Herd immunity among the foreign workers?

We may already have achieved herd immunity among the foreign workers. What does this mean?

During the past three weeks, over 20,000 foreign workers living in dormitories have been tested for the corona virus. I estimated that about 50% (i.e. 10,000 workers) are found to be positive in the test. They have the corona virus.

What about the other 10,000 workers? Surely, when all the foreign workers are living together in the congested rooms and half has been infected, surely the other half must also be infected?

I believe that the other half have already been infected and are now immune from the virus.

Why is this the case?

I was told that the test being carried out is the PCR test. It looks for the virus that are still active in the subject and returns a positive result.

There is another test that looks for the antibody that is found in people that were infected before, and do not have the active virus now. These people are considered to be immune. This is the antibody or serology test.

If the antibody test is done on the foreign workers that are negative on the PCR test, it is likely (in my opinion) that they will be found to have the antibody. They have already been infected before and are now immune.

I suggest that the ministerial task force carry out the antibody test on a sample of the foreign workers who are negative on the PCR test.

The foreign workers that now have the virus are being isolated for 2 to 4 weeks. At the end of this period, they will be tested to be negative and can be released from isolation and return back to work, as they have achieved immunity.

Most of the 10,000 foreign workers who were found to be positive have a mild infection. They are kept in isolation facilities. Only a proportion need to be hospitalized. Only 2 workers need ICU. I wish them a safe recovery.

By mid May, we may be able to declare that all the foreign workers have been infected and the virus has been contained. They would have achieve herd immunity.

I expect that this will be considered as a positive outcome for Singapore. it could be a case study on herd immunity. I may be wrong, but I hope that I am right.

 

Tan Kin Lian

 

 

 

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10 Responses to “Herd immunity among the foreign workers?”

  • trublu:

    HERD IMMUNITY?
    GO ASK BORIS JOHNSON,he initially said so too?

    TKL,dont be a sucker.
    You were once a CEO.
    i expect more decent thinking n responsible remarks from you.

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  • Maybe:

    Maybe I am wrong but hopefully I am right to guess that someone might be thinking that he had already developed some form of “herd immunity” alone but was not too sure lest he would called up and subjected to some clinical experiments on his body ….. or brain. Still wondering why world scientists have not conducted studies on our FWs on “herd immunity’.

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  • Sg is doomed with 4Gs:

    Before, FW were treated as sub humans living in squalid cramped accommodation served with scrawny meals.

    Now, gahmmen are really very nice, putting them on the star cruises.

    Wow, I just don’t know what to say!

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  • Thanks bro, so well said:

    trublu:
    HERD IMMUNITY?
    GO ASK BORIS JOHNSON,he initially said so too?

    TKL,dont be a sucker.
    You were once a CEO.
    i expect more decent thinking n responsible remarks from you.

    GD Star Rating
    loading...
  • Thanks bro, so well said:

    Maybe:
    Maybe I am wrong but hopefully I am right to guess that someone might be thinking that he had already developed some form of “herd immunity” alone but was not too sure lest he would called up and subjected to some clinical experiments on his body ….. or brain. Still wondering why world scientists have not conducted studies on our FWs on “herd immunity’.

    GD Star Rating
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  • Actual situation:

    Good to know the actual infected situation at the FW Dormitories ?
    Herd immunity ?
    Hope the situation there will be under control soon…
    This virus has taken a toll on many,especially those that on no pay leave or lost their job since Jan 2020.

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  • hopelessnuselesspap:

    reason he, tkl, SCREWED sinkies,

    upside down, inside out,

    with ntuc income….

    the ” FAILED” CEO i would say.

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  • Hm… Why Mr Tan like to day dream huh?

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  • mike:

    Whether Mr TKL make sense with his suggestions or not is one thing.

    The fact that PCR test ALONE is not sufficient and a few things we need to consider if SG wishes to get a more reliable picture:

    1. Anti-body tests, both IgG and/or IgM anti-bodies
    2. Cost of testing
    3. If cost of testing is a concern, then if not all, what should be the % of population be tested

    Simple maths tells us:

    If a test cost $50
    200k will cost $10M
    3M population, at approx 50% will cost $150M

    If a PCR + Anti-body test cost $150
    200k will cost $30M
    3M population will cost $450M

    This is pricely? Perhaps SG should join the Avenger group to submit claim to CN too.

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  • @ trublu:

    @ HERD IMMUNITY?
    GO ASK BORIS JOHNSON,he initially said so too?

    ——

    Herd immunity possible. Only thing is can do but cannot say or announce publicly.
    Boris was too straightforward. Lesson learnt so now he say the opposite.

    Just like my neighbor , his car from his wife’s monies but he tell everybody his own hard effort. His relative i also know told me the hard truth so out of social reasons or face reasons we keep mum.

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