TR EMERITUS

OPINION It is a forte of the PAP government to plan well ahead into the next few decades to chart the future direction and destiny of Singapore. Soon after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong assumed the leadership of the nation in 2003, he announced an ambitious plan to increase Singapore's population to 6.5 million people via immigration by 2030. The population of Singapore in 2003 is estimated to be around 4.2 million in 2003. Singapore's population hit the 5-million mark in June this year which represents an increase of 19 per cent in less than a decade. As Singapore's fertility rate is only 1.28 which is way below the replacement rate of 2.1, this means that the increase in the population is contributed largely by the influx of immigrants. Foreigners now made up 36 per cent of Singapore's population, up from 14 per cent in 1990. Of the 64 per cent which are citizens, the exact breakdown of old and new citizens is not revealed. According to Home Affairs Minister Wong Kan Seng, there are over 20,000 new citizens and 90,000 PRs last year. Naturally if there are so many foreigners settling down in Singapore, the demand for public housing will surely go up. However, it appears that the National Development Ministry had failed to plan ahead for Singapore's increased population now a few years ago as evident from the housing statistics provided by HDB in its financial report for FY2008/09. [Source: HDB Financial Report 2008/2009] As we can see from the above figures, the number of flats built by HDB for the last three years average about 3,ooo plus a year which is way below the number in the preceding 5 years. 55,515 flats were built between 2001 - 2005, or an average of about 11,000 flats a year. From 1996 - 2000, 158,621 flats were built. Why are there fewer flats built when the rate of immigration was increased during the same period of time between 2006 - 2008? It doesn't take an economist to figure out that the rising demand for public housing in the face of limited supply of flats will lead to inflation in prices with some first-time home buyers missing out on their choice of flats or being priced out of the market altogether. The prices of HDB resale flats hit a record high in June this year with that of new flats following suit. In two recent sale exercises of BTO and balance flats, they were more than 10 times over-subscribed, an indication of the severity of the housing shortage on the ground. [Source: HDB Financial Report 2008/2009] We can see from the above table that there were 9,870 bookings for new flats for only 3,183 units completed in 2008. Despite the rising unhappiness and resentment on the ground at the housing shortage and sky-high prices, HDB continued to insist initially that supply of new flats are adequate to meet the housing needs of Singaporeans. Following mounting criticisms from the public, HDB relented and promised to build more flats to meet the demand. The number of projects under construction increases by 74 per cent from 18,073 for FY07/08 to 31,058 for FY08/09 which begs the question on why HDB has not done so earlier. If the number of flats built between 2006 - 2008 are indeed sufficient to meet current housing needs as claimed by National Development Mah Bow Tan, why then did he reverse his stance abruptly and announce that HDB will increase the supply of new flats now? Is there a mistake made somewhere? The new flats under construction at present will only be completed in three to four years time. Is the PAP government planning ahead by building more flats to meet the expected increase in demand or "backwards" to do so only when the demand has far outstripped the supply? PAP MP Dr Muhammad Faisal chided Singaporeans for not "planning ahead" when purchasing their first homes. He quoted the example of a young couple who had registered for a flat in Punggol this year when they are expected to get marry only four years later in 2013. With due respect to Dr Faisal, it is both unreasonable and unrealistic of him to demand Singaporeans to plan ahead for their matrimony as human relationships are fickle and fragile by nature and it would be foolhardy to expect all couples who apply successfully for HDB flats to get married eventually. How can they know or guarantee that they will tie the knot a few years down the road? What if they break up after they pay the 5 per cent downpayment for their flat? It will automatically be forfeited by HDB. Using the current prices of between $250,000 - $350,000, this will result a loss of $12,500 - $17,500 for the couple or one of them, not a small sum by today's standards. If Dr Faisal or HDB wants to encourage Singaporeans to plan ahead and purchase their flats a few years before their marriage, then it should waive off the penalty for couples who are unable to complete the transaction because they are no longer together. It would be far easier and more practical for the PAP government to plan ahead by either increasing the supply of flats or reducing the intake of new citizens and PRs than to predict matters of the heart. Public housing has become a necessity for Singaporeans who cannot afford private housing. The onus is on the government to keep the prices of HDB flats affordable to enable Singaporeans to get a flat of their choice and not on the buyers to plan well ahead of schedule in their personal affairs so that they will have a readily available flat by the time they get married.  Read More →

By Peh Shing Huei from Straits Times Chinese President Hu Jintao's protege, Mr Hu Chunhua, has emerged as the front-runner in the race to be the country's future top leader after a reshuffle of provincial chiefs yesterday. The changes also included a new woman provincial party secretary, the first in more than two decades. Ms Sun Chunlan, 59, was catapulted from her position as a top unionist to Fujian party boss. But it was the appointment of 46-year-old Mr Hu as the new chief of the Inner Mongolia region which carried greater political significance, noted analysts of Chinese elite politics. 'He is now on the fast-track to being China's sixth-generation leader,' said Dr Bo Zhiyue, of the East Asian Institute in Singapore. The two Hus are not related. Going by the current trend of national leaders serving two terms of five years each, Mr Hu and the 'sixth generation' politicians are slated to take over as national leaders in 2022. President Hu, 66, is widely believed to be stepping down in 2012 and is likely to be succeeded by Vice-President Xi Jinping, 56, leader of the 'fifth generation'. The younger Hu, or 'Little Hu', is now in early pole position to ascend to the top position of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thereafter. His Inner Mongolia appointment means he is the fastest in his cohort - those in their 40s - to be made a provincial chief. Only Agriculture Minister Sun Zhengcai, also 46, has matched his speedy rise, after being promoted to the role of party boss of north-eastern Jilin province yesterday. But Mr Hu, who was the governor of northern Hebei province, is widely regarded as the one with a stronger political pedigree, having been the leader of the key Communist Youth League, the power base of President Hu. The Chinese studies graduate from Peking University has also spent 23 years working in Tibet, a tough posting which earned him respect from the Chinese Communist Party rank-and-file. By comparison, Mr Sun, an agriculture PhD-holder, spent his entire political career in Beijing. Both Mr Hu and Mr Sun were among five young leaders profiled by a state-run magazine in April this year - a sign that the quintet had been earmarked for higher office. But only two were promoted to provincial chiefs yesterday, indicating that they have surged ahead of the pack. The others appointed were above 50 years old, such as Ms Sun, new Henan boss Lu Zhangong and new Liaoning chief Wang Min. Analysts believe there is a good chance that the boyish-looking Mr Hu will even make the leap to the elite 25-man Politburo in 2012, when the CCP holds its 18th Party Congress. It would resemble the arrangement which Mr Hu Jintao went through, parachuting into the decision-making Politburo Standing Committee in 1992, a good decade before he took over the reins from Mr Jiang Zemin. But analyst Wang Zhengxu from the University of Nottingham's China Policy Institute warned that 'Little Hu' has an Achilles heel which his political rivals may exploit. 'His biggest weakness is that he has been working in poor places, including now Inner Mongolia. He lacks the experience of operating in the rich coastal provinces, which are important as China becomes a greater economic power,' he observed. - ST Republished from Straits Times on 1 December 2009  Read More →

Written by Our Correspondent An extra "cooling-off" day before polling day itself will be introduced at the next General election during which campaigning will not be allowed so that voters can reflect "calmly" on their decision. The announcement was made by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to the Singapore media in Cuba where he was attending the Commonwealth meetings. "The legislation is almost done now, but there has been a little bit of delay because we had one further thought, which is to extend the period between Nomination Day and Polling Day by one extra day and to use that extra day as a cooling off period before polling itself," he said. All campaigning including mass rallies, door-to-door visits and display of party logos and symbols in public places will be banned on the "cooling-off" day. The one exception will be party political broadcasts, which are televised on the eve of the polls to summarise the messages of the different political parties. This, alongside news reporting on the election, will not be affected. The new rule is likely to benefit the ruling party which has absolute control over the Singapore media including its only news agency and broadcast station. It is usually allocated a longer air time on TV than other political parties. The latest move probably stem from a need to pre-empt a "freak" election from happening as it did in the Malaysian general elections last year when the opposition won 82 seats in the federal parliament thereby denying the ruling Barisan Nasional its traditional two-thirds majority. The minimum period between Nomination Day and Polling Day will be extended from nine to 10 days to compensate for the extra cooling off day. Opposition parties have long complained about the short campaigning period which give them little time to highlight important issues to the voters. The campaigning period used to be as long as three months and it was only reduced to the current nine days after the PAP won the general election in 1963. During the 2006 elections, the rallies of opposition parties are attended by ten of thousands of Singaporeans in contrast to the paltry crowd at PAP rallies whose participants were offered free food and transport to be persuaded to attend in the first place. The extra "cooling-off" day will enable the PAP to use all organs of the state to sway the results in its favor and to lessen the impact of mass rallies. More importantly, it will also act as a buffer to allow it to salvage the situation should it make another PR mistake which may peeve off the voters like the Gomez incident in the last election. For a party which is used to having everything under its control, the "cooling-off" day is nothing more than another ploy to decrease the chances of the occurrence of a "freak" result.  Read More →