENDERED USELESS.

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  • Public Tpt the Culprit:

    Public Transport generates ‘Unlinked’Cases?

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  • Lye Khuen Way:

    So, what will be the 5th Ring?
    SuffeRing?

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  • Blowing cock:

    I always found it strange that KTV kena cluster and Geylang never kena. I mean Geylang activiries more intimate right? Maybe it’s the safe entry. Hahahahahahah…

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  • Got grant no virus:

    So did the authorities, se,tourist board n police check on bars n clubs converted to f n b although never want $50k grant.

    Got check or not ……..come clean ……….don’t just say those with grants got no virus!

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  • Realistically:

    >>Ring 1 – 170 staff and patrons of the KTV lounges captured by Safe Entry and Trace Together – 17 tested positive (10%)<<

    The TT-token is supposed to function in the manner that an infected person wearing his/her TT-token dongle would be captured by the then healthy person who becomes infected…………even WITHOUT either person first having to 'scan' the token at the entrance.

    If it is a requirement that EVERY TT token holder scans his/her token at the entrance, then it functions just like the scanning of one's NRIC. So why mandates the use of the useless token when it is much safer and cost effective especially so when the NRIC scan method had been used for more than a year?

    Unless the objective is to hide the waste of $ spent on useless token as the token idea originated from the GovTech division headed by the son of the emperor without clothes, Li Hongyi? I can't think of any other reason for adopting the useless TT token.

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  • Smart Nation:

    If they want the people to live with the virus, they should not have retreated back to Phase 2 Heightened Alert. They should find other ways to manage the “endemic” as they called it. Ask TKL – he is seldom short on ideas! It is difficult for businesses to plan and operate, especially in F&B, if the govt keeps switching Phases – relax, restrict, relax, restrict. MOH has managed over 60,000 cases with good results. What is less than 200 cases compared to several thousand cases a day in other countries? Is the MTF panic-stricken and over-reacting to the recent cases? After declaring their bravado to the world about living with the virus, why suddenly shrink back to Phase 2? Instead, they should follow through with their announcement like what the U.K. govt Is doing to find out what it is like to live with the virus and then assess the situation.

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  • MarBowling:

    Smart Nation:
    July 22, 2021 at 12:32 am (Quote)
    “After declaring their bravado to the world about living with the virus, why suddenly shrink back to Phase 2? Instead, they should follow through with their announcement like what the U.K. govt Is doing to find out what it is like to live with the virus and then assess the situation.”

    Response: THINK it’s a HIDDEN Game Plan by Husband and Wifey Tag Team to RAM UP the VACCINATION FIGURE to ACHIEVE the Sheep Herd Immunity ASAP given the FAST and FURIOUS ARRIVAL of their $billions Committed Order of the Pfizer vaccines that have ONLY 6 months SHELF LIFE! Both are ANXIOUS and SWEATY under their armpit when hundreds of thousands of folks especially those above 70 are STILL UNDECIDED whether to take the Holee Jab or NOT! So one of the Game Plan is to IMPLEMENT this HAP2 thingy to INCONVENIENT the general public as well as the BUSINESS folks so that sooner or later, these folks WILL START TO BLAME those UNVACCINATED folks for being UNPATRIOTIC, STUBBORN and LAST but not LEAST, PREVENTING Mai Hum to RESUME his OPEN-LEG POLICY to FTs and by extension achieving his TARGET of 4-6% GDP by OPENING UP THE ECONOMY for INVESTORS and VISITORS to SinKapore. Putting “FEAR” and “INCONVENIENCE” into those with OLD FOLKS living with them MAY SPEED UP THE VACCINATION RATE, even at the expense of see peh jialuck for business especially those small ones! Like Simon always say: what do you think?

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  • MarBowling:

    Given the PENCHANT of Tan Golden Chain since the outbreak of Covid 19 in DOWNPLAYING the ROLE and SIGNIFICANCE of our World Class Ministerial Trash Force in Handling the Pandemic(even calling them INSANE), THINK sooner or later Health Minister Ong Toh May instruct his men to PUT the 5th RING around the neck of Tan Golden Chain to PREVENT FURTHER damage to the REPUTATION and IMAGE of the MTF!

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  • Random Rings & Clusters:

    Public Transport & Toilets are Random Rings & Clusters

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  • Sorry, not interested in how many rings anymore.

    With extra time on hand, now toying with blockchain tokens, see if I can create one play play or not.

    Still trying to decide a name for it.

    Any good ideas?

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  • Realistically:

    The kind of spin by the emperor without clothes regime’s MMTF only promotes the loss of credibility of the regime.

    I have on 17 May 2021 written to the regime’s MMTF with queries as to why the MMTF/MOH failed to adhere to the ICNIRP’s protocol even as MMTF/MOH had said that the radiation from the USELESS TT token was within the ICNIRP’s safety limit, but to date the MMTF/MOH/GovTech has failed or refused to provide the substantive reply.

    I post the relevant extract from the ICNIRP document with the link so that readers can satisfy themselves as to the truth, economy of the truth or simply untruths and the effectiveness or otherwise of the emperor without clothes regime’s epic failures:

    https://www.icnirp.org/cms/upload/publications/ICNIRPprinciples2020.pdf

    Abstract—In this statement, the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) presents its principles for protection against adverse health effects from exposure to non-ionizing radiation. These are based upon the principles for protection against ionizing radiation of the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in order to come to a comprehensive and consistent system of protection throughout the entire electromagnetic spectrum. The statement further contains information about ICNIRP and the processes it uses in setting exposure guidelines.

    Basic premise ICNIRP aims to provide advice on protection against adverse health effects from both short- and long-term exposures to non-ionizing radiation and uses the WHO’s definition of health: “Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.”

    Fundamental principles

    The fundamental principles of ionizing radiation protection are

    Justification, Optimization, and Limitation: •

    Justification: any decision that alters the radiation exposure situation should do more good than harm;

    It should be noted, however, that the exposure guidelines are not meant to be protective for people with certain clinically substantiated diseases or conditions that may make them more susceptible to harm from non-ionizing radiation

    Transparency

    ICNIRP considers it important for all steps in the guideline setting process to be transparent about why and how decisions are made.

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  • to-and-fro and to-and-fro:

    //why not close up the borders. wait until the covid virus has completely died down. then, selectively allow into pap island folks who present the least risk of re-infecting the innocent.//

    unlikely the white monkey gang is going to ‘close’ the border ?? sinkie land economy is too intertwined with the need to be open-leg (as open-leg as possible as far as the white monkey gang is concerned, else why still able to see the too many buildings being built, for whom ????) ???

    most likely, it is going to one-two-three-steps forwards and then one-two-three steps backward (to-and-fro and to-and-fro ??) to manage the cases (the best of the worst strategy ???) ??? what to do, convid88 has forced the hands of the white monkey idiots ???? the very seriously ill from infection will be collateral damage (with perhaps the unvaccinated being the ‘scapegoats’ as many are still unvaccinated ???) ???

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  • Ong Ye Kung talking cock:

    Strait Times: Irresponsible behaviour of KTV cluster not the reason for return to tighter Covid-19 rules: Ong Ye Kung

    OYK must have a short memory or believes Singaporeans have. Only 3 days ago. he said KTV and Jurong Fisheries Port cluster are linked.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/search?searchkey=ktv%20and%20jurong%20fishery%20port%20clusters%20linked.%20

    If they are indeed linked then it is not correct to claim now that the irresponsible behaviour of KTC cluster is not the reason for return to tighter Covid-19 rules.

    OYK is “splitting hair” to mislead the public and hide the fact it failed (again) big-time in the KTV cluster. Now it is blaming Indonesian fishermen for Jurong Fisheries Port cluster. Where is the proof? Also, did MTF knot know the risks at Jurong Fisheries Port having to deal with fishermen from Indonesia. What measures were taken, IF ANY, obviously falied. MTF FAILED AGAIN.

    MTF’s work is shoddy just like almost everything else in Singapore. Shoddy workmanship is the norm in Singapore especially in the public sector because there is no adverse consequences (like being sacked) for screwing up. Since the start of the pandemic PAP has been mostly “reactive” instead of “proactive”. It actions are based mainly on “wishful thinking”. It has fumbled its way tackling the pandemics and uses the country’/s reserves to “clean up” the mess it created by its stupidity and incompetence.

    Those in control are certainly not earning the millions they are paid each year. Time for REGIME CHANGE. PAP is a “spent force”. It should be buried with LKY.

    SINGAPOREANS FIRST. ALWAYS. SEND FOREIGNER HOME TO SAVE TAXPAYERS’ MONEY.

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  • PAP failed. AGAIN:

    Straits Times: Auditor-General finds wastage of $5.39m of public funds at HPB over excess fitness trackers, overpayment at PSD

    WTF! To make matters worse I am quite sure no civil servant or stat board employee will be sacked for this expensive fiasco.

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  • Widespread:

    PAP failed. AGAIN:
    Straits Times: Auditor-General finds wastage of $5.39m of public funds at HPB over excess fitness trackers, overpayment at PSD

    WTF! To make matters worse I am quite sure no civil servant or stat board employee will be sacked for this expensive fiasco.

    The audit is only selective, i.e. not complete. Even selective audit shows so much shit everywhere. ST surely do another “selective”. The real misbehavior must be widespread.

    “In its audit of the Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth, the office found that supporting documents for claims contained signs that they could have been photocopies of one another, with alterations made to the dates and duration of services rendered.

    At the Education and Home Affairs ministries, AGO said it came across instances where there were signs that supporting documents were created or even backdated to satisfy queries.

    For the Housing Development Board, it was found that quotations for some items could have been created or altered to give the impression that they were obtained from other suppliers.

    And at the People’s Association, possible irregularities found include signs of falsification of quotations, alteration of hard copy payment supporting details and the creation and backdating of documents.”

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  • maths idiot:

    OYK and the legend of the four rings

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  • Very Fishy:

    Whoa!whoa!whoa! Fishy business indeed!
    Fish mongers making tons of money like PAPigs.
    Many more ordinary sgs cannot even afford to buy fish these days.
    Rob common folks and splash on KTV gals.

    Karma not happy,now all kena COVID.

    Fish is important for general diet.
    Time for govt to look at fish-market pricing.

    Same like stock market.
    Stock prices keep rising in pandemic?
    Does it look like businesses suffering?
    Lever mine,LOOT MORE RESERVES TO PUMP UP STOCKS.
    H$K,u still there? Or,now Lawren$e?

    Then make money,go celebrate at KTVs!!!
    Now,ALL HAPPY HOUR @home???

    Reserves Authorisor HaLEEmah diam diam.
    No need to account at all?
    Where our RESERVES went to?
    Many NEEDY SINkaPOOR still waiting for govt to top up the shortfall of $23 K as they received only $600 out of $23.5k as announced?

    People’s Presiden,can you do justice for the many needy sgs who have bee short-changed?
    How come NON-CITIZENS GET MUCH MORE from SGS’ RESERVES?
    IS IT FAIR?

    NO WONDER SO MANY PRs refuse to take up govt’s offers of Citizenship.

    Hey,Presiden,we are crying out loud,are you still there?

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  • Elite:

    Why use 4 rings as an analogy to explain instead of clusters. Why so complicated. I am on a look out for the 5th Ring. Don’t mistaken it for the Olympic symbol. Very bad omen to use the Rings to emphasis a point. If the 5th ring appear. It’s going to be the Ring of Fire. Please stop the 5th Ring or look out for the 5th Ring. Before things get worst. It will be too late as all rings end of the day are interlinked together.

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