Contact tracing is an ineffective and wasteful activity

Contact tracing is implemented under Dorscon Orange. I find it to be an ineffective and wasteful activity.

Let me explain why.

Mr X took the bus and changed to the MRT train to go to have lunch with his friend in a shopping mall.

He visited his club in the afternoon and was found to have a fever. He went to a clinic and was sent to hospital. He was found to have the covid-19 virus.

Who are the people that he might have infected? They are quite likely to be the people sitting next to him in the bus and the train and also his friend and the servers in the restaurant.

These people are not captured in the contact tracing.

Mr. X might have gone around for a few days with the virus in his body and no symptoms. How many people who have been infected by him in the public transport and places that he had visited. We do not know. They are not captured by the contract tracing.

Meanwhile, we are collecting contact tracing information at workplaces, clubs and many other places. If he had visited some of these places, does it mean that all the people who have left their contact information during that day or over a longer period had to be contacted and traced?

Even if some of the contacts had been traced, what happens? They will be asked to be quarantined at home for 14 days. Many of these people cannot afford to be without an income for such a long time. Even if they are on paid leave, their employer will be unhappy and may not be able to afford the loss of productivity.

More importantly, is the home quarantine really necessary? How about the countless people that might have been in contact with the infected persons that are moving around the community? Are we “punishing” just a few who happened to be unfortunately to be caught in a questionable process?

I am in favor of taking the necessary measures to stop the spread of the virus. I will write on these measures separately.

But my common sense tells me that contact screening is an ineffective and wasteful activity and should be stopped. Let us put our resources to more effective measures. Let us think through the problem carefully.

 

Tan Kin Lian

 

 

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18 Responses to “Contact tracing is an ineffective and wasteful activity”

  • oxygen:

    CORONAVIRUS IS A LIVING INFECTION SPREAD, if you can’t optimise its containment as this is the case, you must still satisfice.

    This article is naive.

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  • UniQ:

    WAH LAU !!!

    WHY SO MUCH GAS ?!?!?!

    WEAR MASKS ! FASTER FASTER !!

    As for those that planned and carried out relentlessly the contact tracing and at the front line, I solute, Appreciate and Thank you for the effort and I felt that the High Tax $$ that I paid annually is in actions.

    Thank you.

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  • Bapak:

    But WHO very impressed leh. Have they contacted all the customers who visited the China girl in Geylang?

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  • Sia:

    @TKL

    Luckily you are not president of SG, coz there’r gaps & fallacies in your thinking…

    If quarantine & contact tracing are wasteful, ineffective & unnecessary, the no. of inflection cases in SG wld have become like SKorea or Japan…

    Your common sense is flawed…

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  • SlapTKL face:

    Contact Tracing is a universal and essential tool. It is universal, which means TKL is a single soul against the whole world.

    Just that the tool become ineffective in Singaland, especially when the hands are tied not to shake the economy and it become a tool for whitewashing the sheep and for show only.

    There was a fake self-praising article saying someone sworn that we left no stone un-turned when apparently mass transits stone cannot be turned. Other than the fake article, there was another article by TKL that advocate people not to wear mask. Isn’t the example given by him slapping his own face?

    Other than Contact Tracing Tool, they have the very frightening shutdown tool call the POFMA tool and the machine gun tool.

    But the best tool for the public is the voting tool comes the GE. Please use it absolutely correct this time around.

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  • Case 88:

    Example case 88: Why contact tracing failed to identified her “earlier” under the male church employee contact tracing and put her under Quarantine in the first place?

    Case 88: Linked to Grace Assembly of God
    Case 88 is a 30-year-old female Singapore citizen who has no recent travel history to China. She is currently warded in an isolation room at NCID. She is linked to an earlier 28-year-old male patient who is an employee at Grace Assembly of God.

    She reported onset of symptoms on 16 February and had sought treatment at a general practitioner (GP) clinic on Monday. As she had been identified as a contact of the male patient, she was referred by MOH to NCID on Friday. Subsequent test results confirmed COVID-19 infection on Friday afternoon.

    Prior to hospital admission, she had mostly stayed at her home at Hougang Street 91.

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  • REGIME CHANGE is the solution:

    TKL makes sense. But politicians like those who blundered by not stockpiling enough masks need to cover up their mistake by appearing to do something useful. This is classic “spin”.

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  • nizhemoshou:

    Sia:
    @TKL

    Luckily you are not president of SG, coz there’r gaps & fallacies in your thinking…

    If quarantine & contact tracing are wasteful, ineffective & unnecessary, the no. of inflection cases in SG wld have become like SKorea or Japan…

    Your common sense is flawed…

    dont think Japan n Korea spikes in cases were bcos they didnt do quarantine and contact tracing. It was bcos their countries big which make it hard for them to trace the contacts fast enough. Eg it is hardly unlikely the infected prc visitors to their countries would not have gone to more than one part of the country.. That is why I sort of expected the spikes to happen as I read sometime ago one of Japan ‘s first cases , an infected PRC visitor had travelled to several places in the country before he fell sick n see doctor.

    Tkl is silly to suggest to do away contact tracing for SG just bcos it cant trace all who needed to be traced. Then what about those who can be traced ? The reason this measure is necessary is bcos the ones who can be traced are also usually the ones who are most exposed to him n so likely to be infected than not by him eg his office colleagues, relatives, neighbors he talked to, the Dr/staff of the clinics he visited , hawker stalls/shops he patronised etc.

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  • nizhemoshou:

    Sia:
    @TKL

    Luckily you are not president of SG, coz there’r gaps & fallacies in your thinking…

    If quarantine & contact tracing are wasteful, ineffective & unnecessary, the no. of inflection cases in SG wld have become like SKorea or Japan…

    Your common sense is flawed…

    dont think Japan n Korea spikes in cases were bcos they didnt do quarantine and contact tracing. It was bcos their countries big which make it hard for them to trace the contacts fast enough. Eg it is hardly unlikely the infected prc visitors to their countries would not have gone to more than one part of the country.. That is why I sort of expected the spikes to happen as I read sometime ago one of Japan ‘s first cases , an infected PRC visitor had travelled to several places in the country before he fell sick n see doctor.

    Tkl is silly to suggest to do away contact tracing for SG just bcos it cant trace all who needed to be traced. Then what about those who can be traced ? The reason this measure is necessary is bcos the ones who can be traced are also usually the ones who are most exposed to him n so likely to be infected than not by him eg his office colleagues, relatives, neighbors he talked to, the Dr/staff of the clinics he visited , hawker stalls/shops he patronised etc.

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  • Steven:

    TKL thinks he is the great All-Seeong and the great Know-All.

    Even if given the scenario where contact tracing is limited, at least it has shown that the authorities managed to close the gap in some clusters.

    And if no contact tracing is done and the numbers explode, I am pretty sure ppl like TKL will be first to condemn the authorities for failing to contact trace.

    TKL is really living in a world of his own where he thinks that everything that comes out from his mouth are pearls of wisdom.

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  • Early warning necessary:

    When cities have to lock down, when maximum alert level is raised in South Korea, airlines around the world have to cut thousands of flights.
    A small matter??
    Our government’s issuing of the DORSCON level warning is timely and case tracing is necessary at least we know when to take precautions and where to avoid.
    Look at the cases linked to Grace Assembly of God – 23 cases.
    If the alert is not issued, the layman won’t be able understand the seriousness of the virus and many would not take precautions.
    Because of the hyper contagious nature of the virus, if the alert is raised weeks later when hundreds of people are already infected, our losses will be even heavier.
    Shopping malls, food courts, the streets…all will be empty.

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  • Harder Truths:

    Contact tracing is only useful under certain conditions. If the infected areas are containable, if the virus spreads from human-to-human and not airborne, if it is not able to travel ta high speeds, if it is able to be identified in its incubation period, if there are no masking symptoms, if there are enough test kits and medical facilities to serve the population – then yes, it could be useful.

    None of these relates to the CoV-19 which is a bio-engineered organism most likely designed to kill quickly and without being detected.

    In such cases any country needs a biohazard plan proportionate to the threat. $G is thirty times as densely populated as Wuhan with a rapid transmission system where people are within infected areas for a long time.

    $G has no biohazard plan – no means to combat the virus and no means to help the population in case the virus really got out of control. This is the Real Truth.

    In case of high fatalities the most likely scenario would be to burn the bodies and get FT replacements as soon as possible. After all, $G locals are expendable and not meant to be saved – too costly.

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  • Trublu:

    As has been said countless times,just make sure sgs are protected.
    Prevention is the best way.
    Why expose sgs to health hazards ALL THE TIME from joblessness to SICKNESSES?

    SEND RETURNEES COMING FROM PRC TO SENTOSA COVE AS A COSY ENVIEONMENT WILL HELP THE QUARATINED TO RELAX N AT THE SAME TIME REDUCE RISK OF CONTAGION.

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  • Good but not enough:

    Contact tracing is partially effective but not enough.

    Because COVID-19 is not SARS. Unlike SARS, this time, by the time you have a confirmed case, he/she already spread to others. This means that contact tracing is playing catch-up. It is always one or more steps too late.

    That’s why COVID-19 is spreading in Singapore. The “follower-leaders” mislearn from SARS and cannot effectively contain the virus.

    The effective measure is to break off group contacts, as what China is doing. If churches had been asked to stop their gatherings, some big clusters would have been avoided in the first place.

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  • pap chan chun sing sia suay:

    we did not vote tan kin lian during PE.

    we knew then and we confirm now tan kin lian is not smart to be anything at all.

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  • Who handpicked Mickey Chan?:

    Kin Lian,

    You Kenna before?
    My ex company, a Huge Japanese MNC,
    had a FT coughing blood. He was diagnosed TB.

    Contact Tracing is a Internationally practised method. Kin Lian is UNQUALIFIED medically to give a credible opinion though he is entitled to spew opinion.

    Our entire huge IT department went through TB mandatory Mantoux test several singaporeans I know found infected with Asymptomatic or Latent TB. In layman term, TB inside the body but yet erupted.

    The colleagues have been working in the same aircon office for years and years. And that guy frequently cough.

    It made we wonder how many singaporeans already carrying TB.

    But even Paul Tambyah does not know the answer cos there is no national level screening despite the population explosion and density

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  • Who handpicked Mickey Chan?:

    To Add,
    Kin Lian , there is a chance you already have TB in your body.

    Why not go to CDC (black lion) ask for a cheap or possibly free mantoux test to see if you have it? A small drop of something is injected under your forearm skin, not foreskin. Wait 48hours if a small mosquito bite like bump appears size larger than a certain size, it indicates your status.

    Go thru this and it’s painless. Then you write this article again will increase your credibility.

    Don’t be like Kee Chew. One finger in your backside, 4 fingers pointing to others backside.

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  • Then Mr Tan KL prefer ....:

    https://m.douban.com/group/topic/165779795/
    美联社报道:莫斯科进行扫荡,搜索中国人。公交车司机被告知如果看到中国乘客立刻举报,地铁工作人员拦截看起来像是中国人的乘客。

    Who say Russia and China brothers ?

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