In Singapore, remember history before signing a deal with Kim

Let me take a crack at answering the question on the minds of every TV host, pundit, journalist and think-tanker, and even the mind of the President of the United States: What will be the ultimate result out of the U.S.-North Korea Singapore summit?

The answer is easy: Lots of amazing photos that will be glossed over for a generation, and talk of an historic success!

Or, at least, that is what we will be led to believe, if history is any guide.

You don’t need a PhD from Princeton, or 30 years’ experience at Langley studying the successive Kim regimes’ mind-numbing propaganda statements, to know what Pyongyang will almost certainly do during what President Trump bills as a “one-time shot” to escape its reputation as the roguest of rogue regimes on Planet Earth.

All you have to do is put yourself in the shoes of the portly pariah of Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un. From there, what to do next is easy.

Lie.

All Kim must do is get his handshake — the selfie that will likely be the photo of the century — with President Trump and slug out but ultimately agree to a nuclear deal with Washington that will seem, at least initially, like a real deal to give up his nuclear arsenal.

Let more handshakes commence. People will say that Kim has changed, is a new type of leader who could transform his nation. Heck, we could even see President Moon of South Korea join the festivities, where a formal ending of the Korean War could be agreed to.

But don’t we know already how this story ends? History cries out to us, its testimony literally showing us page-by-page what happens next: Kim will go back on his word — like the Kims who have ruled North Korea for three generations always do.

How he will do it is almost pointless in trying to figure out, but what North Korea has done in the past when it comes to breaking its word should serve as a good guide.

They could lock us into technical negotiations for months or years over their false nuclear disarmament, claiming that America and its allies are violating the deal. Or they could try to bend the rules of the agreement, or just outright back out of it — we all know the history of how North Korea treats deals when it comes to its nuclear weapons: They are as disposable as toilet paper.

No matter what agreement Pyongyang signs, it will agree to something. For it knows, all too well, that once the world sees Kim and Trump shake hands and forge an agreement, it will most likely have slipped out of what can only be described as a self-imposed international isolation that was historic in its scope and longevity. And putting it back into the box will prove almost impossible.

More…

 

Harry J. Kazianis (@grecianformula) is director of Defense Studies at the Center for the National Interest, founded in 1994 by President Richard M. Nixon, as well as executive editor on its publishing arm, The National Interest. Kazianis previously served on the foreign policy team of the 2016 Ted Cruz presidential campaign. He has also held positions as Foreign Policy Communications Manager at the Heritage Foundation, editor-in-chief of The Diplomat as well as a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The views voiced in this article are his own.

 

 

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19 Responses to “In Singapore, remember history before signing a deal with Kim”

  • Submit:

    Harry thinks too lowly of Kim in that he would repeat what the Sr Kims did. What Kim has done so far far exceeded the expectation of his own people and the forcibly sparated South Korea. Using the Asian mentality, all debts must be collected. The forced separation of Korea should be compensated and Kim will definitely demand it as a conditions for denuclearization. If he gets it, he will gain full respects from all Koreans from both sides and his home agenda for a united Korea will be a breeze. Enforced separation has been a national disgrace and to an Asian it would be an decendent divine duty to restore honour, dignity and integrity.

    Nest Trump came to the Summit not as a negotiator but a big gang chief trying to do his little obligation for all his bootlickers as expressed so vividly by the little Lee of Singapore, Tsai of Taiwan, Ram of India etc. To him world peace is just shits by what he has done on racialism both in @ out of US. His tantrum at G7 shows his political maturity. Just imgine his instant resonse to Kim’s first condition. Singaapore mediator would not have the balls to settle the two rogues down, even Tommy Koh presided.

    Another trump card in Kim hand is what about mutual denucleaiztion. This will bring US to reality that US has absolutely no right to order his counterparts around the world to do his bidding. This definitely will get Trump hits the roof. This will definitely win the applause of most nation except downright bananas.

    The Summit will collapse on these two rational demands which no nation can fault it. This will crush the ego and arrogance of the imbercile who would spend $20 millions on this meangingless Summit which Trump hopes to reinforce US postion as nanny those nations with incapable leaders
    while Kim sees it a good opportunity to crush it.

    SIN arrogant leadership think with their nfi brains that they harness these two strong will men to their feet. Pu zi lian li. All they have done is throwing $20 miilions away Somewhere somehow & somewhat

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  • rukidding:

    Pity our Indian, turned Malay President …..seems like “No status and standing” at all in being the Host of this Country ???

    Practically,..”ZERO MEDIA” attention given ???

    Instead,…all the “Camera Angles” and “photos”…”snatch away by PM and other smaller frys” ???

    Another “Puppet” ( temporarily stashed aside ) ?

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  • $20M into Loong-kao:

    Haha! What deal did Trump and Kim actually sign no one knows.

    My guess, the agreement is:

    “I promise to stop calling you short and fat.”

    “I promise to stop calling you old.”

    “And we both agree the SGPM is such a dumbass to pay $20M for our holidays.”

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  • Bloodysuckers:

    $20M into Loong-kao:
    Haha! What deal did Trump and Kim actually sign no one knows.

    Latest price tag is $50mil …no more $20mil..
    My guess, the agreement is:

    “I promise to stop calling you short and fat.”

    “I promise to stop calling you old.”

    “And we both agree the SGPM is such a dumbass to pay $20M for our holidays.”

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  • LIONS:

    Ultimately,it will be BIG BRO PANDA who will pull KIM N N KOREA out of the rut.
    USA has its own domestic enonomic concerns?
    N Korea will be closer to Panda still.

    When they rebuild their economy,they can even send N Koreans to the moon,what more rebuilding nuke arsenal???

    Whereas in Sin City,our gahmen continue to act stoopidLEE.

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  • 两千万哦:

    哗-两千万哦
    星民啊,两千万可以買好多好多油和水啊。油可以把得南和金跟星大官混在一起,好说话吗!如果得南火起水可以把水消滅。假如金乱跳水可以把他静下耒。假如星大官被弄得不知这么办, 水可以清请脸,油可以塗在嘴,便利好説話或乞求南
    金入油再谈。 小兒好利害想到这个好方法皆大歡喜。有油也有水把南金弄得服服贴贴。大官太高兴做得这样完美。假如油或水不夠还可以从苯星民要去。沒有问题
    —定三方都高高兴兴的完㽚这油和水使命的。

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  • Right Lion:

    u r bang on lion. How come the billions wages of the Cabint n Parliament do not see that. They cannot be that moronic right. They must see this as another of their negative investments. Mrs Seat Warmer would strut out and shrieked ‘only $20 millions. Peanut.vYes this time she is right as Gorilla couple can lose billions to buy red company and honored for the effort with millions bonus. Sinkies will still think they still r about to get few hundreds in their cpf. If the gahman s stupidlee sinkies r idiots.

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  • Not a PAP supporter:

    I conclude that Singapore opposition has gone left. I will NOT vote for any party that has nothing good to say about what Singapore has done here. Afterall, its NOT PAP who paid for this, it is US, everyday Singaporeans through OUR hard earn taxes, and THIS is our contribution to peace in ASIA. (And screw you liberal globalist ang mo left, leave our domestic affairs alone) To the pro Chinese Communist sympathizers, you should also support this as your Motherland China would not want a nuclear war in their backyards due to a war with the WEST either! Opposition, please shut he Fuck Up and stop bringing your credibilities even lower with voters in he next Singapore GE. Focus on real LOCAL issues. This is NOT your domain.

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  • pap whitewashed small island:

    give us four Singaporeans KIM regime any time. better than whitewashed pap Lj and pap Cb fake news small island Singapore looking good on the outside but rotting rot on the inside.

    sure. pap Ljs and pap Cbs say, not happy, migrate. ffff. if Singapore passport can so easy enter any open leg country gone long long ago.

    sell over priced HDB collect full CPF true happy retirement if only anyone accepts such. unfortunately the only open leg country in the world is the one we already holding passport. WTF.

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  • Great Asia:

    North Korea is lucky, it is next to the mighty China. If it were like Ukraine, Syria or any other small country, the White crusaders would have bombed it back to stone age.

    After Trump, another White will take over as the president of the USA, and the killing will start again.

    Cannot trust the White people and their worshipers, they are too violent.

    Ha ha ha!

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  • HarderTruths:

    Remember this you 70% $G voters – the ones who vote for pappies -

    When you are replaced by FT or cannot afford a meal or health care – think of this great success by the pappies andhow it is well worth your sufferings.

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  • Just the beginning only:

    Haha…. Signing the deal is the easy part with $20m sponsorship thrown into be served with nice coffee and tea.

    Now, getting it fulfilled is another, another, ….. story.

    Just like woody promise of Swiss standard of living, to date sinkies have to bear with the Swiss cost of living.

    Ah Long and Ah Jib also signed several mega deals. Now MM decides to review or scrap one by one.

    So don’t celebrate too much or Loony gets over excited over the outcome. Hor……

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  • Suggestion, please!:

    So what do you suggest, Harry?

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  • Lai Lion Lai:

    Big bro need keep little bro close at all cost, of course must pull.

    Uncle might have domestic concerns but not hesitate to send any N Koreans to the moon, Kim just need to tweet Trump, what more rebuild N Korea domestic economy!

    Real question is; would Panda let Bald Eagle perch so close?

    Can act stoopidLEE but raillLEE you want get out of the way when 2 elephants start to dance.

    LIONS:
    Ultimately,it will be BIG BRO PANDA who will pull KIM N N KOREA out of the rut.
    USA has its own domestic enonomic concerns?
    N Korea will be closer to Panda still.

    When they rebuild their economy,they can even send N Koreans to the moon,what more rebuilding nuke arsenal???

    Whereas in Sin City,our gahmen continue to act stoopidLEE.

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  • Stupid article:

    Trump did the right thing. If you want “change”, you need to take some risks. All previous attempts have failed so risks have to be taken to move forward.

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  • LIONS:

    So,looks like Ong Ye KAN will take over as MFA MINISTER after VIVI steps down next GE?

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  • madonlah:

    theres no harm donate blood.really.
    but don donate blood shead.

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  • Read this..:

    Seems like USA doesnt think much of SG or know much about us…
    so LHL head swelled for nothing..

    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/us-mistakenly-puts-singapore-in-malaysia-during-trump-kim-summit-dra
    -wing-social-media

    Proven that sg is just being used..

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  • Read this..:
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