TR EMERITUS

From The Newsroom Team It was reported in the Straits Times that 344 home owners had received a payout from the Housing Board’s new Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS). (read article here) One of them, 68 year old retired taxi driver Chia Boon Chuan has received a $5,000 upfront payment and will be paid more than $400 a month for the rest of his life, in exchange for the tail-end of the 99-year lease of his flat. It was not known exactly how much Mr Chia will receive monthly, but it is unlikely to be more than $500. Based on the present standard of living today, $400 is just sufficient to cover one's living expenses, assuming that one is healthy and not crippled by hefty healthcare costs. If Mr Chia were to live for another 15 years, the monthly sum of $400 may not be enough for him in the future if one takes inflation into account. Given that he has no children to support him and with meagre savings to begin with, he faces an uncertain, if not gloomy future. Even if one has children, there is little guarantee that they are able to support their parents financially for the rest of their lives unless they earn a decent salary to begin with. The lower income group, which has seen their salaries stagnate for the last decade or so due to increased competition from cheaper foreign labor, will be hardest hit. The middle class is being squeezed too with many young families having to juggle their limited finances between supporting their children and aged parents. In the meantime, unskilled and semi-skilled foreigners continue to flood the labor market, depressing the wages of the average Singapore worker. With practically no social support from the state to speak of, Singaporeans have to depend on their CPF and personal savings for their retirement. Since the CPF of most Singaporeans are locked up in mortage loans for their properties, there is hardly enough to be utilized as a retirement fund. 85% of Singaporeans live in public housing built by the government. At today's market rates, almost all Singaporeans will have to rely on a loan to purchase one. The price of new HDB flats have more than doubled in the last 10 years while that of resale flats have skyrocketed with those in prime areas comparable to the prices of private apartments. As a substantial amount of the Singaporean worker's salary is invested in the HDB flat which has the potential to earn the owner a reasonable profit upon resale, many flat owners are obsessed with the value of their flats. The building of amentities such as MRT stations, shopping malls, sports facilities and upgrading of estates will invariably increase the value of the property. Since it is the ruling party (via the government) which controls the purse-strings of HDB and URA, it has cleverly made used of estate upgrading as a trump card without fail at every general election. With the ruling elite kept perpetually in power, Singaporeans have no say at all in how their CPF is being managed or the prices of public housing. They have little choice except to slog hard throughout their lives to save up for their twilight years.  Read More →

Original Blog Written by Lucky Tan HERE 有时编造故事令人非常厌倦，您可因它而真正地恶心的。因此，当我读了2009年6月19日一篇文章[链接]关于淡马锡(Temasek)怎样胜过了Warren Buffett，我对此有些麻木。但是，该文报导Buffett从1999年到2009年期间只是回报了(returned) 0.7%使我完全大惑不解。我是个密切注意Buffett的观察家，怎么样也计算不出海峡时报所报导的0.7%回报率。Berkshire的帐面价值(book value)从2002年至2008年增长了9.3%[链接]…而且它的固有(intrinsic)价值在过去15年按年计算(annualised)增长了大约15% 。 然后，在今天与一些投资的朋友谈论此事时，他们其中一人建议了海峡时报可能使用Berkshire从1999年到2009年的股票价格(stock price)来比较淡马锡的投资收益(investment returns)。这将是高度使人误解的。不同于淡马锡，Warren Buffett的Berkshire是一间上市的公司，它的股票价格可以基于投机、市场内的动物情绪和激动而有所起伏(fluctuate)。如果您还记得在1999年的股市由于dot.com这类公司而引致泡影(bubble)，象微软(Microsoft)、Cisco、和Berkshire等公司的股票价格曾经直冲云霄。微软和Cisco今天的股价仍然低过1999年的价格，即使他们的收入和盈利己经增长了。把Berkshire的股票表现与淡马锡的投资收益比较是完全站不住脚的，这是由于淡马锡不是上市的股票。Buffett他本人曾警告投机者在1999年把Berkshire的股票价格炒得太高，如果他们那时买入股票将会在以后获得次级水准的回报。在2009年3月，由于银行业危机的恐慌，投机者压低了Berkshire的股价低至它帐面价值之下12%。Berkshire股票价格不是量度Buffett表现的一项好尺度(measure)，当您使用1999年股市的欣快上升与2009年的恐慌下落来比较时，更不应该选定这尺度作为Buffett的表现尺度。应该把Buffett的投资收益(帐面价值，固有值等)与淡马锡的投资收益比较：正如苹果应与同类的苹果比较。淡马锡拥有财政部或者新加坡政府转给它的资产，这些资产随后上市或廉价出售的盈利应该排除与Buffett比较之外，因为他们不是淡马锡主动做的投资。否则这些资产将对淡马锡的投资表现造成错误的印象。 我仍然未被我朋友的假说所说服，这假说认为海峡时报使用了Berkshire的股票价格去制造了一篇高度使人误解的文章。海峡时报是政府的喉舌，因而频繁地出版宣传报导。若这假说是真的如此，则将显示它如此缺乏正直.....因此我对Buffett的0.7%回报率的报导仍然大惑不解……有何人可提供一个另类的解释呢？   更新：某人指出了海峡时报的比较有如上述一样的缺点[链接]。把Berkshire的股票表现视同Buffett的投资表现是有缺陷的。淡马锡并不是上市的股票。 进一步更新： Buffett的2008年终报告[链接] 实际上公报了在过去40年根据帐面价值计算的回报。简单的计算1999-2008将给您6%至7%的帐面价值回报。  Read More →

From The Malaysian Insider The simple fact is this – Umno has given up on some of its bickering allies within the Barisan Nasional. Hence the dominant party in the ruling coalition has seized on the idea of a unity government with political rivals PAS. It might not lead to anything but Umno knows its allies are too weak to protest. And on the flip side as Lim Kit Siang suspects, the illusion of unity talks can sow discord within the opposition Pakatan Rakyat pact and scatter them like a cat amongst birds. That is already happening with three-term PAS No. 2 Nasharuddin Mat Isa vilified for being involved in clandestine Malay unity talks last year and being receptive to further talks with Umno. Party president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, who tossed the idea, has also not been spared but he remains powerful and has packed his central committee with allies to prevent a large-scale revolt. Within PAS, the idea of unity talks with Umno is all but dead and buried, as party secretary Datuk Mustafa Ali affirmed in the past week. Yet, Umno is pushing the idea of unity talks on the back of pessimism by several party think tanks that privately admit they cannot count on non-Malay support in any future elections within the peninsula. It has already lost all five by-elections in the peninsula since Election 2008 with another defeat looming in Manek Urai. That leaves the party to bank on the Malay electorate, which contributed a majority of the two million votes that returned 79 Umno MPs to parliament in Election 2008. But with 5.7 million eligible Malay voters in the 12th general election and 3.5 million Umno members, it failed to capture most of its base support. And the shrinking non-Malay support is expected to evaporate further, Umno politicians say, noting the discord between MCA president Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat and deputy Datuk Seri Chua Soi Lek; Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu’s continued leadership of a weakened MIC that has left the party bereft of solid second-echelon leaders; and a budding rift in Gerakan, which just suspended little-known vice-president Huan Cheng Guan, the former Batu Kawan MP. Adding to their pessimism is the open split in the tiny PPP where president Datuk M. Kayveas is in a public spat with Senator T. Murugiah, who now claims the party presidency. This has led to Umno flirting and courting the Islamist party for the hearts and minds of the Malays. “We can’t count on our allies and on non-Malay support, so we might as well stick to the Malay ground,” an Umno warlord who is involved in one informal party think tank told The Malaysian Insider. The think tank is one of several Umno has set up in the aftermath of its dismal outing in Election 2008, tasked with regaining Malay support that evaporated to PAS and its allies. In a recent meeting, the think tank members discussed strategies to take back support from the Malay heartland such as Kedah which is held by PAS. The Islamist party also controls Kelantan and until recently, led the Perak government until the February 5 political putsch that brought it to Barisan Nasional. Both party president Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and his deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin have come round to the idea of unity talks with PAS. It has also received the support of other senior party leaders in an attempt to ensure Umno remains at the helm of the federal government. Ironically, Najib is the son of Tun Abdul Razak Hussein who expanded the original three-party Alliance into the Barisan Nasional in the aftermath of the May 13 riots, bringing in all parties except DAP and PSRM into a national coalition government. Would Najib be the one to repudiate such a coalition in favour of a narrow Malay agenda and ensure Umno remains in power? An Umno leader shook his head but said it would depend on the Barisan Nasional component parties in the peninsula resolving their internal differences to work as a team for the next polls. “The allies in Sabah and Sarawak are okay. The problem is in the peninsula,” he told The Malaysian Insider. However, not all in Umno are in favour of working with PAS. Influential former party president Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has opposed the idea, saying it was a bad idea to have a government comprising only Malays and jeopardise Umno’s ties with its allies. The former prime minister said yesterday the government needed to explain what their objective was and if they were willing to leave their “friends” to form a government which only comprised the Malays. “I don’t think it’s a good idea,” Dr Mahathir said succinctly. The DAP leader Lim Kit Siang noted that Muhyiddin’s eagerness for a Umno-PAS unity government  discredited and mocked Najib’s 1 Malaysia concept,  saying it was “undoing 52 years of Malaysian nation-building by five previous Prime Ministers”. He gave two reasons for Muhyiddin’s support for the talks. “Firstly, the top Umno leadership sees in the present political scenario a golden opportunity to divide PAS and split the Pakatan Rakyat; and secondly, Umno continues to play the role of the political hegemony in the Barisan Nasional, with the other BN component parties whether MCA, MIC, Gerakan, SUPP, PBS totally irrelevant as mere puppets, digits and ciphers,” Lim said. But all of Umno’s pushing could come to nought as early as this week when the PAS leadership begins a series of meetings to quell the budding split in party ranks over the unity talks. They are expected to reaffirm support for the Pakatan Rakyat. Yet, that won’t stop Umno from trying to tempt PAS into cooperating for Malay unity. And keep their grip on power. Source: The Malaysian Insider  Read More →