TR EMERITUS

The performance of the Singapore economy has been going downhill in recent years with many PMETs losing their jobs.  We were first told that the entire world is entering into a new era of digital economy and our workers need to learn new skills to survive. However, we ended up teaching PMETs and new graduate students how to drive Grab cars and cook in restaurants.  Thereafter, we have shifted the focus onto the US-China trade war for the depressing performance of our economy.  If anything, we ended up with the impression that many other countries are facing the recessionary gloom globally.  After all, the need to learn new skills in the new digital age and the US-China trade war should affect everybody and not just Singapore alone. Before we jumped into any conclusions, please take a look the following table that gives the latest GDP growth rate and GDP annual growth rates over several countries in Asia, Europe and America.  The data are obtained from https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/gdp, with proper changes to the country names and using a hyphen to connect two words as in https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp. GDP Growth Rate GDP Annual Growth Rate Singapore -3.40% 0.10% Brunei -0.50% 13.57% Cambodia - 7.50% China 1.60% 6.20% Hong Kong 1.30% 0.60% Indonesia -0.52% 5.07% India 1.60% 5.80% Japan 0.60% 0.90% Laos - 6.50% Malaysia 1.10% 4.50% Myanmar - 6.80% North Korea - 2.70% Philippines 1.00% 5.60% Sri Lanka 1.40% 3.70% South Korea -0.40% 1.70% Thailand 1.00% 2.80% Vietnam 6.88% 6.71% Australia 0.40% 1.80% New Zealand 0.60% 2.50% Denmark 0.10% 1.90% Finland 0.20% 1.20% France 0.30% 1.20% Germany 0.40% 0.70% * Greece * 0.20% 1.30% * Ireland * 2.40% 6.30% * Italy * 0.10% -0.10% Netherlands 0.50% 1.70% Norway -0.10% 2.50% * Portugal * 0.50% 1.80% * Spain * 0.70% 2.40% Sweden 0.60% 2.10% Switzerland 0.60% 1.70% United Kingdom 0.50% 1.80% Canada 0.10% 1.30% United States 3.10% 3.20% A total of 35 countries was included in the above list so as to remove cherry-picking in the data statistics.  Furthermore, our neighbouring South-East Asian countries were included as well as the European PIIGS countries (marked with asterisks) that were on the brink of bankruptcy about a decade ago. I would not know how readers felt when they look at the above table to realise that Italy and Singapore are the only two countries whose economies are at risks of recession.  Our most recent GDP growth rate stands at -3.40%, which is quite far off from the second lowest rate of -0.52% by Indonesia with an annual growth rate of 13.57%.  Our GDP annual growth rate stands at 0.10%, just above the lowest rate of -0.10% by Italy. What this means is that our economy had been severely mismanaged and we were pushing the blame onto non-existent external factors to mask our incompetence.  If our economic downturn was due to external factors, why would these external factors not affect other countries at all? But how did we mismanage our economy? The sorry state of affairs started some time back.  First, we put all our hopes onto the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).  We thought that we were standing on high ground and we insulted China without realising the consequences. https://news.yahoo.com/singapore-pm-draws-laughs-us-speech-111914557--politics.html https://www.malaysia-today.net/2017/05/20/lee-hsien-loong-retiring-from-premiership-in-shame/ Next, when Philippines refused to challenge over the Hague ruling on the South China Seas, Singapore openly asked China to respect the Hague ruling which stated that the South China Seas are the territories of Philippines. https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/hague-ruling-singapore-urges-parties-to-respect-legal-and-diplomatic-processes-exercise https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2004638/china-urges-singapore-not-interfere-south-china-sea However, Trump won the Presidential Race and one of his first executive actions was to remove US from the TPP when he took over as President.  In the meantime, Hong Kong detained Singapore Terrex Infantry Carrier Vehicles and China refused to allow Singapore to participate in their One-Belt-One-Road initiative.  If I am not wrong, no deal has ever been signed until today even though Lee Hsien Loong was invited to the corner back seat during the second One-Belt-One-Road meeting.  But that is not all.  China built a gigantic port in Malaysia to control the sea port businesses in the South East Asia region and rendered Singapore obsolete.  It was sweet revenge for China. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2087402/can-china-really-deliver-malaysias-singapore-slayer https://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/chinese-money-pouring-malaysia-could-help-najib-votes All these events took a heavy toll on our economy.  Our domestic exports were in the red since November 2018, and hit record lows in both May 2019 and June 2019. https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/domestic-exports-of-non-oil-nodx-pctyoy https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-non-oil-exports-plunge-159-in-may-biggest-fall-in-more-than-2-years https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2019/07/17/singapore-exports-decline-in-double-digit-to-17-3-in-june-biggest-drop-recorded-in-over-six-years/ https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-non-oil-domestic-exports-plunge-173-in-june-as-double-digit-slump-worsens What are we going to do now? PAP has always urged the Singaporeans to stand behind them and give them the mandate and support during times of economic woes.  They argued that we have to stand united and they will lead Singapore out of the economic doldrums. The problem with this argument is that all evidences pointed that PAP was the one who get Singapore into the current pathetic state in the first place, with record number of PMETs losing their jobs and the economy collapsing all around us. It is not clear what needs to be done now to rejuvenate the economy.  Some people argue for regime changes, but we cannot take it for granted that the Alternative Parties can definitely lead the country out of the current situation.  The state of affairs is so dire that Singaporeans need to understand the urgency of the matter and work to formulate concrete plans to move the country forwards. Given the current state of affairs, can both the Alternative Parties and PAP please highlight and explain how they intend to address the economy issues in Singapore?  In particular, can the PAP please tell us what it intends to do differently, instead of using meaningless buzzwords and jargons while recycling and repackaging stale ideas from years ago? Personally, I feel that PAP should be held accountable for the most problematic state of affairs of the economy while they were paying themselves the highest salaries in the world.  Indeed, somebody once pointed out that one of our ministers’ pay is more than the pay of the entire Malaysian Cabinet and speculated that Ho Ching’s salary can pay for the entire Singapore Parliament a few times over.  In fact, the pays are so high that, until today, both the minister’s total pay and Ho Ching’s total pay (in dollars and cents) are kept as state secrets.  But at of this moment, Malaysia’s latest GDP growth is at +1.10% while Singapore latest GDP growth is at -3.40%.  So exactly what sort of top-quality calibre ministers are we paying for and how much have we been paying them?   Diana Gupta      Read More →

I like to propose an IOT (internet of things) system to track young children and elderly suffering from dementia. We can install a network of 20,000 blue tooth beacon readers all over Singapore - at bus stops, HBD blocks and public buildings. Families can buy the blue tooth beacons (cost about $5 to $15 each) and give to young children or dementia elderly. These beacons can be worn in a wrist band or attached to a bag. The battery in the beacon can last for 6 months or longer. When the holder passes any of the 20,000 readers, the data can be stored in a cloud server. The family can track the location of the beacon holder when the need arises, e.g. when a child or elderly is lost. This information is available only to the family and adequate safeguard can be implemented to prevent the data from being accessed illegally. In any case, the data is of no interest to third parties. The cost of purchasing and installing the 20,000 readers should be about $3 million. However, the building and bus stop owners should be asked to install the readers and to provide the electrical connection. There will also be the cost of providing the data connection for the 20,000 readers. At $5 per month, the cost will be $100,000 or $1.2 million a year. Managers of shopping malls have the choice of installing additional readers in their malls to allow customers to find the location of family members. The location of each beacon holder will be the last location that is read by a reader. The holder may have moved away from that location but has not been captured by another reader. He or she should be in the vicinity. Would this be a useful Smart Nation project?   KL Tan      Read More →

Many people want the non PAP parties to take over the government, so that the bad PAP policies can be changed. They argued that only a regime change can achieve the goal of a drastic change in the policies on CPF, HDB, jobs and other critical challenges. They expressed disappointment that the Progress Singapore Party is not working for regime change in the coming general election. I agree. However, we have to be realistic in how the goal of regime change can be achieved. We need to give more time for the voters to accept this drastic change. The first step should be to break the two third majority of the PAP in parliament. I would consider this to be an important first step towards the eventual change in the strategic direction of Singapore. A loss of the two-thirds majority in parliament will be a major setback that will force the PAP government to review many of its bad policies. They will have to look outside of their circle for better ideas on how to meet the economic and social challenges. They will be truly more inclusive in their approach. This first step will also give the voters a chance to review the quality of the elected MPs from the non PAP parties. If these opposition MPs are of good quality, the voters on the middle ground will be willing to support a regime change in the future. I am confident that a more active parliament will produce better social and economic strategies for Singapore. It will allow the voter to see how a more transparent process will lead to better governance. They will gain the confidence that a non PAP government can run Singapore better than the current PAP government. Let me explain my confidence in a more inclusive process. To solve any problem, we need to identify the problem and get broad agreement on the problem. This can only be achieved by a transparent process. We need to agree on what the problem really is, and the goals to achieve. The next step is to find a solution to the problem. This requires another transparent process where the experts and the knowledgeable people are involved. We need a combination of people with experience and wisdom and the people who are able to think of the future. The transparent process of decision making will produce better strategies. They will not guarantee success. In many cases, the strategies have to be modified to meet the actual realities on the ground. These changes in strategies has also to be done with a transparent process. It will lead to further changes that are more likely to produce the optimal results. Many voters are worried about change - will a regime change produce a better or worse outcome for Singapore? Can they trust a non PAP government to produce better results? My answer is - we need a more transparent process to produce better results. The first step is to deny the PAP their two third majority in parliament in the next general election. It may bring about a transparent process. If this still does now produce the desired change in the economic and social strategies, the voters can go for a regime change in a future general election.   Tan Kin Lian      Read More →