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Not everyone can be a ‘Contrarian’

Not everyone can be a “Contrarian”, so to speak.

I am a typical person with Contrarian personality: in politics, investment, data analysis, health management, UnV, Lifestyle etc.

However, I do not always “aim” to be Contrarian. Most of the time, the REAL Contrarian SURVIVOR Instincts come from the observation of the mass. If the mass or majority of people are behaving mindlessly, irrationally, emotionally or even in total disbelievable stupidity, it means herd mentality has set in. This is the time to consider CAREFULLY to become a Contrarian.

A Contrarian isn’t a person who act on impulse but rather through a complicated resoning process. Most of the time, we depend on indepth study of trends, data, information, cost and benefits analysis, risk analysis, tangible and intangible analysis and alot of logic and common sense deductions are made before we decide to go on Contrarian position. We do not aim to be a Contrarian for the sake of being Contrarian.

If the Mass is acting rationally, following the crowd isn’t a bad decision at all.

For example, when there is a forest fire burning its way towards the town, it is only rational and logical for everyone to run for his life! Do you choose to be a Contrarian and run towards the forest fire or stay back and wait for the fire to approach you at such critical juncture? Of course not! Unless you want to commit suicide!

On the contrary, when you see a bunch of nutty people rushing towards the sea when the waves are rising extremely high, do you just follow them to have fun even though you don’t know how to swim? Of course not! That’s basically herd mentality in play!

Someone opined that Temasek Holdings is being “Contrarian’ when it invested in FTX and all those Crypto related companies. Nope, that’s nothing Contrarian about it. It’s plain stupidity and herd mentality at play. All of them, those supposedly obscenely paid “talents” are not thinking logically and making good impartial risk assessment but basically jumping into the high wave sea mindlessly because other people are also rushing in!

They rush into FTX and all Crypto related companies without even basic Core understanding of the industry. It’s just because of hype and everyone is talking about it, investing huge money into it, talking big about it, how great the potential is with a company once valued at $500m only could possibly jumped 64x on valuation to $32B!

Do they really have any CONCRETE JUSTIFICATION to believe that crap? We have heard none from them.

They basically acting like irrational unthinking herd rushing in for something that is only a dream or belief, nothing concrete.

Nope. That’s not what “Contrarian” means nor how a “Contrarian” will response and act. Contrarians are highly sharp and deadly rational people. They act on Cold Logic, not hot minded madness.

Warren Buffett is a successful Contrarian, although he also lost money in some investment but he acts on cold Logic and full data analysis. He only believes in investing in something that make sense to him, definitely not Crypto nor some overhyped tech stocks.

Temasek started investing heavily in all these crypto related crap when the crypto currencies were skyrocketing in prices. They didn’t act Contrarian even though they refrain from speculation in crypto currencies but chose to invest in the infrastructure and platforms.

The whole crypto wild fire was just a huge Buble hype created and supported by gross excess liquidity. A Bubble of nothing, not even a tangible physical asset in place, will not last but burst.

It’s really an insult to Contrarian community to equate Temasek Holdings as Contrarian. They can’t even spot glaring fraud right before their eyes, how could they profess to be a Contrarian?

A Contrarian will see through frauds and scams double quick and that’s how they beat others who just get cheated as they just caught in herd mentality of greed.

 

Goh Meng Seng

 

 

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READER COMMENTS BELOW

10 Responses to “Not everyone can be a ‘Contrarian’”

  • Goh Makes Sense:

    Lousy excuse exposed by GMS!

    Yes. That’s not contrarian. That’s following the sheep herd off the cliff.

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  • Yoong Siew Wah:

    Bravo GMS. This is indeed a cutting comment on the ignorant ignominy of these highly-paid mercenaries like Ho Ching. What can be done to have a more egalitarian society?

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  • MarBowling:

    Great piece by GMS!

    One Holee Word to SUM UP and Describe the Self-Proclaimed “Contrarian” – GREED! period!

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  • Serious governing issue:

    Imagine the whole nation Singapore is run like Temasek where people who make losses in FTX investment by making wrong decision is getting away with punishment. It is a governance issue. People are not accountable for mistakes and every dollar and cent of public fund are not accountable. Some elite have free pass and they can do whatever they like without being punish for their wrongdoing. This is not the way to run a nation. It bring back past issue when “scholar can do no wrong” and “let’s move on”. It is occurring now and will continue in future and the citizens are paying for these people mistake. Town council invest in Lehman brothers products, they get away; foreign labor flooding they get away; insufficient housing supply causing housing price rise they get away and GST increase causing inflation they get away with it. Scholars make mistake, they do not pay, it is you the innocent one who pay. YET these people who make mistakes, come out to give speeches to educate people their twisted logic. They remain in high post and remain as leaders. What is justice? This is not justice.

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  • xoxo:

    TH’s FTX N CRYPTOs is CONTRARIAN MUST BE VERY contradictory to what CONTRARIAN is?!
    Its CROWD BEHAVIOUR rather.
    Let me tell you a simple example of CONTRARIAN CONDUCT.
    THE G PUTTING OUTSIDERS(FTs/PRs) interests before SG CITIZENS.
    Try that in other COUNTRIES and see if you are asked to STEP DOWN BEFORE YOUR TERM IS OUT.
    Another way to look at CONTRARIAN is how the daft 60 pct majority keeps voting for the $AME PAPple who keep $crewing them GE AFTER GE.
    This will never happen in another country,even just across the Causeway.

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  • I_am_CBAM_cbAngmohs'_nemesis:

    I am a contrarian myself. First post by GMS that I had to give him the thumbs up!

    Temasek & Govt. already lost their audience and at the critical juncture they abandoned common sense (and sensible language) and plunged into specialized vocabularies and S$371M onanistic bastardizing of the
    quintessence of true contrarians.

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  • Temusik Patriot:

    NOT unless U R A Shim N UR Hub wears PinkPaties

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  • NotMyProblem:

    Why only now people asking for transparency, accountability and whatever shit from the PAP?

    61% already given the PAP a blank cheques, you want to take it back?

    PAP is already fully making use of it. You are not to ask how they use it, with or without due diligence or contrarian!

    Just hope this 61% will be smarter the next time!! Pray.

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  • PAP mandate strong:

    Warren Buffet also invest wrongly into the airline stocks during early days of covid. He also missed S&P index where Apple gained 80%.

    FTX was once a Unicorn company.

    Even Softbank invest wrongly into Wework.
    Perhaps checkout the wework documentary or netflix wecrashed will shed some light.

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  • PAP mandate strong:

    I m also a contrarian on China.
    When expressed my opposing views or disagreement with China fans, always tio bashed.

    After reality of China white paper ptotests, tio bashed even more.

    唉!
    人性使然.
    感同身受.

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