Risk management – close the border

In risk management, we have to consider the cost of risk of the various options.

For example, we can close the borders to stop infected people from coming into Singapore and spreading the virus.

However, this option will harm the tourism trade and the livelihoods of many people and businesses in the trade. It will also cause damage to the rest of the economy.

A risk management approach tries to quantify the cost of risk of the various options.

I set out below, an example of the risk management calculation. The figures that I used are based on my estimate and judgement. More importantly, I have used them to demonstrate the process. Do not rely too much on these figures.

It is possible for other people to use other figures and get a different result.

My figures are better than the judgment made by many people – who think only of one side of the issue. They are worried about the spread of the virus and the possible health risk. But they do not try to quantify the cost of this risk.

They also totally ignore the cost of the harm to the economy from the border closure.

 

Tan Kin Lian

 

 

 

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6 Responses to “Risk management – close the border”

  • uselesstankl:

    many of us are familiar with the term “free riders.” PM Lee mentioned that economists use it – in that context, free riders are people who benefit from something without expending effort or paying for it.

    XXXXX

    The BIGGEST FREE RIDERS HERE ARE IN ;

    PAP GOV…..

    best examples are , gct, mAh, lim as, lim bheng,

    And latest to join the Q,

    CCS, JOTEO, EDWIN TONG, CHARLES CHONG, ETC ETC

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  • uselesstankl:

    Adding in tkl.

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  • Suckersl:

    Typical problem solving skills of the “educated class”( they think like solving a math problem) generally without conscience and full of political wrangling or shenanigan.

    Basically, the leadership of booksmart people, far from being wise, are choosing the best out of your “death sentences”.

    Sheep are easily misled, by “classroom answers”, will not be able to discern the sting of death in Sin.

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  • PAP CLOSE DOWN:

    Covid 19 = Closed leg policy?

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  • Are You Sure ?:

    What imagine if you get the disease and die, would you still fight to open the border and improve the economy ?

    Economy can get better sooner or later, but life once is gone is gone. Don’t take the easy way out.

    Just like Pinky, he scolded the voters and called them free riders for voting for the Opposition when they actually wanted the PAP to rule.

    The PAP lost 9% more of the votes and I think it is a big loss. He is actually mistaken and blamed the voters. He did not know that the voters this time round wanted the Opposition to win and take over the government from the PAP because many people on the ground are actually jobless and really fed up because of the CECA Indian problem.

    He still think he is very popular with the voters. Lucky for him he wins by a nose . Next GE will be different unless he tackles the CECA Indian problem now.

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  • With hindsight do much better?:

    Well, let’s be realistic and factual Mr. Tan. Now what are the infection statistics of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau? What were their economic rationales (w/o benefits of hindsight) in tackling potential mass hazards in their countries? They’re also jam-packed cities you know – perhaps with much less bravado and presumptuous arrogance in their leadership?

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