TR EMERITUS

WP Lee Li Lian is no scholar. She went to Ngee Ann poly before getting an external degree while working. She was voted in by the residents in Punggol East, beating Dr Koh Poh Koon from the PAP. A passion driven professional in wanting to see Singaporeans being in the forefront will be spearheading a community with his sincerity and willing to work ground up to make it happen. So the money equation to attract brains with money BUT without the social element is proving to be a fallacy. All round we could see Singaporeans from the many households driven to despair in thinking how to afford a house, a wife or husband, kids and so on – the very structure that should be in place for Singaporeans. Instead we see foreigners driving expensive cars zipping around much to the annoyance of Singaporeans. Even in the mid-range PMET positions we see many foreigners. Fundamentally any thinking MP will realise that once you open an outlet and the floodgates for foreigners the culture will dictate and next to no time you will see villages from Philippines in the retail sector, Indians in the IT and banking sector and PRCs in property and what not manning the choice positions in the name of foreign talents. Where were our eyes and ears. So slowly the Singaporean who should be leading the country have taken a back seat and the backlash of GE 2011 is just a surface indication of what is to come in GE 2016. Singaporeans have become more discerning and are learning to question failed policies. If they do not get answers consistent with having Singaporeans First as the overriding factor the ebbing of confidence will be deep rooted and we know what is to come. In short money cannot buy talents – the more you give the more lax they become as we have seen. Paper meritocracy is not true meritocracy. The proof is in the pudding and increasingly we see many MPs can't even articulate convincingly. If they are in single member constituency as the previous early generation of leaders were, the best will have surfaced and they would have the eyes and ears to the ground knowing that if they do not perform by putting Singaporeans First rather than giving lame excuses that we are not talented the Opposition will bring talented MPs and bring a turn around. GRCs will not be a buffer for the future. If Aljunied GRC could do it there are many more preparing the ground for many more Aljunied GRCs. So a shrewd and ground breaking idea will be to turn all to SMCs and allow the best local Singaporean talents to surface. One will see the deep and motivating difference in these Singaporeans taking the lead and show the way without money in millions as a dice to drive them to politics without the deep seated desire to see Singaporeans in the forefront and bring that change to a more heartwarming Singaporean First and not in words. Today we see better and better educated Singaporeans joining the opposition ranks not for opposing for opposing sake but to assure a balance that when all things considered it is the Singaporeans who will shoulder the responsibility of defending the country and the resilience to do so.   G T Raj * Comment appeared in: World Cup a nightmare to PAP’s highly paid ministers    Read More →

The media reported today (7 Jul) that Temasek Holdings would likely be reporting a lower performance in terms of its returns for last financial year. This is due to the lacklustre performance by Singapore stocks and Chinese bank counters over the past year. Presently, Chinese banks and Singapore stocks make up a major component of Temasek's portfolio. According to CIMB Research, Temasek may have increased the value of its holdings by about 4 percent to a record $224 billion in the year to March 31. China Construction Bank and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China are among the top four bank stocks in Temasek’s portfolio. The share prices of Chinese banks declined as China’s economy heads for the weakest expansion in 24 years amid rising debt and a clampdown on shadow banking. China Construction Bank lost 13% in Singapore dollar terms, while Industrial & Commercial Bank of China fell 11%. Standard Chartered lost 18%. Temasek's stake in China Construction Bank alone was valued at $17.8 billion as of March 31 and comprises 8% of its total portfolio. Analysts estimated that financial firms made up 31% of Temasek’s total holdings as of March 2013. “They (Temasek) built up very big stakes in the Chinese banks, and it’s now going to be very difficult to divest that without making a loss,” one analyst said. Also, Singapore’s Straits Times Index (FSSTI) lost 3.6% in the 12 months through March. Temasek is the biggest shareholder in about a third of the 30 members in the index. Its biggest listed holding by value, Singapore Telecommunications Ltd, rose 1.7%. DBS gained 1.1%. SIA lost 3.7% during the period. China accounts for 23% of Temasek's portfolio, second only to Singapore's 30% in terms of country mix, according to its annual report last year. According to Temasek's website [Link], its Total Shareholder Return (TSR), which measures compounded annual returns, including dividends but not capital injections, for the financial year ended 31 March 2013 (in Singapore dollar terms): 1-year TSR was 8.86% 3-year TSR was 4.94%. 10-year TSR was 13% 20-year TSR was 14% 30-year TSR was 15% since inception in 1974, TSR was 16% Average risk-adjusted hurdle rates for Temasek have been around 8-9% through the years. Annualised core inflation in Singapore has been about 2.0% over the past 10 years, its website said. However, Temasek had a negative return of 30% in the year ended March 2009. According to the website of the Institutional Investor’s Sovereign Wealth Center, Temasek is the world’s 10th-biggest state investor. GIC ranks 5th. The world’s biggest is Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, with an estimated US$869 billion of assets under management. Olam International In March this year, Temasek offered to take over Olam International valued at $5.3 billion at the time. When the offer closed, Temasek and its related parties own or control 80% of Olam. However, prior to the takeover announcement, Olam’s share price had run up considerably since the first week of February 2014, when the stock market re-opened after a short break for Chinese New Year. From a low of $1.425 (4 Feb), Olam went up almost in a straight line to $2 (12 Mar), taking a 2-week breather (21 Feb – 4 Mar) only at the $1.70 – $1.80 level. For the 3 months prior to its run, Olam actually saw a deterioration in share price from $1.58 to $1.42. Olam ran up despite less than stellar results. On 14 February 2014, Olam released their results for the second quarter and half year ended 31 December 2013 [Link] which showed that profit dropped 12.5%. Trading volume jumped along with the jump in share price. For the 3 months prior to Olam’s price rise, average daily volume was a mere 3 million shares. When Olam’s price went up, daily volume rose to as high as 18.29 million shares (11 Mar) and averaged 9 million shares, 3 times its average volume of 3 million shares for the previous 3 months. There has been a general rise in farm commodity prices recently. The S&P GSCI Agricultural Index has advanced 13% this year, with price surges in coffee and cocoa. But even given this scenario, the outsized gains enjoyed by Olam on the back of hefty volume cannot be explained. At 6.52 a.m. on 14 March 2014, Olam announced through SGX that it was the subject of a takeover bid by Temasek Holdings subsidiary Breedens Investments at $2.23 per share. It is very disquieting that Olam only chose to request a trading halt as it was putting the finishing touches to the bid, and not earlier when the price ran up on heavy volume for over a month. Even more disquietingly, SGX never once queried Olam on its trading activity. In other words, SGX never once publicly asked Olam if it knew of any reason(s) for the surges in price and volume, which SGX is supposed to do as a responsible regulator. Facing mounting criticisms and market talk in social media, SGX finally issued the following "lacklustre" statement on 16 March, titled “SGX clarifies Olam International issue” [Link]: Market commentaries noted that in the six weeks from 3 Feb 2014, Olam’s share price increased 34.8%, higher than those of its peers such as Wilmar International which rose 11.2% and Noble Group which rose 12.6% over the same period. During the period, the Straits Times Index rose 2.3%. Such comparisons should be conducted with care as the financials and outlook of individual companies may differ even if they are within the same industry. While we do not prescribe a view of value or pricing of stocks, we note that of the 13 analysts who issued reports on Olam in February 2014, seven raised their target price by an average of 10.4% with the highest increase being 21.4%. The 13 analysts had target prices of $1.50 to $2.00 for Olam. In the case of Wilmar, eight analysts raised their target price by an average of 2.6% with the highest increase being 4.8%. For Noble, one analyst raised the target price in February. Trading in these three stocks were within the price ranges set out in the research reports, suggesting they were trading within the general market view of these stocks with Olam shares reflecting a more positive market view.  Read More →

A Singapore Airlines Boeing 777 HOUSTON (4 Jul) - Two commercial jets came dangerously close to each other Thursday night at Bush Intercontinental Airport. A Singapore Airlines 777, a jumbo jet, flew within 200 feet vertically, and within about a half-mile horizontally of a Delta Airlines A320. FAA rules require that aircraft remain separated by a half-mile vertically, and 3 miles horizontally. "The pilot of the Singapore jet did not level off as required, causing a loss of required separation," Lynn Lunsford of the FAA said The Singapore Airlines jet had just taken off. The Delta flight was on approach from Salt Lake City. "Had they collided there would have been hundreds of deaths. It would have been a very large aviation catastrophe," Joshua Verde, a Houston-based aviation expert, told Local 2. [Read more:  Click 2 Houston]  Read More →