Where did the Wuhan travellers went before the lockdown?

A group of British researchers have generated a predictive global risk map for the likely spread of Covid-19 over the next 3 months based on data gathered from 60,000 of the estimated 5 million Wuhan residents who had left the virus city before it was completely locked down.

Click to enlarge

The researchers from Southampton University’s World Pop Project research group had used map location data from Chinese tech giant Baidu in combination with international flight itineraries to generate the map (above).

The paper, published on medRxiv, estimates that a total of over 59,912 passengers (including 834 infected individuals) left Wuhan by air to 382 cities around the world prior to the complete lockdown of Wuhan on January 23.

Where these travellers went and how high the risk of further spread of the virus within and beyond China remains an open question.

The researchers noted that a majority of the cities that people from Wuhan travelled to were mostly in Asia, though other destinations like the United States and Australia were prominent.

The majority of these cities were in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the US and Australia were also prominent, with strong correlation seen between predicted importation risks and reported cases seen.

Because significant spread has already occurred, a large number of airline travellers (3.3 million under the scenario of 75 per cent travel reduction from normal volumes) may be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April 2020 to effectively limit spread beyond its current extent.

According to the study, the top 10 destinations for traveller from Wuhan include Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korean, the United States, Malaysia, Singapore Vietnam and Australia.

And in the African continent specifically, the countries that topped the list include Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria and Kenya.

The researchers concluded that further spread of Covid-19 within China and international exportation is likely to occur.

All countries, especially vulnerable regions, should be prepared for efforts to contain the 2019-nCoV infection.

Ctrip.com and Trip.com, 2 major travel agencies in China have also estimated that about 7 million Chinese visitors have booked oversea holidays to about 500 destinations around the world, with the most popular countries in Asia, namely: Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. [ LINK ]

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* medRxiv had included a note to say that the paper is a pre-print and has yet to be peer-reviewed, adding that given that it includes new medical research that has yet to be evaluated, it should not be used to guide clinical practice.

 

 

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3 Responses to “Where did the Wuhan travellers went before the lockdown?”

  • Only 58 cases?:

    How many of the 60,000 that fled the city came to SG? Why the govt so silent on this figure? Singaporeans deserve to know what is the level of threat they face with this wave of arrivals from Wuhan? They fled before the lock-down by which time the virus was widespread and many of them could have been infected without showing any symptoms. HK probably have more of them because it is part of China and much nearer than SG.

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  • C’est la vie:

    ******
    According to Flight Master, as detailed in SCMP ……….
    ~
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047805/coronavirus-thousands-left-wuhan-hong-kong-bangkok-singapore-or
    ~
    ………. 10680 !!!

    And to date, there’s neither mention or update on this group of “travellers”, who have miraculously blended and bonded into the SG landscape !!!
    ***
    ******

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  • Actually there was an update from Wuhan. They said that about 5000 have yet to return while most of those who left went to neighboring cities, especially Henan.

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