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Shaggy Warriors On Scooters And Donkeys II

President Biden did his job, not perfectly but in the end, effectively. With material and monetary aid being siphoned off to corruption, the only option was more American military presence basically to fight a war that the Afghans were unwilling to fight themselves, at least not in an organized way that was supported by credible central government. As soon as Biden ordered the evacuation of all Americans and of their Afghan allies, the collapse of the Afghan army and government began. No Afghan government soldiers or officials wanted to have to fight the Taliban without the Americans to back them up. They made a rational, if not particularly heroic, decision to save what they could. [LINK]

Taliban didn’t take over Afghanistan for running the government. If no money is generated, Taliban’s end is not different from the Afghan government. It then will be a huge problem for its neighbors, particularly Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran. Of the (many) problems for Afghanistan is that there are two parts to the Taliban. There is a leadership level that is thinking about running (or at least “owning”) a country. But they are quite disconnected from the Taliban on the ground – the hordes or 18-20 year olds running around with AK47s. Drunk on power, uneducated and feeling that as the “winners” they have the right to extract vengeance on the losers.

It is hard to imagine the Taliban governing a nation of 38 million people. With their motorcycles and pickup trucks, they resemble a gang that just stepped out of a Mad Max movie. Yet, they have regained power and have shown themselves to be cunning and skilled in the exploitation of media and social media. And they were Afghans, in effect, fighting the proxies of a foreign superpower.

Maybe Biden had that in mind all along. So, the debacle in Afghanistan was Biden actually playing three-dimensional geopolitical chess against China, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia. This catastrophe is all going to end up into a beneficial endgame for the United States, thwarting the regional ambitions of its’ rivals.

Afghanistan is surrounded by Iran, Pakistan, China, Uzbekistan, Tazakistan and India. This realization will come but not so soon. Conservative talking points suggest China is the big winner here, but like so many complex issues, examining a few layers below the surface may indicate otherwise, and you make a very strong case for ‘the otherwise.’, yes, the Chinese will take their bucks into Afghanistan in an effort to monopolize the effect of the natural resources – but there’s risk involved, as the Chinese found out in Venezuela. It could turn out very poorly, given the ignorance and brutality of the Taliban. They blew up some Chinese engineers in Pakistan.

The region is far from settled & loyalties may flip on a dime. Britain, Russia & lately the US – all of these have given up trying to make sense of that region & it is not for lack of trying but other priorities in the South China sea & elsewhere beckon.

Now the question is, will US, UK, Russia, and India involve in a Chinese civil war if Mainland tries to unite with Taiwan by force? This is even trickier since US only recognize one China, the Mainland. It is not like North/South Korea/Vietnam where there were two established and recognized countries. The strategic question this time has grown sharper. When the Chinese Amphibious forces start to make their way across the Taiwan strait does the US President move submarines, carriers, and Marines to stop them? Or does he leave for Camp David and hope it is all over soon?

Maybe Kamala Harris have the answer when she comes a calling this weekend. Hope our leaders know they must tread trepidatiously on the deep blue seas up north unless Moses is with them!

 

Sjorne Shen

 

* Part 1 is here.

 

 

yyy
READER COMMENTS BELOW

20 Responses to “Shaggy Warriors On Scooters And Donkeys II”

  • Singaporeans R Free Riders:

    Maybe Biden had that in mind all along. So, the debacle in Afghanistan was Biden actually playing three-dimensional geopolitical chess against China, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia. This catastrophe is all going to end up into a beneficial endgame for the United States, thwarting the regional ambitions of its’ rivals.
    ==========================================================
    Very insight article.

    Not like gullible Oppie supporters who had no deep thinking power.

    吳子嘉:台積電、賣軍火美國在這裡大有搞頭!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPaiy457Oy0

    GE2024.PAP.Guarantee.Win.All
    Majullah $PAP$ $PAP$ Huat$ Huat$ Huat$

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  • Temusik Patriot:

    Kamala will be served a 10 course dinnet and not Tea & Coffee by Vivien leh
    …Not the actress hoh!

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  • xoxo:

    Naval presence *booster* is main reason for Kamala’s visit.
    Is Sg going to take side with angmohs?
    Dont try to act smart.
    We ,sgs,dont need KAYPOHs to screw us up.

    Sg is NOT PAP.
    SG BELONGS TO sgs.

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  • xoxo:

    @SS

    Kamala is going to meet up with the taLEEban here?

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  • Smart Biden:

    Biden does what the other Presidents could not.
    Let them run their own country and kill among themselves.
    Save America money and resources.
    They will learn hard lesson when they become the Government.
    Not so easy to feed so many people.

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  • zoro:

    Quote: Maybe Kamala Harris have the answer when she comes a calling this weekend. Hope our leaders know they must tread trepidatiously on the deep blue seas up north unless Moses is with them!

    ~~~~~~

    If our leader is silly enough to say “one china”, then if our time comes with our neighbors flying Jian-20 to reclaim us as One-north or One-south, US should also turn away.

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  • #06-181 stupiak ho:

    Those people bent on being top puppy, always seeking to outdo, outlast and outplay, always are the true anti socials, enemy of mankind, creating problems for others.

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  • PAP mandate strong:

    Chinese chauvinism or Ang Mo tua kee ism aside.

    https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CsGEHh412kEeLEab7lXNmw
    友趣 || 中国驻阿富汗工程师:美军天天开着飞机坦克来工地蹭饭

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  • Straits Times talking cock:

    Straits Times: Quality affected as construction sector adjusts to headwinds – Kang Wan Chern

    Quality of work in the construction sector has ALWAYS been bad. Its productivity remains low often even negative. What Kang Wan Chern is really saying is it will get WORSE.

    Who is to blame for the above. The blame belongs to “Mr GDP”, i.e., Lee Kuan Yew and the self-serving, greedy and pro-alien PAP. It never upgraded the “trades” (masons, carpenters, steel workers, bricklayers, electricians, painters, etc.) in the construction sector. They kept the pay for these trades low to reduce construction costs for HDB flats and other infrastructure projects. The results is SHODDY WORKSMANSHIP – the norm in the local construction industry. Want examples? The recent collapse of a concrete structure in one of JTC’s properties and the collapse of the basketball backboard in Bedok that killed a teenager are good recent examples of the quality of work in the construction/renovation sector.

    The pay for the trades is so low that young Singaporean do not / cannot afford to go it. The trades sector is reliant on UNSKILLED WORKERS from South Asia. The quality of their work as seen in HDB flats proves they are basically unskilled.

    In other developed countries, those in the trades can earn a decent wage and have a good life but not in Singapore. The PAP pushed the MAJORITY (70%) of each cohort out of local tertiary education but did not ensure they can get a good paying job without a university education or by going into the trades.

    PAP wasted the HUMAN CAPITAL of Singapore, it only real asset, because it considers well-educated Singaporeans as a threat to PAP’s political dominance. This is likely true as shown by the loss of Sengkang GRC to WP during the last GE.

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  • Blame PAP:

    Straits Times: TC cordons off area around industrial building in Bedok after parts of concrete roof fall

    This is another example of the SHODDY WORKMANSHIP in Singapore. Another recent example is the collapse of the structure holding up a basketball backboard in Bedok. This killed a teenager. This is clearly NOT an accident. It is also clear that the East Coast Town Council headed by DPM Heng Swee Keat is responsible and accountable for this tragedy. But he has not accepted responsibility – typical PAP.

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  • Prof Wei Shin YU:

    Dear Sjorne Shen
    It appears that there won’t be a US-China war over Taiwan, because:

    1. USA is unable to defend Taiwan, according to this:
    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/524707-us-taiwan-china-defensible/

    2. All China has to do is to shoot missiles over Taiwan’s sky everyday, like it did not that long ago, and many Taiwanese would flee, including the army and the Americans. The economy will also be in ruin.
    Taiwan’s US anti-air missiles costs $m each, but how many can Taiwan afford to shoot every day – 1000?

    3. If China freezes Taiwan’s air and sea routes, and jams its telecoms, day in and day out, will USA send several aircraft carriers to protect, and for how long — 30 years?

    4. US can sell any arms to Taiwan, but China can send commandos to bring them back?

    5. LKY said China was happy with the status quo, because Taiwanese students/experts could study in USA without any restrictions and then work in China. This is even more important now.

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  • left behind:

    America not likely to send troop to Taiwan if China attack Taiwan. America will not risk itself into a nuclear war, which is not in its own interest. Even if America did, it will retreat after some years like Afghanistan when America politics change. By then, China will attack and take over Taiwan. The reason why China did not attack Taiwan is because America economic sanctions on China will have a big effect on China economy. China most important concern is a good economy which provide jobs for his people. Every people has an income and China will have peace. Creating job is paramount to feed China population. Without jobs for China billion population, there will be chaos. Money is most important in Capitalism, without money the whole society will collapse. Everybody needs money for advancement, progress, daily needs and for greed in capitalism.

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  • Ang chia:

    More Alkaida will be formed.. they love bombing.

    The us left them all the Arsenal to do it.

    Need for patrolling by the Ang chia!

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  • Sjorne Shen:

    @Prof Wei Shin YU,
    thank you for the broad perspective. True.

    Taiwanese people want absolutely nothing to do with a war with China and they realize their lives are measured as dust compared to US strategic interests. Many have relatives and companies in China, particularly in Fujian. They return to China often, to do business, visit relatives, and to worship in the original Guanyin shrines that most Taiwanese revere.

    But Biden’s main foreign policy focus right now should be on keeping US alliances in Asia militarily and diplomatically strong so that territorial disputes are faced peacefully. The only way the Taiwan issue turns to war is if the US keeps up the provocations (military incursions by sea and air thousands of miles from US soil etc… ) in the end, the question is whether US is willing to go to war with China in its backyard and far from any of its’ territory over an island which they admit is part of China (whatever the average person in Taiwan thinks)? Even so, It would be a world disaster if a potus wants to bring about ‘end times’ for his rabidly irrational base……That is a scary scenario.

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  • USA best:

    Where are those who are angry that HK police “shot” a protestor half blind?

    Come here. Be very angry with US for shooting an unarmed protestor dead. Ruled to be ok, blameless.

    https://www.rt.com/usa/532853-ashli-babbitt-killing-lawful-case-closed/
    The Capitol Police officer who shot an unarmed Trump supporter dead during the January 6 riot on Capitol Hill won’t face disciplinary measures, and will remain unidentified, the force announced after an internal probe concluded.

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  • Singaporeans R Free Riders:

    USA best:
    Where are those who are angry that HK police “shot” a protestor half blind?

    Come here. Be very angry with US for shooting an unarmed protestor dead. Ruled to be ok, blameless.

    https://www.rt.com/usa/532853-ashli-babbitt-killing-lawful-case-closed/
    The Capitol Police officer who shot an unarmed Trump supporter dead during the January 6 riot on Capitol Hill won’t face disciplinary measures, and will remain unidentified, the force announced after an internal probe concluded.

    Prai$e the Money…

    This is human rights for Americunts ok… for all others and Hong Kong, it is human dung.

    GE2024.PAP.Guarantee.Win.All
    Majullah $PAP$ $PAP$ Huat$ Huat$ Huat$

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  • Kaiju:

    @ Prof Wei Shin YU

    Since US is not going to defend Taiwan why don’t CCP try it?
    Take back Taiwan tomorrow?

    There are already US military in Taiwan. So, ain’t this the red line of CCP?
    What’s stopping your master to take Taiwan back?

    Talk is cheap, do it.

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  • Kaiju:

    Quote: 2. All China has to do is to shoot missiles over Taiwan’s sky everyday, like it did not that long ago, and many Taiwanese would flee, including the army and the Americans. The economy will also be in ruin.
    Taiwan’s US anti-air missiles costs $m each, but how many can Taiwan afford to shoot every day – 1000?

    The brain so simple. Shoot missiles everyday? Just say shooting something cheaper, how about shoot rockets everyday for a year? Shoot where? The seagal fish? Why not just pick a building and shoot it everyday like target board practice? And yes, of coz Taiwan-US missiles are expensive and to keep in museum for display. Of coz, you need to ruin Taiwan economy, just like China ruin the world economy using the virus. Ruin every household living via each lockdown, don’t even need a rocket.

    Quote: 3. If China freezes Taiwan’s air and sea routes, and jams its telecoms, day in and day out, will USA send several aircraft carriers to protect, and for how long — 30 years?

    Yes, yes of course you are smart, jam the signals, how about cut the under sea cables too and shoot down the satellites above? In your brain can only think this much? Want to start a war is so easy. If me, when send to chase your planes, i will just drop one of my lau-pok-car plane down into the sea, and wala, cry father and mother that you shoot down my plane and demand compensation. Will you compensate? No? I send my planes and soldiers to claim then. 30 years? Just need 3 minutes.

    4. US can sell any arms to Taiwan, but China can send commandos to bring them back?

    Send commandos? Why not say send your girls to claim it back in the night club boys out session?

    5. LKY said China was happy with the status quo, because Taiwanese students/experts could study in USA without any restrictions and then work in China. This is even more important now.

    LKY is dead. He said he will jump out of his grave too. Still waiting for his resurrection.

    Hey China, can you send someone smarter than this? At least send auntie Hua or uncle Zhao type quality.

    Tech: So childish, you think China siao liao issit? Shoot missiles everday? US’s SAM $1m each, China missiles free one issit? Block Air and Sea passage, China got so siao bo? Do that and pissed the whole world off and give them chance to tekan China? You think China’s top honchos all think like the PAPies huh?

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  • Kaiju:

    @ Sjorne Shen

    The key lies not in the americans but the taiwanese.
    How many taiwanese have business over at china currently?
    One in every hundred?
    How many taiwanese still have relatives in china currently?
    One in every ten?

    And, would anyone here give up fighting for your life and livelihood for your relatives or your relatives will all come to your aid when your life is screwed?

    No decent person will want a war, no war will skip a decent person.

    The american will leave when taiwanese do not want to contribute for their own defense. So, nothing is more useful than threats and treats the taiwanese to give up their current status.

    All readers should remember this: Taiwanese had not fought for their independence yet. Neither did singapore.

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  • Jake Pentecost:

    oh no, Godzilla is rampaging again. This time the Fukushima reactor waters has got onto his brains.

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