Flaw in computing the degree of protection provided by vaccine

This article claims that the vaccine prevents 90% of covid deaths, based on a large scale study in Scotland.

There could be a flaw in the calculation.

Let me explain.

Suppose there are 1 million people in a population of which 800,000 (80%) are vaccinated (vax) and 200,000 (20%) are not vaccinated (unvax).

Suppose we have  400 deaths from the vax and 1,000 death from the unvax.

We first compute the death rate from the unvax as 1000/200,000 = .005.

If we apply this rate to the vax, we should get .005X800,000 = 4,000 deaths.

The actual deaths is 400, so we say that the vaccine reduces the deaths by (4,000-400)/4,000 = 90%.

Here is the flaw in the computation.

We are assuming that the profile of the unvax is the same as the vax.

This is a fallicious assumption.

It is likely that a high proportion of the unvax are people with co-mobilities who are likely to avoid the vaccine because they fear the potential serious side effects.

Even if there was no covid infection, the death rate from the second group (i.e. unvax) would still be higher, due to their profile.

I do not know if the difference in the health profiles between the vax and unvax groups have been adjusted for in the above study. There was no mention that it had been adjusted.

Based on the figures in Singapore, which showed a similar difference between the death rates for the vax and unvax groups. there was no adjustment for the difference in the age or health profile.

I believe that the vaccine does provide a good degree of protection against covid, but not the the extent of 90%. The actual figure could be much lower.

My view is that the vaccine does help to a fairly significant extent, but we should not over rely on it.


Tan Kin Lian





6 Responses to “Flaw in computing the degree of protection provided by vaccine”

  • oxygen:

    STATISTICS AND ITS INTERPRETATION can be easily manipulated. I trust no political cows and entities with vested financial interests in this regards.

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  • illiterate pap voters:

    if no vax, more or less people die per day?

    nobody knows.

    but it is also true that more people died the past 3 months than the whole of previous 18 months. why?

    pap MTF does not know.

    WHAT to do?

    the right thing to do is to stop all border crossings until covid has completely died down. pap is not only not closing the borders but is opening them wide. how come like that?

    according to pap, it needs S$m pa for each of its members and so pap needs to ensure S$ making is more important than virus spread.


    WHO suffers from pap action? both 61% cotton sheep and 39% OPPO suffer, including those stupidestest pap PA paid IBs from Msia.


    fair and square. everyone who voted pap and everyone who voted PSP WP suffer. the only disconnect is the pap Ljs and pap Cbs who live in GCB and move about in private cars are happily collecting their S$m pa and unaffected one little bit by the virus.


    61% cotton sheep dug its own grave and the graves of 39% too.


    those who live in pap island are so pathetic even Indosia does not allow any citizen from pap island to enter Indosia.


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  • xoxo:

    Data supplied by those who want to $uck more money.
    The sampling may be *BIAS*.
    The statistical modelling may be manipulated to show certain intended outcomes?
    Like PRs and Sgs lumped together in Sg’s various stats produced by govt?

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  • Right on, TKL:

    “We are assuming that the profile of the unvax is the same as the vax.

    This is a fallicious assumption.”

    Yes, any comparison between the groups is baseless. Politicians sinking in their jobs are grappling at imaginary straws. The people suffer from such inept politicians.

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  • Harder Truths:

    If the Covid Vaccine Protects, How Are the Unvaccinated a Threat?

    To wit ..

    There is no known evidence that vaccination protects anyone, not even the vaccinated. Indeed, the scientific and medical evidence, attested to by thousands of experts, is that the vaccine is more deadly than Covid. The vaccine not only causes huge numbers of injuries and deaths (witness the soccer players) from adverse reactions, but also degrades the innate human immune system, leaving people exposed to a wide range of diseases. For example, there are reports that cancer cases are exploding.

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  • 94% Vaccinated:

    TKL, your analysis does not serve much purpose.
    94% of eligible people in Sinkiestan [older than 12] have already decided and got themselves vaccinated.
    No way to reverse the decision.
    Spend your time more usefully.
    Anyway, leave the medical science to the medical scientist.
    There are enough of these scientists in this world.
    Do not be like Dowager, Calvin Cheng et al…
    This is not your field of expertise—it is only insurance!

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