With vested interests in charge, failure is guaranteed

Recently Charles Hugh Smith, the well-known alternative philosopher and financial blogger wrote an article entitled “Vested Interests in Charge = Guaranteed Failure” and in it he noted: –

“vested interests must suppress, undermine or co-opt structural innovation, which threatens to obsolete the status quo” and “Cartels and monopolies are especially vulnerable to structural innovation”

The article also goes on to demonstrate how political power alone cannot stop change when the forces of economics get involved.

This they eventually do, and the history books are full of examples, because Vested Interests eventually get to an incompetent stage where they are arrogant. lazy, lose any incentive to provide quality and continually raise prices/taxes until a national/business breaking point is reached where varied painful outcomes occur as change is forced upon them and they collapse, or they are ousted/replaced.

What happens when politics and economics are held in the same hands?

Then you get a situation in South East Asia and the other former Colonies as described in a very thought-provoking Asia Times article, “The solution for China’s prodigal son” by Joseph Nathan where the line between politicians and tycoons became blurred and eventually cronyism, nepotism and corruption took deep root.

We have seen the result. Vested interests pushed the people to breaking point and through a combination of “street democracy” and the ballot box the old guards have been removed. The latest being the major confrontation developing in Hong Kong where, due to their two-system heritage, they do not have the same access to the ballot box in the way Indonesia and Malaysia did and so are far more “street” focused.

Now I don’t believe in “street democracy” unless there is absolutely no choice because the longer the incumbent Vested Interests remain recalcitrant the worse the outcome becomes for everyone. This despite the myriad examples of chaos and destruction we have seen around the world whenever an uprising happened, which included for the vested interests as well, while they persisted in trying to force their wills against a national will to change from the people.

Lessons from the corporate world

Now in my recent post on the People’s Action Party (PAP) being off target I talked about a concept called “Enlightened Self Interest”. This is where you do the right thing not necessarily because you are being altruistic but because you get a benefit from doing it. This is a way of thinking now coming back in to favour within the capitalist world today as companies adapt to a disruptive space where old monopoly or vested interest power no longer serves them, and they must adapt or fail.

Traditionally companies have been the ultimate top down autocratic dictatorships so are a very good model for governments that practice this way of thinking, operation and treating their people.

It is a model I hope both sides in the ongoing Hong Kong dispute can think of. There is much distance between what mainland China wants and the Hong Kong people want but if they can have mutual respect and understanding for one and other then a status quo point can be reached that benefits both before too much chaos and destruction is wrought.

And of course, the resolution of this latest iteration of a national uprising is for them to decide internally without any external influences for it is their lives and economic futures at stake.

As Joseph’s article describes there have now been what he calls “progressive uprisings” in many of the old colonial outposts as the people have eventually ousted or changed the Vested Interests.

Indonesia, Malaysia and now Hong Kong have become part of a worldwide movement against small groups gaining power and wealth by imposing their wills on the wider people through a combination of political and financial monopoly under the guise of globalisation, central banking and a drive towards unelected transnational governance sold to the masses by captured media and controlled information.

It has happened in America, The Middle East, South America, Europe and now Asia as the old world “Elite” model is rejected because the information of the truths of the world are no longer solely in their hands and the worsening effects of these monopolies on the everyday lives of the people is becoming unbearable for many.

There is a tidal wave of change sweeping the globe and it has lessons I hope the wiser heads in China can learn from. The age of dictatorship is coming to an end an age of enlightenment is emerging with the only question really being how painful will the birth be and not whether it can be stopped or not?

The wise will make it as painless and mutually beneficial as possible, the stupid and stubborn will cause suffering for all.

But what of Singapore?

For Singapore we have the same cronyism, nepotism and unaccountability that the other old colonial nations had just manifested under a different guise. Our “men in white” have become the “white men” of old regardless of how they pretend to be otherwise doing their best to hold monopoly power of politics and finance and stifle any democratic move to the contrary.

But like vested Interests elsewhere they are reaching the stage of incompetence and the tidal wave of change is reaching our shores.

Our question now will be: “Will our Progressive Uprising be restricted to a progress of consciousness and actions taken solely in the ballot box to effect change or will it eventually be something worse?”

With all the new and expanded laws we have seen, the surveillance system being put in place, the expanded police force and the oppressive moves recently against members of civil society, including members of the “first family”, we see them digging in their heels to resist so the signs are not good that there is much enlightenment or wisdom on the PAP side of the equation.

We however can do our best to have a progressive mental revolution in the people’s minds and have the weight of numbers at the ballot box overwhelm the short sightedness of the incumbents before we end up in the terrible place many countries elsewhere in the world have been and so bring the wisdom from our side.

Let’s work together to bring Singapore painlessly into the 21st century and the global age of enlightenment and say goodbye to nepotism, cronyism and dictatorship once and for all.

It is now the age of true leadership and there is no more place for self-serving rulers. We must collectively state this loudly and clearly and use our votes wisely because to do nothing or worse invites a disaster we can ill afford.

It is definitely a time to be Progressive.

 

Brad Bowyer

 

 

 

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35 Responses to “With vested interests in charge, failure is guaranteed”

  • Oxfam's Looney Tune Sinchiapor:

    The Trickle-Down Dogmatism:

    That the poor who must subsist on table scraps dropped by the rich is best served by providing bigger meals to the dirt-rich. To each his own society.

    But big brother will nationalize your cpf savings for himself.

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  • oxygen:

    TAKE OUT THE PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, THE TOO-POOR SURRENDERED TO FATE/CIRCUMSTANCES AND THE CORRUPT ESTABLISHMENT, practically the whole of Hong Kong turned to “street democracy” against the behemoth of tyrant rule.

    It is an indictment of extreme capitalism and its ruthless total exploitation of the weak and vulnerable of winner take it all – pretending that there is space and survival for the rest beyond simply income inequality. It reminds me of Occupy Wall Street seething underneath “Thatcherism” fantasized delusion of “trickle-down” wealth effect i.e. you support ruthless capitalism, we supply the jobs to feed your stomach and wealth accumulation as if the rest of the world either doesn’t exists and competitive weeding doesn’t matter. The Arab Spring is not unique nor its spread thereafter in the Middle East- suppressed only temporarily by Saudi giving away billion of $$$ to its Arab neighbors to keep smothering flame from ignited into violent revolution burning eventually their own palace. Al Queda instigated violence tells of extremity of lost hope, desperation and brutality beyond human imagination. Brexit is milder form alongside Trumpism and HK street democracy.

    LIKE IT OR NOT, the FAKE promise of “LAFFER CURVE” delusion/deception of egalitarian survival has “educated” even the peasants of street democracy in HK even if most of them don’t read print media or social media. THEY KNOW REALITY FOR WHAT IT IS in their life experience and came out IN FULL ABUNDANCE AND UNISON to shout ALOUD “NO”.

    The stable state of begonne era is GONE forever – except for the self-delusional. I haven’t read Atlas Shrugged novel but I think Ayn Rand is dead right. She wrote from a struggling life experienced learning. Her father’s lucrative business was confiscated by state power in the wake of Bolshevik Revolution forcing her to leave Russia to migrate to US after pangs of starvation hunger. Extreme totalitarianism on top of extreme capitalism DOES NOT WORK AND UNSUSTAINABLE.

    Arab Spring revolution, Brexit, Occupy Wall Street, now Hong Kong street democracy says CHANGE HAS ARRIVED FOR THE ENTIRE WORLD and Trump is igniting that smothering fire of ME FIRST, FIACK THE REST EVEN IF THAT IS KNOWN TO ALL NOT THE ANSWER.

    The establishment has got to bend – to listen and to work with the masses. OPPRESSION ON TOP OF INCOMPETENCE AND FAILING is the sure route to self-destruction.

    EVEN PEASANT FOOLS OF AH BENG, AH SENG, AH LIAN AND AH HUAY have woke up. HK street democracy proves it. Stupid peasants can see Ayn rand’s ojective truth, fiack the false gospel of faith and emotional vote baiting, I believe.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    THE ONLY WAY LEE-jiapore will survive is – small govt, economic freedom and liberty of individual of all thoughts and enterprise.

    WE FAILED AND FALLING INTO RISKS OF EXTINCTION DECLINE because we are moving in the opposite direction and PAPpypolitics and PAPpynomic is stupidly dictatorial as it is incompetent.

    THE PARASITES CAN NEITHER BUILD ASSETS (economy) OR TRADE ASSETS (investing) SUCCESSFULLY.
    [oxygen - How an innovation panel can help to make changes]

    Politics & govts are failing globally – so obvious! Capital, skills & wealth are shifting to places where the govt is less intrusive, less controlling, where people could get to do what they want & at a lower cost.
    [Rabble-rouser - How an innovation panel can help to make changes]

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  • patriot of TUMASIK:

    For one from a Foreign Land adopting Singapore as your HOME reminds me of the early Pioneers who gave all, they had to make this little Island in The Sun a success…

    You, Brad, are a Modern Pioneer & Patriot…and I salute you coming from the Generation who saw it all starting from the fifties

    May the Millennial and the Pioneer/Merdeka Generation be reminded that building a NATION needs Patriots and sacrifices NOT Big Mouth talking SHIT half the time while laughing to the banks monthly!!!

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  • Harder Truths:

    A few comments on this piece.

    $G is an island and only because of its strategic location at this point in time is considered important for the transit of oil trade through the straits of Malacca. $G has two casinos famously known for international money laundering.

    $G has nothing to offer the world besides these. Absolutely nothing.

    Think about that for a moment – $G’s politics and indeed history plus statehood came about because of economics – not the other way around.

    Countries in such delicate positions sooner or later have collapsed due to military or economic sanctions or loss of the economic power now in place. The same history you mention teaches this fact.

    Very soon China will diversify its oil away from this military chokepoint in the Straits. $G is considered working for China’s adversary – the United States – by choice. The political rulers of this tiny island believe they are somebodies in the world area.

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  • Harder Truths:

    (cont’d)

    Besides this temporary economic advantage, $G has no real wealth to speak of.

    Hence the loss of the oil trade will mean a collapse of the banks and other financial institutions and backers. Inverstors will create a run on the $G doillar, similar to what happened to the Thai Baht and Malaysian Ringgit during the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis.

    The fools in charge will try to suck more and more money from the people. It has already started as their lavish lifestyles cannot be maintained unless they take more yet more in the future.

    Can the government continue to support the economy through government projects and more FT and money printing like the Federal Reserve? It sure appears they are going this way. Sooner or later this will create a third-world society (if it hasn’t already) while the cost of living will skyrocket while jobs pay less and less.

    So you see – the fate of $G is already assured by its own short-sighted policies. The majority like it this way. They will find out everything has a price – even stupidity.

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  • Even Harder Truths:

    No sweat! If someone keep trying to push SG around, we will take side, we will offer to host the US 7th fleet. If SG could prosper by being UK Navel base before, SG can also prosper by being a US Naval base.

    After all, we already share the same weapon and munition system, same fighter jets platforms.

    What more do you want ?

    Harder Truths:

    $G has nothing to offer the world besides these. Absolutely nothing.

    Very soon China will diversify its oil away from this military chokepoint in the Straits. $G is considered working for China’s adversary – the United States – by choice. The political rulers of this tiny island believe they are somebodies in the world area.

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  • never vote pap:

    For Singapore we have the same cronyism, nepotism and unaccountability that the other old colonial nations had just manifested under a different guise. Our “men in white” have become the “white men” of old regardless of how they pretend to be otherwise doing their best to hold monopoly power of politics and finance and stifle any democratic move to the contrary.

    So true. And the cronyism nepostism unaccountability and now also thieving all legalized via a pliant parleeement.

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  • oxygen:

    IN TODAY’S BUSINESS WORLD, the strategic choice seems to be

    - disruptive of the status quo or
    - be disrupted by the incumbent dominant force.

    At the broader societal level, the street democracy in HK culminated in the intrusion and occupation of its legislative chamber is symptomatic of peasants’grim realisation that their very own survival choice is reduced to

    - disrupting the establishment of vested interest or
    - the establishment of vested interest will continually invade/intrude and disrupt their lives already underway hideously.

    THE PASSIVE WILL SIMPLY WITHER AND EXTINCT, the active clamoring for change has at least one last survival fight chance, however small or grim that may be.

    IT IS CHANGE CHANGE AND CHANGE OF THE RULING AND THE RULED ON A CONSTANT MOVE.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Singapore is the model for modern state capitalism. But before that many countries tried state capitalism specially the dictators in Muslims countries. Kamal in Turkey, Ayub Khan in Pakistan and many like them tried that model. They created the crony capitalism of the worst form.

    Singapore has been under the dominant rule of the People’s Action Party (PAP) since the first election after its independence in 1965. Major data-sets in political science indicate that it has the characteristics of electoral authoritarianism. In 2011, the PAP gained its lowest share of the popular vote in the Parliamentary General Election in history and this result gave rise to debate about the possibility of political change in the near future although in 2015, they restored a level of support from the voters more in line with previous years.

    In Singapore, the middle class seems to prefer plural politics in order to maintain the accountability of the PAP government. The major frustrations of citizens towards the government concern the increased cost of housing, congestion in public transportation, inflation, the high and rising cost of living and lower social mobility, all of which disproportionately affect the living standards of the middle class. The PAP government bears responsibility for these socio-economic problems because the society and economy are strongly managed by them. It is believed that political plurality is needed to keep a check on the government and to pressure them to respond to the citizens’ needs.

    As the size of the middle class grows, the stratification structure changes and they’re expected to mitigate the conflict between the elite and non-elite, and to bring about socio-eonomic stability. And with higher education, is also seen as holding the values of democratic rule. However, in contrast, the new structuralists emphasize on income inequality of each country, rather than the level of GDP per capita, as the driver of political changes, and view the lower income class as the key player in democratization. Their argument is constructed on the game theoretic situation where different classes play strategic games over the redistribution of wealth. Widening income inequality is also pointed out as a source of dissatisfaction with the status quo. The changes in the Gini coefficient for households, before taxes and transfers, based on Singaporean government’s statistics. Inequality increased steadily through 2007, and remained at the same level until 2012.

    Authoritarian governments can indeed bring great change, and sometimes that change is exceedingly wise. But the lack of competition eventually will lead to that same unchecked ability to force change to be used for policies far less wise. Consider the case of South Korea.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    cont’d…

    In the long presidency of Park Chung-Hee in the 1960s and 70′s, we see a similar type of authoritarian dynamism, a president who valued pragmatism over human rights, and successfully drove the economy forward to overtake the north. As with Lee, it is beyond question that Park’s authoritarian rule greatly contributed to South Korea’s present prosperity. The difference is that South Korea gradually realized that its authoritarian institutions were no longer needed, and student protests proved the tipping point. In the late 1990s Kim Dae Jung, the nemesis of the establishment, even gained the presidency. Now, Korea is a healthy multi-party democracy, and its economy remains in excellent shape. I hope that Singapore will soon move in the direction of South Korea. Lee has done his service, as Park did his service. But, it is time to move forward and do greater things.

    In the 1970s one was skeptical about the argument that the authoritarianism and forced-march industrialization in the Asian tigers would be worthwhile in the long run because the ultimate result would be more widespread prosperity and hence a more open and democratic society. By now, the record of Taiwan and South Korea (and many other countries to some extent) shows that the optimistic model can work. On the other hand, Singapore still stands out as a country where prosperity and a growing middle class has not yet resulted in a transition to a more democratic and open society. Perhaps now it will finally start to change, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I wonder how many people — in Singapore or elsewhere — still really care about democracy.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    S’pore’s Economic viability was first recognized by the British (one, Stamford Raffles from the East India Company) who bought it from the Johor Sultanate in 1819 for a mere amount. S’pore’s rise under the British colonial rule came about simply of it’s Strategic Location. In the early days of S’pore, it was the Spice Trade – exotic spices which could only come from the Indonesia Islands and highly demanded by wealthy Europeans & royalty. The spices enhanced the European foods flavours, helped their digestion & were highly demanded by their chefs of the day. The Peranakans & the Arab traders were among the earliest class to benefit under the Spice trade.
    The Peranakans were the descendants of Chinese sailors during Admiral Cheng Ho’s South East Asia voyages who left their ship, settled & intermarried with Indigenous Malay women; they became conversant with Bahasa Melayu & were able to interact with them. The British relied on the Peranakan businessmen as their liaison & commission agents while the Malay aristocrats appointed Peranakans as compradors or kapitan representing them in trade with the British. The Perankans were the Elites of their day. Their culture speaks of finery in clothing: Nyonya outfit called the Sarong Kebaya consisting of embroided silk blouses, best batik sarongs, handcrafted beaded slippers, etc; the famous colourful Peranakan porcelain bowls & plates adorned with lucky symbols of bats, peonies, butterflies and the phoenix; the famous architecture of Peranakan houses which still can be seen along Joo Chiat; the famous & exquisite Perankan cuisine using those aromatic spices in abundance which were craved by the Europeans. History speaks for itself. Alas, the Peranakan culture is near-extinct in S’pore – their unique architectural houses demolished by urban renewal; Nyonya lovingly cultivated food recipes lost through senseless progress & time stresses, etc.
    The Arab families (Aljunied, Alkaff, Alasagoff Et al) who once owned the choicest waterfront lands in S’pore – from Beach Road (Kampong Bugis) all the way to Telok Blangah (mosque opposite Vivocity) as well as many other areas. Shenton Way was once in the ownership of the Arabs. What’s left today were the mentioned Arab names that adorned S’pore’s landmarks.
    The most galling attempt was S’pore govt’s revisionist history being taught at schools whitewashing the pre-PAP era to that of a “fishing village”!

    Harder Truths: Think about that for a moment – $G’s politics and indeed history plus statehood came about because of economics – not the other way around.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    How true! Look at SGX bourse capitalisation of listed stocks universe – it has halved within a decade eroded by more delistings than IPOs, contained loads of Zombie stocks (trading beneath 1 cent) & had a long list of suspended & deleted stocks in the Stock inventory.
    REITs which now populate the SGX aren’t true equities of business enterprise nor emerging growth companies. They are asset play & cash dispensing (from rents) vehicles which are constrained by the consumption side of the economy. The good years of rapid rent increases & rent space maximization looks to be over! In fact, there are increasing pockets of vacant spaces with no take-up interest in fringe areas & even for Orchard Road localities. Something is wrong in S’pore!
    S’pore Property investment looks dicey at the moment. Property Prices have been stagnant since 2013 (toughest cooling measures enacted). 2017 saw a brief growth spurt spurred on by Developers’ En Bloc purchases & attempts to stir up the S’pore property market. But the euphoria has since died.
    Bloomberg had came out with a recent report stating 24,000 vacant apartments looking for buyers with another 40,000 in the pipeline. Some skeptical observers think that it could be even higher as S’pore developers are notorious for their sleigh of hand tricks & fudging over unsold inventory numbers to understate the real oversupply situation.
    Take a leisurely bus ride over to M’sia is enough to shock one senses. S’pore’s cost of living expenses are ridiculously expensive when compared to JB prices. If you were to go further north past KL, M’sia becomes even more cheaper.

    Harder Truths: Besides this temporary economic advantage, $G has no real wealth to speak of.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen Diaz

    WELL SAID, THE DOMINANT POWER PILLAR constantly sought and continuously tighten its grip of domination and control of peasant society.

    Haigen-Diaz: In Singapore, the middle class seems to prefer plural politics in order to maintain the accountability of the PAP government. The major frustrations of citizens towards the government concern the increased cost of housing, congestion in public transportation, inflation, the high and rising cost of living and lower social mobility, all of which disproportionately affect the living standards of the middle class. The PAP government bears responsibility for these socio-economic problems because the society and economy are strongly managed by them. It is believed that political plurality is needed to keep a check on the government and to pressure them to respond to the citizens’ needs.

    BUT IT REFUSES TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE for policy failures and its concealment of policy failures, notably, fake ownership public housing, retirement saving sham, SWF appalling performance incomparable to elsewhere
    and in displacement of accountability responsibility, it piled on with even more brutal pervasive oppression like POFMA.

    It is dangerous – the preservation of vested interest virtually guarantee the NON-SURVIVABILITY of the nation because mistakes are not addressed. One obvious monumental mistake is POFMA – it is one-sided freedom of speech of the ruling and a refusal to consider the obvious contradiction posed of reciprocal expression which could be “right”. That is painfully exposed so quick in the diplomatic bungle and humiliation of pariah-like outcast who saw our proclamation of “invasion” of Cambodia as what they see as “liberation” of that aggrieved hurt and painfully bitter history. We are NOT Cambodia, we did NOT experienced the genocide slaughter, how could we be right of “invasion” as mere spectators of history tragedy, better of “right truths” than those who lived through the barbaric slaughter with museum copy of evidential slaughter took place.

    TRUTH AND FALSITY IN MANY REAL LIFE SITUATIONS ARE MALLEABLE – POFMA IS A LYING CREATURE OF FALSE LEGAL ARCHITECTURE.

    And then there is exempted class where the powerful in domination can lie to the disadvantage of peasantry. WHO SAYS NATURAL GAS PRICES ARE RISING to justify increase of power bills forward. THE EVIDENCE IN THE GLOBAL MARKET PLACE PROVED THAT GAS PRICE IS FALLING DEEPLY AND HAS NO PROSPECT OF RECOVERY FROM ROCK BOTTOM LEVELS.

    AND POFMA PRETENDS NO AWARENESS OF LYING knowing public DECEPTION IN THE PRINT MEDIA??

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble rouser

    SPOT ON! A VIBRANT CAPITAL MARKET bursting with new domestic new glowing listings is evidence of a booming bustling economy. LEE-jiapore is the exact opposite of that in the last decade. Even the market-weighted ST Industrial index is tightly ranged bound indicating that blue-chip stocks barely struggle head above water since the GFC whilst the DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq increased multi-fold in market capitalisation in the same interval. Did any of our SWF invested more equity stake or added new capital into GLC other than forced capital raising? I doubted it – the “house” is not betting on its own “chips”! GLC are either aging rapidly of economic relevance or sinking into slow death certainty – much like the rest of lethargic SGX listings. Of those SME listings in the last 2 decades, any new glowing success in the works of global or regional footprint? I see not.

    And Reits to me is NOT an asset play BUT IT IS A HIGHLY LEVERAGED PROXY Bond bet. It is just a leveraged landlord betting on rental income to stay alive and pay little dividend to its investor. Their valuation (i.e. return for its investors) tank when interest rate rise (bond price fall/rising bond yield). The reverse holds true like the last 6 mths BUT IT IS A MIRAGE as much of its valuation/return simply vaporise if interest rate rise again.

    Reit is not producing its own income by productive effort.

    INVESTING IN REITS IS GAMBLING PER SE, JUST LIKE REAL ESTATE WHICH ITSELF IS A PROXY BET ON BOND MARKET.

    Rabble-rouser: How true! Look at SGX bourse capitalisation of listed stocks universe – it has halved within a decade eroded by more delistings than IPOs, contained loads of Zombie stocks (trading beneath 1 cent) & had a long list of suspended & deleted stocks in the Stock inventory.
    REITs which now populate the SGX aren’t true equities of business enterprise nor emerging growth companies. They are asset play & cash dispensing (from rents) vehicles which are constrained by the consumption side of the economy. The good years of rapid rent increases & rent space maximization looks to be over! In fact, there are increasing pockets of vacant spaces with no take-up interest in fringe areas & even for Orchard Road localities. Something is wrong in S’pore!
    S’pore Property investment looks dicey at the moment. Property Prices have been stagnant since 2013 (toughest cooling measures enacted). 2017 saw a brief growth spurt spurred on by Developers’ En Bloc purchases & attempts to stir up the S’pore property market. But the euphoria has since die

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  • TruBlu:

    In the current world,whats the REAL DIFFERENCE between a govt that practise CAPITALISM or another which embraces COMMUNISM?You see GROWING NUMBERS OF BILLIONAIRE$ from both extremitie$?

    These are just NAMES.

    What the WORLD’S COMMON PEOPLE NEED ARE ELITES WHO CARE FOR THE PEOPLE N NOT THEIR OWN POCKET$?

    Nothing beats LEEders who boast about eating XO CHYE TOW KUEH n sneering at my plate of HAWKER’s plate?
    Nothing worse than LEEders who exclaim they FEEL SO GOOD LOOKING AT THEIR RICH CPF STATEMENTS while picking hid teeth with STOLEN toothpicks?

    Well, so much for names.
    There are many BILLIONAIRE$ IN MIGHTY USA N EVEN MORE IN CHINA?

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  • 革辣单东.念念青:

    oxygen:
    TAKE OUT THE PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, THE TOO-POOR SURRENDERED TO FATE/CIRCUMSTANCES AND THE CORRUPT ESTABLISHMENT, practically the whole of Hong Kong turned to “street democracy” against the behemoth of tyrant rule

    你是怎么得了到这个结论的?

    证据在哪里?是不是胡说八道惯了?

    厉害就好,不要假厉害!

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen & Haigen-Diaz:
    S’pore’s type of governance is beyond Authoritarian but rests upon the sole ideology & single-mindedness cultivated by one late LKY. After Independence & confronted with numerous social & economic issues, the emerged victorious PAP govt with a political mandate had to hit the ground running. Demerger with M’sia threw LKY’s original import-substitution policy & using S’pore Strategic Location as a Focal Point servicing a larger Hinterland. But this form a serious threat to Malay political dominance as S’pore was predominantly majority Chinese & the PAP Chinese dominated. The rest was history.
    Without M’sia, S’pore had to reconfigure themselves seeking economic relevance in a recovering post-WW2 world economy. It came in the form of an economic doctrine devised by a Dutch Post-WW2 Reconstruction Economist named Dr Albert Winsemius. Using his experience derived from Nederland’s own postwar reconstruction efforts – attract Foreign Investment; a good seaport/oil refinery (Rotterdam); an International Airport & entrepot/trading centre (Amsterdam) & a center of excellence (Eindhoven) upgrading its industrial capacity to use higher technological methods, including electronics.
    One particular observation Dr Winsemius noted was the innate intelligence & hard working nature of S’poreans. He was very impressed with our work ethic. The application of the Winsemius economic doctrine meant single-mindedness (LKY qualities – subsequent weakness) & no time for consensus process (PAP political culture) to see it through. The Winsemius economic doctrine proved to wildly successful. But this single-mindedness began to grow into a political culture trait proving to be S’pore’s weakness & fragility each passing decade.
    Over time, this single-mindedness to see policies through without regard for consensus & opinions proved to be an increasing issue between the PAP & their electorate.
    As the electorate matured & S’poreans began to travel/lived abroad for a time, people began to question PAP’s policies. And PAP’s single-mindedness became overwhelmingly defensive – psychological response (over-reaction) to perceived or imagined threat or attack to one’s sense of self.
    Understand this & things become clear!

    oxygen: BUT IT REFUSES TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE for policy failures and its concealment of policy failures, notably, fake ownership public housing, retirement saving sham, SWF appalling performance incomparable to elsewhere
    and in displacement of accountability responsibility, it piled on with even more brutal pervasive oppression like POFMA.

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  • oxygen:

    @ 革辣单东.念念青:

    MATE, IT IS NOT A PRECISE QUANTIFICATION OF NUMBERS, never claims or pretends that was so of exact measure.

    However, media reports has it that on one demonstration outing, some 2 million HKgers were out on the street. Now if you take out my excluded classes, it would be substantially representative of ‘THE REST”.

    My logic and its derivation is simple – if a family of 6 (2 elderly aged parents, a working couple with 2 kids comprising of one undergrad and one in primary school) – YOU DON’T NEED ALL 6 FAMILY TO MARCH ON THE STREET TO PROTEST TO PROVE THE ENTIRE FAMILY’S OBJECTION TO THE EXTRADITION BILL to prove their objection to tyrant rule.

    The undergrad’s participation in protest march is SUFFICIENT PROOF of the entire family’s anger feelings – the primary school kid and the elderly aged parents can’t obviously attend – NO SAFE OF FAST MOVING POTENTIALLY VIOLENT ERUPTING ENVIRONMENT INVOLVING TEAR GAS AND POLICE BRUTALITY IN RETALIATION. THE WORKING COUPLE IS BUSY AT WORK, otherwise busy preparing or buying food for the elderly aged and the kid.

    SO IN AGGREGATE, IF JUST ONE MILLION HKGERS STEPPED OUT AND MARCHED, IT IS IN REALITY OF SUBSTANCE THAT THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF HK IS PROTESTING AGAINST THEIR EXTRADITION LAW!!

    AWESOME INDEED!!!

    革辣单东.念念青: 你是怎么得了到这个结论的?

    证据在哪里?是不是胡说八道惯了?

    厉害就好,不要假厉害!

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Rabble-rouser: Over time, this single-mindedness to see policies through without regard for consensus & opinions proved to be an increasing issue between the PAP & their electorate.
    As the electorate matured & S’poreans began to travel/lived abroad for a time, people began to question PAP’s policies. And PAP’s single-mindedness became overwhelmingly defensive – psychological response (over-reaction) to perceived or imagined threat or attack to one’s sense of self.

    @ Rabble-rouser,

    Bro,
    Also the proliferation in cyber-space which proved lethal, thus – POFMA

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  • 革辣单东.念念青:

    oxygen:
    @ 革辣单东.念念青:

    MATE, IT IS NOT A PRECISE QUANTIFICATION OF NUMBERS, never claims or pretends that was so of exact measure.

    However, media reports has it that on one demonstration outing, some 2 million HKgers were out on the street. Now if you take out my excluded classes, it would be substantially representative of ‘THE REST”.

    My logic and its derivation is simple – if a family of 6 (2 elderly aged parents, a working couple with 2 kids comprising of one undergrad and one in primary school) – YOU DON’T NEED ALL 6 FAMILY TO MARCH ON THE STREET TO PROTEST TO PROVE THE ENTIRE FAMILY’S OBJECTION TO THE EXTRADITION BILL to prove their objection to tyrant rule.

    The undergrad’s participation in protest march is SUFFICIENT PROOF of the entire family’s anger feelings – the primary school kid and the elderly aged parents can’t obviously attend – NO SAFE OF FAST MOVING POTENTIALLY VIOLENT ERUPTING ENVIRONMENT INVOLVING TEAR GAS AND POLICE BRUTALITY IN RETALIATION. THE WORKING COUPLE IS BUSY AT WORK, otherwise busy preparing or buying food for the elderly aged and the kid.

    SO IN AGGREGATE, IF JUST ONE MILLION HKGERS STEPPED OUT AND MARCHED, IT IS IN REALITY OF SUBSTANCE THAT THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF HK IS PROTESTING AGAINST THEIR EXTRADITION LAW!!

    AWESOME INDEED!!!

    根据香港警方的数字,示威的人数远远少于一百万!

    你是用不正确的资料来支持你的论述,可恶!

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  • Balancing Act:

    Even Harder Truths:
    No sweat! If someone keep trying to push SG around, we will take side, we will offer to host the US 7th fleet. If SG could prosper by being UK Navel base before, SG can also prosper by being a US Naval base.

    After all, we already share the same weapon and munition system, same fighter jets platforms.

    What more do you want ?

    When you host two teams on the same island, no one will nuke this place.
    When you have only one, the other can nuke this place without any regard, while doing little pain to the other, as this is not their land.
    We always talk of balancing two things, not one, only an idiot clown prince will try balancing with one… what is there to balance anyway.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Yes & No, Mate!
    REITs can’t classified as Highly Leveraged because there is a SGX mandatory 40% cap on debt on the REIT managers. So what happens are either cash calls via right issues to existing REIT unit holders or REIT unit dilution via unit issue in lieu of cash for asset acquisition to the asset vendor.
    Proxy Bond definition were equities & asset/infrastructure vehicles that replicate fixed interest securities, primarily yield characteristic. They are typically large and stable entities with annuity-style cash flows supporting a predictable and reliable dividends approximating bonds with their interest payments. But bond principal sum are guaranteed at maturity for bond issues unless there are credit defaults. These are Perpetual Instruments with no maturity; price volatility.
    REITs under this definition which can also include stable dividend paying blue chip stocks; & infrastructural funds.
    But REITs have their own characteristics which define their unique & systemic risks:
    * Valuation of the asset portfolio were on the high side – uneven relationship between REIT sponsor (who want to monetize to their advantage) & their REITs vehicle (containing Sponsor’s overvalued assets);
    * Inside the portfolio could contained hidden surprises: (1) declining leasehold properties; (2) ageing buildings in need of huge capital fixes;
    * the biggest elephants in the room – systemic risk & paradigm shifts in the form of online retailing (vs Brick ‘N Mortar Shopping Malls); increasing automation & Artificial Intelligence (disrupting Office, Factories & Logistics structures like warehouses);
    * sensitivity to the credit cycle (interest rates) & also extreme sensitivity to the consumption side of the economy (shopping mall REITS);
    * Office, Factories & Logistics structures are sensitive to investment cycles & trade – we’re into not only a late business cycle but a disruptive era!
    The fear is an APOCALYPTIC VISION of empty, vacant structures with no takers!

    oxygen: And Reits to me is NOT an asset play BUT IT IS A HIGHLY LEVERAGED PROXY Bond bet. It is just a leveraged landlord betting on rental income to stay alive and pay little dividend to its investor. Their valuation (i.e. return for its investors) tank when interest rate rise (bond price fall/rising bond yield). The reverse holds true like the last 6 mths BUT IT IS A MIRAGE as much of its valuation/return simply vaporise if interest rate rise again.

    Reit is not producing its own income by productive effort.

    INVESTING IN REITS IS GAMBLING PER SE, JUST LIKE REAL ESTATE WHICH ITSELF IS A PROXY BET ON BOND MARKET.

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  • oxygen:

    @ 革辣单东.念念青:

    NEITHER YOU NOR I WAS THERE TO COUNT or know the precise number of protesters.

    Of course, the police (read pigs) will seek to understate the true extent of protest participants because it is degrading of the true extent of public resentment against failed puppetry governance and the likely continuation of public resentment against violent conduct of law enforcement captured in camera against otherwise peaceful street democracy. IT WAS THE THUGS LAW ENFORCEMENT shamed. There will be continuing demand for that Carrie Lam to remove her a*se from the public stage.

    There was no obvious leader, people just join the street democracy SPONTANEOUSLY. AND THAT IS TELLING OF TRUE FEELINGS AND EXTENT OF SOCIETAL ANGUISH.

    Whether it was over 1 mln or under 800,000 slightly below, IT IS REAL FIRE OF PUBLIC RESENTMENT AGAINST TYRANT RULE.

    You are disgusting in denial of reality.

    革辣单东.念念青: 根据香港警方的数字,示威的人数远远少于一百万!

    你是用不正确的资料来支持你的论述,可恶!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble rouser

    THANKS FOR THE INFORMATIVE REJOINDER, and yes, the question of Reit is a proxy bet on bond market instrument has some variants of semantic interpretations.

    Rabble-rouser: Yes & No, Mate!

    Do you remember PAPpynomics uncompromising no-bailing out stance of letting overleveraged SG Reits sinking into their own funerals post GFC? And a rash of capital calls followed tthereafter in survival fights? So it is not entirely biblical correct of this proposition.

    Rabble-rouser: REITs can’t classified as Highly Leveraged because there is a SGX mandatory 40% cap on debt on the REIT managers

    Any corporate on 40% financial leverage is highly geared business – depending on cash flow regularity and stability. To me, it is not the construction of Reit financial structure BUT THE INCOME/FINANCE perspective if 40% leverage is or is not highly leverage.

    Recall the accounting balance sheet equation asset minus liability equals equity. In layman terms, what I have minus what I owe belongs to me. Restated

    Equity = asset – liability

    Problem with Reits is this as you correctly pointed out

    Rabble-rouser: Inside the portfolio could contained hidden surprises: (1) declining leasehold properties; (2) ageing buildings in need of huge capital fixes;

    So equity is SHRINKING difficult of resuscitation in adverse economic circumstances because of deteriorating assets.

    Equity value depends heavily on liability of which the biggest component is financing costs – HENCE THE PREDOMINANCE OF INTEREST FACTOR DRIVEN LARGELY BY YIELDS MOVEMENT IN THE BOND MARKET.

    Which is why me thinks this article read is misleading to the uninformed and naive investors though factually correct perhaps.

    https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/3-best-performing-office-s-reits-returned-28-in-year-to-date-sgx

    The run-up of returns since year begining is driven largely by expectation of lower interest rate environment. If that is not forthcoming or reverse, returns will be disappointing.

    Reits like infrastructures perpetual bonds are proxy bet on bond market – capable of complete loss when default occurs just like Hyflux.

    They are never part of my investing horizon, and never will be. I recall Reits was hot before GFC – it was a FAD never to return I believe for all the reasons you illuminate in your post.

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  • 革辣单东.念念青:

    oxygen:
    @ 革辣单东.念念青:

    NEITHER YOU NOR I WAS THERE TO COUNT or know the precise number of protesters.

    Of course, the police (read pigs) will seek to understate the true extent of protest participants because it is degrading of the true extent of public resentment against failed puppetry governance and the likely continuation of public resentment against violent conduct of law enforcement captured in camera against otherwise peaceful street democracy. IT WAS THE THUGS LAW ENFORCEMENT shamed. There will be continuing demand for that Carrie Lam to remove her a*se from the public stage.

    There was no obvious leader, people just join the street democracy SPONTANEOUSLY. AND THAT IS TELLING OF TRUE FEELINGS AND EXTENT OF SOCIETAL ANGUISH.

    Whether it was over 1 mln or under 800,000 slightly below, IT IS REAL FIRE OF PUBLIC RESENTMENT AGAINST TYRANT RULE.

    You are disgusting in denial of reality.

    你,我都不在那边。但香港警方一直在现场!香港警方给的数据肯定要能经得起科学方法的考验,不然他们会下不了台!

    你却用你自由心证得到的数字,完全经不起考验的假讯息,把你不喜欢的打入地獄,把你喜欢的捧上天堂!

    看起来,你比魔鬼还邪恶!你不是氧气,是一氧化碳,外加神经毒气!

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  • oxygen:

    YESTERDAY I WROTE THIS comment

    oxygen: Equity value depends heavily on liability of which the biggest component is financing costs – HENCE THE PREDOMINANCE OF INTEREST FACTOR DRIVEN LARGELY BY YIELDS MOVEMENT IN THE BOND MARKET.

    Which is why me thinks this article read is misleading to the uninformed and naive investors though factually correct perhaps.

    https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/3-best-performing-office-s-reits-returned-28-in-year-to-date-sgx

    The run-up of returns since year begining is driven largely by expectation of lower interest rate environment. If that is not forthcoming or reverse, returns will be disappointing.

    Today on ST Online I read this-

    Rainer Michael Preiss, a portfolio strategist at Taurus Family Office. : As bond proxies, they’ll also get a boost from interest rate cuts in the US

    and this

    Jason Low, a senior investment strategist at DBS Group Holdings’ wealth-management unit : Investors should not expect the kind of strong returns seen in the first half,

    Singapore Reits seen as too expensive after 18% surge this year.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/singapore-reits-seen-as-too-expensive-after-18-surge-this-year

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    There a lot of disagreements between researchers on what constitute the productions of REITs and how to measure their output. There are even arguments on whether REITs should be classified as stocks or real estate institutions with many recent studies by Bers and Springer, and Anderson et al. supporting the latter.

    If we treated REITs as an institution rather than stocks; hence, we assume the inputs are Property Operating Expenses and Management Fees, while the outputs are Total Revenue and Total Assets.Therefore, the inputs will be 1) property operating expense and 2) management fees. On the other hand, the common outputs used in research papers are market capitalization, total revenue, total assets, and/or dividends. The use of total assets as output will yield a more conservative and more believable results as compared to other output measures. It has a high correlation with and a smaller variance than market capitalization. It also has more consistent results and if bias exists, it is conservative bias. Therefore, total assets will be preferable over market capitalization. In addition, results are very similar in their efficiency studies when both assets and dividends are used as output and then only assets are used.

    Hence, the outputs will be 1) total assets, 2) total revenue 3)REIT Characteristics: i)property-type, ii)diversification, iii)geographical concentration, and size/scale. Property-type is classified into three categories: retail, commercial, and other REITs. In regards to geographical diversification, the researcher will measure diversification using two methods. The first method will employ the Herfindahl Index1 method. The second method is to split the categories into specialized for REITs that focuses 75% of its total portfolio value on one country, and diversified otherwise. On the other hand, for geographical concentration, the categories are split into Singapore-focused properties and overseas properties. The REIT’s portfolio value concentration determines their geographical focus. Lastly, for size/scale, total asset is the parameter used for measurement. In this study, splitting the assets into three quartiles determines the REIT size into small, medium, and large.

    The selection of inputs and outputs variables will depend on view of firms and availability of data. Both operating expense and manager’s fee are negatively correlated with efficiency scores, which means that an increase in operating expense or management fee reduces the efficiency of REITs. As mentioned before, Singapore researchers stressed upon the importance of considering Management Fees when choosing which REITs to invest. Based on DEA results, investors are discouraged from investing in REITs that has a high management fees as it is shown to…

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    ….reduce efficiency. The correlation of Return on Assets and Debt Ratio shows that Return on Assets is positively correlated with efficiency. Hence, this question the government’s recent policies to increase leverage from 35% to 45% of total assets because increasing leverage does not translate into increasing efficiency.

    Efficiency Score Based on Property-Type
    The second objective of this research is to examine the differences in efficiency of REITs based on their property-type specialization. Retail, Commercial, Others. It shows that the category “others” has the highest efficiency of 0.81636, followed by retail with a score of 0.71840. The category “others” includes REITs from hospitality (1), industrial (3), and healthcare (1). They are grouped as “others” because it is inappropriate to allow only a few REITs (e.g. for hospitality, only Ascott Residence Trust) to represent the whole sector. For example, the efficiency achieved by Ascott Residence Trust may not be due to their property-type, but rather efficiency of the REIT itself.

    Efficiency Score based on Geographical Diversification
    The effect of geographical diversification on REIT’s efficiency. From the result of Pearson correlation of Herfindahl index with efficiency scores it can be deduced that there is no correlation between efficiency and geographical diversification. Meanwhile, it categorizes REITs into specialized if 75% of its portfolio value is concentrated on one country, and diversified for otherwise. It further analyzed using the second method to see if it still holds true and finds that although specialized REITs has a higher efficiency of 0.73901, it does not differ significantly from diversified which has a mean of 0.72737. In summary, both tests show that there is no impact of geographical diversification on efficiency level.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    cont’d….

    Efficiency Score based on Geographical Concentration
    The objective is to find out whether there are differences in efficiency if REITs is more focused on Singapore or overseas in terms of their portfolio. It shows that the efficiency level of REITs who focused their portfolio more in overseas have a higher efficiency level of 0.824 compared to their counterparts on average. Furthermore, they are also more consistent in their efficiency level and hence, less risky as shown by the lower standard deviation. The results are shown to be statistically significant. This result reflects the situation of the Singapore’s economy that has slower growth compared to other countries such as China and Indonesia in recent years. The economy’s growth definitely has an impact on the growth of REIT. In addition, rising cost of land and property prices in Singapore has slowed down the number of acquisitions as it has become more expensive and riskier to do so, and since one of the DEA output measure in this research is based on total assets, this situation might explain the lower DEA efficiency scores.

    Efficiency Score based on Size
    The objective is to find out whether REIT’s size (measured in terms of total assets) has an impact on efficiency. Assets are split into three quartiles to categorize REIT into small, medium, or large. It shows that the smaller REITs display higher efficiency on average with a score of 0.7912. This is followed by large-size REITs with an efficiency score of 0.7164 and medium-size REITs with an efficiency score of 0.6989. Regarding standard deviation, medium-size REITs has the lowest standard deviation, followed by small-size REIT. However, the average standard deviations of different sizes of REITs are not very distinct from each other. The result shows that the mean differences between small-size REITs and other REITs are statistically significant while the differences between medium-size and large-size REIT are not. Hence, from this result, it can be deduce that small-size REIT has the highest efficiency while medium-size and large-size REITs are on an equal footing.

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ Haigen-Diaz & oxygen:
    Bros, In an internet connectivity world, Bricks ‘N Mortar are an out-of-fashion commodity & potential White Elephants into an Apolytical World trigger by Trump’s action!

    And the Global Economy aren’t growing but Big companies & banks are actually rapidly downsizing & retrenching going forward in a deteriorating economic environment! Biggest Global retrenchment being Deutsche Bank’s global culling of 18,000 employees worldwide. Consolidation & rationalisation of their office space set to follow. Watch this space!
    Link:https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/08/what-went-wrong-at-deutsche-bank

    Sad to say this but REITs are subject to the Laws of Diminishing Returns. I dare forecast that the era of rapid rent increases & monetization of rentable spaces had already been achieved & the only pathway left is down as the Global Economy sinks. What else can REITs managers do? And consumerism are declining due to debt fatigue & spending confidence shattered by growing news of immense job losses.

    Office rent returns skewed upwards by proliferation of Coworking Space operators like WeWork, REgius, IWG Et Al, whom were expanding like crazy. These operators (burning cash) are flushed with venture capitalists funding & seed money from unicorn investors in a world gone crazy from asset financialization & easy money being thrown at dodgy business operators hoping for an IPO exit strategy! The timing mismatch were so obvious – short term operators signing long term tenancies in Class A office buildings – A sure recipe for devastating financial catastrophe!

    oxygen: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/3-best-performing-office-s-reits-returned-28-in-year-to-date-sgx

    The run-up of returns since year begining is driven largely by expectation of lower interest rate environment. If that is not forthcoming or reverse, returns will be disappointing.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Haigen-Diaz & Rabble rouser

    THANKS EACH FOR YOUR respective informative input sharing.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble rouser @ Haigen-Diaz

    IN A MOMENT OF REFLECTION, I now remember Jerome Powell testimony before last night Congressional hearing this Fed observation – in the last decade the median and lower strata of income earners in the debt-fueled US economy is sinking down that trajectory of diminishing purchasing power. Powell find this disturbing.

    What about struggling economies in the rest of the world, notably EU and Japan, mired in a sea of negative interest rate environment of trying to keep head above water?

    Rabble-rouser: Sad to say this but REITs are subject to the Laws of Diminishing Returns. I dare forecast that the era of rapid rent increases & monetization of rentable spaces had already been achieved & the only pathway left is down as the Global Economy sinks. What else can REITs managers do? And consumerism are declining due to debt fatigue & spending confidence shattered by growing news of immense job losses.

    Also aware that some of the older building structures in HK > 40 yrs old can’t find insurers because they don’t meet new safety requirements.

    WHAT ASSET VALUES DO YOU ATTACHED TO THESE BUILDING IF INCLUDED IN REIT’s asset?? THERE IS NO BUYERS FOR THESE OLD BUILDINGS!

    Bewilderment.

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Rabble-rouser: In an internet connectivity world, Bricks ‘N Mortar are an out-of-fashion commodity & potential White Elephants into an Apolytical World trigger by Trump’s action!
    And the Global Economy aren’t growing but Big companies & banks are actually rapidly downsizing & retrenching going forward in a deteriorating economic environment! Biggest Global retrenchment being Deutsche Bank’s global culling of 18,000 employees worldwide. Consolidation & rationalisation of their office space set to follow.

    @ Rabble-rouser @ oxygen, (thread running out :)

    Today’s banking systems are costly and require longer clearing times (as each transaction must go through multiple, disjointed centralized
    clearing systems). The costs of clearing a transaction on a Blockchain is negligible in comparison to the much higher costs associated with clearing a transaction using the traditional banking systems. The technology can do some good things, such as real estate transactions(eg. REITs), whereby it actually reduces friction and transaction costs. The banks are terrified of this technology – they are being cut out of the picture and stand to lose untold sums of money in the process. Hence the desperate attempts to get a seat at the table and either develop blockchain systems themselves or create exchanges and other financial vehicles for customers. Central banks also serve to continually concentrate the world’s wealth and power into fewer hands, leading to a shrinking middle class and a global economic setup that many economists will tell you is unsustainable. The main problem it solves is the centralization of assets by a third party that the public has to trust to carry out its functions with integrity. While I wouldn’t go so far as to say that blockchain has entirely solved the issue of trust, it’s going in a direction I certainly think is worth exploring.

    There is a huge risk in the possibility that bitcoins will be bundled into financial derivatives. Such derivatives might combine futures positions in bitcoins with tangible financial assets or other currencies. Such structures are vulnerable to crashes, and the financial consequences could be grim.Cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin, which in my view are mainly diversification in securing the blockchain (alternative to proof of work) and alternative monetary policies (in terms of controlling the supply).

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  • Haigen-Diaz:

    Cont’d…

    UBS’ recent research report on what value the blockchain technology as such – not any particular cryptocurrency – is likely to add to the
    global economy over the next 10-20 years. In other words, the vast proportion of BIT transactions involve exchanges in Asia – presumably to circumvent strict currency controls in China. I suspect that the evenual equilibrium price will reflect the cost to transact/mine and the value of illicit/prohibited transactions.

    But just as many are using blockchain to solve problems that people in highly developed nations might not think about… for instance, blockchain and crypto allow the “unbanked” to store assets without a bank, and to be able to access those assest from anywhere. I have seen a number of articles that Russia is investing heavily in blockchain technology. Although not stated explicitly, the clear intent is that having a monetary system that is largely outside the reach of international banking regulation would allow participants in that monetary system to avoid international economic sanctions or asset freezes. This is basically the illegal trade/black market use case but on a nation state scale. Not sure if that is enough to sustain the technology but enough big bad actors that support the system could give it some air of legitimacy, for a while at least.

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