TR EMERITUS

I refer to the CNA’s commentaries, “How the end of Ukraine war could be secured, even with waning US support” (Mar 4), “Lessons from the Trump-Zelenskyy meltdown- for friends and foes” (Mar 1) and “Will Trump tariffs push China to change economic tack?” (Mar 3).

Foremost, we need to recognise the reality and cruelty of international politics. Because since the two world wars, there has been the existence and continuation of power politics as well as the law of the jungle.

On Feb 28, the humiliation of Zelenskyy in the White House, Washington has clearly demonstrated this point - Ukraine’s loss of sovereignty and humiliation.

Trump's intense pressure on Ukraine to sign a mining deal has indirectly forced Zelenskyy to abandon his insistence on a national security guarantees.

At the same time, the United States also threatened to cut off military aid and Starlink to Ukraine, which would make the Ukrainian military's drones inoperable and hastened the rout of the Ukrainian army. As we all know, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war (February 24, 2022), the US military aid to Ukraine (which must be repaid) has reached about 61% of the total military expenditure.

Simultaneously, since Trump came to power, he has been trying to win over and repair the past hostile U.S.-Russia relations.

For example, The New York Times website reported on March 2 that the US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth ordered the US military command to suspend cyber attacks on Russia.

Trump also intends to unilaterally lift economic sanctions against Russia in the hope that Putin will agree to end the Russia-Ukraine war that has lasted for more than 3 years as soon as possible, so as to
accomplish his presidential promise.

As for Russia's ultimate demand for ending the Russia-Ukraine war, military observers and analysts from all sides generally believe that Putin is also striving for maximized national interests and demands:

Russia wants Ukraine to get rid of fascism and militarization, and demands that Ukraine will never join NATO and that Russia permanently occupies those lands gained in the Russia-Ukraine war.

That is why Russia is now fiercely attacking Odesa (Ukraine’s important distribution center for various materials and important trade port, known as the "Pearl of the Black Sea") to maximise its occupied land.

However, It seems too early to say whether China’s 12-point position on a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis, which was released on February 24, 2023, will eventually be accepted by the victorious
country, Russia.

Therefore, it remains to be seen whether China will become Ukraine’s final savior.

As regards to Trump’s imposition of various tariffs on China, it will not push China to change its economic tack.

In fact, China had already prepared for a trade and tariff war with the United States during Trump’s first term. Therefore, over the past eight years, China has continued to explore business opportunities and develop markets in the Middle East, Russia, European and southern countries.

This is because the economic policies of the past few administrations of the United States have favored unilateralism and protectionism.

Hence, Beijing is unlikely to change its underlying economic strategy even with a trade war brewing.

China will strive to expand the domestic demand market, open up to foreign investment and trade, encourage overseas investment, and never engage in trade protectionism.

Indeed, in 2024, China’s exports to US only accounts 15% of its total exports volume, and accounts over 500 billion US dollars. And, vice versa, China’s imports from the United States only accounts for 6 to 7% of its total imports volume.

In due course, When Trump imposes 20% tariffs upon China’s imports, it will not generate adverse effects and repercussions on China. And, in reverse, China will also counter act the trade tariffs upon US’
imported goods.

So, eventually the imposition of high tariffs will have greater and negative impact/consequences on the vast numbers of American consumers as they will not be able to find another substitute of imported product with a cheaper price and reasonably good quality. (as China has the largest, complete industrial chain and logistics chain in the world)

For examples, the consumable and industrial products of China which are very popular in the world with excellent quality and prices : electric cars, solar panels, zero-electric and zero-magnetic material
focuser.

Teo Kueh Liang (Mr)

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