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Data Sense & Sense of Balance

Most people don’t understand statistics and how the Law of Large Number works but yet, they start to give nonsensical comments.

Whenever people give their observations, they will quickly brush it aside as “not scientific” or “just your observations” or “isolated small observations” etc. Even when people commented that they have seen a significant change in observations for a PROLONGED period of time, they started to question about the validity of linking it to anything, definitely not the V!

The famous excuse used is “correlation doesn’t mean causation” but they just tell you half of the story, “correlation may mean strong signals of causation” which indicate that we need to be very careful and study further whether it may really be the case, especially when there are logical and sound hypothesis made.

When such phenomenon or observations lasted for months or half a year or more, it means that this is not just an one off event or “outlier” observation but may be an indication of a fundamental change in situation and we must find out why.

Especially so, when aggregated raw big data has started to show a disturbing trend of prolonged period of consistency of deviation from past data, it actually means SOMETHING IS REALLY WRONG!

I do not need to know whether each and every patients ferried by the ambulance I heard or seen are carrying V or UnV people to come to that conclusion that something is very wrong. I don’t even need to know whether they have died or not because I see more funerals around my neighborhood already!

In fact, when the big data coincides with my observations, it just means that my individual experience isn’t just “outlier” but it is happening all over Singapore and thus, result in showing in these big data.

Data science may be a complex subject with a powerful inferences but it is built on fundamental principles of statistics which isn’t that difficult to understand.

Only people with a bias mind would try to deny everything when all the signals given by the data is pointing towards their inconvenient Truth.

A hypothesis based on scientific theory has long been made and prediction was made a year ago about the situation we are seeing happening right now.

Yes, I only believe in data and that doesn’t mean I don’t take individual’s observations into account. In fact, big data will be the summation of all happenings. If your observations coincide with what the big data trend is saying, you are not outlier but in the midst of the effect of these happening.

 

Goh Meng Seng

 

 

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READER COMMENTS BELOW

6 Responses to “Data Sense & Sense of Balance”

  • xoxo:

    Lets just say STATISTICS IS *skewed* towards ABUSE N MANIPULATION in many instances.
    Its time an NGO audit our skewed statistics.
    Hey,what exactly are PRs numbers under the (LOCALS) EMPLOYED?

    It must be over glaring !

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  • P Against People:

    Even if this gov show citizen employment, it is useless. 40% of citizens are new citizens.

    Unless gov shows citizen employment for those born in Singapore.

    xoxo:
    Lets just say STATISTICS IS *skewed* towards ABUSE N MANIPULATION in many instances.
    Its time an NGO audit our skewed statistics.
    Hey,what exactly are PRs numbers under the (LOCALS) EMPLOYED?

    It must be over glaring !

    GD Star Rating
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  • Temusik Patriot:

    Ah seng,gov data n statistic is what the sheep need to know n those who know to keep gussing…take the 10cts offered n be happy…30cts for them to evaluate 60ctes to keep paying that is D&S

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  • opposition dude:

    What with the many reports on the internet about people dying after being vaccinated you know it’s all true but our newspapers would never, ever, dare to print something like that so as not to malu PAP.

    We can only go along with the passage of time. While people have died soon after being jabbed we still do not know over a few decades how many might die before their time is up. How many have myocarditis and blood clotting for example? And for those who are jabbed today as teens how might the vaccine damage their body when they are in their 20s and 30s?

    And the insane PAP is already talking about jabbing children from 6 months old to 5 years! We can expect another new variant in October and November based on past history so let’s see how infectious and how deadly it is before we rush into things.

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  • Reality:

    The sad reality is that there will be higher medical costs in the future, whether due to the effect of the Covid or the Vaccines.
    Countries should prepare for it.
    Already the number of Kidney cases is increasing…

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  • Aussies dying:

    Undertakers are run off their feet with abnormally high numbers of Australians dying – and it’s not just because of Covid. Undertakers being kept busy with more Australians dying than normal this year.

    Melbourne undertaker Martin Masson sees an increase in 40-60 aged deaths. Doctors not sure why more are dying but are concerned it mirrors the UK. Possible factor is that people have avoided going to the doctor for check-ups.

    By David Southwell For Daily Mail Australia
    Published: 02:06 EDT, 18 September 2022

    Every reason except vaccine?

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