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Random versus Bias Sampling

It is rather frustrating to discuss data with a lot of people.

When we are looking at raw data of infected among Vaccinated (V) & UnVaccinated (UnV) from real world data, they would claim that’s not from “Double Blind Randomized Trial”.

But when they want to look at V & UnV death from Covid-19 (CV), they will use real world data to blow their trumpet!

They don’t understand what’s important in different contexts of comparisons.

Infec of a population is actually RANDOM. It means everyone should have equal chances of being in contact of the infec persons. It doesn’t depend on your V status or health status. Even though choice of taking V or not can be bias dependent on factors like health consideration, but that does not have direct influence on whether you will come into contact of infec persons or not. Thus the chances of being Infec are independent of V status.

However, whether one would eventually get infec or not, after coming into contact with infec persons, may depend on V status. That’s what the Pro V people believe and trying to prove.

However real world data, even though V status may not have gone through Randomized selection, have shown that there is little different from between V and UnV in eventual infec. Even SG preliminary data has shown that. This is how I could conclude very early, the V could not prevent infec at all.

Yet the official Pro V narrative kept on saying otherwise until tremendous amount of data prove them wrong, finally they conceded herd immunity is totally impossible!

But when it comes to death from CV, the official Pro V were quite happy to use totally unrandomized Real World data.

The real world data has shown that whether one would die from CV or not depends on age as well as pre existing conditions or Comorbidities. It is clear from the data that regardless of V status, this is so.

Even though there seems to have more UnV people dying from CV than V, but it might not be due to V at all. This is because whether one take the Vor not, it is NOT RANDOMLY determined but biasly determined in Real World.

Those who are UnV are mostly people in the vulnerable group, old age and or with pre existing conditions or Comorbidities. Even those younger ones, are concerned because of their health conditions.

Thus obviously, people from this UnV group would have higher chance of death or hospitalization due to their health conditions and age, may not be so because they didn’t take the V! This is what we call selection bias.

This is reasonable deduction because even though people of similar health and age conditions in V group are hospitalized or dying of CV as well!

It is just like old people may prefer dull color clothing while young ones brighter colors. So among those death are mainly wearing dull color clothing, can you conclude that wearing dull color clothing can result high deaths? Absolutely not. Its the age!

Most people are just ignoring the context of data but just manipulating the presentation and interpretation of data just to suit their own agenda. That’s what we call Confirmation Bias.

From Real World Data, more often than not, we will not get our PERFECT RANDOMIZED DATA or sampling, not to mention control group via double blind methodology.

However, with careful discernment or understanding the context of the datas, we could still come up with meaningful induction or prediction, not just mere suspicion via correlations.

But this can only be done if one is Truthful in dealing with these data objectively without pre determined agenda or biasness.

The world has somewhat turned crazy for the past 2 years.

 

Goh Meng Seng

 

 

yyy
READER COMMENTS BELOW

8 Responses to “Random versus Bias Sampling”

  • Statistics & Desired Outcome:

    Statistics can be massaged to achieve the predetermined or desired outcomes.

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  • numbers guy:

    The simple fact that MOH statistics separate people into non-fully vaxxed and fully vaxxed clearly shows that they are trying to hide something. In SG you can have 2 shots and still count towards the unvaxxed. It’s ridiculous. Common sense dictates that as soon as you take the first dose you are no longer in the untreated group.
    Combined with the fact that many vaccine deaths occur in the days after the shot, this allows them to ‘hide’ all the vaccine deaths in the unvaxxed group. It is surprising that sinkies are not insulted by this obvious deception. All those math tuition classes were quite pointless it seems.

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  • xoxo:

    Our Stats are most adulterated so as to allow the G to rape us unalarmingly.

    Stats only mah,can any time adjust here n there to suit our purposes.

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  • illiterate pap voters:

    However, whether one would eventually get infec or not, after coming into contact with infec persons, may depend on V status. That’s what the Pro V people believe and trying to prove.

    gms,

    you know this is a lie.

    Vax prevents death from infec.

    Vax never says no infec.

    When in a hole, stop digging.

    Why continue when you know you are wrong?

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  • theforgottongeneration:

    No need so chim, lah – bias vs bias sampling indeed. They will kelong any data just to look good – it is that simple.

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  • illiterate pap voters:

    It is rather frustrating to discuss data with a lot of people.

    gms,

    in this one we agree.

    there is a world of difference between with degree to understand the truth and without the degree and just being able to read in simple English.

    of course, those without degree react, by saying irked or such. BUT this never does away with the TRUTH that without degree, it means without the degree to distinguish fake news from truth.

    mind you. we only agree with you on this one matter. on the vax and unvax matter, we repeat, you are in a hole so stop digging.

    BTW, in the whole world, those without degree for one reason or another become irked whenever it is pointed out that they are without degree so whatever they read in simple English they think they understand but they are actually absorbing fake news.

    these folks know the truth in their hearts. but their lack of degree makes them defensive. even so, truth is truth. making inconvenient noises won’t make their without degree status go away.

    we ask, if they go to any country and say they want to be a doctor there, the first thing they shall be asked is, what degree do they have. they answer, we can read in simple English and so we shall qualify. hahaha. good try. 100% certainty cannot pass muster.

    we ask again, if they go to any country and say they want to be a lawyer there, the first thing they shall be asked is, what degree do they have. they answer, we can read in simple English and so we shall qualify. hahaha. good try. 100% certainty cannot pass muster.

    we conclude this. without degree, all they can ever say is they can read in simple English and so whatever gms chooses to BS they absorb lock stock barrel and become vehemently defensive when they are told they have been BS’ed.

    no degree = no degree. become irked also won’t change the fact.

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  • Asd:

    I think go and do something about it don’t diam diam complain like a sissy

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  • PAP mandate strong:

    @ I think go and do something about it don’t diam diam complain like a sissy.

    True yet funny. You know they will never and thats also including you.

    2015 GE results nite. Me and another Mr X were at a neighbour Mr C. Mr C a firm WP supporter. Before He was very confidence and talk alot this year that opposition parties will gain a few more seats. Once result came out first blurred then curse and swear sg voters.
    I ask him to calm down as the people have made their choice. But he was still bursting with anger and frustrations. Mr X then said why not you take a stick a knife or an axe and do something ? Immediately an anger man instant returned to calmness and answered ” i dont to dirty my hands “.

    Mr X and i look at each other. In our hearts nabay then what’s all that hoohaa earlier.

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