TR EMERITUS

As I sat down to blog about FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the first couple of lines of a Robert Louis Stevenson poem floated across my mind -- "The moon has a face like the clock in the hall; She shines on thieves on the garden wall."  There's a rustic imagery of a bright moon over a burglar on a wall I once saw in a kiddy story book that's etched in my mind from childhood days. It's one of those things which never goes away. Today, petty thefts are not news. And we are no longer shocked by the audacity and the astronomical sums of money involved. I collated a list of the biggest financial fraud, scam and theft in modern history to have a sense of how SBF lines up. To have a comparative sense, the sums are adjusted for inflation. Bernie Madoff still holds the record, but his is an investment scam. We don't know how much Madoff made off, excuse the pun. For the investment frauds, there are still substantial asset recoveries for distribution to investors. In the case of accounting frauds where the companies inflated profits, some investors probably lost much, but it's certainly not the sums indicated here. Similarly, for insider trading, we know how much Milken milked the investors, excuse the pun again. But that's not to say investors lost that much. In the case of embezzlement and theft, that's the real money gone. So looking at those highlighted in yellow, FTX is the 3rd biggest theft in history.  Pardon the pun yet again, but how much did customers get fried by Sam Bankman-Fried is not yet known. It is estimated about US$10b of customers' deposits have disappeared. How much of investors money, including Temasek's $275m, did he burn in FTX operation or frittered away is still anybody's guess. It is interesting to note the 2 biggest theft in world history involved sovereign wealth funds. Prince Bolkiah has pride of place as the top thief, taking  US$27.4b of the country's oil wealth for himself. Kuwait has 2 SWF - Kuwait Investment Authority and Kuwait Investment Office. The mismanagement is in the KIA which involves several families, including from the ruling Royal Family itself. Some family assets have been seized. By the way, the last guy Charles Ponzi, he was the gentleman after whom ponzi scams are named. A ponzi scheme relies on a high payout system to continuously attract the unwary, and old investors receive payoffs from the money of new investors. Such schemes existed long before Ponzi, but he had the honour of lending his name to this type of con. SBF was arrested by authorities in Bahamas where FTX is domiciled. He has been extradited to US and currently out on bail under house arrest at his parents' residence. Will SBF go to jail with the severity of charges piling up against him? According to Judge Jeanine Pirro, a popular FOX News commentator, she thinks SBF will certainly go to jail, but that a trial is most unlikely. The reason being the CEO of Alameda M/s Caroline Ellison, SBF's ex-girlfriend, and FTX co-founder and Chief Technology Officer, Gary Wang, have both been charged and they have pleaded guilty. They have certainly concluded a plea bargain and will testify and throw SBF under the bus. The DOJ will press the same charges against SBF similar to Ellison and Wang. By doing so, according to Judge Pirro, there is no way that SBF will plead Not Guilty and have a court case. That is the reason why the DOJ has been slow in extracting SBF from Bahamas. They needed to have plea bargains with Ellison and Wang finalised first. So it is very likely SBF will plead guilty, go to jail, no trial and case closed. Nobody will ever find out the truth of whether FTX and SBF are actually a front that was set up to benefit the Democrats as the money trail seems to suggest. The tell-tale sign of fishy business is the low bond for Ellison and Wang, and while bond for SBF is US$250m, his parents home worth only US$4m is pledged. Who really put up the bond is a secret. One needs substantial assets before a bank will issue US$250m bond. The fix is in.   * Article first appeared on Down The Rabbit Hole.      Read More →

I refer to The Independent Singapore’s article, “Hokkien and other Chinese dialects: Listen to Ong Ye Kung’s daughter” (Dec 18) A language is generally perceived as an effective communication tool, it also bridges the mental and emotional interactions among large groups of people. Therefore it has a string of sentimental attachments and values too. Similarly, it applies to any local Chinese dialects. Although respective Chinese dialects have their own uniqueness due to different pronunciation with different meanings of certain vocabulary. For examples, some vocabularies in Teochew. And, it is quite time consuming to master the specific dialect well. Similarly, it applies to other dialects as well. Undoubtedly, speaking or using any Chinese dialects have their pros and cons: Pros As any local dialects are perceived and signified as a continuity of their ancestral roots. It fosters a sense of cordiality and establishes closer relationship, cohesion, synergy, supports or cooperations among people who speak the same dialect. Cons It has its limitations in the usage. It could pose unnecessary misunderstanding and suspicion among different dialect speaking clans/circles, as people from the different dialect groups might not be able to understand and grasp the contents and meanings of one specific dialect used. In acute contrast, Mandarin Chinese alone is the most widely spoken native language in the world: nearly a billion within China alone and 1.2 billion worldwide. That is why Mandarin Chinese or (Pǔtōnghuà), the “common speech,” is officially adopted as one of the official languages in Singapore during its independence. Despite all the pros and cons, the most key thing we should do is to find commonality and preserve the insignificant differences between the Mandarin Chinese and the respective Chinese dialects. As, it only does more good than harm. The relevant authority should seriously weigh in the overall situation now and then, and making bold decision by allowing/permitting more local operas, films and dramas of respective Chinese dialects be broadcasted and performed in the mainstream media.   Teo Kueh Liang (Mr)      Read More →

Several reports from the western media, and from Channel NewsAsia and SCMP of Hong Kong said that the wave of covid infections had overwhelmed the health system in China and covid deaths were soaring. They suggested that the official statistics of covid deaths in China was grossly under-reported due to a change in definition by the China authority (which they suggested was unjustified). Several media mentioned that the daily covid deaths in China has probably reached 5,000. If this is extrapolated for 365 days, the death would be between 1 to 2 million (which was carried in several reports). There was a positive observation by a German journalist (from the DW media, I think) that things are returning to normal in Beijing. There is no more queues in front of fever centers and drug stores. He thinks that the wave is probably over in Beijing. He said that the challenges could lie ahead for the other provinces that do not have the medical facilities in the cities. I will monitor the reports and make a critical judgment between reliable and smearing reports. Each comment represents the opinion of a journalist based on what he saw and hear. The journalist may or may not be honest in his or her reporting, or may analyze the situation wrongly. Let me take the figure of 5,000 covid deaths. I consider it to be normal. This figure may persist for several weeks, not will not continue for 1 year. If I take 8 weeks, the figures will reach 250,000 deaths. Without covid, there are 10 million deaths in China. With the spread of the covid infections, it is likely that some of these "normal deaths" would be from people who are infected by covid. It is also possible that the covid infections accelerated their deaths. The 250,000 projected deaths represent 2.5% of the normal deaths. This is not an alarming figure. Even if the covid deaths reach 1 million, it represents 10% of normal deaths. Again, I would not be alarmed. If it passes 2 million deaths (based on a wider definition of covid deaths used in western countries), I might be worried.   Tan Kin Lian      Read More →