How will the global stock market recover?

I like to give my views about how the global stock markets will recover. This will happen within the next few weeks.

Why did the stock markets fall? The trigger point was not the corona virus. It has been around for a few weeks, so it was a major factor causing the fear and uncertainty. But it was not the trigger point.

The trigger was the collapse of the oil price following the disagreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia about limiting the production of oil. Saudi Arabia retaliated by flooding the oil market, causing the price to collapse. That triggered the collapse of the stock market.

The collapse happened on 9 March 2020. That is on my 72th birthday. I will remember it for a long time.

During the following week, the stock markets around the world dropped by 30%. When there is panic, few people dare to buy. But there are many people who have to sell, out of fear, or because they cannot hold the shares that they bought on margin.

The drop in the share prices go beyond fundamental factors. This is how a bear market works.

What will cause the global stock markets to recover? It could be the discovery of a vaccine or cure for the corona virus. But this will take time for its credibility to be established. It will not be the trigger.

The trigger will be an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to resume the production cuts. The oil price will recover. The traders will rush to buy shares. The global stock market will recover.

When will it happen? It should happen within the next few weeks. Watch out for it.

 

Tan Kin Lian

 

 

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12 Responses to “How will the global stock market recover?”

  • mike:

    Who think number of cases will shoot pass 600 by monday? Please Kee Chiew
    Who thinks 1st Apr worldwide flights will be stopped? Please Kee Chiew
    Who thinks that most countries will be lockdown for 30~60 or even 90days? Please Kee Chiew

    Who thinks GE will happen soon in next 45 days? Please Kee Chiew
    Who thinks the white-walkers will have happy ending with the GE results? Please Kee Chiew

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  • tan kin lian talkng cock:

    so very wrong.

    pseudo expert.

    the current movement is caused by black swan theorists waiting for that disaster to happen. sensing right timing, they use all they have to move the market to the direction they think it needs to be.

    oil prices have nothing to do with current movement. if anything else, USA interest rate cut of 1% makes stronger argument, even though it is not the reason.

    don’t believe a single word tan kin lian is saying.

    he is not the expert. he is wrong.

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  • oxygen:

    MR. TAN KIN LIAN, now I made a new discovery – your 72th birthday is the CAUSE OF GLOBAL STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE.

    If you don’t live to 73 years of age, it is the end of humanity on this little planet!!!

    All the political governances and central bankers AROUND THE WORLD must have made a biggest mistake and displayed infinite incompetence in not consulting you prior.

    HILARIOUS!!

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  • Darth Vader:

    So, the collapse of the stock market occurred on your birthday tkl? Then isn’t it obvious what must be done to ensure that there are no more stock market collapses? You don’t know tkl? Isn’t it obvious? If the stock market collapsed on your birthday then isn’t obvious that the best way to prevent more stock market collapses would be for you to not have any more birthdays?

    So tkl, what are you waiting for? If you really, truly, honestly want to serve the public trust like you always claim then shouldn’t you ensure that the whole world doesn’t suffer any more stock market collapses that can trigger off recessions by ensuring that you have no more birthdays?

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  • TUCK WAN:

    Woh ! Think he is Warren Buffet. A ordinary man on the street can also think like TKL.

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  • patriot of TUMASIK:

    Tan Ahhh!!! don’t push it no need to CONvince others of your idiosyncracies leh!!!…try posting a video of your daily routine may be interesting

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  • Oxy misses:

    What say u ,
    oxy or financially speaker or rabble rouser or sxxxxx of truth ?

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  • MarBowling:

    Maybe Tan Golden Chain’s theory is RIGHT!

    But think the EVERYTHING BUBBLE(stocks, oil, bonds, housing, etc aka Mother of all GFCs)is LOONG OVERDUE for POPPING. The Last 2008 GFC was NOT SOLVED or RESOLVED by those bastards and banksters who CAUSED IT and subsequently escaped scot-free. They just KICK the Can(full of smelly shits, worms, etc)down the LOONG and Winding Road! Period. 2 BLACK SWANS have appeared over a period of time to “TIME and INITIATE” the POPPING of the EVERYTHING BUBBLE!

    The 1st Black Swan was Donald Joker Trump when he was voted by 63 millions Americans to be the Pre$ident of USA in 2016. He turned the world upside down with his crap policies:trade war with China, Europe, etc, withdrawal from TPPA, killing of top Iranian General, his perfect phone call to the President of Ukraine which led to his IMPEACHMENT and a host of his unthinkable whim and fancy policies! This EVERYTHING BUBBLE was waiting eagerly for the 2nd Black Swan to appear.

    The 2nd Black Swan was the outbreak of the Wuhan Virus aka Covid 19 aka HOAX VIRUS! Mind you. When the then 2008 GFC occurred, only a few countries were affected when the US subprime bursted! After the initial shock, EVERYTHING went back to NORMAL and BUSINESS AS USUAL when the US Fed dished out QE1 to QE3 oops QUIETLY also QE4. This time round when the EVERYTHING BUBBLE POPPED, first to show the way to the EXIT is the global Oil Market, followed by the global Stock Market. Next in the queue will be the Bond Market and the Housing Market!

    Hopefully Tan Golden Chain could SLEEP as sound as A BABY at night in the next few weeks when the global stock market recovers as he predicts! Huat Arh.

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  • TruBlu:

    Mr Tan,you are getting to be more clownish the more articles you write.

    Strange guy you are.
    And,strange thinking.
    You said you studied at RI?
    RI must stand for Rubbish Institution then?

    Even i from Kampong school know that your OIL PRICE DROP LOGIC IS INDEED ILLOGICAL!

    ANYWAYS,thank you for the stupid joke!

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  • TruBlu:

    Anyway,more room for stocks to fall.
    Until,COVID stop its contagion,joblessness n shut-downs n lock-outs mean more pain.

    Unless a MIRACLE CURE arrives soon enough,dont hurry to buy stocks yet.

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  • Sojoürner of Truth:

    .Remember the old adage “If your only tool is a hammer then every problem looks like a nail.” At this point Trump’s only tool will not work, and he is devoid of alternatives. He is failing badly.

    In other words, like the 2008 Recession, everybody across the board loses about 30-35% of their accrued net worth, but the wealthiest 2% gain 95% of the growth afterwards. Taking the Fed rate rate to 0 from 1% is not going to make people going to work if shutdowns occur throughout the economy.

    Buying bonds and mortgage backed securities makes sense to provide the banking system with liquidity and prevent a “freezing” of credit markets. But the Fed has few bullets left in its tool kit and these conventional policy tools are unlikely to provide much relief to the stock market. Fear rules right now.

    How the Fed’s quantitative easing aimed at banks was supposed to mitigate the collapse in consumer demand and a public health crisis escapes me. Still scratching my head

    Cynically, it seems Jerome Powell allowed himself to be bullied by Trump’s threat of demotion to open a spigot of “free” money to banks. But there’s no free lunch, right? Ordinary taxpayers, now reeling from the tanking economy, will have to eventually bear the burden, won’t they? Sure seems like socialism for the 1%.

    An easy way to make the entire world’s markets rebound is for Trump to step down and disappear forever. Not only would the markets rebound but there would be massive celebrations and perhaps some new designated holidays.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Oxy misses

    MR. TAN KL “doctoral” thesis in high finance ALMOST SUCCEEDED in convincing me (his birthday is relevant) but not yet.

    Oxy misses: What say u ,
    oxy or financially speaker or rabble rouser or sxxxxx of truth ?

    I will need to consult a fortune-teller first before sharing any further thoughts on this subject matter of his forecast of stock market turnaround.

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