TR EMERITUS

Winter is coming in every way...the health crisis facing the world is at an infection point, and comparisons to the deadly Spanish flu in 1918 are appropriate to show how mismanagement of an initial outbreak of disease can be manifested in an even deadlier second-wave or third-wave recurrences in the US and Europe now. A nation with the scientific and medical expertise of the United States should have been able to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic and should have been able to avoid or minimize a deadly second-wave. Decades of ascendancy of a socio-economic theory that advocated looking out for their own interest first and foremost, I'd argue, has already done a pretty good job of preparing them for what they're "about to become." It would seem that's an unfortunate byproduct of allowing the market to determine the good and the consequent privatization of everything that has been atrophying for years under its' own neoliberalism that failed to 'act collectively' in the face of a crisis. To some extent, it might be said, that the USA is betting on a vaccine, rather than undertaking the vigorous efforts that eradicating the virus with massive testing and contact tracing would entail. With the other coronaviruses MERS and SARS, the companies that were developing vaccines never got to commercialize them, because, in the developed countries, the outbreaks were ended by identifying those infected, tracing all of those in contact with anyone infected and isolating those individuals as necessary. That is occurring now in countries like Taiwan, NZ that are making good progress. Besides political pressure to develop a vaccine so quickly, there is a massive investment riding on a vaccine for hundreds of companies, many of which have already invested in the infrastructure needed to quickly produce and distribute the vaccine once approved. This massive pre-investment increases the time pressure and incentive to 'cut corners'. While a vaccine will probably eventually come, it's effectiveness and distribution remain as issues that can only be addressed with time. There's no vaccine for SARs, the common cold, etc. in spite of working on them for decades in many cases. Even if vaccination takes place on a large scale at some point, there will be lack of knowledge about when immunity kicks in and how long it will last. The phenomenon of asymptomatic shedding means, even if you got vaccinated and you feel good, you might still be infecting people. And you might experience other clinical issues in the future. Even flu vaccines are a crap shoot at best. Last years vaccines weren't much help against the strains that appear. And viruses also mutate. As of now there are somewhere between 6-12 different strains of C19, and we'll see more. So even a C19 vaccine may end up being no different from the flu - that it protects against certain strains only, and isn't a universal shield. Further, many virus vaccines don't confer permanent immunity. They last several months at best. Given the massive amount of political pressure and monetary investment riding on the quick development of a vaccine, it's totally reasonable for anyone to be skeptical. Maybe the trade-off of a hastily, not 100% proven vaccine will be worth it to protect certain populations. Otherwise, we are simply on a fool's errand to believe a vaccine will come along to serve as a silver bullet, thus ending the pandemic which will in turn allows life to "return to normal". But if others like me, want to adopt a more careful wait and see approach and aren't eager to line up on day one for a China, Russia rushed and approved vaccine, it’s fairly obvious, by now, that getting back to a pre-COVID way of life may not be the most realistic of goals. We should be focused on how to adapt to our new conditions. It's one thing for governments to "open up the economy". It's quite another thing for people to risk their lives participating. I don't understand the expectation of an effective, safe vaccine in the very near future. I hope we get one but I wouldn't bet the bank on it.   SojoüRner        Read More →

I suggested that safe entry recording and contact tracing should be abandoned. They take up a lot of resources and give unreliable results. Instead, we should focus on dealing with the symptomatic cases. I discussed this issue with a friend. Friend - Mr. Tan. I read that the asymptomatic cases can also spread the virus. Are you suggesting that they be allowed to move freely in the community? TKL - I believe that these people are already moving in the community and spreading the virus. The infections are probably mild and do not become serious. The authority did not report on the number of cases that are located through contact tracing. I believe that this number is very small. TKL - I read a report from WHO that the spread by asymptomatic cases is low and not serious. It is the symptomatic cases that become "super spreaders". This coincides with my common sense. A small number may become serious, but we can catch them when they become symptomatic (i.e. the corona virus has reach a serious stage). See this report from WHO; [LINK] Friend - Some of these asymptomatic cases may spread the virus to the vulnerable people, i.e. those who are older and have medical conditions. It could lead to more hospital admissions and deaths. TKL - The vulnerable people should take steps to protect themselves from exposure. They should stay at home and use masks and avoid close contacts with their family members. When they become aware of the risks, they will take the precautions. This is the reason that account for lower deaths of vulnerable people in recent months, as compared to the earlier months. People have become more aware. Friend - There is a report of a large increase in new cases leading to a second wave and third wave of infections. Surely, with more people being infected, we should step up the contact tracing? TKL - The large increase occurs in other countries and not in Singapore. We should not be over-reacting to the situation in other countries as their conditions are different. For example, the climate is getting colder and the virus becomes more active in cold climate. TKL - There is also another reason for the large increase. The authority is carrying out more testing for the virus. With more testings, more mild cases are being detected, especially with younger people (who are not vulnerable to the disease). This is why the daily deaths remain constant and do not increase with the spike in new cases. Friend - If we stop contact tracing, we may allow the virus to spread out of control. At that time, our hospitals will be overwhelmed. TKL - This may happen, but it may not. We should not take extreme measures to prevent a bad situation that may not arise. We can stop contact tracing and see if there is a spike in symptomatic cases. If this occurs, and I do not think that it will, we can always resume our safe entry recording and contact tracing. Friend - I am worried about the large number of imported cases that are being reported every day. TKL - This number is actually quite small. Most of these cases are mild and the cases are being asked to self isolate. The virus will not spread to other people. Actually, this number is not alarming. We are seeing this number because we are testing all incoming travelers. Maybe 1% of the travelers are being detected. If we test a large number of local people, we may also see a similar proportion with positive results. Friend - Surely, we are already focusing on detecting the symptomatic cases through temperature taking - which is part of the safe entry protocol? TKL - We can continue temperature checking but do not need to use manpower. We can set up temperature checking booths - which do not require to be manned. We can encourage every resident to have the temperature taken three times a day. More importantly, we should make it easy for for people or other symptoms (cough, shortness of breath) to visit special clinics for the covid tests. These tests should be free for people with symptoms. These special clinics should be made easily accessible to the public. These clinics can also administer the tests to people without symptoms, but they should pay a subsidized fee (say, 50% of the commercial rate). The government should also give an allowance for people who are required to stay at home after being tested as positive. TKL - If we focus our attention to make it easy for people with symptoms to be tested, we are likely to stop the spread of the virus more effectively. It is now time for us to try a new approach, instead of continuing with the same approach that was adopted for the past nine months. Friend - Should we stop the circuit breaker and allow people to carry out their normal activities? TKL - Yes. It is quite safe to do so. We can still encourage them to wear a mask in crowded places and to adopt social distancing. This can be made voluntary. People already know how to take the appropriate measures relative to the real risks. We should not continue the lockdown as it is harmful to the financial and mental health of the people. Do you agree?   Tan Kin Lian        Read More →

Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean I refer to the news that about 3000 current and former civil servants were under compensated due to some HR system errors. Government to make-up $10 million shortfall. There is no criminality in this and human mistakes do happen from time to time. I totally understand it and I accept that, however, I feel that this issue could have been better handled. The minister-in-charge of our Public Service is Senior Minister, Teo Chee Hean. This matter was made public yesterday. The $10 million dollars that is going to be paid out is public funds and not money left behind by some rich departed Ah Kong. It is a lot of public money. I am disappointed that he, being the minister in charge of Public Service, instead of coming out visibly to show his face, explain, apologise and reassure Singaporeans that they will do better next time has been totally quiet so far. Totally quiet! I sincerely hope that he is not wishing that our suckerporeans continue with their can't think and don't care mentality and again, heng ah, boh tai ji la. Observing and thinking Singaporeans can decide for themselves if that is a sign of strong leadership that we have or the lack of it. If it were me, I would have front it and done all that yesterday. Think.   Simon lim      Read More →