TR EMERITUS

Translated by Robin Chen 由尤金杨和杰里米Koh 国家发展部长马宝山最近证实了许多新加坡人严重的恐惧-尽管未来经济前景依旧不明朗，转售组屋 (resale flats) 的价格不但创下了新高，并将持续扶摇直上。 马宝山没有透露任何有关政府冷却楼市和降温的举措，令人信服的掀开保证组屋处于人人“买得起”价位的毯底秘密。 其实政府很容易大幅度降低售价。单靠一年内建造更多的新单位，取消现金超购估值（COVs）的天文数字，并限量永久居民一年内购买组屋单位，政府组屋的价格将立即下降到人人负担得起和稳定的水平。 虽然租屋价格的下降将使许多新加坡人受益.但他们不愿意采取适当措施迅速先发制人阻止房地产泡沫的形成,因为这不符合政府在政治和经济上的利益。 油价崩溃,导致不稳定的政治产生危机 在7月间召开的国会,回答议员有关建屋局应采取实施限制转售价格上升上限的提问时,国家发展部高级政务符部长指出，组屋仍然维持在新加坡人负担得起的价位。 她说： “'组屋价应体现新加坡人的财富，尤其是那些上世纪90年代中期在市场处高峰阶段买了负资产的人，物价稳步增长就“不是一个坏主意””。在过去10年吴作栋时代，认为组屋价格上升将为新加坡人创造财富的错误观念一直延续至今。 人民行动党从来不提醒新加坡人，却巧妙地利用有争议的办公室“纪录”，掩盖资产价格飘升下人民生活在高价自置居所的的统治。 1995年任总理的吴作栋在接见金吉居民时说道： “我们为你的资产增值了多少？在租屋提升初期，公开市场上低于$ 80,000的三房式单位，今天我被告知，房屋代理人可出价160 000元以上，你的资产在3年内已翻了一倍。你们大家做出了正确的选择，强烈支持组屋翻新提升计划并参加了表决。“ [源代码：http://stars.nhb.gov.sg/stars/tmp/gct19950115.pdf] 许多新加坡人信任政府和接受了组屋价格无情的上升，但没有意识到除非他们移居或降级住进小单位。他们也从未理解通货膨胀市场和利用租屋单位的价值。 如果政府允许组屋的价格下跌，甚至只要略低百分之5，任何在过去2年以高价买了单位的新加坡人将背上负资产的包袱。 本质上属于功利主义的社会，新加坡人必将对价格的下降导致他们损失，归咎于政府所采取的市场降温措施。 面临大选，人民行动党在这个重要的阶段，不能因政府允许组屋价格的下降，造成选民不满情绪的反弹和动乱，而最终失去关键的一票。 必须诱导新加坡人相信未来政府组屋的价格，因持续不断上升所带来巨大的财富，是由于人民行动党和政府的本事。 作为“大棒”升级使用争取选票 随着吴作栋先生14年前在金吉区的讲话，资产价值是因产业提升和翻新使得在转售政府组屋价格时增益。 自20世纪90年代，资产提升长期以来是每一届大选的议题，十分方便用来威胁选民投票支持人民行动党。 1997年，总理吴作栋承诺给与静山区居民单位设施的提升，终于人民行动党犹若布袋里装了很多好吃东西的选举选获胜球队。 2006年选举时刻，同样的胡萝卜在波东巴西和后港的居民面前摇来晃去。不幸的是，虽然该区居民像居住在别处的新加坡人一样需要支付税收，他们并没有上钩，老化租屋提升计划失去诱惑力。 这种“猪肉桶”的政策是行动党推出的独特品牌，近其所能以单位重售的价格引诱选民确保其政治霸权。倘若居民无法从他们出售的组屋获得丰厚的利润，它必将失效。 虽然像烧烤炉的公共园地，游泳池和街头似的足球场看似是重售单位的出售时不可或缺的设施（以后港和波东巴西重售单位的价格与邻近区域的组屋相比），组屋提升计划无疑仍然可以成为人民行动党一个有用的心理工具，可以威胁和胁迫选民投自己一票。 几乎将毕生积蓄都购置政府组屋的新加坡人，他们最终看到作为财产的组屋升值被剥夺，并且大幅度下降，政府解释这奇怪的现象为新加坡人虽然普遍希望看到国会有更多反对的声音，但他们更喜欢听到那些反对之声来自其他地方，而不是他们所在的选区。 新加坡人一旦高价买了单位就将更加受制于人民行动党，因为他们不能承担因反对派取胜，而迁怒人民行动党使自己资产可能遭受贬值的风险，从而减少政府给与社区租屋资助金的补贴 虽然居民无法明确单位的实际价值，除非它们出售和“升级”到更昂贵的单位，从而只有增加他们的债务负担，误解继续深深扎根于他们的潜意识之中---组屋单位的上涨价格会为他们创造财富。 作为没有财富和政府资源的反对党，纯从以经济因素考虑的新加坡人必将讨厌投他们一票。 以往多次的选举分析表明，反对派忠实支持者不论其组屋选区升级与否只占20至25％的选民。 尚未决定的中间选民约占35至40％，虽然他们没有预设的政治立场，甚至不能像人民行动党一样，产业升级是导致他们投票选举人民行动党的最主要因素。毫无疑问，这解释了为什么反对派要夺超过50％的选票，在集选区尤其是艰巨困难。 如果他们（选民）是自政府加以控制的合理的低水平价格买来的，组屋升级不会永远成为一个议题。由于他们不会赚钱，无论如何，（这应当是受资助的公共房屋的情况）也无关紧要，只要区内和附近区域有足够的设施。 让公民对政治冷漠和无能为力 一个重要的因素，但往往被忽视的原因是组屋保持稳定的高价格，是维持公民服从，麻木不仁，对政治不感兴趣。 人民行动党是一个专制的政党，不容忍任何政治异议或反对其统治，也没有受到严格的公共审查得不舒服感觉。 当作家林宝音一如既往的多加询问，她立即被总理吴作栋告诫去“参与政治或闭嘴”。 让国人远离政治的唯一方法，就是迫使他们为改善物质生活去努力赚取金钱，为了养家糊口，别无选择。 政府组屋的价格容许在新加坡人仍然可以负担得起的情况下逐步提高，唯有如此，他们将一生不得不埋头忠诚为到期的抵偿押权贷款忙碌工作。 随着人们为了支付有权租赁自己拥有的溢价政府组屋单位，不得不花费绝大部分时间去赚钱。他们无暇对政治产生兴趣。 由于立场不稳定，大多数新加坡人不可能冒险打破饭碗加入反对行列，因为政府是新加坡最大的雇主，甚至有意与政府打交道的私人公司也对此有所顾忌。 政治在新加是坡昂贵的  Read More →

An extract by Gerald Curtis from Newsweek President Obama was elected on a platform of change and in most areas he hasn't hesitated to deliver. One important exception, however, is East Asia. There the key word is continuity. But continuity should involve progress and adapatation to changing circumstances; it doesn't mean simply carrying on the policies and practices of the past. Obama came into office determined to make a sharp break with George W. Bush's policies in the Middle East and South Asia. In East Asia, the challenges are more subtle - and thus so are the policy adjustments required. Still, the stakes are just as high: Asia today is the economic growth engine of the world and also a place where nuclear proliferation threatens; where a great power (China) is emerging; and where its neighbor, Japan, remains the world's second largest economy. The danger is that, distracted by pressing events in other parts of the globe - Afghanistan, the Middle East, and elsewhere - the Obama administration might be lulled into treating East Asia as a kind of benign neglect. That's dangerous, because it would leave the administration in a position of constantly having to catch up with developments in this dynamic and rapidly changing region, rather thanhelping shape those developments. The most pressing need is for a comprehensive strategy on North Korea. When I visited Pyongyang in February 2009 to take part in a Track II dialogue with senior North Korean officials, our group was told in no uncertain terms that the regime's price for giving up its nukes included the removal of U.S. nuclear umbrella over South Korea. The North Koreans know they are not going to get that, but they are trying to make the most of a weak hand, hoping that Obama will conclude that he has to deal with a North Korea that has nuclear weapons even as he deems its possession of them unacceptable. Theonly way to find out whether the North Koreans can be persuadedto give up their nuclear quest is to talk with them about the terms of a comprehensive deal. What the Obama administration must recognize is that in our interconnected and interdependent world, the process of bilateral negotiations resembles a game of billiards as much as it does chess. When one ball hits another, it sets the ball into motion, striking and moving still others. The result when this is applied to international politics is a multiparty game that quickly expands past the original two players. The U.S. must be willing to engage with Asia flexibly and with imagination. What is most important is not to put East Asia on the policy back burner or to put policy on an automatic pilot. Change there is the order of the day. The president who came into office promising that now has to take charge in responding to it. Source: Newsweek CURTIS is the Burgess professor of political science at Columbia University.  Read More →

By Jessie Ho from Wall Street Journal The former president of Taiwan was sentenced to life in prison on charges of corruption, with supporters seeing a conspiracy to silence a critic of close ties with China and others calling it a sad ending for one of Asia's pioneering democrats. Chen Shui-bian, who led Taiwan from 2000 to 2008, rose from poverty to become a lawyer who defended political prisoners and ultimately ended the Nationalist Party's 50-year grip on power. But as an advocate of independence from China, which claims Taiwan as a province, Mr. Chen earned China's wrath. The case riveted Taiwan for months, with many people convinced that Mr. Chen was guilty of some crimes. His wife had already been found guilty of corruption and the media have been awash with details of how Mr. Chen allegedly embezzled money earmarked for secret diplomatic missions. "The court has decided on a life sentence in view of Mr. Chen's public background and position, and the damage to the country," a Taipei District Court spokesman said Friday. The court also fined Mr. Chen 200 million New Taiwanese dollars (US$6.1 million) and stripped him of his civil rights, meaning he can't vote or run for office. In Taiwan, a life sentence is automatically appealed. Mr. Chen's spokesman said the verdict was "illegal" and "unacceptable," while a spokesman for Mr. Chen's former party, the Democratic Progressive Party, said due process had been violated. Mr. Chen was arrested in November and a panel of judges agreed to release him, but the judges were then replaced and a new panel reversed the ruling, meaning he had to return to jail. "The trial is a victory for democracy, because it shows that everyone is accountable to the law," said Lin Feng-cheng, head of the nongovernmental Judicial Reform Foundation. "But there were irregularities in the trial, and we have to address this." On Friday, a group of Mr. Chen's supporters stood outside the courtroom calling for him to be set free and saying the sentence was unfairly harsh. From the start, Mr. Chen claimed the trial was a witch hunt organized by his successor, President Ma Ying-jeou, who was elected on a platform of bettering ties with China. - WSJ Chen Shui-bian, who led Taiwan from 2000 to 2008, rose from poverty to become a lawyer who defended political prisoners and ultimately ended the Nationalist Party's 50-year grip on power. But as an advocate of independence from China, which claims Taiwan as a province, Mr. Chen earned China's wrath. The case riveted Taiwan for months, with many people convinced that Mr. Chen was guilty of some crimes. His wife had already been found guilty of corruption and the media have been awash with details of how Mr. Chen allegedly embezzled money earmarked for secret diplomatic missions. "The court has decided on a life sentence in view of Mr. Chen's public background and position, and the damage to the country," a Taipei District Court spokesman said Friday. The court also fined Mr. Chen 200 million New Taiwanese dollars (US$6.1 million) and stripped him of his civil rights, meaning he can't vote or run for office. In Taiwan, a life sentence is automatically appealed. Mr. Chen's spokesman said the verdict was "illegal" and "unacceptable," while a spokesman for Mr. Chen's former party, the Democratic Progressive Party, said due process had been violated. Mr. Chen was arrested in November and a panel of judges agreed to release him, but the judges were then replaced and a new panel reversed the ruling, meaning he had to return to jail.  Read More →