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The Coming Crunch

According to a survey of 1002 workers, 24% of Singaporean workers plan to resign in the first half of 2022. 49% are unsure if they would stay in their jobs. The pandemic looms large over the workforce, with 42% of respondents thinking about leaving their jobs and citing the pandemic as a factor. Other major contributing factors include disliking their current job (49%), increased stress (46%), workload (44%), burnout (33%) and isolation (20%).

As of time of writing, 52000 employees remain unvaccinated against Covid. They will be barred from returning to the workplace starting 15 January. Partially-vaccinated workers have until 31 January to complete their vaccination regimen. If they cannot be redeployed to remote work positions, they risk being placed on no pay leave or being terminated outright. Terminating an employee for not being vaccinated would not be considered wrongful dismissal.

The Ministry of Manpower says termination is a ‘last resort’. That’s not happening on the ground. I have received stories of people who’ve been placed on no-pay leave in preparation for termination, have already been fired, or have been reassigned to duties that demand physical presence—in other words, forcing them to choose between the jab and their jobs. And all this took place before the latest advisory. With the latest advisory, these stories are coming in thicker and faster than before.

Everybody knows that it’s only a matter of time before the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated are completely banished from offices and workplaces. They may not necessarily lose their jobs altogether, but Singapore is a culture that prizes face time in the office and respect for authority. Even if they keep their jobs, their promotion prospects will be stunted, as will their bonuses and other incentives.

I expect to see three major waves of unemployment in the coming months. The first will take place on 17 January, the Monday after unvaccinated employees are terminated. The second will be on 1 February, when the remaining partially-vaccinated employees are also removed from the workplace. The third wave will take place over the next three to six months, as ‘no pay leave’ transitions into formal termination. Mass resignations will likely take place after Chinese New Year, after workers receive salaries, bonuses, red packets and other such incentives. Potentially thousands, or even tens of thousands, of workers will either be fired or will leave their jobs over the next half-year.

The economic impact of so many workers losing their jobs all at once cannot be underestimated. While the mass resignations and terminations may represent only a small fraction of the workforce, that is still thousands of families affected, which means the lives of tens or even hundreds of thousands of people will be affected. It would represent a significant drop in household incomes. As more and more workers resign or are terminated, the labour crunch is going to get worse.

The blowback will spread across every industry in the nation, and touch the lives of everyone. Increased prices and household bills. Rising unemployment. Reduced spending. Rising inflation. Small businesses forced to shut down. Relocation of international businesses. Reduced capacity to deliver goods and services. Constrained expansion of businesses. With Singapore being the most expensive city in Asia, low-income workers and their families are going to bear the greatest burden. Compounding this is the ongoing supply chain crisis, inflation of the US dollar, and the planned GST hike from 7 to 9 percent in 2022.

The above photograph was taken at Orchard Xchange on Christmas Day. The underground shopping strip, right next to one of Singapore’s largest malls, is a ghost town. The situation has been ongoing since June, and the other Xchanges aren’t exempt. It could be a taste of what’s to come in malls and small shops across Singapore.

The pandemic will blow over sooner or later. I’m confident that Omicron spells the beginning of the end, as Covid becomes increasingly less deadly. If the next variant confirms Covid’s evolutionary path towards decreased lethality, then the world will finally be able to confidently exit the pandemic.

The impact of the Great Termination will be more keenly felt, and will linger for a longer time.

Under regular economic circumstances, employers may seek to relieve a labour crunch by offering higher salaries and better incentives to attract manpower. It won’t happen here. With the unvaccinated permanently barred from the market, it will take longer to fill in manpower gaps. The unvaccinated won’t be able to find jobs that demand physical presence. Even if those vacancies are filled, employers will seek to pass on the labour costs to the customers through increased prices. The impact of such a move is not governed by the laws of biology; it can merely be attempted to be predicted through the theory of economics.

This worst case scenario may not come to pass. But we have to plan as though it will. We can always scale back our plans should the worst fail to occur. It is much harder to scale up if things are worse than expected.

Being fired from your job carries a stigma. Being fired for refusing to take the vaccine makes it worse. Whatever a person’s reason may be for refusing to take the vaccine, from a Singaporean’s perspective, this signals noncompliance, stubbornness, and nonconformity.

In a nation that prizes compliance and conformity, this is the ultimate social sin.

 

Benjamin Cheah

* The author blogs at https://www.benjamincheah.com/.

 

 

 

 

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READER COMMENTS BELOW

35 Responses to “The Coming Crunch”

  • Biden's Flatuous Blurps:

    This is great news, and it’s just the beginning. Just another instance of our economy in the tank when workers who, pre-pandemic, may already been teetering on the edge of quitting companies with existing poor company culture saw themselves pushed to a breaking point. This drove out already disgruntled workers who could plainly see they were working in unsupportive environments.

    Maybe they also quit to become “job creators” or “disruptors” or “innovators” (or whatever the parasitic ruling class can call themselves these days, mayors?) Black Plague contributed to the demise of feudalism in Europe. So fewer serfs to share resources with more resources allocated to the ones who survived, empowering workers and changing people’s expectation of the government’s role in the economy? What could be next?

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  • Its Good For The PAP:

    It was reported that in Germany, most of the Omicron patients are those Germans who have received the full vaccination plus the booster jab.

    I expect more voters will vote against the PAP in the coming GE. Its about time for some of them to retire and have a good rest.

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  • Singaporeans R Free Riders:

    In a nation that prizes compliance and conformity, this is the ultimate social sin.
    ==============================================================
    So Benjamin, what is your point ?

    Example, you had a dicky by nature (compliance) but you want to be a she (non compliance) by removing it because you stupidly buy into Americunt propaganda of freedom of choice to choose your sex.

    To be compliance or not to be compliance ?

    PAP supporters please print/distribute/share my post.
    In Dollar$ We Tru$t. Prai$e the Dollar$. Glory be with the Dollar$
    GE2024.PAP.Guarantee.Win.Again
    Majullah $PAP$ $PAP$ Huat$ Huat$ Huat$
    Singaporeans must be Cheaperer, Betterer, Fasterer

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  • Dr. Chan:

    @Singaporeans R Free Riders
    It is not Americunt propaganda.
    It is leftist liberal ‘woke’ bullshit who says man is woman and woman is man – sexual identity is what you want it to be. So man can use woman’s public restrooms.

    The Conservative Americunt are against all this BS.

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  • mrWie:

    “… and it’s time to bring in more foreigner”, said the emperor.

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  • Singaporeans R Free Riders:

    Dr. Chan:
    @Singaporeans R Free Riders
    It is not Americunt propaganda.
    It is leftist liberal ‘woke’ bullshit who says man is woman and woman is man – sexual identity is what you want it to be. So man can use woman’s public restrooms.

    The Conservative Americunt are against all this BS.

    Dear Dr Chan,
    I am afraid the conservative Americunt voices will be drowned out by all the leftist liberal media.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Benjamin Cheah

    IS THIS THE BEGINNING of the end of PAPpynomics’ FAKE economy resting on (imported foreign) “POPULATION RECYCLING ECONOMIC” now collapsing.

    Those terminated will be trapped in this enigmatic quagmire – their next job will be on lower pay but a disrupted economy (due partly to labor market disruptions of resignation/termination) will see supply shortage/disruption and bottlenecks and of course with that RISING COSTS (as some fixed costs like rent, discarded spare parts, bank financing, fuel etc) pass on to consumer who has less discretionary spending means. That also means losses or shrinking profits from shrank sales revenue base.

    More cheaper foreigners will be imported to displace “uneconomic” local labor, PMETs now employed will be shaken out of their hot seats, and small retail shops shrinking in operation merely to survive on the parasitic margin of a broken economy.

    IS THIS THE END OF PAPpypolitics/PAPpynomics fantasy economic model of debt-funded commercial skyscrapers and artificial beauties funded out of reserves/CPF money of peasants?

    IS THE END OF PAPpypolitic finally in sight?

    Of course, PAPpypolitics farts out and smelly that Sinkieland will emerge “stronger” after 2022 “transition” year. Transition to WHAT exactly, the cotton sheep wasn’t told. Maybe like the Orchard Xchange mall photo outcome?

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  • PAP has the mandate:

    Its Good For The PAP:
    It was reported that in Germany, most of the Omicron patients are those Germans who have received the full vaccination plus the booster jab.

    I expect more voters will vote against the PAP in the coming GE. Its about time for some of them to retire and have a good rest.

    Stinkies are a bunch of gutless yellow pansies. Stinkies will be extinct before PAP loses the election. lol

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  • opposition dude:

    Like that then good, otherwise how to ensure that PAP’s vote share will confirm 100% fall in the next election right? These people out of work for years come to their sense don’t give a damn and vote opposition like how it was in 2020 will ensure that PAP loses even more seats than 2020!

    Losing a single GRC one at a time is far too slow so the number has to be increased to 2 to 3 per election. The more opposition voted in the less of PAP’s nonsense we will hear. It’s a numbers game in parliament after all.

    So go ahead and retrench/sack as many locals as possible, we all can’t wait for when the next election will be announced and send PAP a STRONG and CLEAR SIGNAL!

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  • Clowns Of Parleeament:

    Can you imagine how many more would become jobless if MTF were to decide now that those who took 2 shots of mRNA vacSINs but refused to go for the booster would no longer be considered fully vacSINated? This is prolly the reason they’ve delayed the move. They’re studying the impact on the economy should too many singaporeans lose their jobs. If the pandemic has ended, of course they’d have no concern as foreigners are easily available to take over singaporeans jobs.

    So, now they’ve to wait and see the consequence when those who took the non-mRNA will be revert to partially vacSINated for refusing to go for the booster.

    \
    Tech: Don’t worry, akan datang, wanna bet?

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  • Anyone who believes and thinks that these wayang policies are there for the good of the general public dearly needs to get their heads check.

    Mark my words: When Sinkieland is completely rid of the C19 (i.e. no daily infections), these policies will STILL be in place with the excuse that the C19 is not rid from planet Earth.

    These policies have nothing to do with the general good, that’s just a bloody excuse to hoodwink the daft. It’s been and always about the LEEders getting what they want, and so it has to be 100% vaccinated, regardless of whether vulnerable dafts are injured or dead.

    If 50,000 peasants have to be paralysed or dead to achieve that 100%, then so it shall be. Isn’t it obvious now how they shove the BS policies down your throats, with total disregard for anyone or anything else?

    Don’t beleive me? Fine, get MTF to commit officially that when Sinkieland has ZERO infections (which is practically impossible unless they shoot everyone on the island), they will lift all restrictions, see if they dare commit bo?

    Time will tell.

    * Truth be told, I used to trust the PAPies in some certain things, but since the C19 fiasco, I find that I can no longer trust them in anything.

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  • illitearte pap voters:

    Biden's Flatuous Blurps:
    This is great news, and it’s just the beginning. Just another instance of our economy in the tank when workers who, pre-pandemic, may already been teetering on the edge of quitting companies with existing poor company culture saw themselves pushed to a breaking point. This drove out already disgruntled workers who could plainly see they were working in unsupportive environments.

    Maybe they also quit to become “job creators” or “disruptors” or “innovators” (or whatever the parasitic ruling class can call themselves these days, mayors?) Black Plague contributed to the demise of feudalism in Europe. So fewer serfs to share resources with more resources allocated to the ones who survived, empowering workers and changing people’s expectation of the government’s role in the economy? What could be next?

    pap has been shouting since Monday Jan 3, 2022 that the economy has done very well in 2021 and because of this, in Feb, after Chinese New Year, pap heng is going to announce GST rise to 9% due to the good economic performance of Singapore in 2021 under pap.

    cotton sheep, many of whom are jobless, and many of whose children and grandchildren are under employed, all agree with pap that 2021 has been a good year for cotton sheep and these cotton sheep all agree one with the other that without pap Singapore would not have performed so well in 2021.

    these cotton sheep are so ffffing stupid. they have eyes that don’t see and they have ears that don’t hear.

    THE only people who do well in pap Singapore in 2021 are the pap mayors, pap MPs, pap employees and pap clan elders.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Clowns Of Parleeament:

    YES, THE CRUNCH IS ARRIVING ON our shores.

    502 of 842 new COVID cases in Singapore are imported, 3 deaths

    https://sg.news.yahoo.com/842-new-covid-cases-singapore-3-deaths-143113797.html

    and one medical expert warned of this

    ‘We can’t vaccinate the planet every six months,’ says Oxford vaccine scientist

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/04/health/andrew-pollard-booster-vaccines-feasibility-intl/index.html

    Clowns Of Parleeament: Can you imagine how many more would become jobless if MTF were to decide now that those who took 2 shots of mRNA vacSINs but refused to go for the booster would no longer be considered fully vacSINated?

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  • illitearte pap voters:

    Today Jan 5, 2022 at 8am+, Fox News Tucker Carlson said, Singapore is not a place you want to live in, with Singapore being classed no differently with Lagos and New Mexico.

    It is very good that the West is starting to see the slum in pap Singapore as 39% has been trying to tell 61% cotton sheep.

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  • illitearte pap voters:

    Correction.

    Tucker Carlson said it at 9am+, although it was 8pm+ in the USA east coast when he said it.

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  • Soccerbetting2:

    Stated above :Quote-”…The above photograph was taken at Orchard Xchange on Christmas Day. The underground shopping strip, right next to one of Singapore’s largest malls, is a ghost town. The situation has been ongoing since June, and the other Xchanges aren’t exempt. It could be a taste of what’s to come in malls and small shops across Singapore….”Unquote.

    Response : Yes,the picture is real some weeks vack.However,the above picture does not show the whole real thing for this picture with no shops opening just show a small portion of around orchard mrt area.The ion mall shopping centre,wheellock place,wisma Atria ,….and surrounding area beside orchard mrt are often full of people ,crowded with almost 100% of the shops opened .In fact, orchard road shopping mall area is still full of shop tenants and still opening .Take for example the dhouby Ghaut mrt has a kopitiam forced closed because the owner told me that the next door blood bank shop wants to expand and take over their business shop area not because the kopitiam owner wants to closed it inside dhouby Ghaut mrt .Something very fishy ? Why ? Because dhouby Ghaut mrt is a very mrt and has lots of space ! Why ,so hard up to forced small kopitiam inside it to close down and take over it.There is still so much space inside dhouby Ghaut mrt that can be occupied but the blood bank insistence to take over the small kopitiam is fishy ! This is because the evil backside women wing of Lee Hsien Loong government wants to close down all low prices kopitiam shops to give more business to higher prices kopitiam shop ! So you have no way to buy cheaper food from cheaper kopitiam and you need to eat,then buy at higher prices kopitiam shops loh ! Pui ! Pui ! Lee Hsien Loong evil backside women wing government is really evil ! Pui !

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  • Has it ever occurred to anyone that with the MTF’s blatantly and openly bullying the unvax and degrading them to being the scums of society, one fine day, some cult members may take it upon themselves to teach these scums a lesson and wallop a few up?

    When that happens, it would be interesting to see if the law agencies would charge them or simply give them a slap on the wrist, since they did not wallop a human being, but merely a low-life scum.

    What do you think?

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  • MarBowling:

    Understand latest news from the Ah Neh Express that a NEW Covid19 variant called the IFU oops IHU has been RELEASED oops FOUND in France. The variant is reported to have 46 TENTACLES oops MUTATIONS! They said it’s originated from Cameroon!

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  • Cu:

    Did the vulture took a swap test?

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  • MarBowling:

    Btw Uncle Sam has RECLASSIFIED SinKapore into the “Unknown” category for its Travel Health Notice (THN) levels. In other words they have placed SinKapore under RA aka Category 3 oops should be Category Level 4 because our INFECTIONS BY COVID19 AND ITS VARIANTS LIKE OMICRON ANY MAYBE LATER IFU oops IHU are EXTREMELY FARKING HIGH. Thought most Sinkaporean have FAITH and TRUST in the Husband(Mai Hum)and Wifey(Holee Jinx)Tag Team and by extension the World Class Ministerial Trash Force of the 3 STOOGES when they OPENED their LEGS WIDE WIDE FOR INVESTORS AND FTs from CECALAND to FLOCK to SinKapore again via VTL! Everyone was very farking happy and confident that our country would be back to NORMAL SOONNgiven the 90% vaccinated rate to become the most VACCINATED COUNTRY ON PLANET EARTH and ALSO the reported GREAT GDP figure for 2021!

    HOW COME NOW, unlike his best buddy, ex President Donald Lame Duck Trump who used to give Mai Hum some face, the current President Sleepy Joe has TREATED Mai Hum like a Leper! WHY? Karma?

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  • Clowns Of Parleeament:

    @oxygen

    Since the start of 2022, imported cases has totalled 1,344 in 4 days, out of which 777 cases are Omicron!

    1st Jan = 260 imported, 128 are Omicron; (local omicron = 27)
    2nd = 297 imported – 119 omicron; (local omicron = 36)
    3rd = 285 imported – 183 omicron; (local omicron = 4)
    4th = 502 imported – 347 omicron; (local omicron = 91)

    With omicron being so transmissive, is it even possible that there are only 158 local omicron cases when there’re already almost a thousand cases from imported?

    Is this the reason US CDC is scratching their heads and have decided to reclassify sg as UNKNOWN? ?????

    And to read an idiot website says that OYiKron predictions of an omicron wave has come true, it’s really so laughable! Are the idiots really clueless that some people have been playing with numbers? Or the idiots really have so much trust in the hell minister?

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  • Trilogy of hell:

    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/us-cdc-singapore-covid-19-level-unknown-travel-health-notice-2415721

    How come US CDC don’t know that as SG is living with the virus knowing no. of Covid infection is not that important because what is important is whether one is vaccinated!

    If you are unvax you go to places with zero infection.

    Next, will the trilogy of hell ban all unvax from staying in mainland SG & order advisory to stay in zero virus islands of SG?

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  • xoxo:

    Just you wait for the King Covid Mutant called OngYiCock!

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  • Harder Truths:

    I am so happy. I have always dreamed to see the day that the Regime made locals into unwanted beggars or misfits. The jobs are going to the FT, so no sweat to any company that dares stay in $G. The majority will leave $G anyway – there is no reason to stay. Especially banks and international brands keeping $G as a business hub will uproot.

    Virtual work and services means hubs are online. The Regime has destroyed the locals but the fault is the people who keep voting stupidly and let it happen.

    Who cares who wins or loses in the next election farce? $G’s economy has gone. Kaput. the world has changed and $G lives in yesterday’s economy. $G cannot change because the Regime will never allow it to. It will collapse because this is better to the leeders than them stepping down.

    If the stupid Regime voters think things are bad now, wait a couple of years. $G is fu*ked and this is just the beginning.

    How exciting!

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  • Harder Truths:

    HAHAHAHAHA
    Vaxx is valid for 270 days or 9 months! Then have to vaxx again or cannot enter mall cannot work and cannot anything. Those vaxx in April 2021 already gone case.

    https://sg.news.yahoo.com/covid19-fully-vaccinated-status-singapore-primary-series-101024138.html

    People live in fear of not being vaxx but after vaxx live in fear of dropping dead. In $G can never win.

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  • Calvin, lau tiko turtle:

    Reminds me of the old song “Knock Three Times”
    “Oh, my darling
    Jab three times
    On the arm if you want me
    Mmm, hmm, twice on the arm
    And the answer is no”

    lol

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  • Reply:

    UNKNOWN,2022 word of the year.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Clowns Of Parleeament

    CDC’s credibility and integrity, alongside FDA, have long been flushed down the sewer.

    Clowns Of Parleeament: Is this the reason US CDC is scratching their heads and have decided to reclassify sg as UNKNOWN? ?????

    Please view this U-tube presentation on 4 November 2021.

    ‘What Percent Of CDC Employees Are Vaccinated?’: Cassidy Grills Walensky At Senate Hearing

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QabAtYBnqro

    Think about this – what percentage of CDC and FDA employees REFUSED VACCINATION which their employer/s “approved” for mass public inoculation roll out?

    CDC now urges everyone 12 and older to get Pfizer’s COVID booster

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cdc-advisers-support-covid-boosters-for-12-to-15-year-olds-01641421616?mod=mw_latestnews

    I am not sure which entity of the two is a monkey or a chimpanzee BUT COMPEL TO CONCLUDE THEY BOTH WALKABOUT WITH TWO D*CKS one of which is cancer-infected of reliability and public confidence in their doing and pronouncements.

    They both work for political masters aka POLITICAL COWS.

    Did our health, life and safety matters to them at any moment of calm informed contemplation?

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  • Realistically:

    @ Benjamin Cheah

    >>The pandemic will blow over sooner or later. I’m confident that Omicron spells the beginning of the end, as Covid becomes increasingly less deadly. If the next variant confirms Covid’s evolutionary path towards decreased lethality, then the world will finally be able to confidently exit the pandemic.<<

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ihu-new-covid-variant-meaning-france-b1987716.html

    IHU: New Covid variant with 46 mutations worries experts in France
    —-

    The IHU variant has 46 mutations……..more than Omicron

    Read the article yourselves.

    Sinkies should just thank the wayang-party MPs for what former wayang-party Sec-Gen & MP for 30 years said of the role of the wayang-party – that it is a "CO-DRIVER" of the bankrupt regime of the emperor without clothes…………so while the wayang-party MPs continue to luxuriate on their $16k monthly MP allowance, sinkies have to bear the risk of future negative effects from the mRNA vaccines, if that come to pass, and of course the miseries, sufferings, loss of jobs and PREVENTABLE DEATHS of hundreds of sinkies.

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  • Realistically:

    By the way, I hv read that the 3rd booster shot does NOT prevent one from breakthrough infection with US celebrity Wooopi Goldberg being an example, while Israel has authorised 4 shots………..I’ve also read that booster shots do NOT prevent break-though infection for a couple of months…not sure how frequently one has to continue being vaccinated……….

    For me, I’ve been following what WHO Sec-Gen. advice to double mask; longer safe distancing; not going to crowded public places; hand washing…..sadly, the emperor without clothes regime & his MMTF keep up their (failed) policy of vaccination alone………with hundreds of PREVENTABLE deaths as a consequence. Too bad………I’ve been warning sinkies of unfavourable outcomes since early last year……..whereas the wayang-party Sec-General, MP & LO, Pritam Singh believed that the Mayours’ combined pay amounting to 0.003% of the Budget would help sinkies re he COVID-19 pandemic……..HUAT AH!

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  • Jokers:

    Whatever fault of the Republicans is actually the fault of the Democrats.

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  • Goodyear:

    Come CNY2022 we will hear the “Roar of the Tiger” & hopefully we see roaring business starting from Chinatown to the rest of SG & the ushering in this CNY with Pinky’s greetings of 2% GST increase! Huat ah!

    Will the pandemic end in the year of Tiger as the Covid virus take cover when they hear the “Roar of the Tiger?”

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  • Threetrees:

    Covid soon will realise that no need to
    Mutate further because human are hopeless.,..?

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