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作者/来源：吉莲•邰蒂 《金融时报》16/04/2010 强悍的新加坡政府投资公司（Government Investment Corporation of Singapore，简称GIC）并不常成为异端思想的滋生地。不过，最近在GIC沸沸扬扬的一场辩论，其深层意义却吸引了世界各地投资者的关注。 辩论的中心议题，是围绕所谓的哈佛(Harvard)或耶鲁(Yale)投资模式展开的。从其近期历史来看，一如全球其它众多的主权财富基金，大部分时间 GIC都对资产庞大的大学捐赠基金充满嫉妒与艳羡。原因是，对于任何希望摆脱呆滞守旧养老基金状态的长期投资集团，哈佛或耶鲁模式似乎提供了一幅令人兴奋 的远景。毕竟，20年来，耶鲁等高校通过开拓一种独特的投资风格赚取了丰厚的回报。这在本质上讲是在支持一种多样投资理念，即在投资主流证券的同时，也将资产分散到非流动性资产及另类资产类别（诸如私人股本）。 然而，同众多美国金融品牌一样，哈佛和耶鲁的名字如今在亚洲等地似乎已 失去了往日的光芒。或许正如GIC副主席陈庆炎 (Tony Tan) 解释的那样：“整个‘捐赠模式‘的概念（曾经）非常具有影响力。但是，（如今）任何理性的投资者都会对此重新审视一番。”或者，更具体地说，重新思考是否要照搬。 数据是导致这种结果的部分原因。截至2009年6月的一年里，哈佛和耶鲁捐赠基金所持有的资产价值缩水25%。同期，全美所有高校的平均损失为23%（与GIC模式类似，截至2009年3月，GIC的年度损失也达到了20%）。 哈佛模式的支持者坚持表示，未来几年这种衰退局面有可能在一定程度上得到扭转。此外，正是由于亏损如此普遍，一些投资经理对此满不在乎，认为这是一种自然的力量。 但事实上，并非所有人都遭遇了同样的损失。例如，在截至2009年6月的一年里，牛津大学(Oxford University)捐赠基金“仅仅”损失了10%。而且，据牛津大学基金主管桑德拉•罗伯逊(Sandra Robertson)表示，那正是因为几年前牛津大学在经过深思熟虑后决定不效仿哈佛模式。 不过，这种失去光芒——抑或不安——的感觉，，不只是损失所带来的。近期，对业绩数据进行仔细核查后，一些GIC的高管开始得出结论：自己公司内部经理近些年的业绩，就算不是更好，也和外聘投资经理不相上下。由此，他们不禁要提出一个在过去看来有些离经叛道的问题，即：为什么会有人自找麻烦，向对冲基金或私人股本等机构支付高额的费用呢？ 流动性风险依然是更为重要的问题。直到2007年，GIC还一直认为自己永远不会被迫贱卖资产，或者以不体面的方式退出投资。毕竟，主权财富基金（或捐赠基金）的全部意义就在于它应具有长远眼光，且这种眼光应当能助其安然度过任何短暂的风暴。 然而，在过去两年里，主权基金发现，这种“长期福咒”所能提供的保护远比之前想象的要少。因为在投资私人股本和对冲基金之后，GIC（和其他主权基金）最终往往会受制于共同投资者的变幻莫测——而这些共同投资者有一些目光短浅，或者实行逐日盯市制度。因此，会给GIC等集团造成伤害的，不仅有资产相关性问 题，还有投资风格的延续。 这对于 GIC（和其他基金）应当如何运作，提出了一些重要的问题。未来他们是否只应该与类似的投资机构共同投资呢？他们现在可以要求共同投资者提供详细资产目录吗（即便他们自己并不愿意提供这些数据）？他们能够因为预想中的非流动性风险而要求赔偿吗？或者，他们是不是应该辞掉所有的外聘经理，完全通过“内部力 量”来完成投资？ 坦率的讲，这场辩论的结局还不甚明朗，因为在像GIC这样的集团里，论战还处于初期阶段。此外，正如陈庆炎所承 认的那样，他们以前几乎没有就流动性问题进行过任何思考，且大多数亚洲基金在努力打造一片全新天地方面都经验有限。相反，近几十年来，在某种程度上他们都 普遍在试图追随美国模式（最突出的原因是许多亚洲国家的投资官员都拥有……呃……哈佛或者耶鲁的学位）。 但是，随着全球更多财富从美国流出，向新兴市场国家转移，未来投资业的才智领袖将出现在哪里，这个问题越来越引人注目。投资者应当继续关注GIC下一步的动向，更不用说其他新兴市场国家——例如中国 ——更为低调的主权基金了。 来源：http://www.ftchinese.com  Read More →

Reuters, 16 April 2010 The likelihood North Korea sank a South Korean naval ship near their disputed border rose when Seoul said today an external explosion probably caused the ship to split in two, killing dozens. South Korea’s defence minister said this month the 1,200-tonne Cheonan may have been hit by a torpedo, immediately putting suspicion on North Korea and stoking concerns that the incident could start a conflict on the long divided peninsula. “Conclusively, after a visual inspection, there is a higher chance of an outer explosion than an internal one,” Yoon Duk-yong, a top investigation official, told a news conference. Local media is increasingly pinning the blame on North Korea, in the absence of any other likely reasons for the explosion which sank the corvette late last month, thought to have killed 46 sailors. Yoon said the twisting of metal from the salvaged stern that was raised yesterday indicated the blast had come from outside but the team will wait until the rest of the ship was raised and other evidence gathered before reaching a final conclusion. “The Cheonan was also halved in the middle. Therefore, it is highly likely that a torpedo fired from a submarine or mine destroyed the ship,” military expert and former submarine captain Jung Sung wrote in the JoongAng Ilbo daily. The threat of triggering a major conflict, and so hurting its own rapid economic recovery, means South Korea is unlikely to take military action against the North if it does turn out to have deliberately sunk the ship, analysts said. Relations between the two have already turned frosty since President Lee Myung-bak came to power in Seoul over two years ago, angering Pyongyang by ending the financial largesse that had for years been a lifeline for the broken North Korean economy. In a fit of pique, the North this week froze assets of a South Korean firm at a joint tourism project north of the border once hailed as a symbol of co-operation. The North has made no public mention of the ship sinking. Uncertainty over North Korea’s behaviour and the health of its iron leader have become a major risk for the South. Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said yesterday it did not plan to raise the South’s sovereign rating — which would normally make it cheaper for South Korean borrowers overseas — while risks involving Pyongyang’s leadership persist. Thirty-six of the 46 sailors who went missing were recovered from the ship’s stern, the Defence Ministry said. The bodies of two other sailors were found before the salvage operation, and 58 were rescued alive. South Korea expects to raise the front part of the ship in the next few days as it searches for clues to one if its deadliest naval disasters since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a cease fire. The sinking could also complicate the resumption of stalled international talks on ending North Korea’s atomic arms programme in return for aid to prop up its broken economy, experts said. — Reuters  Read More →

Written by Our Correspondent PAP Minister without portfolio and NTUC Secretary-General Lim Swee Say has issued a call on his own party and government to "restore" part of employers' CPF contribution rate to workers in the aftermath of the Singapore economy's "strong" performance in the first quarter of the year. While the CPF contributions of Singapore workers have remained constant at 20 percent, the rate of employers has been cut several times, the last being in 2003 when it was reduced to 13 percent though it was subsequently raised to 14.5 percent in 2007. Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong who had earlier called on employers to restore wage cuts gave a vague and non-commital answer when contacted by the media: "The Government will consider carefully the call by the labour movement to restore the employer CPF contribution rate in view of the strong recovery and robust outlook of Singapore's economy, taking into account employers' concerns on business competitiveness," he was quoted as saying in the Straits Times today. Nominated MP Teo Siong Seng, however felt that "a restoration should wait a year or two as the external environment was still uncertain." He had previously voiced out against the government's move to raise levies for foreign workers, arguing that it may affect the SMEs. Singapore workers are always ask to "sacrifice" during economic downturns, but their wages don't seem to go up by much when the economy recovers. Despite the rosy GDP growth figures, the labor market remains tight and young Singaporeans are still struggling to start families of their own with their meager pay and astronomical prices of HDB flats. There are no independent trade unions in Singapore to fight for the interests of Singapore workers. NTUC is a pseudo-PAP organization which is always led by a PAP Minister. How can Mr Lim Swee Say claim to represent the interests of Singapore workers when he is part of the government too? Draconian laws were also put in place by the PAP to curtail the rights of Singaporeans. There is no opposition in Parliament to speak up for the common folks in the street who continue to live a life of abject slavery under PAP rule. The call by Mr Lim is just another "wayang" to show Singaporeans that NTUC is "doing something". However, with elections around the corner, one cannot discount the possibility entirely that the PAP will raise the employers' CPF rates by a token percentage to "sweeten" the ground for it.   EDITORS’ NOTE: Please join our Facebook discussion on this article here and invite your friends to do so as well to raise awareness among fellow Singaporeans.   Copyright © 2009 – 2010 The Temasek Review (If you are going to reproduce this article on your blog or forum, please provide a link back to ours)  Read More →