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Asean blues but we are going great guns

Economists have slashed their GDP growth forecasts for Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, three of the region’s biggest economies.

But for S’pore, MAS has revised higher the economic growth forecast for 2021 and expects that GDP growth could go beyond the initial 4%-6% yoy range forecasted.

• MAS Chief Ravi Menon stated that the increase comes on the back of a smooth
vaccination scheme (36.7% fully vaccinated so far) and stronger global demand.

• Inflation numbers for 2021 were also revised higher, with the forecast for headline CPI
increased to 1.0%-2.0% yoy, up from 0.5%-1.5% yoy.

A bad outlook for tourism is the main reason for dimmer prospects in Thailand. Vaccinations are sluggish and hospital beds are running short. Tourists will stay away.

Pandemic restrictions are another drag on regional growth. With many shops shut, Malaysia’s and the Philippines’ prospects don’t look good.

Although growth forecasts have been revised upward for Indonesia, the region’s biggest economy, daily infections there have surged by 500% in recent weeks.

The greatest risk for South-East Asian economies may be America tightening its monetary policy sooner than expected, which would increase the value of the dollar and make corporate dollar-denominated debt more expensive. GDP forecasts may fall further yet.

Economist

P/S: Modified at 2.49 pm on day of publication to include data on S’pore.

 
Cynical Investor

Cynical Investor blogs at Thoughts of a Cynical Investor

 

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READER COMMENTS BELOW

32 Responses to “Asean blues but we are going great guns”

  • oxygen:

    READ THE HEADLINE already knew who is the “great” mind without scrolling down the page.

    RUBBISH ECONOMICs as expected.

    LEEjiapore fell the deepest a year ago and the stimulus spending about $100 billion as a proportion of the economic base is the highest, hence the APPARENT (not real) economic uplift thereafter looks the brightest elevation.

    In analogy, you fell into the deepest well and given the rope, you have to climb the longest (up) rope to reach the top to safety.

    In simple maths, if you have $1000 in your pocket and walked into a casino of risk (economics) bet and lost 50%, your capital shrink to $500. To recover all your losses, your next (and subsequent) bet/s has to recover 100% (from the lower base of $500) to restore to your initial capital.

    If you scored 70% return – it is not exceptional achievement/return BECAUSE YOU STILL LOST $300 BY AND AT THE END OF THE DAY when you leave the casino.

    STUPID ECONOMIC LOGIC OF THE WRITER in shallow pandering.

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  • oxygen:

    DEFLATION IS THE WORRY next year despite rising inflation which may force the US Fed to “taper off” stimulus spending earlier than expected. Of course, J. Powell denied this in the most recent Congressional hearing when he said inflation is transitory and Fed bond buying is set to continue.

    There are signs that cracks are beginning to emerge of both Powell’s bet on inflation and strong economic recovery is wrong.

    Lumber prices have given up all its gain, so has base metals like copper, nickel price are weakening and zircon/rutile price gain for over 6 months is increasingly tired ( despite shut downs in Africa of Rio’s giant mineral sands mind due to political violence).

    Lumber erases all 2021 gains, here’s why deflation is the risk to watch, says Bloomberg Intelligence

    https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-13/Lumber-erases-all-2021-gains-here-s-why-deflation-is-the-risk-to-watch-says-Bloomberg-Intelligence.html

    After Powell’s testimony to Congress, US dollar fall alongside its 10-yr treasury bond yield. No surprise there. Here are a number of confirmation (???) signals of a weak and weakening US economy.

    - The U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened 2.8% to $88.1 billion in May. The current account deficit, a broader trade measure than includes earnings on investments, widened to a 14-year high in the first quarter.

    What this means is that US economy is not really booming at all, it is just taking newly minted dollars and buying things that are made overseas. What we have is peak consumption of things that aren’t made in the USA. Hence, there is not a condition of sustainable and robust GDP growth.

    - And, even the once mighty housing market is starting to cool down sharply (noticed I pointed out lumber prices have collapse and zircon (used in floor tiling) price rise have also stalled.

    - why is the US laying off people at a rate that is three quarters greater than before COVID-19, despite that fact that the economy has reopened? After all, the pandemic crisis is now a year and a half old; shouldn’t layoffs be almost non-existent?

    Read the rest here.

    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-07-13/Peak-of-the-fake-bull-market.html

    Covid delta is sweeping the world forcing lockdown in EU, and Australia and a surge of pandemic spread across Asia. And existing vaccines are ineffective of containment.

    Me thinks Fed is wrong, Deflation risks is greater even in a global economy space of rising prices (mostly trigger by supply shortages relative to constant demand for food). Latest US CPI figure as measure of inflation is worst in 14 years.

    Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/cpi-may-2021.html

    2022 will be worst than 2021.

    This article writing is SHALLOW PANDERING to fanciful dreaming.

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  • Good business:

    Profit $381 billion…..average income per annum income 14%

    Take cpf monies from the people to make more Monies ……..but cpf members get 1 or 2% interest!

    You don’t know how to do this sort of business?

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  • Billy ma:

    All these numbers mean absolutely nothing to Singaporeans struggling to feed their family or Singaporeans who are trying hard to get a job.

    However these numbers are helpful to PAP ministers & minnows on how much bonuses to give themselves.

    That’s all to such numbers.

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  • xoxo:

    If you pump money into the wrong hands,you get the wrong outcomes but maybe that what the govt is doing.
    Stock prices all went up and more n richer BILLIONAIRE$ minted.
    Meanwhile,jobless PMEs resort to FOOD-GRABBING ???

    MANY MORE,INCLUDING YOUNGER ONES,COMMIT SUICIDE?

    IS THERE REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH?
    Even if from a *low base* Covid-year?

    What growth are COMMON SGS experiencing?
    Or,its only the money in the deep pocket$ of the RICH N POWERFOOL$ the only thing that GROWS?

    As for me and frens,we feel more impoverished even with the govt grant of $600?
    We are still waiting for the SHORT-CHANGE OF APPROXIMATELY $23,000 SO THAT we CAN HELP BOOST DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION N SO HELP GIVE A BOOST TO THE REAL economy and not just pushing up stock prices ?

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  • Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    The author makes a flimsy connection between his own political proclivity for being “entertained or beguiled” and his aversion for a specific statistical error (type I or type II).

    One reason for this very pedantic-seeming distinction, is that these four events have very similar results if they are used in as the “given” in a conditional probability. A conditional probability is written P(E|C), and that is usually read “the probability of E given C.”
    Yet the probability represented is quite different for the different possibilities for C, so the interpretation of this expression in probability math needs to capture that difference.

    This ingenious author could concoct dichotomies ad infinitum, writing another piece on Apples vs. Pears, and so on

    I wonder if anyone else will ever read this.

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  • More PAP bullshit:

    Straits times: Singapore can introduce higher carbon taxes and still stay competitive: MAS chief

    Carbon tax is another opportunity for fund raising by always “rent-seeking” PAP Government. it is stupid for Singapore to commit to any carbon tax because it is so small even if there is zero greenhouse gas emission from Singapore it will not make any difference to climate change. A carbon tax will just further raise prices with wages stagnant and depressed because of the massive influx of “cheap” (no CPF) foreign workers.

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  • @More PAP bullshit

    Sinkieland has got the most $$$faced gahment in the entire planet Earth, I must say.

    While the whole world’s gahments are busy thinking of ways to enable its citizens to weather out the pandemic, this gahment is thinking of ways to sink its Sillyzens further into debts, in spite of the ongoing pandemic.

    And Sinkie gahment claims it has trillions in reserve.

    With the recent intention to borrow money and the current plan to increase this and that, maybe the above claim is not so true after all and Sinkieland may be broke?

    What do you think?

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  • Sor Hais Point At Rochester:

    This CK Tangs. Haiz. Both times used my UOB unionpay card there, the cashier always made me wait and sppend several minutes typing on their cash register and saying daft things like my card is from Malaysia. Even so, so what? Transaction not approved is it?

    Yesterday worse, the auntie refused to give me my APPROVED receipt and wanted to void the transaction. She wasted several minutes consulting her supervisor on what to do. They act like I used a fradulant card or something. I flatly refused. Finally she said lots of dumb things like mastercard knowing I’m using union pay.

    Other places, when I use unionpay, it goes through quickly and smoothly. Thbis Tangs so backdated?

    The way they do business in this climate, no wonder people don’t shop there anymore.

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  • Harder Truths:

    I call BS on regime’s lies.

    $G has never had real ‘growth’ except when bringing in FT and increasing land prices and taxation.

    Does that mean the 6% ‘growth’ comes at the expense of more taxation, more FT and higher land prices and cost of living?

    I think so.

    Tech: All the nice nice BS figures presented in Sinkieland are the result of artificial inflation by the massive influx of FTs. Take FTs away from the equation and the figures will fall like a deck of cards, all the way to the bottom requiring glucose drip liao lor. As opposed to the 1st gen of leaders where the growth are genuine, the current gen LEEdership only know how to artifically inflate the nice nice figures via mass importation of FTs, IMO the current batch are completely cluelss how to keep the figures positive without playing the FTs card.

    But then hor, as the late wise old man said (something alon=g the line): A country cannot just keep importing FTs without any consequences.

    Therefore now all figures nice nice, appears to be doing a good job. However, sooner or later, social problems will surface and it will eventually reach a proportion where POFMA or some other laws cannot reasonably suppress.

    Picture oneself living in an estate where everywhere you go, including your neighbors, one is surrounded by many people of different colored skin. How would you feel 10 years down the road?

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  • maths idiot:

    Don’t know where some of the guys got the US figures from. US CPI for June’ is more than 5%, more than the 2.5% FED is comfortable with. Pressure is building on the FED position that inflation is transitory and in fact the FED chairs and some of its presidents are seeing differing view on the state of US inflations. It is strange that of late 10yr US yield is going down whilst the US$ has gone the other way.
    US$ index is up for the month. Yes, base metals are down from its historic highs a month ago, but for eg copper is 9400/ton is not to be sniff at considering the price precovid is about 6300. Right now, the FED is still on bonds buying policy for the near terms even though some of its members wants it to taper. Some economists said that the employments data is more important than inflation figures right now. The US economy is healthy for now up to end 2022 what with monetary and fiscal policy.

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  • oxygen:

    @ maths idiot

    IT IS NOT STRANGE of the 10 yr US bond yield, the investment landscape in US is NOT as rosy as the stock market pretends.

    maths idiot: It is strange that of late 10yr US yield is going down whilst the US$ has gone the other way.

    Here are two explanations from marketwatch.com this morning read:

    from bond king, Jeffrey Gundlach

    Bond King Jeff Gundlach says there is a simple reason Treasury yields are so low even as inflation surges

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-king-jeff-gundlach-says-there-is-a-simple-reason-treasury-yields-are-so-low-even-as-inflation-surges-11626371005?mod=home-page

    AND A STOCK MARKET FORECASTER who sees an asset bubble market out of kilter to economic fundamentals.

    Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?mod=home-page

    I might add here that stalled zircon prices (for floor tiling manufacture) is consistent with falling lumber prices and a stalled housing/mortgage market in US – prices running too fast beyond affordability must lead to a correction in US housing market, equities and some collateral damage to its economy.

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  • maths idiot:

    There are plenty of these videos in youtube peddllng upcoming doom and gloom, see what you want, believe what you want. These people can
    put their money where their mouth, short the market. I am saying it
    is a curious case of tumbling 10 yr yield with a rising US$, not inflation. US$ movements are tied to treasuries yield, inflation and commodities prices, FED monetary policies, US equities outlook. The last 2 days, the big US banks reported their quarterly results. If I am not wrong, all of them reported a sharp drop in fixed incomes trading revenue, rise in equities trading revenue. This shows the effects of low bond yield, probably only the FED are buying. Commodities Coming down from record high prices doesn’t signal that there is impending sharp correction. I think the next 2 months will be range bound. I am no expert in these financials, but I look forward to Mid Aug, 1 month away.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Maths idiot

    INACCURATE OBSERVATION – the US 10 yr yield is NOT rising in the last two months.

    maths idiot: I am saying it
    is a curious case of tumbling 10 yr yield with a rising US$, not inflation

    Observed over the “short-term” two months backward, it is FALLING as US dollar is RISING. Here are the charts.

    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TMUBMUSD10Y&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=5

    and in that same interval, the US$ is rising

    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dxy&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=5

    Commodities came off sharply from record high levels except gold staging a tired lethargic recovery effort. Gold stocks are struggling to hold despite escalating inflation number. Theoretically only, when bond yield falling to negative interest rate, market fled to gold but not this time.

    Instead this is happening.

    Equities investors focus on inflation, while gold investors seem to ignore it

    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-07-16/Equities-investors-focus-on-inflation-while-gold-investors-seem-to-ignore-it.html

    If you go to goldprice.org, you will notice this happening last night on interactive charts – US dollar priced gold fall deeper than A$ or Can$ priced gold per oz. Gold in USD has become (relatively) more sensitive to USD movement in the negative direction.

    This suggest financial market fled to US$ for safety as equities also fall from peak last night in NY.

    Go to marketwatch.com.

    watch the major US mkt indices falling – DJIA, SPX, Nasdag

    And the fear index rose 8.47 per cent in a SINGLE DAY from recent depressed (complacency to risks) levels.

    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=vix&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=8

    Financial market is jittery.

    As you point out, the two US banks portends smaller earnings forward from fixed income trading (seen over the last two months as I noted of falling bond yields). In practical reality there is no place to earn money from lending activities for banks, recognizing risks.

    US economy is bad shape. Asset prices are inflated – from equities to property to economy-sensitive commodities and banking margins. Covid Delta surge globally is adding to shaken market confidence.

    I fear the drama unfolding forward – just dislike what I am seeing. The week ahead will give a clearer picture of the forward outlook to early August.

    THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVISING – it is just one man’s view of the world – more often than not travelling in the wrong direction.

    Good luck and happy trading, mate.

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  • oxygen:

    @ maths idiot

    ADDING TO THE PRECEDING POST, gold is also often seen (normatively) a safe haven but look at the severe caning the world’s top 14 unhedged gold miners last night?

    It tumbled across the board from 1% to 5% -averaging around 3% – in a single trading session in NY.

    https://www.kitco.com/stocks/hui.html

    how often does this blues happen to these 14 top gold stocks – most of them already fallen 30% or more from their 52-week peak level?

    I SIMPLY DON’T LIKE WHAT I AM SEEING, never mind the gamut of raging bulls (and fallen bears) with their “impressive” U-tube presentation. A lot of these theatrics are for public entertainment with certain bias proclivities, and some logically clueless of even getting their basic observational facts right – just like this article writing, unfortunately.

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  • Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    Actually, there is nothing particularly “befuddling” about the “strange mix of buoyant markets and economic despair.” While prognosticators and index fund junkies were forecasting doom by inflation, the bond market shrugged. Yes, it blipped, but it did not swing wildly as some had thought it should. The actual historic evidence is that the bond markets are excellent indications of inflationary expectations, because the most knowledgeable experienced people trade bonds professionally. Yes, the most diligent, experienced and capable bond trader is no better able to predict the future than a monkey throwing darts at an inflation graph.

    And it’s already made its way into American life. Assets, have undergone vast inflation. And those are the lifeblood of Americans in many cases. Those who don’t have a nice pension, depend on social security and investments for retirement. Currently, the asset base in the US is so inflated that the rate of return is dropping like a stone. Yield has been commoditized and put on the market. $500k twenty years ago would produce a decent retirement income.

    Today, it absolutely fails to do so.

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  • Walao eh, yesterday my 30k of Doge coin fell to a new low of $0.171 cents, almost heart attack. Luckily I loon and did not sell, I bought another 10k and today, it went up to $0.205 I quick quick sell. heng ar!!!

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  • oxygen:

    @
    @ Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    THE US10-YR TREASURY BOND YIELDS were traded as high as 14% in 1981, it has been on the one-way trending down since -currently sitting around 1.3%.

    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

    It reflected the impaired state of US economic erosion. Had the “average” American investors put their savings in US equities, notably the SPX (S&P 500) stocks with global economic exposure benefiting from the WTOs expansion which included China, these “average” US investors would be doing very well.

    The bull market in bond (seen in falling yield) since 1981 must come to an end as year approaching zero to negative as asset bubbles continue to wreak havoc on fictitious valuation now totally out of kilter with fundamental (affordability and sustaining that affordability) via employment income and investment cash flows.

    Both Janet Yellen, US Treasury secretary and Fed Chair, J Powell knows the inflation raging but not yet the heat of pain.

    Here is what they said in public at Congressional hearing most recently.

    Yellen sees ‘several more months of rapid inflation’ before easing, worries about housing impact

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/yellen-sees-several-more-months-of-rapid-inflation-worries-about-impact-on-home-buyers.html

    It is not that long ago – looking at the chart in the aforementioned weblink that the US 10-yr Treasury bond yield was trading at record low of 0.5% level as recent as August 2020 i.e. a mere 12 months ago. At end March 2020, it was trading at 1.73% yet unable to sustain for even one year.

    The bond market is telling all that yields on investment are NOT SUSTAINABLE – drifting down as INFLATION RAGES. Valuation, particularly property as GONE NUTS.

    THAT IS WHY JANET YELLEN IS WORRIED ABOUT IMPACT OF INFLATIONARY PRESSURE KILLING AFFORDABILITY ON HOME BUYERS WHO NOW HAVE TO CONTENDED WITH EXPANDED DEBT MORTGAGE they can ill-afford or would prefer.

    Of course, if yield falls in line of slowing economy, timber (lumber prices) will fall alongside zircon. That is to say, the bond market is correct, deflation worries more than counter-balanced inflation fear.

    J. Powell told Congressional hearing

    CNBC :Powell acknowledged that the Fed “is not comfortable” with the current rate of inflation, but he also expects that to subside

    The Fed, Yellen is talking down inflation fears IN TERRIFIED FEARS I might add, and bond market is nodding.

    What if Fed, Yellen worst inflation fear materialise and Central banks including Fed change course – REMEMBER global CBs are tapering now of Covid stimulus spending? In which case, CBs will be forced to raise interest rate withdrawing liquidity?

    BUBBLE ASSETS WILL CRASH! Govt and peasants carried too much debt!

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  • oxygen:

    Ooops, sorry, typo error there

    oxygen: The bull market in bond (seen in falling yield) since 1981 must come to an end as year approaching zero to negative as asset bubbles continue to wreak havoc on fictitious valuation

    should be read as

    oxygen: The bull market in bond (seen in falling yield) since 1981 must come to an end as YIELD approaching zero to negative as asset bubbles continue to wreak havoc on fictitious valuation

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  • oxygen:

    Ooops, another typo/error there

    oxygen: At end March 2020, it was trading at 1.73% yet unable to sustain for even one year.

    should be read as

    oxygen: At end March 2021, it was trading at 1.73% yet unable to sustain for even A FEW MONTHS currently trading at 1.3% levels.

    Tech: Ahem… what happened to Spell check? lol

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  • Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    The Central Bank policy of creating money in historically unprecedented amounts, per click of a mouse, left savers with no safe alternative. The real return of the 5 yr T-bill is -1.79% *. What is a saver to do?

    The money in the stock money is practically ALL from the people who do not need it. The richest 0.1% own 17% of the market. The 1% owns 50% of the market and the richest 10% own 92%. People in the 50% – 90% range own 7.75% while the lower 50% own a whopping 0.25%….
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-richest-1-own-50-of-stocks-held-by-american-households-150758595.html

    As for housing, prices have barely recovered from their loss in 2008. https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

    Food prices which the FED excludes them from the inflation figure it uses. In the last 10 years their inflation rate has varied from -0.1% (2016) to 3.9% (2020). The latest data has them at 3.6%.
    https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

    But even so, the Fed will not be able to return to its pre-money printing policy. The amounts involved, relative what it can do, are too large by now.
    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield

    Tapering the $120 plus billion Fed purchases of government and other bonds — every month — let alone raising interest by a basis point or two would tank those financial markets.

    Good luck to us.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    INTERESTING DATA you have dug out, thanks for sharing.

    Shenkoji Buchikonya: As for housing, prices have barely recovered from their loss in 2008. https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

    Without adjusting for inflation, NSA’s data showed US median housing prices hovering around $200K mark, now it is nearer to $300K levels – quite a substantial uplift in just 12 years gap, so your conclusion above is not quite correct.

    Median housing prices is not reflective of highly urbanised cities – prices just simply raced away.

    Shenkoji Buchikonya: But even so, the Fed will not be able to return to its pre-money printing policy. The amounts involved, relative what it can do, are too large by now.
    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield

    Tapering the $120 plus billion Fed purchases of government and other bonds — every month — let alone raising interest by a basis point or two would tank those financial markets.

    Good luck to us.

    Yes, this I also strongly concur. Too much sovereign and consumer debt. And that could suddenly destabilise financial markets stability of your observations above.

    A lot of recent raging inflation is covid pandemic induced, they won’t go away as Delta variant surges around the world unstoppable. I see disrupted mining operation and agricultural food production.

    Everything we eat and use come from the ground. How can Yellen and Powell day dream that the raging inflation (they are fearfully uncomfortable now) is transitionary, going forward?

    Good luck to all the peasants, especially those deeply buried in debt (over-bloated property and equities investments).

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  • oxygen:

    @ Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    I TOOK A QUICK LOOK at your numbers – housing inflation in US (unadjusted for inflation) median house price from 2008 to current over 12 years span is roughly 4% per annum.

    Quick check and comparison, the US 10 yr Treasury bond yield was also around 4% in 2008 (now 1.3%). As bond prices appreciate, the yields falls as you know. So there is some compensating offsets.

    Adjusting for inflation, investing in the theoretical bundle of US median housing prices, the average Americans have continued to slide since 2008.

    And it appears professional bond investors are the only group that did slightly better than the rests except those in niche speculative sectors like tech and meme (Gamestop) or commodities (gold and base metals) sector.

    Property investment (I consider that to be a bond proxy at bigger risks undertaking of massive debt overload) is not better off too, at least in the USA.

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  • Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    Chairman Powell has already made the public case that if prices continue to rise the Fed will act. The Q.E. program is the first thing he will cut back. That’s not quite right – the Q.E. program buys bonds to inject that liquidity, which does drive down interest rates. Arguably that is not a policy objective, the Fed has been aggressively pursuing a policy of low interest rates outside of Q.E. So, I’d argue low interest rates are part of the goal.

    I do not know what will happen. But under the circumstances, “The Consumer Price Index, a gauge of inflation, rose 5 percent in May from a severely depressed number a year earlier — the fastest rate in nearly 13 years.” Respectfully investment banker, here we have another magician from the Oz School of Economics and Chicken Entrails. Q.E. is a boon for the felons in the banking biz.

    The NSA’s data shown is anecdotal. It’s increasingly plausible that inflation traditionally calculated is not a very relevant measure. The lowest mortgage interest rate I remember 6.25%, a rate I assumed. In 1980, the rate climber from an initial 11% to 12.5% by the time of closure. But at least the price of the homes were within reason and affordable. One could make the monthly payments. What was $200,000 a few years ago is now $300,000. Today homes are much more expensive and rates are much lower. It is counter-intuitive but it actually shows the weakness in the economy which can only get activity from close to 0% interest rates and from speculations.

    oxygen: Median housing prices is not reflective of highly urbanised cities – prices just simply raced away.

    To expand on this, the development of white suburbia was indeed a deliberated social program, propelling the advantages of one racial group at the neglect of another. A house in the SF Bay area (1966) went from $36,000 to 2.8 million in 30 years, and then to 5.8 million. Even in Oregon where a home for $400,000 on three acres, the value has risen to over 1.4 million. As a result of all of this tomfoolery, the freeways and river edges are lined with the homeless in the tents, increasing by the week. We need to finally mean Black Lives Matter

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  • oxygen:

    I WARNED 5 DAYS AGO this

    oxygen: Me thinks Fed is wrong, Deflation risks is greater even in a global economy space of rising prices

    Well financial markets in US (and Europe) took a caning last night. Read this weblink from Marketwatch.com why it is so, according to some market pundits.

    Why did the Dow tumble Monday? Economic growth is now a bigger worry than inflation

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-did-the-dow-tumble-monday-economic-growth-is-now-a-bigger-worry-than-inflation-11626729613?mod=home-page

    Vix index – a good gauge of market fear factor – rocket up last night, up $4 or an awesome 21.95%

    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=VIX&insttype=Index

    The US 10-yr treasury bond yield tumbled almost 10 basis point or 7.72%

    https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TMUBMUSD10Y&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=7

    Spot gold fell in US$ term but risen nearly 0.7% in A$ and Can$ terms – the implied measure is rising US dollar.

    IN SUMMARY OF ALL THE ABOVE OBSERVATIONS, it means investors fled equities, gold, bought US dollars to buy bonds, and most fled the turbulence roiling financial market to hide in the safety of US dollar.

    I suspect, the banks lending/supporting pandemic-ridden sectors are increasingly jittery.

    Once that credit market freeze up of lending and credit recall, stock markets around the world and properties will see a deep correction very soon, maybe even before the beginning of August.

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  • oxygen:

    IF JEROME POWELL (Fed Chairman) and Janet Yellen (US Treasury Secretary) are both wrong of inflation risks (they think it is transitory) and a booming economy ahead (instead of a pandemic-instigated deflationary showing up now in the bond market last night) – A NIGHTMARE AHEAD awaits all on the economic front in 2022.

    Good luck to all those trapped who bought into asset bubbles and over-leveraged mortgage-funded property speculation. Jobs will disappear faster than lightning flashes and a lot will walk dazed on the street like a zombie.

    I am not doomsayer but truly terrified at what is in store for all including myself deep in the “casino” thrill-seeking.

    I keep thinking – Could this be worst than 2008/2009 GFC bloodbath?

    This thread article write up, I maintain, is

    oxygen: STUPID ECONOMIC LOGIC OF THE WRITER in shallow pandering.

    and

    oxygen: This article writing is SHALLOW PANDERING to fanciful dreaming.

    THE HEADLINE READ IS ANNOYING.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    MATE, thanks for sharing the US economic setting. This memory part of yours is UNLIKELY TO BE CORRECT by the remotest of possibility.

    Shenkoji Buchikonya: The lowest mortgage interest rate I remember 6.25%, a rate I assumed. In 1980, the rate climber from an initial 11% to 12.5% by the time of closure. But at least the price of the homes were within reason and affordable

    As the stats I submitted in this weblink, US 10-yr Treasury bond yield was paying at 14% in 1981

    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

    which banker will lend you a 30-yr mortgage at 6.25% or 12.5%, taking into account inflation risks and implied time value of money. Remember, the US10 yr bond is “guaranteed” of repayment promised by UNCLE SAM, no less!

    In any case, such a yield inversion would have meant total chaos on the economic front – the Fed have totally lost control of its monetary policy.

    Impossible!

    As for CPI measure, I believe in US statistical computation, IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE VOLATILE FOOD AND ENERGY PRICES. So CPI does not reflect rising costs of living.

    And you forgot two things – China cheap exports is exporting deflationary – consumer electronic goods prices falling in Walmart etc? And then technology hold down other living costs too, besides paying better wages. So it is not surprising of your conclusion thus

    Shenkoji Buchikonya: The NSA’s data shown is anecdotal. It’s increasingly plausible that inflation traditionally calculated is not a very relevant measure.

    Median housing prices don’t mean much because of huge structural change in US housing sector and economy – urbanised comfort comes at big price and costs and rural properties abandonment of no interested buying. This is also happening in Australia.

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  • xoxo:

    The seeming *growth* in $inCity can be accrued to the LARGEST PUMP OF $100 BILLION (looted from reserves of sgs,many of whom received only $600) vs the the injections of our neighbours.

    Anyway,growth based on a low base year is ,in reality,a mere aberration like a mirage in a dry desert?

    The $inkie gahmen is trying to sell $inCity as a safe harbour to attract more rich people to come here but HASTE IN DOING SO has backfired as seen in resurging number of COVID CASES.

    With regards to the international stock market rises,it is stoked by EXCESSIVE CASH LIQUIDITY GOING INTO THE HANDS IF THOSE WHO SPECULATE.
    There is no solid REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH story ,per se?

    Even if there seem to be,based on some economic data,we must recall they are from A VERY LOW PANDEMIC-YEAR BASE.

    So,the world is still miles away in terms of employment,for example,from PRE-COVID days when the GLOBAL ECONOMY was still anaemic then?

    To my simple thinking,ALL THE RECENT REPORTS OF GROWTH ARE JUST MIRAGES here and there scattered over a DRY DESERT.

    THE ONLY WAY FORWARD IS FOR THE WORLD LEADERS TO ZERO IN THE WORLD RESOURCES TO FIND THE RIGHT VACCINE TO END THIS PANDEMIC.
    MEANWHILE,ACCEPTING LESS CROSS-BORDERS TRAVELS IS A SIMPLE WISDOM.

    MORE HASTE LEADS TO LESS SPEED as is already being witnessed.

    Respect nature(the virus) and nature will reward us.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Shenkoji Buchikonya

    I FOUND THE CONFIRMATION that

    oxygen: As for CPI measure, I believe in US statistical computation, IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE VOLATILE FOOD AND ENERGY PRICES. So CPI does not reflect rising costs of living.

    Here it is – at paragraph 3 in this publishing from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price index Summary :
    The index for all items less food and energy…….

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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  • Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    oxygen:
    @ Shenkoji Buchikonya:

    MATE, thanks for sharing the US economic setting. This memory part of yours is UNLIKELY TO BE CORRECT by the remotest of possibility.

    As the stats I submitted in this weblink, US 10-yr Treasury bond yield was paying at 14% in 1981

    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

    which banker will lend you a 30-yr mortgage at 6.25% or 12.5%, taking into account inflation risks and implied time value of money. Remember, the US10 yr bond is “guaranteed” of repayment promised by UNCLE SAM, no less!

    lol.. mate, that’s the mortgage interest rate I had on my first house at 6.25%, in 2002.
    https://www.valuepenguin.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates#hist

    It may reflect slight differences based on the state of residence.
    Average mortgage rates in each state and territory shows differences across the U.S. to be fairly small, when compare each state to the overall national average of 3.99% today.

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  • simple sinkie:

    After pandemic,property prices here will go up.
    There is pent-up demand to be filled.
    Speculating lower home prices is dangerous,even not smart,I bet.

    No need to analyse complicated way.
    Demand will push up prices soon after pandemic.

    Want to bet?

    If you have spare cash,buy freehold landed.

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  • pawnshopper:

    @simple sinkie

    Guess you are right.
    Many young couples still looking around plus some PRs and rich new citizens.

    Saw India-indians looking for houses near where I live.
    Ang mohs seldom buy,they rent.

    Chinamen too buying here.

    Some people make money from stocks.

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