TR EMERITUS

During Macron's visit to China, China placed an order to buy Airbus planes worth CNY 137 billion. Payment was made in CNY and not USD. When France received the payment, they will keep CNY and use it to buy products from China. They can also invest the CNY in a Chinese bank to earn interest. There is no need for China to pay in USD and for France to keep the USD in America. The American banks lost the chance to earn a fee on this transaction in USD. This transaction is also free from volatility in exchange rate caused by the USD. As Airbus does not have the capacity to build the new planes, as their existing factories are busy, Airbus agreed to open a new manufacturing facility in Tianjin, China. This creates high paying jobs for engineers and factory workers in China. It is a win-win arrangement for France and China. This type of arrangement can also be made for other large purchases from China with overseas suppliers. China can pay in CNY and their exporting country can keep the proceeds in CNY to buy products from China. The de-dollarization movement will accelerate rapidly. America will face a major threat in that its currency will be replaced by other currencies in international trade and as a reserve currency. America cannot continue to print USD to fund its trade and fiscal deficits. The value of the USD and its stock and property markets will fall over time. America will face several lost decades, like Japan had went through.     Tan Kin Lian      Read More →

One of the things about coming from a country that has national service is that you have a sure-fire way of knowing that you’re turning into an old git. That is sign is when you meet up with your best mates and you grumble about how easy the kids have it in national service. The common refrain is “It wasn’t like that back then.” In the artillery it’s especially noticeable. In my time, the old gunners would talk about how they really had to dig and get the round into the chamber (the lightest round is 19kg) unlike the whipper snappers like us who had a “flick rammer” which the job for us. Now, my contemporaries talk about how “gun drill” was actually a physical drill and not the “push button” stuff that today’s gunners get involved in. I bring this topic up because I met with one of my best mates over the Easter weekend and somehow, we ended up talking about how our respective kid just don’t get the hardships that we went through. Then in the midst of this session, I realised that my parents probably did the same thing, talking about how I had it easy when compared to them. A former client of mine, who has become a venture capitalist made the point that when technology has reached a stage where people today don’t need to do things that we did in the past. Old people will tell you that they work out eight multiplied by eight in their heads unlike the kids who need calculators. However, the question is, why do people need to memorise things and do complicated sums in their head when they have everything in super computer at fits into their palms? In a way, we, the aging folks need to understand that today’s issues are not yesterday’s issues. Sure, our kids may not have been through the things we did but that’s not to say that they don’t have their issues which are unique to their generation. Having said that, where I do question the younger generation is on their expectations. Talk to enough young graduates about their expectations and you will get the impression that they’re expecting to be in the vice-president’s desk once they graduate. This is most visible in the religious sphere. You get our youth being drawn to churches who sell what I call “McGod” where joining the church becomes a sure way to get into a glorious place called heaven. My ex-wife’s pastor had a way of seeing miracles in the shape of the car his congregation gave him. To be fair, this isn’t exactly limited to Christians. Talk to enough Buddhist and they’ll be sure to tell you about the master who accumulated so much merit that he could float in the air and do all sorts of magical things. I’m not knocking wanting to find peace and spirituality. What I am knocking is the idea that peace and salvation can be found by joining a club with its membership fees. Spirituality and salvation come from pretty miserable places. Let’s look at the basic fact that we commemorate “Good Friday,” before we have “Easter Sunday.” Thanks to Mel Gibson, we got to see the Bible made live in the Passion of Christ. Crucifixion is not a word but a brutal form of death. The man we know as “Jesus Christ” was turned into nothing more than a lump of flesh before he was even nailed to the cross (the idea of crucifixion being you suffocate to death). He had to go through this (Photo: National Catholic Report). It’s only after he was treated like a piece of meat and then killed that he was able to resurrect and get the glory of the divine: Too many people get caught up with the idea of the “glory” bit. Too few people understand that he could only get the “Divine Glory” by going through the suffering. This isn’t restricted to Jesus Christ. The person that we know as the Buddha wasn’t born as the Buddha. He had to go through that process of discovery before he found enlightenment. Mohammed wasn’t born a prophet. He only started taking dictation from the angels after his 40th birthday. So, the fact is that the great religious teachers of humanity had to go through some form of challenge before they got the glory of the divine. Unfortunately, too many religious organisations teach this basic fact. Nobody grows in a comfort zone. Why should I up my game when I automatically win? However, when you face someone who has a good chance of turning you into mincemeat, things suddenly change. You become forced to up your game. If you study organisations, you’ll realise that those who never face challenge end up killing themselves. It’s as simple as this – if Jesus could through the misery and suffering of the crucifixion before obtaining the glory of the resurrection, why can’t we go through the discomfort of change in order to emerge stronger?   Tang Li *Although I’ve been based mainly in Singapore for nearly two decades, I’ve had the privilege of being able meet people who have crossed borders and cultures. I’ve befriended ministers and ambassadors and worked on projects involving a former head of state. Yet, at the same time, I’ve had the privilege of befriending migrant labourers and former convicts. All of them have a story to tell. All of them add to the fabric of life. I hope to express the stories that inspire us to create life as it should be.      Read More →

Prime Minister-still-in-waiting In this country, you are called the Prime Minister-in-waiting for good reason – you need to wait and wait for your turn. In the case of Heng Swee Keat, his turn never came despite all the waiting. He emerged as the PM-in-waiting after a long and winding process. Then he waited while he got tested until he finally threw in the towel, saying the runway was too short for him. Now it’s Lawrence Wong’s turn to be the PM-in-waiting. He turns 51 this year, so he is 11 years younger than Heng and presumably has more time to wait. Wong was heaped lavish praise for the handling of the COVID-19 crisis. But Heng also garnered plentiful ownself praise ownself and still he got stuck at PM-in-waiting. What’s next for Lawrence Wong? The one who knows best is PM Lee Hsien Loong. Having expressed his wish several times to step down before his 70th birthday, he turned 71 without stepping down. The reason PM Lee previously gave was COVID-19. “A lot will depend on how events unfold and all I can say is I will see this (pandemic) through and I will handover in good shape as soon as possible to the next team,” he said back in 2020. Singapore’s COVID-19 rules have been relaxed and the Multi-Ministry Taskforce has stood down, signifying the country’s emergence from the pandemic. In Parliament, Leader of the House Indranee Rajah was already speaking of a post-pandemic future. What is the post-pandemic plan for PM Lee on leadership succession? Does he now want to see through the elected presidency, due to take place by September this year? He might also want to see through the next general election—due by end 2025. What next after that? Isn’t there always a next? In any case, PM Lee seems to have taken his foot off the pedal for some time now. He has only spoken in Parliament once since the commencement of the 14th Parliament, has not participated in recent Parliamentary debates, and has shied away from personally addressing major issues like the Keppel bribery scandal. When Jacinda Ardern, 42, resigned as PM of New Zealand recently, her successor, Chris Hipkins, 44, was identified quickly and sworn in as the new PM within a week. Just like that – sweet, sharp and decisive. Here, Heng Swee Keat was made to wait until he lost hope. The People’s Action Party (PAP) and East Coast GRC lost ground in the last general election and it was a black mark on him and his leadership. If Lawrence Wong is tasked to fight the next election and the PAP loses yet more ground, will the blame fall on him? Then he could go the way of Heng Swee Keat and PM Lee would have to delay his retirement yet again. Can lightning strike twice?   Augustine Low      Read More →