TR EMERITUS

I think the MIW must be having election nightmares of desperation. Economy recovery? I think they are desperate for the status quo of benign stability to hold between now and September. Europe is still wobbly. The financial rescue of Greece merely stalled a sudden collapse right on its edge. Anyone read a Spanish bank collapse last week – long after the 2008/2009. What does that mean? The smouldering flame of meltdown has NOT been extinguished yet and this is not just in EU as also reported a regional California bank collapsed in the same week. What does these tell me? THE SLOW DECAYING DEATH HAS NOT ENDED. A lot of banks and business are still in the dying throes, many surviving till today because of the stimulus life support which cannot continues indefinitely. As these life support increasingly weans off, the financial collapse might escalate and Europe might implode again. The budgetary and fiscal indiscipline CONTINUES TO WREAK HAVOUC. Within euro currency jurisdiction, only Germany and to some extent France is stable BUT ALL THE PIIGS ( Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are still deeply mired in national debt way exceeding their GDP – in practical terms – financially bankrupt and struggling with fiscal budget to service borrowing costs and keeps the economic fire smouldering. Spain’s economic problems are BIGGER than Greece simply by reasons of its economic base is much larger. Germany is like one breadwinner supporting the rest of euro currency economies – PIIGS and Eastern European economies all underwater. Britain, though not part of Euro currency, could barely survive its own. PRC of course said it support the euro – it was a political and economic imperative. Any disintegration of euro will decimated the Chinese manufacturing sector as EU is a major export market for Chinese made goods. But if Spain wobbles followed by Portugal and Italy, the risks is that German voters will force Merkel to walk out and abandon the euro currency regime. TOO COSTLY FOR GERMANY AND TOO FEW BENEFITS. Euro currency, I believe, was born out of political imperatives than economics. Why? Because its diverse membership had different economic maturity of industrialisation and decay and also difference of reliance on specific economic sector. One currency fitting all imposed too much constraints. Greece has no manufacturing of any significance and mostly dependent on tourism. Portugal is mainly agricultural. Italy’s industrial base is eroded and a cheaper euro does not benefit its export market but beneficial to Greek tourism. The stretch and strain are too much to bear of diversity. It could break and all hell break lose. European central banker has warned of a second wave of loan losses spreading through PIIGS countries. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/industry-sectors/euro-zone-banks-face-a-second-wave-of-loan-losses-warns-the-ecb/story-e6frg96f-1225873858977 The next few months could be very critical if the US recovery does not take hold to give some support to global demand. EU is Asean major market and Singapore component of that trade-dependency is almost 1/3 of Asean exposure. Any violent shakedown of EU in the next three months will have major impact on our economy and negative impact on PAP’s electoral fortune. As for the US economy, pending home sales though registering increase in recent months and better than expected in April BUT THE RATE OF INCREASED HAS DECLINED.Pending home sales was 6% in April compared to gains of 7.1 percent in March and 8.3 percent in February. http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20100602/tts-us-economy-property-sales-c1b2fc3.html That indicated softness. Improved US economic data for housing is due exclusively to financial incentives in the Obama Admininistration stimulus package which has ended in April – all contract must be completed by end June. Car sales were also up BUT THIS IS ALSO DUE TO CASH FOR CLUNKER DEAL from the stimulus package. The critical figures are what the May and June statistic to come in on major consumer ticket items like cars and housing to really assess the strength of US recovery. Over in China, manufacturing output has fallen due to tightening monetary policy at work. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/chinas-manufacturing-growth-slows-official-report/story-e6frg926-1225873953545 The result of slower manufacturing output has negative impact on commodities demand. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/china-taps-commodities-stockpile-in-bearish-signal/story-e6frg90x-1225873940964 This is yet another bearish signal. The collapse in the commodity index is telling us that the peak in global industrial growth is imminent, it’s here right now. One market commentator warned. “Markets are going to have to deal with the reality of a slowdown.” We are seeing now the biggest slump in commodities since Lehman Brothers Holdings collapsed is undermining Wall Street forecasts for accelerating economic growth and higher prices for everything from copper to crude oil. http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/bear-signals-commodities-mark-biggest-drop-since-lehman-20100602-wvti.html The biggest danger yet is burst property bubble in China. THIS ONE IS SAID TO BE BIGGER AND WORST THAN THAT EXPERIENCE IN USA. At minimum it won’t be much smaller of impact if it burst. PRC speculators are buying 2nd and 3rd property for speculation on pyramid mortgaging and the Government is well aware of this trend. http://edition.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/05/31/china.property.worse.us.ft/index.html The Aussie currency had a meltdown last month – another bearish signal. If raw material demand falls, it signals a downturn in manufacturing and construction. Manufacturing is meeting consumer demand which must be weakening. Construction is mainly urbanisation and infrastructural and if that slows down it also means a slackening in consumer demand and public spending – again economic slow-down is near the horizon or already in the works. THE REASON WHY FINANCIAL MARKETS ARE SO GLOOMY IS BECAUSE EVERYONE REALISES THAT ALL EUROPEAN AND US GOVERNMENT WERE ALREADY IN BUDGET AND FISCAL NEGATIVE IMBALANCE BEFORE THE GFC AND THAT IMBALANCE HAS WORSEN SINCE 2008/2009 because private sector debt had been temporary warehoused in the Government’s sector. THAT MEANS THAT GOVERNMENT SECTOR IS NOW LESS AND LESS ABLE TO ENGAGE IN STIMULUS SPENDING WHEN THE NEXT CRASH COMES. AND THAT COULD BE ON THE HORIZON. Copper – used in all construction – is down on demand and so is oil. I believe the MIW knows the dark clouds are gathering very fast on the horizon. THEY ARE DESPERATE TO HOLD THE ELECTION POST THE YOUTH OLYMPIC BEFORE THE NEXT CRASH COMES. THAT IS WHY WE SEE - restoration of pay and bonus for civil servant – double barrel and extended over time months for reminder impact from June to July - GST credit in july - restructuring hot sensitive TH’s top management structure to look good that something serious is being done to improve its performance and strategic direction etc in August. - all the good news vibes to hide all the negatives - sudden die-off of talk on migration influx and housing inflation. THE SIGNS ARE NOT GOOD FOR SINGAPOREANS AHEAD. THE MIW IS PANICKING. ANYONE DISAGREEING??? Jane Doe  Read More →

A fierce debate broke out on Yahoo News over the Singapore women table-tennis team's victory over China in the recent World Championship has garnered more than 2,500 comments so far, a reflection of how divided Singaporeans remain over the use of "foreign talents" to represent Singapore in international competitions. (read the comments here) In spite of the desperate attempts of the state media to suppress the genuine sentiments of Singaporeans by its usual selective coverage, biased reporting and astroturfing tactics, netizens continue to lampoon the "hollow" victory in cyberspace. A quick glance at the comments posted on Yahoo News shows public opinion is polarized between two camps with one calling for Singaporeans to embrace foreign sportsmen and women and another demanding that the state invests in local talents instead. A significant proportion of Singaporeans felt that there is nothing to celebrate as the event it's still "China's victory" in the end since the Singapore team comprised entirely of Singaporeans born in China. Some opined that they would be a bit more proud of the team's achievements if there were a few native Singaporeans in it. Others said they were actually "ashamed" that Singapore "bought" the trophy with foreigners rather than nurture their own players. It is time that the authorities pay close attention to the feedback of Singaporeans instead of dismissing them again as grouses made by a small group of disgruntled citizens. As one netizen put it succinctly: "I can understand the angst and discontent that some Singaporeans are feeling to have these FTs winning gold medals for Singapore instead of our own talents. Naturally, we would not feel that the glory is ours when the feat is achieved by people of another country. Our National Sports Council should conscientiously look into encouraging and supporting more of our young people to take up sports to grow our own pool of talents in this area so that any sports achievement could be truly an achievement by home grown Singaporeans and not foreigners taking up citizenship just to compete under our Singapore flag."   Please join our Facebook page here and invite your friends to do so to create awareness of the current affairs affecting Singaporeans. Please use our online web form to contact us.  Read More →

By Andrew Jacobs from New York Times, 4 June 2010 As the nation held its collective breath, China’s first astronaut, Yang Liwei, floated back to the motherland, having orbited Earth 14 times in the Shenzhou 5, or Divine Capsule. It was October 2003, and the national broadcaster CCTV carried live coverage of the momentous event, from Mr. Yang’s famous pleasantries uttered in space — “I feel good” — to the instant that workers opened the capsule door to reveal the pale but smiling face of a hero, offering irrefutable evidence that China’s maiden manned space voyage had gone off without a hitch. Or had it? In a lecture he gave to a group of journalism students last month, a top official at Xinhua, the state news agency, said that the mission was not so picture-perfect. The official, Xia Lin, described how a design flaw had exposed the astronaut to excessive G-force pressure during re-entry, splitting his lip and drenching his face in blood. Startled but undaunted by Mr. Yang’s appearance, the workers quickly mopped up the blood, strapped him back in his seat and shut the door. Then, with the cameras rolling, the cabin door swung open again, revealing an unblemished moment of triumph for all the world to see. Read rest of article here.  Read More →