PAP Government will not fall

It is surprising that the possibility of the PAP losing power is still being raised as a factor in this election. I can assure you (and willing to bet a million to one odds) that the PAP will still form the government after the polling day on Jul 10.

It is not a reckless statement or impulsive bet. It is justified and backed by facts from history, theory and practice.

Our first-pass-the-post electoral system (FPTP) only elects the winner who needs to garner only 50% plus one votes. So theoretically, for a party which forms a government with a simple majority of Parliament only need to win 51% of the seats with 50% of the votes of each constituency. This means that party only needs 25% (51 x 50) of the votes to form a government!

The big disadvantage for voters under the FPTP system is that the other more than 49% voters, in this example, who voted against (opposition vote) are ignored.

The FPTP system favours the larger parties who have strong ground operations to garner support from the local residents. And they only need to be entrenched in 51% of the seats or constituencies and they can form the government again and again. Our PAP government is a super-entrenched government with its 60 years of rule and good track record in the early years of nationhood.

Actually they do not need to do the gerrymandering and unfair practices and they will still easily get an absolute majority.

This theoretical advantage is further cemented by our Group Representation System (GRC) where the PAP only needs to win in 9 GRCs and 2 SMCs (total 47 seats) to form the next government and not having to compete in all the 47 constituencies separately.

If theory is not enough to convince you, look at history. In the 1963 GE, the PAP won 73% of the seats with 47% of the vote share. Hence there is no proportional relationship between the number of seats and the vote share. And since 1968, there has been a consistently 30% to 40% of opposition vote, but the opposition share of the seats is at best 7%.

As a result, there is absolutely no doubt that the PAP will form the next government again. This should not be an issue at all.

In raising this fear factor together with the Non-Constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP) Scheme is an attempt to confuse the voters and distract them from casting the vote for the alternative camp.

Please do not lose sight of our objective – 32 seats for the alternative front in the new Parliament. There can only be an effective voice if the alternative parties enter Parliament as full MPs or Constituency Member of Parliament (CMP).

Democracy in Singapore will have a sad day if all the alternative parties are wiped out in this election with no alternative CMP in Parliament.

You deserve better, don’t shortchange yourself.

#psp
#progresswithcompassion
#youdeservebetter

Leong Mun Wai
Assistant Secretary-General
Progress Singapore Party

 

* Mr Leong is on Facebook.

 

 

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9 Responses to “PAP Government will not fall”

  • opposition dude:

    PAP can thank both the kiasees and new citizens for its continued hold on power. If it wasn’t for these 2 groups we could well have a coalition government by now.

    So the kiasees prefer a single party to form the government. No coalition for them oh no no no since they will always cite how Pakatan Harapan went kaput. Single party given all the power will abuse it and then these same kiasees will kpkb the for the rest of the election cycle.

    I guess we will only see significant change when this bunch of kiasees become the minority in 20 years time. In the meantime it’s baby steps for now. We have 6 opposition MPs in parliament so if this number is to be increased after Friday it will be interesting to see by how much.

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  • trublu:

    I have been saying if OPPO FORMS ALLIANCE,WINNING 1/3 of all 93 seats is ayam.

    AJ is at stake,like it or not.

    WP fails to take lead to unite oppo.
    Pritam even sat on POFMA COMMITEE BUT WP didnt bother to attend or respond to OPPO ALLIANCE MEETING when invited?

    To me,WP is parochial in its approach.
    Even when interviewed,Jamus lim complimented VB as a good FOREIGN MINISTER?
    I wonder how is VB a good FM?

    DT Chee does not mince his words.He actually sternly reminded VB of their school’s moral teachings about caring for the weak among us?

    Jamus has WP’s DNA n PAP like it.

    I am a supporter of oppo sgs n i supported WP at rallies n voted for them but i am abstaining this time.
    For me,i rather not be a hypocrite.

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  • trublu:

    If the OPPO SIDE were to send A *COMBINED A TEAM* to AMK,i wont be surprised PAP could be kicked out!

    Look at AMK,the slate of PAPple there is mediocre, to say the least.

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  • Results vs ground sentiment:

    The unexplained is why
    Every GE the results is opposite to the ground sentiment.

    And Singaporeans keep imagining an excuse for it.

    I think WP may either left with one SMC or wiped out.

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  • @Results vs ground sentiment

    I am in agreement with you. Sinkies like to cry father cry mother a lot but when given chicken wings and abalone, they diam diam vote for the party, content to live on breadcrumbs after every GE.

    This time around, with $23k in CASH (tic), it is highly possible that it will be 93-0, a total wipeout of the oppose parties.

    IMHO, going by logic and sentiments, I would have guessed the party may lose 4 GRCs and 2 to 3 SMCs, BUT knowing Sinkies, I would put the best scenario at 1 SMC.

    WP is at a very high risk of losing Aljunied due to their pathetic performance in Parliament, even to a C Team from the incumbent party. So those who think Aljunied GRC is a walk in the park for WP may be in for a shock. I am however, quite optimistic that Hougang SMC would be a sure take for WP though.

    For the incumbent party. their biggest threat would be East and West Coast GRC against PSP and WP. Another danger zone may be where the sexpert is, depending on how sick and tired the people are with her arrogance and don’t give a shit attitude.

    If I really have to place a bet, I would go for 92-1 (worst case) or 82-11 (best case) and 78-15 (strike 4D) or 74-19 (Sinkies sibei tulan liao). Anything above that needs a miracle.

    What do you think?

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  • Spoil vote is not neutral:

    When the expectation is 80% PAP and 20% alternative party, any spoil vote supports that: 80% of it for PAP and 20% for alternative party.

    A spoil vote is not neutral. It is not 50% for PAP and 50% for the alternative party.

    Please vote wisely. A spoil vote is a vote for PAP.

    Anyone who choose to abstain from voting is giving up his/her precious right to vote. You know how many people died globally fighting for the right to vote? Every vote is precious.

    For someone like trublu who criticises PAP so much, abstaining means you support PAP to continue with more of what you are criticising. Think. Think. Think.

    trublu: I am a supporter of oppo sgs n i supported WP at rallies n voted for them but i am abstaining this time.

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  • NotMyProblem:

    PAP cannot fall with so many new citizens votes.

    Even with all true blue Singaporeans vote for the Oppositions, PAP still has enough vote from new citizens to stay in power.

    So don’t worry, PAP is not the least worry. 11/7/2020 morning will still be gloomy.

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  • Vote wisely:

    Vote wisely.
    May the best team for each Ward Win…
    Better to vote some Opposition leaders in SMC in…Good for Singapore.
    Not sure about PAP lite…nothing to show after so many years…

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  • George:

    Tin Pei Ling and Tan Chuan Jin are part of a political party that must fall, Singaporeans must vote them out !

    VOTE PAP OUT ! !

    VOTE FOR CHANGE, VOTE OPPOSITION ! ! !

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