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作者:冀居·谢 2010年2月22日早报 《让辩论在明确的事实上驰骋》是难得一见、允执厥中的社论。虽然还是拖了一条烂尾巴：『基于让社会舆论贴近理性的需要，建屋局(HDB)理应延续至今公布详细数据的做法，让极端和非理性的观点，在舆论市场中没有立锥之地。』——虽口口声声说要“理性辩论”，却难逃“未审先判”。 社论说：『建屋局近日开始陆续公布的2008年住户抽样调查报告，可谓来得及时，其详细数据，不但让民众可以对公共住房 (public housing) 现状有一个全面性的了解，还可以让大家在具体而明确的事实基础上，进行理性的讨论。』——可是根据这些薄弱数据的解读，我想引出的疑问比“明确的事实基础”还多，这是用数据“骗人不晓”的乌鱼战术。 【有8000户家庭调查样本的结果却发现，约86%的受访住户认为组屋“屋”有所值；此外，近81%住户对自己有能力负担及拥有组屋感到自豪。当然，这并不否定还未购买组屋的年轻人就没有焦虑感……】 这完全是卖家观点，问题是这些屋主是在哪一个年份、或“朝代”买下组屋的？是在1990年吴作栋接棒当总理之前还是之后、是在2004年李显龙接棒当总理之前 还是之后？如果是在吴作栋之前，那时买下的组屋所需数千至数万元而已，如果是在吴作栋和李显龙之间的，那时也是十几万一间，这样的成本，谁不认为屋有所 值，和“对自己有能力负担及拥有组屋感到自豪”呢？ 【2008年的组屋住户有88%是新加坡公民，永久居民为8%，外国人只有4%。】 这个更是“难得糊涂”，如果建屋局或马宝山(Mah Bow Tan)有诚意的话，应该定量分析这88%的新加坡公民里面，有多少是在吴作栋之前就住在组屋、有多少是在李显龙之前拥有组屋、又有多少是从97之后接受中港移民(Chinese Hong Kong immigrants)的这个时间点上？ 因为80%以上的国人都住进组屋，似乎是在吴作栋时代已经成就（那时的PR几乎都是和我们有历史渊源的马来西亚人），那么12%的新移民和外国人是什么时候形成的，人们要知道的是近年来新移民对组屋市场的冲击。 同样，永久居民属于一个变数（有买了组屋还不变公民的吗？那可亏大了），这个数字是怎样在这十年内变化的，并且每年有多少人脱离这个数据成为公民，其中突变的最高点是发生在什么时候？ 【建屋局的数据表明，在以年轻族群为主的首次预购组屋者当中，竟然有半数在抽签到选购机会后决定放弃购屋，无怪乎接受本报采访的房地产经纪，都对于如此高比例 的弃权者感到讶异。在建屋局去年推出的11个预购组屋项目中，平均申请率将近四倍，一些项目甚至出现七人抢购一个单位的热潮。】 这个『半数在抽签到选购机会后决定放弃购屋』有点语焉不详，就是说有70人抢10间组屋，结果10个抽到的人有一半（即5个）不行使购物权，那么之后还有没有第二轮抽签呢等等……是不是表面上报章报道 说预购组屋七人抢一间，实际上有时还卖不完？那么这5个应该归回到另外60个抽不到的，那么就不止一半的人参与投标而不买，因为建屋局对这65人根本不知 道他们心里想什么，制度出了问题，他们还不知检讨？ 【另一个容易引发情绪化讨论的面向，是组屋真实成本与津贴售价的差异。】 这个问题自詹时中(Chiam See Tong)驾富士维根(Volkswagen)到处竞选拉票时，建屋局已经无法说清楚了，何况去年詹时中还庆祝连任国会议员25年，说起来已经是搁置了四分之一个世纪的老问题。 其中关键的莫过于土地成本。 有人甚至辩论说建屋局根本没有土地成本的问题，因为这些都是从建国初期，通过立法手段豪夺过来的土地。你有听说过建屋局向公开市场购地建组屋吗？ 这些库存到现在还用不完，甚至还以市价出售给私人发展商去兴建购物商场、公寓和洋房。马宝山说的津贴其实只是把土地时价算进去的惺惺作态，这一层画皮只要戳破，肯定损失不少选票。 来源：大马论坛  Read More →

Written by Our Correspondent National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan has dismissed reverting back to the previous Registration for Flat System as the build-to-order (BTO) scheme introduced in 2001 by HDB "has reduced uncertainty for both flat buyers and the Government." He was posed the question by PAP MP Ho Geok Choo yesterday in Parliament. Under the BTO scheme, flats are built only when there is sufficient take-up of flats in a project and down payments have been made. According to Mr Mah, the old system caused the government to be left with some 31,000 unsold flats at some point in time: "HDB took five years to clear its stock of unsold flats. Having such a large stock of unsold flats is a waste of public money," he added. However, the present scheme failed to take into account the expected increase in population via immigration leading to a gross lack of supply of new flats and sky-rocketing prices today. According to figures from the Ministry of Home Affairs, there are nearly 100,000 immigrants including both new citizens and PRs in the year 2008 alone, but only 3,183 new flats were built in 2008: [Source: HDB Financial Report 2008/2009] As the flats are build based only on the projected take-up rate, it did not include the increased demand which were to come later on from the influx of immigrants. "Under the current speed of rolling out BTO projects, which is once a month now, the chances of the person being successful is actually very high," Mr Mah said. If this is really true, then there will not be so many first time home buyers who are unable to obtain a flat of their choice and neither will the recently launched BTO flats be so many times oversubscribed. Perhaps the fault lies with Singaporeans for being too "choosy" and Minister Mah, being the highest paid National Development Minister in the world is simply "caught off guard" (again).  Read More →

Written by Our Correspondent After being played out by the Romanians again and again over the double hit and run traffic accident involving Romanian diplomat Dr Silviu Ionescu which exposed his own naivete, Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo is fast running out of excuses to cover his own ineptitude. Dr Silviu Ionescu was implicated in a double hit and run road traffic accident at Bukit Panjang on 15 December 2009 which robbed the life of a 31 year old man Tong Kok Wai. Despite the gravity of his crime, he was allowed to leave Singapore three days after the accident when previous cases were usually solved within a day or two. There were no comments from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) other than a forgettable faux paus from George Yeo that "what happened was very bad." Defending the government's apparent lackluster approach in Parliament yesterday, George Yeo tried to use the "legal process" to soothe frayed nerves: "The circumstances of the accidents understandably made many Singaporeans very angry with Dr Ionescu. Some criticised the Singapore Government for not acting immediately to detain him.....I can fully understand the outrage many Singaporeans feel over the hit-and-run accidents and the tragic death of Mr Tong. However, we should never do anything that is not in keeping with due legal process nor descend into trial by media, otherwise we would weaken our own case. When Dr Ionescu left Singapore in December 2009, the police had not yet completed their investigations. In any case, we could not have prevented Dr Ionescu from leaving Singapore because, as a diplomat accredited to Singapore, he enjoyed diplomatic immunity and could not be detained," he added. As one netizen had pointed out, if the victim had been a VIP in Singapore, the response of the Singapore police and MFA would be radically different. To add salt to the injury, Dr Silviu Ionescu went on Romanian Television to accuse the Singapore government for "setting him" up. Though MFA had categorically denied the allegations, it surprisingly failed to follow up with legal action to sue Dr Silviu Ionescu for defamation. It was only then did MFA bother to summon the Romanian Ambassador Neagu to pass three diplomatic notes to him which begs the question on why it has failed to do so earlier. One of the notes called on the Romanian government to waive the diplomatic immunity for Mr Trusca, the driver of the vehicle to allow him to testify at the coroner's inquiry. The Straits Times subsequently broke the news that the Romanian government has agreed to waive Mr Trusca's immunity only to be refuted later by the Embassy that "the decision will be communicated to the Singapore authorities as soon as possible". Till today, no action has been taken either by the Singapore or Romanian prosecutors and Dr Silviu Ionescu is still happily enjoying his "holiday" in Romania as a free man. As Mr George Yeo put it succinctly, there is nothing much he can do except to "expect" the Romanian authorities to practise what they preach: "What we do next will depend on the outcome of our coroner's inquiry and the Romanian government's response to our requests. We are closely monitoring what the Romanian authorities are doing. We expect their actions to match the words of the Romanian Foreign Ministry spokesman and the assurances that the Romanian Ambassador has given us. But I must stress that whatever we do in Singapore must always be in conformity with our legal system and our international law obligations." He forgot to add that under the Singapore legal system, some people are more "equal" than others.  Read More →