TR EMERITUS

From ABC News 25 March 2010 By economics correspondent Stephen Long The growth in household debt and house prices in Australia is unsustainable and the nation must at some stage hit "peak debt', according to a senior partner in one of the world's biggest management consultancies. "In the past ten years our household debt has grown much faster and to a much higher level than it is in places like the the UK and the US where we tend to look at them and say, 'my goodness, look at that incredibly high level of household debt'," Michael Rennie, managing partner of McKinsey and Co for Australia and New Zealand, told ABC Radio's PM program. "You have to ask yourself, 'when does it become a problem?'" Asked about predictions that house prices would double this decade, he said: "They're saying they are going to double in the next ten years because of supply and demand: that there's a lack of supply, and demand is going to increase because of the increase in population in the cities, etcetera. "But you have to ask yourself, if you look at the research that's been done over the past couple of years by APRA and others on the percentage of households paying more than 30 per cent [of gross household income on mortgage repayments] which is the comfort level for their mortgages, and incomes aren't going to double, you've got to say somewhere along the line that is all not going to add up. "We hit peak debt at some point. We hit a level that is well above people's sustainability." A global study by McKinsey and Co is also predicting that the world faces at least five more years of constrained growth as economies "deleverage", or unwind excessive levels of debt. Although China will partially insulate Australia, we will not be immune, and it will hit exports. "About 21 per cent of our goods exports and about 27 per cent of our services exports in the past five years have gone to countries that are going to go through this deleveraging in the next five years," Michael Rennie says. His comments come as new estimates from the ABS show a surge in Australia's population. More than 450,000 people were added to the populous, which grew by 2.1 per cent last year to almost 23 million. Economists say the rapid population growth will underpin growth in GDP and bolster house prices. But Michael Rennie argues that, even with the population growth, it is impossible for house prices to keep outstripping incomes. The growth in population will also add to overall demand and could encourage the RBA to lift interest rates. "We can imagine this scenario where there is tightening monetary policy ....meaning that people are going to pay more for their mortgages; interest rates are going to go up," he explained. "At the same time, you have a supply and demand issue with housing which means the price of houses is going to go up. "A the same time, incomes are not going to go up at the same level and, at some time, all those three are going to come together and it is not going to be sustainable."   Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/25/2856323.htm  Read More →

From ABC News  25-March 2010  By Ashley Hall Leading population experts are calling for an inquiry into the nation's growth as the number of people living in Australia passes 22 million. The latest figures from the Bureau of Statistics show that nearly half a million people were added to the population in the last year. Two-thirds of that growth was attributed to immigration. Dr Bob Birrell from the Centre for Population and Urban Research at Monash University says the most important aspect of the latest figures is how fast they have shot up. "The main item of note is the pace with which we're growing, which has propelled us across the 22 million barrier," he said. "We're growing at about 2.1 per cent per annum, which is way above other developed countries. For example, Canada grew by 0.8 per cent - it was less than 1 per cent - in the same period." The growth rate of 2.1 per cent is faster than many Asian countries including India, Indonesia and the Philippines. It is also almost double the rate of the world's population growth. Dr Birrell says there are two factors driving Australia's particularly fast growth. "We have seen an upsurge in fertility in the past five or six years. That's contributing," he said. "But the main factor is the surge in net overseas migration." Sixty-six per cent of the population growth was caused by net overseas migration to Australia, which was 297,400 people. That was 9,000 higher than the previous year. Dr Birrell says an inquiry would widen the scope of the population debate from "totally economic" to more social. "There's no input into the setting of current migration programs as far as the quality of life in the major cities is concerned," he said. "There's no social focus at all. The cities are simply left to cope." Dr Birrell says that without that consideration, Australia's larger cities are destined to suffer social problems as increasing numbers of migrants gravitate toward low-cost housing areas.   Seeking sustainable growth   Australia's population is forecast to grow to 35 million by 2050. While Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has made it clear he supports big population growth, there is a chorus of voices questioning the merit of that. Labor backbencher Kelvin Thomson argues Australia should cap its population at 26 million. And both the Federal Opposition and the Greens want an inquiry into how many people the nation can support. Today four of the nation's leading population experts added their voices to that campaign in a briefing at the University of Queensland. University of Adelaide Professor Graeme Hugo said Australia should not be adopting "unsubstantiated, aspirational population targets". "We should be looking at the science and looking at what people want, to see how we can achieve this holy grail of growth with sustainability," he said. "The last time we had a population inquiry in Australia was in 1971, and the world has changed - Australia has changed. "We really do need, I believe, to have a fully informed, multi-disciplinary examination of Australia's future population, but one also which engages the community to develop what I believe could be a shared vision for the future generations of Australia." Professor Hugo was joined in that call by the CSIRO's Dr Graham Turner, and professor Martin Bell and associate professor John Minnery, both from the University of Queensland. Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/25/2856450.htm?section=justin  Read More →

By Jumong Lee Yo Won may not be the most beautiful or sexy Korean actress, but she certainly swept many off their feet with her near flawless and dexterous acting skills in Queen Seondeok. Whether as the young Princess Deokman or the mature Queen Seondeok, Lee Yo Won is able to capture the hearts of many men with her innocent charm. Gallery: [imagebrowser id=70] [Photos collated from various sources]   Profile: Name: 이요원 / Lee Yo-won Profession: Actress Birthdate: 1980-Apr-09 Birthplace: Seoul, South Korea Height: 170cm Weight: 48kg Star sign: Aries Blood type: B Family: Husband/professional golfer Park Jin Woo and one daughter, cousin/actor Lee Joong Moon Recognition: 2009 MBC Drama Awards: Best Couple Award (with Kim Nam Gil in Queen Seon Duk) 2009 MBC Drama Awards: Female Top Excellence Award (Queen Seon Duk) 2007 SBS Acting Awards: Top Excellence Award for Surgeon Bong Dal Hee 2007 SBS Acting Awards: Popularity Award for Surgeon Bong Dal Hee 2001 KBS Acting Awards: Most Popular Actress 2001 Blue Dragon Awards: Best New Actress Award  [Source: Dramawiki]   Related articles: >> Preview of Queen Seondeok    Read More →