TR EMERITUS – The Voice Of The Lunatic Fringe – 淡马锡评论 – formerly Temasek Review

我们是否该重新思考国防开支的优先顺序？

新加坡政府近日宣布将采购两艘额外的“无畏级”潜艇，引发了一个重要问题：我们的国防力量，到底需要多强？毫无疑问，一个强大且可信的军队对于保障国家主权与威慑潜在威胁是不可或缺的。新加坡地处战略要冲，国土面积有限，因此需要一支现代化的武装部队。然而，当我们对比邻国——马来西亚拥有两艘潜艇、印尼正逐步扩展至十二艘——新加坡在水下战力上已处于领先地位。这不禁让人质疑，我们是否正引领着一场无声的区域军备竞赛？问题在于：当威慑的需求被满足后，继续扩军是否已经超出必要？一艘“无畏级”潜艇的估价超过十亿新元，还不包括长期的运营与维护成本。这两艘新潜艇的资金，若能转用于迫切的民生需求，例如医疗保健、老龄化支援、教育及弱势群体扶助，或许对社会的整体韧性更具意义。政府一再强调国防开支是经过审慎规划的，但当生活成本日益上升，政府却仍需将消费税（Gst）提高至9%甚至更多，这种矛盾不禁令人困惑。如果某些战略性国防项目能够延后或循序推进，节省下来的资源是否可以用于社会发展呢？ “全面防卫”不仅仅是硬件实力，更是要赢得人民的心与信任。让人民感到安心、有保障、受到重视，这种安全感无法靠潜艇来衡量，而是通过每一位国人的生活实感体现出来。这并非是在呼吁削弱我们的国防，而是呼吁我们重新思考国家的优先事项。当我们继续推进军事现代化的同时，也不要忽视同样重要的任务——巩固社会契约、增强国民凝聚力。 Cwc-Ai

2025大选—明确授权，变化中的政治格局

2025年大选结果无可争议，政府再次赢得了强有力的授权，稳固了其在新加坡政治格局中的主导地位。尽管选举结果并不令人意外，但胜利的过程却并非没有争议和复杂性。值得注意的是，选区划分的变化在本次选战中发挥了重要作用。陈清木医生与徐顺全医生等资深反对派人物，因选区重划而受到显著影响——传统支持基础被分割或并入他区，无疑左右了某些关键选区的最终结果。虽然选区调整在新加坡选举历史上并不罕见，但其公平性与透明度仍持续引发讨论。工人党虽稳守东北区的传统堡垒，但未能在本届大选中攻下新的选区。不过，该党仍获得两个非选区议员（Ncmp）席位，虽属安慰性质，却在象征意义上维持了国会内多元声音的存在。更值得关注的是，本届大选所处的人口背景正经历剧烈变化。新加坡人口从2000年的约300万增长至2025年的超过500万。考虑到多年来出生率持续偏低，这一增长几乎可以肯定主要归因于移民流入，尤其可能在华人群体中增长显著。这一趋势对国家的社会结构和政治生态产生了深远影响。展望2030年大选，各政党不仅要面对一如既往的选区调整与突发的全球事件，更需正视一个不断演变的社会结构。随着越来越多新移民成为国民，选民构成日益多元，政党在政策制定与信息传递上必须更具包容性与前瞻性。他们必须同时争取老一代公民与新加坡新公民的认同，回应共同关切，并跨越代际与文化差异的鸿沟。在新加坡持续向前迈进的过程中，其政治也必须与时俱进——反映日益多元的人口现实，同时坚守国家的核心价值观：团结、韧性与务实。 Cwc-Ai

Please contact AWWA if you know the whereabouts of Madam Zheng, the 76 year old street scavenger

From our Correspondent On September 1, we published a AFP report and video clip depicting the life of Madam Zheng Jie Wo, a 76 year old street scavenger who had been homeless for the past seven years. Madam Zheng depleted her savings to foot the medical bills of her late husband and is now reducing to scavenge for used cardboards, cans and papers in the streets to earn a living. Due to the economic downturn, her income is now reduced to a few dollars a day. She also has to sleep besides her "collectibles" in the streets to prevent thiefs from making away with them. We have been approached by a social worker from Asian Women Welfare Association (AWWA) Elderly Services about the whereabouts of Madam Zheng as they can arrange for her to stay in a sheltered home. Unfortunately we do not know where to find her. If you have come across this elderly lady above, please contact AWWA at the following: AWWA Eldery Services Tel: 6456 2557 Email: [email protected] Read More →

Charging for newspapers online: Now pay up

An extract from The Economist If newspaper bosses keep their promises, the next few months will see a decisive retreat from free news online. This summer senior figures at big media firms such as News Corporation, Axel Springer Verlag and MediaNews Group have all threatened to start charging. Companies representing more than 700 newspapers have expressed interest in the online payment platforms being developed by Journalism Online, An American start-up. It will not be easy. For ten years readers have been enjoying free news online, and the BBC, public-radio stations and commercial television-news outfits such as CNN will continue to supply it. A newspaper that tries to charge will jeopardize online advertising, which often accounts for 1o - 15% of revenues. But if the obstacles are many so are the potential solutions. The simplest approach, favored by a small but growing number of American regional newspapers, is to erect a pay wall around virtually all stories. Print subscribers are often - but not always - allowed to read articles free of charge. Everybody else must pay, often quite a lot. The newspapers that have built successful pay walls tend to hold virtual monopolies over news in their region. Some publications have tried charging for a digital simulacrum of their print editions, with a more familiar design and layout than their websites, which can often be downloaded as a single package. Another option is to charge for just some content. In Britain, where fierce competition between national dailies probably rules out all-encompassing pay walls, newspapers nonetheless charge for crossword tips and participation in fantasy sport leagues. The greatest exponent of the niche approach, with more than 1m online subscribers, is the Wall Street Journal. Roughly half its articles - generally financial news and insiderish business reports - sit behind a pay wall, although they are free if accessed via Google News. This approach is much harder to emulate than it may appear. Between 2005 and 2007 the New York Times charged a subscription fee to read the paper's most popular columnists online. It ended the experiment because it seemed to be cutting traffic to the site and harming advertising revenue. A final approach is to harry online aggregators such as Google News, which indexes stories, for a share of their advertising revenues. That would at least bring some emotional satisfaction. Source: The Economist EDITORS' NOTE: The Temasek Review is a paid subscriber of The Economist Read More →

政府奖学金计划的一个故事

《译自一篇致陈钦亮的读者留言》在一个纯属虚构和名为『万Hub之母』的国家，它的政府奖学金计划是如下运作的。政府奖学金计划 (government scholarship) 最明显的目的是选拔聪慧的青年人。但该计划的其他目的并不是那么明显的。这些聪慧的青年人对现有的政治体系造成清晰和实在的威协。因此必须有系统地对他们终身『处置 (managed)』和『压制 (neutralized)』。用奖学金去鼓励并且诱导这些聪慧的青年人集中精神从事学业、特别是科学和工程学。因为这些学科是以事实为根基﹐它们倾向于孕育更加顺从政府的学生，并且不需要训练他们作批判式的思考(critical thinking)。政府同时主动地『整顿(fix)』那些需要作批判式思考的学科例如﹕政治学、历史和哲学。通过分派大批的弱等学生去修读这些艺术学科，因而打击这些学科的声誉使不受学生欢迎。这些领取奖学金的年青学者在毕业后要接受政府的束缚﹐在当前的政府体系之内服务大约八年。不管这些学者的能力和天分，政府向他们支付高于市场价格的薪金和迅速提拔他们升任高职。并且鼓励他们结婚和生养许多孩子。当这些学者完成服务政府的八年束缚期之后﹐他们年介三十出头。此时他们正在担当超乎他们能力的职位并且收取无敌的薪金。一方面他们忙于应付妻儿。另一方面侧由于住房和汽车贷款而严重地债台高筑。同时他们也维持着一种昂贵的生活方式，例如经常出国远游和身为多间乡村俱乐部的会员。如此种种，这些学者实在太忙碌以致无暇思考国事的是与非。当他们年介四十来岁之时，大约50%至80%的学者将面临事业停滞。就在这时，他们开始醒觉和从新思考。但是为时己晚了。他们受到了多数平民百姓的藐视和怀疑，这些以前的好高骛远之士(high-fliers)目前己经无处可归。他们尚要偿还巨大的住房和汽车贷款和维持着一种昂贵的生活方式。他们的孩子也在此时想要到美国的顶端大学留学，这将花费一匹为数不菲的金钱。这些学者无处可逃。他们并不拥有在『真实世界』内可以谋生的真正技能。因为在服务政府初期，他们太迅速被提升而错过了学习在政府基层如何实际工作去取得成果。再者，在事业初期由于经常轮换政府岗位，他们现在年介四十来岁才发现没有基层知识或者专门技能。因此这些开始醒觉的学者没有选择，只好闭嘴和顺从政府的政策。他们自已也变成了他们在二、三十岁时曾经藐视的那些无能的政府雇员一样。当他们年介五十来岁之时，这些前学者将轻轻地从政府体系中被逐步淘汰，而被调派至对政府无害的『非政府组织(NGOs)』的高层领异位置，使他们保持忙碌和令政府不招麻烦。但是甚而这些NGOs也是特别的机构。他们实际上是商业界组织的NGOs和政府本身组织的NGOs。 [以上的故事纯属虚构，在现实世界从未有这种政府奖学金计划如此运作。] Read More →