TR EMERITUS

8 days is 8 days. No more. No less. It profits a man none to read too much into this. That's like trying to decipher the mysteries of the known universe by reading the back of a chewing wrapper – you will go nowhere.   LKY visit is ONLY to touch base with what he considers to the oppositional grassroots and perhaps to get a rough feel as to whether Najib is really a heavy weight. Or just a wooden house built on stilts – the $64 million question is can Najib be relied on?   I understand. I appreciate this as power is not so different from pharmacopoeia – what can claim to work is not nearly enough; it must first have potency – otherwise; you might as well rely on color Reiki crystals to cure yourself of swine flu as you melt happily away – in short faith is not sufficient – so let us not have any illusions – LKY is there to find out the strengths and weaknesses of the new Najib administration – if he skips this step; then there is a real danger delays will be a recurrent byword – things will simply not be able to come around – and what is likely to happen is words will take to the wind; where they may even be unmoved by real and present urgencies.   In the words of Malcolm Muggeride, “what we will end up with is……endlessly minuting and circulating…which like time itself, has neither beginning nor end, but just were.”   As there is absolutely no mileage in setting long term goals or even talking beyond the superficial - if all Najib really is, is someone who is holding sand in his hands; it is only a matter of time before power will slip through rendering him worthless at best and a danger to us a worst.   As you can see the gaming world is not so different from the real world politics - elections may change the governing faces; policies may even change the wheel of life turns. But one thing must be assured at every cost - no one wants to deal with a fake!   Against the backdrop of this discussion; we must never underestimate Malaysia - if I were to look over the whole region to find out the country most richly endowed with all the latent wealth, power and potential that providence has bestowed, it is just up North  – no one denies latrines there smell; cement may even be dodgy; and if one were to look only superficially; all that one may make out is the creaking joints of a country is crippled by a myriad of arthritic woes – but deep within its marrow; there is latent strength and a myriad of potential that I cannot even begin to elaborate for brevity sake. Yes I understand as even power failures these days are so common even in KL, it serves to remind us that dining by candlelight is romantic; my point is these are minor kinks should never be allowed to be cloud the real picture of what Malaysia can be.   Malaysia is a sleeping giant; do not even be fooled by the moss that clings to buildings which may have seen better days and draw simple conclusions that nothing great can ever emerge from our neighbor – there is a reservoir of power there that remains untapped; like oil; so far the Malaysian political scene remains fixed in the realm of rhetoric – their pronouncements from their cabinet are like a rain dance during drought.   But what if they get their act together? Can they? Is it even possible? What if they do?   So let us all see this with a sense of scale and perspective. 8 days is only 8 days. But even something small like this can transformed into an opportunity for both SG and Mly – providing the cards are played well - in many respects, this is not so different from how politics is conducted with regard to the internet. It can be perdition or salvation - opportunity or bane and so on and so forth.   It really depends how you wish to see it.   Despite the hold out of the great hope: if you have imbibed the ability to think as to why LKY is doing what he is doing – one needs to be realistic in our expectations. As I said 8 days is only 8 days. No more or less. Hence it would be best if some of you here who are trying to read more into this event as regard it as no more than a “touch base” - neither does it profit anyone to adopt an attitude that so little can emerge from so little – it never once ever did.     Understand this! Malaysia is has already entered a social political awakening where it is not uncommon for even ordinary folk to harbor ideologies that may be unpopular and critical of nostrums for no other higher purpose except that it is happens to be fashionable.     In a sense the proverbial genie is out the lamp - and what will likely feature increasingly in the Malaysian political scene is something that is yet to happen to in Singapore for many years to come - where the soundness of an ideology may not even be inversely proportion to the popular support it commands - neither will logic by itself win the day - democratic purist may consider what I have just said sacrilege; as what it does is assume there is no such thing as the 'good' produced by the majority view - the spell that makes democracy work is it ONLY appears to be good, but within its seemingly democractic machine; there are plenty of stuff that can go awry to cast the Malaysian political scene into a maelstrom - where eventually the good may even be edged out by the bad.   As some of you already know based in the gaming world; I am not an ardent fan of off the shelve democracy – neither do I subscribe willingly to the idea that “rights” alone may confer upon one a ring of fire to protect, preserve and nourish – if that were really the case; then the  – neither do I subscribe willingly to the idea that “rights” alone may confer upon one a ring of fire to protect, preserve and nourish – if that were really possible then the caste system that has riven India for mellinia scissoring its social tapestry would not have persisted for so long; Indian politicians would not have to trade color televisions for votes and the largest democracy in the world would not bear the ignominious reputation of being the greatest expert in the art of perpetuating poverty.   Let us all be realistic – democracy alone is not nearly enough - if that were really true; then US policymakers would not have to struggle to stem the tides of balkanization in the Caucacus or try to stymie Iraq from being transformed into an Iranian style theoracy – as Sainte Beuve said, “like a pole star; it is only guides a man in the evening and rises when is going to rest.”   Apparently, for some folk this star means different things to different people whether we like it or not one thing remains certain; whatever happens in the Malaysian political landscape will continue to exert a gravity that will affect Singapore technological, economic, social and political landscape as well - our economic, cultural and to a certain programming are inextricably fused.   Malaysia short of a better word is now transitioning; very much in the way a man reaches an age when he now has to wake up 3 times a night just to empty his bladder – as democracy in the form of a word, lexicon or even crie de Coeur grows louder and louder in its various forms the hegemony that has once controlled Malaysia will increasingly show signs of stress and strain; as it tries to even out these rumbles – it may go on like this for years; but it may equally be possible that the entire structure may collapse sooner than we think; or worst still morph into a something that is reminiscent of how the Soviet Union once balkanized to its greater detriment and end up as something that will make geo-political history - I dont know, but what I do know is things are in a constant state of flux and this will not only influence Malaysian politicians but also our political strategist; they have to shift gears; change strategies and perhaps even throw out the old and rewrite the rule book, if they are serious in this whole business of capitalizing on opportunities - here adaptability will be key; as not only is it the price for survival; but this may be what it takes to reclaim the lost years of Mahatirism - history informs us; it is never the strongest that thrives. History suggest it is never the strong that survives; both the T-Rex and Mastodo - two of the strongest that ever lived perished, while the insignificant cockroach survived - this should provoke us all to ask why? Because it those mighty beast could not adapt themselves to the changes brought about by the chastening passage of time - its as simple as that.   In short my friends; just as history is replete with ironies – let us not assume that today will be like tomorrow or the past can even be relied upon as a basis to draw a straight line to fortell the future and what happens in Malaysia will have absolutely no consequence over here – I am reminded such departmental think is akin to “isms” - they are built with a mechanism of self destruction; there is no such thing as progress in perpetuity – things invariably wax and wane - the need to be nourished, fertilized and the old needs to thrown out and new brought in – and history testifies to this with its many ruins of ancient Greece, Rome and China.   All the old man is trying to say is to the Malaysians is not so different from the opening words of Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina – “all happy families resemble one another, but each unhappy family is unhappy in its own special way.” Here let us not forget new links need to be formed; they need to be nourished and in certain cases even retrofitted with new ideas. Our government has reached a new realization; the age of absolute command and control in Malaysia is fast giving way like camphor; even they need to hedge their bets and a good place to start is to touch base with these Malaysians – as do not be surprise one day; if they too can one day assume the levers of power.   In my view the old man is wise; this is what we too would have done given the same facts and circumstances; chit chat; iron out the odds; set the rules of the game and perhaps even try our very best to explain just how wide and unavoidable our differences may work against us all if we do not strive see the wisdom of coming together and work in harmony – but always remember 8 days is 8 days – no more or less.   None the less the journey of a 1,000 miles begins with the first step and this we have taken timely and wisely - I remain cautiously hopeful.    Darkness 2009   The Brotherhood Press 2009  Read More →

Original Blog Written by Lucky Tan HERE 我己经写了许多关于淡马锡(Temasek)有什么错失之处，直至我对此己写得非常厌倦：似乎它近来的境况并没有什么好转。 从Shin Corp到美国银行，我以为已看到了它坏中之最坏。但当谈及意想不到之事时，只有淡马锡才可以胜过淡马锡它自己。 我们必须从路透社(Reuters)[链接]和华尔街日报(Wall Street Journal)才可以得悉淡马锡己出售了它在Barclays银行的全部股权而且损失了超过八亿(800M)英镑。淡马锡在早前曾投资了Barclays银行大约十亿(1B)英镑。淡马锡解释了它决定套现它在美国银行的损失，这是因为他们的投资主题(investment thesis)已从原本Merrill的特有企业模式改变成为美国银行的多样化模式因而联系到更加广泛的美国经济体 [链接]。那么他们怎样解释Barclays的损失呢？他们买入了一间银行而它仍然保持为一间银行因此投资主题并没有改变。淡马锡现在必须制造一个新的借口来解释它为什么卖出了Barclays的股权而引致巨大的损失。有一件事他们是不会做的，这就是承认他们作了一个错误的判断去追求这些冒险性的投资导致恶劣的结果。一个机构能改进的第一步就是承认重大差错和从中学习，如果他们面对Global Crossing 或Shin Corp等冒险性的投资引致丢失金钱时能够如此认错和学习的话，他们也许已能避免了那些随后而来的巨大的损失。 另一件惊人的事在损失了五百亿元($50B)纳税人的金钱之后发生，我们的财务部长出面解释这些损失并无过错，因为淡马锡已经赚了超过一千亿元($100+B) ，这是根据2003年谷底至2007峰顶之间来计算它的盈利。Tharman部长解释淡马锡的盈利按年计算是15%相对于MSCI全球性指数的6%盈利。 Tharman部长选择了2003年而不是1999作为计算的起点，因为那时市场处于谷底，并且由此起点计算的绝对回报(absolute returns)大于其他起点计算的回报。我不清楚为什么他选择把淡马锡与MSCI全球性指数相比，然而淡马锡的投资组合(portfolio)的大部分是处于新加坡，并且在同一个期间海峡时报指数(STI)己经上升了16%。我也不清楚淡马锡怎么计算它从销售未上市的战略性财产所赢得的盈利，这些战略性财产包括卖给了中国，马来西亚和日本的3间发电厂总值一百二十亿元($12B) 。 (附注：他们解释销售发电厂的目的是制造竞争，但您真正地想知道竞争怎么可能发生，每个电厂现在已拥有全国总发电容量的一部分…什么东西刺激它们去竞争呢？他们无法单凭发电而获取更大的市场拥有率(market share)) 当我目睹一个原本应该服务新加坡公民的选民代表通过使用随意的(arbitrary)表现尺度(measure of performance)去辩护淡马锡时，我的确感到十分惊奇。正确的方式去衡量淡马锡的表现将是看它的主动式管理财产的回报并且分开它的被动式股票的回报。淡马锡雇用的350个员工的真正增值能力 (value add)在于它主动地完成的生意交易和它的经理做出的决定。到目前为止许多这些大宗生意交易的结果似乎并不有效… 它的许多被动式股票投资于新加坡蓝筹股(blue chips)的回报并不须要它的管理和决策… 它只是通过持有赚钱的国联公司(GLCs)的股份便可收取回报。 尝试编造故事去解释淡马锡的损失并不能解决民众的需求。每一个解释只是引来了更多未有答案的问题。现在是当选的官员们要仔细思量(take stock)的时候，他们要尽终职守因而保证我们现今看到的巨大损失在将来不会再次出现。他们要如上述一样努力工作，否则我们必须在下次竞选中选举一些愿意做正当事的候选人。  Read More →

From The Newsroom Team The Straits Times boasted that it "has bagged awards at a premier Asian publishing competition." Its journalists received honourable mentions - second-place awards - in the Excellence in Reporting Breaking News and the Excellence in Business Reporting categories of the Society of Publishers in Asia (Sopa) Awards for Editorial Excellence. (read article here) For a paper which has swept all local awards, it is ironic that it is now congratulating itself over two miserable second place awards out 0f 87 winners. In fact, no Singapore paper under the control of SPH should be allowed to participate in the award in the first place! A message from SOPA's chairman Terence Tung reads: "Over the past 27 years, SOPA has dedicated itself to preserving freedom of the press in the Asia region and to ensuring that independent, quality journalism is observed, encouraged and acknowledged. Our mission is an uncompromising dedication to responsible journalism with integrity that is the cornerstone of every free society." (source: SOPA) Is Mr Terence Tung even aware that there is no free press in Singapore? The Singapore press is ranked 141st on the Reporters without Borders' World Press Freedom Index, slightly higher than North Korea, China and Burma. What has SOPA done to "preserve freedom of the press" in Singapore? SPH papers operate contrarian to the vaunted values espoused by SOPA - it is nothing more than a mouthpiece of the ruling party tasked with churning out cheap propaganda on a daily basis to brainwash its readers. Does SOPA regard such hogwash as "independent" and "quality" journalism? Why SPH papers are even allowed to participate in the awards is beyond the guess of any rational person. No SPH paper will ever win the following two awards: 1. Excellence in Investigative Reporting: because any journalist who thinks would have left SPH already. 2. Excellence in Human Rights Reporting: human rights is non-existent in Singapore.  Read More →