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Do the numbers gel with the rhetoric of Covid-19 exhortations

(ST, Nov 19) “Dip in Covid-19 ICU rate in Singapore could pave way for the vaccinated to mix more freely”

“The Covid-19 cases in the hospitals have come down slightly, with fewer patients in intensive care units (ICUs), paving the way for the vaccinated to mix a little more freely among themselves sooner rather than later, experts said.

However, the unvaccinated will likely have to continue living with tight restrictions, they added.

The overall ICU utilisation rate as at Thursday here has slipped to 58.5 per cent, from 62.6 per cent a day ago and 67.1 per cent at the start of the month.

About 5 per cent of Singapore’s population has yet to be vaccinated, though they are eligible.

Prof Fisher said: “People that have chosen to be unvaccinated have essentially chosen to be infected by Covid-19 and run the risk of severe disease. As more and more of them get infected, the majority will recover and have immunity similar to those vaccinated.”"

Comment:
As to “About 5 per cent of Singapore’s population has yet to be vaccinated, though they are eligible” – this works out to about 272,500 (5% x 5,450,000 population Jun)

However, since 94% of those eligible are fully vaccinated – does it mean that the number is the same as the 85% fully vaccinated in the population (85% x 5,450,000 = 4,632,500)

Hence, 5% of those eligible (1% partially vaccinated) is 246,410 (4,632,500 divided by 0.94 x 0.05)

So, at this stage of the computation – you can see that the 272,500 (5% of population) has become 246,410 (5% of the eligible)?

How many of the medically ineligible have yet to obtain their vaccination exemption certificates, since the criteria and procedure to obtain the exemption, was only announced on 7 Nov?

If we deduct this (estimate 50,000) – we get 196,410 (246,410 – 50,000)

At this stage of the computation – you can see that the initial 272,500 has now become 196,410?

As to “”People that have chosen to be unvaccinated have essentially chosen to be infected by Covid-19 and run the risk of severe disease. As more and more of them get infected, the majority will recover and have immunity similar to those vaccinated” – since this infected group are deemed to be “fully vaccinated” – let’s try to estimate the number

248,587 total cases + 25,000 (Self-administered ART positive tests not counted) = 273,587 x 50% = 136,794 (the narrative has been that most of the cases are not vaccinated – since sometime in Aug, no more breakdown of the cases into vax & unvax)

So, 196,410 (computed above) – 136,794 = 59,616?

This is quite close to Bill Gates’ remarks at the Bloomberg Forum that there are 60,000 remaining who choose not to be vaccinated and deserve to be “lashed”?

I trust that you can see fom the above layman’s analysis – transparency of the Covid-19 statistics is so important – not vague percentages and definitions, but we need the actual numbers?

Covid-19: 64 critically ill in ICU (54 vax, 10 unvax estimate)?

The primary reason given for the discriminatory measures imposed on the unvaccinated by choice, is to protect our healthcare system from being overwhelmed, particularly for ICU (critically ill)

The overall ICU utilisation rate has dropped to 57.0%

Estimated Ratio of vax to unvax critically ill in ICU is 28 : 3

(4,632.500 x 0.6 per 100,000) = 28 : (60,000 x 4.9 per 100,000) = 3

For illustrative purposes, on a proportional basis, the breakdown of the 64 critically ill in ICU on 19 Nov, may be about 58 (94% (4,632,500 estimate) eligible fully vaccinated – (28 divided by 31) x 64); & about 6 (60,000) eligible not vaccinated – (3 divided by 31) x 64 (rounded up to the nearest whole no.)

Why not disclose the breakdown so that we have a clearer picture of whether the above very layman’s estimate may be in tune with the actual statistics?

What is the estimated number of the medically ineligible for vaccination?

(Note: If we know this statistic – the ratio derived above would be different. For example, for illustrative purposes, if it is 50,000 – the estimated ratio of vax to unvax becomes 28 : 5 (ICU 54 to 10))
By the way, are those eligible unvaccinated who have been infected and are thus deemed to be “fully vaccinated”, counted in the statistics?

Why did we stop giving the breakdown of the vaccinated and unvaccinated for deaths, require oxygen, ICU and cases?

In this connection, perhaps we should heed the MOH’s statement “We wish to remind members of public that transparency and accuracy of information undergirds public confidence in a pandemic crisis”?

 

Leong Sze Hian

 

 

yyy
READER COMMENTS BELOW

15 Responses to “Do the numbers gel with the rhetoric of Covid-19 exhortations”

  • 99.9% vax liow:

    So the estimate is only 60,000 or so not vax. Don’t forget the “Mas Selamat” cases. Many are either in Singapore or not in Singapore, but counted to be in Singapore, assumed to be having picnic at the reservoirs but already at Langkawi.

    In Singapore 99.99% of those eligible are already vax. Only 20 left for TRE’s JR.

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  • xoxo:

    So,the only furnish true stats when the numbers/data are favourable to them.
    But,jumble up or stop publishing such stats when things go against them or what they claim?

    Kiasi,kiasu and KIA THE TRUTH!

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  • SG envoy talking cock:

    The Independent: SG envoy responds to UN appeal for stay of execution: Nagaenthran “undertook criminal endeavour… despite knowing unlawfulness of his acts”

    1) SG envoy should show proof that even with a (low) IQ of 69 Nagaenthran still understood he was committing a crime.

    2) What is the MINIMUM IQ for a person to be considered responsible and accountable for his/her action?

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  • opposition dude:

    Not sure how many are unvaccinated to be honest, a wild hantam could be 350k or so. We don’t have proper numbers of people who are medically exempted from taking the vaccine nor the number of eligible people above 12 years old who are unvaccinated. So we can only do guesswork.

    Whatever it is no one can deny that the majority are fully vaccinated and are the ones spreading the virus in shopping centres, bus interchanges, hawker centres, kopitiams and anywhere else where large groups are found. The restrictions on the unvaccinated may or may not be lifted depending on PAP’s mood. If they feel that no progress is being made on the unvaccinated they may just lift restrictions as it’s a small group.

    Or they may just decide to play the game for years to come and leave the restrictions in place until all are jabbed, who knows?

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  • oxygen:

    ALL THESE GOOD WORK of data research is redundant of meaning and value (if the re-opening of the border and economy) when the tsunami waves of infection rolls in from abroad.

    Don’t expect the risks-takers among the millions of fly-in merry-making tourists to comply with dinner for two per table or drinking by the bar of two only and obeying of social distance.

    It reminds me of bush fires every summer Down Under – once lit, it is raging flames and burnt into ashes anything that in its pathway of wind fanning.

    VIRUS INFECTION, unlike Australian bush fire, is a lot harder to contain once erupted. Our hospital ICU capacity will be so quickly overwhelmed faster than the eruption of tropical thunderstorm so soon after the first lightning/thunder roars.

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  • PAP the Predator:

    Please answer which is the MOST EXPENSIVELY ASSEMBLED corrupted govt existing in the world?

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  • Partial truth?:

    Oredi mixed freely.

    Meet up with a friend and have coffee with him at Serangoon NEX mall earlier. Then it rain heavily.

    Due to the rain, we decided to take our dinner at the nearby coffeeshop outside the mall. We walk thru the old bus terminal towards the array of coffeeshops. Surprised to discover groups of maids 2 to 5 a group ) gather there ( guess their rest day ), sitting at close proximity to each other. Quite sure they are not related in blood but just friends. Yet they can group together.

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  • Fire:

    Delta Variants

    Vax , Unvax

    underLYING medical condition

    Wash hand clean clean .

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  • Democracyissooverated:

    So clever, can you run in next elections?

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  • sad:

    Inspite of the restriction, the spread of the Virus is clearly among the vaccinated.
    No point making life Misérables for the unvaccinated.
    They already have to live with their choice and and bear responsibility and consequence with it.
    I am vaccinated but I think the policy is not quite right to discriminate the unvaccinated.

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  • illiterate pap voters:

    in the private sector, those who are really good, meaning in giving value to the place they work, are rewarded.

    in the pap sector, no need to be good. only need to know how to polish shoes of those atas and kick at those below.

    THEREFORE,

    when something goes wrong in the private sector, the information for cause and effect comes readily in hand.

    when something goes wrong in the pap sector, hahaha. only smoke bombs are thrown around, with the pap folks hoping sooner or later a solution comes out on its own.

    LOOK at the current covid BS.

    1, vax seems to be the pap tool, pap’s smoke bomb. BUT those dying, critically ill, are mostly the vaxxed which throws wide open a clear path of sight for even cotton sheep to scratch their sheep heads are ask, eh eh eh, what pap is saying and doing make no sense leh.

    2, in truth, if more vaxxed are dying, critically ill, then, vax for ffff? and why need to segregate vaxxed and unvaxxed since the vaxxed are dying in MUCH larger proportions?

    3, pap has NO solution. pap is only going through the motion of doing something. BUT the something pap is doing is all action without a solution, like shuffling files from left pile to right pile without a single file being properly processed.

    WHAT are we trying to say? hahaha. simple. the S$m pa pap is throwing at its folks has produced a bunch of good for nothing shoe polishers who cannot deliver anything worthwhile. BUT surely they can at least polish shoes swee swee?

    hahaha. many forget.

    the emperor without clothes does not wear shoes, otherwise nakedness becomes obvious if shoed but unclothed.

    THEREFORE the pap folks who are supposed to be best in shoe polishing are actually also faking the task because not one of them is really polishing any shoe but just pretending.

    WHO can blame them for being fake? when S$m pa is at stake, if we get the chance, truth be told, we shall also be pap shoe polishers.

    because we are not selected for the S$m pa pap prize, we just tell the truth lah.

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  • Harder Truths:
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  • Harder Truths:

    Do not forget that vaccination after 8 or so months is meaningless. Does that mean that all vaxxed become suddenly unvaxxed?

    It should be so. Unless they go and jab jab jab again.

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  • Relax:

    More than 400+ of the infected elderly are from nursing homes, and if not wrong 90 to 95% are vaxxed. How many of them are recovered?

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