TR EMERITUS

Part 2: One swing voter's view of the little red dot [Part 1: Govt’s GDP push does nothing for citizens’ well-being] Heartware vs Hardware For a swing voter, what is more important in the scheme of things, heartware or hardware? Widening rich-poor income gap Should he/ she choose a regime which focuses more on the software side of society on the whole or one that mindlessly focuses on GDP growth at all cost, building and building more and more gleaming hardware and buildings in the economy and on the whole neglects building and nurturing the social software of the society? In other words, between the choice of a regime focusing on heartware and hardware, which will make for a more liveable society and sustainable future? Has the economy really grown for the masses in the past few years? One simple way to look at whether the rich-poor income gap is narrowing or widening is the TFR figure in the past few years. Past historical data has shown that in times of hardship or economic downturn or economic upturn but the masses experiencing a shrinking real income growth, TFR tends to move in locked-steps. Another way to figure out whether cost has risen rapidly and far out-stripped nominal income growth is by looking at the gross expenditure of a typical family's spending on goods and services. With the cost structure as it is in the past few years and Singapore even earning the "WORLD CUP TITLE" equivalent in terms of cost of living, Singapore has emerged as the current "WORLD CHAMPION" as the "MOST EXPENSIVE CITY" in the world, according to the report published by The Economist Intelligence Unit a few weeks ago. Yay! Singapore has finally won the "WORLD CUP"! At least as the "MOST EXPENSIVE CITY" in the world. How much has real income likely dropped for the masses in the past few years? Based on simple back of hand estimation, it is not an exaggeration to conclude that real income might have dropped as much as 10% between 2010 to 2013. Absolute gross spending might have increased for the masses due to higher prices but the bang per dollar likely has dropped from one dollar to ninety cents in terms of real purchasing power between 2010 to 2013. If this is not convincing, lets look at another macroeconomic indicator. Has the NODEX - Non-Oil Domestic Exports risen in the past few quarters or actually declined? Again without looking at specific figures, given the cost structures over the past few years, in terms of competitiveness of Singapore's non-oil domestic exports, it is highly likely that NODEX has declined over the past several quarters. Thus, it is no genius to foresee that going forward, Singapore's NODEX is likely to perform poorly in the coming months and years as the cost structure in an economy especially land cost is rather rigid and sticky downwards. Is there any surprise the number of millionaires in Singapore has risen sharply in recently years? Absolutely not. Given the cost structure, property owners would have seen a huge quantum leap in their asset values. Is this a good sign? Again absolutely not. This is likely a drug-like, steroid-type of temporary boost in the first few years. The serious symptoms and economic ills likely would be manifested and felt in the economy, by both the masses and the exporters in the coming years especially 2015 to 2020. The above are hardly any optimistic prognosis. But from the point of view of a swing voter and in the interest of the masses, what to call a spade other than a spade? In the meantime, do pay more attentive focus going forward when you go out and make purchases. Likely the bang for every dollar is far lesser than what is officially claimed. Another way to analyse it is that if a family can afford 30 kg of rice in 2010, in 2014 likely they can only afford about 26 kg of rice with their current nominal income. This is just an example. It may not be rice per se but generally across the board in terms of the purchasing power and real income level of the masses in their affordability of a basket of goods and services for day to day needs such as food, shelter, health care, transport, utilities, basic necessities etc. P S S * The author blogs at pro-sustainable-sg.blogspot.  Read More →

Despite the fact that Roy has announced that the intended target of $70,000 for his initial legal defence fund has been met, funds are still "trickling in" and it is now in excess by $16,000. The target of S$70,000 was hit within 4 days and on day 6 of his donation appeal, the legal defence fund now stands at $86,000 and donations are still "trickling in", said Roy in his latest post. We have nearly S$16,000 in excess at this point. The funds will be set aside for any legal costs orders (if) made against me during the court proceedings by the court for me to pay the opposing sides legal cost if I lose any (interlocutory) applications in court. We have currently stopped putting out an active appeal for funds but if the funds continue coming in, I will be open and transparent with them and publish them, so as to be accountable. The Prime Minister (PM) of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, is suing Roy Ngerng, the author of blog The Heart Truths, for defamation over comments he made about the Central Provident Fund (CPF). In response to legal proceedings from the PM, Roy has apologised, deleted a number of the articles he has written about the CPF issue, and taken down a video. But that was not enough, said the Prime Minister via his lawyer. He called Roy's offer of $5,000 in damages "derisory" and has decided to sue the blogger for damages in the High Court. TR Emeritus (TRE) understands that the minimum amount a plaintiff can claim in High Court for damages is $250,000. Meanwhile, in neighbouring Malaysia, Prime Minister Najib Razak is suing independent news website Malaysiakini for defamation. In an interview with Australian TV network ABC, the website’s editor Steven Gan said that the Malaysian government was “taking a leaf out of Singapore’s book” by using strong arm legal tactics to silence critical voices. On a side note, TRE has received approximately US$2500 in donations, out of the US$12,000 that it needs to complete the upgrading/migrating of its servers to a DDoS-protected network, for a year. TRE had hoped to raise at least 50% of the cost but unfortunately it is still way off target. * P/S: TRE is not receiving funds on behalf of Roy. Those wanting to donate to Roy should contact him directly on his website. All funds donated to TRE will be for the maintenance and upgrading of our website.  Read More →

What Now, Roy - A Contrarian Approach I’m happy for the $70k contributions achieved to pay for the legal fees, not the libel damages. But damages there will be since Roy has already admitted and apologised. What’s Unchanged From those who appear to be in the know of legal matters, at least 2 relevant points to bear in mind; One, there won’t be any discussions on the CPF issues. The defendant has already admitted guilt by way of his apology. Of course, Roy can still withdraw the apology and go the whole nine yards. But, what’s the point? Two, there is the possibility of the PM applying for a Mareva Injunction the way LKY did agst Tan Liang Hong. If so, Ravi his counsel may not get paid. Good chance Roy may still be made a bankrupt. Or his supporters poorer from another donation appeal – supporters who Roy wants to help get a better CPF deal. If so, what’s the point? I think Roy has proven his point. Or Singaporeans have proven OUR point. There isn’t just a lunatic fringe not entirely happy with the CPF issue (related and other issues) – enough to put our money where our mouths are (me included). The speed and amount with which the $70k target is realised can only be seen as astounding in SGP’s context, a polity apparently apathetic or compliant, beaten or brainwashed into a submissive pulp. But, not anymore; we have stood up. Now, PAP – Listen Up. Why not for the good of the country and not the sake of either ego in this silly saga, settle out of court? If S$5,000 is not enough, Roy hasn’t asked, ‘So, how much do you want from me?’ Why he has not asked for that counter-offer, that amount that is enough to PM Lee? Don’t you get it – PM Lee can’t be asking for too much not to appear to be ‘greedy’? So, settle. And let’s get back to the REAL ISSUE which is the CPF and its many policies tt have cut so many of us asunder. EGOs are not the issue. I had observed that PM Lee, through his Davinder weaponry, held the initiative, was dictating the direction and pace of the situation. Anyone with any basic knowledge of strategy will know that you are on the losing side if the other side calls the shots. That PM Lee has more and better resources is not the issue and cannot be the excuse for not trying to figure out how to turn the disadvantage around. Where in his strengths is he most vulnerable? Be that as it may, Roy (or the collective ‘we’ standing on the side of Roy) should and indeed must play the cards that are now in his hands. Roy, do not get caught up with the adrenaline rush of the moment, please DO NOT forget what you are fighting for. What you claim to be your aim. Revisit that aim now to stay true to yourself – and keep the faith of those who support you in yr time of need. Ask yourself honestly, are you NOW fighting to humiliate the PM? Or do you stay true to want to achieve a better transparency and return in what your fellow citizens rightly deserve from their CPF savings from this govt? If it is the former, then what of your aim? Is there a better way other than going the whole 9 yards to the courts? How? How’s that going to help yr cause, yr aim? As noted, you have already apologised. The courts will be to determine the damages. No discussions on what you have alleged about the CPF. If you then decide to retract that apology, then you would lose at least one supporter – me. It means your aim in yr blogging is no longer what you claim. I am inclined to believe it’s no longer about the CPF but something else. What’s changed - a position of strength… If nothing else, the S$70k raised in 96 hours is a clear statement of the anger of the electorate on the CPF issue. Now, Roy has the ballast of a critical mass of supporters behind you. Now, use that to regain the initiative. Now, you can go to Davinder and say, look, why not settle? Roy, I say again, the PM cannot ask for too much without looking like shit. That said, can you just imagine all the invaluable gains accruing from taking that initiative? Yes! You would have gotten him pretty damaged either way. To accept, you come up tops as the matured party. To say, no way, Jose, he’d sealed for himself the image of a small-minded, vindictive person. So, he’s caught between his rock & his own hard place for taking action without thinking thro’ the end game, his exit strategy. I leave those who disagree with my view to imagine the many, many other gains to be had taking this route. To cede a battle is not defeat in a war. Roy, if nothing else, for yr own integrity, settle and let him then show us the CPF money. That’s aligned to yr stated aim. He can’t get away from that now without losing more votes, credibility. Let me end with not a quote from Sun Tze but Miyamoto Musashi 1584-1645, legendary Japanese swordsman: Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.” There is little doubt that those you surround yourself with for support and counsel will give you a perspective different from mine. Well, you can’t now claim that you were not given some 2cents worth approach, with the best of intention. 2cents * The author blogs at 2econdsight.  Read More →