TR EMERITUS

I have always doubted the shifting of the Vaccinie efficacy goal poles from prevention of Infection & transmission to prevention of "serious illness, hospitalization & Death". But even so, by the look at this data trend, sooner or later the goal poles will most probably moved out of the field!   Goh Meng Seng      Read More →

Recently, our company had internship from local universities, 25 year old undergraduate was sent to us. He worked directly with me in a team of engineers, he was tall handsome and young. He was very fair and we asked him why his skin is like snow, he said his gene from his parents, they are from Northern China, came to Singapore 28 years ago. Of course, this is something, we did not anticipate a guy with no Chinese accent, speaking like local is actually a Singaporean born in Singapore. He is a very hardworking engineer, we have no complaints and our manager is also very happy with his work. So during many breaks, we talked about Singapore, the issues and the future. He like many Singaporeans are very straight, he did not try to sound political nor beating around the bush. He said he lives in Woodlands, 4 room flat bought many years ago, now his location is supported by thousands of global talents from Malaysia and China. He finds himself a foreigner in his own country, which is strange. I added, your parents from China too, surely they would be glad and welcomed these compatriots, especially from China. He said no, his parents actually complained that the place is overcrowded, cost of living is very high and these new migrants are not the same quality, they are rowdy and uncultured. Irony isn't it?! The next shocking thing he said, there are so many uncertainties about his future since he will be graduating soon. As he could see, companies are preferring to hire foreign engineers than locals. He concludes that because most of the managers are foreign born and would prefer to hire their own natives, and he could see that quite clearly. As a local born here, he would be discriminated and he sees a lot of his graduate friends have problems landing jobs, most either underemployed, self employed or took more than 1 to 2 years to land jobs. The funny part is he said if he was a PRC turned new citizen, maybe easier to get jobs with Chinese companies in Singapore! His parents told him to try to migrate if he can, Singapore has no more future, the good times are now passed. He commented that public housing now near million, he probably cannot afford plus there is no job security in Singapore that 30 years loan would not solve the money problem. And after watching all the dramas in real life, MSM and social media; he said he needs to get out but don't know how. Our MSM have many sponsored surveys and reports saying: 1. Best retirement fund in Asia 2. Happiest country 3. Abundance of opportunities 4. Everything is affordable, including BTOs. 5. Global talents create jobs for locals I mentioned to him all the above and many other surveys saying we are the best in so many things and our lives could not be worst since millions of global talents are coming in as tourists to land jobs. He looked at me, smiled and said, "You actually believe in this BS?!!"   Debbie Wong      Read More →

The last comparable friendships to Putin and Xi were probably Stalin and Hitler, Krushchev and Mao, or Mao and Ho. One figures; given the asymmetry, it might be useful to keep in mind when thinking about both the motivations for such friendships. This Xi/Putin partnership is not based solely on economic considerations, nor is it based on Russia's military invasion of Ukraine; the foundation is in the determination to end America's domination over the world. Problems are expected but they are not going to break the cooperation between Russia and China. Ever since Trump kicked off the trade war, followed by more severe measures against China from the Biden administrations, it is clear that the US sees China as a competitor verging on being the enemy. China knows it too. One has never seen US make such strategic blunder before; ; actions that accelerated the China-Russia alliance, but the question is for what? China and Russia have different political ideologies and have always distrusted one another...."Frenemies" with daggers drawn. Their mutual dislike has spilled over into actual violence within modern memory (Sino-Soviet border conflict of 1969); their mutual distrust paved the way for the Sino-Soviet split, and the State-Capitalist trade liberalization policies. China is now buying Russian coal and crude oil and keeping Mr. Putin afloat -- all while the US/world heads into a deep inflation and Europe heads into a bitterly cold winter. Chinese leaders will be watching Russia's attempted blitzkrieg closely, as they evaluate their own chances of success in invading Taiwan. I think this will be an eye opener for them. At this point it appears the lessons their “big brother” is teaching them is what not to do. They're using Putin's weird impotent empiricism and overinflated self-importance as a test case to see how things would go with the West if they were to cut off exports or attack Taiwan. Right now it's not looking like an experiment to replicate. Yes, Russia has tough special forces and expeditionary brigades with experience in Syria and around the world, but the fact they are sending desperately under-trained raw recruits into Ukraine suggests there is substantial rot in the Russian domestic army forces. The core demographic fact is that Russia doesn't have the population of young men to sacrifice in the war. When you look at the population/age statistics, there is a big hole in the tranches of men ages 18-30; the group that populates the ranks of an army. China too realized that support for Russia has come at a huge cost, especially because China is so integrated with International trade. My guess is that China will support Russia, but only in ways that make Russia more dependent on China. No military support or approval of attacking a sovereign state. But since EU sanctions are going to be a huge damper on the Russian raw-materials state, China will be happy to buy more wheat and oil -- at fire sale prices, of course. And I expect China might be willing to step in to support Russia's financial system and Central Bank, if needed. Russia and China both call their relationship as a friendship with “no limits”. This pithy statement has profound yet different meaning for each country. No limit to Russia’s desperation and neediness of how much it wants China to be its savior from its economic calamity and loss of face on the world stage. For China it means there is no limits to how much it can now exploit Russia’s weakness by procuring oil, gas and other natural resources for dirt cheap price. The fear of a Russian-Chinese alliance is highly-exaggerated in the western media. Instead, it is a marriage of convenience between a militaristic natural resources-rich former Imperial nation, Russia, and a rising economic superpower, China. President Xi-Jinping/Chinese leadership looks toward the future, while Vladimir Putin eyes the past. Biden can help if he wants to do so. He would be wise to open up economic and strategic talks with China to entice them into making the right choices. A new China trade deal or economic pact with the US would go a long way in this regard. It ain't democracy, but its is a step toward long term stability. Without this or something similar, China risks adherence to its historical pattern: decades of emperor-like rule, followed by collapse, massive societal disruption, (this time with sticky, global, implications). China seems, to me, to be an empire that has existed in much the same form for thousands of years with a few hiccups along the way when one dynasty has been deposed by a new one. The idea of the mass of people devolving their inherent power on the few has never been part of it, except in the mendacious statements of Mao and his circle. China and Russia have never been democratic. I believe the best hope for these countries is something like a constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary system. The mass under Xi, seems to accept the idea of a centralized dictatorial ruling structure that maintains the order in which business can thrive. People who desire a more freewheeling political system that includes the freedoms, are misfits in the established system. Stepping aside is both patriotic, and systemically necessary if China is to weather the next 10-30 years as a viable entity and not one that episodically spews its instability across Asia and the world. This won't solve the problem of Ukraine, or of Taiwan. But it may open up options for all concerned and offer this era of humans a soft landing in terms of regional war (Ukraine, Taiwan) and global war. Not a bad process to initiate, and not a bad outcome for the near term. One can hope.   Sjorne Shen      Read More →