Asean’s potential: What a load of BS

Our constructive, nation-building media says we got Asean to cushion us from China’s slow down.

Excuse me, China is Asean’s biggest export market. If China coughs, Asean gets a cold. If China slows down, Asean is down with the flu. If China really, really slows down to say 5%, Asean catches pneumonia.

Asean’s potential

Economists say Singapore needs to pivot more to Asean.

As a regional hub, the city-state can benefit from investors diversifying into Asean, but these gains will not manifest so soon.

CPTPP will come into effect on Dec 30 this year.

Mr Seah said there is too much focus on China in previous years.

Data from the Department of Statistics showed that the share of Singapore’s Nodx to China has increased from 1.1 per cent in 1990 to 18.2 per cent in 2017.

The share of Nodx to Singapore’s top three Asean trading partners — Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand — is comparable to China, but has shrunk from 20.3 per cent in 2003 to 17.5 per cent in 2017.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/look-ahead-2019-economy-headwinds-abound-economists-say-silver-lining-lies-asean

For the record: Singapore’s trade-reliant economy will see a slowdown in the next 12 months, according to a survey of economists by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. All 23 respondents cited intensifying trade friction as a risk to growth.

Economists … project that gross domestic product (GDP) growth could ease to 2.6% from an estimated 3.3% for 2018.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-economy-five-things-watch-2019-014107270.html

 

Cynical Investor

Cynical Investor blogs at Thoughts of a Cynical Investor

 

 

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8 Responses to “Asean’s potential: What a load of BS”

  • abuse of power:

    didn’t read the above post.

    but never let byte space go to waste.

    so we pen below our observation of CONTEMPT of court law in Kdramas.

    in every Kdrama, there is always the villain, normally the rich and politically connected, and the corrupt police, corrupt judges, and corrupt public prosecutors.

    but as in all things Kdrama, in the end, always, the villain is caught and put to jail. 100% of the time the success rate is 100%.

    we analyzed why the success rate at conviction is 100%. even Presidents and Prime Ministers, yes in Korea they have both, can be convicted. HOW come the rule of law is so kilat in Korea, as depicted in Kdramas.

    aha. the magic. in Korea, there is no protection for villains, that is, there is no CONTEMPT of court law to prevent the right folks to indict the villains.

    as Kramas depict real life in Korea, we say in all fairness NO contempt of court law is the right way forward. otherwise the politically powerful villain can abuse power to get the AGC to suka suka prosecute those who dare to ask the inconvenient questions.

    any society with CONTEMPT of court law to protect the politically powerful villain is doomed to fail. as we learn from Kdramas. we must educate 70% sheep why Korea is progressing. and Singapore is declining.

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  • Avoid Losing More Money:

    Sighs.

    From CI, yet more ‘lung-talk’(fei4hua4)

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  • Avoid Losing Money:

    Sighs.
    From CI, yet more ‘lung-talk’(faiwah; fei4hua4)

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  • 5 yr old even knows:

    saying such crap for donkey years….

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  • Bapoktua And 94 jesters:

    due to the nature of ASEAN , a unified ASEAN is not possible. Everyone is ASEAN is out to step on one another. Lee Kuan Yew drive th eparanois into the region by emphasising on western imperialism and free market competition BS. Singapore finds itself on the wrong end of the stick and wil be on the receiving end form these hostile selfish ASEAN nations .

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    CI’s amusement talk is legendary! Just like the sign on his article says, you know which end it is coming out from by the smell of it.
    ASEAN isn’t even a Common Economic Market on economic rules based on market consensus. It is a social gathering club – where ASEAN political figures eat & drink for old time sake & leave the bill to their respective tax payers to pay. Too many similar economic structures (all emerging markets & basic resource economies except for S’pore) & too many market divergent self-interest polices such as import-substitution rules, Anti-foreign ownership laws, nationalistic corporate shareholding requirements, etc. The most important reason, there’s neither a dominant manufacturing economy or a big consuming economy at it’s core.
    The fly in the ointment is S’pore. ASEAN nations were all wary of S’pore’s intention in ASEAN. We’re a parasitic economy tapping on the resource wealth & abundant agricultural riches of fellow ASEAN members. And S’pore had been a parasitic economy since the days of the British Empire. Nothing has changed since. S’pore has an arbitrage economy which undermines fellow ASEAN members economic output while capturing the immense Arbitrage profits by on-selling onto Western & developed economies. Fellow ASEAN members grew smarter & don’t want S’pore to dominate ASEAN for this reason.
    S’pore don’t have the consumption scale (despite the high GDP Wealth per capita vs median wage) to benefit uptake of fellow ASEAN member’s outputs. Despite paper value wealth, the reality is that majority of S’poreans are relatively impoverished. The Middle class in other ASEAN member countries (>6% GDP growth) are expanding & being able to afford landed housing, comfortable & affordable lifestyle & owning a car – something a young S’porean finds increasingly difficult to accomplish.
    Neither is there an advance manufacturing economy (eg. Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan or China) making use of ASEAN members’ resources to sell to the world & creating value adding in the global supply chain.
    That is the Brutal truth on why ASEAN had failed all those years & continue to fail going forward.

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  • rukidding:

    Finally, our dear Mr Cynical has “conceded” and “accepted the fact” that this RED DOT “days are numbered” !

    Time for regime change so that we can “reset” and “re-chart” our course!

    These overpaid “pigs” are beginning to become a “liability” to this place !

    Arrogance and abuses,…thats what they only know these days !

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  • Inside out, Top-side Down:

    Trouble is, from the top end.

    Rabble-rouser: CI’s amusement talk is legendary! Just like the sign on his article says, you know which end it is coming out from by the smell of it.

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