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Covid-19 vaccines can prevent infection and severe illness?

The ST headline boldly reads, “Study of 29,000 people quarantined in Singapore shows Covid-19 vaccines can prevent infection and severe illness”.

However, the report does not tally with what is happening on the ground.

I have been tabulating the daily cases of infection as published on MOH’s website since 1 May 2021, breaking down each case into age, sex, unvaccinated and vaccinated. With the data, I have calculated the infection or attack rates of the virus in the unvaccinated and vaccinated populations of Singapore, and thereby the efficacy of the vaccine.

The average efficacy has been zero to negative.

The efficacy of a vaccine is calculated by comparing the infection rates in the unvaccinated and vaccinated populations. If the infection in the former is 10% while the latter is free from infection, then the vaccine is 100% effective. Conversely, if the infection rate is 10% in both populations, then there is no difference whether one is vaccinated or not, ie, the efficacy of the vaccine is zero. If the infection rate is 10% in the unvaccinated population and 5% in the vaccinated, then the efficacy is 50%.

It is common to confuse infection rate with efficacy. The former depends on the transmissibility of the virus, the number of community cases, effective implementation of preventive measures like safe distancing, mask wearing, early contact tracing and isolation as well as vaccination. Currently, the infection rate in Malaysia is much higher than in Singapore due to higher community cases and perhaps less effective implementation of preventive measures. So, even if the vaccine used and vaccination rate were the same in both countries, the infection rate can be different. However, the efficacy of the vaccine should be the same. Although the infection rate may be higher in Malaysia, it rises proportionately in both the unvaccinated and vaccinated populations, so that the ratio, which essentially is the efficacy rate, remains the same.

It is important to note that efficacy cannot be taken in isolation. There have been 222 breakthrough cases, which are infections despite vaccination, between 1st May 2021 and 18 June 2021. It is a grave mistake to dismiss these as the unlucky 5% given that the efficacy is 95% as claimed by Pfizer. One has to ask, 222 infections compared to what? Ideally, a similarly profiled population which is not vaccinated. Without comparison, one is just taking for granted that the vaccine is effective. That is why politicians and experts who say that the higher the vaccination rate, the lower will be the infections are assuming that the vaccine is effective; they should check that the vaccine is indeed effective in real life before making such statements. If the vaccines are 0% effective, vaccination will not help.

Dr Gabriel Oon, retired oncologist who is a pioneer in liver cancer research here and who played a key role in Singapore’s hepatitis B vaccination program, said recently that Pfizer is useless against the new variants. His observation has been borne out by real life data supplied by MOH. In total, there have been 751 infections between 1 May 2020 and 18 June 2021, which is way more than the 150 or so in the Pfizer trial. The efficacy rate has become more consistent with more data from each passing day, which has been stuck at zero to negative.

The ST article says a local study of 29,000 people who are quarantined shows that effectiveness of the vaccine is 79.1%. However, real life data points to zero to negative. I invite everyone who is reading this post to send me a note on Messenger for an Excel copy of my data and calculations to verify. If indeed the efficacy of the vaccine is zero to negative, we should stop it immediately.

 

Foong Swee Fong

 

 

yyy
READER COMMENTS BELOW

18 Responses to “Covid-19 vaccines can prevent infection and severe illness?”

  • xoxo:

    Ya,Ong You Con shud receive more booster jabs and prove how good the vaccines trulu are.
    But he is sounding more and more stupid leh.
    Maybe he oredy kena dementia?
    Unfit for duty.
    Better he tries to switch career to selling KOYOK AND SNAKE OIL?
    He could be a billionaire like Ron Sim of Osim who started by peddling kitchen wares?

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  • oxygen:

    VIRTUALLY ALL THE 29,000 QUARANTINED in SGP might have some natural antibody response to initial (suspected) infection – just like those sleeper asymptomatic cases. Or they might NOT been exposed to the Covid infection at all.

    ST’s bold headline read is just its EXCITED EXAGGERATION of spin erroneous conclusion.

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  • oxygen:

    IF THE VACCINES ARE EFFECTIVE as claimed by ST Headline read – how do ST explains the over 500,000 fatalities cases in Brazil where AZ and Sinovac dominated over 90% of the vaccination roll out?

    And in Chile, Sinovac, Pfizer and Moderna accounted for nearly 100% of the vaccinated population and now Santiago is in complete lockdown due to rampant pandemic spread – how to explain this?

    AZ is jettisoned of its use for the second jab in Down Under and Canada of changed clinical advice given to the respective governments by its health regulatory authority. Please explain this roll-back after such dramatised on TV and media of the confident roll-out earlier?

    And Boris Johnson delayed the lifting of lockdown as Covid Delta kicked off another rampant virus surge in the UK – its govt still silent on the OZ and Canadian roll-back of AZ usuage for the second jab> Why? Why? Why?

    Are the Covid vaccines made of different raw material input as those in EU, USA, Brazil, and Chile???

    THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCES CONTRADICTED ST headline read!

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  • MarBowling:

    So far SOOOO MUCH have been reported and studies of claims by Pharmaceutical companies especially Pfizer and Moderna about EFFICACY and EFFECTIVENESS But NONE on the SAFETY and LOONG TERM EFFECT(1 year, 2, 3, 5 YEARS DOWN THE LOONG AND WINDING ROAD?)OF THEIR VACCINES, period.

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  • Billy ma:

    A few things that we know thus far.

    1. You can get infected even with complete vacinnation regiment.
    2. You can get infected even with 2 doses plus when you wear your face mask.

    So what does it tell us about the vaccine & face mask?
    Don’t know.

    What I’m very keen to know is the conditions of those who were fully vaccinated & whether are they suffering from severe sickness due to the virus.

    No point telling me the manufacturers said or even what so called experts are telling to drum into us.
    For a start, a fruit seller will never tell customers their fruit are not good.
    And the experts (some don’t even sound like ibe), have their own agenda.

    Just tell me if I’ll get very ill if infected even though my body got the vaccine.

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  • opposition dude:

    Have you noticed the story has changed from “Vaccination prevents infection” back then to “Vaccination REDUCES infection” today? Smart right?

    Having data is good but your eyes do not deceive you when it was reported that TTSH has around half of vaccinated people being infected. It was also reported that as of end May most infected people were infected with the 1617 Indian variant. It seems to reinforce Foong Swee Yong’s analysis that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are ineffective against the 1617 variant.

    Or rather, look at it this way. We have double digit infections on most days. I believe the government reported that around 30% of the population has had at least ONE jab which translates to around 1.7 million people after the latest population figure of 5.69 million was reported. If the vaccines were supposedly working as well as they should then theoretically only those who are unvaccinated should kena.

    But the thing is we have had reports of those who are fully vaccinated succumb to the virus too. What we do not know is how much damage has been done to these people and how fast they have recovered from the virus.

    So there are quite a few questions to be answered but not surprisingly, no answers as usual.

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  • Unknown:

    Too much unknown at this stage..
    No need to rush…Take time to do a proper study.
    Better safe than sorry.

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  • Michael:

    Cannot stop.. Why?

    If stop, government loses face.
    Face more important than life..
    Pap face must be preserved at all cost.
    That means even if it does not work, must
    Pretend it can work.

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  • Singapore only 34 deaths:

    Why hurry to get jabbed?

    Wait for more traditional method vaccines with US Novovaxx and Covaxx coming soon.If you dont like China vaccines (which I am confident of).

    Tech: It is stue, that Sinovac is a safer option because it uses an unactivated method which has been massively tested for years, as opposed to those synthetic DNA ones made by Pfizer, Modena, etc.

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  • Sang:

    MTF.consit of 11 minister.

    Only task is respond to Corona virus.

    Not control.

    Not prevent.

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  • Sang:

    MTF.term of reference can be down loaded.from internet.

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  • mike:

    I totally agree with you!
    Get all the MPs, Ministars, PM, Presseedent and their whole kampung familee members jabbed with N-th number of boosters!
    Jabbed like having vitamins! Or indeed those are just vitamins with labels switched? No one knows in this world how dirty things can get.

    Heard many people ‘like’ OYK, even my WP supporter sister also like him…
    I tell my sister, no one should like any politicians until they died and history judged them.

    xoxo:
    Ya,Ong You Con shud receive more booster jabs and prove how good the vaccines trulu are.

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  • mike:

    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/study-of-29000-people-on-quarantine-in-spore-shows-vaccines-can-prevent-infection-and

    ST: Study of 29,000 people quarantined in S’pore shows Covid-19 vaccines can prevent infection and severe illness

    Let’s crunch some numbers reported by ST pet puppy:

    Quote
    “We are 79 per cent, so not very far off,” added Mr Ong

    >>>
    Is this about scoring mid-term exam? And can such numbers be compared? The base the conditions and sample variables are wide. Simply disgusting.

    Quote
    Mr Ong noted that of the 629 local cases reported since April 11 who had not been fully vaccinated, 54 of them or about 8.6 per cent developed serious illness, needing oxygen supplementation or admission into intensive care units (ICU).

    >>>
    In this statement, the keyword is ‘not been fully vacinated’. Not ‘not vaccinated’. Developed serious illness, what types? Caused by covid or caused by vaccines blood clot? No raw data release?

    Quote
    As for those fully vaccinated, there are altogether 158 persons who have been infected, two of them (1.3 per cent) required oxygen supplementation and none had ever been in the ICU.

    >>>
    1) the base is extremely small to justify a situation.
    2) If this is true, as of 14 Jun 2021, the released reported number of fully vaccinated is 1.99M (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-fully-vaccinated-covid?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&region=World&country=~SGP) if we execute 1.3% to 1.99M it would be 25,190 of potential patients fully vaccinated and requires oxygen supplementation! So is that truth? If it is not, the data reported for 2 out of 158 is plain nonsense with 1.3% as irresponsible building stories around numbers.
    3) what are the age group and profession of these 158 cases?

    Quote
    “If we exclude all the patients and residents of TTSH and MINDSville (who were infected with Covid-19), altogether there are 120 fully vaccinated individuals who were infected, all of them either had no symptoms or mild symptoms,” said Mr Ong.

    >>>
    Again, can we interpret from this that the vaccines helped to spread the virus quietly to achieve herd immunity ‘quicker’ without much alert?

    Data don’t tell lies, we do.

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  • Kenny:

    The safest place now after one year is the workers dorm.so strange.

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  • Kenny:

    MP of consitucy also becomes task force assistant.cannot see actual task force staff.

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  • key & key:

    The key question is how many already in hospital / icu before they got covid. That could change the stats a lot. Gov seem to be purposely ignoring this.

    mike: Quote
    Mr Ong noted that of the 629 local cases reported since April 11 who had not been fully vaccinated, 54 of them or about 8.6 per cent developed serious illness, needing oxygen supplementation or admission into intensive care units (ICU).

    >>>
    In this statement, the keyword is ‘not been fully vacinated’. Not ‘not vaccinated’. Developed serious illness, what types? Caused by covid or caused by vaccines blood clot? No raw data release?

    Quote
    As for those fully vaccinated, there are altogether 158 persons who have been infected, two of them (1.3 per cent) required oxygen supplementation and none had ever been in the ICU.

    >>>

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  • MarBowling:

    Kenny:
    June 22, 2021 at 8:28 am (Quote)
    The safest place now after one year is the workers dorm.so strange.

    Response: Hi Kenny, you shouldn’t have let this STRANGE LOBANG OUT! After coming to know of this GREAT LOBANG, A lot of Kiasi and Kiasu SinKaporean will make a beeline for the workers dormitories located all over the shop! Am sure ALL those workers especially the Ah Nehs and PRC folks who are CURRENTLY housed in those Mother of all SAFETY NETS at their dormitories WILL NOT BE TOO HAPPY with all those INTRUDERS!

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  • AZ kills:

    AZ is banned in many western countries. However, AZ is very KINDLY donated to Taiwan. Many Taiwanese have died from AZ. Can their relatives demand compensation from the donor countries?

    TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Central Epidemic command center on Monday (June 21) announced that it is investigating reports of 58 deaths after elderly individuals were inoculated with a dose of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine over the past three days, though still no deaths have been directly attributed to coronavirus vaccines in Taiwan.

    Taiwan on June 15 began to administer AstraZeneca vaccines donated by Japan on a large scale, particularly for people over the age of 75. However, in the first four days, there were more than two dozen cases of elderly vaccine recipients suddenly dying after receiving their first dose of the vaccine.

    The trend in deaths following vaccinations appeared to continue over the weekend. During a press conference on Monday (June 21), CECC Spokesman Chuang Jen-hsiang (莊人祥) announced that 58 people died after receiving a dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine between Friday and Sunday (June 18 and June 20).

    oxygen: AZ is jettisoned of its use for the second jab in Down Under and Canada of changed clinical advice given to the respective governments by its health regulatory authority. Please explain this roll-back after such dramatised on TV and media of the confident roll-out earlier?

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