Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?

After reading this post, tell me if you think Jun Liang, the resale flat buyer, will vote for the PAP in the next GE.

Further to Will resale flat owners still vote for PAP in next GE? where I reported that the value of the homes has been falling even as prices of private dwellings rebounded over the past five quarters, leading to a 13.8 points gap in their price performance, the widest in more than a decade. Private home prices rose 0.5% in the third quarter, after climbing 3.4% in the previous three months here’s a really sad story

 

“I bought in the resale market when the prices were quite high some years back,” said Jun Liang, 42, whose apartment is in a 55-year-old block called Selegie House. “When I look at the value now, it would not have appreciated — in fact, after renovation costs it could even be a small loss.”

[…]

Home-owner Jun and his wife bought their apartment in one of the oldest HDB blocks in 2013 after getting married, spending about S$700,000 on the property and another S$100,000 to renovate. Now, they have thoughts of upgrading to a private condo. But, looking at their budget, the couple wonder if they’ve any chance of getting the home they want.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-25/singapore-s-public-housing-envy-of-the-world-hits-rough-patch

I think he’s deluded about a small loss taking into account renovation costs. Remember prices for flats like his took a dive after Lawrence Wong’s warning about the govt taking back the land when the leasehold expires: Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell.

And it’s going to get worse.

Nicholas Mak, executive director and head of research at real estate firm ZACD Group said:

HDB resale prices may fall 1 percent to 2 percent this year, according to Mak.  In the long term, besides undermining public sentiment, declines could threaten demand for private housing, since fewer people will feel wealthy enough to upgrade to condominiums, according to Cushman & Wakefield Inc.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-25/singapore-s-public-housing-envy-of-the-world-hits-rough-patch

Who asked Jun Liang and his wife to believe PM and his ministers on asset values? Exposed: Flaws in PM’s HDB spin 

 

And Jun Liang should also worry about the trade war between China and Trump because a slow down in China is terrible for us: we more affected than the rest of Asean:  PAP needs strong Chinese economic growth.

 

Cynical Investor

Cynical Investor blogs at Thoughts of a Cynical Investor

 

 

 

 

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28 Responses to “Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?”

  • Straight "A"s Marlboro Tan:

    Jun Liang is a fool for buying the oldest lease at 700K… it should be worth less than 70K. If u are daft, then dont blame others… blame yrself

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  • Kong lan wei:

    I trust Kim jong un more.

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  • $0 not lease end b 40y b4:

    Before the wave of alert swept thru Malaysia on its way to Brazil, Singaporeans in HDB may be able to sell of their HDBeven when lease is 30 y left becos there r still buters n bank loan is difficult but no impossible as long as there os buyer n the estate is at popular location. After the wave n Singaporeans saw what happen in Malaysia with a new regime like every new regime has the citizens interest in the mind just like PAP the five of 5 years after LKY publicly shed his crocodile tears for Singapore but by no mean fake for his dream of Li Dynasty as LHY/lLWL realized only when they r discarded with change of emperor like those depicted in Dynasty Drama from PRC, HK n Taiwan. The wave alert some pondering in a few who starts to worry about their children future which goes from dim to total darkness with the growing arrogance , greed n openly flaunting their pro foreigner attitude evidenced by the secruity threatening presence of foreigners to a political mindless ratio of Foreigners/ cituzenry exceeding 1 n the diminishinh availabe university admission places for the citizens due to the senseless hugh number of scholarship supported foreign students who the pap govt obliges to accomodate them at citizen expence of education poortubity n state funds.. Instead of using the state fund to reduces the increasing heavy financial burden of citizens, they use it to provide free education n living of foreigners. Now it is education opportunity n then followed by employment opportunity as evidenced by pap call to citizens not to strive for academic excellence as dropouts n gangsters could just as easy to become millionaires n successful. A minister even promise there will be ministers wuthout degree. Even primary citizen boys r talking aloud the es pap is spreading n r getting so furious to use expletives screwing up the papic traitors n traitoresses.

    Yes now HDB will have $0 worth with the awakening n bamks r not going to deal with negative business by giving out loans for less than 40 y lease as buyers will not be avaiable n the properly is worthless. Perhaps some arm twisting,but business is business. Plp only if there is gains n not losses. Believing pap garbs is stidity only to regret. Only solution is VTzo n ask for new lease. The ppower of bargains is in the hand of voters but pap is well know for nit honouring its election promises n even vengeful n vindictive to kpkbs.

    VTO VTO See what lies in the darkness. Mahathir first action was to screen all exits for good reasons!

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  • Anyone Know the Land Price?:

    How many % is the Land Price; say when a new HDB flat is bought at $300K?

    Anyone knows?

    Perhaps the Land Price can be returned to the lesse at the end of the 99 years’ lease?

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Jun Liang needs to have his head examined by a Shrink! $700k for a 50-year old HDB flat in 2013 seems way-over-the-top. And spending another $100k worth of renovations is another crazy “What-were-they-thinking-of?” amount. At a total of $800k, he would be much better off applying for a BTO flat with freash 99-year lease in the boondocks/pay installments for a car or book an Executive Condo than buying an ancient flat at Selegie House. Don’t know what to say about such financially challenged idiots who are the Greater Fools?
    And I did predict that people paying $1 million over for HDB flats were going to be the Greater Fools. Once the realization of “Lease Decay” hit the people’s minds, there’s no way that the market will return to “Asset Enhancement: mode ie. pay way above the market value let alone consider future price appreciation. Buyers will look at HDB flats on a depreciated basis ie. consider Deep Price Deflation basis [HDB resale price keeps on dropping] or hold off until the whomever seller blinks, surrenders & becomes a price taker at disposal value!
    Then again, I’ve heard people paying $800k for a Tiong Bahru flat which is even older. With such short time left in their lease, it’s a strong possibility that PAP govt/HDB will allow the lease to lapse before taking it back. There no strong incentive to implement SERS unless there is political pressure at the Ballot Box. That means those buyers will not get a cent back from their purchase prices. And they are “trapped” in their ageing HDB flats because no one would want to buy unless at giveaway prices.
    PAP Asset Enhancement hoax had been exposed & a lot of people who overpaid for their HDB homes are staring into a deep abyss. And the PAP will be facing a hostile electorate in the coming election come 2020 or earlier. VERS would not be a panacea because HDB will profiteer on HDB dwellers financial predicament. Know your power – vote wisely to achieve affirmative action or else be forever be trodden under foot by the PAP. Send some of those million dollar Ministers into early retirement like the duo of George Yeo & Lim Hwee Hua in 2011. Are they earning millions of dollars now in the Private Sector? Meh! I don’t think so!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Anyone Know The Land Price

    IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT PRICE YOU PAID FOR THE LAND when you bought a BTOs at $300K.

    At the end of the 99-yr lease, it is worth INFINITELY much more. Why? Because land is INDESTRUCTIBLE and is always LIMITING of supply relative to demand of a growing population, so land value in nominal terms will rise to infinity.

    But the problem is that the G never revokes the Land Acquisition Act and it can still forcibly acquire your landed property at its valuation, so you still might end up getting a pittance for your precious land.

    Without the acquisition, your land might worth millions in 99 year time, but will PAPpys pays you millions for your land then?

    What matter most is this – since you paid for the land, you must be entitled to demand the legal title of land ownership and if every peasants jointly owns the land, PAPpys wants to acquire it by force, it might ended up challenged in the courtroom for years maybe decades.

    Just imagine PAPpys fight all the peasants in the courtroom over their rightful land ownerships and also bidding for their votes in election – they lose! So they negotiate a fair deal then but peasants must first insist that the title deed admits the land belongs to BTO buyers first!

    Anyone Know the Land Price?: How many % is the Land Price; say when a new HDB flat is bought at $300K?

    Anyone knows?

    Perhaps the Land Price can be returned to the lesse at the end of the 99 years’ lease?

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  • Malaysia boleh Singapore bodoh:

    Singaporeans are in denial. They refuse to accept that HDB flats are basically a depreciating asset. This depreciation has been masked for decades by a property bubble. Lawrence Wong tried to bring sanity to HDB flats by stating the TRUTH that HDB flats will be worth ZERO at the end of the 99-year lease.

    So the fair value of resale HDB flats is determined by the REMAINING lease. To translate this to $ is easy. Use the price of a NEW flat from HDB of the SAME SIZE and in the SAME ESTATE as a reference point. Multiply this by the remaining lease and divide the product by 99. The fair value of the resale flat cannot be higher than the result because the resale flat is older.

    So Singaporean should stop dreaming and try to get their CPF money out of their flat asap by using HDB’s Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS). Money in CPF earns 2.5% per annum. Money kept in HDB flat depreciates around 1% per year as remaining lease gets shorter and shorter.

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  • HarderTruths:

    The question is really “Will $G locals vote oppo even after all the mess they are in because of pappies”?

    Answer is definitely “No”. Regardless of their puppy-like status, 70% locals will definitely vote pappies.

    Why? Because being ballsless is a way of life that cannot be changed.

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  • rukidding:

    No worries lah…got “VERs” Koyok to sell again mah ?

    Your only issue is…..Do you still TRUST Pinky and Gang ????

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  • Python 5:

    these ppl fell for the property agents’ sales gimmick along with LKY’s asset enhancement lie.

    go look at some of the oldest HDB flats ….
    blocks 20+ at Eunos Cres,
    blocks 70+ at Indus road,
    Block 1 and 2 Redhill close.
    Blocks 1 and 2 Toa payoh lor 7.
    Blocks 1-10 at Old airport road(close down)
    10 floor blocks at macpherson estate.

    look at the physical age of these flats.

    you believe the gimmicks and lies of property agents and LKY then please go
    pay $500-900k for those flats on a 30 year loan and then brag and haolian to ppl around you about it.

    Stupid is knowing the truth, seeing the truth but still believing the lies.

    If you cannot make them see the light, make them feel the heat.

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  • Python 5:
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  • Python 5:

    Rabble-rouser:
    Jun Liang needs to have his head examined by a Shrink! $700k for a 50-year old HDB flat in 2013 seems way-over-the-top. …..

    wait for those who bought bishan at $1 million. how old is bishan estate now??? wikipedia states Bishan is completed at 1989. 30 years old liao.

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  • Python 5:

    $700k for a 50-year old HDB flat.
    how much was that flat in 1963 being sold for to public??
    $30-40k??

    1963, say its sold for $35k.
    55 year old flat.
    44 years remaining lease.
    2018, 35k x 44/99 = $15.5k

    use 30year loan of $700k to buy something that is worth only $15.5k today and still depreciating and they think it can appreciate until $1.5 to 2million?

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  • Python 5:

    this Jun Liang guy, what is he working as?? property agent???

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    The current situation isn’t HDB flats being a depreciating asset. It had been a depreciating asset all along. The Asset Enhancement Policy of the PAP govt allied with the majority of voters who fallen for PAP’s siren song is the cause. Minister Lawrence Wong wasn’t wrong to point out the “Lease Decay” but why didn’t someone within the PAP mentioned it earlier is THE QUESTION?
    They were the ones who perpetuated the myth of Asset Enhancement in HDB flats & the entire Real Estate Agency industry went along pushing dreams of riches because a higher HDB transacted price mean higher commission. The issue of Asset Enhancement Policy on HDB flats first came up after GE 1991. The PAP lost 4 seats to the opposition (SDP – 3 seats; WP – 1 seat)
    Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_1991
    In the aftermath of the 1991 elections, the PAP govt came up with their Asset Enhancement Policy for HDB flats with the announcement of the Main Upgrading Program (MUP). And the kicker was that Opposition-held HDB wards would be last in line for Upgrading. The rest is history as they say.
    - Cont’d –

    Python 5: wait for those who bought bishan at $1 million. how old is bishan estate now??? wikipedia states Bishan is completed at 1989. 30 years old liao.

    Malaysia boleh Singapore bodoh:
    Singaporeans are in denial. They refuse to accept that HDB flats are basically a depreciating asset. This depreciation has been masked for decades by a property bubble. Lawrence Wong tried to bring sanity to HDB flats by stating the TRUTH that HDB flats will be worth ZERO at the end of the 99-year lease.

    So the fair value of resale HDB flats is determined by the REMAINING lease. To translate this to $ is easy. Use the price of a NEW flat from HDB of the SAME SIZE and in the SAME ESTATE as a reference point. Multiply this by the remaining lease and divide the product by 99. The fair value of the resale flat cannot be higher than the result because the resale flat is older.

    So Singaporean should stop dreaming and try to get their CPF money out of their flat asap by using HDB’s Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS). Money in CPF earns 2.5% per annum. Money kept in HDB flat depreciates around 1% per year as remaining lease gets shorter and shorter.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    It had been almost 30 years since PAP’s Asset Enhancement Policy had been announced. But to be fair to the PAP, there had been hiccups along the way. The Main Upgrading (MUP) only had a short-term appreciative effect on HDB resale flat values. The HDB resale price index peaked around 1996/97 & began to fall after that. In 1998, the Asian Financial Crisis hit & HDB resale price had fallen further due to migration of MNCs to China & the subsequent hollowing out of S’pore’s manufacturing economy.
    Between 1999 to 2006, HDB resale price index were essentially trending flat & many HDB resale transactions were done below valuation ie. sold at a loss. Many lost a fair portion of their CPF savings after selling their HDB flats during this period.
    Roy Ngerng had written a good article on this topic. Read it at your own risk because it is controversial & you need to do your own fact-finding: [BTW Roy included a very informative chart on Private & HDB resale price indices]
    Link: https://thehearttruths.com/2014/08/18/the-real-history-of-the-cpf-and-the-singapore-economy/2/
    It was around 2004 when the PAP’s Open Door immigration policy began in earnest. By 2006/07, the HDB resale price index began to lift off as the 1st wave of migrants (mostly PRCs) acquired PR status & began to buy resale HDB flats then allowed under HDB rules. At the same time, HDB began to liberialise the rental regulations relating to HDB flats. Both these 2 factors fuelled the HDB resale price index to new highs. These had coincided under the watch of then-MND Minister Mah Bow Tan. But the rules had changed drastically by GE 2011 – when PAP lost their 1st GRC! It was the people’s backlash against PAP’s unbridled immigration policies! HDB rules against PR buying HDB resale flats (under a time embargo); rental restrictions against PR renting their flats & subsequent greater enforcements & investigation against renting to illegal migrants & multiple tenants all affected HDB resale prices resulting by 2013/14 – a clear decline in HDB resale price index. See charts on link below.
    Link: https://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/infoweb/doc/resale-price-index-chart
    HDB resale price index had been flat-lining eversince partly because of 2 reasons:
    * Foreign intake numbers had levelled off & were being controlled;
    * Locals channeled into the rising BTO market with easier HDB loans & grants/subsidies whereas HDB resale buyers had to seek bank financing.
    - Cont’d -

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    One of the reasons for the SG$1 million over HDB resale flats was the easy lending policies of banks then (for matured estates Bishan/ Queenstown/ Commonwealth); the segmented higher-priced HDB DBSS flats like Pinnacle @ Duxton; City View @ Boon Keng, etc. which then had few sellers but many buyers after sellers’ MOP had expired.
    Yet the contrast couldn’t be that greater between HDB resale market & the Private Property EnBloc Market?
    The over SG$1 million transaction for resale HDB flat had no govt nor HDB intervention. But the red-hot private property EnBloc process had been halted just 18 months with govt cooling measures. Why?
    The BIGGEST PROBLEM now with HDB resale flats aren’t depreciation per se but rather DEFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS. Buyers are holding back in anticipation of pushing prices even lower in the future. And Deflationary Expectations have severe consequences for the entire S’pore Economy because the HDB resale market was a significant source of liquidity for the entire S’pore property market as well as a source for consumption means. Let me explain by giving you some examples:
    * DOWNGRADING – HDB 2 room Flexi in oversupply as ageing HDB downgraders can’t monetized their current flat to realise enough liquidity for consumption, let along buy HDB’s 2 room Flexi (now collecting dust);
    * UPGRADING – Current HDB dwellers can’t sell their HDB flats to generate enough equity for a private condo. The whole Condo market freezes as potential buyers can’t sell their existing HDB properties for a good price while the Condo market goes into oversupply mode & developers scrambled for buyers by offering higher discounts each subsequent launch (Again, Deflationary & bad for earlier buyers);
    * CONSUMPTION – With HDB resale market in DEEP FREEZE, consumption would be deeply affected as S’pore’s Eat ‘N Shit Economy which depends on consumption to turn the wheels (of High rentals & Borrowings). Marginal retailers suddenly close shop never to reopen again – a lot of retail staff in S’pore were foreigners;
    * CPF – With a deep freeze, CPF Board won’t have any liquidity coming in nor going out. They might as well retrenched a good number of their staff because most of them will have no work to do.
    * REITs – Mall REITS will have many empty retail space, sudden shop closures to contend with. Shareholders will be surprised to see their DPU suddenly shrink to near zero!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Malaysia Boleh Singapore Bodoh

    OI OI OI, ME THINKS YOU GOT THIS ONE WRONG – leaseback is NOT and can NEVER be the solution. Just imagine this of frequent likelihood in reality – the HDB leaseback is the last 30 years, that means what is ‘NOT LEASED BACK” is what the gap between the residual lease and what is actually leased back. That is to say, if a residual lease is 68 years and HDB leesee leased back 30 yrs to HDB, he/she is trapped with 38 years of residual lease “unhedged” of this leaseback cover. If he/she strike the mortality lottery tomorrow, who is buying the residual 38 year lease or HDB confiscate that 38 years for free? That is to say, the HDB lessee paid for 99 year rent in advance (and land too, mind you), stayed for 32 years, leased back 30 yr to HDB and lose 38 years of unutilised lease not consumed or utilized? Or in this distressed circumstances, HDB might step forward and offer the deceased children $1 to buy over the 38 years of un-utilised residual lease not covered in its leaseback package?

    HDB IS SILENT ON THIS DARKNESS OF THIS HOLLOW.

    Even the children of the deceased might not be eligible to buy over the 38 years of residual lease. Or they might not want to be stuck with 38 year lease instead of the preferred applying for their own 99 year BTO lease!

    I think this is why HDB leaseback is NOT popular with peasants. It is another CON job.

    Malaysia boleh Singapore bodoh: So Singaporean should stop dreaming and try to get their CPF money out of their flat asap by using HDB’s Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS). Money in CPF earns 2.5% per annum. Money kept in HDB flat depreciates around 1% per year as remaining lease gets shorter and shorter.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Python 5

    Bishan I recalls is cemetery land filled with burial plots, am I right? For those who paid $1 million for this burial plot, they got what they bargained for. In law and in business world, reality will rise from the burial plot to rule the outcome – the dummies paid over $1 million for this privileged plot of land (no legal title to that either) don’t deserve much sympathy.

    SEX IN A TIGHT SPOT PAPpys in 2011 GE promises to spend billions of dollars to build an artificial river, turning Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC into a new Suzhou of the East better than the one in China and Venice. It was election lolly baiting for votes – the PAPpys got their votes and the peasants got the stupidity slap of a life-time mortgage serf slavery. Such peasants are stupid to impossibility – too stupid to even begin to discover they are a stupid lot of even believing the fantasy that somehow the imagined of hallucination dreams of some 50 bags of cement, 3 tonnes of concrete sand and maybe 500 bricks will at lease expiry make them all multi-millionaires as long as they vote PAPpys.

    The other font of stupidity can be found in the legacy of P*nis-on_Dudston in TP – Past Tense promised everlasting glowing wealth accumulation on such public housing won’t be coming back to honor his promise thus made. Good luck to those who paid $1 million and over. Where is the next sucker coming from?

    Python 5: wait for those who bought bishan at $1 million. how old is bishan estate now??? wikipedia states Bishan is completed at 1989. 30 years old liao.

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  • Bapak:

    When you are a daft, you are always an A1 daft.

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  • opposition dude:

    The younger generation who have already bought resale flats which are now nearing 40 or over might well vote against PAP. I have had an ex user of mine also buy a resale 3 room 2 blocks away from me back in 2013 for between #360k to $380k. Her property would have depreciated a bit by now but nothing changes the fact that the couple still have to pay off the loan whilst not being able to profit should they sell now.

    The only thing we aren’t sure of is how many of the younger generation have bought old flats in Toa Payoh, Queenstown and all those estates built in the 70s.

    I can see why goondu Loong wants to hold the election next year since it’s better to lose some votes while the problem is still small and growing than wait until the second glaf of 2020 when it would be worse. At least if he does lose seats here and there he would assume his party would still have the majority and use the next 4 years to announce more wayangs on all those older flats.

    Remember, an election cycle is 4 years or so these days. Therefore if you add 4 years onto 2019 then all those flats built from 1980 to 1983 will be 40 years by the end of the next election cycle. And this is when the merdeka generation will be affected. Add on the fact that a good number of flats were built in the 1980s and you can see just how many flats will be in trouble in the next decade alone.

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  • LIONS:

    Prices of HDBs are simply irrational n exuberant.
    It is the govt’s duty to regulari$e n regulate HDB mkt more effectively n SINCERELY.

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  • Land Price = Car Scrap Value:

    When you scrap your 10 years’ old car, you will get back the scrap value.

    So when your HDB 99 years’ old lease is up, you should be entitled to at least the Land Price.

    Right?

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  • HDB never depreciates:

    Whichever PAP guy promised you that has never been truthful to you.

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  • apek:

    The siMple answer is : vote for PAP, follow out manifesto , we make you poor eventually.

    =Who wants to be poor ? Vote PAP! VOTE PAP!!!

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  • oxygen:

    @ HDB never depreciates

    FACILE ASSERTION, nothing left to be said.

    HDB never depreciates: Whichever PAP guy promised you that has never been truthful to you.

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  • RSHK1234:

    Wondering is it becos of all these HDB hoohaa that MND people not opted into PAP CEC ?

    MND is definitely much more important than some other Ministries.

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  • Bobo:

    There are many goons chose not to believe the fact annouced. They believed strongly that PAP will do something to save them. So they will continue to trust and vote for PAP. OMG.

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